Twibanu

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About Twibanu

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    Chief Sheep Herder Herder

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    first3574.org OR highlineroboticsalliance.org (I haven't worked on the second yet)

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    In a book
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    Reading, Robotics (FRC/FLL/FTC)

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  1. Perhaps... Let's see how long we have first: 15 players, presumably 3, gives us a 12-3 with 3 villagers, 1 elim dead. C3: 9-2 (-mislynch, -kill) C4: 7-2 (-mislynch, -kill) C5: 5-2 (-mislynch, -kill) C6: 3-2 (MyLo) So we have 2 mislynches after today... I'm fine with taking the chance on Devotary then. Devotary, if you are a villager, I'm really sorry.
  2. Regardless, no one came forward to confirm he actually did that. While you are correct that elims wont always be online to save each other, Devotary has been in the lead for the lynch for over 55 hours now. As of that post, the vote count was: Striker(1): Twibanu Devotary(2): Elandera, Venture The next vote was in this post (I think): Here CadCom votes on Joe. This takes momentum away from the Devotary lynch. Haven't done an ISO yet, but a Devotary/CadCom team wouldn't be outlandish... This post happened ~3 hours after Venture's vote. The votecount now was Devotary(2): Elandera, Venture Striker(1): Twibanu Joe(1): CadCom The next vote after CadCom's was by Joe here: This vote happened ~24 hours after Venture or 21 hours after CadCom. This is a full day (no matter where you live) where you can see that all targets have lost momentum, and you have an opportunity to swing the lynch to your favor. Joe votes on Devotary, putting her up by two. Joe and Devotary are obviously not teammates. It is at this point where elims would likely hop on the elim!Devotary lynch... Let's look at who did that... Lemelon, Elkanah (sort of), Kidpen, Striker (after subtly defending Devotary) So... I don't necisarily have an issue with Devotary being the lynch target, however, I think Striker has a significantly higher chance of being an elim. Perhaps both Striker and Devotary are elims, and they were hoping a villager would come to their defense. I think it would be wierd if they are both villagers, but that's technically possible too... Anyways, sorry, I'm getting off track. My point is, there was lots of time with little to no momentum on the Devotary lynch where she was only up by one, and still no one really tried to shift the lynch... With the exception of CadCom, but I do think he is village right now. If Devotary flips evil, I'll reconsider.
  3. I have actually been pushing for the lynch of at least one of Striker/Devotary, with a preference towards Striker. My only problem with Devotary being an elim, is that each elim you lose, the game gets exponentially harder. It is really hard to win as an only elim as when actions are trackable (as most are this game) you have to choose between killing or having an alibi. I don't think there will be more than 3 elims, and Devotary has been sitting at 3-4 votes in the lead for a long time with everyone just sitting back and watching. I know people are distracted with... Other... SE stuff right now, but I don't think an elim!Devotary would just let herself get lynched without putting up some kind of fight. I have to be careful with these pushes, as I have made this same argument in now all three cycles, however, I think I'm pretty safe on this one, as the vote has, again, been pretty decisive all cycle. Also, when we got close to when we thought rollover would be, some people should have realized I wasn't going to fight for Devotary and spoken up. Also, I have been trying for the past hour to actually ISO people, and I just cant focus on it right now. I'm going to have to come back to it later and see if I can focus then.
  4. Thanks for the vote count. According to Elkanah, the vote count is now: Striker(1): Twibanu, Devotary(6): Elandera, Venture, Joe, Lemon, Kidpen, Striker Umm, interesting... Analysis to come, but I would still advocate switching to Striker instead. The fact that both Striker and Elandera voted for Devotary has me on edge. Granted, I have no idea why elim!Striker voted for her.
  5. I want to point out that Stick was killed almost certainly because of that list. We need to be careful when revealing that much info. Edit: MR35 Joe was an elim and less active than this game iirc. Regardless, I dont think he is an elim. Organized player analysis to come hopefully within 12 bours. Off the top of my head, I think the remaining elims are 2 of Striker, Elkanah, and Devotary. Still need to do the analysis though.
