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Haelbarde

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Posts posted by Haelbarde

  2. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    :ph34r: 

    Odds on Stick being put in a situation where e!Silver and e!Nerdy are tied, so they last minute hammer Silver for village cred when Silver flips (which doesn't end up being a tie because Kas comes in past last second), and then when e!Nerdy remains under heat, hops on that wagon to maintain village cred through to the end, on the backs of two fellow elims? Puts the kill on Xino because it seemed a safe kill, and neither turn up to find that Xino is now the leading counter wagon, and infact is the lead wagon.

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  4. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

    (4) Nerdy: Stick, Xino, Unknown, Bookwyrm, 
    (2)     TUN: Kas, Mat(t),
    (1) Xino: Aman,

    I feel like Kas and I are the only Nerdy resistance rn and that doesn't seem like a good sign. ED1T: Even Nerdy isn't resisting.

    Like, 6 hours ago, Xino wasn't in any particular danger. And I'm forgetting what cycle Aman was under threat. But anways, 6 hours is pretty late in cycle.

    2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

    My issue is that I can see a newer / low-active player making that decision, but I can't see a player of that same profile killing JNV, Wizard, and Devo. The MO doesn't match unless those kills were all blind luck. There's an argument for Stick, but I feel like that would require a ton of blind faith.

    That is quite true...

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  6. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

    I am inclined to agree with you that they didn't expect the resulting softclear of the people online at the end.

    Will empahise the soft though, as I think enough of all of us to make that the gambit, rather than some sort of e!Matt gambit. I'm not actually reevaluating my village read on either of you, but just flagging that in case I do. Sleep is important, but it would have been nice to get a Stick confirmation in there too... >>

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  10. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted · Edited by Haelbarde

    58 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

    Yeah, that's why I feel I'm either tripping or we're more or less in E!Mat, E!Stick, or E!you world. Or E!me I guess, technically.

    Even if E!Xino, with E!Bookwyrm a compelling teammate, do they make these kill decisions? I hesitate. Like...what's keeping Xino alive right now?

    (Rhetorical)

    You need thread presence. You can't rely on Village indecision.

    Yeah... 

    With how comparatively quiet this cycle has been, I almost miss the chaos that Fifth caused >>

    (You can stop editing your post now Kas :P)

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  11. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    Just now, Amanuensis said:

    I know I have to manually follow every thread and do so as soon as I enter it. Xino not following C3 does indicate honesty (at least that he forgot). I'm just wondering, now that v!Xino remembered enough to briefly let us know he forgot, why is he not posting more?

    They also didn't post basically anything that day on the Shard either. I still have a problem with the immediate follow but then 14 hour delay before telling us they forgot, even though that was likely honest. Seems the sort of thing you say as soon as you realise you forgot.

    It's suggestive that Xino isn't it the active elim, if they are evil.

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  12. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

    This may be me misunderstanding how the forum works and/or being unaware of what settings there are around following threads, but it strike me as odd that Xino followed this thread 17 hours ago (i.e. shortly after this thread was posted), but only posted an "Oops, forgot about last cycle" 3 hours ago.

    Fwiw, they followed C1 and C2 a couple of hours into the cycles, but are not currently following C3.

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  13. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

    This may be me misunderstanding how the forum works and/or being unaware of what settings there are around following threads, but it strike me as odd that Xino followed this thread 17 hours ago (i.e. shortly after this thread was posted), but only posted an "Oops, forgot about last cycle" 3 hours ago.

    Infinite might be in a similar position, posting an hour ago but followed thread 15 hours ago.

    I think without changing settings, normally posting auto follows, but also by default I think you get email updates on every post in a followed thread, which is great for keeping up with thread without logging on (although you miss out on any edits that happen to posts).

    Goes and looks at Shard settings. >>

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  15. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted · Edited by Haelbarde
    Fixed the detailed tally totals

    Didn't get to looking back over those others, but if I'm going to give Aman a stay of execution, it probably makes more sense to test the Xino execution over Nerdy, though neither of these is going to be our active elim. But time nor energy to I have. Will tie things up now to ideally avoid last minute shenanigans again. >>

    Vote Tally (Detailed)
    (3) Aman: Mat(t) {1}, Fifth {1}, Aman {2}, Kas {3}, Exotic {1}, Stick {1}, Aman {3}
    (0) Mat(t): Aman {1}
    (4) Fifth: Kas {1}, TUN {1}, Stick {2}, Exotic {2}, Bookwyrm {1}
    (4) Xino: Kas {2}, Nerdy {1}, Kas {5}, Devo {1}, Hael {2}
    (0) Nerdy: Kas {4}, Hael {1}

    Vote Tally 
    (4) Fifth: TUN, Stick, Exotic, Bookwyrm
    (4) Xino: Nerdy, Kas, Devo, Hael
    (3) Aman: Mat(t), Fifth, Aman

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  16. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

    I ran a script I wrote for LG84 and refined for LG90, that's designed to extract timestamps from posts. The reason I like it is it gives us timestamps down to the seconds, which can be useful in a fast-paced EoD situation.

