Mr Doctor

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  1. I voted on Drought because I was willing to trade him for information about you, since you're an active player and I wouldn't want to vote on you without anything more substantial. Since you've been focusing on him since very early in the game and he turned out to be a Villager, and you've had suspicions of me and I'm a Villager, I think that it's worth lynching you. I suppose I am desperate, since convincing the Village to lynch you is my greatest chance of survival. I don't believe that the game will end if I die, and I'm not sure what you're implying by that question. I'm not the Green Man. Lynching me is a mistake, but that's what anyone in my position would say. For reference, when I flip Village, this is the order of priority that I think people should be looked at, and the reasons for the suspicions that I have against them: Furamirionind - focusing on Villagers Mark IV - mostly just a gut read here, but claiming Elim sounds weird, and something I would do if I wanted to have some fun with the Village Amanuensis - seems genuine to the point of staging it Sart - hasn't provided many reasons for his votes and has been skimming a level of activity where an Elim would best hide A Joe in a Bush - has been voting based on what other people say, and his "I'm not an Elim" post doesn't sound very good to me Karnatheon - tunneled hard on Snipexe earlier in the game but has been acting Village for everything else CadCom - not much to say here, so he's right in the middle randuir - has been acting neutral or Village, but I think that it'll be devastating if randuir is an Elim Steeldancer - cleared by being attacked and surviving Votes: Mr Doctor (4) - Steeldancer/Ookla the Positive, randuir, A Joe in the Bush, Furamirionind Furamirionind (1) - Mr Doctor
  2. Hmm. Fair enough, that is a pretty big discrepancy. I suppose I should have outlined how my thoughts had changed in that post. What do you think this means about me? I'm going with what I said last Day, and so Furamirionind. You've focused on Drought, who was a Villager, and you focused on me, both for a significant portion of the game. And I worry that you've duped the Village into trusting you by providing helpful analysis of the Rings.
  3. Yes, and Snipexe was a hardy villager. If you are an elim, it would be smart for you to kill any hardy villagers that there are. So of course you would solidify the lynch, and of course you would pretend to not agree with it. If I may remind you, I ran LG46, I watched first hand as you single handedly fooled the entire village. So, I'm a little more willing to be suspicious of you for the little things, like yes, even "yet" which I may say you didn't apply to any other individual in that post. Granted, if you were an elim, then there would likely be more than one elim on that list, but I feel like it's a slip up. Possibly. Thing is, there's no proof for Randuir being elim, other than the weird Emond's field messages, which honestly are starting to get on my nerves. @randuir, how are you not involved in making these messages at all? Thing is, like Mr. Doctor, Randuir also doesn't have huge tells. Thing is... honestly, I don't know if this is Randuir's style. If it were someone who's more of a troll, like Alvron or Stink, I would be suspicious of them in a heartbeat. But Randuir tends to be a bit more straightforward, and his tells tend to be in his actions. The very same reasons I'm suspicious of Doctor- his actions. One can look as village as all heck in your posts, but honestly I find his vote on Snipexe and his interactions with Brightness to be contrived. Smartly contrived, but contrived. Snipexe's Lynch: I suppose that it's reasonable to assume that I could fake the entire latter half of this post in order to appear more hesitant about Karnatheon's suspicions of Snipexe. And now that I read that Cycle again, I realise that I didn't solidify the lynch. I apologise, I made a mistake and was reading the wrong Cycle because I forgot that Snipexe got lynched twice. When he was finally killed, I was the second person to vote on him after Karnatheon. My reasons for voting on him were because I believed in Karnatheon's logic and trusted his judgement, and would only proceed once I knew that Snipexe had a lower chance of being Rand. Could I have faked this? Of course I could have. But given the fact that I pointed out very good reasons why one would not lynch Snipexe, I think that it's