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21 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

If he had to put a note down... the Scorpion. Not so much suspicion, but the fact that not many eyes were on that one. Scimon Tlag, he knew he wasn't the most helpful around. He had a business to maintain, and he didn't have the same attitude about togetherness that Kellert or Dyring had. He could understand it, of course. But Scorpion he had trouble understanding their trust. Maybe he needed to look earlier. Maybe not. But it would do for now.

What... ah. The Penguin. Strange name, but met a strange fellow. A Jester? That... really didn't explain much. But they were trusted by the circle, and the circle wasn't much of a circle anymore as much as a... a broken circle. Tlag scratched his head, but a better analogy was evading him. Regardless, the Coinshot Saboteur had been a part of it, so they were spreading information faster than a cavalry charge. Penguin was alright. It seemed they had some questions for Scimon Tlag too. Well... maybe he could help answer them. It was a bit too late tonight, but the Penguin would be here tomorrow unless something was terribly wrong. He could have voted, it was true... rusts, those first few days were so long ago. The more recent ones it wouldn't have made a difference. 

For voting Gorilla D1 and Chameleon D5. Penguin got scanned as a village Thug by Swan who's a confirmed villager. The only way for Penguin to be evil is if Meerkat is lying.

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Day 7 - All The Light We Cannot See

the world was going dark, hazy at the edges

like it did that day when Kellehrt was four and Uncle Gaman’d cut himself with the scythe and bled across the village square and his ma’d made him sit down and rest his head between his knees

and he remembered the way the world was going dark and hazy

and fear the world was going, that they were leaving him and he opened his mouth to beg them not to go, not to leave him, to stay with him, and his ma stroked his hair and said, “Shhh, breathe,” and he

breathed

in and out

and he tried to focus on

the rhythm of his breathing

like the hammering of metal on metal the way his pa did in the forge

and there was movement, it caught his eye, a flash of movement in a world gone strangely still and he saw a silkworm making its slow way across the dry grass, undulating

and it seemed as though the entirety of the world could be borne by that worm

making its slow patient way across the grass

as though nothing was there to waylay it, no birds, no creatures, nothing but a worm and the destination it had in mind

the world was going dark, hazy at the edges with the rust veneer of spilled blood drying on a scythe’s edge

but the worm moved

all the same the worm moved

and Kellehrt breathed

that day he found Warmmha, or maybe Warmmha found him

he did not know still does not know

the obligators say the ways of God are mysterious even though they mean the Lord Ruler even though the Lord Ruler is a distant figure that does not live within him

not the way Warmmha does

within Kellehrt

guiding him

and Warmmha had said he had to stop them, because there was evil brewing in the heart of Tyrian Falls, as unthinkable as it was, evil that wore the face of friends and neighbours, and those who had lived

in Tyrian Falls for years and years since their father’s fathers and their father’s father’s fathers

the way Kellehrt had

he’d grown up and moved out to a small forge in Luthadel

he was so proud of starting his own shop, a way of leaving his own mark on the world, crafting with his own two hands, his maker’s mark impressed into each and every order that left his shop

except the nails

vanity to stamp a maker’s mark into nails and in any case it was always the nails that were overlooked, small and cheap and made by the dozen

the first thing an apprentice learned to forge—that he learned to forge, his father working the fire—was to make nails after nails after nails until in his sleep he dreamed

the world was made of nails held together by them

you took out a nail and things came apart

that was the unweaving, the unravelling

that Warmmha had warned him about because the world was coming apart, fraying at the edges and not even the silken threads of the god could

stitch together Tyrian Falls or Luthadel when others were determined to tear things down until everything flew apart into primordial chaos

he always imagined chaos to be like slag, like the blackened chunk of molten metal when he’d made a mess of things in the forge and his father looking over his shoulder shook his head

he always knew how to fix things, his father did, and in his own way, maybe, his father was a maker like Kellehrt had been like Warmmha was the god of makers

he heard the tolling of the bell, the village bell, the bell-note of the forge-hammer on metal felt the heat of the flames on his skin

flame-and-garnet the sunset, just Dyring, the old innkeeper, and himself, two old souls, weary and ragged beyond their time, sitting on the porch of the inn and it was a beautiful sunset, the sort of sunset that set the leaves of the distant trees ablaze in the hours before the mists seeped out into the coming night

and Dyring spoke and Kellehrt listened because maybe there was horror in the world, and maybe there was beauty, and death would come for them anyway

