I just now realized that this is referring to me. My final thoughts on the D1 lynch were that Gears could reasonably be an elim (and in fact his voting patterns would make sense for an elim) if the elims have vote manipulation. Since Gears has been a bit more suspicious since then, I have no qualms voting for him right now.
And now a scheduled analysis of Elbereth:
I think I pretty much agree with everything here. NAI
More agreement. NAI
What about the value of catching an eliminator? A roleblocker can be much less certain about such things.
1. I’m assuming RI stands for role indicative? In which case, why do you care?
2. Could you explain why you think Abrasion should be used at that particular time?
No one should need a reason to get on and say something beyond “oh look the game started!” - would you have posted any faster if you saw you had a vote on you? How many people read the thread and then just don’t bother to post unless they have a vote in them?
Also, Straw already tagged everyone in his opening post. Don’t need a vote in order to tag people.
How will we get mild suspicions if not by voting? Also, I’ve got one mild suspicion already!
TJ Shade. Ventyl.
Probably the only thing of note here is the interaction with Striker. But this probably comes more out of Striker not having played as many games where I've been advocating against poke votes. I could easily see this as both a V/E or an E/E interaction. The vote on Ventyl is unexplained, but that's fine. NAI
Nah, I’d still want you to be helpful. Helpful is good!
That is the theory behind poke votes, yes. I happen to be of the opinion that poke votes aren’t in fact useful whatsoever, as briefly laid out by the questions to Striker in my previous post. If I decided to vote you before you posted, would that make you any more likely or unlikely to post? Would you feel pressure from a single vote that I’d probably take off as soon as you posted?
Also, voting on people who are around to discuss and talk is way more useful and interesting and discussion is my primary win condition.
I agree there’s uncertainty in both cases, but I still think a redirect is much more informative. @Straw you probably clarified this but I’m lazy, if you redirect someone who took no action are you told that it’s a success or a failure or?
Inexperience is fine! I like new opinions! And I agree completely - voting someone for no purpose is meaningless, because there’s nothing for the person in question to respond to nor do they feel particularly pressured by a vote that isn’t out there with intent to lynch. (does someone want to pull up Kas’ LG12 post that’s vaguely relevant here) (I should just rewrite a nicer version of that shouldn’t I) And just as importantly, it doesn’t create any discussion! Because you’re right, talking is exactly how we get suspicions, but we need some way to create that discussion and make it alignment-indicative (like roles discussion generally isn’t).
Which is why my votes do have intent to lynch, and are as non-random as possible. Ventyl now has two votes on him! What do people think about that? Do people start a counterwagon? Do they frown disapprovingly at me and Araris? Regardless of what happens, he’s now actually under pressure and that is what creates alignment indicative discussion!
EDIT: and @Ventyl, it’s a nice acronym but why do you care what roles other people have. What makes you think that none of the role discussion isn’t indicative, and why is that something you’re thinking about?
I think the entire content of this post is meta stuff that I agree with. Still NAI (sadly).
I mean. I said people shouldn’t claim but oookay. I... struggle to see this from an elim perspective at the moment, anyone else have thoughts there?
Ventyl. Matrim for that latest post - not because it’s wrong, Ventyl could be doing a very clever elim play right now, but. It seems much more likely to be village, and that warning feels a bit like damage control from an elim trying to prevent a trust circle from happening / keep Ventyl from looking quite as good as he does now.
I'll give El a village read here. This is a pretty aggressive vote change (and backing off on Ventyl, who El wanted lynch pressure on). We know Ventyl to be village, and I think several people have soft-cleared Matrim (myself included). But I think village!El is more likely to do this than Elim!El.
2. Are you sure there’s a good reason for them? Or is it just that it’s much easier to vote on someone who’s not here yet than someone who’s already around and might argue back?
3. So what you’re saying then is that poke votes aren’t really about whether someone’s posted, they’re just “vote a person basically at random and don’t take your vote off until you’re satisfied” which is, notably, exactly what I do. I just do it within the pool of people already here because that makes way more discussion because the person is already around to respond and talk!