reasonable to assume that I was not trying to get rid of Rand, because an Elim would probably focus harder on Rand than give Villagers a way to avoid lynching him. If Rand dies, everyone who votes on him gets suspected, and so Elim!Doctor would want as many people as possible to dogpile it to make analysis harder, and therefore undermining Karnatheon's argument would be detrimental to that cause. I initially didn't disagree with that lynch (the first one) because frankly I didn't really know enough about the players to vehemently oppose a lynch. I joined the second one because I agreed with Karnatheon. Apologised about the mixup in which lynch I voted on, that was my mistake in remembering the Cycle, and I thought that I'd voted on him the first time. "Yet": My speech patterns probably do appear suspicious, yes. When I'm typing casually, I like to have fun with words. I make small jokes, and I add in little bits of drama to my writing as I write it. "Yet" was a small fancy that I indulged in because it was a way of saying that I was watching BR to slip up, as I don't believe that there are any players (except for maybe our Neutral Randuir) who don't look suspicious at some point, regardless of alignment. I could have appended "yet" onto the end of every comment I made like that and the meaning (at least, how I thought of it) would be the same. I feel like it's a similar situation to when I clarified what I meant by "the watchlist" when talking to Furamirionind halfway down this post. It's a pattern of speech. The reason why I believe that this is NAI is that when I'm an Elim, I proofread ridiculously. Writing a single post in LG46 could take up to 3 hours because I combed it for each detail and tailored every sentence and claim to have the right balance of Village and neutrality without making it seem like I'm trying too hard. When I'm a Villager, I write honestly and don't proof my posts with nearly the same level of detail, which for some reason makes me look more suspicious despite being more honest. So the fact that you're noticing discrepancies in my posts is more likely to be a sign of me being a Villager more than an Elim. I don't expect you to believe me, but consider it regardless. Interactions with BR: My interactions with her are minimal, and I suppose that you could say that I'm trying to make some connection so that we don't look like we're actively avoiding each other, but not so much that it can be read into, but that's tenuous evidence at best, and not good enough for a lynch in my eyes. @Ookla the Positive Could you provide some more details on how you're reading my interactions with her? Hmm... Aman's post makes sense, and I am withholding my vote from MrDoc for now... i will try to look closer at some other players i am suspicious of, but i wont be able to do any reall analysis. Gut Aginor Read: I can't really argue with that, other than to deny it. I am not Aginor, and that will become clear if I am lynched. I Should be Dead: If I understand your point about how the Elims should have killed me: I was active and analytical in the first few Cycles but quiet in Night 2, which means that I can be killed without people being able to think about why I was targeted, because I didn't have any recent suspicions. @Furamirionind Is that correct? The Elims could have any number of reasons for killing people or not killing them, and so while I think that your logic holds, I don't feel that it's conclusive. Perhaps the Elims wanted to go after more inactive players before semi-actives. Perhaps they thought that I would be suspected by everyone more because of the reputation that my first game earned me. If I hadn't gotten any good suspicions at the time, they may not have gauged me to be a threat, and could deal with me later. I didn't see that in the writeup until I had sent that post, and I wanted to get a response to Steel after the accusations that he made to me, because I need to be more active and I decided that he would probably be voting on me this Cycle. I didn't want a bandwagon to start before I had a chance to defend myself. This Cycle I feel most suspicious of Furamirionind. He led the lynch against Drought, trying to get it started for several Cycles now. He's thrown suspicion at me that I consider to be poor. And he's managed to ingratiate himself with the Village with Ring analysis, which is a pretty efficient way to earn trust. I don't really like it, but I'll wait for a while to vote. I want to hear responses first.
