CadCom

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364 Ferring

About CadCom

  • Rank
    Don't hold your breath
  • Birthday 03/09/1996

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  • Website URL
    https://austintakesus.wordpress.com/
  • AIM
    As you can see, I have a blog
  • MSN
    But I'm not very good at updating it.
  • ICQ
    Please give me inspiration
  • Yahoo
    By giving me topic suggestions.

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Utah
  • Interests
    Anything Outdoors, Especially on Roshar

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  1. Uh... Hi. I thought the cycle was moved to close at 6:00 PM, not 6:00 AM, so I'm fairly surprised to see we're on a new cycle. I don't really know how to prove my innocence, but I don't have an Aviar, so I haven't been able to submit any actions. I haven't had any private conversations. I'm just kinda floating in the game right now. Also, yes, I did move my vote from Straw to mint. In the 4-2 situation, where we lynch a trapper, don't we lose? once it's even numbers, isn't it game over? Or am I misunderstanding the rules. So let's see, we've got @Ashbringer, @Kings_way, @Gears, @The Windrunner Supreme, @Frozen Mint, and @CadCom still alive, according to the list above. Of these people, I would say Gears is most active, followed by either me or Ash, then windrunner, and with Kings_way and Mint being least active. would we all agree with that order or activity? From my perspective, if we assume one active elim, and one inactive elim, I agree it's better to get rid of the active eliminator first. (I know, it's opposite my stance from last cycle, but the situation has changed, now we're essentially at lylo, and last cycle we weren't) Assuming one active elim, (which I believe to be the most likely), I would say it is among Gears, Ashbringer, and Windrunner. I'm not entirely certain about gears, because I've been reading you as neutral all game, which is a dangerous read. Ive been reading ashbringer and windrunner as mild elim to mild village, kindof on an oscillating cycle. (when I read one one way, I read the other the other) But right now, I'm following my gut, and I'm gonna start the votes on Windrunner. This may change if I have time while at work to review their posts, and look into gear's posts as well.
  2. straw. I think I got a fair enough of Straws reasoning regarding the nightmaw kill. I dont agree with it,but it desnt seem like an elim move or thought from Straw. I dont have a whole lot of time right now, so I'm going to go ahead and start a contribution crusade on Mint for now. I'll try to see later if I can determine which of the most inactives would have most likely been elkanah teammate.
  3. Nice! Well played Illwei! So I think that makes me, ash and Straw most suspicious. And I think it clears (somewhat) windrunner. For now I'm going to start with a vote on Straw That might change, but I'd still like to hear more from straw. Since I dont understand how the fact that the nightmaw was just released means theres an elim in the inactives? And now, sleeping time.
  4. Ok. Not sure if I counted right but I got Turtle (3) Windrunner (2) Gears (1) I've had 2 large assignments and a midterm exam due over the last few days, so my analysis will be very short so I can get back to my article analysis. So I'm most suspicious of these three, and straw. Next on the list would probably be the inactives? I didnt like turtles votes and comments from my quick reread of last cycle, but I think windrunners comments felt more off. Since I'd be fine with either being, for now I'll go with windrunner . I'll try to get on one more time close to rollover. If I feel its needed, I'll change my vote to turtle. Sorry I cant do more now. Hopefully next cycle will be better.
  5. So here's an analysis of the votes (and retractions) this cycle so far, in order. Straw: Matrim's dice elkanah: Illwei Elkanah: Illwei Ashbringer: Illwei, Elkanah Matrim: Gears Straw: Matrim's Dice Elkanah: Cadcom, Matrim's dice Matrim: Gears Illwei: Gears Matrim: Windrunner Supreme Elkanah: Ashbringer Ashbringer: Illwei Ashbringer: Elkanah Matrim: Elkanah TOTALLY UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT Elkanah (3): CadCom, Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer Illwei (1): Gears Matrim (2): Windrunner Supreme, Elkanah. So I find it interesting, Elkanah is kindof just following suit on all of their votes. They followed Illwei to vote on Ash, and later to remove their vote from Ash, right after Illwei again. Then Elkanahs second vote on Matrim behind Windrunner. Well, I guess it's not the Second vote, just the second current counting vote. The first vote was actually by Gears, and was later removed. So that means that there had already been some discussion about Matrim, kindof weakening my thought process. Also rereading, it appears that vote was at least partially a vote to help save themself Yeah, sorry, I leave the screen up on my work computer between calls, so it shows me lurking a lot when really I'm on a call, and not even looking. Don't know what elk's excuse is Ok. I think I was considering the stay for a moment, but I just feel like your posts that you have had time to make aren't super analysis-ey, when they could have been more. I guess one more cycle wouldn't hurt too much, so I'll continue considering it, but for now, for the votey trend I noted above, I'll keep my vote on you.
  6. I think I disagree with Illewei's change to Ashbringer. I get that Elkanah has been busy. Believe me, I do. I've efinitely had games where I struggle with activity too. But If I remember Elkanah's style, they were always one to try to help solve the game in pretty much any post. To me it seems most of Elkanah's posts this game are simply apologizing for their inactivity. IIRC correctly back to like 8 months ago(and there is room for error there) but even in Elkanah's most simple posts, there was some sort of direction to help out the village. Even Elk's most recent post only says what they would have done, and not much about their current thoughts And when there's little participation prior to that, it's really easy to pretend what you would have done. For that reason, I think I'm going to vote Elkanah for now. Ninja'd by both Matrim and Gears. I'll try to see if there's anything there I feel I should respond to