the way it had for Wark, the day Kellehrt had heard and they’d fetched him of course because someone had to identify the body and Kellehrt looked down at the cold corpse of his only friend and Warmmha was saying, we return to the water, or maybe it was Uncle Gaman, showing him how to launch paper boats in the quiet brook

we return to the water

from water we are born to water we return as breath becomes air

and Dyring was saying, we die anyway

i know, said Kellehrt, an intimation of mortality as he looked at his hands and tried to let out his frustration because Locke Tekiel had died and Kellehrt had been too late

a leap of faith that, prodigious, the feeling of gazing into the nobleman’s eyes and that instant recognition, the knowledge—you have to trust someone, Warmmha chided, and the gut-deep knowledge that they both wanted the murders to stop, to root out the evil in Tyrian Falls, that God commanded, and God had called him, and so Kellehrt answered

because the imperative, even now, was to create; the instinct was to preserve, to save

as Locke Tekiel scribbled accounts and the world danced anew behind Kellehrt’s eyes—connections, old ones, and new ones alike, tangled skeins of blood and guilt and evil and ignorance that tied the different villagers of Tyrian Falls together, running as deep as shame and family and

let me be the villain, he said, to Warmmha, because it was a desperate plan, hatched as he knelt on the ground and wept because he had only ever meant to protect, and hadn’t been able to stop them in time, and Henry had left, and perhaps that was the failing, the knowledge of his own deep inadequacy and unworthiness—that he’d never saved her, not truly, that no one could ever, really and truly be saved

and that hadn’t saved Locke Tekiel either, sprawled out and dead

let me be the villain, he said to Warmmha, because he had been the villain when he returned anyway, the son of the village blacksmith, the man who’d taken his axe that bloody day and hewed in the village square and he felt the blood staining his soul as though he’d wielded the axe himself, as though guilt and sin and shame could be inherited, let me protect them, let them spend their contempt on me

and so he did, he denounced and damned himself as one of the murderers, one of the Spiked, and then he burned tin and come in, Dyring said, and his door was open, the battered door, coat of paint peeling in places, i will give you shelter until the day is done

and so Kellehrt went in, because he was weary, because the storm had spent its fury

and he was in the forge again, the old forge, the family forge that he was to have inherited from his father and his father from his father’s father, and so on and so on, a long line of blood stretching back into the distant past because the world was woven by these connections, these meetings of flesh and bloodlines

and his father was working the metal, as though he hadn’t aged a day

as though he hadn’t died, Kellehrt hadn’t been there but he’d imagined it, one of the village watch taking a staff and knocking his father down on his knees with blood still on his hands

why did you do it? he had asked his father, again and again, at the midnight hour in Luthadel when the forge-fire in his small shop was nothing but banked embers because it cost too much to keep the fire going all night but at least it was warm

but he didn’t understand, didn’t understand what sort of unravelling had gone on within his father, what sort of knots had snapped within Athan, had made him take up that old axe, had sent him on that lethal stride through the cobbled streets and pavingstones of Tyrian Falls where everybody knew old Athan and old Athan’s boy and old Athan’s father, where if you asked,

yes, old Athan, I knew him, the baker might say, he made the grate for my fireplace

yes, old Athan, his boy skipped stones with my girl

and so on

and so on

and so on

an endless string of connections, weaving in and out of them, twining about them, binding them together in some great net where you couldn’t help but know—cause-and-effect—and you couldn’t help but be known

relentlessly

mercilessly

with all the scrutiny of the village gossips

everything

but not why, not understanding

even now as an older man he didn’t understand why Athan had done it, what had made Athan do it, what had made Athan scrawl words of Ruin in blood on the old shack what had made Athan kill what had made his father not-his-father

why did you do it, he asked his father

hammering on the metal as he must have worked that axe on that bloody day

his father smiled and shrugged

haplessly, artlessly

as though he had not made the choice, as though you didn’t argue with Ruin, with capitals, the way his father spoke of that, of the coming apart of things, the same way Kellehrt had listened when Warmhha spoke deep within him

just as you cannot ask me all the questions, neither can you give me all the answers

and knowing that, admitting that futility

craving meaning where there is no meaning to be found only senseless unravelling only senseless that will swallow you up like a black hole if you permit it too if you gaze too long too deep into its heart

he set down the hammer and turned his back on the old forge

pushed his way through the worn wooden door and then he was in his shop in Luthadel, hanging his burned blacksmith’s apron on the hook at Wark’s urging