  4. @Ookla the Positive my response to your accusations. - Steeldancer Yes, I did contribute to a lynch on a Villager, but only because it would solidify any lynch at all and I believed that the plan was to Defend that Cycle. I think that Furamirionind is more suspicious given Drought's flip, since he's been targeting Drought since the start of the game. What do you feel about that? - Furamirionind Acknowledged, and I look forward to this reasoning. - Steeldancer As has been pointed out, why lynch me over randuir? - Furamirionind What is your case? Is this in reference to how I don't mind killing inactives as much as I used to? Here's an explanation of that. I suppose it is relevant that in LG46 I decided to kill inactives rather than active players because it was more sporting, but I don't think that this is your case. - Furamirionind Why do you think this? I'm not really sure how you're so adamant that I'm not only an Elim, but Aginor. I can't really respond to this other than to deny it until you give me some hard reasons and evidence. I'm happy to do that, but I can't exactly clear things up if you don't tell me what you suspect. - Steeldancer This conversation is feeling a bit staged, but I'll let that slide for now. What is your suspicion, and what are your reasons for suspecting me? As for my interactions with BR, I'll go through them in order: Commented on the fact that she preferred reading people to rules, and the only suspicious thing I may have said was "Nothing suspicious here yet", but that's generally just how I talk. I like to leave things open. Source post. I commented on her vote on Snipexe and said that I don't really have much against the vote even though I didn't agree with it at that stage. I did end up voting on Snipexe that cycle to solidify it. Additionally, I told her what Fifth had said about the preferred minimum number of players. Source post. Maybe I missed one of them. What of these made you suspicious? And what were your initial suspicions? - Furamirionind I've read everything you've said about me last Cycle, and...why? @Ookla the Positive @Furamirionind I will happily defend myself from your suspicions, and I would like to hear them, but so far, there hasn't been much evidence. I can defend myself and discuss, and I'm happy to do that if it saves my life, but I can't do that if you don't give me evidence. At least give me something that I can challenge, because right now it looks like you're trying to make me defend myself so that I look suspicious. As much as throwing suspicions back and forth gets us nowhere, Fura and Steel are looking pretty bad by ganging up on me with no real evidence. However, because Furamirionind has been focusing on Drought all game and he turned out to be a Villager, I'd prefer to vote on him this Cycle.
  5. Furamirionind Has been one of the most active players. He’s also been focusing pretty hard on Drought since very early in the game. I think that Drought’s flip would tell us a lot about Fura, and losing an active player over a less-active player is probably a good trade. So I don’t really oppose this lynch. Additionally, his logic against Drought is sound, so I’m willing to support it to see what happens. Furamirionind is either a great asset to the Village, or he’s infiltrated extremely well. I think that Drought’s flip will tell us more. Karnatheon Another active player. Believes that randuir is Village and has done a lot of analysis of the action economy and negation. All of his suspicions seem reasonable so far, or at least they have good justification behind them. He seems genuinely helpful and is pointing things out that an Elim would benefit from simply ignoring. I think that I read Village on Karn. Rathmaskal Focused on BR earlier than others, which is notable, and claimed to have had his vote negated. It’s possible that this was an attempt by the Elims to clear him, especially on an already-confirmed vote against a Villager, but I’m not sure. It could also be the Elims trying to make things seem like that. Implied that people claiming their doc in-thread was a bad idea, and I think that this is an example of something that an Elim could just not state in order to sabotage the Village further. So far Rath hasn’t really done anything particularly egregious, but he also hasn’t done a great deal to redeem himself beyond focusing on BR. Droughtbringer Probably the strongest candidate for an Elim at the moment, because as has been pointed out he’s made a few posts, most of which don’t say much. This could imply enough activity to put in actions and maintain some presence but not enough to draw attention to himself. Additionally, voting on BR is an efficient way to get read as Village for lynching an Elim, even if that teammate was already doomed. Fura’s logic against him is sound, and I’m willing to see what happens and what that means about Fura. Amanuensis Now become active, which is good to see. Opposed the lynch against Fura, and also has some suspicions of me. I’m not entirely opposed to that, as any suspicion is healthy in this game. I’ll look forward to his reasoning. He was the one to start off the MetaTerminal vote, and recognised that fact, which is fishy but not impossible for a Villager to do. He retains suspicion of me through a second post, which is good to see because it’s not just throwing suspicion out there in the hopes that it forms a lynch. Has doubts about the Drought lynch, at least with the initial suspicions, which is reasonable. He suspects Mark for strange behaviour and for ‘claiming’ in the Warrior doc, which is an odd thing to say but I think that it’s worth waiting to see what Mark says until I decide on anything conclusive for these two. I'd say that Droughtbringer is the best candidate for a lynch. Mark isn't here and Drought's lynch will tell us about Fura, which is very useful.
