Sapphire Elephant

? Iguana is giving me general Bad Vibes(TM). I originally gave them village points for contribution and lack of rules knowledge, but their attempts to foster engagement feel disingenuous and performative. I thought there was more than that, but my notes aren't helping :< Scorpion is subtly defensive through much of D1, which I don't like. They're the 3rd person to jump on the Dragonfly train, upgrading it to something more serious, which is suspicious, especially given the scattered vote distribution D1. Their D1 vote on Hyena is also weird -- voting someone for voting on a gut read is "in poor form" itself, I think. (I might take my vote off them later, but I don't like the Hyena train, so.) Meerkat was just giving me bad gut vibes. Not much more to be said on that.

Well, I read D1, which drained my energy faster than a Hemalurgic spike. Here's my reads based on that. Will read more later Everyone else is null, for now.

Welp. Got busy and forgot about this. I’ll do a full read of the thread & post some reads later, when I’m at a computer.

Can you elaborate, my good scorpion? Ah, but what if you don’t have anything AI to vote on? Then, it would be hard not to not do anything D1, wouldn’t it? Those double negatives kinda broke my brain, didn’t they, did they not? Buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo.

Glad you decided to show up, Vulture. [Also: #when you’re so forgetful you forget to use your “forgetful” cosmetic role. Look, I’m known for ditching my cr after the first cycle due to lack of interest, but that was a new low ] I don’t think it’s in poor form, Scorpion — the meme format is kinda frustrating to read. It’s not necessarily AI, but it’s D1 and we have precious little else to go on. Anyway, what was I talking about again? Oh, right! The multiple definitions of the word “fine.” I mentioned that it can mean “good” and “okay,” but depending on the context, it can mean “bad” too! This is more of a cultural thing (where I live, anyway (maybe it’s different for you)) — like, if someone says “how’s it going?” and you say “fine” then they’ll hear that you’re having a bad day. Weird, isn’t it? This happens because “good” is the default answer — if you aren’t actively not good, then your default response to “how are you” is “good, how are you?” You don’t even think about it. So, if you want to signal you’re doing worse than average, you say “fine.” Language is fascinating.

Maybe now is not the best time to be listening to voices in your head, my friend.

Hello fellow mortals! How’s it going on this fine day? “Fine” is a weird word, isn’t it? It can mean good or refined or just okay, depending on the context. And then you have the music definition — used to mark the end of a piece when you’re in a repeated section — which is totally etymologically different! Fascinating stuff, truly. Anyway, Vulture looks punchable. Did you know vultures pee on their legs to cool off? Wild.

I've got to remember me that one for the next time there's a KKC game...

They tried (Swan and Weasel), but the village didn't bite. You tried with Dragonfly but similarly, village didn't bite.You weren't a candidate put forward by the Spiked - Toucan and Hyena put you up for execution. It's certainly not the most common occurrence, but far from impossible, and the Spiked definitely tried to get something else going, not moving to you until over half way through the cycle. Day 4-6 are basically useless for analysis. Night actions gave us good Spiked candidates that essentially immediately got unanimous support for execution. No way of identifying bussing elims in that context. What you're not seeing is the 15 pages of PMs with Meerkat through the early cycles, or the individual and group PMs with Rhino, Hyena, and Swan through those cycles.

Can you elaborate on that? We can all agree there's good reason to restrict the pool to Chameleon, Falcon, and myself, but Swan's post is pretty much "Can't be bothered critically re-examining Falcon or Chameleon, so it must be the absurd situation of Elephant deepwolfing, which I'm not going to bother responding to". Which isn't particularly persuasive... Though anyway, with Swan having been online 3-4 times since my earlier posts, seems unlikely they're responding again this cycle for some reason, and given the voting/posting patterns of Falcon and Ostrich, I don't see those votes moving. Chameleon hasn't voted, but in a situation where Toucan chooses to vote with me, and Penguin was convinced to change to voting to Chameleon, Chameleon votes on me at that point for survival, so I think that pretty much means I'm dead. In which case, final words in case I don't get back on before end of cycle. First off, please reconsider my posts today and factor that in when choosing targets. Spiked Falcon doesn't much sense to me, but Chameleon does. After Swan, they've posted the most out of the surviving players, yet I don't recall them ever doing anything of note. Plus, as I point out, E!Cham works pretty well with C3 votes Spiked votes. In my opinion, they are the better choice to kill over Falcon. So I would vote for Cham to be coinshot, or failing that, the D9 execution. The other thing I wanted to say is that honestly at this point, I'm starting to get concerned about Swan. It's pretty wild to jump immediately to a deepwolf claim when there's better options, but it's less wild to jump to that if Swan has been deep wolfing this whole time, and was aiming to get in first to set the tone of the final cycles. I do think it's more likely that they're just weirdly tunnelling at this point, because I don't see it making all that much sense. But it seems just a likely to me as the situation Swan proposes, and because they've been weird this cycle, I'm not longer willing to entirely accept that they're clean with certainty. Though realistically village has likely lost if there are 2 Spiked remaining at this point, unless N8 is particularly favourable to the village, so there's not a lot of sense to actually dwelling on that.

