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21 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Are you wondering why elims went for Swan instead of Penguin? Or are you asking why they went for Swan instead of you? Because I think it's the simplest explanation, that Swan's the next highest trusted player after you. And even if they did think you were bluffing about Lurcher#1's targets, there is still Falcon's Lurch to worry about, because they knew she was village. I don't think there was any communication about Falcon's Lurch but I think it's fair to assume that they thought she'd target you. So, Occam's Razor and all, it's likely they wanted to avoid a Lurched attack and went for the 2nd highest trusted read.

No actually. I'm thinking aloud about the Coinshot because we've been treating the Coinshot as a roleclear and with more info about the protective roles available in this game that are purportedly Village, I thought it was a good time to reassess because roleclearing is always inherently risky. 

See: Fifth the Seeker. 

Edited to add: @Fuchsia Ostrich Bro, should add you're expecting me to be a bit more organised than I am :P When I make arguments, I am. But I also have a habit of treating the thread and PMs as my personal thought scratch table. Meaning I will throw out anything that comes to my mind in the hopes of getting insights from the thread. These are all just thoughts that occur to me - IMO, Falcon's flip should be a clear sign to re-assess our view of the gamestate and to refresh our reads.

I get the strong reaction to Swan's death and the impulse to consider if there are any leaks - Cham PMed me along those lines. I've said what I can about how we handled Swan's role, and the only thing I kept slipping was honestly Swan's identity which the PM people both found hilarious and Fifth threatened to use against me as ammunition :P I've nearly slipped Swan's name here a couple times too.

My current view - after having explored further leak avenues - is that I don't think so. I think the groups as they stand are solid and I don't see a leak, so any call to revise trusts should not substantively affect my most robust reads.

And as you point out and as I've flagged to Penguin, Swan's death is not in any way extraordinary, so I don't think there is a pro tanto call for radical revision either. But having done that anyway and not seeing leak avenues, I expect to focus and reconcile my revised reads from Falcon's flip with the structure of my reads from last night. After I've submitted my homework...

As one last point: I deliberately lied and tried to pass Penguin off to the thread and to you guys as Mistborn. I felt that it was important to clear the air. If this had helped Swan live, we would not be having this discussion. But since Swan is dead, it's important everyone is on the same page, and to that extent, the fact I told different players different things needs to be laid out in case people accidentally draw the wrong conclusion from my lying spree.

I know this lying spree is, again, not something in line with my usual player meta but having already pulled off a kasyana gambit this game, I feel like this is a lesser charge :P 

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
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14 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Okay I'm still confused about your thoughts smh. How does possibility of e!Seeker link with the increase in possibility of e!Coinshot?

think ur confusin 2 (or more) separate convos bro

tho i admit i haven't made it easier 4 u =P

penguin thinks there's e!Seeker - i disagree; no sign of Smokers & usually v has protection for power roles from e!Seekers

a few people have pmed me asking about a leak and/or e!Coinshot & imo there's prima facie case 2 consider b/c 3 V!Thugs + 2V!Lurchers + 1 V!Coinshot can seem a bit much

too much protective role padding if u know what i mean - gms have to build balance into the distro so the more we know about the distro the better

+ we have Word of El-Fifth that 2 V!Thugs are conf V!Thugs and 1 V!Lurcher is conf V!Lurcher so there's a prima facie discomfort there if we assume V!Coinshot

it can be worked out imo (don't forget Lurchers are nerfed in this game - standard Tyrian Lurchers have no restrictions on protecting the same target multiple nights in a row so two Tyrian Lurchers would unbalance things immensely - i could see two AG8!Lurchers due to the nerf on V side with a potential third E!Lurcher who simply kept quiet like Kas did in LG5 b/c no incentive to reveal now)

but i agree w/ your reasoning no E!Seeker needed to explain Swan kill & use that to talk about how imo, Coinshot has to be V

b/c if we take it as true that Hyena wanted to go up against Vulture & only sent in the kill on the suspicion Vulture was V!Mistborn

then Elims didn't know Vulture was regular & Swan Mistborn

but on N3, I created a PM group to broker contact between Vulture, Swan, Coinshot, and myself 

so Elim team would not have made this mistake

i.e. Coinshot v. unlikely to be E.

so im agreeing w/ u abt E!Seeker but I think ur reasoning also separately allows us to infer that Coinshot is pretty solidly V

so roleclearing CS is not too uncomfortable a move

does this help

>edit: to be clear, coinshot, swan, and vulture agreed to out themselves 2 each other so Spiked wld've known if coinshot (or fwiw, myself) were compromised

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
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Sigh. I was supposed to be kel this round :/

i was supposed to sit back and chill and troll and occasionally add sarkastic commentary & lie outrageously about my SE play history and keep on calling Fifth out

i was supposed to be the god of trolling this game. i had it all worked out. nice chill personality, like wilson's mad watcher schtick but chaos god kel to let my troll streak out. it's done wonders for me when gaming. wyrm commented on how chill i was when we went ham against the ai.

But y'all don't need kel right now, do you. You need the person kel is impersonating. So I guess I'm going to have to find him :/

even if i kind of really don't want to.

Simplified Re-Look At Voting

Spoiler

These jumped out at me when I was updating my spreadsheet. For clarity, I use green for confirmed flips, and highlights for high confidence reads. Grey highlights denote players of interest. This is a simplified relook at the voting because IMO, it doesn't take shifts into account, and especially late shifts in voting patterns are telling because rollover pressure and team interests dominate, as does fog-of-war.