  6. First chunk of a post that I'll finish tomorrow. Steeldancer Has been busy with studying, so there’s not much to read, but last Cycle he made a good point about contextualising posts. He also said that Bard was cleared, and Bard just died. That makes sense if the Elims are targeting people more likely to be construed as Villagers. He voted for Rath in Day 3 following randuir’s vote on Rath, but didn’t provide any context other than the fact that Rath “pointed him at Bard”. Notably, he’s reacted more excitably to the death of Snipexe and BR than most players would. That may just be his personality, but it’s something that I’m going to watch. Randuir One of the most active players here, which makes it difficult to summarise what he’s been doing and saying. He was the first one to throw a vote on BR which resulted in her lynch. It’s possible that this was a bus because BR was less active and randuir considered it more value to make himself trusted by the Village than have her be replaced by another player. I doubt that, though. Balthamel is powerful, and even when inactive, that role is still usable by the other Elims. I think that alone could clear randuir. He’s also expressed a desire to lynch Drought for placing the final vote on BR, which isn’t unreasonable. Accurately read Bard as Village (in a slightly roundabout way, but a read is a read). As an aside, it’d be basically impossible to force the Village to lynch randuir, which leaves me with curiosity about why randuir is even still alive. The Elims have killed Xinoehp, Ark, and Bard. All of these were not especially active players like Furari, Karnatheon, and randuir were. So the Elims are either playing this suboptimally or are trying to whittle down inactive players because they’d want a more sporting game. Do more experienced players want to weigh in and list who they think would want that to happen? I'll discuss these players tomorrow: Furamirionind, Karnatheon, Rathmaskal, Droughtbringer, Sart.
  7. Sorry for not posting. I'm super busy all weekend but I might be able to squeeze something out. This week has been a bit of a mess for me, I don't have many things to do but they all seem to take a lot of time. I really should be focusing on this more. In terms of the flip, I want to go and look more at Young Bard because of that attack on BR, because I want to see if his interactions with her clear him or look like a distancing act. I sided with BR back then because she was the defender but this does bring my initial thoughts into doubt.
  8. Alright, late post. Again, sorry. I accidentally pressed Ctrl+Z halfway through writing this and lost 15 minutes of work, so that's fun. It might be lacking a bit of content that I intended to put in. Sure. In my previous games I've expressed distaste at lynching inactives. I felt like it was killing someone for the crime of quietness, and that it was far more valuable to analyse players who had actually posted a lot, rather than taking shots in the dark against people who had said nothing. Lynching those who have a lot of content means that we can learn more from their deaths and flips, and do better vote analysis of the players who killed them. Killing inactives means that we're almost randomly killing people where there's a higher chance that they'd be Villagers than Elims. I still believe in all of that logic. However, I also realise that any lynch is better than no lynch, and if there are no suspicions then by lynching active players then not only do you have the same issue of shooting in the dark, you're also reducing your population of the few people who are talking, which is probably better for the Elims. I used the word "desensitised" because I no longer mind as much, but it's mostly because I see that there is more benefit to it than forcing people to lynch active people, which just muddies the waters. That's a rather specific thing to say, especially because it wouldn't be all that bad a tactic for denying the village useful information from your choice of kills IN all seriousness though, I'm starting to grow some doubts about them. They've voted for Droughtbringer twice, someone that at the time of his second vote still only had 1 no-info post. That was a fairly safe place for an elim to park their vote without risking either discussion or being on a mis-lynch as a lynch against a fully inactive was fairly unlikely to take off. He also made a fairly good case against me, but then didn't follow up this turn and I don't really see why he decided to pick doctor for his vote instead of me. On the other side of the scale there's his heavy investment in doing all the math around the rings and theorycrafting the best orders for defense, which certainly makes him look like he's heavily invested in the game, but ti doesn't really help us find