I believe at that point Meerkat had connected me with the two Tineye and the Mistborn, but didn't have any knowledge of Swan as PoI just yet. I knew that the Penguin was likely to scan Croc N3, but I don't believe I heard about the N4 Lurch. EDIT: In case it helps, here's the break down of votes across Days 1-3. Obviously the colouring can now be updated to have Dragonfly, Mouse, Weasel, Swan, Penguin, Ostrich, and Toucan in green. Day 1, Day 2 Day 3 @Coral Swan I would like a response to why the voting patterns of C3 point to "Chameleon was hung out to dry by the Spiked", when E!Cham makes a fair amount of sense in the context of Spiked actions during that cycle - they work together to push Lion to the front, instead of Lurcher Flamingo, where some of them end on Cham as that was the only other relevant voting target, as established by early village votes. I just don't see how me deepwolfing so effectively as to being really slow to bother trying to move on any village target of note while keeping the second Mistborn and the Coinshot alive is so much more likely than E!Cham.

I can confirm that Penguin is Mistborn who coinshot Mouse, and Swan is a coinshot who hit Dragonfly. Regarding the vote analysis, it flagged for me that Croc was worthy of suspicion. Now obviously they were scanned before we had to actually deal with that independently. But otherwise being disengaged? Everyone else has been for the last few cycles - we had to work our way through 3 clear cut executions which didn't produce any analysis worth considering. Do you really think that I, the sort of player that when given the information plots out every potential outcome based on different actions (see the diagram my tenure as Azure Mouse in AG4, wouldn't have taken the shot on the coinshot when knowing as soon as we could? Sure, maybe not do it immediately to not out myself in that situation, but say N6 when the only reason to not attack you again was either thinking there was a lurcher protecting you or that you had been a thug and not worth hitting again, no reason why E!Me doesn't take the shot on you knowing you're the Coinshot and that you were unprotected. So let's find this last Spiked. Remaining players: Penguin - Village Mistborn Swan - Village Coinshot Ostrich - Village Inactive Toucan - Village Inactive Falcon - ??? Chameleon - ??? Elephant - Claimed Village Vanilla If there's only one spiked, the game is won. Worst case scenario, you execute me, coinshot one of Falcon/Chameleon, they flip Village, while Swan gets Night killed. The remaining players execute whoever of Falcon/Chameleon wasn't coinshot, and game ends. Although I suppose if one of Falcon/Cham is a village thug, then they don't die. That brings us to 5v1, misexecution would be 4v1, night kill is 3v1, but there's still a 2v1. Still, more likely that we get a village win in that scenario. As for today though, I'm going to once again place my vote on Chameleon. Reviewing the votes from C1-C3 Day 1, no elims were under any particular threat, so they could do whatever really. Hard to draw any information from votes there - I voted Scorpion, Chameleon voted Hyena, Falcon voted Dragonfly. Day 2, Chameleon breaks the 4 way tie between Weasel, Heron, Rhino, and Flamingo by voting on Heron with Scorpion, and eventually Heron becomes the runaway train. Falcon does become the counterwagon, which is pure village, but what stopped it from being a tie was Dragonfly. I voted Scorpion, Falcon didn't vote. Day 3, at 3 hours to go, this was the vote tally: At 3 hours, Chameleon moves to Lion from Dragonfly. This ties Flamingo and Lion. Rather than consolidate a Flamingo lead, which would be the most defensive move, they tie Lion up - putting the Spiked Thug up for execution against the Lurcher, who at least survives the execution, unlike Flamingo. This is followed by Croc in the next half hour swapping to Chameleon from Flamingo, making it Spiked Thug vs Spiked Soother(?) - sure it would be better to vote Dragonfly or something, but Croc was chatting heavily with Meerkat so likely had to play a dangerous game to sell the con. Yes, it'd make Cycle 3 being an debate between 3 Spiked, but while Croc and Flamingo tried to start an execution on Swan, Meerkat, Swan, Rhino went in on Spiked, Toucan brought in Chameleon, and no other villagers were biting on any of the Spiked suggested votes on villagers by halfway through the cycle. By that point the votes are fairly set, so it's not unreasonable to imagine the decision to work instead on damage control, and push Lion to be the main target over Flamingo or Chamelon. I stayed on Chameleon, Falcon stayed on Flamingo. To me, Falcon staying on Flamingo to the end feels villagery, while as I say, Cham pushing Lion to be the execution over Flamingo feels like a Spiked making the most of a bad situation. So again, so it's clear given all my highlighting, my vote is on Chameleon.

