Oof, guess I may have to double-post after all then.
Current player list:
I'm assuming that two of the five non-me people are elims--we know they didn't start with five because this would be parity if they had, and given that the elims had a vanilla, I highly doubt they started with three. Of course, only one of those two is going to be submitting the kill, so I have a 1/5 chance of hitting the right person (RNG says Books ). Not great odds, but maybe I can increase them somewhat?
ISO of Ash:
So, in summary, Ash's interactions with each other currently living non-me person:
Araris: voted Whysper at Araris's request in C3, when he could have voted Araris instead and saved Whysper. Read Araris village in C4, said that he didn't want to exe any of me/Striker/Araris (and Araris is the only one not confirmed village in there), and says he definitely won't vote on Araris multiple times in both C4 and C5.
TJ: Points out that TJ and Whysper were awfully quick to take sides in the C1 Highprince debate, village-read on TJ C2, votes with Whysper and TJ on Books for a while C3 (would be kinda weird for 3/4 of the team to be the only people voting on someone? idk), more serious "suspicion" of TJ in C4 (listing him in his top 3 suspicions and stuff like that) but doesn't vote TJ in spite of that, says that he'd be okay with exeing TJ, ties TJ and Connie together repeatedly as a kind of... excuse to exe neither of them?, later says he would vote TJ if someone could distinguish him from Connie somehow (I promptly gave a couple of rather large differences, which... he didn't respond to).
Connie: listed Connie in top 3 suspicions C4, then backed off a bit and focused more on Striker and TJ, continues to focus more on TJ than Connie... yeah that's basically it.
Books: Kind-of defends Books from Whysper in C2 or C3 (I don't remember which : P), votes Books at a time when it gives Araris the opportunity to save himself by voting Books, hedged on a Books read by saying he wanted to do more analysis on them, later said he doesn't want to exe Books (or Araris, or Forge, coincidentally(?) the same three people who voted with Ash on both Whysper and Striker), uses a kind of process of elimination to narrow down the people he would vote on to Striker and Books (who happened to be the two with the most votes at the time) and then votes Striker, which broke a tie betwen Striker and Books.
Forge: calls her genuine, doesn't want to vote her, doesn't think she's elim because she doesn't have ties to much (though of course she doesn't because she doesn't talk much >>)
Based on that, the teams I could see are:
Problems: Well, actually, tbh I can't think of any serious problems with this team as an option. It would explain why none of the Whysper voters have been NK'd yet--because the only villager voting her is the newbie--and it would explain why Ash bussed Whysper instead of voting Araris and saving Whysper, and it would explain why Araris shifted the vote to Whysper instead of voting off Books, and so on. The one thing, I guess, is why did Ash, Whysper, and Araris all vote Books at various points in time, but since their only reason for doing so, really, was "inactivity", they might have seen it as an easy distancing vote ig.
Problems: Why didn't Ash vote Araris instead of Whysper in C3? Why did he steer the conversation away from the Triple Threat if all of us were village?
Problems: Again, why didn't Ash (and Forge) vote Araris instead of Whysper in C3? Why did he steer the conversation away from the Triple Threat if all of us were village? Why was he so non-committal about TJ and Connie when both were village?
Problems: Why did Araris shift the vote onto Whysper C3 instead of voting Books? Why hasn't Books been NKd yet? Why did Ash sus TJ more than Connie?
And of course, this leaves me wanting to block one of [Araris, Books, Connie, Forge, TJ], which is exactly where I was before : P the only thing I can really say is that Connie, TJ, and Forge all seem like less likely candidates to me, and that Connie and TJ don't seem like they're elims together.
Yeah I just don't know... there's more analysis that I could do, but it feels like no matter what I keep coming back to Araris/Books. Only now I'm confused because Araris keeps hinting that he's Dalinar, and Books doesn't necessarily make sense with Ash and Whysper. But all the other teams just don't fit right with the votes from C3.
But on the other hand, Araris has been off all game--things like assuming the alignments of people we have no reason to assume about, saying he's glad he voted a confirmed villager instead of someone who hadn't flipped yet and who (from a village POV) could have been elim, voting active players C1, and so on. Hence my bad gut read of him. And Araris makes most sense with Books, whom he and Ash have both conveniently been defending and who for some reason wasn't NKd after getting Whysper voted off >>. This is probably some amount of conf-bias talking, but at the same time, how many coincidences have to line up before I'm justified in paying attention to them?
*rubs eyes* anyway I'm tired and don't really want to keep thinking about this anymore, so I'm blocking Books. Because A. they're in more of my teams-most-likely than Araris and make sense as elim even if Araris isn't one, B. I've expressed more suspicion of Araris than of Books so IKYK amirite? and C. RNGesus decreed it
A note from me of several hours later (I wrote this this morning): I'm less certain about my decision now, but I'm sticking with it. If I'm wrong, we still have a chance... maybe... yeah idk. If Araris is actually village we might, or if everyone else suddenly decides to be active? Anyway, this is the best I could do on my own. Hopefully it was enough.