Lord Ruler, says Wark, you have to learn to live a little

before the fires consume Luthadel, before it all goes to hell anyway

he was happy, for a time, in Luthadel, a small shop near the industrial district, near the canneries and the Ironstacks where he made nails and tools and horseshoes and all manner of things though never thieves tools never that he didn’t think he could meet his father’s eyes, imagined in his head, if he did that, didn’t think Warmhha would’ve approved

but then Luthadel went up in flames and then a number of other things happened and step by step, they had led him back, inexorably, as though Warmmha was guiding him

back to sleepy old Tyrian Falls which he thought

at that time, shouldering his inheritance, his pack of blacksmith’s tools over a shoulder

that he was leaving for good, leaving all of that dust behind him forever

how Warmmha must’ve chuckled when Kellehrt returned

to Tyrian Falls, to the small homestead on the outskirts for long seasons where his uncle had once lived, once worked the soil

where the last and the first of the light was grey

fading like solar bones in ribs of light unbroken through the cottage windows

on the tea-stained sill where Kellehrt took his tea and leaned on the sill and breathed

scent of wood dust and dry grass in the cool breeze

another silken thread returning home, another strand connected to another, and another wave in the pond echoing still as though he was a child by the brook tossing stones into it, watching them

skip

and sink

watching the waves move towards the edges of the brook, one after another, and then fade

the wave returns to the water as it always was, as it always will be

world without end

as Warmmha wills it

everything, says Wark, as though he’s in one of his moods, is made of connections,

don’t you think?

Kellehrt son of Athan son of Farkas son of Tarvin in a long unbroken line of blacksmiths in Tyrian’s Falls, turned farmer, for he has been a great many things in this life

lets the greylight fall about him for the last time

fades into the light, slipping away, returning to that distant shore

where Warmmha is calling

once said Warmmha, or maybe it was Wark, or maybe thinks Kellehrt in wonder, there is no difference, there is a fragment of God in all of us

once said Wark, there was only ever darkness, so if you think about it that way i guess the light is winning



Salmon Meerkat was a Village Tineye!

Day 7 has begun and will end in 47.5 hours.

Player List
1. Amber Vulture Vanilla Villager
2. Amethyst Scorpion - Sidor, newly resigned Hazekiller (Guardsman)
3. Azure Mouse
4. Charcoal Hyena Spiked Mistborn
5. Chartreuse Penguin - Aethex (Jester)
6. Coral Swan - Su (Jaist) Village Mistborn
7. Emerald Falcon Village Lurcher
8. Fuchsia Ostrich - Freddie (Glutton)
9. Ivory Dragonfly (Unlucky) (Replaced)
10. Magenta Albatross (Past Lives)
11. Mauve Crocodile (Gambler) Vanilla Villager
12. Melon Dingo - Scimon Tlag (Merchant)
13. Mint Heron - Tivend Elons (Casanova)
14. Onyx Flamingo (Gossip/Casanova)
15. Opal Lion Vanilla Villager
16. Oxblood Beagle Spiked Coinshot
17. Pearl Chameleon - Var (Two-Faced) Spiked
18. Plum Rhinoceros (Prophet-ish)
19. Quartz Zebra (Drunk/Jaist)
20. Saffron Iguana (Helpful Heckler) Village Soother
21. Salmon Meerkat - Kellehrt Village Tineye
22. Sapphire Elephant
23. Scarlet Octopus (Neat, Extremist Priest) Village Tineye
24. Sunburst Toucan Village Thug
25. Turquoise Gorilla (Game Show Host) Spiked
26. Violet Axolotl - Dyring (Neat Innkeeper)

Tineye Messages

Quote

tineye0.png.9eaaaf1554a8afaa725da70c7f1d1935.png

I regret to break my usual style of pictorial messages but I think it is important to send this argument where it will be seen in the morning. In the worst case, I do not die, I can make and defend my argument in the flesh. I can live with a little embarrassment :P But there is a decent chance the Spiked will go for the certain kill and worry about Zebra another time. So I send you my final argument, and my thoughts in the form of this last Tineye message.

Have a Wormmon and a meme in order to feel a bit more secure that it is me, kel, your local Village Tineye.

tineye1.png.da48b3558f86b8044aa013a9127de69c.png

D1:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (2): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>
Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
Violet Axlotl (2): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon

Look at this snapshot. This is around the time Amber Vulture pulls off Ocho

The next vote right after Vulture is Heron going onto Axl.

