Fifth Scholar

This was a really fun game. Thank you very much for running this, @Young Bard, especially for the wonderful and creative writeups. I’d like to apologise to Ark and Walin for accidentally pursuing them. I had Snipexe as an Elim candidate, but he distanced quite well towards the end and you two seemed like more obvious choices. Also, I’m sorry for consistently doubting you, Road and Itiah. I started getting more than a little paranoid at the end when the actions systems got weird. I’m sorry you didn’t get your victory, Devotary, though I will point out that had you voted either way, it would have been yours. Thanks for being a willing and helpful partner, and putting up with my nervous rambling and madcap ideas. I’d be minded to just essentially give an honourary win to you, though, as you definitely deserved it. Congrats to the Elims for coming out of the first two cycles with a plan to preserve their remaining member, which mostly worked. Is there any reason you didn’t kill those two nights, @Snipexe? As someone who ran a game with almost the exact same Bronze role that you did, I can say that it worked out very well, though perhaps that was due to the differing nature of my action system. I think most of the Feruchemy was well-balanced, though I’d concur that Pewter felt a little impotent at times, and after using it once when I really didn’t need to, I couldn’t really justify using it again after that. So I just threw snowballs instead.

Ugh. I’m sorry for the double post, but as this will contain a vote (and a fairly important argument) I don’t feel as badly. First of all, the lack of meaningful engagement this cycle is a little appalling. There have been no votes; while I realise I’m guilty as well, I’ve also been PMing, laying out my thought process, and going through the previous thread to try to analyse. There’s been good analysis of our results, but nobody’s actively trying to make a lynch case and advance the game. Currently, I feel as though most of the village is simply waiting for me to analyse, vote, and then tag along. While this is lovely and good if I’m right, if I’m wrong, this is disastrous, as evidenced by the Walin lynch. Also, it seems a little close to giving me a “mayor” position, which is not something we need to return to in SE—we killed that problem only a few LGs in for the most part. I’m doing enough of advising people and coordinating actions without literally everyone just following my moves >> Second, I have reread the thread, though not nearly with the depth I would have liked to. If (going off this cycle’s results) we’re inclined to clear Devotary, Roadwalker, Shane and Itiah for their individual roles in how the action system last cycle went down, that leaves myself, Ark and Snip. Myself: I’m taking myself out of my own lynch discussion, though others are certainly free to propose me as a candidate if they feel I’m evil. Again, I doubled my vote on Walin yesterday, but this cannot be verified by the vote count. This cycle I have nothing better to do than throw a snowball at the GM, so I think I’m submitting that because I prefer that my vote actually do something. Snipexe and Ark: As you may have recalled, I lumped these two together as likely villagers last cycle in my analysis, saying that Snip was more village than Ark and that I was clearing both at that moment for their votes on Elandera. Obviously, with more suspicious candidates out of the equation, I now have to return to these two. Snipexe: The only thing I can’t place about Snipexe is his role, which he’s remained tight-lipped about. It’s my current belief that he’s a village debonair, though that’s only a theory, but the fact does remain that he’s the only person from which I don’t have a role-claim. Despite that, after rereading his posts, I got a sense of general village-ness (that is a word) that I couldn’t quite place. He seems willing to express his opinions, joined the Elandera train before it was completely hopeless, and doesn’t seem to shy away from voting. Most convincingly, his Elandera vote was explicitly a choice to kill her instead of Roadwalker, who seems fairly village, and unless this was a premeditated bus (which at the time of his vote would have been excessively early; Elandera was within reach of redemption) he chose an Eliminator over a villager in the votes. I’m still uneasy about Snip, and he’s my second suspect, but right now I’m much more suspicious of... Ark. He voted on Elandera, which made me minded to clear him until I saw that the vote was at 3-1 when she was killed, and only widening. His vote wouldn’t have saved her, and only would have gotten him lynched immediately. Hopping on would allow distancing and would keep Ark out of the public eye. Second, the strange way he pushed the lynch against Shane. While I get that Shane looked suspicious, with the recent evidence that Shane is most likely not evil, the weird way he seemed to tunnel on him is looking more like an attempt to drive a mislynch and less like a confused villager, particularly the way in which he hedged the case at several points. Finally, after realising that Shane is more widely trusted this cycle, he’s now trying to incite paranoia about myself and Roadwalker. I’m not offended personally, and appreciate that he’s challenging me, but spreading uneasiness about the two players who are least likely to be evil is a good way to sew...er, sow, chaos and paranoia amongst the village.

