Elandera

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Everything posted by Elandera

  1. Wait, I realized a flaw in my earlier clear of Bugsy. That vote was, I believe, after Alv's lynch was pretty well settled. Likely distancing. Rath Bugsy
  2. Though I mentioned your scan, I completely forgot it had been a redirect when I wrote that part of my post. This is possible. It could have been a well-intentioned move from a villager hoping for an honest scan on the lynch target. I'm trying to stick to the principle of Occam's Razor for the rest of the game, though, so I avoid another unnecessary tunnel. This certainly wouldn't be the simplest answer. Thus, I rescind my suspicion of Devotary for now. We're about 30 minutes away, and still lacking a target with enough votes, barring vote manip, to lynch. Current targets are Fith, Devotary, and myself with one vote each. I think I'll vote on Rath for the possibility of inactive elims. I'm sorry, it's too late for me to do more.
  3. Lynch vote count: Fifth (1) - Rae Araris (1) - Striker Devotary (1) - Drake I am relatively confident at the moment Fifth is village. His post counts have been low, and I'd expect him to dedicate a little more time to the game if he were elim. Plus some of his voting earlier on gave me a very village impression. As far as I remember, Striker's Araris vote was because Araris is going inactive anyway, and well, why not? I can't say I really have a stance either way on that lynch. It's not bad, but it's not our best option. This post is why I'm mildly suspicious of @Devotary of Spontaneity at the moment. If Fura is to be believed and Kidpen was an elim (which I'm comfortable in believing), I could easily believe some of those last votes on Kidpen were an attempt to increase the chance for an incorrect flip. While Devotary's reasoning is sound and very villagery (not wanting unnecessary deaths), that easily could have been a guise for worse intentions. I am no where near confident enough to vote there without doing more analysis, though. Especially since most of the other content I remember from her has been relatively villagery or neutral at worst. In the end, I'm really not sure what to do. I'm not confident enough to place a vote anywhere without it being almost entirely random, and I didn't get the time I had hoped for today to run an analysis. Editing this book is taking me far too long, and I really need to keep it my priority. Unfortunately, that means SE games have to take a hit. Governor vote count: Drake (3) - Striker, HH, Drake Elandera (2) - Rae, Elandera EDIT: Since no one else has posted, I'll edit this in: A quick analysis of a few people who've been sticking to the shadows this game. I'm not reading through everything, so there may be several mistakes. I apologise. Feel free to correct me. Rathmaskal - Has made three posts, the first being a check-in D2 and promise to catch up. The second post was an acknowledgement of inactivity and a vote on Alv. The third was a response to no read, saying they haven't posted enough. I might consider a lynch, if we have any suspicion elims might be inactive. Which, now that I think about it, it's quite possible. The lack of dagger kills has me wondering if the elims either don't have any, or are not around to kill. Shqueeves - Most of his posts have been in the vein of "no idea what's happening, it's all moving too quickly." I think it's a pretty accurate summation of this whole game, especially the last few hours of some turns. Their last post was a few turns ago, saying they wouldn't be on the next turn at all for RL. Snipexe - Did we ever get a scan on him? There was a question at the beginning of how he ended with the dagger that killed Burnt, and I can't remember at the moment how that was resolved. I might be willing to vote there, if nothing else comes up. Wait, skimming more helped me remember that it was Ray who stabbed Burnt, and I thought originally it might have been to pass the Alleyverse dagger to an Allyversian (?). Still worth looking into if he hasn't been scanned. HH - He had a few posts earlier on, with some substance regarding what was happening. Mostly NAI, though. Another one I might consider lynching if we think elims might be somewhat inactive. Bugsy - Probably the most suspicious of the lot. That post shows he's a bit suspicious of Gaea (possible distancing) and has a village lean on Alv fairly early. I'm not sure about anyone else, but I'm always reluctant to give Alv a village lean without some solid evidence. However, his next post was after the last constable lynch, where he votes on Alv for pushing against a Gaea lynch, so it could be distancing, or more likely, just village. He's still crazy for giving Alv a village lean...
