Emerald Falcon

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14 Bridgeman

About Emerald Falcon

  1. Demandred slowly took a sip of his wine. "That would be a valid point, my friend. Except I did, in fact, reveal my identity on the second day to Hyena. Additionally, if I were Lews, how could I have known that the real Demandred wasn't out there somewhere, destined to ruin my chances once he died or revealed himself? There is no possibility I could have taken such a risk as Lews." He paused for a moment, watching the other two, trying to gauge any kind of reaction from either of them. "By contrast, Scorpion, you claimed to be the former Forsaken Asmodean. Which, if you were Lews Therin, would be ideal Forsaken to pick - the Betrayer, who Lews Therin was so close to. Of all the Forsaken, he would be the least likely to be among our number here. He was the one who turned his back on our lord. He was the one who Lews Therin knew best. And unlike all others here, he is extremely unlikely to want to kill Lews Therin." "You accuse me for not following the pack. I confess it. I am many things, but I have no interest in being ordinary. But you, you have a far more serious crime. You tried to blend in, to seem like just another name among many. So no-one would notice you among the crowd. So no-one would snoop too closely, and see what secrets you had hidden away. And, you have very nearly succeeded." "But I noticed you, Lews Therin. And I will avenge my fallen comrades, and triumph in the Dark One's glory over your dead corpse." Seriously, I had way too much fun writing this. It's so much fun being a bad guy.
  2. Ah, right, that makes sense. In that case, Coral Swan is the most likely candidate, mainly through process of elimination (though paranoia is making me wary of both Scorpion and Hyena). If the game doesn't end this cycle, I'll have to rethink everything in the game up to this point.
  3. ...Huh. This is something I should probably have checked before now - are you sure it was the start of Cycle 2 that he PM'ed you from? Because Cycle 2 is when he first PM'ed me as well, meaning he must have submitted two actions that cycle. @Charcoal Hyena, do you have an explanation for that? And yeah, very little point in hiding it at this stage - I'm Demandred.
  4. Apologies for my absence last cycle - even in quarantine, IRL life still finds a way of being hectic. OK, so Tuatara claimed as Lanfear, which I think makes them unlikely to be Lews - there's too many ways that could go wrong (a counterclaim, or a female channeler discovering that Lanfear isn't a female channeler). Also, if I had to guess, I think Lews is alone, or at least, I'm only looking for Lews, not any of his colleagues. My other wild speculation, based on the effects of the lynch, is that Lews has some natural immunity or self-protection abilities which can only be overcome by the effects of the lynch, so we'd effectively had to both lynch and then try to kill them (although Balefire might also bypass his protection, who knows) - by the fact that Mouse was lynched and then balefired, it's possible someone else came to the same conclusion. Anyway, the remaining candidates are Hyena, Scorpion, Penguin, and Swan. Hyena - I'm leaning village on Hyena. They've spent at least 2 actions sending me and Scorpion PM's, which strikes me as a very unusual thing to do as an Eliminator. Even though as Dragonfly mentioned, Lews could easily have multiple actions, so they could still send in a kill, I feel like Lews wouldn't want to send out PM's for fear of risking their chance of being caught out - they claimed to me - if I'd said "Hey, that's unusual, I'm also [claimed role]", they'd have been stuck. But, they also chose to claim just to me, instead of to the thread, which is the safer choice, and for all I know, could have told Scorpion they were my role, or the other way round, thereby minimising risk further. For that reason, I'd be interested in finding a way to crosscheck with Scorpion whether we were both claimed the same role by Hyena. (The easiest way would be Hyena simply claiming, but if he doesn't want to do that we can find a work around.) Pending that being successful, I don't think they're the most likely candidate for Lews. Chance of being Lews: 20% Scorpion - Claimed Asmodean. It's possible a gutsy Lews could decide based on the timeline and the claimed wincons of the village that Asmodean was likely to be a player (Asmodean briefly worked with Lews in the books, so would therefore be unlikely to be a villager working to kill him, so