Long Game 82: Secrets Written in Metal

[---]

I think Archer is more in his elim meta right now. As village he comes forward with actual takes, however questionable they may be imo. as an elim he dances around things and provides analysis that doens't go anywhere. the vote on sart feels more like E!Archer than V!Archer, as does the most recent post where he doesn't make many thoughts actual thoughts.

Ookla the Paranormal

[Szeth_Pancakes]

10 hours ago, Ookla the Wyrmslayer said:

Unclear why Szeth points to Brawnze and says that it would be bad play for Feruchemists to identify their own from the start. Eiwlil known to act that way - cannot recall if Brawnze and Szeth have behaved similarly as teammates. 

It wasn't just that he did it but how that set me off. vil!Archer tends to be a really good villager. What set me off is that he was saying our "vibes are too different." This isn't anywhere close to actual analysis. Then, he responded to Illwei's attack with this post:

19 hours ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

Or. It's an Illwei-Archer team. :P. I really thought I'd get called out for badly distancing with Araris, not Szeth, so that's interesting. 

which feels very much like Archer is trying to draw attention away from himself and onto Illwei and I instead of providing a good defense.

Also, Archer's posts this game have been tiny compared to usual vil!Archer posts, which is something I sometimes see from elim!Archer. It's not much evidence, but it's all we've got right now.

Edit: I realized Illwei just said basically the exact same thing but smarter.

Edit 2:

Quote

They've been living up to their Ookla name so far. 

Now that's just rude. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ookla the Confused

[Kasimir]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Porched said:

I definitely agree with you about the vote being a way to potentially help Sart (although it's also risky, since attention can be deadly D1), but I'm not sure what sort of reactions you would expect from Kas and myself, or why they'd be alignment indicative. You should know that the pair of us can be fairly stubborn, and that you'd be unlikely to get a strong response from either of us. I don't like you singling me out for no reason, and am tempted to vote on you, but I still have reasons to leave my vote where it is.

Right Harmony damn it's 2AM and I have a headache I will return with field logs tomorrow and will just come out and say it. In general I agree with both of this. Neither of us had much of a reaction and in general, you have a track record of non-reaction despite provocation. Sure's hell doesn't stop me from trying, either, but it puts me in the odd position of having tried to elicit a reaction from you despite also thinking that it is in general a futile strategy. So I'm not sure where that tactic was going. (To be clear, slight agreement with Araris.)

It does make me squint a bit at Archer for Araris reasons.

1 hour ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I think Archer is more in his elim meta right now. As village he comes forward with actual takes, however questionable they may be imo. as an elim he dances around things and provides analysis that doens't go anywhere. the vote on sart feels more like E!Archer than V!Archer, as does the most recent post where he doesn't make many thoughts actual thoughts.

Here's the problem: I generally agree with Eiwlil's take more than Szeth's which is bad news because:

Spoiler

It's marginal agreement because my sharpest memory of Elim Archer was garden path Archer. 

23 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

It wasn't just that he did it but how that set me off. vil!Archer tends to be a really good villager. What set me off is that he was saying our "vibes are too different." This isn't anywhere close to actual analysis. Then, he responded to Illwei's attack with this post:

In theory I should also agree with this but:

Quote

I'll join as Brawnze, who was raised in a primitive, insular community that very recently discovered how to make bronze. Feeling morally bound to share their revolutionary discovery with the world, he was dispatched as an ambassador to Luthadel. 

Expect a low post rate from me, and heavy reliance on gut instead of time-intensive analysis. 

Link here for those of you who prefer to have the sign-up post sourced.

I'm in principle disinclined to use a point of playstyle against a player when the fact that he planned on deviating has been signalled before the game. It's the same principle I rely on to highlight I'll be slacking off because I have IRL mid-terms to study for (part-time studies and work, joy) so it would be hypocritical for me to [Edited to add because I apparently derped: request that playstyle deviation be noted for me but not for someone else.]

My point is that this obviously doesn't exonerate Archer. It's just that I don't take this to be especially damning either. (NAI for those of you who like the term: it's plausible he could be Evil, since RNGesus doesn't care about that when you sign up. But it's just as plausible the playstyle shift could be exactly what it's supposed to be.) I do find Archer's interplay with Araris to be more interesting - in a negative way.