     

    6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

    Rules for Reading this Post:

    1. Please do not get offended. I am upset and that is clear. However, I do not harbor any ill will toward anyone in the game. I do not take this personally. I am just frustrated with this constantly repeating scenario and I'm attempting to deal with it in the most healthy way I can.
    2. Please do not read this post if you aren't willing to consider v!me. If you do read it, read it again after my flip to refresh your memory. If you don't, definitely read it after my flip.
    3. Please do not respond to this post. I'm logging out as soon as I send it and I am not logging back in until I'm dead. Call it a rage quit. Call it a protest. IRDC. Just do not waste any more time on my slot.

    Thanks for both these posts, very helpful for trying to work out the mess that was the last 15 minutes of cycle.

    Aman's post makes some amount of sense to me, though I do think it's fair criticism based on Kas' analysis that the lack of vote on Silver, given the time remaining in thread when Stick and Kas posted their votes. So I'm dubious about your actual intent to have Silver executed. Feels like the Nerdy vote was about reading e!Fifth, and sussing Fifth voting everywhere but Nerdy.  

    ...Though you do say that Nerdy and Xino both could be evil with Silver. With Nerdy being the primary execution option, shifting there and staying there would be reasonable. So yeah, I think on the whole I can understand v!Aman. And while e!Aman could totally pull off intentionally saving an ally, then surviving a cycle or two in thread to muddy waters, I'm willing to trust his claims of trying to be casual about playing for the most part. With I think Fifth's choices being... interesting... without having had the bandwidth to review them properly, a decision to avoid Nerdy could potentially be something. Enough that I think I'm willing to put a vote down on Nerdy for the moment and see what happens. 

    Vote Tally (Detailed)
    (3) Aman: Mat(t) {1}, Fifth {1}, Aman {2}, Kas {3}, Exotic {1}, Stick {1}, Aman {3}
    (0) Mat(t): Aman {1}
    (4) Fifth: Kas {1}, TUN {1}, Stick {2}, Exotic {2}, Bookwyrm {1}
    (2) Xino: Kas {2}, Nerdy {1}, Kas {5}
    (1) Nerdy: Kas {4}, Hael {1}

    Vote Tally 
    (4) Fifth: TUN, Stick, Exotic, Bookwyrm
    (3) Aman: Mat(t), Fifth, Aman
    (2) Xino: Nerdy, Kas
    (1) Nerdy: Hael

    Now to try and process Fifth and/or Matt, and/or Xino to see if I should actually be changing my vote. >>

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  17. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

    @Haelbarde @_Stick_

    ...Do you get the feeling you are just there, watching a three-way Duel of the Fates?

    Because kinda yes rn :|

    Somewhat, though I'm still reeling and/or exhausted from last cycle so feel like I'm barely language processing. Well not quite, but I'm gonna be out of service for the next few hours for sure. I did the mini painting in the wrong order today I think >> 

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  19. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    Okay, now that is interesting. Though it feels like boy who cried wolf or something, Silvereye was my other candidate for someone with doc access based on their one post, but I'd gotten to the point of convincing myself that either they were the Winzik, or were a spy, which was a pretty terrible place to be. Boy am I glad to not regret my vote... 

    But also, did we really have to have 24 posts and 12 votes happen in the last 15 minutes of cycle?!

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  22. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

    Silvereye was the other iso I needed to do

    Not actually a very hard ISO to do >> 

    I'm finding myself really divided on the Silvereye execution. There's things I like about it, things I don't, and the dice gods didn't respond when I asked for comment. 

    I haven't actually iso'd Devo yet, but that seemed less pressing. I'll do that next cycle.

    ...

