Araris Valerian

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About Araris Valerian

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    Knight Ferrous

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    Washington State
  • Interests
    Sanderson Elimination
    Video games (strategy, platformer, rpg)
    Long strategy board games
    Abstract math

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  1. You are fine, and I hope that things are on the upswing for you. I would much rather you kill me and have more time to get IRL matters better in hand.
  2. I guess that makes me guilty of not following PM safety. Maybe if Orlok had mentioned my PM, I wouldn’t have died, since I have never been a scary player when given a PM role. I probably have some sort of record for least PMs among long-time players.
  3. Any particular reason for thinking Mage is village?
  4. @Kasimir Thank you again for running this game! It was very fun reading all the RP throughout the whole game. My one regret is that I sent a nicely worded RP PM to Orlok, for which I was promptly murdered.
  5. This seems like an opportunistic vote change to me. I’m happy lynching Lahilt, and I’m going to stick with my soft-clear read on TJ. Sorry for my inactivity, but yesterday I was doing taxes, and I’ll be too busy today for anything but shorter posts. I see the suspicion on Mage, and might consider lynching him next cycle if Lahilt flips village. I thought I talked about stuff D1 a little more, but I neither saw the reason for the votes on Striker (which I still think were rather flimsy), nor was online during the latter part of the cycle when TJ roleclaimed and the lynch was restricted to TJ/Striker.
  6. I did a comprehensive analysis of all his posts and thought he was elim (although my D1 analysis was much more village). In particular, I found his change of opinions during the Ventyl lynch to be rather suspicious. It's possible that the elims feel bad for my rather early deaths in the last 3 games. Also, I'm pretty sure just about every active player has voiced some suspicion of me. I (unfortunately) haven't got anything that soft-confirms me as village yet.
  7. I just now realized that this is referring to me. My final thoughts on the D1 lynch were that Gears could reasonably be an elim (and in fact his voting patterns would make sense for an elim) if the elims have vote manipulation. Since Gears has been a bit more suspicious since then, I have no qualms voting for him right now. And now a scheduled analysis of Elbereth: I think I pretty much agree with everything here. NAI More agreement. NAI What about the value of catching an eliminator? A roleblocker can be much less certain about such things. 1. I’m assuming RI stands for role indicative? In which case, why do you care? 2. Could you explain why you think Abrasion should be used at that particular time? No one should need a reason to get on and say something beyond “oh look the game started!” - would you have posted any faster if you saw you had a vote on you? How many people read the thread and then just don’t bother to post unless they have a vote in them? Also, Straw already tagged everyone in his opening post. Don’t need a vote in order to tag people. How will we get mild suspicions if not by voting? Also, I’ve got one mild suspicion already! TJ Shade. Ventyl. Probably the only thing of note here is the interaction with Striker. But this probably comes more out of Striker not having played as many games where I've been advocating against poke votes. I could easily see this as both a V/E or an E/E interaction. The vote on Ventyl is unexplained, but that's fine. NAI Nah, I’d still want you to be helpful. Helpful is good! That is the theory behind poke votes, yes. I happen to be of the opinion that poke votes aren’t in fact useful whatsoever, as briefly laid out by the questions to Striker in my previous post. If I decided to vote you before you posted, would that make you any more likely or unlikely to post? Would you feel pressure from a single vote that I’d probably take off as soon as you posted? Also, voting on people who are around to discuss and talk is way more useful and interesting and discussion is my primary win condition. I agree there’s uncertainty in both cases, but I still think a redirect is much more informative. @Straw you probably clarified this but I’m lazy, if you redirect someone who took no action are you told that it’s a success or a failure or? Inexperience is fine! I like new opinions! And I agree completely - voting someone for no purpose is meaningless, because there’s nothing for the person in question to respond to nor do they feel particularly pressured by a vote that isn’t out there with intent to lynch. (does someone want to pull up Kas’ LG12 post that’s vaguely relevant here) (I should just rewrite a nicer version of that shouldn’t I) And just as importantly, it doesn’t create any discussion! Because you’re right, talking is exactly how we get suspicions, but we need some way to create that discussion and make it alignment-indicative (like roles discussion generally isn’t). Which is why my votes do have intent to lynch, and are as non-random as possible. Ventyl now has two votes on him! What do people think about that? Do people start a counterwagon? Do they frown disapprovingly at me and Araris? Regardless of what happens, he’s now actually under pressure and that is what creates alignment indicative discussion! EDIT: and @Ventyl, it’s a nice acronym but why do you care what roles other people have. What makes you think that none of the role discussion isn’t indicative, and why is that something you’re thinking about? I think the entire content of this post is meta stuff that I agree with. Still NAI (sadly). *squints* I mean. I said people shouldn’t claim but oookay. I... struggle to see this from an elim perspective at the moment, anyone else have thoughts there? Ventyl. Matrim for that latest post - not because it’s wrong, Ventyl could be doing a very clever elim play right now, but. It seems much more likely to be village, and that warning feels a bit like damage control from an elim trying to prevent a trust circle from happening / keep Ventyl from looking quite as good as he does now. I'll give El a village read here. This is a pretty aggressive vote change (and backing off on Ventyl, who El wanted lynch pressure on). We know Ventyl to be village, and I think several people have soft-cleared Matrim (myself included). But I think village!El is more likely to do this than Elim!El. 1. No. 2. Are you sure there’s a good reason for them? Or is it just that it’s much easier to vote on someone who’s not here yet than someone who’s already around and might argue back? 3. So what you’re saying then is that poke votes aren’t really about whether someone’s posted, they’re just “vote a person basically at random and don’t take your vote off until you’re satisfied” which is, notably, exactly what I do. I just do it within the pool of people already here because that makes way more discussion because the person is already around to respond and talk! 4. Only sort of agreed here - I think it’s more likely than Gears might think, but I will note that like 7/10 surges are roleblocks or redirects of some sort. Which. Is a lot. So there’s more uncertainty this game than usual. Good points all around. More interaction between El and Striker, and it's