elims. I'm going to keep an eye on him for now, but I'm not really feeling as good about him as I did earlier in the game. I'm starting to lean further to Elim on Fura, although not out of the Neutral zone. I don't believe that the mathematical Ring defence is particularly redeeming, because Elim!Furamirionind may have thought that it would be worth losing the threat of the Eye being destroyed in order to infiltrate the Villagers and be better trusted. I find the Drought vote strange as well. The justifications against me are...interesting. I feel like distrusting a player because they seem analytical and yet are still alive is a good enough reason. But note that randuir has been more analytical and active than me (and, I think, is a more dangerous player to the Elims) and is also still alive. I'm not saying that randuir is suspicious, but I would say that I am in a similar boat to him. I find that killing a player with a lot of analysis and opinions is often dangerous, because people have a tendency to consider why someone was killed (see Snipexe's post about Devotary's death) and look at who they suspected. The best strategy, I believe, is to wait until the player has stopped talking about your teammates, and then kill them and hope that no one looks back at who they suspected a Cycle or two ago. I don't think that the suspicions from this post are especially unreasonable, but I do disagree with them to some extent. "Watchlist" is a pretty frivolous term that find myself using to say that I'm going to be watching a player more than I was. I read Karnatheon as more Village than you, yes, but I trusted him more at the start and less now, so I'm going to be watching closer for slip ups. This is a weird way of me saying that a Villager would be analysing the Rings in order to help the Village, and an Elim would do it to make the Village trust and rely on them, making people subconsciously less likely to consider them for a lynch. Don't take the wording especially seriously, because I like to have fun with words and sometimes meaning is lost. Does that clear it up? I like to believe that everyone is sneakier than they appear. You're insightful and intelligent, so it's entirely reasonable that you could be fooling us all. I did so well in LG46 because people didn't believe that I could be as sneaky as I was, because I barely knew how to play and they had never met me before, unlike players who are notoriously sneaky. New and unfamiliar players are especially like that for me, which is how I feel about both you and Karnatheon. Several of Fura's votes have been pokes, or appear to be, which I agree is odd. However, as he says he does have some actual suspicions of me beyond poking. I agree with randuir, it should be easy enough to state suspicion of Furamirionind given his number of posts. I feel applies to Ark as well. So a combination of everything still gives me that gut feeling. Hmmm I was thinking this as you pointed it out. Additionally, a short one-line vote post doesn't look great for him. I think that it's better to vote for MetaTerminal than Furamirionind, if only because the latter has more posts and more to give (and more than I can analyse in a short space of time). In the interests of solidifying the vote, MetaTerminal / Ookla the Cited.
  9. Apologies for my inactivity last Night. I was doing job applications and had some other IRL stuff come up. I'll be heading to bed soon (watch me stay up for 3 hours making this post), but for now my thoughts are that Karnatheon is probably not an Elim based on how it would be a ridiculous gambit to focus on killing someone a simple Fal Dara warrior. Thoughts on some of the active players. Others and more detail coming when I wake up. randuir - Infuriatingly neutral Still pretty neutral. I find it odd that he supported the lynch against Snipexe (and voted on him earlier in the game) but then didn't vote when the lynch came around. He has provided some justification for this, but not all that much. I don't really see why an Elim would do that, though, unless they wanted any voting pattern analysis to look better if the analyser didn't look too hard at the context of the votes. The less Villagers you lynch, the better you look. Hmm, I'll think about that more. For now, randuir is pretty Village-neutral. Karnatheon - Village, on the watchlist I'm not going to trust him all that much, but that push just didn't seem realistic for an Elim. Too much risk for the reward of potentially getting Rand al'Thor, or just getting a Villager. It feels genuine, and the reasoning was still relatively sound. He seems mostly Village, but still earns a place to be watched thoroughly. Furamirionind - Village Remains one of the more Village-y players in the game, at least from tone and consistency. I think that trying