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Oxblood Beagle

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Everything posted by Oxblood Beagle

  1. Woah how do you know that, NewPlayer123 ō_ō
  2. I only proposed a draw on D4 for village cred, I didn't actually mean it @ Scorp too. A win is a win, you should own it!! Technicalities are in place for a reason, and I did 'choose' the coinflip, in a way. I had some pretty insanely wrong ID reads during early game, especially for Cham lol. Really curious about Vulture.
  3. I have some post-game thoughts but I can’t really share them before identities are revealed (because I’m so incredibly well-hidden) - so make haste with those votes yall
  4. Oh well, the new tyian curse lives on I’ll pretend I didn’t know how this was going to end 24 hours ago when devo asked me how I wanted beagle to die ‘in case’ of a loss LOL GG! Great write ups btw @Devotary of Spontaneity (cool Avil Ejir reference)
  5. Yeah I do think I was extremely findable there, and the goal in F3 was to flood the thread with whatever arguments I could come up with to keep Penguin on the defensive & busy responding to those over actually casing me or backreading too much
  6. Yeah this was tiring. Losing two of our power roles to the filter before we got the chance to use them + being alive for so long meant I had 0 WiM especially at the end there. I hadn’t backread anything and was coming up with random arguments based off memory alone I was never going for a no-kill. My odds surely would’ve been lower than 50% if I went for that and also I’m all for ending these games quicker if I can
  7. As I said in the elim doc I felt I was extremely outed based on the VCs since I voted on the wrong trains every time it mattered but surprisingly most people didn’t really notice idk lol. And we exe’d the few who dared notice Smoking Meerkat was big for us
  8. Good Imagine being a Lurcher and dying to the coinshot you were protecting
  9. ? Mistborn is still a technical possibility, you can’t know the last elim is a smoker unless you are the last elim
  10. Don't remind me lol, I thought the game was functionally over or else I'd never self vote as either alignment. Because I v read you all game and will always put my personal read over Occam's Razor. Unless it's, you know, where we are now. Where I'm forced to re-evaluate after being wrong so many times. I guess I don't really see that as a balance problem when we had 2 village smokers and 1 village MB? An e!Seeker isn't really too much of a threat when there are 9 vanillagers, and realistically speaking village power roles usually tend to out themselves early anyway so I'm not sure how powerful an e!seeker is to begin with. Their posts this turn in isolation haven't been particularly inspiring but that doesn't really change the rest of their game, I don't think. I doubt they faked their reaction to Ostrich on D4 (D5?). That was/is the major selling point on v!Cham for me. What do you think their gameplan has been, if theyre elim Edit: Penguin I’ll just be real here, you can probably tell that I’ve made up my mind and things like this reinforce my view - because why are you questioning Chameleon here? You just analyzed the distro implications in depth and I’m surprised you aren’t just taking Cham’s thug claim at face value here given we had a coinshot, and only a single village protection role has flipped. 1.5 if you count the MB. A v!thug makes sense and is probably crucial to a coinshot distro, especially when the elim team had one too. Even I can see the sense in that and like I keep saying I’m not a distro speculation person. So why haven’t you clocked this yet? When you specifically spent time looking over the distro and the flipped roles? Does the village get a coinshot with just one Lurcher for protection against both that and the NK? Highly unlikely. I’m not a protection role. You aren’t a protection role. Cham’s a claimed protection role since D1 (that’s when they claimed to Mouse I think).