safe to claim). This post struck me as very villagery, though, for what it's worth. And Hyena vouches for them. So, all in all, possible, but I don't find it likely at this stage. Chance of being Lews: 15% Swan - I looked back at the reasons Swan was lynched Cycle Three, and these were the reasons - 'Instinct', 'Self-preservation' (why people are casting self-preservation votes when the lynch doesn't kill, I don't know, but that's beside the point), and 'I trust Dragonfly' (who cast the Instinct vote). So... yeah, clearly that's a rock-solid case against Swan and we should all Balefire them tonight. Joking aside, I don't have any particularly strong reading on Swan, one way or the other. They've claimed M'Hael, which... yeah, sends me on a similar pattern of thought to Scorpion claiming Asmodean, since M'Hael is a less likely Forsaken to exist based on the guessed upon timeline. Chance of being Lews: 30% Penguin - Hasn't spoken much, but then, neither have I. Much of what they have posted has been early, with a focus on lore, and they've claimed an unnamed Forsaken role. To me, I think that feels like the safe move, to blend in with the crowd without the risk of being called out, so I'm hesitantly placing them as the most likely candidate to be Lews. Chance of being Lews: 35%
  5. OK, I'm completely lost. Claims: Amber Vulture - Unnamed ForsakenAmethyst Scorpion - AsmodeanAzure Mouse - Unnamed Female Forsaken (Graendal, Semirrhage, or Moghedien)Charcoal Hyena - Chartreuse Penguin - Unnamed ForsakenCoral Swan - Cream Tuatara - Lanfear/Cyndane Emerald Falcon - Unnamed ForsakenFuchsia Ostrich MesaanaIndigo Weasel Aran’garIvory DragonflyMagenta Albatross RahvinMauve Crocodile Shaidar HaranMelon Dingo - Aginor/Osan'gar Blegh. I was hoping going through, analysing peoples posts, and writing up the list of claims would help, but it didn't at all. (If I missed one, by the way, please correct me.) So Swan was roleblocked last cycle, but there were still not one but two kills. It's possible that both kills were friendly fire, though, in which case, I'd appreciate if the Ostrich's killer spoke up. Otherwise, that makes me think that Swan isn't Lews. We can also rule out Mouse and Tuatara, who can confirm for each other that they're both saidin channelers, and since Vulture participated in the Albatross kill, they can't have killed Ostrich last cycle either. Finally, Dingo and Scorpion have both claimed an explicit role, which almost certainly would have been counterclaimed if they'd been lying, so I'm going to rule them out too. That leaves Hyena and Dragonfly. Weasel seemed to trust Dragonfly, but confirmed good =/= confirmed right, so I'm not sure how much stock to put into that. Hyena, I'm also of two minds about - they're the one player to have PM'ed me, so far, and have claimed to me - I haven't had proof of that claim, but I at least have the opportunity to ask them how they acted in future turns. For that reason, by process of elimination, I'm going to vote for Dragonfly.
  6. I was working with the assumption that this was a game with the 13 Forsaken + Lews Therin. My other guess was that Crocodile was lying about his Forsaken claim, which seemed convenient with the timing, and like he was trying to blend in (which turned out to be correct, but for exactly the wrong reasons). His first post seemed to me like he was trying to post NAI content as well - admittedly most people were, at that point, since no-one knew what side they were actually on, but something about it still bugged me in particular. Possibly the fact that if he was a Forsaken, he'd have probably jumped to the same conclusion that I did about 13 Forsaken + Lews making up 14 players after a moments Google Search, but he didn't, which suggested a different role. It wasn't a strong read by any stretch, but I had also planned to replace it if I found something stronger later, which I never got around to.
  7. I'll claim the kill on Crocodile - I had an early guess that he was Lews Therin, so put in a temporary kill action which I meant to change later, but forgot (I'm really sorry, Crocodile). As for what happened to me, it seems the Dark One was... displeased with my actions, so I can't channel this cycle. Also, if any female channelers want to contact me, there's a saidar ang'real that I have but can't use, so you're welcome to it. Also, this game not being 13 Forsaken + Lews Therin has completely tossed out so many assumptions I was making this game, so that's nice. I'm trying to figure out just how troll-y Fifth is as a GM right now.
