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I decided to try and read through the rest of the this game to be on equal playing field with the rest of you but there are 37 pages of gameplay and I just simply dont have time for that sorry

I think im going to spend a bit of time poking around in PMs trying to get a read on things there, and then come back to the thread once i have a better grasp on the other players.

Gamestate thoughts:

8 players dead out of 26 puts us at 18 players remaining
Probably an Elim team of around 5?
Two dead elims leaving us with 3 or 4 left out of 18 which is looking pretty good in my opinion

Not having looked through the history much of the game is it expected that there is an elim coinshot besides the mistborn that just died? My guess is no based off of the amount of people dead being pretty standard for night 4, but I could be wrong.

How were Hyena and Gorilla found? Was there anything specific that stands out about how they played? If there is anywhere youd recommend I go look to get a feel for them besides just everything they posted then let me know

 

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2 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

How were Hyena and Gorilla found? Was there anything specific that stands out about how they played? If there is anywhere youd recommend I go look to get a feel for them besides just everything they posted then let me know

I'd highly suggest reading Night 3. It's not super long, but it explains most of the case against Hyena, and IMO the people making that case are pretty solidly village.

Gorilla was caught up in the D1 randomness mostly, but also had a suspicious response to Meerkat's gambit on D3 (Meerkat wrote a Tineye message that a Seeker had scanned himself as Spiked in order to fish for reactions, then later confirmed that he himself had sent the message). We had already killed off Iguana and Croc, so Gorilla dying D3 (or sometime in the near future) was sort of inevitable.

5 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

Not having looked through the history much of the game is it expected that there is an elim coinshot besides the mistborn that just died? My guess is no based off of the amount of people dead being pretty standard for night 4, but I could be wrong.

Pretty much guaranteed that there is no elim Coinshot, but there does appear to be a single Coinshot that certain folks have as solidly village (and I'd agree).

7 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

Probably an Elim team of around 5?

I'd say 6 or 7, more likely, but it's hard to say.

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30 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

I decided to try and read through the rest of the this game to be on equal playing field with the rest of you but there are 37 pages of gameplay and I just simply dont have time for that sorry

I think im going to spend a bit of time poking around in PMs trying to get a read on things there, and then come back to the thread once i have a better grasp on the other players.

Gamestate thoughts:

8 players dead out of 26 puts us at 18 players remaining
Probably an Elim team of around 5?
Two dead elims leaving us with 3 or 4 left out of 18 which is looking pretty good in my opinion

Not having looked through the history much of the game is it expected that there is an elim coinshot besides the mistborn that just died? My guess is no based off of the amount of people dead being pretty standard for night 4, but I could be wrong.

How were Hyena and Gorilla found? Was there anything specific that stands out about how they played? If there is anywhere youd recommend I go look to get a feel for them besides just everything they posted then let me know

 

This is a villager

This is just

Probably a villager

Edited by Emerald Falcon
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Day 5 - One With the Ja

Loenthal worked his way up the ash-covered slope, half leading, half dragging Vincero along with him, who clung to his hand desperately. The ash did not fall lightly here as it did in the plains, instead swirling about them in thick clouds which threatened to bury them if they did not press onward. He knew, inside himself, that this was the most insane thing he had done in a long while. Seek an old tree up in the lower ashmounts while Tyrian Falls tore itself apart? Who knows if the signs had been correct, if the bronze savant he had picked up off the streets of his town was not simply a lunatic or possessed or one of a million other things that made him a rusted fool for looking around in an apocalyptic landscape for something only Keepers now remembered? They would certainly be lost, leagues from help, until the ash cleared. Vincero’s thin, reedy voice broke through his thoughts, muffled by the ashfall. “Over here! Sir!” He was pointing to a patch of green, barely discernible through the fog. Loenthal cried out in relief–the signs had been right–then stopped dead. Blocking their paths, a mist spirit, dagger in hand, stood ominously. Loenthal hoisted Vincero onto his shoulders, letting him perch precariously, and set his feet, extending his dueling cane. There was a brief pause, a moment of hesitation, and the final struggle began. 