  7. Gaahhh. I have a belief that new people who are elims first game will typically will typically be at least coached to avoid trains. Maybe I'm wrong, but my gut says that if they're new, it increases their chance of being innocent. Windrunner, does anyone know how long Illweis been playing, since they were next on my list? Also note, I'm getting on for about a minute at a time, between calls while at work. So if anything doesnt make sense, feel free to ask me any questions.
  8. Wow, that doesn't look like a great start. A trapper with a spy aviar was killed, and two other trappers. So I think Ganderflaffle would have been killed by chance, since the other two are normal trappers. That leaves Silberfarben to have been killed by the elims, and Reading to have been killed by the lynch, as we know already. As for this cycle, voting is so far as follows: Straw (1): Illwei JesterLavorre(1): Straw Windrunner Supreme (1): Kings_way. That's not a whole lot of activity, which only benefits the elims. I'll go ahead and look at the votes on Reading. Those people are Matrim's Dice, JesterLavorre, The Windrunner Supreme, Straw, Illwei. First thing I want to note, is of those people, Matrim's dice is the only person not to be voted on or to have voted this cycle, (as of when I type this paragraph). The problem for me is that each of these players, except straw, is essentially new to me, so I don't know if they've played 5 games or 1 or none, or if they played mafia at at different platform before coming here. In addition to that, I know nothing of their playstyle. So Matrims Dice: Poke voted me early, then removed the poke vote once I came on. That's NAI. With regards to the vote on Reading, it was the second vote during the push in the last half hour of the cycle. The vote on Reading seemed to not have much supporting reasoning in that post, but they were part of a pretty significant discussion, and expressed their opinion a fair amount of time. I'll keep it as nai right now JesterLavorre: Jester also didn't put any reasoning behind their vote when they actually voted. But even though they weren't actively commenting, there is evidence from their posts that they had been following along in the discussion. Windrunner Supreme: The gut feeling also put the 4th vote on Reading. The only alternative with any vote at the time was silberfarben, and everyone was really already backing off of them. To me it feels like they read through the comments and just voted on the person that most people decided to vote on. Illwei started the last minute train. But they was also part of the discussion as well prior to that. Part of me says it looks like Illwei is village, but the other part of me thinks that it looks like Illwei saw Jester uncertain, and decided to try to change the lynch to someone just to get Jester to follow. And it looks like that worked. The only problem with that theory is that the secondary candidate (Silber) was also killed and turned up village. Straw is the only player of these that I'm certain I've played with before. This makes my read of them more complicated to put down. I've always had a tough time reading straw, though I do agree with Illwei that straw did seem pretty protective of Silber, but then Silber died. It could still be a pocketing, or distancing tactic. Making it look like straw was only protecting another villager. I also find it interesting that Silber was the topic of a good portion of the discussion, then later killed. Anyhow, The way I see it, there are 2 main possibilities, with each possibility having subpossibilities( In order of most to least likely IMO) 1. There are at least one elim among those that voted on Reading A. Windrunner B. Illwei C. Straw D. Matrim E. Jester 2. There are no elims that voted on Reading I hope to do further analysis on this possibility either later today or tomorrow.
  9. Hi, I'm here. Yes, I'm a returning player. It's been a few months. Anyway, skimming the rules, is everyone supposed to have experience? because if so, can I get @Experience to PM me my experience level, or am I supposed to find that somewhere else? Other than that, I'm going to hold off on major analysis until next cycle. After I've seen stuff actually happen, my analysis powers go up exponentially, so I will choose to wait. I would be happy to answer any questions though, as those are not part of my normal analysis.
  10. Hey guys, I think I'll have time for at least mediocre participation in this game. Hopefully more. Signing up. First person who wants to can choose my name.
  11. K I'm not feeling the Drake lynch right now. I might be up for it after u have some time to think about it. It's a busy weekend, so I wont have much time to do analysis. But were one cycoe away from lylo. So we need to get someone soon. Regarding my attack and survival, I would like any info on that please. If anyone claims to have attacked me I think they would most likely he cleared and also whoever protected me might also he cleared, or they're teammates and i am being scapegoated into a wgg
  12. Sorry guys, I woke up later than I wanted, so I didn't have time to research. I'll just put my vote on Karnage who I've been more suspicious of of the two. Sorry if you're village.
  13. I'll try to wake up early and look at the lynch and perhaps reevaluate my vote, but could someone post a vote count overnight?
  14. Well, I was wrong about walin, I'll have to look back into Bard, and I'm rather upset I've been expelled.