The next vote after Heron's is Flamingo shifting to Crocodile, but not captured here.

What happens?

Let's take stock. Crocodile and Iguana are live trains. Cham has just been saved, nearly. Hyena and Gorilla are both under threat. And Heron just neatly slots in here by throwing a playstyle vote against Axl, creating yet another two-vote train, at a time when the Cham train could be easily re-ignited, or the Hyena train could take off, and Gorilla is under threat. I don't like it; it's splinter train tactics again and I strongly disagree that Elims would just tie the vote because splinter train tactics have happened a lot in recent games. It's a valid means of diluting the vote.

This was slightly under three hours to rollover, and we now know Elims act late on D1. Axl has pointed that out and he was right about Cham. This was also true in LG82.

Heron also caught the missing Swan vote D2, when most people didn't. Why? If he's so inactive because he's short of time, why does he have the time to track votes so carefully? And if he's got this much time, why has he said little helpful or of substance in thread?

His votes synch up too nicely with Hyena's targets. Apart from D1 Axl which IMO looks like an Elim looking for a Villager-only train to bring to life without drawing too much heat, he hits Flamingo D2, at a time when Gorilla v. Iguana was coming into contention again. Hyena also later tries to draw heat to Flamingo and we have the Ocho NK N2. And then he goes for Ostrich D3 - again, another player Hyena tried to both kill and discredit.

Then he claims he checked out because there was a confirmed Elim - really? Why would Falcon or Hyena be confirmed? Hyena fought us until late in the cycle, and while we were insisting Falcon was likely E, Falcon was by no means confirmed E and everyone acknowledged it.

D5 in my opinion was a distancing, half-hearted vote, dashed off without too much force. You could make a more forceful case against Beagle but he declined to. Why? It doesn't give him much Villager credit because we know that on C5, Beagle believed that both Stick and I would intervene if the lynch came too close to her. In other words, it's a perfunctory show vote that doesn't matter at all.

I don't read Heron's D6 post as Village by the way. It's emotional but offers nothing of substance and the handwringing about being the game's worst villager makes no sense - it's fluff. Many of us have had bad reads as well. What is he doing about them but then ignoring his Beagle read to conveniently take the Rhino side-train?

D6. On the one day it matters, and the one day he gets to act on his suspicions of Beagle, he declines. We get an immensely handwringing performative post about not being that good a Villager (lol try me bro, look at me in LG82, I was the resident Village disaster) and then he votes Rhino. When he has previously expressed suspicions of Beagle, and when Beagle can be voted on and actually killed, he hesitates. Instead, he now thinks Rhino is extremely Evil for surviving (so did Albatross, and Heron never onced voiced suspicions of him), and for voting on Falcon (so did Beagle, so why aren't you voting on her?)

I have always said this. Talk is cheap. Players can say whomever they suspect. It's not that we should ignore that. But a player's actions are extremely powerful because they directly impact a player's team and therefore show where their priorities are. When given the chance to press Beagle C6 by voting on her, Heron declines. Heron votes for Rhino. And this despite extensive handwringing on Beagle's Evil! When given previously the chance (D5) to vote for Alb - a player who, like Rhino, has a suspicious vote and a survival from a Coinshot kill, Heron declines. 

So here is my question. Where is the evolution in his thinking? Where are the signs something has made him reconsider?

I submit there's nothing because it's convenience voting. Because E!Coinshot Beagle >>> E!Smoker Heron, so Beagle has no issue voting for Heron, and Heron can't self-vote and so just picks the convenient Rhino train hoping to save Beagle.

Actions show a player's true motivations. When push comes to shove, who do you kill? Who do you spare?

Beagle was a Spiked Coinshot in with the Village trust. She was the Spiked team's best hope at turning the tide, meaning we should expect significant resistance to her lynch. Where does this come from?

D6:

Quote

Heron (2): Axl, kel
Alb (1): Beagle
Rhino (2): Ostrich<1>, Zebra, Beagle
Beagle (2): Penguin, Ostrich<2>

Penguin has been scanned Village Thug by Swan N3. She is Confirmed Good. Penguin inaugurates the Beagle train. (Note that Beagle opens an Alb train in response to Heron pressure from Axl. Curious...)

Ostrich retracts to go from Rhino to Beagle. Perfectly reasonable, in light of Penguin's arguments.