D1:

Quote

Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron

I tentatively agree that I could be persuaded to think Flamingo is Evil, but I also feel that her PM panic and her early vote on Gorilla and Hyena trying to sell a Flamingo CW make her more V than E in my eyes. I also think that Ostrich's commitment to seeing Hyena lynched from an early D2 suspicion that Hyena had biased his ISO condemning Iguana and exonerating Gorilla through to C3 (in PMs with me, but IIRC he may have also said something in thread) and the fact Hyena was trying to push both him and Vulture as the CW - all of these to me read more V than E. So if I mark them as is currently true in my moderate V reads, I'm left with the conclusion that most of the Crocodile wagon was Village. Which is...not impossible, but is odd.

And then as Axl points out: where are the Elims then? We know where Gorilla is, and we know where Hyena is, but in my view, it is damnably odd that most of them did nothing at all, when Gorilla came under pressure, especially with a late vote from Scorp.

So okay, while we look at this, let's get a list of non-voters: <Amber Vulture, Melon Dingo, Plum Rhino (NAI; inactive), Sunburst Toucan, Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly, Quartz Zebra, Sapphire Elephant>

Standout thoughts:

  • We can't assume all the Elims are in the inactives or non-voters. We have two Elims in the voting at the moment, and assuming a six or seven Spiked team, all six of our remaining inactives can't be Spiked. But it also seems rather tendentious to assume that - I'd say - more than half of them are Evil.
     
  • The main issue with the inactives or the non-voters is here we have an Elim under threat (Gorilla) and the trains are close. It makes no sense that the Elims would be this chill about Gorilla nearly dying unless (suppose) - A. They had vote manip (which points in my view largely to Axl or one of the others who didn't claim but is a Soother), and/or B. They had a good risk appetite, which is trivially true since Hyena was on the team, and the trains at the point of rollover were diluted 4/4/4.
     
  • Also worth noting that Axl's Rioting claim is consistent with what is known and his voting preferences, but as Iguana claimed his own Soothing action D2, it is not that difficult to discover a Rioting action consistent with that due to the known Soother-Rioter interaction. This would require Evil Axl attempt to Soothe a vote on Gorilla or to Riot it off to say, Crocodile or Iguana. This would also require that one of Scorpion, Swan, and Octopus be Smoked D1. Smoking is first on OoA so if a Village Smoker (has to be Village, ex hypothesi) submits a Smoke order on one of the three of them, then this would prevent Axl from Rioting them. This though is very odd to me: why would a Village Smoker Smoke them? If you did, could you please claim the action to me in a PM? This would be helpful in puzzling out D1. In the absence of Smokesign, I have to say Axl's actions appear to check out. (Unless Scorpion is a Smoker I guess, who didn't turn off her Coppercloud.) But Evil Scorpion who keeps on Smoking and stacks a last minute vote on Gorilla and Evil Axl is a bit too paranoid and convoluted, even for the Last Son of House Urbain.
     
  • tldr from the previous para; Evil Axl entails likely Scorp, Swan, or Oct Smoked; request any Smoking action claimants from D1 to PM me to sort this out anonymously. Possible that Scorp is a Smoker, but if Scorp is a Smoker, this gets more kayana because we are exploring an Evil Axl hypothesis, and Evil Smoker Axl joining a teammate on another teammate is even wilder. So Axl and Scorp don't read E/E to me.
     
  • Light V on Scorp for the last minute vote on Gorilla. One Evil Scorp but V Axl scenario I can think of is that Scorp votes on Gorilla as distancing, and then a Soother teammate drops the Soothe on Axl (whose vote already disappears anyway.) How plausible is this? I don't know. Barring significant vote manip in the landscape (but is this a reasonable assumption for an Elim team to make?) - Gorilla has a 1/3 chance of dying anyway, and the Soothe should've dropped P(Gorilla dies) to 0. I feel that's a risk some teams are alright with taking for some distancing. Even if it's too extreme for my blood. I feel as though an E Scorp commitment would explain apparent Evil apathy - because why are Dingo et al chilling in thread when a teammate is endangered? E Scorp requires E Soother (or E Rioter), which would explain Dingo et al not caring about the vote landscape (I suppose.) I don't know. I guess I'm thinking aloud again but apparently Evil apathy - this is a puzzle to me.
     
  • In absence of other Smoking actions, I'm more committed to V Axl than V Scorp.
     
  • I recognise the easy answer is to do a modus tollens by saying - ah, but kel, your premises lead to an intolerable conclusion: we don't know where the Elims are, and they are intolerably inactive D1 so something is wrong with your premises and you should revise your credences in Flamingo and Ostrich being Village lower. I don't deny this is a compelling line of thought, but I feel as though I'm not sufficiently swayed on Flamingo and Ostrich being Evil enough to make that move. So if I'm currently freezing my Flamingo and Ostrich credences, then my D1 picture requires Elim clumping on the Iguana CW and potential spread elsewhere. <Albatross, Cham, and Heron> stick out to me. Not sure about Axl. Dingo's apparent apathy to Gorilla being endangered does improve his status in my eyes a little, though.

D2:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (5): Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat
Scarlet Octopus (4): Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Oxblood Beagle, Saffron Iguana
Onyx Flamingo (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Turquoise Gorilla
Magenta Albatross (1): Amber Vulture
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Amethyst Scorpion

I need to relook the events of the day, because on one hand, there's an appalling amount of Elim apathy. On the other hand, we notice the top two trains are known to have flipped Village. In other words, Elim apathy is not surprising, and to some extent, might even be expected.

