Salmon Meerkat

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31 Pahn Kahl

About Salmon Meerkat

  1. Correction: In my view, any role that hasn't been confirmed could really be. Lurcher is a bit more explosive, but that being said, you can't really prove Regular, or action scan here. Roles with consistently provable actions include Tineye, Rioter, Soother, Smoker (if you have a Rioter/Soother/Seeker), and Seeker - a lot of this can still technically be fakeclaims or Mistborn claims. Would argue you're taking it all at face value here. E!Lurcher (in this hypothesis, because no one else would have Lurched Rhino) has no reason to claim and every reason to pick something unobjectionable like Thug or Regular.
  2. My view was no. And I feel that there's no significant difference to Rhino because it's conceivable Beagle chose Rhino to earn trust. But I note actions economy dictates that if we want to say Beagle chose RhinBut at the same time, there's the doxxing consideration - I feel the most realistic cycle in which you can think of doxxing a player against their will is when they're about to face the lynch. I don't like it when players do it to me, and especially not with an explosive role like Coinshot. We've explicitly had this discussion when Phat, the AG3 Seeker, just went and dumped the alignments and roles of every single player he Seeked in thread without giving a damn. Maili used to have this be an aggressive part of his playstyle - he died, all the roleclaims he had got dumped, period. So I chose to let Beagle make the decision on whether she wanted to have a threadfight on the basis of her being a Coinshot or no.
  3. Current State of kel's Reads: JEDI MASTER [=STRONG VILLAGE] JEDI KNIGHT [=MODERATE VILLAGE] PADAWAN [=LIGHT VILLAGE] INITIATE [=NULL+] NERF-HERDER [=NULL] ACOLYTE [=NULL-] APPRENTICE [=LIGHT EVIL] SITH LORD [=MODERATE EVIL] Which means I am minimally committed to a five-man team in the form of: Hyena/Beagle/Cham/Gorilla/Heron Additional slot, if there is, to go to Mouse, by my current credences, but may re-evaluate depending. Goodnight, all. See you on the other side. Remember to keep discussion broad and to revise credences where necessary.
  4. If I were Spiked and had a Smoker, it'd be tempting to try to see if I could force a mislynch or turn attention to Heron by Smoking Heron in case a Village Rioter checked. It's still a possibility. It's low effort trolling and doesn't affect the Night Kill and there are no Seekers so what does it matter? Edited to add: Okay guys, let's add extra homework. Give me your Elim team comp guesses - with players and roles. Specifically, think about who works with whom - we have Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla so far. Who works on that team? Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla/Axl/Rhino? Etc. Elims should have more difficulty doing this and I want us to get some analysis in the Night while I'm still alive. I'll work on my thoughts myself.
  5. Absolutely, unfortunately, as she was part of the N3 PM where I put her and the Mistborn and Vulture in contact with her, and have been shielding her from further attention under the presumption that Coinshot was softcleared Village due to the Ocho doubletap. Recently, due to the number of Lurchers and Thugs discovered, both Ostrich and I began to have doubts, and argued in PMs about it. I agreed with him that the de facto roleclear presumption no longer held and Beagle had to stand or fall by her own actions, and created a bunch of PM groups designed to watch her because the KGB is a circle of accountability. Here's the info so everyone is on the same page: C3 Beagle contacts me after the gambit is revealed and claims to be a Coinshot I 180 on her and stop pressuring her in thread and shield her from it Claim the Coinshot claimed to me on C2 in case Spiked are watching As both Swan and Vulture consent, Beagle makes contact with them in an aptly named AG4 PM (Fifth must be laughing his arse off) Flamingo panics about the lynch and PMs me; I agree neither of us trust each other but as she doesn't want to die and I want Gorilla dead, our interests are aligned. She claims regular Villager when I ask her if she can do anything about the votes. Beagle attacks Hyena. C4 Dragonfly claims Rioter to me and agrees to Riot to Hyena or vote Hyena in the worst case (Dragonfly also claims the D3 Riot to me, which explains why the action checks out) Swan