  11. If I were e!Alb I would've 100% expected that wagon to go away after the reversal. It's incredible that it didn't, and like I said I still dont really know why. We had a coinshot who could've taken care of something like that. Well yeah, they wouldn't explicitly call the vote 'self pres' because that would mean TMI'ing Ostrich v. Scorp is a flipped villager - his reaction to Ostrich's gambit was unique and Alb could've easily played along with a perspective like that going 'I don't believe this is real either, so I'm going to vote X instead' because they are seeing a villager reacting exactly like that to Ostrich's claim & not receiving flak for it, and they could've easily used the existing momentum of Scorp's view if they wanted. E!Alb leaving the thread with 3-2-2 wagons knowing that Ostrich is faking concession makes absolutely no sense. What's weirder is that Alb didn't comment on Ostrich's thing at all. Why? I have no idea. I want to say it's because he was hoping for Ostrich to retract the claim while he was on so he wouldn't have to deal with it at all but who knows. All I can gather from this is that Alb could've easily justified a vote on your CW using Scorp's logic or something similar, but he didn't. Yes I don't know. Distro analysis has never been my strong suit. Maybe you're a Mistborn? Oh I wish, I do not have the stamina for that. I'd rather ask my teammates to bus me so they're in a good spot and I'm out of the game asap lol. Suuure I do think you played really well, fwiw.
  12. No, my point is, when Albatross left for the cycle this was the VC: Now obviously Ostrich is in the lead but Alb and you were just one vote away. Except, e!Alb should know that Ostrich is not in fact an elim conceding but a villager doing whatever test, and he’d have expected the Ostrich train to dissipate once Ostrich came clean. And when the lead train dissipates, the counter wagons take lead. I’m not sure why people kept their votes on Ostrich there after the reveal because it would’ve been more productive to leave him alive for Zebra to shoot later if he didn’t get us an elim exe’d that day (e!Ostrich pretending to be a villager is also good to keep around for another turn to better gauge his interests and find partners, but I digress). So why does Alb not self pres on to the Penguin train? It doesn’t matter at what point they cast their Lion vote, but the fact that they left it there. Alb for sure would have expected the counter wagons to take the lead sooner or later and he was one of them, only one vote behind Ostrich, at the point where he left the thread. Edit: Oh, and this is something that had totally slipped my mind until now but: @Pearl Chameleon remember back on D1 when Penguin was receiving some votes, they created a group PM at EoD with you, me, and Falcon? And the PM that they sent really looked like they were softing a power role in RP form? That was why I entered N1 defending Penguin. Because I thought they were claiming coinshot or Mistborn or something. But clearly not, because all that group PM was meant to do was make us think this was the case to have us help Penguin out of the D1 exe. Because it certainly worked on me except I didn’t see the PM until the Night turn lol. That’s why I asked falcon why he left his vote on Penguin d1 despite what I perceived to be obvious softing of an important role. Penguin did claim smoker a couple of turns later but I never really thought back to this group PM until now, because in hindsight it really looks like an agenda’d attempt at making us vote to save Penguin during the eod.
  13. Edit: And we should’ve realised this sooner but when one player is consistently coming up as a wagon throughout the game, it’s usually just an elim. Penguin was a major wagon D1, a major wagon D4, and cropped up during multiple other points in the game. This should’ve been a red flag but these things often don’t make themselves obvious until this late in the game unfortunately. Day 4 is very telling specifically because before Ostrich’s gambit, Albatross was the leading wagon and Penguin was the second most popular contender for the vote there, but Albatross never touched the Penguin wagon and instead tried to vote Lion. Why wouldn’t Alb self pres on v!Penguin? There’s no reason for them to not do that. In a gamestate with only 2 elims left, not self pressing is nuts. The only reason you wouldn’t do that is if the self pres option is your partner. Alb wasn’t on during the exact eod time as announced, so them not voting Penguin is big. Edit: And of course there’s the fact that Penguin is literally a claimed Smoker, & responsible for Meerkat. Occam’s Razor.
  14. If you didn’t want to say so, why make that last post? If you were village and got NK’d, what was the point of leaving that post without an attached explanation? Because that defeats the purpose of avoiding NK influence or whatever and right now it looks like intentionally planted IKYK to me. I’ve been thinking about both e!Cham and e!Penguin worlds, and e!Cham had a sure fire path to victory if they had killed Penguin overnight, because I was clearly tunnelling Scorp and obviously would have voted him today while Penguin was the only one considering “testing” Cham’s thug claim yesterday. Neither Scorp or myself ever agreed to that, so killing Penguin is 100% always what Cham does. It doesn’t matter if Scorp wasn’t sure on v!Cham because I had clearly been repping that read and in 2v1 you need 2 votes to kill. NKing elsewhere isn’t worth throwing away the assured win, I don’t think. @Pearl Chameleon I still want to know what you’re thinking. I guess thinking about it now it makes sense that I haven’t been kept alive all these days - because I’ve been hard defending Penguin all game. My bad. More to come later as I’m gathering my thoughts going over the game again, but I’m around 70% convinced right now.