4. Only sort of agreed here - I think it’s more likely than Gears might think, but I will note that like 7/10 surges are roleblocks or redirects of some sort. Which. Is a lot. So there’s more uncertainty this game than usual.
Good points all around. More interaction between El and Striker, and it's a bit more relevant here. El basically disagrees with both Gears and Striker here. Given that this is a relatively minor comment, I doubt it's distancing, so this is a very slight village read.
Hm. Not sure what I think about that yet.
Do you think that post made him more likely to be village or evil?
More aggressiveness from El.
not clear to almost everyone in this thread at least no one is arguing about whether to lynch at all
very very very overexcited villager - haven't been village in six months and i have missed this even more than expected (!!!). expect this level of activity / enthusiasm to continue for.... a while.
also is not the whole thing about prewritten posts that they give no indication towards alignment? like sure analysis written after is more useful to the village but that is a meta argument against prewritten posts and not really indicative of gears either way. unless you think he would have chosen whether or not to post it based on his alignment?
also, what do you think about matrim atm?
Nothing will happen if you just wait and see though. Vote me! See what people say about it! Discussion is your friend, if you're village, and votes cause so much more discussion and so much more productive discussion than just sitting around waiting for things to happen.
You say it so much better in so many fewer words.
I don’t know. I would definitely recommend telling someone through PMs, because that information could be extremely useful later, and probably confronting the person to see what they have to say. Whether to do it in thread I think is trickier, and ideally you’d have the redirecter in contact with a scanner to tie things up nicely without the possibility of revealing a village kill role.
But mostly I think it depends on how much people end up using their roleblocks and redirects. If they’re relatively rare (which I’d... probably recommend? Chaos is bad for the village, generally) (would appreciate further thoughts on that), then it’s absolutely worth bringing up in thread - there’s still chance for it to be wrong, but a high enough chance to catch an elim that I think it’s worth it. But if redirects and roleblocks are flying around like confetti, the information is much less useful (depending on the game state, too - eg if there are six players left, definitely claim and mechanically you may well be able to work out what happened; that’s a lot harder with 24).
Wait, what? Why?
@Frozen Mint get in here
El here quotes the post that ultimately (IMO) is responsible for Striker getting lynched. This is before the two initial votes that land on Striker, though.
Orr the person who put in the kill hit someone with Abrasion. Or someone hit the target with Tension. Not to mention that kill type won’t be distinguished, so if someone uses Division that night and one of the kills is blocked, no one except the elims and the kill role would even know. Both situations create plenty of false positives, is my point, and I don’t think Transportation is worse than Adhesion in that respect.
If you prewrote a post and found out you were evil, would you change it? Do you think there were any bad strategies in Gears’ analysis? Why would it be a better idea to bring up bad strategies than to try to seem village and helpful - ie if there were bad ideas in there wouldn’t they be caught anyway, and all Gears would get is a lot more suspicion?
Re: pokevotes: (feel free to ignore this; Mage is entirely correct that it’s a pretty NAI topic but I’m going to voice my opinions anyway because apparently that’s just how I am ) It’s not a particularly new debate, it’s just that it used to be subsumed into the “do we have a d1 lynch” debate, and after that it was basically Araris arguing against them and no one else. Which made it less a debate and more a “what the heck is Araris doing and is it suspicious?” thing, which was very sad.
It’s interesting to know that votes actually motivate you to post! I don’t think I’ve heard anyone say that yet. Is that true for poke votes before you’ve even posted at all, too? Because I can see it later in the game, certainly, but I still struggle to see someone look at the thread for the first time and then just decide not to post, whether or not they have a vote on them.
(And I’m not going to go on more about this but I also very much think that poke votes of that kind are way less useful and give the elims the ability to hide behind not having opinions or doing anything risky like being suspicious. Will expand on that only if asked.)
So you like role analysis when it’s directed at how the village can use them, but not general role analysis. Which would you say Gears’ falls into?
I like this. Feels extremely village. I don’t necessarily agree - there are times when an elim might be more likely to ask about something in their doc but I don’t think this was one of those times - but it’s a really natural progression of thought.
@Kynedath what’s your conclusion on Matrim, then? You were suspicious of him and then trusted him - did those equal out into a neutral read? Are you leaning village on him?