I recall a Magenta Albatross train taking off somewhere during D2 and being dampened. I need to relook that in analysis - if Hyena's Iguana push was in response to the Albatross train, it could very well be trying to head off suspicion on a teammate before it got out of hand.

Unfortunately, everyone's votes stand out here today as being meh. Azure Mouse drops a vote and scurries off - wonder if it's a teammate following onto a target. Cham goes onto Iguana, and we know Hyena is already there. Heron, Axl, and Scorp are all kings of the side-train. Nothing much I can say except to highlight those as potential Elim hiding places.

Non-voters D2: <Amber Vulture, Melon Dingo, Plum Rhino (NAI; inactive), Sunburst Toucan, Ivory Dragonfly, Quartz Zebra, Sapphire Elephant>

It's unusual for Elims to clump, is the issue. But this team has a higher risk profile, due to the presence of Hyena, and I would not be surprised if a seemingly-inexperienced player like Mouse v 1.0 had no issues following teammates.

  • Thoughts: Nothing significant. Left with the same groups of people. D1 looks better on Axl and Scorp than D2 does. Mint Heron continues to be bleargh and I'm wondering if my ID read is making me more charitable towards Heron than I should be.
     
  • what the hell is this game even i think im just cranky & need more sleep

D3:

Quote

Turquoise Gorilla (9): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat
Emerald Falcon (2): Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros
Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle (1): Chartreuse Penguin
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Quartz Zebra (1): Charcoal Hyena

This is an interesting day for several reasons. Gorilla got hit by a landslide - Flamingo was mooted CW and Scorpion followed Hyena's push initially, which to me, doesn't necessarily look all that great (but depends on Flamingo's flip I guess. Still reading her V though.) Since Falcon is V, Falcon is properly another Gorilla CW.

  • Rhino comes out of hibernation to vote on Falcon and goes back into hibernation. Don't remember seeing Rhino since. Want to note Rhino votes for V!Falcon over E!Gorilla. This is an interesting decision, and I wonder if this comes at the point when there is some sense Falcon might be a CW.
     
  • Madlads Axl and Heron dgaf and continue to reign in glory on their side-trains. Heron jumping on Ostrich in my view begins to look bad in light of the fact that Hyena tried to push an Ostrich CW D4.
     
  • Cham looks bad for going onto the Falcon CW. I feel like E!Cham might have happily bussed Gorilla, but at this juncture, the only bussers I can see on the train are latecomers Albatross and Scorp, potentially Zebra as well but Zebra seems to have gone for Gorilla at a time of the cycle where he could plausibly have voted Falcon and made Falcon more competitive, so he looks more Village in my eyes. Scorp and Alb don't get that same credit as it's a runaway train by then.

D4:

D4 is uninteresting because everyone and their chull voted for Hyena so I'm not going to bother.

Several things that jump out at me so far through this re-read:

A. Axl's low vote diversity - he's been going after Cham non-stop since D2. It's very blatant and idgaf, and I can't decide if it's Elim or Village to me. I'd expect E!Axl to have more vote diversity so I'm leaning Village, but this post also sticks out to me:

Axl was one of the players pushing a V/V/V D1 line for Gorilla/Iguana/Crocodile and trying to solicit players onto his lone Cham train. Which, fair enough, but it's significant in light of the fact he also states that he hasn't ISO-ed Falcon (the Village) and will stick to his gut (Village) on Gorilla.

Declining to join on a V/E train isn't as meh as voting E but I feel like the D1 V/V/V reads are premature and in line with what Hyena was pushing for, so I'm side-eying Axl for this one. Does this mean I go all over the place for Axl? Probably. There's still the Smoking problem to resolve IMO - we don't have a Smoking claim, which would've made Axl's vote on Gorilla D1 pretty risky (HAHAHAHAHA), and that's the main thing which keeps me hesitating. There's just no other interaction which makes sense that I can think of given the known Emotional Allomancy. I feel like the risk might have been within Axl's tolerance level if Axl didn't know Scorp (see: not E/E) was going to come down on that train like Smaug at the last minute. Maybe Axl Soothed But I think I'll go with Axl for now.

B. Where the chull are the Elims? This is a consistent problem on most days, as I've noted. No Elim was in danger D2 so Elim apathy is to be expected, but D3 feels like it turned into a bus, and D1 is a genuine mystery and my brain is too broken to puzzle it out further right now so I'm just going to dump this in the thread for someone else to look at on my behalf.

C. I don't like postulating inactive Elim teams, but Dingo's apathy is annoying but also ??? because he's not helping his team either so who the hell knows man. Rhino and Mouse re-appearing to throw down votes makes me more suspicious in that regard, before they fade back into obscurity.

Redone Vote Movement Analysis

-tbc another day because im tired & i need to clear work and stuff & recover & sleep

-tired kel is tired

I'm probably drunk and tripping because: Albatross Violet Axl

i like ur style old friend & i like ur porch

but u r doin' me a concern here

edit: @Fifth Scholar @Elbereth retraction highlighted to save your eyes

edited to add 2: *Maybe Axl Soothed But I think I'll go with Axl for now. - This should read as speculation that Axl is a Soother, but Soothers can't target themselves, so this requires Axl to be in cahoots with a Soother who also targeted Axl's vote, or targeted someone Smoked, in which case that just seems...overly elaborate in a number of cases. Yet the challenge is that if Hyena is correct and he drew Pewter N3, then Hyena's claims to have drawn Brass N3 could be a gamble - he'd have to remain alive for us to see him use it - but could also plausibly point to a Soother/Rioter teammate. With over 25% of the distro still unknown to us, I don't want us to rolelynch at this point.

