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Chartreuse Penguin

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Everything posted by Chartreuse Penguin

  1. Scorpion still technically doesn't have his flip in the player list.
  2. I mean, I also had quite bad voting patterns. I think I voted on an Elim twice before that last turn? And one of those was on Albatross the turn where we definitely should have taken out Vulture instead of splitting enough for a Heron exe. Probably were a few clues. But despite my efforts, I also just did not have time for an extensive reread in addition to playing defense so much. Also both times I got exe-tied, it was all from Village votes
  3. send.response:”SEEMS CONVINCING ENOUGH’.’ vote.[user[Pearl_Chameleon]]” … wait, what?
  4. I think to be clear - still a Coinflip to be determined as to who wins or not. In the meantime, us ghosts get to hang around. And fortunately, I'm not obligated to haunt Swan's Beagle?
  5. Well, Beagle hasn’t even logged in in the past 7 hours, so. I don’t even know. Chameleon, Beagle. Might as well.
  6. (Edit if Merge) What will probably be one last thing. Chameleon, if you really think Beagle would be an E!Mistborn, you can’t 1v1 them D9, not as an even 50-50 Coinflip. 3 out of 8 times they’ll either pull Soother or Rioter or Thug, then they just win instead.
  7. … fair enough, I suppose. I’m beginning to wonder if we’re all Villagers and that this is just a prank because the Elim team imploded.
  8. … Either we have one Villager who’s decided they’re not going to change their mind, or one Villager who’s decided they’re going to play on autopilot. And if you both are convinced I’m Elim, then somehow that Village has both. Oxblood Beagle Pearl Chameleon I don’t know which one of you is the Elim here, and maybe there’s more evidence one way or another. But I’d rather lose to Beagle than lose to Chameleon at this point.
  9. I don't know if you played in LG74 or not, but that was a similar distro. They had two Elim Seekers, and the Village had 9 Vanillagers. The Village also had 4 Smokers. And even that cover wasn't enough, because the Elim team played in a way that half the player list claimed to them and the Seekers could fill in the gaps. And, depends on the power role. I don't know the last time I was in (or a big part of) a V!Seeker game, but part of the idea of a Seeker is you've got people you've scanned to claim to instead. Coinshots out themselves sometimes, but Lurchers and Mistborn can easily just stay completely silent while doing their thing in the background. (Side note - I don't count Mistborn as being every type of role simultaneously. Across the entire game, maybe, and they can leverage what they have. But counting on them to be a Smoker when you need a Smoker, a Lurcher when you need a Lurcher, a Thug when you need a Thug, that tends not to go well.) (So the math in an E!Penguin world is still 2 Smokers vs 1 E!Seeker, with 1 Smoker that was probably an inactivity threat from the start.) Yeah, I can tell. One V!Thug makes sense. It would mean the Village had at least one of every non-Seeker role. But Chameleon doesn't make sense. Nothing about this game has made sense. And Chameleon's lied about their role before. And I know the last Elim has to be a Smoker. And also - if I die to E!Beagle here, you still have to deal with a coinflip D9. If I swing things around an misexe V!Chameleon, E!Beagle still has to deal with a coinflip D9. If I die to E!Chameleon here, we lose. And another thing. ... really. Okay, a laundry list of things then. Chameleon, you posted earlier that it's a Coinflip for you. It's not. Next cycle it's a Coinflip for you. This cycle, you can make a choice, and if you're right you avoid the Coinflip entirely. Unless you make it a Coinflip. Hi. I'm frustrated. I'm trying not to be, because I would rather fight this logically rather than emotionally because I've never seen that end well for anyone. But if you can't tell my last two posts were frustrated then I don't know what to think. If you can read through 2000+ posts on MU, you can read through the twenty posts here. Any thoughts on the distro discussion?