Emerald Falcon was a Village Lurcher! (They were killed by two Coinshots.)
Coral Swan was a Village Mistborn! (They were killed by the Spiked.)

Day 5 has begun and will end in 45.5 hours. As a reminder, rollover time from now on will be two hours earlier, at 5pm Pacific / 8 Eastern / 1am GMT.

Writeup statuses: Fifth wants to give Falcon and Swan a proper send-off but I want to get the writeup up quickly so y'all still have plenty of time in the Day, so that will probably be edited in later tonight or tomorrow morning. Hyena is still working on their death writeup, but that'll be coming soon as well.

Player List
1. Amber Vulture Vanilla Villager
2. Amethyst Scorpion - Sidor, newly resigned Hazekiller (Guardsman)
3. Azure Mouse
4. Charcoal Hyena Spiked Mistborn
5. Chartreuse Penguin - Aethex (Jester)
6. Coral Swan - Su (Jaist) Village Mistborn
7. Emerald Falcon Village Lurcher
8. Fuchsia Ostrich - Freddie (Glutton)
9. Ivory Dragonfly (Unlucky) (Replaced)
10. Magenta Albatross (Past Lives)
11. Mauve Crocodile (Gambler) Vanilla Villager
12. Melon Dingo - Scimon Tlag (Merchant)
13. Mint Heron - Tivend Elons (Casanova)
14. Onyx Flamingo (Gossip/Casanova)
15. Opal Lion Vanilla Villager
16. Oxblood Beagle
17. Pearl Chameleon (Secret :) )
18. Plum Rhinoceros (Prophet-ish)
19. Quartz Zebra (Drunk/Jaist)
20. Saffron Iguana (Helpful Heckler) Village Soother
21. Salmon Meerkat - Kellehrt, local farmer and possible madman
22. Sapphire Elephant
23. Scarlet Octopus (Neat, Extremist Priest) Village Tineye
24. Sunburst Toucan Village Thug
25. Turquoise Gorilla (Game Show Host) Spiked
26. Violet Axolotl - Dyring (Neat Innkeeper)

PMs are open.

Tineye Messages

Quote

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cr: Black Hill & heklAa - Rivers & Shores

 

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That's unexpected. I'm not entirely sure what this does for my reads, but I'll do what I can to parse out more of Hyena's and Gorilla's interactions. If nothing else, it does tell us Hyena probably did scan Falcon D1, though that decision is still odd. I do want to look closer at the other Lurcher claim Meerkat mentioned, though there is still the possibility that Hyena rolled Thug, and that's how they survived the Coinshot.

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<OOG>El told me to OOG this and I suppose I will. It's a coward's option but I just don't feel mentally ready to talk to Falcon so I'm not going to just yet and whenever I do it will be via mod mediation. But the strangest thing is what this write up just makes me feel is an overwhelming sense of relief. Because the alternative is that a friend of mine was down for a teammate dragging me through a very bad period of my life and opening scars. And I was pretty mad about that. I shouldn't feel relieved because this isn't a great Village result at all. But I am. Take that as you will. </OOG>

-Swan was a top trust so if not me, they would likely hit him or Penguin. They may have distrusted going for Penguin. Nothing much I can do about that. 

-Agreement was to double tap Falcon. He wanted to shoot Cham but felt it was too risky. 

-Considering revealing Lurcher #1 but IMO, I am concerned about playing Lynch the Lurcher — second V Lurcher is not implausible, or an E Lurcher who simply hasn't been saying anything. Going to sleep on that one. 

-For everyone who kept asking about the D3 Riot, that was Swan. He Rioted Rhino from Falcon to Gorilla. I tried to pass him off as a Rioter but I guess that failed. So it wasn't that I had a lot of trust in the Rioter—it's that the Rioter was Swan who I had a lot of reason to trust. 

