Amethyst Scorpion

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18 Noble-Blooded

About Amethyst Scorpion

  1. It would be strange for an villager to send a message N1, never do so again, and then never tell anyone about it.
  2. PMs still being open suggests that the elim Tineye who sent in the message N1 is still around. A mistborn would only have a 1/64 chance of getting tin again, but I guess it could also be a Mistborn who got bronze N1 while Hyena got tin making it more plausible that a mistborn could get tin. Heron claimed Smoker D6 and according to Axl was indeed Smoked. A Coinshot/Mistborn/Smoker/Tineye/Regular/Regular is still the most likely option for elim Heron, and if Heron happens to be a Mistborn we'll find out anyway. Mint Heron.
  3. For voting Gorilla D1 and Chameleon D5. Penguin got scanned as a village Thug by Swan who's a confirmed villager. The only way for Penguin to be evil is if Meerkat is lying.
  4. What's the probability of not getting a kill the first five cycles? 7/8*(7/8-1/64)*(7/8-1/32)*(7/8-3/64)*(7/8-1/16) ~42.7%, so an ~57.3% of a Mistborn rolling steel. Don't feel like doing the calculations for a Mistborn who say gets bronze twice in a row and thus on night 3 still has a 7/8-1/64 chance of getting steel, but this reduces the chance to maybe 55%-57% or so. Cham put pressure on Alb but didn't vote for him. The three people who voted for Albatross were Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, and Emerald Falcon. Even just one Lurcher and three-four village thugs against a five person elim team with a Coinshot is reasonably balanced. Zebra saving Meerkat when they could have gotten away with not doing that and Zebra voting Gorilla D3 when the Falcon counterwagon was viable do make me read Zebra as village. It is true that an elim Lurcher saving Rhino requiring a seventh elim to submit a kill and a lack of logging in to check if they got Pewter if they were a Mistborn makes the alternative that the elims shot their own Thug when Beagle could have gotten away with killing someone else very unlikely.
  5. We still have to find out where that fourth tineye message came from. A six person team with Rhino would mean the sixth player is a Mistborn or Rhino is a Thug who's extra life they spent on purpose. Axl could technically be a Mistborn but I don't think that's likely. Rolewise I think Mistborn/Mistborn/Coinshot/Regular/Regular or Mistborn/Coinshot/Tineye|Seeker/Regular/Regular/?. Six people including a Lurcher feels more likely than six with a Thug, but could be other things to. The double Mistborn team might have a weak role but not a Thug. Playerwise, hmm. I think it would have been easy for Heron to jump on Violet or Magenta D5 instead of Beagle, or even bus Chameleon, but the single vote for Beagle was unlikely to kill her with four other trains in existence. New Mouse seems more village than old Mouse, voting for Chameleon D5 when they were still potentially saveable and bringing up the possibility of an elim Coinshot when that wasn't being discussed (although postulating an elim Coinshot and rejecting it without having read the game is notable). 100% convinced of removing Alb/Rhino/Zebra is a lot. A six member team including a Thug is possibly too strong, and Beagle wasting one of her teammate's lives would be costly, but between that and the possibility of Alb or Rhino being Lurcher protected you get a number higher than 0. What happened in the past 11 hours to make you certain? Beagle did get wrapped up too much in PM trusts. I largely stopped thinking about Beagle when she was 'cleared' in PM discussions with Meerkat and didn't start forming an opinion until Meerkat told me he'd been lying about trusting Beagle. I knew on D5 that Meerkat didn't trust the Coinshot but thought he was referring to Chameleon. I did know that Meerkat suggested the kill on Rhino and learned that Beagle was the Coinshot after spending a few hours arguing in PM for v!Coinshot/e!Rhino. The knowledge that the Coinshot had been directed to hit Rhino could have been made public since it was known that Meerkat and Penguin at least were in contact with the Coinshot. Meerkat defending Beagle D6 even to Penguin when he already had a strong suspicion of Beagle makes it reasonable for a villager not to vote Beagle because any personal opinions get overridden by the knowledge that you don't have as much information as someone who thinks Beagle's village. I don't know how much of this could have come out without making it obvious that Beagle was the Coinshot. Not explaining anything about Rhino could be an elim trap, but one that could easily catch villagers as well.
  6. Looks like a decision's been made about Oxblood Beagle. It would be nice to have Rhino show up and talk, but Meerkat is right that the act of surviving a Coinshot kill is no more suspicious for Rhino than for Albatross.
  7. Meerkat had to have been saved by a Lurcher since he's not a Thug. I don't see why a village Lurcher would have protected Rhino so they're either a Thug/pewter Mistborn or were saved by an elim Lurcher/Iron Mistborn. Hyena being responsible for saving Alb would mean there's an elim who Seeked Falcon N1 and an elim who sent in a Tineye message N1 who are unaccounted for.
  8. I think Cham defended you more than anyone still alive, saying more than once that they don't understand/agree with the suspicions of you. Also notable is Chameleon pushing suspicion on Albatross though did not commit to a vote D2 when there was an actually chance of Albatross getting exed.
  9. Same reasons as I've mentioned before, that you were encouraging people to switch to the main wagons D3 and preferred Falcon over Gorilla. I at one point had you and Hyena as not e/e but I can't remember why I thought that since the two of you never even voted for each other (until D4).
  10. D2 we had 4 Tineye messages: Meerkat, Octopus, Mistborn 1 (Swan presumably), and unclaimed. If Hyena scanned Falcon N1, he couldn't have submitted the fourth Tineye message. Either there's a Spiked Seeker or an unknown player had tin N1. With Falcon being village, let's start off with Pearl Chameleon.
  11. I misread you saying you'd appreciate the Coinshot telling you they were killing you as that actually happening.
  12. If you didn't know who the Coinshot was, you're also lying about the Coinshot telling you about an impending attack because they certainly wouldn't claim now.
  13. Like I've said, there's a pretty good chance of Falcon being evil. The best point in their favor is that the Coinshot is still alive, but I think someone other than Falcon knew by N2? I'm not actually sure.