  10. Hmm. Albatross did also mention that they had to leave before rollover happened. That's most likely true, thus they knew they might not be back in time to reverse a decision made when Ostrich revealed the ruse (and indeed, if their time frame was correct, they only had ~30 minutes of thread time after Ostrich officially walked it back). It's a reason not to rock the boat, or not to stick out like a sore thumb. No one else voted anyone but Ostrich except, funnily enough, Beagle and Chameleon - you two voted yourselves. A few other things: Albatross knew they had an active teammate, whoever it happens to be among the three of us. Directing an exe away indirectly can be better than directly. Albatross could have been more focused on getting a good read from Ostrich - because they did, or managed to tie with Scorpion's read / their place in Ostrich's PoE. Scorpion had a good deal more trust than Albatross did. That let them get away from more intense scrutiny for not following the lead. Scorpion also didn't cast a new vote while Ostrich was claimed as an Elim. He just didn't move the vote that was already cast. Maybe that's only a symbolic difference, rather than a functional one, but it is a difference. Why? That... that doesn't fix anything. That would just make the Elim team stronger and the Village still is Smoker-lacking. (Thing I didn't really have space for earlier - I'm assuming that the GMs weren't expecting, what, 6 inactivity deaths. But I'm also assuming they had some idea for some of them. Because Weasel was one of the two Confirmed Village Smokers, and they posted once. Not exactly a good balance for allegedly half of the Village's Seeker defense.) ... not really a lot of options for that this game, though ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Do you have thoughts on Chameleon? Because I'm not super liking how they've pretty much coasted this turn so far.
  11. Why should they have expected it to dissipate? Because it didn't. Because the Village tends to look down on Elim claims that are then reversed unless there's very specific circumstances. AG8 Meerkat had to set it up in advance and with Tineye code receipts to prove he'd sent the message. And why would Albatross ever choose to "self-pres" on me when there's a claimed elim in the lead for the exe. Sure, they knew it wasn't real - but only because they were an Elim themselves. Village-facing-Albatross can't act on that information, because doing that is what made the AG8 Meerkat play effective. It would make more sense to either casually hop on Ostrich when they'd seen, or just do what Albatross did for the entire game and not get involved in the exe at all, which is what they did. Yeah, no. I didn't make The Ballista Protocol PM at EoD. You can see if you hover over when the conversation was started - 2:34 PM, three and a half hours before rollover. I had one vote on me at that time. I didn't get the second one until 4:49 - and that was from Falcon. Chameleon was also voting me at one point. If that was my attempt to be softing a power role in attempt to get out of an exe, it really didn't do it very well. What was I trying to do with that PM? I don't know. RP PMs are something I hadn't tried before, was curious to see how'd it go. I also made it a group of players I trusted at that time, which I'd said earlier in D1, and was hoping that that could maybe lead to something late game. But then the PM didn't go anywhere before I had to start defending myself against the exe (or more the impending Coinshot after) and then Falcon died, and I'd already had a PM with both you and Chameleon. (And in both PMs I claimed not-power-role, directly. I wasn't softing anything. Maybe if you looked in one of my RP posts / how I focused on Seekers you could tell, idk.) Maybe another reason, but it's one more personal for just how RP goes. But I've been trying to avoid personal arguments. Even if I maybe have some good ones. Speaking of which. Maybe I should have dealt with the Smoker argument earlier. I don't know. I'm not even sure if I'll have the time/energy to fight this or if I can just trust in Cham and Chance. But... you know, no. I'm not sure if you're reviewing things, or if E!Beagle is desperately going through the list of things I've done to find anything that could be made into evidence, or if E!Cham is going to coast on this Thunderdome to a victory, or if everyone's just as tired as I am and wants this to go. But. We're going for Occam's Razor Smoker now? After killing Swan for not claiming a powerful role they never used for harm, just to figure out what was even happening? After just turning the Smoker question away in favor of going for Kangaroo? When the offending vote happened six turns ago? We want the simplest explanation now? Fine, maybe the simplest explanation would have been E!Meerkat. Well, it wasn't. So now we deal with it. Or I guess I do. Because it's not a question of the simplest for distro's sake. Two explanations: I'm lying, Beagle's lying. Or maybe Chameleon's lying. Elims lie, they do it all the time. It's just a question of whether I decided to lie about my Smoking target for whatever possible advantage that could give me, or one of you two decided to lie about their role for whatever advantage that could give them. And quite a few roles are easy to fake. Elims can pretend to be Lurchers pretty easy. Smokers and Thugs are practically impossible to prove outside of conditions that would get the Elim killed anyway. And Vanilla is easiest to claim of all. So somebody's lying. And I'm really hoping it's one of us, and wasn't Swan. (Swan, if you did lie and send us down a wild Smoker chase, my ghost is going to haunt your ghost.) So does it need less lies for me to be the Smoker more than Beagle? No, not really. But there's one more thing. That's the player list. It's also 90% of the Distro list. So we can extrapolate a little bit. If we're going with the Meerkat Smoker argument. We know there's at least one Elim Smoker. If it's me, it's me, if it's Beagle, it's Beagle, if it's Chameleon, it's Chameleon. But if Beagle, or Chameleon, are the Elim Smoker that protected Meerkat's vote, then I'm still a Village Smoker. If I'm the Elim Smoker, then I'm not Village. Obviously. But it leaves Beagle as Vanilla and Chameleon as Thug. So, @Oxblood Beagle, @Pearl Chameleon, I'm really curious to hear your guys' thoughts about an E!Seeker, E!Rioter, and finally E!Smoker!Chartreuse-Penguin role distribution that has a total of two Village Smokers.