I'm not sure Sart is the person I absolutely want to see dead D1 but we'll see how that goes. I have a negative gut read on Szeth as I said earlier - it's nothing solid, just a playstyle similarity to how Szeth played in the one game I saw Evil Szeth in. ...I did say I'd just shrug and roll dice this game if I have no bandwidth, right? Hmmm....

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ookla the Wyrmslayer

[Archer]

What's the opposite of task failed successfully? Where you succeed at doing a thing but that thing backfires...

To clarify. I'm trying to rebuttal Illwei's accusation by arguing that I'm working with very little in the way of meaningful discussion from everyone but Araris and Kas, who I didn't get evil reads from. There's not a lot but half-baked ideas to throw out. It's too early in the game to go hard on me for doing that because I doubt that besides sussing me, you could come up with much better based on legitimate premises. Who's your second sus and why? 

But I have been making real arguments, they just require reading into. See previous post about Szeth, who I am sussing for asking lots of questions that I felt I'd answered, possibly to appear engaged without pushing their own ideas. And the line asking Danex for an opinion so I'd know if they want to pile on a bad Sart wagon, or if they want to avoid being connected to that, presumably by voting for me or Araris. 

I'll be disappointed if the reason, "it's not much evidence, but it's all we've got right now," becomes the rationale behind exing the person with the highest post count, because that's a bit of a cop out D1. There's a reason we've got nothing else. So I'll ask you, Szeth , the same question. Who is your second choice, and why? If we're past the point of throwing out ideas like what might the feruchemical team have etc, let's throw random accusations out and see what comes of it. 

Sart  

26 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

Also, Archer's posts this game have been tiny compared to usual vil!Archer posts, which is something I sometimes see from elim!Archer. It's not much evidence, but it's all we've got right now.

Just to head this line of attack off early, pregame I did allude to the fact that I'd be playing less intensely than usual. It's exam week for me so I'm not laying things out as clearly as I normally would, because I don't have the brainpower to dedicate to that. 

Edit: oh hey, missed some posts. Join me on Szeth, kassss, see what happens >:) 

Also, I took a linguistics class this year, so I know what garden path is. Yay. My rebuttal to that is again, brain is on random BS, go! mode, because I believe that works better on D1 than focusing on individual impregnability, which is what my usual approach is based on. Plus it's easier. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ookla the Paranormal

[Szeth_Pancakes]

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Wyrmslayer said:

Expect a low post rate from me, and heavy reliance on gut instead of time-intensive analysis. 

Whoops - I'd forgotten about that. I'm not changing my vote, since I don't really have a solid read on anyone else, but I will take that into consideration.

Edit: ninja'd by a post that was itself ninja'd. Interesting.

Quote

So I'll ask you, Szeth , the same question. Who is your second choice, and why? If we're past the point of throwing out ideas like what might the feruchemical team have etc, let's throw random accusations out and see what comes of it. 

My second choice would probably be not voting. I don't like throwing a vote on anyone before I have even a little bit of evidence, and that is what I have on Archer right now.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ookla the Confused

[Kasimir]

18 minutes ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

Edit: oh hey, missed some posts. Join me on Szeth, kassss, see what happens >:) 

Yes officer sir, this one right there gives me bad vibes.

I'm staying put for now.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ookla the Wyrmslayer
justification

[Archer]

46 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

My second choice would probably be not voting. I don't like throwing a vote on anyone before I have even a little bit of evidence, and that is what I have on Archer right now.

Illwei: V!Archer would make actual evidence-based arguments

Szeth: You right, V!Archer would do proper evidence-based analysis 

Also Szeth: There's not enough evidence to give takes on

You see my problem. :P. Okay, I genuinely need to get some work done now so I'll catch y'all this evening. 

29 minutes ago, Ookla the Wyrmslayer said:

Yes officer sir, this one right there gives me bad vibes.

It was the >:) face, wasn't it. What if I made it <]:D nice man in a party hat

[danex]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

It was the >:) face, wasn't it. What if I made it <]:D nice man in a party hat

that's not a party hat

that's a magic hat

BURN THE WITCH  ookla the paranormal

[---]

So you think my reasoning is wrong? Do you have a read on me based on my reasoning of you? Or are you just interested in trying to get me off of you?