Zebra turns the Rhino train live again. I don't sus him strongly for this and I should have made my thoughts on Zebra clear last Night in thread. Beagle seconds the Rhino vote but Beagle is Evil so this should be worrisome. We now have a three-way Heron-Rhino-Beagle tie.

And this is the moment at which the miraculous happens.

Mint Heron offers a significant amount of hand-wringing and votes Rhino. For no apparent bloody reason.

Quote

Heron (2): Axl, kel
Alb (1): Beagle
Rhino (3): Ostrich<1>, Zebra, Beagle, Heron(!!!!)
Beagle (2): Penguin, Ostrich<2>

After beating the wardrums for Beagle last cycle, when it didn't matter, suddenly when Heron's and Beagle's lives are in danger, Heron conveniently votes for Rhino instead. 

I don't buy it and I've explained why. Better Heron than Beagle, the Spiked Coinshot, in the eyes of the Spiked. Better Rhino than either of them.

In other words, Heron tells us he suspects Beagle is still Evil, gives us an obscene amount of handwringing about this, and then proceeds to vote alongside his suspect.

Really?

I am Kasimir, Ironborn, brother to Wyrm, and the Last Son of House Urbain. I am Kasimir of the Wyrm Inquisition, and I have released myself from anonymity to denounce a traitor in our midst! Mint Heron! I name you Spiked and traitor to your neighbours in Tyrian Falls! I name you a liar! I name you Evil! I challenge you to the juris macto, and may the crows feast on the unjust!

PMs are open.

Edited by Elbereth
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PMs still being open suggests that the elim Tineye who sent in the message N1 is still around. A mistborn would only have a 1/64 chance of getting tin again, but I guess it could also be a Mistborn who got bronze N1 while Hyena got tin making it more plausible that a mistborn could get tin. Heron claimed Smoker D6 and according to Axl was indeed Smoked. A Coinshot/Mistborn/Smoker/Tineye/Regular/Regular is still the most likely option for elim Heron, and if Heron happens to be a Mistborn we'll find out anyway. Mint Heron.

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rip kas

leave the arena now and rest

youve earned it

 

had already decided from the night six discussion that heron did seem the best place to start so particularly with kases argument here gonna throw down a vote on heron

edit

thanks gms for the rules confirmation in the tags

Edited by Ivory Dragonfly
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56 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

It would be strange for an villager to send a message N1, never do so again, and then never tell anyone about it.

Hmm yes it would. So whose claim are we missing? Mouse and Dingo? I assume you're a Regular, Scorp? 

Edit: I forgot Ocho was a Village Tineye as well hmmm, yes it's likely the last Tineye is evol

Edited by Fuchsia Ostrich
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Bah, I keep going back and forth on Heron. Just a gut feeling that there's something not right. But I'm gonna take a leap, because Meerkat did that with me for Beagle. Also, the thing I found most suspicious was the under-explained vote on Beagle in D5 and over-explained suspicion on Beagle but vote on Rhino in D6. 

Mint Heron

Also, I don't have access to laptop for the next 2 days, so can't make long quote posts, but I'll be here to reply to stuff. 

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Dyring was sweeping up broken glass when someone outside called up to him the news about Kellehrt. At first, he couldn't believe it. Kel had been a rock in Tyrian Falls, when so many others had been like ash in the wind. Up early each day at the farm, always the last to leave the field, and never too busy to chill on the porch enjoying the night air. The turmoil the Spiked had caused, if anything, had reinforced Kel as a pillar of the community. His thoughts and analysis had been crucial to the discovery of practically all the Spiked that had been uncovered so far, and his billboard had kept the worst of the nightly graffiti off of Dyring's Inn. 

Dyring's thoughts turned to their last evening together, out on the inn's porch, and that's when it really hit him that Kel was gone. The dustpan tumbled from his hands, spilling glass back across the floorboards, as Dyring stared out the window at the empty chair. The chair that Elly used to sit in, that Kel had taken up in his effort to ease Dyring's grief, that now represented an emptiness in Dyring which would never fully heal.

His cleaning forgotten, Dyring leaned against the wall and held a hand to his forehead. Tyrian Falls was coming apart around them, and Dyring was coming apart in the middle. Even if the townsfolk saved those remaining from the Spiked, Dyring wasn't sure that it would be saved for him. At some point the pain and loss were too great to redeem with the death of the Spiked, and whether Dyring had crossed that line with Kel's death, or with his own participation in the daily mobbing of suspects, he was adrift now. Somewhere in the last week, Tyrian Falls had stopped being home, and had become a bloodstained battlefield, too poisoned for normal life.