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
bolded albatross cancel for gm eyes
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Dyring was wiping down the front windows of the inn when Kellerht stopped by and mentioned his concerns about Dyring's actions over the last couple of weeks. Dyring frowned at his friend and asked, "You're kidding, right?" But they both knew that Kellerht wasn't, and the farmer's already stony face hardened further. Dyring turned his gaze back to his unfinished work for a moment before sighing. "All right. I'll see if I can come up with something to convince you. But there are things that need doing around here. So if you want me to take time to defend myself, you better help out with the work." With that, he tossed his rag to Kellehrt, set down his bucket of water, and headed inside to gather his thoughts.


Unfortunately I've got a fair amount of work (and scheduled fun things) to do today, so I won't be on to doing my own analysis of other players until possibly later tonight. However, right now, based on the reads list I gave last cycle and the updated colors on the D1 votes, I'll vote for Mint Heron.

The main thing I have to say about D1 is: why would elim!Axolotl claim the role/action that I did (aside from the benefit of me being able to ask this now, of course :P)? I myself was confused by the vote manip D1 and missed that Pearl's vote had been claimed to be Soothed (my lack of knowledge is not confirmable, but true nonetheless). At the very least, anyone entertaining that I am elim should also entertain that I lied about my role and the vote manip came from elsewhere on the elim team.

With regards to Days 2 and 3, the main thing I have to say is that these were near the end of my winter holiday break, so I was trying to spend time with family more than work out things, which is why I didn't do a whole lot of looking into, well, anyone. Maybe elim!me would have tried harder? I'd like to think that being with family is more important than being elim though.

I feel like I should say something about the person Meerkat believes me to be and who Hyena claimed to be being elims together and losing 2 teammates in 4 cycles, but that's not really a defense either.

Edited by Violet Axolotl
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34 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

I feel like I should say something about the person Meerkat believes me to be and who Hyena claimed to be being elims together and losing 2 teammates in 4 cycles, but that's not really a defense either.

I will agree that my thoughts when I realised I was committed to that being an Elim team sort of went in the direction of "the gods really hate Tyrian huh"

34 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

The main thing I have to say about D1 is: why would elim!Axl claim the role/action that I did (aside from the benefit of me being able to ask this now, of course :P)? I myself was confused by the vote manip D1 and missed that Pearl's vote had been claimed to be Soothed (my lack of knowledge is not confirmable, but true nonetheless). At the very least, anyone entertaining that I am elim should also entertain that I lied about my role and the vote manip came from elsewhere on the elim team.

bro I was trying so hard not to slip ur name & u just went and

@Fifth Scholar i wld like u 2 witness this one was not my fault i don't fifth players all the time

And Axl - I would agree. In my view, D1 looks good on you. It's D2 and D3 I'm having difficulties making sense of, and if I take D2 and D3 to point towards you being Evil, then I'm required to consider the possibility you are lying about D1, or at least about the Riot target on D1.

One of the ways to make sense of it does involve the claim that you lied about your role and the vote manip came from elsewhere, e.g. someone Soothing you, which is sort of what I said in the less coherent part as my brain broke trying to contemplate the possibilities.

Edited to add: @Violet Axolotl - Kas, bro, i know u were givin me tips on how 2 impersonate u & u said less is more & im tellin u this about Araris now, slippin like this doesnt really make ur Araris impersonation sound any better

u were doin better when u were porch chillin & just sort of radiating bloodthirsty vibes, u know?

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
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13 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Edited to add: @Violet Axolotl - Kas, bro, i know u were givin me tips on how 2 impersonate u & u said less is more & im tellin u this about Araris now, slippin like this doesnt really make ur Araris impersonation sound any better

I'm pretty sure if I were doing an Araris impersonation then I'd be RPing a grouchy old man (or woman, in the case of Arenta) that whacks people and I'd be saying "bother" a whole lot. Although apparently Dyring doesn't believe in Koloss, so maybe you're on to something :ph34r:.

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Just now, Violet Axolotl said:

I'm pretty sure if I were doing an Araris impersonation then I'd be RPing a grouchy old man (or woman, in the case of Arenta) that whacks people and I'd be saying "bother" a whole lot. Although apparently Dyring doesn't believe in Koloss, so maybe you're on to something :ph34r:.

exactly

1/10 araris impersonation

u have a porch but everyone knows kas likes porches too

ur not foolin anyone, Kas bro :|

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Don't have much time to post. This weekend is very busy for me, and I tend to check out when we've got confirmed mafia. Anyways, Oxblood Beagle. They started a diverting train Day 1, and then voted on the counter lynch on Day 3. This is obvious evil behavior, and I'm surprised it hasn't been brought up yet.

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27 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Don't have much time to post. This weekend is very busy for me, and I tend to check out when we've got confirmed mafia. Anyways, Oxblood Beagle. They started a diverting train Day 1, and then voted on the counter lynch on Day 3. This is obvious evil behavior, and I'm surprised it hasn't been brought up yet.

The "diverting train" was made well before Gorilla was in danger, and it was based on a perfectly logical reason for D1, which was a vote on someone who was not in Swan's elim read list. I'd seen that tactic used by the former Heron in a different game to distance from teammates, so I try to watch for it.

I also wasn't the only on Falcon vote D3, and had good reason at the time to consider them elim. A lot of the same reasons which led to them being suspected alongside Hyena, who was elim.