  6. Alright, well I can't say for sure that Devotary is good, but thanks to her I contacted Stick about giving her Binoculars to someone else... so... I'm going to claim responsibility for there still being Binoculars in play, even though it probably had nothing to do with me. : P Sart was... evil... So... um... D1 was a strange lynch I suppose. Now I shall go through all the players that discussed the Sart lynch on D1: Players pushing for Sart lynch: DeTess, Venture Players against the Sart lynch: Stick, Kynedath, Elandera, Devotary, Striker Voted for other parties: Joe I think Venture is probably village due to this. Elim!Venture likely never would have voted on Sart that late in the cycle, putting him in the lead, and adding a lot of momentum to that lynch. I'm kind of facepalming now as I jumped from the Sart lynch because I thought it was V/V because no one was defending Sart. Looking back at it though... There was actually quite a push to get Sart out of the lead... I think I might have gotten ninja'd... but still. In the spoiler, you will find a post by post analysis of Sart's lynch. As I said in the spoiler, I will be voting on Striker this cycle, but Devotary might be a close second, and I might switch. I will be voting for one of those two however. Striker
  7. Well, if DeTess is pocketing me... She is doing a terrific job, as I still think she is village. : P Edit: I voted on Venture as he is the only one online... However, as it seems everyone is happy about this lynch right now, I'll switch my vote to Elandera (just for the sake of it) as I think she is more likely to be an elim. I know she is busy, however, that doesn't mean she isn't an elim. Devotary hasn't seemed like an elim to me in our PM. Venture I'm mostly neutral on... But the kill target would point towards someone in the community much longer. All this would point towards Elandera. Kynedath (1): Elandera Twibanu (2): StrikerEZ, Venture Elkanah (1): DeTess DeTess (3): CadCom, Stick, Kyndedath Elandera(1): Twibanu Venture Elandera
  8. And what about all the other unconfirmed people? Kynedath (1): Elandera Twibanu (1): StrikerEZ, Venture Elkanah (1): DeTess DeTess (1): CadCom, Stick First of all, I trust DeTess. I also seem to be the only person defending her... Which makes me a bit uncomfortable. In addition, she is really good at distancing, and not to put myself on a pedestal, but my most recent games as an elim in LG54, 55, and on MU, I was told my distancing was pretty good. If the two of us were elims, I feel like it wouldn't be quite so obvious. The people with unconfirmed actions are: DeTess, Sart, Venture, Elandera, Devotary, Kidpen, and myself. One of these people is probably an elim. I think DeTess and Sart are village, and I don't think Kidpen would have submitted the kill. That leaves Venture, Devotary, and Elandera. Out of these people, I'll vote on Venture. Venture Edit: Oops, ninja'd and doesn't include my vote... and not updated Kynedath (1): Elandera Twibanu (2): StrikerEZ, Venture Elkanah (1): DeTess DeTess (3): CadCom, Stick, Kyndedath Venture(1): Twibanu
  9. If we are both elims, why would we both have unconfirmed actions? Venture also has an unconfirmed action, as does Sart, Devotary, Elandera, and Kidpen. This is too many people to all be elims... And beyond that, there can only be one damning unconfirmed action per cycle. The rest of the elims would be taking actions just like the village. One of the people with unconfirmed actions is an elim. But we can't say more than that are.
  10. So, I didn't take any action because I don't have an item to protect, and I wanted to wait until I had some reads before I stole from anyone... Then I promptly forgot I could steal from people as I got caught up in the rollover voting between Sart and Coda. Is the info not public knowledge? partly.
  11. Exactly. AND I don't think any of us know exactly how the time away counter actually works. If you just walk away from your computer for an hour but leave it running, does it mark you as away or online? What if you have it up on your phone but turn it off? What if it is up on your computer, but you are on a different webpage? I mentioned when I originally shared my findings, that this method of analysis is flawed, and this is why. None of us know what those numbers truly mean. and... i think the game is more fun this way. Being able to find elims on meta, should never be a thing. Lynching based on when someone was last online sucks, it isn't fun for me, and it definitely isn't fun for the lynchee. This is why places like MU don't have a counter for when someone was last online. If we all agree to log offline and not show up for a cycle, then if someone died, we kill the only person to log on during that cycle. I don't think stuff like that is a good idea.