Itiah also took an action that I believe either clears him or makes him significantly less suspect. It would be fun to have so successfully duped the village, but unfortunately I’ve been lying way too much these past cycles for any self-respecting Elim to consider, between phishing and trying to set up a victory by lynch and getting reads through PM. I’d say there’s actually quite a bit of evidence against me, and I’d be a little interested in what a lynch case against me would look like, but ultimately it requires a lot less tinfoil to believe that Snip or Ark is an Eliminator than myself or Roadwalker. (Though we may have to start engaging our tinfoil soon. I’m going to reread the thread, and along with it, my impressions of every player.) Ultimately the last second lynch on Walin yesterday was more a bit of hubris on my part that I thought I had things figured out, the lack of elim kill laying a false trail to Walin, and the title underneath my name proving itself true again.

Huh. I’m genuinely baffled right now. Shane seems innocent; he had no reason to target Roadwalker last night with the decoy role if he was evil. I looked through all my PMs and unless the doctor leaked that they were protecting Roadwalker, there would be literally no way for him to find that out either. Devotary and Roadwalker’s actions are accounted for, and they both make sense as non-Eliminators. As does Itiah’s action, too, really. I doubled my vote on Walin, if anyone is curious, for all the good it did. That leaves Snipexe and Ark. Snipexe didn’t roleclaim to me, but he did vote decisively on Elandera. Looking back, said vote was placed when the lynch was already secured, so I suppose it clears him less than I suspected originally. Meanwhile, Ark hasn’t done much to stand out except push for Shane’s lynch last cycle. He too joined the Elandera vote, though he did so last, and the wagon was definitely cemented by the time he voted. Thoughts from everyone else on how to sort through this mess? Who are other people most suspicious of?

Hmm. Ark, depending on how things go, I may owe you a brass metalmind. The continued lack of an Eliminator kill is incredibly odd. @Young Bard, if we killed all the Elims, would we still need to kill the Deepness to win? The rules seem to say otherwise, but the lack of kill is kind of making me wary. My main suspects now are Shane, for the earlier reasons stated and the fact that he mysteriously survived an attack; Ark, mostly because I can’t eliminate him from any list, though I’m admittedly less concerned about him; and potentially one of Snip or Itiah, though I find those two the least likely. My best theory is that Shane or the other doctor whose anonymity I’ll protect was a doctor, and chose to protect themselves against the Deepness, instead of killing. Shane, however, claimed a different role than Doctor to me via PM, so this still doesn’t make sense. Can anybody lend clarity to what just happened?

You did, yes. To be perfectly clear, there’s nothing wrong about your case against Shane, and he is my second-highest suspect for being an Eliminator. It just seems a little too perfect/implausible that he’d be in contact with only the other Elims if he was actually an Eliminator himself, as I feel he’d cover better than that. If I’m wrong and he actually is evil, I’ll give you a shiny unsealed brass metalmind once this game is over. I read Bard’s clarification as “kills, with the exception of the lynch which comes earlier, come last.”

That’s an excellent question, actually. Mostly because your positioning on last cycle’s lynch was less...ideal...than that of Snip or Road? Also simply because I’ve been striking people off my suspect list who I trust for various reasons (roleclaims, votes, etc.), and you’re one of the few I can’t quite cross off yet? You’re definitely less high on the list than Walin or even Shane, though.

I’ve been considering this point myself. Shanerockes seems like far too easy of a lynch; if he was actually an elim, then I doubt he’d immediately claim CadCom as his source of information; it’d be more logical to affiliate himself with a dead villager. Conversely, I’ve been overcoming my scepticism of the Walin lynch. Points against him: 1) Inactivity C2 directly coincides with the lack of Eliminator kill. As Elandera was unable to kill successfully because of the way Order of Actions works (to my understanding, lynch before elim kill), responsibility would have fallen to the other Elim to attempt a kill. Walin was completely inactive at the time, the only player in such a condition, and fits perfectly with the fact that no kill was attempted last cycle. 2) Distancing with Elandera. Last cycle, hours before she was about to die, Elandera poked Walin for inactivity, not even really trying to defend herself. In my view, this served two purposes: to distance from him, and to ping him in the hopes that he would become active enough to submit a kill. 3) Interactions this cycle. He seems to mostly be following my lead with the vote and sticking to the shadows, is trying to stay away from the lynch, and isn’t offering candidates of his own. These are all indicators of Elim-like voting behaviour. I realise it’s later in the cycle but I’d like input, especially from @shanerockes and @Ark1002, my other two suspects currently.