Unfortunately, I'm not up for doing an analysis today (my head hurts and I am so, very tired, on top of being at work), so my vote is going to have to wait. Hopefully tomorrow morning before rollover.

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alright kids I've been rereading the thread and I've now stopped at page 20 out of 40 B) It is 4:30 am. I have a migraine, my eyeballs ache, my back hurts, and I'm dehydrated but I have come to the conclusion that Pearl Chameleon needs to die. Note that I have not read this turn's thread yet, at least not past the last time I posted. But I will get around to this I promise, tomorrow morning. 

Now you might be asking penguin why are you voting on someone when you've only reread half the game. Well the answer is a) because I need to vote before going to bed tonight in order to feel a sense of accomplishment and b)i doubt the events of cycles 3 to 4 have much to do with cham i think they were on the sidelines most of the time and we pretty much acted unanimously as a thread for the better part of those cycles but do not worry I fully intend to finish my reread of the game and if I feel like my suspicions are ill-founded then I shall retract my vote.

Anyway. It all starts D1 >:) 

Cham first post is a vote on iguana - fine, doesn't imply much.

Hyena's first post (the reads list) had Cham down as:

Quote

 

Pearl Chameleon: If I had to vote at the same point as Pearl, I'd probably have done the same as them for the same reason. I have more thoughts on their posts since being put on the defensive, but I'll need to do a proper analysis isolation of the people involved before I take one stance or another. 

Note that he subtly defends Cham while hedging on providing a definitive read. Cham never chooses to address this part of hyena's post.

Next,

After meerkat moves his vote to gorilla, pearl and gorilla sit at a tie (2 votes on each), and cham chooses to vote on Swan instead of Gorilla because

Quote

I am not suspicious of him. I do not trust him either, but that is no reason to condemn him right now.

Hedgy, no? Extremely non-committal. Notably, Axolotl calls cham out for this:

This whole guilty-until-proven-innocent convo between Axolotl and Cham does not read e-e to me, for future reference.

Spoiler
Quote

side-note: during my reread I noticed

Spoiler

Violet was the first vote on gorilla:

 

And later tried to ask Swan to also vote for gorilla:

 

Naturally, gets village points. I am not very suspicious of Axolotl.

 

(Something's up with the quote boxes up there but idk too tired to bother fixing it lol)

Furthermore, shortly after, in this post cham says:

Quote

shrug* i've always felt that it's better to vote in a way that makes your vote most likely to result in an exe.

If that was so, it would've made more sense for Cham to vote for Gorilla instead of Swan. That would've brought the exe to 3/2 split between the two of them instead of bringing it to a tie. As of then, the vote situation was:

  • (2) Pearl Chameleon: Scarlet Octopus, Mauve Crocodile,
  • (2) Torquoise Gorilla: Violet Axlotlt, Salmon Meerkat,
  • (1) Charcoal Hyena: Chartreuse Penguin, 
  • (1) Amethyst Scorpion: Charcoal Hyena,
  • (1) Scarlet Octopus: Amber Vulture, 
  • (1) Melon Dingo: Coral Swan, 
  • (1) Coral Swan: Oxblood Beagle, 
  • (1) Violet Axlotl: Onyx Flamingo, 
  • (1) Mauve Crocodile: Fuchsia Ostrich,

(At some point in D2, Cham says something about how they might change their vote in a certain direction in order to solidify a lynch and prevent the tie, so Im confused as to why they were seemingly okay with it here. An explanation could be that e!Cham just wanted to save Gorilla.)

Back to d1: later on in the cycle, at the point where the votes were 

Spoiler

Pearl Chameleon [3]: Coral Swan, Mauve Crocodile, Scarlet Octopus

Charcoal Hyena [2]: Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat

Coral Swan [2]: Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon

Mauve Crocodile [2]: Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich

Amethyst Scorpion [1]: Charcoal Hyena

Scarlet Octopus [1]: Amber Vulture

Turquoise Gorilla [1]: Violet Axolotl

Violet Axolotl [1]: Onyx Flamingo

Gorilla decided to vote Swan instead of Cham, despite the fact that voting Cham would've further protected gorilla from the exe. Unprompted, Gorilla claimed that this was because Cham seemed village to them in PMs:

I noticed that was never addressed to by Cham in-thread, so I PM'd Cham today asking whether they had a PM with Gorilla, and what they discussed. Interestingly enough, Cham said that they never had any game-related conversations D1 (all OOG stuff) and that Gorilla mainly talked RP-style. Which begs the question, how exactly had Gorilla gotten village vibes from Cham in their PM? More importantly, why didn't Cham feel the need to point out the fact that they never really even talked game-related events? 

Back to d1, Cham later switches their vote back to iguana from swan, breaking the 3-3 tie between cham and swan. One possible explanation i can see for e!cham doing this is that a tie would've meant that either gorilla (an elim) or swan (villager) would've gotten exe’d at random. If swan got exe’d and cham was seen on the counter wagon, it would’ve incriminated cham to some degree if gorilla flipped. Or at least, this is what I was thinking before it came to my knowledge that the entire Iguana wagon was coordinated by Cham via PMs (I mean that logic still holds true in this case too but). Was this common knowledge? If it was, why haven't more people been talking about it? Anyway I PM'd Alb today asking if their sudden vote on Iguana had anything to do with Cham's PMs with them and Alb explained that yes, Cham had coordinated it. Sus? At least a little? Also, of lesser significance but I think it's worth mentioning that Alb has claimed that Gorilla spoke to them not in RP-style, but OOC in their PM (recall that Cham claimed the opposite and idk, I'd expect consistency from Gorilla I think) I mean it's a tiny thing but hey.