a bit more relevant here. El basically disagrees with both Gears and Striker here. Given that this is a relatively minor comment, I doubt it's distancing, so this is a very slight village read. Hm. Not sure what I think about that yet. Do you think that post made him more likely to be village or evil? More aggressiveness from El. not clear to almost everyone in this thread at least no one is arguing about whether to lynch at all very very very overexcited villager - haven't been village in six months and i have missed this even more than expected (!!!). expect this level of activity / enthusiasm to continue for.... a while. also is not the whole thing about prewritten posts that they give no indication towards alignment? like sure analysis written after is more useful to the village but that is a meta argument against prewritten posts and not really indicative of gears either way. unless you think he would have chosen whether or not to post it based on his alignment? also, what do you think about matrim atm? Nothing will happen if you just wait and see though. Vote me! See what people say about it! Discussion is your friend, if you're village, and votes cause so much more discussion and so much more productive discussion than just sitting around waiting for things to happen. You say it so much better in so many fewer words. Excellent. I don’t know. I would definitely recommend telling someone through PMs, because that information could be extremely useful later, and probably confronting the person to see what they have to say. Whether to do it in thread I think is trickier, and ideally you’d have the redirecter in contact with a scanner to tie things up nicely without the possibility of revealing a village kill role. But mostly I think it depends on how much people end up using their roleblocks and redirects. If they’re relatively rare (which I’d... probably recommend? Chaos is bad for the village, generally) (would appreciate further thoughts on that), then it’s absolutely worth bringing up in thread - there’s still chance for it to be wrong, but a high enough chance to catch an elim that I think it’s worth it. But if redirects and roleblocks are flying around like confetti, the information is much less useful (depending on the game state, too - eg if there are six players left, definitely claim and mechanically you may well be able to work out what happened; that’s a lot harder with 24). Wait, what? Why? @Frozen Mint get in here El here quotes the post that ultimately (IMO) is responsible for Striker getting lynched. This is before the two initial votes that land on Striker, though. Orr the person who put in the kill hit someone with Abrasion. Or someone hit the target with Tension. Not to mention that kill type won’t be distinguished, so if someone uses Division that night and one of the kills is blocked, no one except the elims and the kill role would even know. Both situations create plenty of false positives, is my point, and I don’t think Transportation is worse than Adhesion in that respect. If you prewrote a post and found out you were evil, would you change it? Do you think there were any bad strategies in Gears’ analysis? Why would it be a better idea to bring up bad strategies than to try to seem village and helpful - ie if there were bad ideas in there wouldn’t they be caught anyway, and all Gears would get is a lot more suspicion? Re: pokevotes: (feel free to ignore this; Mage is entirely correct that it’s a pretty NAI topic but I’m going to voice my opinions anyway because apparently that’s just how I am ) It’s not a particularly new debate, it’s just that it used to be subsumed into the “do we have a d1 lynch” debate, and after that it was basically Araris arguing against them and no one else. Which made it less a debate and more a “what the heck is Araris doing and is it suspicious?” thing, which was very sad. It’s interesting to know that votes actually motivate you to post! I don’t think I’ve heard anyone say that yet. Is that true for poke votes before you’ve even posted at all, too? Because I can see it later in the game, certainly, but I still struggle to see someone look at the thread for the first time and then just decide not to post, whether or not they have a vote on them. (And I’m not going to go on more about this but I also very much think that poke votes of that kind are way less useful and give the elims the ability to hide behind not having opinions or doing anything risky like being suspicious. Will expand on that only if asked.) So you like role analysis when it’s directed at how the village can use them, but not general role analysis. Which would you say Gears’ falls into? I like this. Feels extremely village. I don’t necessarily agree - there are times when an elim might be more likely to ask about something in their doc but I don’t think this was one of those times - but it’s a really natural progression of thought. @Kynedath what’s your conclusion on Matrim, then? You were suspicious of him and then trusted him - did those equal out into a neutral read? Are you leaning village on him? My vote is staying where it is for the moment, since Matrim’s explanation wasn’t especially convincing to me. There isn’t any further information I can get there, but... @Matrim's Dice what do you think of Gears being the top lynch candidate right now? What’s your own read on him? El disagrees with Sart (I concur here), more NAI stuff, and trying to see if others are willing to vote on Matrim. The following is not a post by Elbereth, but by Truthwatcher: I think this post may actually be the source of a lot of the vague suspicion of Elbereth that has been floating around. Back to super long El posts : Hey, this is a good summary! Do you have opinions on anyone beyond Araris? You've summed up each player nicely, but what do you think about those summaries? Do any of them make you feel like the player is good? Are any of them beyond Araris suspicious? Re: your summary of me, 1) my voting isn't random (well, the vote on TJ was, but the other two have had reasoning!), and 2) you're not wrong, in that it puts pressure on people who are around and active. And I won't deny there are problems with that, since people who are active just above the inactivity filter line can sneak under the radar very easily this way - but I do think it's worth it, because even if those lurkers are evil, voting for them generates far less discussion and is thus much less useful in determining the alignment of anyone but the person who ends up voted out. (I would encourage village kill roles to look closely at that group of low posters as potential targets, though.) Do you think Matrim's warning about Ventyl is alignment-indicative? Do you think he would not have made the same post as an elim? (I agree that the context of the previous LG makes that post seem very justified/I no longer find it suspicious, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it makes him look village.) Mhmm, that's a very fair point. Focusing on activity is definitely best for discussion, but it only works if most people are in fact active. Because they (and I) think it's best for the village to play that way. You've roleclaimed that you have a role, Ventyl. This game isn't role madness - I think it very likely that more than half the players are roleless, in fact, and the elims want to find and kill all the village KRs as soon as possible. Which now