scans Penguin as a Village Thug and Penguin is notified I PM Zebra about his sudden Hyena vote and discover he is another Lurcher Beagle attacks Falcon C5 Ostrich claims Regular Beagle is given a selection of targets, with Rhino being primary for Rhino's vote on Falcon. Beagle flips a coin and hits Rhino. Zebra agrees to Lurch me Beagle is told I am completely exposed, that the Lurcher is Lurching a high-value target from the protect list, and that I expect to die. Sorry guys. I will be even more paranoid next time to safeguard your personal data and mine. Full Gamma experience. You have been warned >:( Prelimary Thoughts: I feel as though Beagle's willingness to hit Rhino might mean they're not E/E or Rhino is a Mistborn who happened to rand Pewter, unless we speculate they had a team Lurcher who can't be Zebra. Beagle had an easy out because she had a target selection and could just have easily not gone with Rhino. If the Elim team had a Coinshot, they might be willing to forgo their NK for Zebra to earn my trust, under the presumption that Beagle's Coinshoot will make up for the lost kill. I'd say: Zebra/Beagle/Rhino not E/E/E. Open to opinions on whether this softclears Zebra as Zebra's voting patterns have recently been worrisome @Quartz Zebra - My advice would be to get some self-lurching in. If you're a Villager, you're no use to the Village dead. I'm likely a confirmed kill tonight, but you are absolutely a kill target if Village so I would advise you to think through when you want to self-lurch due to the lurching restrictions. I'd advise getting in contact with Ostrich or Penguin - Ostrich helped find three Spiked, and Penguin was scanned Village Thug by Swan before he died, meaning Penguin is Confirmed Good. Good luck, and I'm sorry :/ Flamingo is another questionmark - when given a choice between Ostrich or Flamingo as Swan's replacement, Beagle opted for Flamingo (this was C5), which in my view is both counterintuitive and less warranted. I will relook Flamingo when I have the time. If Heron/Beagle are E/E, feels like Heron would have picked a different target to splinter trains D5. Losing Beagle would have hurt them more than losing Cham. Tentative V on Heron for that, though I note a single vote isn't very much commitment and could just as easily been distancing. Matters in this context because we should relook the Rhino train before I went "hey guys what the hell." Dislike Alb's non-commitalness. Has not made a single defining vote for a lynch IMO and it feels painful to village-read on the basis of other's reactions, rather than what he has done. @Melon Dingo, @Sapphire Elephant, and @Plum Rhinoceros need pressure. I'm sorry, but if you're just going to keep telling us you're sorry but refusing to make any effort at all right now, you're not going to be a help at lylo either. I asked you one simple question N5 - who did you most suspect. It's an easy question. It's been five and a half cycles into the game. You should not have difficulty answering this. I'm not asking for a reads list. I'm asking for a single suspect. @Magenta Albatross, feel free to get off that fence and join them here Edited to add: @Azure Mouse - you too. And @Ivory Dragonfly - OH HELL EVERYONE JUST DO THIS. ONE TOP SUSPECT GO. Edited to add 2: Beagle was down for hitting Rhino until we later started to diversify the field. So tentative V on Rhino - we could speculate that a teammate helped Lurch Rhino, but then who sent in the kill order? Because Rhino didn't log in at all N5. So this requires four Elims, which in my view, is really strong with a Coinshot team. Only exception I can think of involves Rhino being an Evil Mistborn who randed Pewter. Beagle also was okay with hitting Alb in theory but dithered a lot about it. Make of it what you will. I might favour an Alb lynch more than Flamingo or Heron at this point. 2 Lurchers and 3 Thugs aren't that bad a balance for E!Coinshot either, which would make most vote manip (I hesitate to say all) Village. Thoughts on Elim team composition now, guys? Axl was supposed to have Rioted Heron's vote, which means that Heron either lied, or was Smoked. Take your pick. Maybe Axl is a Soother?
  6. Unclear, but if they did, Gorilla shouldn't have died. Smoked Rioter = 4 vote voteswing. Very likely they have a Smoker due to Seeker potential (unless we have just one Mistborn so GMs decided to let them take the L, in which case I'm gonna say they may have a Rioter.)