Okay, moving on to N1.

Quote

"As for who I suspect, I still suspect Iguana, and am not a fan of the fact that vote manipulation saved them. Same for the vote manipulation saving Gorilla, though I still am confused where the suspicion on them comes from.”

Again, hedging around Gorilla, neglecting to provide personal opinion on them.

Sigh ok that's all for now I do have other fragmented thoughts from my reread that I've written down but since they do not pertain to Cham I'll talk about those later.

Also Im sure there's a billion things in this post that probably dont make sense just @ me ill explain when I have regained  s t r e n g t h 

 

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5 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I noticed that was never addressed to by Cham in-thread, so I PM'd Cham today asking whether they had a PM with Gorilla, and what they discussed. Interestingly enough, Cham said that they never had any game-related conversations D1 (all OOG stuff) and that Gorilla mainly talked RP-style. Which begs the question, how exactly had Gorilla gotten village vibes from Cham in their PM? More importantly, why didn't Cham feel the need to point out the fact that they never really even talked game-related events?

For what it is worth, I do not believe I ever noticed that post from Gorilla. Or if I did, I skimmed it at a time when I was skimming through many other posts as well, which I did a lot of on D1 as there was a lot happening during that first day and I was sick at the time. I do not know why Gorilla claimed to have village read me based on PMs. Like I said, we mostly talked about OOG things. If I had noticed this, I would have asked them about it. Most likely in PMs, unless I thought their answer in PMs was significant enough to warrant letting the thread know.

I have further thoughts about your post, but I am about to go get food, so that will have to wait for later.

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Going to say that I find Penguin's case against Chameleon pretty convincing. In an attempt to convince Meerkat that I am not in fact Kas doing a poor impersonation of someone, I'm actually going to get some sleep tonight. Probably going to be ~10 hours before I post again. Hopefully Chameleon will have responded by then, so I can make a slightly more informed choice of whether or not to move my vote.

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6 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

For what it is worth, I do not believe I ever noticed that post from Gorilla. Or if I did, I skimmed it at a time when I was skimming through many other posts as well, which I did a lot of on D1 as there was a lot happening during that first day and I was sick at the time. I do not know why Gorilla claimed to have village read me based on PMs. Like I said, we mostly talked about OOG things. If I had noticed this, I would have asked them about it. Most likely in PMs, unless I thought their answer in PMs was significant enough to warrant letting the thread know.

I have further thoughts about your post, but I am about to go get food, so that will have to wait for later.

I look forward to your further thoughts and will be putting my vote here for now to keep the pressure up. Pearl Chamelion

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12 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Don't have much time to post. This weekend is very busy for me, and I tend to check out when we've got confirmed mafia. Anyways, Oxblood Beagle. They started a diverting train Day 1, and then voted on the counter lynch on Day 3. This is obvious evil behavior, and I'm surprised it hasn't been brought up yet.

D1

Quote

Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron

D3

Quote

Turquoise Gorilla (9): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat
Emerald Falcon (2): Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros
Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle (1): Chartreuse Penguin
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Quartz Zebra (1): Charcoal Hyena

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add a meme:

Disclaimer - I'm not sure I'm committed to Heron being Spiked but their takes have been rather weird all game in my eyes and I can never let a delicious prequel meme slip by.

Spoiler

unknown.png

 

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
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Apologies for the double-post but i want something more concrete for when the americans wake up and join us. I'm not thrilled with the level of discussion at the moment but I also get it's a weekend for them (still)? so. - And ninjaed by El, but whatever :P 

Essentially my take today is i'm more or less down for a few options:

  • Albatross

My issue with Albatross is the vote dilution D1 - I'm sold enough on Flamingo and Ostrich being Village (more Ostrich, if I'm to be honest) that in terms of vote movements that save Elims, I'm compelled to look then at Albatross drawing the Iguana train into contention, turning a V/E lynch into V/V/E. The tie turns it from 50-50 odds of killing an Elim to 1/3 odds, which shouldn't be underestimated. Train dilution tactics are popular these days. I feel that Albatross's D3 Gorilla vote sort of appears around the point it was clearly a bus, so I'm not sure I'd take it to be exculpatory either. 

D2 is interesting because:

Quote

Magenta Albatross (3): Chartreuse Penguin, Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla
Onyx Flamingo (2): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violent Axolotl
Scarlet Octopus (1): Oxblood Beagle, Salmon Meerkat<1>
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Coral Swan
Saffron Iguana (2): Emerald Falcon<2>, Pearl Chameleon
Emerald Falcon (1): Magenta Albatross

Note that my count missed a Penguin vote, which I've added here. It also added a Cham vote which didn't exist. Which means this is the juncture Albatross is the lead train, and we have a bunch of subtrains coming up. What interests me is Gorilla tipping the Albatross train. Meant to protect Flamingo? I don't know. Seems odd for Gorilla to go onto Albatross slightly six hours to rollover, but maybe Elim team risk tolerance is a thing. It's especially notable to me because Gorilla's votes have been historically sticky with regard to Albatross - Gorilla goes onto Albatross...for voting me as Evil...on D3, which is a bit of a hot take since I'd claimed Evil at that point.