  12. If I'm Village and got NK'd, the point of leaving that post was to not have E!Scorp or E!Cham run off on my confirmed-good analysis to exe V!You. Because that seems to have been a pattern of how things have gone, and this cycle is one where people absolutely need to think. And the neat thing is, it did avoid NK influence. Because I'm a Villager, and both of you two weren't even online. That was kinda the point of doing it 5 minutes before rollover. But also, because it doesn't matter, something I'm getting into below. Sure, e!Cham could have killed me and let v!Beagle tunnel on Scorp... or they could have killed Scorp and let Beagle tunnel on me. You know. What's currently happening. Because nothing about reads and choices from N7 matters. For the Elim, presumably nothing can change things with the exe patterns that are following, because no way is any Villager hiding a Coinshot or Soother. For the Village, the NK cuts each Villager's PoE by a third. It's a binary choice now. And for Cham, the choice is pretty much a non-choice, because V!Thug!Cham gets to Coinflip on D9 with whoever's left. Going to make another post on that math at some point, because it's around but a bit annoying to wrangle. This doesn't sound "70%" convinced, not gonna lie. When did I get pushed? D1, where the elims clearly had no interest in the EoD? D3, where Chameleon lied about being a Mistborn and then tunneled on me for not believing it? D4, where that same Chameleon gambit was just continuing? D4 again, where Ostrich lied about being an Elim and then tunneled on me for... I barely even know? Yeah, it's a lot of trains. None of them were for good reasons. Quantity doesn't translate to quality. As for Albatross - they voted on Lion, at this point, here: Albatross wasn't the leading wagon. Albatross wasn't even close. They had one vote, from you, a post or two earlier. I was in the lead by 4-ish, then the actual runner-up was Iguana with 3. (Plus, one of the main reasons I was getting pushed was all the vote manip on me D1. Hint: there wasn't any vote manip on me D1.) They came back a few times, but never changed their vote - even when I was in the lead versus Ostrich, and they pointedly posted a vote count without moving their vote. Didn't take the opportunity to save me, didn't take the opportunity to bus me. Voting Ostrich could have even helped them out, but at that point Ostrich was still claimed Elim and an exe on Alb was highly unlikely. Because I'm a Villager, and so Albatross didn't actually have a stake in which Villager got exed. Yeah. Actively claimed Smoker. Early claimed Smoker. Has-no-reason-to-lie-about-Smoking Smoker. What would that have gotten me, exeing Meerkat before Kangaroo? If the Village decided to go all Occam's Razor from the start, lying just sticks my neck out farther. I'm also noticing a lot of... decisiveness, here. Still 70%?
  13. I did. Hence that last post. I just didn't want to say so, because of the whole battle-lines-influencing-NK-thing. But I was looking at things. Notably - Scorpion managed to rather skillfully (or luckily, I suppose) avoid interacting nearly at all with Vulture or Albatross on D1, despite posting in close proximity to them. You and Cham both did. Not entirely sure what the meta is with that, but considering how distant the Elim team has been / has been forced to be, it was giving me some E!Scorp points. But that's out the window, obviously.