includes you. Oh certainly, I'm not trying to say that votes-with-intention are something only villagers do (although I think they're something that could be AI if the meta moved away from poke votes somewhat - ie poking inactives is an easy vote that doesn't require developing suspicion which is hard for elims thus they're more likely to do it), just that they're more useful to the village no matter who casts them. And elims casting them is especially useful since we can look back on those votes later once an elim dies and be much more certain about our conclusions from them. I... hm. I'm not sure I'd be opposed to a lynch on TJ today. (Not sure because I'd rather give him another day or so to help discussion, but this brought to my attention that he's been really flying under my radar. If it weren't such a pain, I'd look through his playstyle for past games, because I could very easily see the suspicion on Striker/Ash being an elim looking for some kind of suspicion somewhere.) Welcome! As TJ said, RP is usually very separate from game discussion. Thanks for posting something, and please post any thoughts you have even if you feel like they're silly or people have already said them - the best thing you can do for the village is say what you think! Current Reads Xino - not here yet. Null read. @xinoehp512 Orlok - neutral, verging on mild suspicion (focus on me & Gears feels weird). Want to see further posts. Gears - mild village. Liked his response to my vote on TJ, and he seems similar to the few cycles of the recent QF I read (where I assume he was village, though I'm realizing right now that I don't know that for sure) Ash - neutral. Lots of activity (love it! please keep it up!) but very little in the way of suspicions or commenting on others' interactions. Content generally seems very NAI. Eternum - very mild village. Only really have the one AI post to go on, but it's a good one, I think - lots of reads and thoughts. @Eternum, what made you go from 'Ventyl reads village' to 'confused about Ventyl' to voting on him? I'm particularly interested in the latter transition. Striker - ehhh. Very mild village, probably - feels like normal D1 Striker, ie I'm gut reading him as mildly suspicious in a very particular way, which happens every game. Mostly reserving judgement here. Matrim - mild evil. His response to Ventyl's claim, and then me asking him about that response, didn't feel quite genuine to me. Joe - null read, looking forward to him being around. Araris - null read, being the same himself as always. Reserving judgement. TJ - very mild evil read, based on the post Mage pointed out / gut. I'd like to go back and look at his posts; I'd somewhat prefer to leave him alive another day but would not be strictly opposed to that lynch. Pyro - null? Hasn't posted much, and nothing AI that I remember. Would like to see a vote or reads from him. Kyn - mild village. Liked his post re: Matrim and then his response to my question about that. Ventyl - moderate village. Difficult to see a world where an elim draws that much attention to himself. Silber - null, hasn't posted anything AI yet. Looking forward to him being around. Mage - neutral/very mild village. Liked him poking TJ, I think. Mint - null, hasn't posted. @Frozen Mint come playyyy Lahilt - null/neutral. New and trying to participate! Would love to see a vote or a read from them. Truthwatcher - null/neutral. Clearly paying attention and loved the player summary - I'd like to see some reads from them as well. Fifth - null, hasn't posted. @Fifth Scholar COME PLAY ...very surprised to see that he visited the site four hours ago and didn't check in. Please do that. Devotary - neutral. Have never been able to read her, and don't really expect that to change, but I'd love to see a vote nonetheless. Illwei - very mild village. New and trying to participate! I liked the thought process on Ventyl - it seemed very natural. Would love to see a read or two! Sart - neutral. Didn't particularly agree with his post, but didn't find it very AI either. Reserving judgement. Zillah - hasn't posted, I think? If she has, I missed it. Summary Not here yet: Xino, Joe, Silber, Mint, Fifth, Zillah Here but not enough info to tell anything: Araris, Pyro, Lahilt, Truthwatcher Mild evil: Matrim Very mild evil: Orlok, TJ Neutral read: Ash, Devotary, Sart Very mild village: Illwei, Mage, Eternum, Striker Mild village: Kynedath, Gears Moderate village: Ventyl I'm not particularly interested in lynching anyone from my village lists today, but that applies especially to Striker (because he's just Like That D1 so I want to give him a bit of time) and Ventyl (bc I really don't think he's evil atm). I'm also against lynching Araris (because people suspect him for his playstyle far too often and I will defend him until and unless he does actually suspicious stuff), Illwei/Lahilt/Truthwatcher (because they're relatively new and trying to interact and I want to encourage that), or anyone who's said 'hello I'm here I'll post when I can' (ie Joe and Silber). Those are the people I'll actively defend. From what I can tell, we're now at a 4-way tie of 2 votes between Gears, Striker, Ventyl, and TJ. Of those, TJ Shade is the one I would be by far most okay with going after (though if anyone wants to move to Matrim with me I would be even more fine with that ). I think this post is only really helpful if El flips elim (which up to this point in the analysis, I find mildly doubtful). I'd probably want to lynch Mage and/or Kynedath if El flipped elim, based on this post. Still, I'll give a mild village read for breaking the 4-way tie, even if it sort leaned toward helping an elim. The defense of Striker is sort of NAI, although I could understand anyone who reads it as elim. Welcome to SE. Wanting your votes to have reasoning is good! But multiple people have had reasoning for their votes, and in my opinion yours have seemed flimsy less in a 'it's D1 I'll take anything' sort of way and more a 'I need to find some excuse for voting' which much more often comes from an eliminator perspective, I think. I don't think you've been flying under the radar generally, and I'm certainly not accusing you of lurking - I'm saying you've flown under my radar. You've been about as active as expected, you've said reasonable things, and I haven't looked closer than that. (The comparison to Mint saying the same phrase is... mildly weird to me. Not sure what to think of that; would appreciate outside opinions since I'm obviously biased here.) He knows he's going to be killed tonight now. I think it's perfectly plausible from village!Ventyl's perspective not to realize that initially. You're reasoning as if he knew what the effects of his claim would be when he claimed, whereas I think it's entirely understandable - and indeed more likely - that he just didn't realize that by 'don't roleclaim' people meant KR rather than 'don't claim a specific role'. I tend to think that cleverness like that does exist, but it's much more rare than most people think. ???? Her, and no. And please don't announce in thread who you're going to squire. As others have said. I'm curious why you chose me, though? - @Frozen Mint YAY. And you don't have to be as active - we've got 48 hour days for a reason. (And honestly, thank goodness. Knowing there's still 20ish hours left in the cycle is so nice and relaxing.) Thank you for having reads! I think I have