  7. Think my general view is I enter the game presuming players won't sheep me - this is likely a bit of holdover from my brain being stuck in LG20 days where my life expectancy terminated at N3 but nevertheless: A. I'm just one player, I make mistakes. I Village-read Cham D1 and voted for Iguana over Gorilla D2. By not sheeping me, we check each other's reasoning. This is the best way we keep each other honest and ensure our highest chance of finding Spiked. B. You guys still don't know my alignment. If I am the game's biggest ever deepwolf, then by sheeping me, you guarantee a Village loss C. If I'm wrong, which I often am, Elim players can slip by by claiming they're sheeping me because then they don't have to justify their responsibility for a bad lynch. In general, there are many reasons I don't like sheeping. These are some of the reasons why. It also places a significant amount of pressure on me to get things right because I'm aware the Village relies on me and that's not fair to the Village because it deserves a better anchor, and that's not fair to me either because I will give everything I absolutely have or can to try to get things right but it usually won't be enough and all we get is an exercise in mutual self-destruction. It's lose/lose for the Village and me. Game shouldn't depend on one player. Everyone is expendable, and so am I. I like discussing suspicions with players because I think it's a good way for me to refine things I overlooked, and hopefully we both benefit from the exercise. Talking to some players made me realise I was cutting Beagle too much slack just because I assumed I knew her player meta. But that's not the way to go. The KGB is a circle of accountability. For what it's worth, I like that you [Edit= Flamingo] brought the Alb issue up again, because at least I can read this as a consistent player tendency - it's one thing if you always want to go after Alb anyway for the survival and then Rhino came along. It's another thing if a player doesn't at all care about Alb's survival and then suddenly strongly dislikes Rhino's survival and votes on Rhino. The lack of 'convenience voting' looks a bit more Village to me, which is helpful. Ultimately, it looks like this cycle, I'm going to be forced to choose between <Heron, Beagle, and Rhino.> I don't know that this is an appealing choice but it is the way it is. I don't deny Rhino could be Evil but we've had rampant inactivity (meaning they're probably not putting in kills if they are Evil), and also, that Falcon vote. Which I'd really like to know more about since Cham apparently solicited both Alb and Mouse to make Iguana votes on different days - is Cham also soliciting votes in Rhino's case or not? Unfortunately, Rhino is inactive so there's nothing I can do on that front. Rhino would not be my first choice because Rhino's flip isn't very helpful except in terms of working out the Coinshot. (And even then, maybe.) Being an inactive has that problem. Heron. I don't know if my player ID read of Heron is confounding the issue or if I just tend to read any player with weird reasoning as being Sart (sorry Sart, QF46 though.) Heron feels a bit like Vegemite - which is to say you almost have to read how out of the loop they are and how they consistently fail to read the gamestate as being very Village or very Evil. I'm currently leaning light Village but their refusal to vote for one of their stronger suspicions raises my hackles. But suppose this is an indicator of Evil. Suppose Heron went for Rhino because Beagle and Heron are Evil teammates. The problem is this doesn't explain why Heron diluted the vote onto Beagle D5. Sure, they were all fresh trains, but this means we had three Elims under threat (Heron, Beagle, Cham) before the Cham train took off. I don't know how plausible that seems to me. Maybe moderately so but the last extreme bussing scenario that comes to mind involved an Elim team with a Smoked Rioter, i.e. the capacity to control the vote with up to a 4 vote voteswing. I don't think we have reason to see that in this game. If we did, then Gorilla should never have died. Which means, by process of Elimination, I'm left with Beagle. The problems with Beagle are multiple, in my view. I agree with Penguin that the Beagle-sized blindspot in Hyena's and Cham's analysis is concerning. And then there's the vote movements: Cham's vote tracker is wrong, by the way. This comes at just close to four hours to rollover. From the mood in thread, Cham must have worked out that I was not likely to be lynched, though I suppose he had a slight preference towards Lurcher!Falcon being lynched. But what's really interesting is that we know Gorilla has attracted attention, and Cham chooses to go for Falcon over the Gorilla or Beagle trains. He also lightly defends Beagle in the process: Beagle then remains off his lynch