Well, if you want a vote, let's go with Albatross. Looking at C1-3 votes has me feeling better about most of my previously standing sus's. Albatross and Ostrich I remember the least about, so that's likely where I'll look tomorrow. They're rank 5/11 for posts out of living players, but tied 8/11 for number of votes, with only 1 vote in the first 3 cycles, so purely based on stats is in that coasting under the radar sorta zone. I don't recall if they've had stated OOG reasons. Again, I'll check on that when I'm next on.

For day 3: At 47.5 hours, Crocodile votes Swan. At 45.5 hours, Meerkat votes Lion. At 45.5 hours, Swan votes Flamingo. At 45 hours, Flamingo votes Swan. At 45 hours, Rhino votes Flamingo. At 43.5 hours, Crocodile moves to Weasel from Swan. This puts Flamingo in the lead. At 31 hours, Toucan votes Mouse. At 31 hours, Scorpion votes Flamingo. This consolidates the Flamingo lead. Interesting choices from the Spiked here. At 30 hours, Mouse votes for Flamingo. At 26.5 hours, Toucan moves to Chameleon from Mouse. At 26 hours, Rhino moves to Chameleon from Flamingo. At 26 hours, Chameleon votes Dragonfly. At 24.5 hours, Hyena votes Dragonfly. At 23 hours, Crocodile moves to Lion from Weasel. Interesting they choose to tie up the Spiked Thug with Chameleon and Dragonfly in second place behind Flamingo. At 18 hours, Falcon votes Flamingo. This consolidates the Flamingo lead. (Lean village on Falcon) At 10.5 hours, Elephant votes Chameleon, putting Chameleon in second place. At 8.5 hours, Rhino moves to Lion from Chameleon. This puts Lion in second place instead. At 5.5 hours, Flamingo moves to Penguin from Swan. At 4.5 hours, Weasel votes Chameleon, tying for second place with Lion. At 3 hours, Chameleon moves to Lion from Dragonfly. This ties Flamingo and Lion. Interesting choice to put the Spiked Thug on the chopping block rather than vote Flamingo to increase the safety margin between them and Flamingo, even if they do low sus Flamingo in their post. At 2.5 hours, Scorpion moves to Chameleon from Flamingo. This ties Chameleon and Lion and protects Flamingo. Considered together it works to put Lion up for execution as the the preferable Spiked execution target. Although actively putting Chameleon in danger does reduce my sus levels on them I suppose. At 2 hours, Weasel moves to Lion from Chameleon. This gives Lion a two vote lead. At 1 hour, Flamingo moves to Chameleon from Penguin. This does make me feel better about Chameleon at this point. At 35 min, Mouse moves to Lion from Flamingo, giving up on the Flamingo train to double down on Lion. Still divided on Mouse. This removes Flamingo from threat, while consolidating on Lion. But if Flamingo was willing to put Chameleon under threat, why would E!Mouse consolidate on Lion rather than help the Flamingo counter wagon? Maybe we are in a V/V Mouse/Chameleon world? At 28 min, Ostrich votes Lion. At 2 min, Swan moves to Chameleon. At 1 min, Hyena moves to Lion from Dragonfly. At 1 min, Swan moves to Flamingo from Chameleon. Final Tally So some interesting stuff happens, but I feel like I need to thing about it more >>

It's a good point. It could suggest an inactive buddy who didn't get on to put in a night kill, forcing Scorpion to do the Night Kill.