-IMO we want to decide the spread of known roles. 2 Lurchers and Three Thugs seem way too much for Village which means in my view either more Mistborn than we had expected or an Evil Coinshot. Paranoia says Evil Coinshot but the Ocho doubletap doesn't make sense to me. We know one of the Tin messages D1 was from Swan so this means two unaccounted for messages. I suppose it's possible still that Hyena sent one and there's an Evil Seeker, but why do we not see Smokers then? So on the assumption Ocho sent something — ah holy Wormmon of course, maybe Ocho sent the last message. But anyway, four messages, if one is from Ocho and one was from me and one from Swan, then we either have one Mistborn or two remaining. I'm too tired to work out the likelihood of five V protect roles right now. Going to think later. 

-I'm surprised I'm alive because I lied. Lurcher #1 Lurched me N3 so the Elims would have known if Lurcher #1 was Evil that I was vulnerable last Night. Hence the contingencies. But as a Tineye, guess I'm not a top kill target either. 

-I'm going to use the flips to rework my suspicions. 

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Swan. 

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
no justification hurts my soul
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I'm heading to be right now, just wanted to make note of the D1 votes with alignments filled in:

Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron

In particular, if we think there are 4-5 elims left, where did they vote D1, if at all? Seems to me like one of Ostrich/Flamingo is rather likely to be elim on that basis alone. Possibly one of Chameleon/Albatross as well. Currently more suspicious of Albatross in the latter set, gonna have to look back on the other two. I also think Heron and Beagle are worth noting for being on side trains, which Hyena did as well.

Edited by Violet Axolotl
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5 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

With Falcon being village, let's start off with Pearl Chameleon.

why does falcon being village make me elim?

i am too tired to think about who to vote on right now

actually no, i'm not

magenta albatross i've been feeling fishy about them ever since they survived. with all these village power roles, i could see the elims having a thug

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7 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

I'm heading to be right now, just wanted to make note of the D1 votes with alignments filled in:

Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron

In particular, if we think there are 4-5 elims left, where did they vote D1, if at all? Seems to me like one of Ostrich/Flamingo is rather likely to be elim on that basis alone. Possibly one of Chameleon/Albatross as well. Currently more suspicious of Albatross in the latter set, gonna have to look back on the other two. I also think Heron and Beagle are worth noting for being on side trains, which Hyena did as well.

I told Ostrich last Night that Penguin was Mistborn. If the theory is that Swan was killed because of a role kill which imo ignores the simplest explanation, then we should have seen an airstrike on Penguin as I have never indicated distrust of Ostrich. I also told Lurcher #1 that Penguin was a power role that skews Village when explaining why I wanted to pass Penguin off as the Lurch target N3. I was trying to generate some cover for Swan. The Elims may have felt this was too easy but take it as you will. 

With Flamingo being pushed so aggressively as the CW D3, and staying on Gorilla, I find it strange to argue for E Flamingo since Falcon/Gorilla V/E. Flamingo could have pushed Falcon instead. Too early for a bus. 

Edited to add: To my pre-reread brain, Ostrich was the first person to keep pushing the ISO inequality on D2 and to keep pushing Hyena to me D3. Hyena also tried to make him and Vulture the CW so I feel like that's another tendentious take. 

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
mobile no let me justify
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30 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

why does falcon being village make me elim?

Same reasons as I've mentioned before, that you were encouraging people to switch to the main wagons D3 and preferred Falcon over Gorilla. I at one point had you and Hyena as not e/e but I can't remember why I thought that since the two of you never even voted for each other (until D4).

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1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Same reasons as I've mentioned before, that you were encouraging people to switch to the main wagons D3 and preferred Falcon over Gorilla. I at one point had you and Hyena as not e/e but I can't remember why I thought that since the two of you never even voted for each other (until D4).

i mean

yeah i suspected falcon more than gorilla

gorilla had hardly done anything imo, though i had started to lean elim on them (you can check my reads list around middle of d3)

if my goal was to get people to switch to falcon from side trains…why would i even suggest gorilla as another possibility?