    Ack, what's happening :ph34r: 

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  23. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    The thread is long and I keep getting distracted >>

    My vibe reads didn't really shift a ton. Bookwyrm I was fairly happy with, was about the extent of my thoughts on that. Fifth and Silverye have been absent, and Infinite hadn't really done much. Mat(t) I remain mixed on. Was liking some of it, but not enough to shift the dial atm. Didn't really process anything Devo or Wiz was saying, while I'd like more from TUN. Finally, discussions happening did remind me that I will really need to try my best to remain critical of Aman and Kas' posts, but that's not a problem I've the energy for this cycle.

    9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

    I >>

    Ok look I need some help here I'm sorry :P And it's not just you, if I'm right, it's everyone >>

    It is fair that I might be very very tired but like, can I just check some vcs in my notes against yours.

    Is there a reason we are asking repeatedly about ties?

    Because this looks to me like the vc pre-swap so there's...IDK, no reason to bother? With vote manip or anything?

    IDK I just wonder about what we are all smoking because we kept saying there's a tie and there wasn't one even prior to my grumpy switch.

    >> I... am not sure I know how that happened. I definitely forgot that Aman had moved his vote to Dannex. I think I got confused by the language others were using around the execution. Aman's "consolidate on Dannex" made me think it was a tie, although that doesn't really imply that. Then Mat(t) talking about it sounded like he didn't want to act as tiebreaker. After that, I was more worried about trying to talk you back off the edge, and didn't bother to go back and double check the vote tally to work out that actually you were fine.  

    8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

    Low key tempted to theorise a Devo-Aman-Mat-Hael Elim team where all of them just share the same confusion/tainted vc in the doc.

    It'd be a fun team :ph34r: 

    6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

    In theory yes. There was Mint Heron-gate, though I don't recall if Hael intervened if things got dicey for Rae.

    I checked the final vote counts and it didn't look like Mint Heron got much heat by end of any particular cycle, other than the cycle in which I died, in which I was one of the 2 votes on Mint Heron that wasn't enough to save me from 3 votes. I definitely was advocating not night killing them for the first few cycles, but still not sure if I did anything in thread. 

    5 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

    Tbh I want to know where Fifth and Hael stand with regards to each other and whether they are willing to bus each other. Neither is here at the moment though. 
    Do you have anybody in mind? 

    Fifth hasn't said basically anything this turn, and I've yet to review their last cycle posts. Though they're still at goodish, given more players have floated to goodish or higher, and I've not updated their position, more likely to drop them to meh at this stage, pending further review. Without looking at it, I wouldn't not vote Fifth at this stage.

    4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

     

    @Amanuensis - Like, it only just crashed down on me how utterly kayana I find that post?

    Translated:

    "Fifth and Dannex are V/V or E/E. Fifth maybe wants to kill Danex/save Kas, with four people wanting to do that, they can't all be Evil. Also Danex looks maybe V. So I'll vote Fifth because he's either Evil with Kas or killing V!Danex."

    Like...sis you just sayd you thought Sannex and Fifth are V/V or E/E? And you immediately pivot to saying it's E!Fifth/E!Kas or potentially E!Fifth trying to kill V!Danex? Like...how does that follow? I know how much Devo thinks through her moves in a doc, and I'd argue she's careful about her votes and thread posts. It's hard for me to see how E!Devo is ok with that kind of post, even trying to gerrymander a vote (as Stick points out, it's not a good distancing vote because it's got bad set-up, so in this world, why does E!Devo vote Fifth anyway?)

    I... think I quoted this because I wanted to think on it further. I guess I'll do the Devo iso next then.

    Going to post this now, and dive back in. I appreciate I'm running low on time though. Glancing at the actual vote tally, on the whole the choices feel weird. Silvereye was the other iso I needed to do, so I'll do that too. Before those two iso, I'd be feeling more included to join Stick on TUN, of any of the existing trains - I'd been meh about Silvereye last I looked, I do have Nerdy as elim reading, but... it's just really not that fun an intro to SE to kill them so early in an early game, so more out of principle I'd rather avoid it, otherwise that is probably my preferred choice from a suspicion stand point. Well, actually I'd rather Almond, but same problem, and they're otherwise not an option today.

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  24. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

    What vote?

    I don't vote unless I'm pretty confident in it (excepting joke votes like Mat, which I often withdraw, and the last LG, where I made a point to vote more).

    If everyone voted only if they felt confident in their vote, almost no one would vote ever. It's all the low info, gut feeling, uncertain votes that help bring the game to the point where you can start making those confident votes. 

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  25. Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

    in Sanderson Elimination

    Posted · Edited by Haelbarde
    Infinite turned up, so is no longer absent, so should be in meh as of end of page 2.

    1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

    Apologies, read some of thread when I woke up, but then got distracted painting minis. :ph34r: Going to go reread thread and collect my thoughts. 