Or Fifth was phishing based on being given false information by a PM contact! I was informed by somebody (who I’m not outing yet, as I’d like to give them a chance to explain their actions) that Snip was attacked by the Deepness and protected, and I was hunting for the doctor in an effort to clear more villagers. As the attack on Snipexe clearly hasn’t happened, I’ll make a post later with my updated thoughts on the situation after somebody gets a highly accusatory PM.

I did not tag Walin, no, as I assumed inactivity, and frankly, having thought he was the Deepness, I saw no reason to encourage them to be active and start killing people. Obviously this was a faulty assumption, and I apologise to Walin for assuming the worst of him, but it made sense based on the logic I had at the time. I’ll PM you with further details.

...alright, I can mostly accept that, Devotary. I’m still a little curious about your hedging with Elandera, but I’m prepared to accept shanerockes as a candidate and then lynch you next cycle if we’re wrong about him. I’d really like you to more specifically address why you passively defended Elandera so much yesterday, though.

I would much rather get the Eliminator than the Deepness. As no kill was made by the Deepness last night (unless a doctor wants to tell somebody about an attack they blocked (preferably by PM)), we can assume that the Deepness is inactive; as Shqueeves is dead, that means Walin is our most likely Deepness. Since we have his identity fairly pinned, and as he’s likely inactive, he doesn’t concern me. I’m a lot more worried about our final Eliminator, as that’s how we’re actually going to win or lose this game; we don’t need to kill the Deepness to win, only the Elims. Discounting myself, there are six possible choices for this Eliminator, which I’ll run through in no particular order: Roadwalker: One of the least likely IMO. Unless he’s bussing his teammates very hard, I don’t see him as a possibility, and the fact that both CadCom and Elandera tried to get him killed points me towards the idea that they either wanted him dead, or want us to be paranoid of him. (Either way, @Roadwalker, mind shooting me a PM if you’re not storing Zinc this cycle?) Shanerockes: Confirmed contact from two known Eliminators to back up his story makes me apprehensive, but I doubt he would be explicitly honest about something like this unless he was village. It would be easy to say he received the information from one of the (numerous) dead villagers without incurring suspicion, though I do find it odd that the information was essentially passed between two Eliminators. @shanerockes, if you could, do you mind fully divulging what exactly happened with your PMs to the thread, including what kind of information you were passing and why? That may help clear some things up. Itiah: An interesting case. He cast a vote for Devotary early in the turn, which seemed a little odd, but after examining Devotary myself I’ll admit she doesn’t look very clean. I’m minded to trust Itiah for this vote; in addition, he seems active, and has been generally providing good analysis. Snip/Ark: I’m lumping these two together because they sealed the vote on Elandera, and I mostly trust them for that (Snip more than Ark, however). Ark’s decision to go after Shanerockes this round is a little odd, but I don’t have any particular reason to distrust them, so for now village read on both. Devotary: My main suspect. She was a key voter in the C1 lynch of CadCom, being, interestingly enough, one of the two votes on Elandera before the end of the cycle. I think she was involved in the plot to tie the lynch, for a number of reasons: 1) Distancing. As an Elim, Devotary generally doesn’t like to appear suspicious by voting on villagers, and will often lurk and wait to cast votes until the end of the turn. In typical fashion, she did so C1, providing the second vote on Elandera after me. 2) Timing. As she knows generally when I go to sleep, and is also aware that the cycle ends when I am asleep, she likely saw my vote on the Elandera lynch a permanent fixture, and therefore it was safe to add her own, knowing there would likely be only two votes, an ideal situation for Elandera and CadCom to manufacture a tied lynch. In addition, from my recollection her sleep schedule lined up well enough so that she’s awake when the cycle ends, so she’d be around to shift her vote accordingly if there were any unwanted developments. 3) Lack of surprise. When I floated my theory about elim!Elandera trying to tie the lynch, she hedged against it but said that she could see it as a possibility, but still defended Elandera without fully committing. This reads very much like an Eliminator trying to save a teammate while not fully committing to a defence, knowing that it would sink them. Most damning, however, is that Devotary did not vote or post after my vote on Elandera, despite lurking for the remainder of the cycle, even after I tagged her. Another Eliminator strategy she favours is sticking to the shadows in key moments, but I did catch her on the Shard multiple times. Now I wish I’d taken screenshots to prove my point, but I ended up forgetting. Despite that, however, Devotary is the most suspicious player remaining.

