Cream Tuatara

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14 Bridgeman

About Cream Tuatara

  1. I didn't receive a PM from Falcon C1 so there's that
  2. Looking at who has been online, Azure Mouse was online 4 hours ago, Coral Swan was online 2 hours ago, Indigo Weasel was online 9 hours ago, Magenta Albatross was online 21 hours ago, and obviously you, I, and Emerald are all online currently. Don't know if this is useful. Anyways, I'm sitting here really unsure whether or not it's worth shifting to Albatross or not. Does the silence from the other players suggest that they're happy with a Mouse lynch? Are they waiting till late to vote? Or are the only active people eliminators that they're just happy with the state of affairs. But if so, why isn't the rest of the village voting...
  3. So these are all the vote tallies from across the game. Some thoughts: Cycle 1 - Mauve Crocodile originally voted on Indigo Weasel, before moving that vote to Mint Heron. Potentially the reason Crocodile's vote was removed was because it had been on Weasel? That being said, Crocodile did move his vote to Heron 13 hours before the end of cycle, so there should have been time to change actions if necessary. So there's probably nothing significant there. Cycle 2 - This was the only cycle a vote wasn't removed from anyone. Also the only cycle Weasel voted, although they did put down a vote, then shifted it becaue they had voted on a dead player, then removed it again. Probably just a coincidence though. Everyone piled on Scorpion, with a sufficient lead that there wasn't a lot of use for anyone removing a vote. Cycle 3 - There was a tie between Falcon and Penguin, before a vote was removed from the Falcon lynch. It maybe interesting that the lynch that one had two players we don't know the alignment of, and saved one of those players. I've otherwise gotten good vibes from those two players though, so don't know... Cycle 4 - There was a one vote lead on Swan against the Dragonfly lynch that appeared fairly last minute (3 hours and 2 hours prior to the end of cycle). Interestingly, Swan didn't vote at all to save themselves. They were 'saved' by a vote being removed from their lynch, but that still just meant a coinflip. Not sure how I feel about the last minute nature of the Dragonfly lynch. Probably reflects more poorly on Albatross than Mouse. Don't know if it's likely for a Mouse, Albatross, Swan team or not... Maybe Albatross and Swan at least? The other thing I wanted to look at is the suspicions of the players who've died in the last cycle or two: - Crocodile was most suspicious of Swan and Mouse, and didn't think Falcon (or Dragonfly) were the most suspicous last cycle. - Dragonfly tunnelled on Falcon - Penguin was last suspicious of Falcon for their comment that "It seems we are on our way toward Lylo, or worse, a perfect elim game. " at the start of cycle 3. It wasn't until cycle 4 that Falcon actually posted a breakdown of the progression towards lylo. I need to think further. Although at this point it seems unlikely a shift in the lynch would occur... Edit: @Emerald Falcon I'd be willing to vote on Magenta Albatross or maybe Coral Swan. But even if I do think there's a reasonable chance that Swan is an eliminator, I don't think they're the eliminator to be putting in orders, based on what came out last cycle with the Emperor. So attempting to lynch one a different eliminator would be preferable to potentially block the eliminator kill or remove the vote remover (Glory Arbiter?) from the game. But then I guess it'd be better to at least get an eliminator...
  4. Hmm. So I did get a response from Mouse, and so my thoughts regarding the situation in my PM has dropped to being more non alignment indicative. I had been wary before anyway, but I'm now less sure... I'd really have hoped that we'd get a little more discussion at this point. @Indigo Weasel Cycle 2, you said this: What did you mean "for selfish reasons"? I'm going to continue going through the game to see if I can refine my suspicion list further... Edit: I'm still pretty unhappy with the lack of engagement and contribution from Magenta Albatross. Could very easily be an eliminator just sitting around remaining active enough to mostly be seen as active without actually contributing to the game. Edit 2: Same goes for Coral Swan. At least we're pretty sure that they're not the vote remover or the person putting in the night kill, based on what we heard with the Emperor. Doesn't clear them from being an eliminator, but even if they were, they are possibly less immediately pressing if they're otherwise occupied with their actions. And if they happen to be good, then hopefully they'll be using the 4 skeletals they've stockpiled and try and prevent the vote remover or eliminator night kill from happening. Still leaning village on Falcon and Dingo. So then it's just Mouse and Weasel. Weasel I find hard to get a read on, and I've already talked about Mouse... They've been active without contributing a ton - they've demonstrated the ability to produce some good analysis but have only really done that once. No one's really had any clear tells in their posts in thread that have felt like they suggest their eliminators. I think I need to look over how the lynches have played out again...