  12. If DeTess and I were on an elim team, I'd ask to post first to dispel these things about me. I know these sort of comments don't help *too* much, but Striker's vote is an attempt to get me to explain myself. Something I wouldn't need a teammate to save me from. Anyways, I'm a little miffed that Joe lied to me... But as I lied to him, I suppose that serves me right. I didn't take an action last night, and when Joe asked in thread if anyone else Stole from Striker, I PMed him telling him that I did. I gained some info that I otherwise wouldn't have gotten, so I'm pretty happy about that. Granted, I did trust Joe's word that he wouldn't share the identities of those that contacted him. - _ - If we are to lynch one of the three, I think Elkanah is the best choice, but I don't think information lynches are very fun in general. And I don't think it will gain us that much info. CadCom would be a more informative information lynch... But again, see the above sentence. EDIT: I can confirm that this is exactly what I’ve been told by these players, except for Twibanu, who I haven’t talked to in PMs since last cycle. I can confirm that I have claimed both. : P ED2T: (Yes, I'm copying Aman) @DeTess If Kidpen is going to die today anyways, lets use that as our method of finding out if all three are evil. If Kidpen flips evil, then we can kill Elkanah, and then decide if CadCom is the right person to kill. If Kidpen flips village, we know our logic is flawed.
  13. Your belief in this analysis is based on the premise that Elims wouldn't want to kill the lynch target. If they would never let that happen, that would mean that none of them were online over rollover. If that is the case, the full elim team is CadCom, Elkanah, and Kidpen (who hasn't been online in over 48 hours). If you adamantly believe that to be the case, I think Kidpen would be a better lynch. The alternative to that is that there may have been 1 or more elims online that either forgot about the kill, or didn't care. If that is the case, as many as all of them could have gotten online before rollover. If this is the case, the elims could still be anyone, and we are really tunnelling on something that means nothing. Personally, I see the second as significantly more likely. I'd love to hear your thoughts though. And just to be clear, there absolutely could be an elim in those three. If there is, CadCom is the one I'd be least willing to lynch. Elkanah technically was last online in the sweet spot of late enough to reasonably submit the kill, and early enough to miss the voting... Or maybe the elim left 17S running and walked away from their computer, so the website thought they were online... Or maybe they did this intentionally just to mess with our heads (which, would be a great idea I must say). I think there are just too many factors.
  14. So... I originally found that, assuming that elims couldn't change the previous kill target, it would make the most sense that whoever submitted the kill wasn't online. That left the players Kidpen, Elkanah, & CadCom (completely due to him outing himself as having not been online, as I couldn't have proven it without him saying so). However, now that we know that other elims could change the first elim's kill order, all of that analysis on time is completely useless. I don't really suspect CadCom right now, and idk about Elkanah... but I do suspect that people pushing this idea a bit more now. Particularly people who haven't really gone after anyone in particular or subtly just encouraged people going down this rabbit hole... Such as myself xD Edit: I just realized, if I was an elim, which I totally and completely am not... But if I was, and if Kynedath was my teammate, I would be really proud of my defense of them I just posted. I mean, I'm not proud of the defense I just posted, because it isn't a defense of them at all... Just if it was, I'd be very happy with myself xD Ed2t: Though... If it had been a defence, I probably should have posted this either before Elandera's most recent one, or after a couple more people posted... You know... To distance it from the idea of Kynedath a bit... See? Proof this isn't me being evil! : P