I’ve not said anything recently because I believe I’ve made out my case, but the majority of people haven’t voted yet. As such, with my apologies: @Ark1002,@I think I am here., @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Walin, @Roadwalker, @Shqueeves, @Snipexe, @shanerockes, your commentary on recent developments, and an updated vote, would be appreciated.

This isn’t the case; a vote for Elandera would have given him a 3-1 lead in the votes, and assuming no vote manipulation would have secured Elandera’s lynch. Instead, he voted off-wagon an hour before the cycle’s closing, leaving his fate in the village’s hands, which no Eliminator consciously aims to do. If village!Elandera was up for the lynch, CadCom could have easily secured her death, ensured that his own life would be saved, and mainly avoided suspicion (Elandera was still a pretty popular lynch candidate) in one fell swoop. Instead, he votes completely off-wagon on Roadwalker, an already unpopular target, leaving Elandera only one vote in the lead. Wonder how she could create a tie? By voting! Again, CadCom would have seen a village!Elandera lurking, by Elandera’s own admission in a PM she sent me, and would presumably take into account that she might vote on him in self-preservation; in this scenario, again, CadCom’s best bet is to widen the gap between himself and the next lynch candidate. Unless he was completely oblivious to the fact that I’d switched my vote from Road to Elandera, he has no reason not to vote on village!Elandera here, and the fact that he didn’t raises enormous red flags. I’ll admit that Elandera’s actions are less clear-cut, but if she’s going to save herself by creating a tie, elim!Elandera is better off distancing from CadCom than casting herself under a lot of suspicion by pushing a last-second candidate like Roadwalker; that would have smelled a lot like a hammer. (Because it would have been.) Creating the tie with CadCom distances the two, saves both of their lives and wastes a lynch. Consider how the lynch last cycle would have looked without vote manipulation; no death=no information, Elandera might have come under fire for tying up the lynch but could easily claim self-defence, CadCom wouldn’t look very evil at all, and the distancing between the two would have worked. I do acknowledge that village!Elandera also has ample reason to vote for CadCom, which gives me some pause, but ultimately it’s CadCom’s actions that speak the loudest here. The final piece of evidence is the PM CadCom sent me, which (though I was asleep) urged me to vote for Roadwalker over Elandera, while still managing to condemn both.

My initial perception of last cycle’s lynch is that Road and Elandera are certainly not Elims together, and that Elandera is likely a villager barring one specific situation having had occurred, which I’ll lay out here: -CadCom realises he or elim!Elandera will likely be lynched. -Instead of placing his vote on the leading candidate, Elandera, he puts it on a third party, Roadwalker, to avoid one of their team dying. -Elandera can’t vote for Roadwalker after having said that she thought his death on the first cycle back would be unfair. Instead, she votes on CadCom minutes from rollover, putting both at two votes and ensuring that neither will be lynched. CadCom sends a last-second PM to me, distancing from Elandera while heavily implying I should switch to Roadwalker, not Elandera, the current lynch candidate. I...actually could see this. But there’s also the elim!Road scenario, in which CadCom tries last second distancing and helpful!village!Elandera seals the vote. But that still doesn’t explain why CadCom voted on Road and not Elandera, who would have died and prolonged his life by at least a cycle. As for Devotary, I’m seeing her as more of a potential Deepness than an Eliminator, but she’s utilising her favourite Eliminator strategy of waiting to vote until the closing hours of a turn, and seems more focused on mechanics than analysis. That said, I have far less suspicion of her than either Road or Elandera. Finally, Snip’s last set of posts just set my elim alarms ringing for whatever reason. I wouldn’t vote on him, but I’m definitely keeping a closer eye on him For now, Elandera.