  5. Maybe I'll PM you. Not sure if I'm ready to share the details in thread just yet. My take on it was that there seems to be someone who is able to remove a vote from someone else. Village vote manipulators tend to not use their abilities unless they feel strongly about someone involved in the lynch (like being threatened themselves). There's been no indication that that's the case. Eliminators however know who their allies are, and when they're not threatened, they can use their ability on whoever they want because it doesn't really concern them exactly who is lynched. And that's much more how it looks like the vote remover has been using their ability. If you view the vote remover as being an eliminator then, would you expect the votes they remove to be villager votes, or eliminator votes? If you think that having your vote removed by an eliminator makes someone seem sorta village, then it could be a good tactic to do it to yourself, when it doesn't matter, to try and gain some trust. It was certainly something I was thinking about earlier, and brought up a couple of times, but it's basically playing the IKYK game. I don't know if that's exactly what Falcon was saying, but that was my take on it at least.
  6. Okay. I think I'm ready to put a vote down on Azure Mouse. Already someone I was borderline suspicious of on my suspicion list from last cycle, I nevertheless asked communicated some info to them in PMs towards the end of last cycle because I was unsure and willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. They acknowledged my message around 27 hours ago, but didn't follow up. 13 hours ago I prompted them for a response, which they saw 12 hours ago. I have since seen them on 10 hours ago and 3 hours ago, and have yet to respond. As I was passing on some information that would be useful for working against the eliminators, and the response I was looking could have been satisfied with a yes or no, it worries me that I've not gotten a response, when we're almost halfway through this cycle and this is probably the most important one of the game. Feels to me like an eliminator choosing to delay their response to prevent village from acting on it, when a villager should have been able to easily respond. Add on the fact that Dingo and Falcon have also expressed suspicion of Mouse, so unless anyone has a better idea, that's where I'm going to vote.
  7. I'm really not happy about the vote removed from the Swan lynch... I need to think... @Coral Swan This would be a good cycle to stop making the things and use one then. You've got a 1 in 3 chance of blocking the kill or stopping the infernal vote remover from messing with another lynch. Either is probably a good thing at this point. @Emerald Falcon I'd lean towards Mouse or Weasel of those four.
  8. So votes are currently sitting at: Crocodile(2) Falcon, Mouse Albatross(1) Crocodile Falcon(1) Dragonfly Dragonfly(1) Albatross I have mixed feelings about a bunch of stuff. So Swan seems to be claiming to be a Rememberer, but we have already seen one of those, and they were village. If the suggestion that black roles were possible for Heritage or Glory is accurate, then maybe Swan could be Glory. Or is it reasonable for Heritage to have two Rememberers… I know I've been thinking about if Crocodile or Swan could be Glory with a Glory vote manipulator removing their vote to try and make them seem village. While I'm still mulling that over, I do think that if we have 3 eliminators, they're maybe more likely to not have vote manipulation, while if there happened to be only 2 eliminators, that there's a much higher chance of them having a vote manipulator. Which I think is more likely may affect my views of Swan and Croc but I've not come to a decision on that just yet I think... Seeing Albatross's post just now, I'm curious about something. Albatross: 8 posts - 2 per cycle, mostly non-comital, commenting on things that happen but not really engaging in the conversation. This cycle is the most they've contributed, and they've had a vote on them for most of the cycle. Crocodile: 7 posts - 4 cycle one, 1 in each following cycle. Claims to be one of the people to ask Elandera about if Glory knew each other (like normal eliminator teams). Shared info about PMing with Vulture. I'm probably leaning slight village from reading through all their posts. Dingo: 14 posts - 3 cycle one, 2 cycle two, 6 cycle three, 3 cycle 4 - first cycle was mostly trying to understand rules and poke votes. Disliked the poke votes and voting on inactives. This cycles posts maybe have a different feel to them, but I'm not sure if I'm reading too much into that. Dragonfly: 6 posts - 3 cycle one, 1 cycle three, 2 cycle four. Initial thoughts were quite perceptive, and this cycle has tried to look at the voting patterns from last cycle. Tunnelling on Falcon. Falcon: 10 posts - 2 cycle one, 3 cycle two, 3 cycle three, 2 cycle four. Poke vote and retraction cycle one. Has been fairly open with sharing info in thread. Probably leaning village still on them for this reason. Mouse: 8 posts - 3 cycle one, 1 cycle two, 1 cycle three, 3 cycle four. Only really basic speculation before this cycle. Their one large post this cycle is nice. Without it I would definitely lean elim on them for being active but not contributing. With it? Well, I'm leaning village on Croc and Falcon, so not sure. Still wary of them maybe. Swan: 15 posts - 6 cycle one, 4 cycle two, 4 cycle three, 1 cycle four. They've not really said anything of value for most the game. Well... mostly speculation on if the game is faction or if there are any neutrals. Had a poke vote cycles one and two, with little reasoning behind them. They've basically claimed Rememberer, but I'm probably leaning elim on them. Weasel: 8 posts - 2 cycle one, 5 cycle two, 1 cycle four. Has shared a few suspicions here and there, though could do with finishing their lists. Interstingly their suspicion list here are all dead now other than Mouse. Wouldn't mind getting their completed thoughts. Possibly slight elim lean on them. So that's elim leans on Swan and Weasel. Might just do one more read through of some posts before putting down a vote. Edit: I think I will go voting on Coral Swan. With no indication yet that there's any value to art beyond the fact a role that creates it exists, it feels like a role that could easily fit on a 3 player Elim team.
  9. To respond to Crocodile from last cycle: Penguin did not get on and post anything before 30 minutes before the cycle ended. While we can't know if their vote was manipulated or not, it feels quite unlikely that penguins was manipulated because it was so late in the cycle. My experience has been that in standard games most villagers are pretty restrained in their use of vote manipulation until they feel strongly about a lynch. I don't think anyone felt strongly about the day 1 lynch - it's an anonymous game so no one knows who is who, there wasn't any discussion of note for people to build suspicions off, and the people who had votes removed off them were a villager without their own vote manipulation, meaning they weren't protecting themselves. The eliminators though know who isn't them and provided they are safe from the lynch, there's little reason to not caused chaos, or try and use their vote manipulation to garner some trust. Basically the argument is that villagers are unlikely to vote manipulate cycle 1 (and I'm confident Vulture didn't - they could have saved themselves from the lynch easily otherwise), while the eliminators could do so safely and having one's vote (re)moved could possibly be seen as evidence of being village. I'll post this now and then read the thread and edit/post more thoughts then.