  4. I don't have time to go through turns, as I didn't wake up when I had hoped (stupid storms). So, I'll just go with Burnt's style and do a read list. 1. Haelbarde 49% - Nothing is really sticking out to me as village or elim. His posts tend to have been helpful, thus I'm inclined to lean village, but I would like to get a better read. Part of this also may be it being my first game with him, so I'm not sure how to read him. 2. Burnt Spaghetti 10% - She's been active in PMs, and the one I've had with her gives me a very village read. Combine that with her getting attacked, and I'd put her solid village. 3. Snipexe 42% - This is another one where I'm unsure because of post count and content. The misting claim followed by nothing from the Seeker has me leaning toward villager, but would still like scan results to confirm. To be clear, not results of what kind of misting (only Snipexe should reveal that if he chooses to do so), just that it is a valid or invalid claim. 6. Lumgol 35% - I no longer hold the suspicions of her I used to. She's not the type of player, at least not previously been the type, to send in actions without at least making a small "I'm here, I exist" post. She had been online, but not posted last turn when Araris was attacked, so I doubt she's the Inquisitor. 8. shanerockes 50% - He's been around, but hasn't contributed a whole lot. This is fairly consistent from what I've seen in previous games with him, so NAI. 9. Doc12 25% - I've gotten a village read from him in PMs. Plus, as others have said, if he knows a Smoker and the Smoker hasn't been killed, he's unlikely to be the Inquisitor. 13. Fifth Scholar 10% - A lot of the same reasoning as Burnt and Doc. He was attacked, apparently knows of at least on Misting that has survived, and overall has been helpful and pushing for good discussions. 14. Devotary of Spontaneity 51% - I struggle a little bit with my read on Devotary. Some of her D1 posts gave me and elim vibe, but I really can't see elim!Devotary aligning herself in any way with Randuir's Mistborn claim. Since I'm inclined to trust Burnt's post, Devotary's response to suspicion is a bit strange. I just don't know what to think at this point, so I'm putting her at a solid neutral, very slight elim lean. 15. Rathmaskal 40% - I don't remember a lot of their posts atm, but from what I remember they didn't really set off my elim sensors. I'd like to look more closely at them. 16. Young Bard 35% - I haven't gotten any kind of read, which makes me lean village. I'm also willing to trust Burnt and Doc on this, but like Rath, I'd like to look more at his posts just to see. 17. Sart 42% - Same as Snipexe, really. Has claimed Misting, which I'm inclined to trust after Randuir's downfall. However, there's been too few posts to really get a read. 18. STINK 40% - I'm inclined to trust Stink, but I have a hard time finding the right book to get a read on them, which is why it's closer to neutral. Overall, I'm left at Devotary being my only suspicion at the moment, with neutral reads close behind on Shane and Hael. If it's delayed until tomorrow, I might actually get some real analysis done before the end of this turn. That's my vote.
  5. You're doing fine, Fura. We still love you! Also, with my claiming, don't feel you've forced me into not having fun. I claimed because I saw some reason to claim that is important to solving the game, not because I felt that was the only way to help us put differences aside. I think by claiming at least some of the items, we can better track what happens. Especially with warrants, which is why I claimed mine. If things are suspiciously stolen with warrants, having some kind of tracking for them will work out for village in the end. And might keep elims from using them too much without a good explanation. Other items, such as whiskey and ledgers, I'm still less inclined to have claimed, except after it's been used.
  6. I think it was these two posts, both of which also gave me that impression during my last analysis. I think now your point was not necessarily "don't lynch a misting C1," but instead that we shouldn't delay finding the inquisitor just to lynch a misting for the conversion. Fifth's post did remind me, though, I had some reservations about Devotary after my last analysis of C1 and C2. My biggest hang-up on actually lynching her, though, is changing her vote after Randuir's Mistborn claim. There was too much that could easily collapse after a scan. I don't think the Inquisitor would have wanted to tie themselves to that outcome, especially not elim!Devotary. She tends to be much sneakier than that. I wanted to get a vote in tonight, but I'm mentally exhausted after work and I don't think I'd do any real justice to analysis. I'd more likely end up in a tunnel, as usually happens when I'm rushed and tired. I should get it done before the end of the turn still.
  7. I went back a few turns to skim Fura's posts, and this is what I found for reasoning: I think someone else had suggested sending Whiskey to Fura, but I'm not looking that closely at the moment. I need to turn my focus to the other game. Sorry I didn't respond earlier to your request, Fura. My natural inclination, as stated before, is to not claim and just be very cautious about approaching the subject in general. As in, I avoid it entirely. However, I don't see the reasoning. Butt Ad Venture does a pretty good job of explaining what I think may be Fura's point, though. For those that don't want to read all those terrible puns, his point is transparency is good if we actually want to work together. I'm hoping to make amends a bit, and get this game moving in the right direction, so I'm going to very reluctantly claim. I have a warrant as well. I do still think it would be a good idea for someone with a ledger and dagger to attack Alvron tonight, so we can know for sure his alignment. This is part of why I don't think claiming things like ledgers and whiskey is a good idea. If people with ledgers all claim, elims will know which people to redirect to avoid the wrong people being scanned.