other comments, but I'm writing this while at D&D so will post those later if I think of them. The primary meat of this post is El is sticking to her vote on TJ, which I read as slightly village. Elim El probably would also stick to her guns here, but I do think it's more of a village play. What does the bolded part mean, I’m confused. That argument doesn’t really... work? It’s not that elims don’t try to make votes look as reasoned and villagery as possible. It’s just that when you know everyone’s alignment, finding things to be suspicious of is much, much harder. And so their reasoning is often more flawed or flimsy. And sure, you could’ve hidden in those votes. I don’t think it’s particularly alignment indicative that you chose not to, personally - you want to show (regardless of your alignment) that you’re active and trying to solve the game and cause discussion. And you could argue that “hey it’s just D1, everyone has shoddy reasoning”. And that’s not wrong (including my own reasoning; I wouldn’t lynch you for this if we were four cycles in! ), but I think that your reasoning in particular is suspicious in a way most others’ aren’t. (I would compare it to Striker’s, I think, in that your suspicions seem to be for things that seem completely NAI to me. But with Striker that’s a consistent pattern for me D1, which isn’t the case at present with you.) Mm. Orlok is, I think, and everyone else is just... carefully avoiding the topic, for the last couple pages. I’m not sure what I think of that yet. (fake edit: also Matrim and Ash, apparently ) A claim wouldn’t necessarily dissuade me, though - Ventyl isn’t my strongest village read just because he claimed. It’s the way he claimed that’s important. That said, if I have time tonight I’m going to go back through the QF and look at your behavior that D1, I think - it’s certainly possible that this is just your meta. But in the absence of that knowledge, your behavior feels suspicious to me. *reloads page* *sighs* I can’t convey how uninterested I am in a Striker lynch today. His D1 is always like this. Lynch him tomorrow, fine, I don’t care, but of all the people up for the vote at the moment he’s... well, I guess he’s the one I’d second least want to see gone, after Ventyl. Can we not? That last post of Matrim’s reads a little more villagey, btw. We have a rehashing of El's reluctance to lynch Striker. Interesting thought development on Matrim, but I'm not really sure that it reads village. That’s basically the exact opposite of his current argument of “wouldn’t I have hidden in the votes already there instead of bandwagoning?”. What changed? @TJ Shade, if you want things to respond to, here are some questions: Do you think there are any elims currently voting on you? Who do you think is most likely to be one? There have been several vote trains at this point. Look beyond your own survival - analyze those! If anyone who’s had more than 2 votes this cycle is evil, who do you think it is? What movements on or off of wagons have you felt were especially suspicious? There’s only so far you can get in defending yourself. It’s much more useful to get your reads out there and do your analysis, and let people use that to judge your alignment. (That’s why I’m pretty much ignoring Orlok’s suspicion, by the way - can’t defend unless he gives reasons, and all he’s said so far is that I’m trying too hard. Which I’m not going to stop doing, so hopefully it’s just eventually clear that I’m probably village, and until then there’s not much point in focusing on it.) El comes out a lot stronger against TJ here, which I read strongly village. (Again, this is all up against the Striker lynch, so someone could read this differently, but I think there's a level of aggressiveness here that Elim!El might not have, even when trying to save a teammate. First off, I'm sorry my playstyle irks you - I do try to pressure people and cause discussion, but try my best to do so in a way that isn't annoying or bothersome. If you have any specific things that you don't like or suggestions for me, please let me know. (that applies to anyone; I really enjoy this playstyle but it is relatively new to me and if it's problematic for people I want to fix that) (also I just came off of the MU championships game, and it's entirely possible I picked up some habits/aggression there without really realizing. I'll try to be careful about that going forward) I've changed my votes more than most, but I wouldn't characterize it as wildly - though it is worth noting I generally don't like not having a vote placed somewhere. I voted TJ to get discussion going, and changed off him as soon as I had an actual suspect - Ventyl, for talking about whether posts were role-indicative. He then claimed in a way I felt was extremely villagery, so I took my vote off of him and instead put it on Matrim, whose response to Ventyl's claim read as off to me. That stayed for quite a while, and then sometime earlier today I moved to TJ because my vote on Matrim wasn't going anywhere and I wanted to see what would happen if I pushed someone out of the 2-2-2-2(?) tie. I've also done my best to explain all my votes except the first, so I wouldn't call them gut reads. I think your read on Gears is very solidly reasoned - basically 'mild village because no red flags + very like the last QF, in which he was good'. Could you explain your reasoning a bit more on Ventyl? That is - you give him a slight elim lean, but I don't know what in your summary inclines you towards that. As opposed to the 'read because X' that's so clear with the Gears analysis, your read on Ventyl seems to be a very separated 'facts' 'read', if that makes sense. Is it his reaction to the votes on him? Is it his claim? Just gut / tone? This is mostly meta discussion, along with prodding Ash for more stuff. Since Ash is village, that interaction reads village to me. N1: Yes, that was my point! Your defense of your vote on Ash was essentially 'but why would I have done that when I could've just hidden in the wagons already formed? why would I do something that's a known elim tell?' and yet here (and in the QF post I quoted) you're explicitly saying that jumping on wagons is something you view as elim-y. That's a pretty significant contradiction. I mean. Yes, I saw that happen, especially re: the Xino vote. (I would say 'a lot' is an exaggeration, though. Two instances in a single game is decidedly not statistically significant.) And if you flip good, I'll be more careful in the future. But I can say that I personally would not have suspected you for either of those votes, nor did I particularly think they were flimsy. The Xino vote was on very thin grounds, yes, but you were also very explicit in saying that, and that you didn't have anything better. And with the state of that game at the time, I completely agree. With this game, however, I felt that your vote on Ash came at a time where far more alignment-indicative discussion had occurred than in the QF, and so expected somewhat more reasoning from you which the suspicion of Ash and Striker(?) did not deliver. There's also.... I really need to ISO you if time permits. Going to hold onto the other thing that pings me about this paragraph until I can confirm it's not just my brain making stuff up. Don't have anything to say about them, but I do like your comments about the vote trains and the people voting on you. Leaving the Striker