My vote is staying where it is for the moment, since Matrim’s explanation wasn’t especially convincing to me. There isn’t any further information I can get there, but... @Matrim's Dice what do you think of Gears being the top lynch candidate right now? What’s your own read on him?
El disagrees with Sart (I concur here), more NAI stuff, and trying to see if others are willing to vote on Matrim.
The following is not a post by Elbereth, but by Truthwatcher:
I think this post may actually be the source of a lot of the vague suspicion of Elbereth that has been floating around.
Back to super long El posts :
Hey, this is a good summary! Do you have opinions on anyone beyond Araris? You've summed up each player nicely, but what do you think about those summaries? Do any of them make you feel like the player is good? Are any of them beyond Araris suspicious?
Re: your summary of me, 1) my voting isn't random (well, the vote on TJ was, but the other two have had reasoning!), and 2) you're not wrong, in that it puts pressure on people who are around and active. And I won't deny there are problems with that, since people who are active just above the inactivity filter line can sneak under the radar very easily this way - but I do think it's worth it, because even if those lurkers are evil, voting for them generates far less discussion and is thus much less useful in determining the alignment of anyone but the person who ends up voted out. (I would encourage village kill roles to look closely at that group of low posters as potential targets, though.)
Do you think Matrim's warning about Ventyl is alignment-indicative? Do you think he would not have made the same post as an elim? (I agree that the context of the previous LG makes that post seem very justified/I no longer find it suspicious, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it makes him look village.)
Mhmm, that's a very fair point. Focusing on activity is definitely best for discussion, but it only works if most people are in fact active.
Because they (and I) think it's best for the village to play that way.
You've roleclaimed that you have a role, Ventyl. This game isn't role madness - I think it very likely that more than half the players are roleless, in fact, and the elims want to find and kill all the village KRs as soon as possible. Which now includes you.
Oh certainly, I'm not trying to say that votes-with-intention are something only villagers do (although I think they're something that could be AI if the meta moved away from poke votes somewhat - ie poking inactives is an easy vote that doesn't require developing suspicion which is hard for elims thus they're more likely to do it), just that they're more useful to the village no matter who casts them. And elims casting them is especially useful since we can look back on those votes later once an elim dies and be much more certain about our conclusions from them.
I... hm. I'm not sure I'd be opposed to a lynch on TJ today. (Not sure because I'd rather give him another day or so to help discussion, but this brought to my attention that he's been really flying under my radar. If it weren't such a pain, I'd look through his playstyle for past games, because I could very easily see the suspicion on Striker/Ash being an elim looking for some kind of suspicion somewhere.)
Welcome! As TJ said, RP is usually very separate from game discussion. Thanks for posting something, and please post any thoughts you have even if you feel like they're silly or people have already said them - the best thing you can do for the village is say what you think!
Xino - not here yet. Null read. @xinoehp512
Orlok - neutral, verging on mild suspicion (focus on me & Gears feels weird). Want to see further posts.
Gears - mild village. Liked his response to my vote on TJ, and he seems similar to the few cycles of the recent QF I read (where I assume he was village, though I'm realizing right now that I don't know that for sure)
Ash - neutral. Lots of activity (love it! please keep it up!) but very little in the way of suspicions or commenting on others' interactions. Content generally seems very NAI.
Eternum - very mild village. Only really have the one AI post to go on, but it's a good one, I think - lots of reads and thoughts. @Eternum, what made you go from 'Ventyl reads village' to 'confused about Ventyl' to voting on him? I'm particularly interested in the latter transition.
Striker - ehhh. Very mild village, probably - feels like normal D1 Striker, ie I'm gut reading him as mildly suspicious in a very particular way, which happens every game. Mostly reserving judgement here.
Matrim - mild evil. His response to Ventyl's claim, and then me asking him about that response, didn't feel quite genuine to me.
Joe - null read, looking forward to him being around.
Araris - null read, being the same himself as always. Reserving judgement.
TJ - very mild evil read, based on the post Mage pointed out / gut. I'd like to go back and look at his posts; I'd somewhat prefer to leave him alive another day but would not be strictly opposed to that lynch.