I preferred falcon over gorilla, but that didn’t mean i was upset over gorilla getting exed. i just wanted people’s votes to matter

if i wanted to gather votes to save gorilla, i would’ve begged people to switch to falcon alone

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So sorry Falcon :(( 

Tentatively moving Scorp into village reads 

Immediately suspicious of Cham, but I will analyze the previous cycles once again with Falcon’s flip when I’m on desktop and cast my vote then

2 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I told Ostrich last Night that Penguin was Mistborn. If the theory is that Swan was killed because of a role kill which imo ignores the simplest explanation, then we should have seen an airstrike on Penguin as I have never indicated distrust of Ostrich. I also told Lurcher #1 that Penguin was a power role that skews Village when explaining why I wanted to pass Penguin off as the Lurch target N3. I was trying to generate some cover for Swan. The Elims may have felt this was too easy but take it as you will. 

 

I still believe the elims have a second mistborn so they could’ve scanned Swan last cycle. It’s also worth considering that they might have a Seeker, who seeked Falcon N1, and seeked Swan last cycle. 

2 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I'm surprised I'm alive because I lied. Lurcher #1 Lurched me N3 so the Elims would have known if Lurcher #1 was Evil that I was vulnerable last Night. Hence the contingencies. But as a Tineye, guess I'm not a top kill target either. 

That would’ve condemned Lurcher #1 very strongly through wouldnt it? I’m sure the elims realise you’d been communicating with your trusts.

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3 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I still believe the elims have a second mistborn so they could’ve scanned Swan last cycle. It’s also worth considering that they might have a Seeker, who seeked Falcon N1, and seeked Swan last cycle. 

Again, I'm not saying this is impossible - I'm saying you're making that inference from a kill that isn't warranted. A kill on a mid-activity player who isn't standing out who happens to be Mistborn is something that cries out for explanation. A kill on a high-activity consensus Village read player also designated as a Village info node...isn't, because it's self-explanatory. It doesn't mean there can't really be a second Mistborn or an E!Seeker, I'm just saying it's not the natural inference to make. Swan being Swan obscures this for us.

My main issue with repeated E!Seeker theories is: where are the Smokers?

3 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

That would’ve condemned Lurcher #1 very strongly through wouldnt it? I’m sure the elims realise you’d been communicating with your trusts.

As I've told the thread and Elims must also be aware, I don't tell players what to do, and only offer tactical advice if requested - it would have been acceptable in my eyes if Village Lurcher #1 had Lurched you or Swan, and my views on rolelynching are very clear. I don't see this as extremely damning because it assumes that one Lurcher must be E and we don't have enough sight of the game distro landscape to know for sure. I also think that given I had emphasised in thread that Swan and you were strong V reads on my part, the Lurcher in this scenario has a simple response: "I Lurched Penguin because you told me she's a power role, and I'd hoped the bluff would be enough to deter the Elims but I guess not. Maybe they saw through it because you were planning too heavily for your death."

I'm going to drop all known roles in thread now, anonymised. I want everyone to take a look at this and to think about these questions: where are the Smokers? Where are the protect roles distributed? Where are the Mistborn? Is there a chance of an E!Coinshot (which would entail high numbers of V protective roles?)

Total List of Known Roles [N.B. 26 players in total]

Spoiler

6 Regulars
2 Mistborn
3 Thugs
2 Rioters
1 Soother
2 Lurchers
1 Coinshot
2 Tineyes

= 19 (Someone @ me if the maths doesn't add up)

In other words, out of this game, we currently know 19 roles, or 73% of the distro.

Some of these claims are stronger than others, e.g. the Village Thug flip from Toucan, versus players who make regular claim. But my point is that's still more than one quarter (25%) of the game we don't have sight of. I would be very, very hesitant about rolelynching at this juncture.