read there just to note it. I'm somewhat confused by your read on Araris, especially when contrasted with the one on Devotary - yes, it's entirely possible that Araris is hiding behind his normal style. (Also, I'm pretty sure his vote on Devotary was not just that she didn't already have a vote on her? I'll go back and check but I'm nearly certain that's not the case.) But shouldn't that, like with Devotary, make him a null read? What makes you lean mild elim on him? Sooo first off, you left out a part of Eternum's post where he seemed to change from the gut village read to 'confusion'. Secondly, he explained in the next post you quoted exactly why he voted Ventyl despite that village read. So why does 'he voted on Ventyl despite having a gut village on him' seem suspicious to you? Does it seem suspicious? You're pointing out a contradiction here, but not strictly saying what you think about it. He wanted to see your response in particular, as he specified in that post. You posted three times between the two quoted posts, so I think he got what he wanted. And there were two or three vote changes between those posts as well - I don't know, I just don't at all think it was a weird thing to do. 'Seems like an excuse for your vote-hopping' especially - what's your world, here? If he's evil, why did he vote Ventyl? Why did he change onto you? You and I both changed votes significantly more times than Eternum; why do you feel this change in particular is suspicious? Not gonna lie, that retraction post gave me a weird vibe as well. I'm certainly not saying you shouldn't retract when you change your mind, but the tone of it was off to me. (Admittedly I can't tell if I'm tunneling, so I'm not paying that much heed, but I see where Eternum was coming from here.) Araris' retraction was completely different, too? He referenced a specific post that gave him a village read on Ventyl. Anyway. I like this case a lot, lot better than your earlier ones; I also think it's wrong (partially also based on my read on Eternum last night in comparison to his behavior in the QF). Conclusion: ???? On the bulleted points, my impression was that he interpreted the warnings differently than most (ie don't claim your specific role vs the actual meaning of don't claim KR/refugee at all) and so didn't actually realize he was saying something that significant. And on your question - you're assuming that he knew at the time he was putting himself in harm's way. He clearly does now, but I don't think he had any idea at the time how big of a target he was painting on his back (because of his comment about thinking most players are KRs). ....if he made himself untargetable despite having asked to be scanned, we'd lynch him? That wouldn't be a waste of a charge, given it'd be nearly as damning as scanning him as evil. And I don't disagree with the claim-baiting possibility (I certainly had to be very careful in my response), but I just... I think that it's far more likely this is a chaotic villager doing chaotic thing than a master plan by the elims. If I'm wrong, I'll be impressed and surprised, but that kind of play is something I find to be very rare (and even when elims do decide to be extremely clever, it's usually in a role/mechanics-based way and not just... this). So, basically, I have no idea what to think of TJ whatsoever. Well - if he hadn't been one of the primary counter wagons against Striker, I'd 100% still be going after him; the fact that he is makes me worried I'm tunneling. More on that later, probably. Mostly like the look of this, especially choosing Striker between Striker/Gears. Hard to see a world in which Joe is evil unless Striker planned to be bussed at this point (which is possible, I think, especially with the probably fairly large elim team + that he was roleless; if TJ or Gears flip evil then this especially bears revisiting). Net positive for now. This makes me read Mage as village, I think. Fairly bold question for an eliminator who knows how Striker will flip - is there a word for the opposite of distancing? And the Shard won't let me put text below this quote because it's being silly, but I'm pointing it out because that edit reads very genuine to me and pushes me a little more towards village on TJ. This is a really long post (El's, not mine ), but it's pretty narrow in scope. I like the progression of thought off of TJ (regardless of his alignment, it feels very natural), village read. Agreed on this point. Disagreed here. You were under suspicion from some people, but defended by others and some people gave no opinion either way. I certainly wouldn't have used vote manip to save you, but I would not have been that surprised if another villager did. (Two would be a stretch, though.) ^ see why I said how much depends on TJ's flip? TJ also read Striker as very mild village, I'll note. But yes, I did, and had I been around probably would've argued against Striker dying. Anyway, this is a useful list, though I also kind of want to see a vote history. From my recollection, Sart's vote on Striker was fairly early, and the other three were all pretty late in the cycle? Whereas the first three votes on TJ were relatively stable / on him for a long time, and only Striker's vote joined near the end. Agreed on the village reads here; I'm going to have to go back and look but I think Sart's vote was early enough that that kind of pressure on a fellow teammate would be risky. Mostly agreed on the double vote manip soft clear as well, as far as it goes. Disagree on those elim reads, though - yes, Gears wanted to maintain a tie, which can be neutral. But unless you think TJ is evil, that tie was between an elim and a villager, which seems... much less likely for an elim to try to make happen. I'd like to see a vote from Truthwatcher this cycle, but his neutrality reads more to me like new player uncertainty (especially given what I remember seeing of them in the QF). And yeah, I never got around to pointing it out, but TJ's elim read on Striker for that question probably felt so flimsy to me in part because if it were actually a suspicious question there'd be a very easy alternative for elim!Striker. General conclusions: I don't know where I'm leaning on TJ and I'd really love to see him flip; village reads on Mage, Joe, Sart, Lahilt, Truthwatcher, Gears, Ventyl, Eternum (in no particular order, and I might be forgetting people). Less sure about Matrim now, he's probably in the neutral category. I'm... hm. I'm still very confused about TJ, but I don't think I'd vote for him for quite a while yet. I'm happy enough with that. So Elbereth wanted to see a TJ flip, but didn't want to lynch him. That seems mildly elim to me. Of course, I don't think we get much from seeing TJ flip now, given that Eternum, Ventyl, and Joe all died. Not much to see here, except that I agree with the elim read on Orlok, and would be willing to pursue it if we decide to lynch another inactive. More village read on Gears, which I still would have agreed with up to this point. I think this post is pretty NAI. Even this is kinda NAI, since village!Ventyl could have squired elim!Matrim quite easily. Yeah this isn't very coherent. And it's the last post from Elbereth. I've got an overall solid village read on her, and feel like all of the vague elim reads came from that one post by Truthwatcher, which makes me vaguely suspicious of the people just repeating that idea.