[Szeth_Pancakes]

6 hours ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

Illwei: V!Archer would make actual evidence-based arguments

Szeth: You right, V!Archer would do proper evidence-based analysis 

Also Szeth: There's not enough evidence to give takes on

I didn’t say you had to provide a take. You usually provide at least one big post on rules analysis D1, and all we got was one small post doing the minimum-possible amount of rules analysis. There’s a ton to speculate on with these rules, and you’ve barely even tried. And yes, I know you said you weren’t going to do much analysis in the signups, and my entire argument there might have been invalid, but you’ve also been kind of a jerk (case in point: the post above) - and while I’m not sure that’s an Archer elim tell, vil!Archer without fail has a decidedly neutral tone. Couple that with the fact that you’ve been sardonically (yes, that word again) deflecting attacks instead of trying to actually reason them out, and you’ve got yourself a convincing argument on its own.

So, yeah. Vote Archer for exe 2021.

[Archer]

45 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

So you think my reasoning is wrong? Do you have a read on me based on my reasoning of you? Or are you just interested in trying to get me off of you?

No, I think you've correctly identified me as an elim. :P. (For legal reasons, that's sarcasm, by the way.) 

I prefer a bad take to no take, but from my end, it's been clear that you've been off about everything so far so... :P. Sart's vote I understand, Danex could go either way. I think you're my second sus right now. Araris is after, since I feel like they're sitting on their easy Sart vote. But I likely wouldn't pursue that very far unless it sticks tommorow. 

Kas is a trust, for being appropriately wary, but not voting for me. :P. 

25 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

I didn’t say you had to provide a take. You usually provide at least one big post on rules analysis D1, and all we got was one small post doing the minimum-possible amount of rules analysis. There’s a ton to speculate on with these rules, and you’ve barely even tried. And yes, I know you said you weren’t going to do much analysis in the signups, and my entire argument there might have been invalid, but you’ve also been kind of a jerk (case in point: the post above) - and while I’m not sure that’s an Archer elim tell, vil!Archer without fail has a decidedly neutral tone. Couple that with the fact that you’ve been sardonically (yes, that word again) deflecting attacks instead of trying to actually reason them out, and you’ve got yourself a convincing argument on its own.

So, yeah. Vote Archer for exe 2021.

I've actually stopped doing that of late, unless I have a gambit suggestion. I'd prefer to leave stuff like saying when exlo is unsaid as a freebie if someone doesn't know what to say for their first post, then to offer some general rules related ideas for discussion. This time it was asking if anyone had thoughts about what roles the feruchemics might have, which I did offer a few ideas on, then left open to the group if anyone wanted to chime in.
I have been playing more concisely and lightheartedly this game, and maybe that's the standard for D1 votes. I apologize if you think it's jerkish. Just be wary of mistaking elim panic for v!me not liking having a single track D1 that they know is a bad one. Without a second viable option, this doesnt even tell us the elims had a preference during the votes. 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

I've actually stopped doing that of late, unless I have a gambit suggestion. I'd prefer to leave stuff like saying when exlo is unsaid as a freebie if someone doesn't know what to say for their first post, then to offer some general rules related ideas for discussion. This time it was asking if anyone had thoughts about what roles the feruchemics might have, which I did offer a few ideas on, then left open to the group if anyone wanted to chime in.
I have been playing more concisely and lightheartedly this game, and maybe that's the standard for D1 votes. I apologize if you think it's jerkish. Just be wary of mistaking elim panic for v!me not liking having a single track D1 that they know is a bad one. Without a second viable option, this doesnt even tell us the elims had a preference during the votes. 

How many games is "of late?"

Also, how could "concisely and lightheartedly" be mistaken for "jerkish?"

(By the way, I don't mean any offense to you as a person when I'm saying you're being jerky. You're very nice other times - that's what makes it seem like such a strong elim tell.)

[Araris Valerian]

I'm sort of confused about what Confused is saying about Archer's tone. It feels pretty normal to me. The content is different, but it feels like normal Archer. And the thing that makes me a little suspicious of Archer is what I mentioned in my previous post. I think I disagree with the justification for most of the votes on Archer (Sart's is the exception, of course), which makes me not want to joint that train.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

Araris is after, since I feel like they're sitting on their easy Sart vote.