Pyro - null? Hasn't posted much, and nothing AI that I remember. Would like to see a vote or reads from him.
Kyn - mild village. Liked his post re: Matrim and then his response to my question about that.
Ventyl - moderate village. Difficult to see a world where an elim draws that much attention to himself.
Silber - null, hasn't posted anything AI yet. Looking forward to him being around.
Mage - neutral/very mild village. Liked him poking TJ, I think.
Mint - null, hasn't posted. @Frozen Mint come playyyy
Lahilt - null/neutral. New and trying to participate! Would love to see a vote or a read from them.
Truthwatcher - null/neutral. Clearly paying attention and loved the player summary - I'd like to see some reads from them as well.
Fifth - null, hasn't posted. @Fifth Scholar COME PLAY ...very surprised to see that he visited the site four hours ago and didn't check in. Please do that.
Devotary - neutral. Have never been able to read her, and don't really expect that to change, but I'd love to see a vote nonetheless.
Illwei - very mild village. New and trying to participate! I liked the thought process on Ventyl - it seemed very natural. Would love to see a read or two!
Sart - neutral. Didn't particularly agree with his post, but didn't find it very AI either. Reserving judgement.
Zillah - hasn't posted, I think? If she has, I missed it.
Not here yet: Xino, Joe, Silber, Mint, Fifth, Zillah
Here but not enough info to tell anything: Araris, Pyro, Lahilt, Truthwatcher
Mild evil: Matrim
Very mild evil: Orlok, TJ
Neutral read: Ash, Devotary, Sart
Very mild village: Illwei, Mage, Eternum, Striker
Mild village: Kynedath, Gears
Moderate village: Ventyl
I'm not particularly interested in lynching anyone from my village lists today, but that applies especially to Striker (because he's just Like That D1 so I want to give him a bit of time) and Ventyl (bc I really don't think he's evil atm). I'm also against lynching Araris (because people suspect him for his playstyle far too often and I will defend him until and unless he does actually suspicious stuff), Illwei/Lahilt/Truthwatcher (because they're relatively new and trying to interact and I want to encourage that), or anyone who's said 'hello I'm here I'll post when I can' (ie Joe and Silber). Those are the people I'll actively defend.
From what I can tell, we're now at a 4-way tie of 2 votes between Gears, Striker, Ventyl, and TJ. Of those, TJ Shade is the one I would be by far most okay with going after (though if anyone wants to move to Matrim with me I would be even more fine with that ).
I think this post is only really helpful if El flips elim (which up to this point in the analysis, I find mildly doubtful). I'd probably want to lynch Mage and/or Kynedath if El flipped elim, based on this post. Still, I'll give a mild village read for breaking the 4-way tie, even if it sort leaned toward helping an elim. The defense of Striker is sort of NAI, although I could understand anyone who reads it as elim.
Welcome to SE.
Wanting your votes to have reasoning is good! But multiple people have had reasoning for their votes, and in my opinion yours have seemed flimsy less in a 'it's D1 I'll take anything' sort of way and more a 'I need to find some excuse for voting' which much more often comes from an eliminator perspective, I think.
I don't think you've been flying under the radar generally, and I'm certainly not accusing you of lurking - I'm saying you've flown under my radar. You've been about as active as expected, you've said reasonable things, and I haven't looked closer than that. (The comparison to Mint saying the same phrase is... mildly weird to me. Not sure what to think of that; would appreciate outside opinions since I'm obviously biased here.)
He knows he's going to be killed tonight now. I think it's perfectly plausible from village!Ventyl's perspective not to realize that initially. You're reasoning as if he knew what the effects of his claim would be when he claimed, whereas I think it's entirely understandable - and indeed more likely - that he just didn't realize that by 'don't roleclaim' people meant KR rather than 'don't claim a specific role'. I tend to think that cleverness like that does exist, but it's much more rare than most people think.
Her, and no. And please don't announce in thread who you're going to squire. As others have said. I'm curious why you chose me, though?
@Frozen Mint YAY. And you don't have to be as active - we've got 48 hour days for a reason. (And honestly, thank goodness. Knowing there's still 20ish hours left in the cycle is so nice and relaxing.) Thank you for having reads!