  8. Like I said during the night, I found Gears’s behavior to be pretty elim in cycle 2. I’ll probably do an analysis of Elbereth’s posts this cycle, although she is currently pretty inactive. It should at least resolve/confirm a lot of the vague suspicions floating around her.
  9. Perhaps. You aren’t at the top of my list of suspicions. You are just on it, and when we have a cycle with more lynch discussion, I’d prefer to lynch you over a random inactive. Of course, someone else would have to agree with me for that to actually happen.
  10. I removed myself because I obviously don’t consider myself a lynch target. Someone else making that same list would have (probably) removed themself and added me. Also, in response to your other comments, I think players are perfectly capable of imitating their village play styles as an elim. People quickly stop a behavior that clearly indicates they are elim. I would argue that regardless of playstyle, elims would benefit from lying low this game. Thus, while you and Devotary may be acting as you normally do, that behavior is also advantageous for the elims, and as elims, you would simply act normally. Due to a lack of otherwise villagery type behavior, I think you two are suitable lynch targets. Basically, you are guilty until lynched and proved innocent .
  11. While trying to lynch Ventyl may be elim, I highly doubt anyone knew Eternum was a KR. I will agree that between El and TJ I’d rather lynch El, but I’ll do a summary of El’s posts and see whether she’s actually suspicious, or if that’s just a lesser of two evils scenario.
  12. I should get the rest of Gear's posts here (wow, he's really prolific): NAI, and cleared up by TJ also. Ah. Thank you for clarifying. However, as you have claimed to be a Bondsmith and are completely out of Stormlight, you are now extremely vulnerable to elim kills. If anyone wants to protect TJ, go ahead. This makes me trust TJ a little more, since if TJ and Striker were elims, TJ would probably only use one charge of Stormlight to save himself [and keep an elim Knight in play]. As such, I will not vote for TJ. @Ventyl, squire someone tonight. I had a similar response to TJ, so village read NAI (or maybe slight village, since he misunderstood Gravitation) I didn't reload the page before posting. It didn't exist before. Nothing here Ah. That makes things simpler. TJ is probably village [see above], so people with Progression, protect him. We really need a way to coordinate things. Just a repeat of earlier post reading TJ village While this is interesting, Gears never followed it up. mild elim read. The question was what would happen if a person using Abrasion was targeted by Progression and a Gravitation-boosted kill. The answer was that the person would die because Progression wouldn't work. NAI Actually, Progressionists, flip a coin. Heads, protect TJ. Tails, protect Joe. Odds are both of them get protected. NAI NAI (just summary) The poke vote is one that is explicitly stated to be a poke placed early in the turn. A vote with no reasoning is one that is simply placed with no words to justify. [Like Elbereth's vote on TJ to start. It was just placed. No reasoning, no stating it was a poke, nothing] NAI This is odd. Why lynch (or consider lynching) one of the only players that has done something kind of concrete toward confirming themselves as a villager? mild elim Striker and TJ appeared equally suspicious, and I wanted a tie. However, nothing I say can convince you of this point as I could simply be engaging in the art of lying, and so I will simply acknowledge your suspicions and ask if there is a way I could clear my good name. Yeah, so I've already reneged on my C1 suspicion of Gears. However, it's a little odd how Gears doesn't really try and explain himself more here. Not sure that it's elim, but it's weird. Through analysing the vote manipulation, we gain information. If I picked one of the two at random to lynch and that person was a villager, we would learn nothing. For instance, we learned that the elim team is unable or unwilling to vanish two votes or redirect a vote. Here's the explanation for the tie, although I don't really agree with this. If you're not going to squire, don't tell the thread. That way, the elims will know and kill you. Just stop telling the thread your plans. NAI, although I heartily agree. NAI I propose lynching Ventyl tomorrow, if only because his incessant information reveals are infuriating. NAI NAI Interesting shift from not lynching Ventyl to being okay with it in this post. Not sure what to make of that. How disappointing. Given your reasoning above, Ventyl does seem slightly more likely to be an elim. I'll have to reread Eternum's posts, as I can't remember anything they've said. I don't know about El, but if no lynch candidates come to light by the end of D2, perhaps. Here Gears is willing to lynch Elbereth/Ventyl during C2. Still pretty NAI TJ is saying that your statement implies the existence of elim vote manip, possibly as an attempt to make the elims appear more threatening. I don't think this is especially telling, considering that I mentioned the incapability or unwillingness of elims to vote manip in an earlier post, which Joe replied to and agreed with, yet somehow cut out the "unwilling" part. Not much here. If I was an elim, wouldn't I keep my vote on Striker to gain some credit in the eyes of the village? My retraction to maintain the tie has brought suspicion upon me, and thus if I was an elim, retracting Striker was a strictly sub-optimal play, especially since TJ claimed Bondsmith well before the end of the turn. I hadn't actually noticed TJ's role claim earlier. This is a good point, although it isn't AI This is a repeat of a question that Gears already asked. Not sure why. Gears seems somewhat reluctant to come up with his own suspicious, however. You are correct, however TJ is temporarily declawed until D4, so he is a low-priority lynch. If we don't find any more urgent suspicions [the only suspicion is Ventyl at the moment], we can lynch him. NAI What? If your squiring fails, nothing happens. You just don't squire someone. NAI Will do. I think lynching Ventyl is a higher priority than lynching TJ at the moment. This is a very different tone than earlier, when Gears put Ventyl on his no-lynch list. It's still not entirely