  8. I disagree. I have never been a fan of claiming and probably never will, no matter what style of game I'm playing. One of the main advantages elims have over village is knowledge. Roles, or in this case items, are where village holds the advantage. This game has too many interference mechanics that anyone can carry out as long as they have boxings. The elims seem to have proven they have boxings in abundance. So please, do not confuse my reluctance to claim with being an elim. I do not claim because that would give a huge advantage away. Say I had whiskey and claimed. Elims could either redirect my action in hopes of gaining control over the item, or use a warrant to just outright steal it. If we let elims know exactly where all the items are, they'll know exactly who to bribe/stab/steal from. Also, I understand your frustrations. This is a bit of a chaotic game with some interesting mechanics. I caution you, however, to push so demandingly for your view to be the only correct view. People have different styles of playing, which is part of what makes this game fun. This does make me believe you're village, at least. This much passion is rare in elims.
  9. We can always have someone use a ledger on him if we're unsure. If he's village, we'll know, and maybe something will come of having a ledger passed around the jail. We'd probably want a governor first, though, so we might have a chance to get it back. Or have someone dagger Alv the same turn so all items go back into circulation.
  10. I think you misunderstood my sentence. I'm concerned about the people who have remained largely aloof from the debate, content to let us keep our narrow focus. Oh, I see it now. The 'not' doesn't belong in the last phrase. I think I changed my planned sentence part way through. I think my original sentence was "I'm concerned most about people who've been around, but not doing anything about our focus on Bard/Drake/Striker." That's my fault, I apologise. I'm inclined to trust Rae for her attempted last-minute vote on Alvron. Devotary has me questioning, though. I want to look more closely at her posts and stances.
  11. The extended cycle is good news. I should have time, then, before the end of this turn to peg down some real suspects. I'm concerned most about people who've been around, but not seemingly content to let us keep focusing on Bard/Drake/Striker.
  12. Costs for buying changes every turn based on demand. They're both currently at 5.
  13. Wait, what? So, scan was redirected onto the lynch target. Interesting. Are you sure he isn't showing corrupt for another reason? Though I'm not seeing any obvious vote manipulation, so likely not. I am more inclined to believe at this point elims redirected it onto Kidpen to keep us trapped in our echo chamber, and that Bard actually is village. It's still possible he's elim, but I want to take a closer look before I take any actions right now. Maybe get an actual scan on him. @A Joe in the Bush, just to clarify, buying a random item and a specific item are both supposed to cost the same?
  14. @DrakeMarshmallow, your explanation is fair, and probably right. Last turn I was frustrated and a bit panicked that Fura didn't seem like they would actually scan any of you, which is why I was willing to push a Bard lynch. Part of why I have yet to actually vote on either of you is because I'm aware how bad tunnels are. Of the three, Bard has accumulated the most actual evidence of possibly being elim, which is why I was willing to put my vote on him. I suppose I didn't say it quite right last turn. If he does show as evil, I would look closer into you and Striker. And do some actual analysis. I haven't had time to do any of that, hence me being stuck.
  15. If he flipped evil, and the percentage for error was low enough, I'd probably go after Drake and/or Striker. I'm still not sure about Fura, as I've read them as village for a while. My concern, again, is Fura doesn't seem to want to scan any of them. Unless I can get confirmation that's going to happen, I'd prefer a lynch over nothing. Additionally, I don't think the Kidpen lynch is a good choice. Not only do I think he's probably not elim, but we'd learn far less from that lynch than a Bard lynch. I'm going to sleep now, so my vote will remain where it is.
  16. We are trying to lynch one, and you're actively discouraging it. I admit, I've been tunneling hard on Striker. There was a turn where everything he said just set off the alarm bells of suspicion. I trusted Fura enough to not vote on him, but I can't shake what happened that turn. That's why I've got my tin foil hat solidly on my head as I push my conspiracy theory. Part of why I'm pushing for it is because Fura didn't actually seem inclined to scan one of you this turn. That didn't help resolve my conspiracy theory suspicions, despite trusting him. Part of why I think Bard would be a good lynch is because it might finally help us move past the whole trust circle thing. And I'm concerned even if Fura were to scan him, elims would interfere. If Bard is elim, it would protect him. If he's village, elims would be very content to let us keep spiraling down this rabbit hole. A lynch is somewhat more difficult to interfere with, as long as the votes are right. I'm not sure why. He adamantly pushed for the Gaea lynch for several turns. While it could have been an attempt to appear village once Gaea was revealed, he seemed honest about it. That's, unfortunately, about all he's seemed to have time for. Thank you for your support. I thought I'd already voted on myself for governor, but it's not showing in vote counts. So Elandera.