Some time after, Charcoal Hyena makes an Iguana push, which could be being protective of Gorilla (though now I'm starting to wonder if this is to ease the threat that Gorilla created on Albatross.) Flamingo is very close in the running, though, so it could just be punting those trains away too. That gives us:

Quote

Magenta Albatross (3): Chartreuse Penguin, Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla
Onyx Flamingo (2): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violent Axolotl
Scarlet Octopus (1): Oxblood Beagle, Salmon Meerkat<1>
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Coral Swan
Saffron Iguana (3): Emerald Falcon<2>, Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena
Emerald Falcon (1): Magenta Albatross

Since Hyena flipped E and Iguana V, that's an interesting move. Is Hyena trying to resolve a self-caused (teammate-caused) problem? Or is Hyena trying to kick the trains further away from Cham?

And then as of Beagle's post: [slightly under 3 hours to rollover]

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): Emerald Falcon, Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle
Onyx Flamingo (3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich,
Coral Swan
Magenta Albatross (2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violent Axolotl
Emerald Falcon (1): Magenta Albatross
Scarlet Octopus (1): Chartreuse Penguin

Granted, Penguin withdrew, so pressure on Albatross decreased. But it feels to me like the Iguana push was meant to detract from the Albatross/Flamingo train, to be honest. But that's a partly self-caused issue because of Gorilla.

Flamingo comes onto Iguana after that. Could have a self-pres element, but I think it could also have an Albatross dimension. Not sure. Flamingo push originated from Heron but was supported by Ostrich, who I read V and who made a good point, and then Swan.

From Falcon at slightly under 2.5 hours to rollover:

Quote

>> Saffron Iguana(4): Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo
> Onyx Flamingo(3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan
> Magenta Albatross(3): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, Emerald Falcon
Pearl Chameleon(1): Violet Axolotl
Scarlet Octopus(1): Chartreuse Penguin

I feel like either interpretation is fine. I don't like that Cham clumps onto Iguana, but Flamingo's voting patterns don't look good to me either - I'm really going V!Flamingo on the basis of her D3 here. The Iguana train (first going live from Hyena's post) reads to me as an attempt to take pressure off either of them, but at that point, it's really Albatross under threat, even if it's self-caused.

FWIW, Gorilla later goes off onto Scorp, which might be retaliatory, or to further ease pressure off Alb. 

At twenty three minutes to rollover, this is the vote-count:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Onyx Flamingo, Salmon Meerkat
Onyx Flamingo (3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan
Magenta Albatross (2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, Emerald Falcon
Scarlet Octopus (3): Chartreuse Penguin, Saffron Iguana, Oxblood Beagle
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Amethyst Scorpion
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Turquoise Gorilla

Cham misses that Gorilla has withdrawn from Albatross, btw, which is interesting. A Soothe from Iguana will turn the train into a 3 way tie in which Ocho, Flamingo, or Iguana dies, which is the point at which Azure Mouse scurries in to break the tie by voting for Iguana. (We don't know why.) If E Flamingo, then interesting to look at Azure Mouse, because if these were V/V/V wagons, then there's simply no interest in looking at Flamingo.

@Fuchsia Ostrich - FWIW, I still think you don't kill the CW unless you were expecting to use Ocho's death to direct attention and thus the lynch to Flamingo.

I also don't like how Alb has faded into the background ever since I personally read him moderately Village, so although this puts me voting with a player I'm not sure about, Magenta Albatross, let's see some ID.

  • Axl

Again, I think D1 looks better on Axl but I'm not really sure why "if I'm the player you thought I am, we wouldn't have lost two Spiked in four cycles" is a compelling defence, because we all know who I think - and who Hyena thinks - Vulture is and I just want to lightly remind everyone Vulture led and did all the analysis and heavy-lifting in this AG, I just fed him with information, and losing Vulture in AG3 turned the game badly against the Village as he'd IDed some hidden Spiked (and if you are who you think I think you are, Axl, you will remember these), he used a linguistic slip ("Spiked" instead of "elim") to ID the entire elim team in LG50, and won the game in a single cycle before. Simply put, if we're back to player ID defenses, I put it to you that as much as I greatly respect you, Axl, and imagine you would get the best of me when crossing blades, I would always bet on Vulture in a clash between the two of you so long as Vulture is in decent shape and capable of committing to the game.

(I'd be happy to be made to eat my words :P Goodness knows I'd like to see you give Vulture a trashing, but that detracts from the point.)

I dislike your D2 and D3 because I feel you continuously erode at the reasons to push Gorilla, and on D3, parked on Cham and tried to splinter votes off the Gorilla train and said you hadn't ISO-ed Falcon. That doesn't look good in light of the Falcon V flip and Gorilla E flip: you're weakly defending an Elim, and more or less just being non-committal about a Villager. I agree this might be a very uncharitable take of your D2 and I'm genuinely at a loss as to what to make of the fact that your votes and suspicion doesn't seem to have substantially shifted off Cham since...C2 where you asked us not to lose sight of Cham and assume Cham was auto-cleared by no reaction. I feel like Elim you would have ensured more vote diversity, but I'm also well aware you're a player flexible enough to shift your meta so I especially don't want to meta clear or meta condemn you here.

Given that Hyena at least seemed to put effort into defending Gorilla, I feel it's not strange to look at players pushing similar lines when considering grounds for suspicion, though of course I'm certain some of them will be bussing or distancing.

I'm not really clear why considering that you may have lied about D1 is meant to be exculpatory, to be honest. I think if I'm trying to reconcile your D1 with your D2 and D3, I'm compelled to consider all sorts of possibilities in which you've lied. I agree I'm torn in two ways when it comes to figuring out what to make of you, but I think that's generally true. It is true that the only way (I think) that you are Evil and voting on Gorilla requires you to have insane risk appetite and/or vote manip (whether yours or a teammates.) Yet the interactions don't really work out - quite. IDK. I'm throwing this out here for people to chew on for that reason.