clear at this point whether or not Ventyl is a KR. But I don't think an elim would have such a dramatic shift of views over just a few posts during the night cycle. Village read. Day 2: This is consistent with last cycle, NAI Squiring does not take Stormlight, which only makes me more suspicious of Ventyl. NAI NAI (although you could argue that the elims probably know this by now) As such, Ventyl either did not squire and used actions instead, or is simply lying about not having Stormlight for some nefarious purpose. Apparently incorrect. I trust TJ more than Ventyl for precisely this reason. NAI Only thing here is that "alignment mutually exclusive" probably means "not both elim". Village read on Ash was correct, I'd give this slight village. We are not lynching El because we can learn much more from a Ventyl lynch. If Ventyl flips elim, TJ is more cleared. If Ventyl flips village, we're lynching TJ. It also has ramifications for my alignment as well as Ash's. El's lynch reveals nothing other than El's alignment. I wasn't going to lynch you until you lied about squiring or Stormlight. Okay, there are a few things here. The first statement about successively lynch Ventyl and then TJ is problematic. Also, the statement about not lynching Ventyl is just false, see earlier. This post reads elim to me. You said that Straw told you it takes your charges. While this might all be a terrible misunderstanding, the risk caused by letting you live is too high. NAI Then we learn that my suspicions were wrong and I give you permission to act upon your suspicions. This is the sort of thing that keeps throwing me off in Gears's posts. Probably NAI, but the fact Gears doesn't give a better explanation might be a slight village read. Assume Ventyl is a mislynch. Ashbringer, TJ and I are implicated as fervent defenders of TJ. Assume TJ is also a mislynch. Ashbringer and I are implicated further. Assume your suspicions are mislynches. You are implicated as a fervent defender of this course of action. Knowledge concerning 3 people and near certainty concerning 2 people or knowledge concerning 1 person. Yeah, I don't really agree here. Still, probably NAI. Also strongly disagree, also NAI If you think lynching me would be beneficial, you have my consent to do so. However, I still think that the Ventyl lynch is more beneficial. NAI Ventyl claimed Edgedancer, so the probable Surge set is just Abrasion and Progression. NAI This turn, bottom of page 1. NAI I said I would be open to another lynch target. The only other one thus far is me. As such, I must lynch you, since I am not suspicious of myself. EDIT: Sidenote, if I flip village, please lynch Ventyl. If Ventyl flips village, please lynch TJ. If all of us flip village, then everything I know is wrong, up is down, left is right, and everything is awful. I think everything is awful. I have no venusian idea. I think Ventyl is an elim because of TJ's excellent reasoning that everyone seems to be ignoring. I've taken some suspicion for reasons unknown. If Ventyl flips village, lynch me. If I flip village, lynch Ventyl. EDIT: A summary of the charges brought against Ventyl: Claiming when the general consensus was against it, lying about squiring [said it took Stormlight], not getting voted on by Striker [which would have ensured Striker's survival as TJ had a vote on Ventyl]. Charges against me: Attacking Ventyl. I think Gears isn't really taking into account the severe risk for elim!Ventyl to have done the things he did (as evidenced by his subsequent lynch). Also, Gears doesn't say anything about the D1 lynch here. mild elim read. We cannot know if you are telling the truth. As such, we must assume the worst. If this assumption leads us to a contradiction, we will lynch the one who caused it [in this case, me] Disagree, NAI All of my statements are as a last resort. Do not enact these schemes unless no lynch targets avail themselves. I thank you for your valiant efforts, and hope you will not succumb to death before your attempt can be realized. Okay, where did the first statement come from? That is a major tone shift, and reads really elim to me. I too think TJ is a villager, and I shall revise my lynch train from Ventyl-TJ to Ventyl-Gears instead. The general populace may lynch TJ in their own time. It's not really ever helpful to suggest to other people that they lynch you. Unless maybe you have claimed a scan role and want people to stop doubting you. This is a NAI thing, but you should probably never do this ever. I am perfectly amenable to dying. If I get lynched and flip village, lynch Ventyl. If Ventyl gets lynched and flips village, lynch me. I look forward to rambling in the dead doc. Same as above If Ventyl flips village, you would lynch me regardless. I wouldn't be happy about it, but it would happen, so I instead am telling you to do so in an attempt to take control over my own demise, which is mildly cathartic. It would also provide a large quantity of information, as on my flip, the people who voted on me in this cycle would be implicated. The only other lynch target post-Ventyl is TJ, and he is more trusted than me, so lynching me would benefit the village more than lynching TJ. As in all things, these plans are a LAST RESORT to be used if no one has a better idea. More of the last resort stuff. But Gears isn't looking very hard anywhere else. NAI. I am not against it. If we are ever left with no lynch targets, this seems like a perfectly fine option. However, based on the current votes, shifting the lynch onto Matrim now seems both difficult and inadvisable, especially considering that the Ventyl lynch is far more pressing. NAI He does still have Stormlight. If he is being truthful about being an Edgedancer, he's harmless, but if he's lying, he could have a kill. Also, he could have lied about squiring. NAI That was a hypothetical that is very much unlikely. I do not actively believe him to be lying, but the possibility bears pondering. NAI An argument could be made for the fact that Ventyl squired you to gain your trust and create an adamant defender. Agree with Gears here. NAI In addition, Ventyl and I could both be villagers. If you wish to lynch me, you have my consent to proceed, but you need a plan for when I flip village. I recommend lynching Ventyl and Matrim posthaste. This one comes off as sort of elim