list. The next vote comes from Rhino, which is why I wonder about vote solicitation from Cham. Was this an attempt to kill Falcon or to save Gorilla? Or both? It's done with a lot of hedging but ultimately decided Falcon is weirdest of Beagle/Falcon/Gorilla. That vote safely turns the Falcon train to a four-vote train: Not much movement for a while after that and some squabbling. But then: Arise Riders of Theoden! The King of the Side-Train has come! And after an exchange with Ostrich and Heron in thread, I join in Gorilla Delenda Est mode. Suddenly a Elim is in danger and tied with Falcon. Ostrich and Zebra go onto the Gorilla train soon after. And then Beagle votes Falcon. This is apparently based off a reads list that has been in the works for a while, which means this could plausibly come before Ostrich and Zebra or somewhere between them, but temporally the vote goes on after, and the Falcon CW chases the Gorilla CW. I feel much better about Zebra from this, by the way. Scorpion goes off eventually onto Gorilla after a detour through Flamingo, and Vulture goes onto Falcon but with the understanding that he's ready to swap to Gorilla because he agrees with the Gorilla arguments and the Rioter isn't willing to go for Falcon (sorry Swan lol.) To me, the resistance to Gorilla indicates that Falcon had to be the CW. This automatically means we should look at everyone on that CW. We've found that Cham was Evil, and the biggest question marks accrue to Rhino and to Beagle. Beagle was also very, very resistant to voting Gorilla via PMs, even at a time where PM groups were worried the Elims had a Rioter (Vulture's Falcon theory) and that they could marshall up to a four vote voteswing. I think it's okay for Villagers to stick to their guns, but it's also understandable if people suspect you for it, when that makes you a voter on a Villager-CW as opposed to the main Elim train. Finally - though I think this isn't watertight, three players apart from myself knew I would be Lurched last Night. The thread specifically was told that the Lurcher had Lurched no one N4, leaving open the possibility I would be Lurched last Night. Beagle was the only player told the Lurcher was going to be Lurching a high-value target and I was going to be exposed. I don't think this is watertight because both Axl and Scorp seemed to nevertheless anticipate I would be killed N5. But it is what it is. I'm divided because I really don't want to think Beagle is Evil and I'd really rather not but I have a stronger case for Beagle as compared to Heron so I guess that's where I'm led to for now. Don't know if I'll be back much as I need rest and I have caught a bad bug and the meds make me tired.
  8. Ah, sorry. Your post was a helpful springboard, but it wasn't you you - it's about the general Rhino reasons offered. I think one could say the same of Heron, as I'm very much pressuring him on, because that seems more odd to me. I apologise for the distress caused.
  9. I'm going to put it this way: if Vulture were alive, I'd never be allowed to live for that slip. Is everyone Vulture? Obviously no. Is it expected that some Villagers would take that sort of post and run with it? Yes. But this also provide excellent cover for Elims, meaning people who do use this as a reason to jump off are back in the suspect pool. This is an interaction I'd be happy to have more scrutiny on. Yes. I continue to maintain rolelynching especially without a full sight of the distro is a bad idea - my point is that there's an asymmetry so when players choose to act on one suspicion but not the other, this is something we immediately have to question. Do they come by this honestly? Or is this an Elim trying to use this as a reason to get a lynch? This is why the inconsistency matters. It's not that Alb is Evil. It's that if you think Alb is Evil - or say you do - but don't vote Alb, and then vote Rhino in a cycle where there's pressure on Heron and Beagle, this looks odd. Consider everyone who kept arguing that Gorilla was innocent but Iguana was suspicious because of the D1 vote manipulation. You did. So did Cham. Cham was Evil. The point is not that no Villager will say this. The point is that Elims will take this as cover, so we have to question it. Friend, if you think I'm attacking you in particular, I'm sorry. At this point, from fog-of-war, all I see are interactions that look like a concerted attempt to save either Beagle or Heron by specifically going onto Rhino. This includes Heron, and there's a reason I'm not voting on you right now, though I have to admit this raises questions for me within my lower suspicion tiers again. It's not impossible that these are Village interactions, but as a living Villager, it is my job to call attention to vote movements that look suspicious or that don't seem to make sense within the context of the cycle.