My current D1 reads commit me to an inexplicable amount of Elim apathy with regard to the D1 train anyway, so I'm going to need to take a relook.

I'm very conflicted on you, and not enough to kill you right now. Violent Axolotl.

  • Cham

Long story short, my issue with Cham boils down to Gorilla waffling, and D3 commitment to Falcon over Hyena, and a pattern of really bad votes D1-D3. :P Because I'm tired and I think this post has gone long enough I want some fresh eyes on it.

I'd like scrutiny on resident filter-dodgers Elephant, Rhino, Dingo, and Mouse (less Mouse), possibly Dragonfly too. Happy to see an airstrike because at this point, I'm heavily suspicious of at least one lurker Elim.

Edited to add: I'm okay with revising my Beagle read downwards as well. As much as I troll Heron over their uninspiring voting patterns, Beagle's doesn't look good either. In my view, while I have a preference for Alb to be lynched, I'm indifferent if Cham goes instead. I V read Flamingo but acknowledge her D1-D2 looks meh enough I probably wouldn't feel askance about checking since I'm otherwise committed to a clean Crocodile train, which is really weird.

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
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1 hour ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Again, I think D1 looks better on Axl but I'm not really sure why "if I'm the player you thought I am, we wouldn't have lost two Spiked in four cycles" is a compelling defence, because we all know who I think - and who Hyena thinks - Vulture is and I just want to lightly remind everyone Vulture led and did all the analysis and heavy-lifting in this AG, I just fed him with information, and losing Vulture in AG3 turned the game badly against the Village as he'd IDed some hidden Spiked (and if you are who you think I think you are, Axl, you will remember these), he used a linguistic slip ("Spiked" instead of "elim") to ID the entire elim team in LG50, and won the game in a single cycle before. Simply put, if we're back to player ID defenses, I put it to you that as much as I greatly respect you, Axl, and imagine you would get the best of me when crossing blades, I would always bet on Vulture in a clash between the two of you so long as Vulture is in decent shape and capable of committing to the game.

(I'd be happy to be made to eat my words :P Goodness knows I'd like to see you give Vulture a trashing, but that detracts from the point.)

That is a good point, and my apologies to Vulture for discounting you when I made that argument. I do think it’s important to have somewhere in the back of your head the thought, “would player X do this as elim?” It’s not always a helpful line of reasoning, especially because elims can play with it to make IKYKs, but it can turn some actions from elim to NAI at least. Something like “confirmed not helpful isn’t the same as confirmed not village”, which is unfortunate.

And yeah, like I said earlier, I’ve basically got no defense for D2 or D3. Family over ISOing and all that.

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10 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

And yeah, like I said earlier, I’ve basically got no defense for D2 or D3. Family over ISOing and all that.

there's a reason my vote isn't on u anymore =p

multiple reasons i suppose

i approve of that attitude, fwiw. family first.

10 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

I do think it’s important to have somewhere in the back of your head the thought, “would player X do this as elim?” It’s not always a helpful line of reasoning, especially because elims can play with it to make IKYKs, but it can turn some actions from elim to NAI at least. Something like “confirmed not helpful isn’t the same as confirmed not village”, which is unfortunate.

fair enough

i think some players do push the envelope on this, e.g. 'would player X bus the strongest power role on their team?' is usually a default no, but then stuff happens and all that.

but i think we can safely table that as academic for now since im not exactly voting 4 u & it looks like an alb-cham thunderdome rn

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Heads-up I will likely be gone until half an hour before rollover. I'm okay with either Alb or Cham, mild Alb preference but as long as either of my trains are in the lead, don't especially care. 

I have homework to clear and OT databases to do so just @ me if I'm needed to secure either of my candidates against manip and so on. 

Goodnight to you all, reachable as always in PMs. 

 

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Su was dead.

Scimon Tlag found himself standing at his cart, but nothing was on the table this time. He just stared. There was talk of his death, of course. What a shame it was that the Mistborn of Tyrian Falls had fallen. But it was always that - that their Mistborn was dead. Not their Su. All Su’s death meant was that their nights were quieter. They weren’t exactly in mourning.

Su was dead.

Tlag mourned, though, in his own way. Nothing to sell. Just stood and watched the increasingly rare passers-by. Giving a “Praise the Ja” to each one. He still didn’t really know what to make of that, but he hoped that if Su was watching, it would make him happy. And if the Ja was watching, maybe it would make them happy too.

Su was dead.

Eventually his thoughts turned to Riggs. The first one to die. Nobody said his name in mourning anymore. Tlag found himself barely remembering it. That had to change.

Su was dead.

He stepped forward, forward, and went to Dyring’s Inn.

Su was dead.

”Hello, Dyring,” he said, finding a stool and giving only a brief glance to the other patrons. “I need a drink. And to find the other of Su’s friends. The drunker one. Quartz, or whatever he calls himself.”

Su was dead.

”Praise the Ja.”

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With Alb flying under the radar since their almost-death, I feel like voting them out wouldn't be too bad of an idea. It's suspicious to me, and I'm still hanging onto that thug claim possibly indicating elim? An elim thug + mistborn does seem powerful though. Gah

Pearl Chameleon because of many points already brought up (going after falcon, weird defenses of elims, bad voting habits, etc) and because I think the questions surrounding them are enough to warrant an exe so we don't keep going in circles. I read mild elim. Sorry friend </3

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