  8. I asked to confirm after I posted, and then got told I was incorrect, which is extremely embarrassing. On the up side, I have a great new idea for a game I could run now. So, all of the claimed roles are Forsaken, and no-one's directly contradicted the idea that this is a game with the 13 Forsaken and Lews Therin - at least some of the Forsaken are out to kill Lews Therin, but, if Weasel is to be believed, not all of them. How interesting. @Indigo Weasel, I have no expectation that you're going to be honest about this, but I'm curious enough that I'll ask anyway - I know our wincons are different, but are they compatible or directly contradictory? I would be extremely surprised if there was a Dark One. Even Lews, in all his power, would not be able to kill the Dark One if he were in the game (this isn't a spoiler, because it's basically the backstory of the Wheel of Time - Lews Therin Telamon, the Dragon, gathered a bunch of channelers and was able to trap the Dark One and his 13 most powerful servants, the Forsaken. The Wheel of Time is set thousands of years later, as the Dark One tries to break free from his prison. So our losing state would be Lews trapping all of us.) The Dark One is less a powerful channeler, like the Forsaken are, and more a force of nature/god that people serve for most of the series. Praise be his name. EDIT: Oops, twice ninjad. I think Crocodile got the point.
  9. Methinks the Forsaken among us should read their wincon more closely. This isn't a Village vs. SK game as some are suggesting. It's a faction game - each of the Forsaken has to personally cause the Dragon's death in some way if they want to win. From there, it's guesswork, but if I had to guess based on balance reasons, there will be some proof against us all just claiming our role. My guess is that Lews is immune to the lynch, or at least won't die from it the first time - if that were the case, then we would have to fall back on our kills to achieve our goal, which are (at least in my case) not entirely reliable. So, the point of the game, unless I'm mistaken, is this: The 13 Forsaken are hunting for Lews Therin, and we all want to find him first to kill him and gain favour with the Dark One. Lews Therin, The Dragon, is of course out to kill (or at least outlive) the rest of us first, and probably has a variety of irritating heroic abilities to aid him. The Wheel turns, my friends. May luck smile on the worthy.
  10. Hey all! Normally at this stage, I'd be all for grabbing someone for the lynch, but I wonder if in this game with so little information there's no point. Still, I might drop my vote on the leading candidate towards the end of the cycle - prevent any possible vote manipulations, and all that jazz. In the meantime, Amber Vulture - something about this post seems off - maybe it's just me. There are 14 books in the wheel of time series, which may have been an inspiration. Fifth's last wheel of time game had unique roles in it, and the fact that this is a blackout game makes it even easier to put in unique roles without giving players an easy way to prove those roles.
  11. Well, that was an interesting doc read. @Saffron Iguana, sorry not sorry for that PM accusing you of being an eliminator. It was a last-ditch, paranoid shot in the dark, and it didn't even get you. Oh well. Next time, maybe.
  12. Congratulations to the eliminators for winning after such a bad start! @Saffron Iguana, special note to you for pocketing me entirely. Well done. That was a failure of analysis on my part. @Amethyst Scorpion and @Magenta Albatross, thanks for RPing with me. It helped a lot with my engagement with the game.
  13. Yeah, real difficult, silencing an inactive who hadn't spoken for days when the thread had no activity in it. Clearly, Gecko was such an urgent threat that I had to drum up activity in the thread and ask for people to do enough analysis for a vote, instead of just waiting another 48 hours to use the Night kill on Gecko. Such a threat indeed.
  14. Scorpion. Your reasoning for your suspicion on me is inconsistent and contains several untruths. It feels more like an eliminator trying to get somebody lynched than a villager considering all their options. Case in point: First of all, Octopus was killed last Night. We received their alignment this Day. Gecko, on the contrary, was lynched last Day. However, you say that I tried to lynch Gecko after we learned of Octopus's alignment. Unless you consider me capable of time travel, this is flat-out wrong. Additionally, you say that lynch was suspicious, but you yourself participated in it. Clearly you did not see anything wrong with it at the time, when you voted on Gecko alongside me here: I probably will be lynched tonight no matter what I say. If you do, then please, villagers, try to keep the activity up, yeah? Hopefully once I'm dead you can rest your minds about me and go look for some actual Sympathizers.