  10. I'll be honest here. Yes, but I think there's a decent case made for Beagle and a decent case made for Heron, and I find it suspicious that all of a sudden, the Rhino train takes off - it looks to me like an Elim-led swing to try to save either Beagle or Heron, and it doesn't look good on most people on that train. I gaslit the Beagle arguments out of existence. This should never have flown in a game, and this is the closest to Elim kel people have seen in a while. I did it to test for reactions and those I've found just aren't very inspiring. Heron's responses are so out of touch with the game he either needs a phonebook, or he's Evil, because we have GM confirmation that two Thugs exist and are Village. His one power role hypothesis fails. He keeps insisting Beagle is Evil and then when given a choice between Beagle and Rhino, chooses Rhino. When he himself has argued that Beagle has more suspicious votes, Rhino's mere survival itself becomes suspicious! And this in a game where we don't have full sight of the distro, as I keep hammering home! Is the Coinshot Evil? Who the hell knows! If the Coinshot is Evil, this becomes immediately more explicable! If he's committed to a craptonne of hidden Mistborn (which he is), then more Thugs is also reasonable! Lynches on an inactive are by nature low-info. If we get the Village up in arms to state their position, I suppose it works, but there is no interaction to analyse, no ISO to go back on, nothing but a single isolated Falcon vote. I can't help but read this as an Elim train, and then my question is: why now? Why for Rhino and not for Cham? Except we did see that, didn't we, @Mint Heron? Convenient that your vote appears on Beagle when Cham is under threat. Convenient that this sudden change of mind happens based off a single Thug survival in a game where we don't have full sight of the distro and your thoughts on the distro are demonstrably wrong. If you feel a single suspicious vote and survival is enough to lynch Rhino today, you should be committed to lynching Alb as well. Why does Alb get a pass but not Rhino? This reads to me straightforwardly as an attempt to deflect the trains and I'm side-eying everyone on it right now but...especially Heron. Edited to add: I started this game yelling about CC. I would think people would find it odd if I just immediately bought that we should go for the inactives because that is the best way to take pressure off active Elims. I largely agree with Axl - there are likely some inactive Elims but I don't see the reason to go low info now when we haven't even cleared all the semi-actives yet!
  11. what in the name of athena did i just read edited to add: you think beagle is more suspicious and have devoted energy to getting her lynched but suddenly swing onto rhino? sorry friend reads evil to me
  12. I'm just going to have to argue I think your pool is mistaken, frankly I'm aware of the factors surrounding your later suspicions/votes, just considering whether it's really worth brawling about that in thread. I mean. I'm kel, but I'm aware that the player I'm impersonating may or may not have certain opinions on that >> I do want to talk about this though, because it dovetails with my Mouse and Dragonfly worries. I'm glad Dragonfly is speaking more because before that, I was worried they were in their lurker Elim meta (which I have maaaaybe seen once or twice forever ago but Dragonfly doesn't do inactive play, thank goodness.) I agree with Dragonfly's assessment of D5 Mouse but I still think D2 Mouse feels like a newer player following more experienced teammates onto a train. Edited to add: Again, it's not as though there's no response for this - it's that the thread is not a suitable place for this at the moment After all, she was in my lowest suspicion tier as well last Night. I basically just think that Beagle is Falcon #2 here, and that Cham and Hyena were tipping her for a secondary exe. Her response D3 to my scan was on balance a bit too blatant in slow-walking and obstruction to be Elim - Hyena just bit without blinking but that's to be expected from Hyena, she didn't engage with me in PMs on it, which I think doesn't fit with how Hyena's entire team seems to have been instructed to talk to me about it, and her responses just read like genuine confusion rather than Cham's MO of being an Elim trying to sow doubt about the poisoned train but not stick out from the crowd.
  13. I'm not against infolynches in a suspect pool. But you don't just up and infolynch someone who wasn't in your pool in the first place. I'm the Last Son of House Urbain. I get paranoia. I am very paranoid, as Falcon and Hyena discovered. But we have people lower in the pool who need to be pressed. This is not the time to go back to the higher tiers to infolynch. Clear the lower, then go higher.
  14. I'll be honest I don't agree with you on Beagle and I think you're tunnelling a bit :/ I'd...I hesitate to say more strongly because you read very V to me, and of course, since I should officially confirm this now beyond a shred of doubt for everyone, Swan scanned you Village Thug N3 so I know, logically, you have to be Village, but this feels like a paranoia spiral too far and a distraction from when we should be applying pressure to Mint Heron and the semi-actives. I think Beagle's D3 response read to me more V than E, and I feel like I'm currently more inclined to read Hyena's and Cham's defense of Beagle as precisely what you claim they should have done - setting up a convenient fall Villager for when/if they did flip. Falcon was the explicit target whom Hyena tied himself to, and Beagle the secondary. I'm glad we both agree though on Flamingo. Still leaning Village for her, especially for D4 and the attempted D3 CW.