to appear helpful through providing a bunch of analysis of the Rings (even if it's actual genuine help) is a good way to appear trusted. But a Villager would be doing this at least as much as an Elim, just for different reasons, so NAI. I wouldn't put it past Fura to be sneaky enough to make us all rely on them with that Ring analysis only to be playing us the whole time. But other than that possibility, everything else reads Village. Mark IV - Neutral A lot of the analysis he's provided has been gut-reads, which is not especially egregious, but some more solid opinions will tell me more. The claim about Snipexe being in the Fal Dara doc was helpful for information, certainly, but it also meant that Snipexe would be lynched based on what I had said. If Mark had kept quiet, the vote may have been more random and therefore potentially hit an Elim instead, especially since votes can get negated more easily in this game. Of course, this is a bit of a stretch, and objectively I think that I'd be much more suspicious in that circumstance than Mark, so others can make of that what they will. For now, neutral. Rathmaskal - Also neutral I'll admit that his vote on BrightnessRadiant looked a bit weak since he took it off pretty quickly, but he did say that it was a gut read, and if he was trying to start a bandwagon then BR was not the person to start it on. He was having some bad feelings about Karnatheon in Day Two, so I'd like to know more about that @Rathmaskal. I would like to see more content from him, as randuir has also said. Currently the worst things that he's done is vote for Snipexe and not provide many posts, so that's not enough to move me. Just at a guess I feel that one of these players is an Elim, although judging purely by activity and what stands out, Steel has been on just enough to make a post a day and in theory put in a kill action and have some activity in his doc(s). BR is in a similar boat, although with more posts. Steel's vote on Bard was pretty insubstantial and he would have known that, so given my opinion of Bard, if they're both Elims then it could have been distancing. But this is pretty baseless conjecture that I'm throwing out there for anyone to take up, and I'll build on it when I read those players in a bit more detail. That's all I have time for tonight. I'll post tomorrow, and try to be more active going forwards. I most likely will have the time in the next few days. Again, apologies for my quietness.
  10. "What splendid coincidence!" Lars said with a gleam in his eye. "Astoril was a butcher before he decided to apprentice to a surgeon!" Spinning around to his hand-servants, Lars motioned them to book an appointment for Antor. "Tell Astoril to make double the preparations! We're having a brain celebration!" Lars turned to face Antor again "I'm so glad you decided to change your mind." Antor fixed the grinning nobleman with a look that had made kings quail and tightened his grip on the sword.
  11. Lars lifted his hand against the sword. "You dare doubt my belief in modern medicine? Tairen surgeons are the best in the world. As it happens, I have one in my retinue. Would you like to me to schedule one for you too?" Antor snorted and a hint of a smile moved behind his beard. "I would sooner trust a butcher. At least he would know his way better around a bonesaw than one of yours."
  12. Scheduling my brain surgery right this minute! Antor Vadenfort hefted his sword. "That sounds far too costly. I have a better solution right here."
  13. Votes: Droughtbringer(1): Furamirionind. Rathmaskal(1): Randuir. Young Bard(1): Steeldancer. Xino(1): Ark. Snipexe(4): Karnatheon, Mr Doctor, BrightnessRadiant, Rathmaskal. Karnatheon(1): Snipexe.
  14. Yeah. I'm actually wishing he does get . lynched. It would clear up D1 to some extent too. As it stands, we basically don't know the results of D1 yet Does that mean you'll vote? Bleh. I guess my suspicions of Bard can wait until I hear more from him. This might come back to bite me, but it's worth it to get an Elim or identify Karnatheon. Young Bard / Ookla the Unprepared. Snipexe / Ookla the Skeptical Votes: Droughtbringer(1): Furaminoid. Rathmaskal(2): Randuir, BrightnessRadiant. Young Bard(1): Steeldancer. Xino(1): Ark BrightnessRadiant(1): Rath Snipexe(2): Karnatheon, Mr Doctor. Karnatheon(1): Snipexe
  15. Good to know. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it makes it less likely that you're an Elim sacrificing yourself to lynch Rand. If he wasn't in that doc, he would either be Aginor or Rand, and that's a 50/50 that I'm not sure I want to take. Given how much you pushed for it, it made me suspicious, but now that I know that he could be a Fal Dara Elim, I'm more tempted to vote for him. If he flips Village, then you would be the highest candidate for an Elim.