I think I have other comments, but I'm writing this while at D&D so will post those later if I think of them.
The primary meat of this post is El is sticking to her vote on TJ, which I read as slightly village. Elim El probably would also stick to her guns here, but I do think it's more of a village play.
What does the bolded part mean, I’m confused.
That argument doesn’t really... work? It’s not that elims don’t try to make votes look as reasoned and villagery as possible. It’s just that when you know everyone’s alignment, finding things to be suspicious of is much, much harder. And so their reasoning is often more flawed or flimsy. And sure, you could’ve hidden in those votes. I don’t think it’s particularly alignment indicative that you chose not to, personally - you want to show (regardless of your alignment) that you’re active and trying to solve the game and cause discussion. And you could argue that “hey it’s just D1, everyone has shoddy reasoning”. And that’s not wrong (including my own reasoning; I wouldn’t lynch you for this if we were four cycles in! ), but I think that your reasoning in particular is suspicious in a way most others’ aren’t. (I would compare it to Striker’s, I think, in that your suspicions seem to be for things that seem completely NAI to me. But with Striker that’s a consistent pattern for me D1, which isn’t the case at present with you.)
Mm. Orlok is, I think, and everyone else is just... carefully avoiding the topic, for the last couple pages. I’m not sure what I think of that yet. (fake edit: also Matrim and Ash, apparently )
A claim wouldn’t necessarily dissuade me, though - Ventyl isn’t my strongest village read just because he claimed. It’s the way he claimed that’s important.
That said, if I have time tonight I’m going to go back through the QF and look at your behavior that D1, I think - it’s certainly possible that this is just your meta. But in the absence of that knowledge, your behavior feels suspicious to me.
*reloads page* *sighs*
I can’t convey how uninterested I am in a Striker lynch today. His D1 is always like this. Lynch him tomorrow, fine, I don’t care, but of all the people up for the vote at the moment he’s... well, I guess he’s the one I’d second least want to see gone, after Ventyl. Can we not?
That last post of Matrim’s reads a little more villagey, btw.
We have a rehashing of El's reluctance to lynch Striker. Interesting thought development on Matrim, but I'm not really sure that it reads village.
That’s basically the exact opposite of his current argument of “wouldn’t I have hidden in the votes already there instead of bandwagoning?”. What changed?
@TJ Shade, if you want things to respond to, here are some questions:
Do you think there are any elims currently voting on you? Who do you think is most likely to be one?
There have been several vote trains at this point. Look beyond your own survival - analyze those! If anyone who’s had more than 2 votes this cycle is evil, who do you think it is? What movements on or off of wagons have you felt were especially suspicious?
There’s only so far you can get in defending yourself. It’s much more useful to get your reads out there and do your analysis, and let people use that to judge your alignment. (That’s why I’m pretty much ignoring Orlok’s suspicion, by the way - can’t defend unless he gives reasons, and all he’s said so far is that I’m trying too hard. Which I’m not going to stop doing, so hopefully it’s just eventually clear that I’m probably village, and until then there’s not much point in focusing on it.)
El comes out a lot stronger against TJ here, which I read strongly village. (Again, this is all up against the Striker lynch, so someone could read this differently, but I think there's a level of aggressiveness here that Elim!El might not have, even when trying to save a teammate.
First off, I'm sorry my playstyle irks you - I do try to pressure people and cause discussion, but try my best to do so in a way that isn't annoying or bothersome. If you have any specific things that you don't like or suggestions for me, please let me know. (that applies to anyone; I really enjoy this playstyle but it is relatively new to me and if it's problematic for people I want to fix that) (also I just came off of the MU championships game, and it's entirely possible I picked up some habits/aggression there without really realizing. I'll try to be careful about that going forward)
I've changed my votes more than most, but I wouldn't characterize it as wildly - though it is worth noting I generally don't like not having a vote placed somewhere. I voted TJ to get discussion going, and changed off him as soon as I had an actual suspect - Ventyl, for talking about whether posts were role-indicative. He then claimed in a way I felt was extremely villagery, so I took my vote off of him and instead put it on Matrim, whose response to Ventyl's claim read as off to me. That stayed for quite a while, and then sometime earlier today I moved to TJ because my vote on Matrim wasn't going anywhere and I wanted to see what would happen if I pushed someone out of the 2-2-2-2(?) tie. I've also done my best to explain all my votes except the first, so I wouldn't call them gut reads.