    It's taking awhile for me to get through, so posting an inprogress report, just got to the end of page 2.

    First off, I'm glad we have reached the end of Ookla season and names have all returned to normal! Or mostly anyhow. 

    Regarding JNV

    I never really mused on the kill beyond calling out that I sus'd him as IC based on thread, to flag it as a potential option. To build on that, I figure the options were:
    1. Random Kill
    2. Linguistic Analysis 
    3. Based on C1 posts

    1. Random Kill - Not impossible, as JNV would have been a fairly low info kill, given they only posted 2-3 times. In this scenario, they just go lucky, but I'm not sure that there's much more to go on. I may have distracted from speculation on that by my suggesting option 3 at the start of cycle, so just flagging that for consideration if that hadn't played out already.
    2. Linguistic Analysis - Not something to really speculate on in thread. The other IC/Winzik can make that judgment for themselves if that was likely or not, based on the doc. 
    3. Based on C1 posts - As indicated at the start of this cycle, I think JNV posts were telling enough to put good odds on them being IC. Certainly based on reactions, as well as past memories, not sure that that sort of analysis is common. I feel Aman and Kas have plenty enough other tools in their toolbox anyway that it doesn't suit their style (particularly if they're both trying to play more casual these days). Feels a bit more like something in Fifth or Devotary's wheelhouse. I don't really know anyone else in this game well enough to comment. 

    Moving on to the update player vibes/reads. As I started with, this is only as of the end of page 2. I'm flagging Devo, and particulary Wiz of needing more care given to reading their posts to evaluate my position on them.

    Player Vibes
    Village
    - Strong: Hael
    - Moderate: Stick
    - Slight: Kas, Aman
    Neutral
    - Goodish: Fifth, Xino (Forgotten),  Bookwyrm (Perpetual), 
    - Meh: Silvereye (Wind), Infinite
    - Badish: Devo, Wiz (Myopic), TUN (Unknown), Mat (Tall)
    Elim
    - Slight: Exotic, Nerdy
    - Moderate:
    - Strong:
    Absent
    - 

    Vibe movements:

    • Aman and Kas: Highly active in thread, productive discussions and analysis. I'm conscious that both are great at doing that whether village or not, and they're both players I'm going to have a blindspot for. Putting them as village leaning for the moment, but I am going to have constantly reevaluate that I think. I'd consider upping Kas to moderate for the seeming unflinchably toe the line of the execution, only I don't think it's quite enough to clear him just yet. 
    • Stick: I'm liking all their posts, and their approach feels right to me. Because that's resonating with me, without having spotted any red flags (not that I've searched deeply for them), putting them up to moderate village.
    • Mat(t): They're feeling like last game. Which I was thinking was a good thing, but then he was E/E with me last game so... I should probably go through his posts more critically, but for the moment just based on feelings, dropping him down to badish vibes.
    • Xino and eXotic: I feel uncomfortable with Exotic's vote on Xino. Without noticably following C1, just jumping in with a vote on Xino as their first post, as a new member of SE and claiming to be "too new" doesn't really feel like a clueless new villager move. I could see elim discussion of Kas' Xino vote in doc being like "yeah, we're happy for Xino to be executed", thus prompting the follow on vote from Exotic. Makes me lean elim on Exotic, and thus village on Xino, though I'd rather avoid executing Exotic so early in the game given it's their first game, and their first post. Xino hasn't done enough to actually get bumped into Slight Village though, so just moves to goodish vibes.
    • Nerdy: I probably feel weirder about the Exotic post, but I already had Nerdy at badish, and their Xino post feels odd. Feels like one of the two is E, but probably not both. If neither, I'm very confused :ph34r:
    • Bookwyrm: As a player with only 5 games under their belt, they're feeling like the right sort of confused and uncertain of how to proceed. Happy enough to bump them up to goodish, and/or slight village if they continue posting without any particular red flags.
    10 hours ago, Kasimir said:
      Reveal hidden contents

     

    On my own end, this is what the generator gives me:

    Sequence: 5 - 8 - 1 - 5

    Under KOTOR 2 rules, I believe you win due to tablemaxxing?

    I really need to get back to this, and RP that game. But (re)reads first.

    8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

    PSA for all newer players: Please stop voting the person who already has votes just because they already have votes. Thanks!

    Will reread and respond and stuff in a bit

    I forget why I quoted this. I think it was part of my "I need to reread his posts" thing. I agree with the sentiment here at least. 

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