  14. I’m alive. Fantastic. Really thought PMs were going to open and the real fun to begin, but no, now it’s just the game. Penguin, Beagle, or Chameleon?
  15. Aaaaaand now I’m leaning towards an E!Scorp world. Trying to get what I can out of the mess of D1. o7
  16. Even if little productive thinking is possible at this point, that's not really the ideal way to do this. For one thing, V!Thug!Cham throws everything for a loop. Any Elim can't escape the coinflip at this point, except E!Cham, and we can theoretically answer that if we guarantee a coinflip D9. For another thing, having battle lines and expected kills is a big way to mess with the exe. For example, if it's looking like a big D8 Thunderdome between Beagle and Scorpion, then the "best" kill for either of you, or for Cham, would be to NK me. But even without a Lurcher, there's a bit of a question there, where the only scenario where NK Penguin isn't ideal would be the E!Penguin scenario. Thus, could be decently possible for E!Beagle/Scorpion to kill V!Scorpion/Beagle and push a Penguin exe to Cham on D8 instead. Or something. Bah. I need time to think and I don't have time nor do I have think.
  17. Not sure how much time I have tomorrow, but I also think I may have an expiration date, so I'll try and make this quick. If we don't want to hit Chameleon - which I'm still trying to figure out - I think it's Beagle. Not sure how relevant D4 is, especially around the end. Kind of a mess for everyone. But there's a few things from earlier that give me a little pause. One of them is Picking Up The Pieces, a PM created on D3 by Onyx Flamingo containing them, Oxblood Beagle, and myself. Flamingo claimed Tineye, I claimed having a role (later as Smoker), and Beagle mentioned something peculiar - that they claimed their role to Mouse and might claim it later. They didn't, not in that PM - then claimed Vanilla only when there was the effort to get everyone to claim. That combines with one of Mouse's posts N2: Specifically "at least" 3 Smokers. Could be a few reasons for that, but between my claim to Mouse, Swan's C1 claim, and Hyena's D2 flip, that's only 3 known there. Something tells me that Weasel didn't claim to Mouse. Maybe Beagle did. Mouse seemed a bit more free with Chameleon's gambit, but I don't think they told anyone I was a Smoker, from what was seen - safer claim than Thug, at least. There's also the fact Flamingo was the N3 NK, which shut off PMs. Don't think that claim had circulated around either. I don't know. I don't trust. And probably need sleep. But I think between Scorp and Beagle, it's Beagle.
  18. V!Thug!Cham forces the elim into a coinflip, yeah. Unless they really are a Mistborn and can roll Soother or something. But that relies on us believing V!Thug!Cham, something I noted earlier. Because technically, another option is to exe Cham next turn. They live, they're clear (at least for the next 24 hours). They die, they were an Elim. Solves the slot. But that just guarantees a coinflip-or-death-by-vote-manip if Cham is telling the truth. Not ideal. Think the math is: (E!Cham, Cham exe): 3v1 --> 2v1 --> GG Village (V!Cham, Cham exe): 3v1 --> 2v1 --> 2v1 --> 1v1 Coinflip (E!Cham, NonCham exe): 3v1 --> 2v1 --> GG Elims (V!Cham, NonCham exe): 3v1 --> 2v1 --> 1v1 (Thug Tank) --> 1v1 Coinflip OR 3v1 --> 2v1 --> GG Village Assuming that there's no surprise Mistborn or any other surprises. A lot of weight riding on that. And, obviously, a lot of weight riding on that OR in the last category. Edit: also assuming the Elims don't try and NK Cham this turn and fail. But, not too much reason to do that. Also also assuming that it's not a 2v2 right now, but if my math is correct we can do precisely nothing about that. That's not what I meant. A good amount of Village credit was given to you for your reaction to Ostrich claiming last elim, expressing sympathy for the situation. But in an admittedly rushed (and glitchy, thanks internet) reread, I had the thought that you could be in Ostrich's claimed position, with an Elim team largely falling apart from inactivity or D3 Vulture/Alb suspicions. Because at this point, the last Elim has been in that position. So, I don't know. Was hoping it was nothing, but now I can't be sure. I was also trying to see if me slightly-shading Beagle would bring back Kangaroo to change their vote. They did say they suspected Beagle over Scorpion, but had left their vote on Scorpion, which I felt... well, there wasn't time to do anything about what I felt. But it was a bit of a bait, and Kangaroo took it, and the result was all the same.