I think your read on Gears is very solidly reasoned - basically 'mild village because no red flags + very like the last QF, in which he was good'. Could you explain your reasoning a bit more on Ventyl? That is - you give him a slight elim lean, but I don't know what in your summary inclines you towards that. As opposed to the 'read because X' that's so clear with the Gears analysis, your read on Ventyl seems to be a very separated 'facts' 'read', if that makes sense. Is it his reaction to the votes on him? Is it his claim? Just gut / tone?
This is mostly meta discussion, along with prodding Ash for more stuff. Since Ash is village, that interaction reads village to me.
Yes, that was my point! Your defense of your vote on Ash was essentially 'but why would I have done that when I could've just hidden in the wagons already formed? why would I do something that's a known elim tell?' and yet here (and in the QF post I quoted) you're explicitly saying that jumping on wagons is something you view as elim-y. That's a pretty significant contradiction.
I mean. Yes, I saw that happen, especially re: the Xino vote. (I would say 'a lot' is an exaggeration, though. Two instances in a single game is decidedly not statistically significant.) And if you flip good, I'll be more careful in the future. But I can say that I personally would not have suspected you for either of those votes, nor did I particularly think they were flimsy. The Xino vote was on very thin grounds, yes, but you were also very explicit in saying that, and that you didn't have anything better. And with the state of that game at the time, I completely agree. With this game, however, I felt that your vote on Ash came at a time where far more alignment-indicative discussion had occurred than in the QF, and so expected somewhat more reasoning from you which the suspicion of Ash and Striker(?) did not deliver.
There's also.... I really need to ISO you if time permits. Going to hold onto the other thing that pings me about this paragraph until I can confirm it's not just my brain making stuff up.
Don't have anything to say about them, but I do like your comments about the vote trains and the people voting on you.
Leaving the Striker read there just to note it.
I'm somewhat confused by your read on Araris, especially when contrasted with the one on Devotary - yes, it's entirely possible that Araris is hiding behind his normal style. (Also, I'm pretty sure his vote on Devotary was not just that she didn't already have a vote on her? I'll go back and check but I'm nearly certain that's not the case.) But shouldn't that, like with Devotary, make him a null read? What makes you lean mild elim on him?
Sooo first off, you left out a part of Eternum's post where he seemed to change from the gut village read to 'confusion'. Secondly, he explained in the next post you quoted exactly why he voted Ventyl despite that village read. So why does 'he voted on Ventyl despite having a gut village on him' seem suspicious to you? Does it seem suspicious? You're pointing out a contradiction here, but not strictly saying what you think about it.
He wanted to see your response in particular, as he specified in that post. You posted three times between the two quoted posts, so I think he got what he wanted. And there were two or three vote changes between those posts as well - I don't know, I just don't at all think it was a weird thing to do. 'Seems like an excuse for your vote-hopping' especially - what's your world, here? If he's evil, why did he vote Ventyl? Why did he change onto you? You and I both changed votes significantly more times than Eternum; why do you feel this change in particular is suspicious?
Not gonna lie, that retraction post gave me a weird vibe as well. I'm certainly not saying you shouldn't retract when you change your mind, but the tone of it was off to me. (Admittedly I can't tell if I'm tunneling, so I'm not paying that much heed, but I see where Eternum was coming from here.) Araris' retraction was completely different, too? He referenced a specific post that gave him a village read on Ventyl.
Anyway. I like this case a lot, lot better than your earlier ones; I also think it's wrong (partially also based on my read on Eternum last night in comparison to his behavior in the QF). Conclusion: ????
On the bulleted points, my impression was that he interpreted the warnings differently than most (ie don't claim your specific role vs the actual meaning of don't claim KR/refugee at all) and so didn't actually realize he was saying something that significant. And on your question - you're assuming that he knew at the time he was putting himself in harm's way. He clearly does now, but I don't think he had any idea at the time how big of a target he was painting on his back (because of his comment about thinking most players are KRs).