My thoughts from this so far:

  • I can't tell if this is an E Coinshot distro or not. Prior to N2, it seems like the whole Village (including Vulture) and myself excluded - were happy to assume V Coinshot. Ostrich convinced me D3 because of the curious Ocho doubletap. But it seems to me to be prima facie implausible that we have V Coinshot and a lot of V protective roles. But the issue is we really just need sight into the last 25% of the game - I feel like a second Spiked Mistborn is possible (Mistborn #3), or alternatively, that we really do have so many protective roles because of the Spiked Coinshot (?) But I still feel Spiked Coinshots are a nighmare to balance so I'm leaning V for the moment. Which means I'm committed to side-eying the number of protective roles we have - sort of.
     
  • For the Thugs in particular, two of them have been confirmed Village by Word of El-and-Fifth. One Lurcher has also been confirmed Village by Word of El-and-Fifth. But this could easily be disrupted by a third Elim Lurcher who simply never claimed - I'm trying to consider how likely I find it that this is a Three V!Thug Two V!L one E!L game and I think that this still more or less commits us to the claim that on the face of it, that's a...lot of Village protective roles.
     
  • On the possibility of an Elim Seeker. I don't rule it out but one thing this game has that I find striking is a decent number of regulars, and 3 vote manips. That's it. Vote manip has been low and I don't think anyone at all has hit a Smoker yet. So where are the Smokers? If there is an E!Seeker, I would expect one or two V!Smokers, just as protection from the E!Seeker. Similarly for the vote manip case. The lack of a sign of a Smoker (granted, a Regular could be fakeclaiming) actually makes me wonder if vote manip skews Village and maybe 2 Elim Smokers. But again, with the caveat we do not have sight of one quarter of this game.

I have other reason to think that E!Coinshot doesn't obtain - namely, that if Vulture was really killed because he was thought to be Mistborn, then this isn't consistent with E!Coinshot, as the Coinshot and the Mistborn knew each other (and consented to.) N3 kill would have hit the Mistborn, and in my view, would have been a perfectly reasonable kill, because Swan was a very clear Village read for many, which obscures the reasons behind the kill. We only started to ask questions because Vulture was hit instead.

Finally, I have a bit of a story to tell. As you all know, this is an anon game but El said something about players who scream their identity to the world with every post. So okay, I'm gonna do that - as I've been telling you all, I'm kel, and sometimes I do Kas impressions :P

So, one bit of background here (and if Araris is in this game, he sighs because we have been in enough games that he has heard me tell this at least twenty times, and Fifth has heard this more than enough when I was PMing everyone in MR41 reminding them about the Spanreed Incident.)

Long story short, I was a young naive lad playing my first SE game in LG5. I rand Elim. Oh, cripes. Things get better: I start as a Thug and a PM role combined. (To be clear, LG5 was items based.) The Village decided that the Elims must have a PM role (not wrong), because all PMs are closed unless a person with a PM role opens it, and there's only so many they can open a day (I think?) Anyway - PM role = spanreed.

They weren't wrong. We had a spanreed holder. I was the spanreed holder =)

"Should I use it?" I asked my team. Remember, I was young and naive and I didn't know the faintest thing about playing SE. So I crutched very hard on Awes and Alv.

"I think you should hang on to it," they said.

So here's what happened. I never admitted to having the spanreed, Awes' stoked everyone's paranoia, and the Village lynched every single player with a spanreed, all of whom were Villagers because, recall - I never admitted to having the spanreed, and I was the Elim PM role. There was a bloodbath. I threw the spanreed onto Joe as we killed him just to get rid of the incriminating evidence =)

It was a good play =)

And this is why I never like rolelynches. Can they be grounds for suspicion? Sort of. But that Village was rolelynching I think from D2 onwards, and in my view, you just don't have enough sight of the distro landscape. Even now at 73%, I feel there's too much room for error. Some of the Regular claimants could be lying. Similarly, the E!Lurcher could just be staying quiet.

