Ivory Dragonfly

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About Ivory Dragonfly

  1. I disagree about the lack of lynch hurting, since the roleblock function is quite helpful in tracking down who can and can't take actions when people die. It is also helpful if we suspect someone of being Lews to roleblock them so they can't protect themselves. Also, if there was a lynch and the number of kills apparently available, we'd be going through people so much more quickly with likely no more success than currently. Our biggest problem is lack of discussion. We're more than 24 hours into the turn, and we've had a grand total of three (make that four, I just got ninja'd) people say anything. @Charcoal Hyena, @Azure Mouse, @Coral Swan, @Emerald Falcon. As for who can take extra actions, it is quite likely Lews is in that category. If he has teammates, then likely there is one elim with that ability. My bet was on Crocodile, since they were a step above Forsaken in the scheme of things. There may also be a neutral with more than one action. I can agree with this. Their apparent lack of activity also lines up with fewer kills. D1 when they were roleblocked, there was only one death, and this last turn when they never posted, again there was only one death. Azure Mouse.
  2. (Fifth, that cycle close deserves all the upvotes.) Interesting choice in kill. I have my doubts that came from the Lews Crew, considering there was just enough suspicion on Vulture to cause a distraction. More likely, it was another village/neutral taking advantage of the fact Vulture was going to be roleblocked. If my theory is correct, it would also mean either the Lews Crew didn't take a kill action, or their action failed. I'm inclined to trust Tuatara a bit more because of their action with Vulture, unless Moraine happens to be part of the game. But still, a hypothetical role is not enough cause for a lynch. The low vote count is not a good sign moving forward. We need to get some more activity going. @Azure Mouse was the only player that did not post last cycle. What are your thoughts on the game so far? Also, I want to point something out in regards to clearing someone based on actions. From the original game post: Bolded is mine. As we know all players have access to some actions, this would suggest some players can take more than one action per cycle.
  3. I disagree with this and can think of several reason it would be prudent to not claim. First, it won't exactly help solve much. We know there are 13 Forsaken total, and one player has already flipped as not one of them. That means those who aren't actually Forsaken can wait until everyone else has claimed, then pick the names that have been left off the list. It might be suspicious that they waited, but they could feign inactivity. Second, what does knowing their names actually do? I can't think of much it helps the village figure out, other than maybe a canon timeline, but that won't help us find Lews. It does, however, help the Lews Crew a lot. If they have knowledge or the ability to Google, they can easily figure out who may be more dangerous based on canon. Third, consider one of the Forsaken win-cons of killing Lews. What if they have a similar condition of finding specific roles to eliminate? We'd be handing them a win on a silver platter.
  4. It seems a majority lynch doesn't make any difference, unless @Coral Swan can confirm otherwise. Anyone willing to claim those kills? Though, if the write-up was to be considered accurate, Ostrich killed Albatross and was then killed by Lews' Crew. Even without the write-up, I'd still suspect Ostrich of being dead as a result of Lews because of their claim as a female Forsaken, and thus less likely to draw suspicion away from him. We should get the voting started early to avoid the same last-minute choice as last turn. I'll vote on Amber Vulture. They have been active and involved with hypothesizing, but has avoided taking the lead in a lot of ways. Also, can I just say how difficult analysis is when I don't feel I have a good grasp of rules/roles/alliances? Now that we can be comfortable knowing it's a roleblock only, I'm more willing to lynch on a gut feeling.
  5. With just a few hours left in the turn, we should start getting some votes down. I will place a vote on Coral Swan. The reason for now is nothing more than instinct. Also, we still need input from the following players: @Melon Dingo @Fuchsia Ostrich @Emerald Falcon @Cream Tuatara @Coral Swan
  6. Mouse would have have been able to take an action last cycle, as they were roleblocked C1. That's also the turn where the only kill was carried out by a claimed Forsaken. While this is not condemning on its own, it does provide some reason to not discount Mouse as a possible Lews candidate.
  7. Our conversation was mostly regarding our roles and abilities. I shared my role/alignment/win-con and they shared their abilities. They had access to two Balefires, as well as a few other abilities. If anyone else in the Dark One's retinue has similar powers, it would be incredibly powerful. Also, after learning more about the Balefire abilities Weasel had, I suspect the win-con to kill Lews may be more difficult than it first appears. Which is another reason I suspect Lews has allies.
  8. My thought process was that we know there aren't 13 Forsaken (with how Crocodile flipped), and after discussions with Weasel in PM, those aligned with the Dark One seem very powerful. It would be a little unfair to expect one person to survive alone against 13 very powerful players. Therefore, this is probably balanced similarly to a standard game with around three people on Lews' side, hence Lews' Crew. I don't know WoT well enough to hypothesize within the bounds of canon. Instead I am using what knowledge I do posses of SE and Mafia.
  9. Weasel's death was likely a result of Lews' Crew, considering they were probably the most trusted so far. At least we know when someone's killed with Balefire rather than by other means. I can also confirm the lynch was a roleblock.
  10. The implication of this post (and the general sentiment so far this game) is that we should lynch someone for not providing a provable claim. That is the beginning of a very dangerous road. I understand it can help solve the game, but since when has this community ever expected a mass claim D1, even in a blackout format? Such a thing tends to ruin the fun for anyone not aligned with the masses. It's also patently flawed, as not all village roles can be proved. Please move forward cautiously and find real reason to lynch someone, not based solely on their desire or ability to provide a claim.
  11. Is there a harm in having a tied vote and end up with people only roleblocked? In the case of a tie, it either does nothing different and we have 1-2 people roleblocked (or 3 if we want to get adventurous and have a triple tie), or it does something entirely unique and we reveal another aspect of the game. I expect Fifth may have planned for the latter. As for the suspicion on me, I won't refute it much beyond what I've already said. Weasel was kind enough to open a PM with me and I have talked with them some regarding my alignment and goals in regards to the Forsaken. They do not conflict with one another.
  12. I'm down for either a tie or a majority. However, I'm not down for a majority on me. As for roles/balance, I'm inclined to believe this is closer to a normal elim game. There are probably 3-4 (depending on their abilities) players aligned with Lews, a neutral or two, and the rest being aligned with the Dark One.
  13. Interesting. Very interesting. I don't think we should all try to kill Mouse just for surviving the lynch, especially since we don't exactly know what a lynch does. If anyone has roleblocks, though, it may be beneficial to keep them controlled? At least until we know more about lynch mechanics. Mauve appears to have been attacked, but the wording makes me think it may not be totally permanent. As for why, maybe it was the Lews faction or another Forsaken hoping for confirmation.