  19. Turns out college takes up a lot of your time. I think this is me here too little, too late no matter what I do. But I think we're right here. The only cycles where an Elim was ever in danger without being a blowout exe were D3 and D4, and even D4 there was relatively little resistance to an Alb exe from any living players until Ostrich claimed E!Mistborn. Any other turn is mostly going to be nothing. ... although. Looking through D4, Beagle did have a unique take on Ostrich's claim, and now I'm wondering if perhaps Beagle was saying this as the player legitimately in E!Mistborn!Ostrich's position. Maybe. Maaaaybe. But it's not enough for me to move, I don't think. Not with some of the other details.
  20. Because I can't resist how our Newest Dingo is playing this - I feel like for E!me, Lion would still make sense as a hit. Lion's the one person we knew wasn't our missing Smoker, so it doesn't clamp down on that so much. Being a Smoker vs, say, Lurcher does change the calculus on how scary endgame vote manip is, but it's still scary, even if only from a meta and not practical perspective - but even more scary if the real Elim is Mistborn instead. But I do agree, NKA is less of a functional thing here. Now it's just going down a list and seeing where things deviate. Although I/we should go back, might be able to get something from earlier. I do think at least one of the active Elims was a crafty type. Hitting active-but-not-Mouse first, letting Mouse draw a Lurch, then killing Mouse the next cycle... well, I've seen plenty of teams not do that. But, my personal (not identity, necessarily, just playstyle/tone) read of Vulture or Albatross could fit that too. (Could also fit Beagle, Kangaroo, or maybe Scorpion. Chameleon, not so much. Me, also not so much, but... that strategy has had a mixed success rate ) I was smoking Ostrich, then. I mostly trusted them by N2. Mostly the PM was because I knew one vote manip had gone through a partially-smoked exe, and I was worried it could be a concerted effort. Coppercloud's never been on Meerkat at all. It has been on you, but per the rules you can still Riot a vote onto a Smoked player, and I'm pretty sure it wasn't on you that cycle anyway.
  21. Yeah, that's what I was expecting. Rather annoying, though. If everyone's telling the truth, that's the last power role. Me a Smoker, Chameleon a Thug, and then 3 Vanillas. But, thanks to Smoked Salmon, clearly not everyone is telling the truth. Whether that's me the claimed Smoker, or one of you four who hid their Smoker/Mistborn role, or something else. (I'm also assuming the V!Swan and V!Lion weren't lying about their actions... hopefully that isn't an issue.) That's the trick, then. Scorpion and Beagle - these two have been Village read for most of the game, aside from some smaller pushes. They're also going to be real annoying to tell apart without a re-read. Chameleon - technically, we could solve that now. E!Chameleon is presumably a Smoker or Mistborn instead of a Thug, so they'd die to the exe as normal, while V!Chameleon would stay alive. Issue with that is, V!Chameleon is pretty useful as a Thug and an issue that a solo elim will have to deal with eventually unless they want to try and win an extra coin toss (speaking from experience of Dingo vs Penguin back in AG8). But that becomes nothing if we lose our nerve and exe Chameleon early - and Cham would probably be NKed right after. Sage Kangaroo - first in the PoE. Similar situation as Albatross, and just difficult to read at the point of the game where that's suspicious on its own. I do want to go back to look at things, but for now, I'm fine voting here. Chartreuse Penguin - and then there's me. The claimed Smoker when there's a unknown Smoker and the simplest explanation is that I just lied about who I was Smoking. This is gonna be fun. I don't know why E!me would lie about it only to have V!Meerkat cut in line at the PoE in front of Kangaroo, but I also don't know why an E!Smoker would be on Meerkat in the first place. Although, on the plus side, I don't think I'm getting NKed by the real Elim Smoker anytime soon.
  22. I have concerns. But not about Chameleon, specifically. I think. Just at this point, don't think I can trust anyone.
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