....if he made himself untargetable despite having asked to be scanned, we'd lynch him? That wouldn't be a waste of a charge, given it'd be nearly as damning as scanning him as evil. And I don't disagree with the claim-baiting possibility (I certainly had to be very careful in my response), but I just... I think that it's far more likely this is a chaotic villager doing chaotic thing than a master plan by the elims. If I'm wrong, I'll be impressed and surprised, but that kind of play is something I find to be very rare (and even when elims do decide to be extremely clever, it's usually in a role/mechanics-based way and not just... this).
So, basically, I have no idea what to think of TJ whatsoever. Well - if he hadn't been one of the primary counter wagons against Striker, I'd 100% still be going after him; the fact that he is makes me worried I'm tunneling. More on that later, probably.
Mostly like the look of this, especially choosing Striker between Striker/Gears. Hard to see a world in which Joe is evil unless Striker planned to be bussed at this point (which is possible, I think, especially with the probably fairly large elim team + that he was roleless; if TJ or Gears flip evil then this especially bears revisiting). Net positive for now.
This makes me read Mage as village, I think. Fairly bold question for an eliminator who knows how Striker will flip - is there a word for the opposite of distancing?
And the Shard won't let me put text below this quote because it's being silly, but I'm pointing it out because that edit reads very genuine to me and pushes me a little more towards village on TJ.
This is a really long post (El's, not mine ), but it's pretty narrow in scope. I like the progression of thought off of TJ (regardless of his alignment, it feels very natural), village read.
Agreed on this point.
Disagreed here. You were under suspicion from some people, but defended by others and some people gave no opinion either way. I certainly wouldn't have used vote manip to save you, but I would not have been that surprised if another villager did. (Two would be a stretch, though.)
^ see why I said how much depends on TJ's flip?
TJ also read Striker as very mild village, I'll note. But yes, I did, and had I been around probably would've argued against Striker dying.
Anyway, this is a useful list, though I also kind of want to see a vote history. From my recollection, Sart's vote on Striker was fairly early, and the other three were all pretty late in the cycle? Whereas the first three votes on TJ were relatively stable / on him for a long time, and only Striker's vote joined near the end.
Agreed on the village reads here; I'm going to have to go back and look but I think Sart's vote was early enough that that kind of pressure on a fellow teammate would be risky. Mostly agreed on the double vote manip soft clear as well, as far as it goes.
Disagree on those elim reads, though - yes, Gears wanted to maintain a tie, which can be neutral. But unless you think TJ is evil, that tie was between an elim and a villager, which seems... much less likely for an elim to try to make happen.
I'd like to see a vote from Truthwatcher this cycle, but his neutrality reads more to me like new player uncertainty (especially given what I remember seeing of them in the QF).
And yeah, I never got around to pointing it out, but TJ's elim read on Striker for that question probably felt so flimsy to me in part because if it were actually a suspicious question there'd be a very easy alternative for elim!Striker.
General conclusions: I don't know where I'm leaning on TJ and I'd really love to see him flip; village reads on Mage, Joe, Sart, Lahilt, Truthwatcher, Gears, Ventyl, Eternum (in no particular order, and I might be forgetting people). Less sure about Matrim now, he's probably in the neutral category. I'm... hm. I'm still very confused about TJ, but I don't think I'd vote for him for quite a while yet. I'm happy enough with that.
So Elbereth wanted to see a TJ flip, but didn't want to lynch him. That seems mildly elim to me. Of course, I don't think we get much from seeing TJ flip now, given that Eternum, Ventyl, and Joe all died.
Not much to see here, except that I agree with the elim read on Orlok, and would be willing to pursue it if we decide to lynch another inactive.
More village read on Gears, which I still would have agreed with up to this point.
I think this post is pretty NAI.
Even this is kinda NAI, since village!Ventyl could have squired elim!Matrim quite easily.
Yeah this isn't very coherent. And it's the last post from Elbereth. I've got an overall solid village read on her, and feel like all of the vague elim reads came from that one post by Truthwatcher, which makes me vaguely suspicious of the people just repeating that idea.