  10. Sorry for leaving it so late to post - I was out all yesterday. I had started writing a post but didn't get time to post it, so I've updated it a bit. I'd probably agree with you that the other roles presumably weren't faction specific so were black, and the assumption that each faction has at least 1 unique role seems reasonable. Voting on inactives is weird. They are more often villagers than not (though that's also largely due to there being more villagers than eliminators), but keeping active villagers alive for longer is preferable to lynching the active villagers and then letting the eliminators sweep up the inactive villagers at the end. It just means the village ends up walking the line as they have less opportunities to miss lynch. Hopefully not something we'll have to worry about going forwards though. Everything was so spread out on Day 1 that while I'm sure the eliminators voted, I think that the main guesses we could make would be based on the changes to player votes. So I would be more inclined to believe Azure Mouse to be village as they had a vote shifted to them. I feel like unless they were protecting themselves, villagers are less likely to mess with the day 1 lynch than the eliminators are. Beyond that, I'd probably imagine one of the voters Day 1 would be an eliminator, though probably not any more than that. Day 1 voters were myself (Cream Tuatara), Mauve Crocodile, Charcoal Hyena, Coral Swan, Chartreuse Penguin, Emerald Falcon (though they removed their vote entirely) and Azure Mouse, all of whom are still alive. Penguin's late vote (30 min before rollover) might be an eliminator who had hoped that the vote would be removed and when it wasn't tried to force a different lynch. Swan and Crocodile's removed votes (I assume it was Swan's that was removed given Penguin voted so late) could also be eliminators intentionally removing their own vote to make it look like they were targeted when none of them were in any danger so it didn't matter who was lynched. I feel like one of Crocodile or Swan doing this is more likely than Penguin being an eliminator coming in late to try and save themselves. Looking at the rest of the game since, if it were earlier in the cycle, I would probably put pressure on Charcoal Hyena, as they posted once near the start of the first cycle and haven't since, even though they've been online. Next cycle maybe. For this cycle then, I'd probably opt for one of Coral Swan or Mauve Crocodile, based on the cycle one vote manipulations. I'd probably lean more towards Crocodile because of this post: The final paragraph, they specifically bring up the idea of Swan's vote on Scorpion being (re)moved as something the eliminators could do, but thought it was unlikely. Bringing it up and then immediately dismissing the thought as it being an unlikely play for an eliminator would be a nice way of diverting attention away from the fact that they may have done that exact thing with Crocodile to try and garner them trust. I'll put my vote on Mauve Crocodile for the moment then, but I may change it later if no one else votes (likely to Coral Swan) - again, I'd rather have 2 or 3 votes on a player than to allow the lynch to be at the whims of any vote manipulators.
  11. So the votes put down on people last cycle were: (ignoring retractions) Heron(2) Falcon, Crocodile Vulture(1) Hyena Weasel(1) Crocodile Ostrich(1) Tuatara Penguin(1) Tuatara Albatross(1) Mouse Scorpion(2) Swan, Penguin Not sure I'm convinced with the suggestions for how Falcon's vote retraction suggest their evil. Only way I see that working is if they really wanted to kill Heron, but rather than lynch directly they ensured that Heron wouldn't be lynched by a retraction and a vote (re)move, so that the kill didn't double up with the lynch. But assuming the Glory faction has no extra info on Heritage roles, then I don't see why any one person would be better to kill than another. Just target someone without a vote on them. Regarding Falcon's comments about soulstamps, I'm wondering if that supports the idea that there are forgers in this game. I'm unlikely to be able to make it back online before rollover, so based on the current options I'd probably rather reduce the likelihood of vote manipulation, so I'll add a vote to Amethyst Scorpion.
  12. @Elandera I enjoyed the writeup and now I'm looking forward to see what else you write! Well we certainly learnt a thing or two. Definitely seems like we've got more of a standard elimination thing going on, and there are at least roles in the game. So with the vote manipulation, we know that Vulture was able to move a vote. Do we reckon they did? I'd probably lean towards no. Assuming they were aware that Charcoal Hyena's vote meant that there was a chance they could be lynched if everyone had a single vote on them, I would have either moved Charcoal's vote elsewhere (which didn't happen), or move someone else's vote to someone else. Given that the only player who got a vote moved to them was Azure Mouse, who was not at any point voted for by anyone so wasn't going to put a lead on anyone else, it seems more likely to be that Vulture just didn't use their ability. If so, then we've still got one or two vote manipulators alive, depending on the type of vote manipulation. But I guess Ostrich already mentioned that. We might want to be more definite on lynches if we want to avoid leaving things to the whims of the vote manipulators. @Emerald Falcon - had you mentioned soulstamps when talking to the GM, or was the GM the first to bring up soulstamps? I've got more thoughts I'm mulling over but I've got up leave for a bit. I'll probably put down a vote when I get back.
  13. Well Ostrich turned up at least. It's over halfway through the cycle and we've not seen the following yet. Amethyst Scorpion Chartreuse Penguin Magenta Albatross Mint Heron I'll move my vote there for the moment...