The Spiked had to die. They would pay tenfold for the death of Kellehrt, a hundredfold for the measures they had forced the townsfolk into. And then... Dyring didn't know, except that nothing short of a miracle would keep him from leaving.

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Well, this is a bandwagon. Sadly, I'm still a Villager, so this is wasting time. I was honestly expecting to be Coinshot, except it turns out that the Elims were the ones with the Coinshot. That made my role analysis complete nonsense, so my vote on Gorilla over Beagle was wrong as well. I'm now slightly more suspicious of Zebra, but that's all I got. I'll just vote for Mint Heron, put up my shoes, and relax in the dead doc.

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7 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Well, this is a bandwagon. Sadly, I'm still a Villager, so this is wasting time. I was honestly expecting to be Coinshot, except it turns out that the Elims were the ones with the Coinshot. That made my role analysis complete nonsense, so my vote on Gorilla over Beagle was wrong as well. I'm now slightly more suspicious of Zebra, but that's all I got. I'll just vote for Mint Heron, put up my shoes, and relax in the dead doc.

Zebra seems to be a Lurcher, which, given the presence of an elim Coinshot, seems to be a role that makes more sense for the village to have, especially since it’s a bit unlikely that the village would ever get more than a single kill this game. It could be a GM troll thing, but I’m currently leaning against that.

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I'll put my vote on Heron for obvious reasons, but if they turn out to be a villager, or there happens to be another elim, we should have discussions over our next move. I honestly have to say that I'm sus of elephant based on their lack of activity and claim to have an important role/action that they didn't use.

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34 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Which of the D1 Tineye messages are accounted for? I guess the first is Swan, second is Kat, and the last is Octo (from “Captain Oc”)? The third could be Hyena, if the elims have a Seeker or second Mistborn. That might be worth thinking about more if Heron flips village Smoker.

The one that explicitly claims to be a mistborn is the once not accounted for 

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it wouldnt be unreasonable for a mystery mistborn to have rolled tineye day one and not rolled coinshot or tineye since before finally getting a repeat tineye for cycle seven i suppose

the question of whether theres a mystery mistborn tineye would presumably be solved when day eight turns up if were assuming theres only one more tineye or mistborn with tin remaining to allow us pm privs

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29 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

it wouldnt be unreasonable for a mystery mistborn to have rolled tineye day one and not rolled coinshot or tineye since before finally getting a repeat tineye for cycle seven i suppose

The chances of a mistborn getting repeat tineye N6 are at best 1/24, which is not a great chance.

@Mint Heron, did you smoke yourself N5 or D6 such that a riot on D6 wouldn't have moved your vote?

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1 hour ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Which of the D1 Tineye messages are accounted for? I guess the first is Swan, second is Kat, and the last is Octo (from “Captain Oc”)? The third could be Hyena, if the elims have a Seeker or second Mistborn. That might be worth thinking about more if Heron flips village Smoker.

33 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

it wouldnt be unreasonable for a mystery mistborn to have rolled tineye day one and not rolled coinshot or tineye since before finally getting a repeat tineye for cycle seven i suppose

the question of whether theres a mystery mistborn tineye would presumably be solved when day eight turns up if were assuming theres only one more tineye or mistborn with tin remaining to allow us pm privs

We did get a claim for the D1 Mistborn message (the first one) but they claimed they did not roll Tin last night, which means that PMs are open because of some other Tineye who hasn't sent a single AM or yet another Mistborn who rolled tin N6.

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On 1/22/2022 at 5:33 AM, Elbereth said:

both Stick and I

bro y u do dis xD

6 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

We did get a claim for the D1 Mistborn message (the first one) but they claimed they did not roll Tin last night, which means that PMs are open because of some other Tineye who hasn't sent a single AM or yet another Mistborn who rolled tin N6.

I can confirm; this player has provided their complete rolls history and unfortunately not much of it is confirmable apart from the N1 tineye claim (if anybody wants to refute this feel free to PM). And yeah, the existence of PMs this turn has got to do with either of the scenarios Ostrich has laid out, or this player claiming mistborn had lied about what metal they rolled this cycle. Personally, I think I believe them, but could go either way. 

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