to me. It's the first time Gears seems to really consider Ventyl being village, rather than thinking of it as a hypothetical. Also, @Gears, what happens if we lynch you without your consent? I would indeed endorse Ventyl first, as you being an elim only makes sense if Ventyl is an elim. NAI Non-sequitur. If I flip village, the best course of action is to investigate those who voted on me, and the most suspicous of those is Ventyl. Again, I don't really agree. It's easy for the elims to let villagers lynch each other all day without getting too involved. Elim!Ventyl could have squired village!Matrim to appear more trustworthy. NAI Ah. Language is difficult at the best of times. My apologies. NAI Out of all the players, I find Ventyl most suspicious, with Matrim in a distant second. However, the possibility that Ventyl is a villager should not be ignored. My suspicions can and will be wrong [as evidenced by QF45]. All eventualities should be planned for. To better explain my thought process, I have made a decision matrix based on the 2 axis of lynching Ventyl and Ventyl being an elim. Ventyl is lynched, elim: We get an elim. Very good. Ventyl is lynched, villager: We mislynch, but we have a lot of material to work with. Not that awful. Ventyl is not lynched, elim: We have let an elim slip under the radar. Very bad. Ventyl is not lynched, villager: We have let a villager live. Moderately alright. In my opinion, it is better to lynch Ventyl. The worst scenario occurs when we do not lynch, the best scenario occurs when we do lynch, and the other two scenarios aren't that bad. Well, we lynched Ventyl, and then discussion kinda died. I read this post as slight elim. I shall make yet another decision matrix, this time based on Ventyl's alignment and Matrim's alignment. Elim!Ventyl, elim!Matrim: The choice of squire makes sense, but why would Matrim claim? That would only bring suspicion on Matrim if Ventyl flipped elim and suspicion on Ventyl if Matrim flipped elim. Theoretically possible, but unlikely. Elim!Ventyl, village!Matrim: Ventyl squired Matrim to pocket. This seems to have paid off, as Matrim is diverting suspicion away from Ventyl. I automatically assumed this because it makes no sense for elim!Matrim to claim, so assuming Ventyl is an elim [which was a necessary assumption at the time as I was attempting to conclude how Ventyl could have been an elim] Matrim is most likely a villager. Village!Ventyl, elim!Matrim: This is possible [20%-25% of the people are elims], but unlikely, as I also cannot comprehend why Matrim would claim in this case. An argument could be made for trying to gain credibility when Ventyl was lynched, but it seems to have had the opposite effect. Village!Ventyl, village!Matrim: More likely than village!Ventyl elim!Matrim, though claiming was still a poor decision as Ventyl could have definitely been an elim and Matrim has now made themself a viable kill target for the elims. If this is the case, we are probably doomed, as all of the lynch candidates are villagers. Conclusion: The most likely options are village!Matrim, so we should lynch Ventyl, not Matrim. @Elbereth, @The Young Pyromancer, I regret to inform you that your votes on Matrim have split the Ventyl/Matrim vote, and as such, I will die. The Matrim lynch will probably not take off in the next 3.5 hours [if it does, ignore what I have to say], so I request you move your votes back to Ventyl. If you would rather lynch me than Ventyl, then you may ignore my advice. Sadly, both of you appear to be asleep, so I am probably dead unless you make the effort to be awake before rollover. I agree here, and actually midlly suspect El and Pyro for the attempted shift here (even though I wasn't on board with the Venty lynch) No, you can't do that. See the rules. NAI If only I was so clever. I thank you for your kind words, and hope to live up to them one day. If you flip village, is there anyone you would like us to investigate? NAI The last bit of this rubs me the wrong way. It also contradicts Gears wanting to lynch TJ if Ventyl flipped village. elim read. Night 2: NAI Matrim was squired by Ventyl, and thus Matrim thought Ventyl was a villager as Ventyl would have squired an elim if they were a elim. Matrim did ignore the possibility of Ventyl being an elim trying to pocket them, but they turned out to be right. NAI NAI Day 3: There were far better candidates for the Division kill, namely myself and Elbereth. I am very confused as to why someone would obliterate Ash. If a villager did Divide Ash into their component parts, do not claim. NAI Gears doesn't propose any of his own candidates, not even TJ. NAI @Matrim's Dice, why am I a target of suspicion? [I believe it was because of my vehement insistence that Ventyl was to be lynched, but some take that as a point in my favor as an elim would avoid vehemently targeting a villager.] NAI NAI My defenses are IKYKs because that is the only way I could defend myself at the time. The only allegations laid against me were that I was tunnelling on Ventyl, and that is not something I can really defend against in a reasonable fashion. I couldn't very well terminate my pressure on Ventyl as retracting because of suspicion is an elim move. Retracting of suspicion is not necessarily elim (I did it towards you last cycle, nobody is trying to lynch me). Rather, trying to act like a villager is an elim move. I'm not Straw, but there have only been 4 votes, so here you go. Elbereth: 3 [Matrim's Dice, Gears, The Young Pyromancer] Eternum: 1 [TJ Shade] NAI. NAI. In summary, I find Gears to be much more elim leaning than he was C1. Given this, I'd probably be okay lynching him next cycle. I may also do a post like this for Elbereth, since she only has ~5 posts through the whole game.
  13. Well, I propose we add Devotary, Pyro, and Truthwatcher all to the list. It’s kind of silly to only consider 2/19 people when nobody (to my knowledge) has stated a solid reason for suspecting on of them. The above have been posting and/or voting but haven’t really gone out on a limb at all. Given that we’ve hit two villagers in the recent lynches, that seems like a safe place for elims to hide.
  14. Emphasis mine. What exactly do you mean here? Anyone is a potential lynch target.
  15. Yeah, the first one was LG6, and I think it's been rerun once (or maybe twice).