Fuchsia Ostrich

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28 Pahn Kahl

About Fuchsia Ostrich

  1. Hmm yes it would. So whose claim are we missing? Mouse and Dingo? I assume you're a Regular, Scorp? Edit: I forgot Ocho was a Village Tineye as well hmmm, yes it's likely the last Tineye is evol
  2. Why would this have to be an elim Tineye? Is the argument that a village Tineye would have used the AMs and not hidden?
  3. I guess it's not impossible, but I'd still expect a Mistborn kill by now if there is an extra Mistborn in the team. For Alb, it's Thug + being the N1 hit + Cham attacking Alb and putting pressure on them in D2, voting to make it 3 votes on them at one point For Zebra, like Kel explained, 2 village Lurchers would be required to balance an elim Coinshot. If we have another Lurcher, we'll require that claim because then it's 50-50 between them. For Rhino, after losing 3 elims, I'd expect they realllly needed to decrease our numbers because they are not advancing towards their wincon and hence I think they were at a stage too late to pursue wgg. Rhino is probably weakest of the three, but it means one of the people who have not claimed is an active/semi-active Lurcher.
  4. Alright, let me try to explain my point of view. Granted, I'll give you D3-D4. Only re-thought D5 with paranoia because I felt your D6 was bad. How was D6 bad to me? Okay see, last cycle when it was 2-2 [Rhino-Beagle] and that's when Heron voted for Rhino to make it 3-2 and then you followed it up to make it 4-2. De-escalating a bit here, please try to see how it looks for me here. It looks like elims' last ditch effort to save their most important way to a win, right? This sequence is what seemed suspicious to me. And because I mentioned that, you reacted to it, and now I want to reconsider, which is good. As I said, I'm not that confident of my Final Three. I'm sorry that you felt excluded :/ The case for Beagle was, we tried, to always take her posts' merit and that was what was discussed in group PMs as well. The case we made for her was all from her posts and circumstances surrounding her. The only info we had extra [albeit a huge thing ] was the knowledge that she was the Coinshot. Could you take a shot at your guess about the rest of the elim team members?
  5. I'mma PoE this. Remaining players - [Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (14) Removing 100% or close to 100% village - [Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (11) Removing Lurchers and Thugs - [Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (8) This is where it gets a little tough to eliminate people, I'll remove struckthrough names for convenience - [Scorpion, Mouse, Dragonfly, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant, Axolotl] (8) Removing Scorpion because of other efforts to protect Gorilla in C1, it's counter-productive to the elim teams effort to bus a teammate in D1. Removing Axolotl because they kept bringing up LG79 Sart lynch as a proof to vote out Chameleon and Cham flipped village, giving us - [Scorpion, Mouse, Dragonfly, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant, Axolotl] (6) I'm 100% sure our final elims are in the Final Eight and about 90% sure they are in Final Six. Going further, I'm going to remove Dragonfly because of their vote vote to tip the Beagle to ahead of others last cycle. After 3 consecutive cycles elim death, elims would want to protect their most important asset role-wise. Unless it's an attempt to deepwolf, there's no need for a semi-active elim to vote on Beagle at that point in time. Also removing Dingo due to complete non-intervention policy when elims are in danger, we have our Final Four - [Mouse, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant] (4) IF we have to eliminate further, I'd remove Elephant citing they are too inactive to be an elim, we get a tidy set of - [Mouse, Flamingo, Heron] Flamingo had bad D1-D2, good D3-D4, unsure what to make of their D5 [could be bus], bad D6 ugh. Heron's D6 and as a result, D5 look very confusing. Mouse just sieves through the PoE and the only hint that they could be village is their 3rd vote on Cham during D3. Not so confident in the Final Three, but quite confident with Final Six.
  6. D2 re-read here we goo - Leaving out all the Beagle stuff because my thoughts are the same as the conclusions drawn from Penguin above and I agree with her so I'd just be repeating her thoughts. Quote below here is from Hyena's post about Albatross' survival - Here, he implies anyone pushing on Alb is creating a distraction and makes Penguin look bad, I get the feeling like he's setting Penguin up for suspicious later and there are hints of his TMI knowledge that Alb might be village because that's how Penguin would look suspicious of creating a distraction. As in, only way for Penguin to look bad is if Alb flips v. Above the third vote on Albatross and the post doesn't feel distancey in any way. In fact it looks like Gorilla is trying to find any kind of reasoning to vote on Albatross, so very not E/E vibe from this, Albatross feels more and more likely to be village. Cham's read list in D2 - Pattern dictates at least one elim in the group of [Melon Dingo, Mint Heron, Oxblood Beagle, Plum Rhinoceros, Sapphire Elephant] (pattern being placing at least one elim in each tier except the extreme tiers) I'm also inclined to deduce another one in the mild elim tier. After leaving out my trusted reads from the tier, I'm left with the group of [Mouse, Dragonfly]. I did find something on Beagle that Penguin missed out and I think it's pretty big - Particularly - They had initially voted for me but did not recall exactly whom they voted for so they retracted both Octo/Ostrich. Guess who mentioned killing Octopus was an accident due to confusion between Octo/Ostrich and that they intended to kill me? That's right, it was Hyena. This similarity of confusion between Octopus and Ostrich for both Hyena AND Beagle is the biggest indication so Beagle's evil alignment to me. [Rhinoceros] Bah, some Flamingo defence here by Cham. Flamingo is the most unsure village read I have of now. I really want to trust Flamingo because everything including and post-D3 is beautifully village but everything before is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Bah. Also, some Alb sus here, which, again, keeps increasing Alb vil points. Flamingo, c'mon -.- Focusing on reads from this Hyena post - Makes me very much want to read elim on Azure Mouse due to pattern on neutral reads here [pattern being all neutral+ being village which could imply all neutral- being evil] Sigh, I'd reallly love to know how Flamingo turned 180 on Gorilla. The 180 from a few posts before the end of D2 to a few posts after the beginning of N2. Annd I'm at the end of N2 and I almost accidentally clicked on the bookmarks at the top of the browser so I'll take it as a sign to hit send and continue from D3 later.