  17. I don't have much to say at the moment, other than I'm hoping to take some time before this turn ends to go into my suspicions. Unfortunately, that probably won't happen until late tomorrow night, as I still have work to deal with. Overall, I need to re-look at my suspicions, as I think I've confused some of them between games >.< I'm no longer suspicious of Lum, as I don't believe she's the kind of player to send in actions without actually posting. Fifth, Burnt, and Doc still remain in my village category. Suspicions are going to have to wait until I can review things. I'd like to take a closer look at Rath, Devotary, and probably Stink.
  18. That's actually pretty interesting. Could you quote/link that post? Until then, I'm comfortable placing a vote on Bard as well.
  19. My current reads: Part of me wants to just let go of my tunneling on Striker and accept he's probably not an elim, but part of me still really just wants to lynch him so I can stop wondering. My biggest concern right now is that the actual elims are hiding in that neutral category, content to let us just keep the focus on the wrong people. Hence why I wanted to get to a point today (though I'm at work and don't know if I'll really have the time) and read through interactions and votes from before to make sure we haven't missed anything while we've been focused on Drake/Striker/Bard.
  20. Or they could have been hoping for what's happening now. It's a rabbit hole, I admit, but one we have to at least consider. Also, regarding false claiming elim/village reads. While the mechanics of the game do allow for that play to be more plausible, it's also still a very dangerous move. If their target is lynched and flips correctly with low percentage, or flips incorrectly but the percentage was high enough, that would still bring immediate suspicion down on the liar.
  21. While I whole-heartedly agree we need a governor, I don't have the same trust in Drake you have, @Furamirionind. Your reasoning that they'd have no reason to pass a ledger outside the elim circle is flawed. The reason to pass it outside is because if the team does include Drake, they were basically told they must or else. If there's another teammate we don't know about, passing it to them would reveal that hidden link. I admit, the theory is unlikely, but I'm having a difficult time trusting any of you, Striker, or Drake at the moment. I don't think voting for or against Drake is alignment indicative, as there would be plenty of reasonable villagers who just don't agree with clearing Drake. Hopefully I'll have some time today to look into people outside the main focus so far, such as @Haelbarde, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Kidpen, and @Butt Ad Venture (especially for saying we should give up in electing a governor...)
  22. Current vote count: Alvron (8) (7) - Bard, Striker, Fura, Bugsy, Elandera, Rath, Drake, Rae Araris (1) - Fifth That puts us at a dangerous 40% that he'll flip incorrectly. I will remove my vote only for the purpose of bringing that percentage down. I don't think we'll get enough support to put it at the opposite. Of all players, knowing Alvron's alignment would be very useful. Alvron
  23. Couple of comments, we should try to expand our focus. Clearly Striker is still suspicious, but it does no good for us to keep talking about it. Second, we can't bring El back. El and Burnt are dead, not in jail. The Governor can only free someone from jail, not raise them from the dead. They're not a necromancer, unfortunately. We should probably get around to electing a governor soon, before the elims have the potential to outnumber us. To that end, Elandera.
  24. That makes sense. I know when I should be sleeping, I don't make the best decisions (hence my crazy voting ) Also, as to your second point regarding your stance on Gaea. That also makes more sense. I might still try to scan you if I ever get my hands on a ledger, but most of my suspicion is assuaged at the moment. At least as much as can be in this game.
  25. I'm a little flabbergasted by this. I did cast suspicion on Striker because I 100% thought he was an elim. I didn't vote on him at your own request. I was hoping for a Gaea lynch, as both you and Fifth, two players I trusted, seemed to think Gaea was the corrupt constable. However, other than Fifth, I was the only one who seemed to be advocating for the lynch. My vote on Alv was a result of not liking Rae as the top lynch, and him being the only who seemed to get enough support. I removed it when Elbereth didn't respond quickly with a vote in an attempt to get at least someone people would be willing to lynch, and hopefully get the votes from being quite so horribly spread out. When Elbereth voted, I moved it back to follow the original idea of lynching Alv. And regarding your "if I was an elim" statement. You were pushing for a Gaea lynch, but not really. You stated multiple times you though Gaea was the corrupt constable, but for some reason, never wanted to vote in that direction and even discouraged people from voting there. Why was that? I'm starting to think we should just start having however many votes we think is necessary on a target, despite the possibility of a wrong flip. This vote manipulation is out of control. Because of that Alv.