Which I suppose is a long way of me saying I will not be giving up Lurcher #1's identity or turning on the Coinshot on the basis of distro speculation at this juncture.

Edited to add: And this puts me in the awkward position of voting for Albatross on the basis of his votes, though I may swap to Cham after further consideration, but I really just want to open up discussion more and add more lynch pressure. We're at D5, thread shouldn't be this dead.

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
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Okay I was planning on doing a full re-read before posting and deciding on a vote but just realized something to reply to - 

37 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:
  • On the possibility of an Elim Seeker. I don't rule it out but one thing this game has that I find striking is a decent number of regulars, and 3 vote manips. That's it. Vote manip has been low and I don't think anyone at all has hit a Smoker yet. So where are the Smokers? If there is an E!Seeker, I would expect one or two V!Smokers, just as protection from the E!Seeker. Similarly for the vote manip case. The lack of a sign of a Smoker (granted, a Regular could be fakeclaiming) actually makes me wonder if vote manip skews Village and maybe 2 Elim Smokers. But again, with the caveat we do not have sight of one quarter of this game.

I don't think Elims have a Seeker because Hyena said he'd have loved to play longer with Vulture and the only reason they killed him because he suspected VUlture was a Mistborn. The tone he said it was casual too, so don't think it was misleading and if they had a Seeker, it's more likely they'd have scanned to see his role.

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1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Okay I was planning on doing a full re-read before posting and deciding on a vote but just realized something to reply to - 

I don't think Elims have a Seeker because Hyena said he'd have loved to play longer with Vulture and the only reason they killed him because he suspected VUlture was a Mistborn. The tone he said it was casual too, so don't think it was misleading and if they had a Seeker, it's more likely they'd have scanned to see his role.

If so, in my view, E!Coinshot likelihood drops very low. Only four people knew the Mistborn's identity N3—myself, Vulture, the Coinshot, and Swan. Swan claimed to me D3 because I discussed my worries about the Gorilla lynch and Falcon scan with him and as a V Mistborn, a second Mistborn claim alarmed him. 

This info sharing was after requesting their consent to broker contact between them. Vulture and Swan flipped V. If Elims really did not know Swan was Mistborn, then neither the Coinshot nor myself could have been leaks. 

I have been very careful to pass Swan off as a high level trust and I think it might be possible to work out that he's Rioter #2 from some of Vulture's arguments but in general, my strategy to conceal Swan was built off the fact that he was am obvious trust so no need to discuss or reference his role or treat him any different from a strong Village read. 

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
like hyena i require justification
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27 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

If so, in my view, E!Coinshot likelihood drops very low. Only four people knew the Mistborn's identity N3—myself, Vulture, the Coinshot, and Swan. Swan claimed to me D3 because I discussed my worries about the Gorilla lynch and Falcon scan with him and as a V Mistborn, a second Mistborn claim alarmed him. 

This info sharing was after requesting their consent to broker contact between them. Vulture and Swan flipped V. If Elims really did not know Swan was Mistborn, then neither the Coinshot nor myself could have been leaks. 

I have been very careful to pass Swan off as a high level trust and I think it might be possible to work out that he's Rioter #2 from some of Vulture's arguments but in general, my strategy to conceal Swan was built off the fact that he was am obvious trust so no need to discuss or reference his role or treat him any different from a strong Village read. 

Are you wondering why elims went for Swan instead of Penguin? Or are you asking why they went for Swan instead of you? Because I think it's the simplest explanation, that Swan's the next highest trusted player after you. And even if they did think you were bluffing about Lurcher#1's targets, there is still Falcon's Lurch to worry about, because they knew she was village. I don't think there was any communication about Falcon's Lurch but I think it's fair to assume that they thought she'd target you. So, Occam's Razor and all, it's likely they wanted to avoid a Lurched attack and went for the 2nd highest trusted read.

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