I was waiting for the thread to move past the Sart train (or at least for another option to open up) before I did anything with my vote, with which I was trying to do the same thing as you; gauge reactions to an early double-vote. The general reaction is clearly to vote on you, which I would have done, except you picked up several votes rather quickly.

1. Kas votes Sart
2. Araris votes Sart
3. Archer votes Sart
4. Szeth votes Archer
5. Sart votes Archer
6. Illwei votes Archer
7. Danex votes Archer

I guess I have a village read on Szeth for sticking to his guns with the Archer vote. e!Szeth probably wouldn't vote e!Archer, and e!Szeth might have taken the opportunity to back off of v!Archer to gain some credibility on a village flip. Sart's vote is sensible, although not very helpful. Illwei and Archer are probably not e/e, although there could be some weird gambit going on here, since Archer has already mentioned the triple vote thing as a way to defend a teammate. I also think e!Illwei would jump on a chance to vote out v!Archer. I think Danex would probably place that vote with either alignment, but it would still be nice to hear more from them.

I'm going to switch to Illwei for now. If nothing changes by cycle end, I'll vote for Sart over Archer, I think. Mostly because I am sympathetic to Archer's attempt to play more casually, and because of the fact that other members of our community have found that frustrating in the past.

[Sart]

vote count:
sart/ookla the lowercase (1): kas/ookla the wyrmslayer, araris valerian/ookla the porched, archer/ookla the paranormal
mage (0): ilwei/ooklil' the wei
archer/ookla the paranormal (4): szeth_pancakes/ookla the confused, sart/ookla the lowercase, illwei/ooklil' the wei, danex/ookla the quantificational
illwei (1): araris valerian/ookla the porched

no votes:
tani/ookla of anarchy of chaos, mage, archer/ookla the paranormal

normally i'd remove my retaliation vote, but no one else has votes besides archer and me, and i don't want to get voted out day one.

and i'm ninja'd by araris but i think i trust illwei though... so uh... to heck with it, i'm taking the coward's way out. mage. he's the only person who hasn't posted. let the contribution crusade ride again.

[Kasimir]

Still working on my presentation. Field logs be back tomorrow  

• Araris, why are you switching to Illwei?
• Sart, Danex. Opportunist vote. I don't like it. It's true that it's an oddly exposed position for an Elim to go for in a vote though so I'm open to negotiation.
• Potentially agree with Araris that Szeth sticking to his guns doesn't seem like an Elim move. I'm hesitant to Village read that too strongly as my past play history with Szeth generally has my default reaction to Szeth be "welp that's counterintuitive" so I worry my thoughts don't map well onto Szeth's strategic calculus.
• No real read on Archer and Illwei at this time. Obviously they're engaged with the game which makes me feel a bit better about them but this is within Archer and Eiwlil parameters so I'm not going to Village read them off it.

[Archer]

20 hours ago, ookla the quantificational said:

BURN THE WITCH  ookla the paranormal

I'm not a witch!, said ookla the paranormal 

11 hours ago, Ookla the Porched said:

 Mostly because I am sympathetic to Archer's attempt to play more casually, and because of the fact that other members of our community have found that frustrating in the past.

Much appreciated! Although having slept on it, I absolutely understand why people would get bad gut feelings about me this game. That said, I still find some of the lines of attack to be framed suspiciously, but hopefully I'll get to unpack that tonight. 

Szeth It'd be a bad strategic idea to build a CW on someone who is voting for me right now, because I think I have a better chance of getting one of them to drop their votes than I do of building a four vote wagon. If someone wants to surprise me and offer some flexibility, I'd +1 a two person wagon on someone I actually suspect, but for now I think I'm best off adding to the Mage offensive. It's a long shot that they're evil, but if we do kill them, at least the elims will be forced to make an analyzable NK.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Wyrmslayer said:

Potentially agree with Araris that Szeth sticking to his guns doesn't seem like an Elim move. I'm hesitant to Village read that too strongly as my past play history with Szeth generally has my default reaction to Szeth be "welp that's counterintuitive" so I worry my thoughts don't map well onto Szeth's strategic calculus.