  7. Okay I'm sort of confused as to whom to go next , there's 15 players left so - Village - Ostrich, Meerkat, Penguin, Axolotl, Zebra, Scorpion, Flamingo Remaining - Heron, Beagle, Elephant, Dingo, Rhino, Albatross, Dragonfly, Mouse Arguments for V in Remaining pile - Heron - Insistence on E!Meerkat even after the gambit reveal Beagle - NULL Elephant - Way too inactive to be an elim/NULL Dingo - Non-Intervention when elim teammates in danger Rhino - NULL Albatross - Very quick vote on Meerkat on seeing the Tineye message, Gorilla's votes on them during danger Dragonfly - NULL Mouse - NULL Arguments for E in the Remaining pile - Heron - Only voting in side trains, avoiding main train discussion Beagle - Voting pattern Elephant - Asking for PMs to appear to be involved and not follow through Dingo - Non-Intervention [yes same reason to both V and E argument ] Rhino - Survived a kill, voted for Falcon when Gorilla train was coming up Albatross - Survived a kill, voting pattern Dragonfly - Sort of meta out of game reason being the GMs replaced Dragonfly and Mouse, ahead of Toucan Mouse - Same as above ^ From this, Albatross and Rhino are the standouts for me, but there's a stronger case for v!Albatross than v!Rhino [which is nothing]. I do feel like it's time we get to know the alignment for the 'attacked but survived' players because we have 2 Lurchers and 1 Thug basically confirmed village [Falcon and the Lurcher in Meerkat claims to be in contact with because they clearly saved him, Thug being Toucan], so Plum Rhinoceros Edit: To get some clarity, @Plum Rhinoceros, what are you? Thug who survived due to double life? Lurcher self-protecting?
  8. Re-read D1 and N1 and it's safe it say there's a lot of stuff that's sets off red flags about Pearl Chameleon. Penguin makes a good case for Cham as well. Here's a quote from Hyena, the very first read list, in which he seems to want to tie Crocodile to Pearl [when Pearl was in the lead] possible to sow the seeds of e!Pearl leads e!Crocodile The entire time Chameleon is in the lead with 3 votes, Hyena is very very hedgy about them, refusing to change their vote after they dropped in initially on Scorp. Link here shows Chameleon avoids voting for Gorilla here even in self defense with an out-of-nowhere vote on Swan. Go through the entire page here, the whole forgetting to post a reason for the vote ["oh man i totally forgot to give suspicion"] sounds very performative and when asked to give a reason, they just repeat what was previously given by other players [particularly Beagle's reasoning]. Their retraction after all the opposition to Swan's voting was also less than convincing. Link below shows Gorilla voting Swan ahead of Cham and Hyena, and we see Chameleon and Gorilla [and Hyena] actively avoid voting on each other. Quote here from Chameleon again. Vote manipulation is what saved both Gorilla and Iguana. Look at the difference in the inferences - from "not a fan of vote manipulation that saved them" for Iguana to "confused where the suspicion on them comes from" for Gorilla. Some other thoughts - Scorpion is village, sorry. Not willing to entertain bus debates [and yelling my own paranoia away], this is a team that looks like it's extremely protective of each other [at least in D1] - even discounting Cham's alignment, we have Gorilla and Hyena trying to protect each other. I really don't think Scorpion would undo all that and bus in the very first cycle. Even discounting the last minute vote, their interaction with Hyena is very much does not feel e/e. Flamingo looks bad enough in D1-N1 that I'll have to reconsider if Hyena's cw push on them in D3 was performative. Axl looks to be village as well. Really don't know what to make of Dingo's non-intervention. Either scared to mark themselves as the vote to be responsible for a villager's death or just plain villagery nonchalance. Coming to Magenta Albatross, looking back, it seems that Hyena was the first to mention they seem like a new player which makes me hmmm but other posts and their thread situation are much much better than Chameleon's. Edit: yikes 2 more votes on Chameleon as I typed up this post? That makes it seven to two, not sure what to make of this hmmmm
  9. Yes, finally got it thanks xD And yeah, if we do need to go there [possibility of e!Coinshot] it's a bit later in the game when we have more evidence, and not as early as now.
  10. Okay I'm still confused about your thoughts smh. How does possibility of e!Seeker link with the increase in possibility of e!Coinshot?
  11. Are you wondering why elims went for Swan instead of Penguin? Or are you asking why they went for Swan instead of you? Because I think it's the simplest explanation, that Swan's the next highest trusted player after you. And even if they did think you were bluffing about Lurcher#1's targets, there is still Falcon's Lurch to worry about, because they knew she was village. I don't think there was any communication about Falcon's Lurch but I think it's fair to assume that they thought she'd target you. So, Occam's Razor and all, it's likely they wanted to avoid a Lurched attack and went for the 2nd highest trusted read.