  15. Okay. @Pearl Chameleon Now's the time to reveal whatever it is you haven't revealed. Where's your head at now, given Scorp's flip? @Chartreuse Penguin Why didn't you consider Scorp at all yesterday?
  16. How is that peculiar? He said at least 3 smokers because the entire playerlist hadn't claimed to him. I claimed my true role to Mouse - vanilla. I didn't end up claiming in that group because I wasn't sure how I independently felt about Flamingo beyond trusting Mouse's read. Edit: If you know Mouse at all, you'd know that he wouldn't die with the knowledge of a claimed Smoker of all things. He'd have told multiple people that he trusted as contingency. Edit: Grr Penguin you're ruining my chances of eating the NK I don't want to have to be here for the part that matters. Edit: I also just re-checked all my PMs with Mouse and no, he hadn't told me you had claimed Smoker but I don't know why that matters? Edit: Okay. It has to be Scorp for PoE reasons. I trust Cham. I reread (skimmed, really) Penguin’s content and I’m not wavering on my v read there either. Lion had a good argument about Scorp’s vote fluidity sticking out on D3 compared to all other Days where their vote was more static. It’s more than that though: their Vulture vote was cast late, they were already at 5 votes: This was basically at EoD too so the it does look like an elim having decided to cut their losses and just bus last minute. And this also explains why Alb was frozen and didn’t end up voting, because the two were likely caught up discussing in the elim doc about whether to commit to the bus or not. Also, shortly before this vote: Scorp signals here that they’d be fine flashwagoning Kangaroo while not wanting to be the one to initiate it. In the same post they question Lion switching their vote to Vulture in a way that’s obviously meant to call negative attention to Lion’s vote for wonky progression I’m guessing. And it’s worsened by the fact that Scorp had been repping a v read on Lion that entire time. Their progression on everything surrounding Vulture is really inconsistent & hedgy and you can really see their constructed worldview failing to stay true to itself under this high-pressure EoD. And then there’s this from D4: Elephant takes precedence over Alb in their ordered PoE for ?? reasons, despite the fact that Alb had put out actively elimmy content whereas Elephant had been supremely inactive. I don’t recall Scorp ever sharing what made Alb more village over Elephant at any point in the game, so this is really odd in hindsight. Not just that, but in the same post they don’t vote either of these two but instead vote Iguana? For science? It doesn’t add up. That’s what I’ll leave the thread with. It’s gotta be Scorp, neither Penguin nor Cham make sense here. Another argument in Penguin’s favor that i ironically realized while defending myself from Penguin’s sus is that Penguin would not have NK’d Flamingo at the stage where Flamingo died. Flamingo created a trust PM between themself, me, and Penguin (as Penguin mentioned) and I don’t see them immediately NKing Flamingo when they were more trusting of Penguin than any of the remaining players. It doesn’t make sense when e!Penguin can instead utilise the fact that Flamingo was evidently a bit detached from the thread and could have been manipulated easily as a result. They would’ve kept them around at least a bit longer.
  17. Oh I misunderstood your post, I guess that makes sense. I'm neither of those things though, I'm a regular villager. (<-- Real) Cham, can you talk more about what you meant by this? Both the part about you dying and how kangaroo would've been implicated by it I...don't think I want us to gamble on exeing Cham tomorrow. I'm going to be doing the due diligence with regards to everybody tonight, but the chances of e!Cham are still very low in my opinion.
  18. Wait, if Cham is v and a thug then we literally can’t lose (?) 3v1 —> 2v1 —> can’t kill a thug. Will it be 1v1? A coin flip? Unless there are two left in which case the game will end after tonight
  19. Penguin, what did you mean by my reaction to Ostrich being indicative of Elim mistborn? In your post from last turn
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