Strategic "calculus"?

maybe more like algebra

pre-algebra

also Archer didn't reply to my post

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ookla the Confused

[Araris Valerian]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Wyrmslayer said:

Araris, why are you switching to Illwei?

I don’t really like her reasoning for voting Archer, and I think elim!Illwei would definitely take a chance to vote out v!Archer. I didn't have any read on Sart, and I have a slightly positive read of Archer. I do realize my vote is currently kinda useless, so let’s see if I can fix that.

@Ookla the Paranormal, Sart has pulled off of you, interested in an Illwei vote? Mostly because I’d prefer to vote out someone that has been talking. The elims will have Tani as a no-info kill regardless of whether we vote out Mage.

Doesn't look like Kas or Sart will join me here, but maybe @Ookla the Confused or @ookla the quantificational will consider switching?

Danex isn’t really much better of an option than Mage, but I would consider joining a vote on him as well. Might at least give us an idea about Sart’s and Archer’s alignments.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Porched said:

Doesn't look like Kas or Sart will join me here, but maybe @Ookla the Confused or @ookla the quantificational will consider switching?

I'll consider it. I think I'll keep pushing Archer for now though. I'm honestly still convinced he's elim. It's gonna look really bad for me if he flips village, but if my reasoning is correct, he won't. Hopefully.

[Mat]

About an hour left in the cycle!

• Archer (3): Szeth_Pancakes, Illwei, Danex
• Illwei (1): Araris Valerian
• Mage (2): Sart, Archer
• Danex (1): Kasimir

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ookla the Pianist

[Araris Valerian]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

I'll consider it. I think I'll keep pushing Archer for now though. I'm honestly still convinced he's elim. It's gonna look really bad for me if he flips village, but if my reasoning is correct, he won't. Hopefully.

Hmm. I both dislike your reasoning and in principle am opposed to killing Archer because of a perceived change in playstyle. I also feel like you are doing an excellent job of channeling the power of our illustrious GM to relentlessly tunnel on innocents while being village yourself .

[Szeth_Pancakes]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Porched said:

Hmm. I both dislike your reasoning and in principle am opposed to killing Archer because of a perceived change in playstyle. I also feel like you are doing an excellent job of channeling the power of our illustrious GM to relentlessly tunnel on innocents while being village yourself .

But it's not just because of the change in playstyle. Did you read my post above (closer to the top of the page)? You should it's very convincing.

[Araris Valerian]

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

But it's not just because of the change in playstyle. Did you read my post above (closer to the top of the page)? You should it's very convincing.

Your argument is because of a change in playstyle and a change in tone. You accuse him of deflecting instead of defending, but there isn’t really anything concrete to defend against, except the playsytyle which he already justified. And I don’t think that jokingly pointing out logical inconsistencies in the stances of your accusers counts as being a jerk. That feels like the Archer we all know and want to murder each night.

Edit: You also never really addressed Archer’s point that he made in the joke, or not in a way that I understand at least.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ookla the Porched

[Szeth_Pancakes]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Porched said:

Your argument is because of a change in playstyle and a change in tone. You accuse him of deflecting instead of defending, but there isn’t really anything concrete to defend against, except the playsytyle which he already justified. And I don’t think that jokingly pointing out logical inconsistencies in the stances of your accusers counts as being a jerk. That feels like the Archer we all know and want to murder each night.

aUGH

He was being a bit of a jerk, and there were things to defend against. It felt like he danced around the issue of his playstyle for a while, and someone else actually pointed out that he'd said that pre-game. And I don't really know how to justify that I saw those things as jerkish, but they definitely felt a little bit harsher than if he was just trying to "jokingly pointing out logical inconsistencies." And honestly if Archer flips vil, this series of posts feels very much an elim move to gain trust to me - you're trying to switch my vote off vil!Archer and onto vil!Illwei to gain some easy village points.

*deep breath*

*sigh*

[Araris Valerian]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

- you're trying to switch my vote off vil!Archer and onto vil!Illwei to gain some easy village points.

Um, do you actually think that (prior to seeing the flip)? Because you are both currently voting for Archer, and seemed slightly willing to vote Illwei earlier. I'm currently trying to make my vote not pointless without moving it. Which is honestly not something I've tried a lot before on D1.