OTC

The KR were not founded each desolation - they existed between desolations as well but experienced a surge in membership around the start of each one. The only indicator of length for a desolation that I know of is from Dalinars vision, indicating it had lasted, I think, 10 years? I'm not sure if the specific number of desolations is ever mentioned but if I conservatively say 10, and assuming the 10 year length is average, that's still potentially 100 years of fighting experience. It is unlikely that any survived the whole length every time, but each one would easily have decades of experience. You don't see the benefit of keeping what would traditionally be the largest force of effective enemy soldiers from obtaining shard plate? There are a limited number of honor spren. While they are bonded to KR who aren't able to progress, they are not bonded to KR who can progress and become more effective.

So, Heavenly Ones, who have been around for millennia fighting the KR, would probably have a solid understanding of what a each order is, what they can do, and probably also what oaths they need to say to progress. Since none of the current crop of Windrunners have plate yet, they would know exactly where they are up to in their progression. I think they are acting the way they are at the moment to deliberately stunt the progression of Windrunners to the next level where they will be a much greater threat. While I'm not sure what the 4th oath will end up being, I think they are playing off the psychology of those who traditionally end up as WR to slow down or prevent any of them attaining the 4th path.

Lopens deal seems to be wanting the powers for the benfits. The riches, the women, and the status. Up to the end of Oathbringer following Kaladins lead and embracing the ideals of protecting others has also been a path that has been the most beneficial to him. I think his third oath will be putting protection of someone vs a personal reward or benefit - something that he really wants - and choosing to protect. Something like 'I will protect others, even when if it comes at a personal cost.'

I know that warriors are considered the lowest rung of Shin society, but do we actually know what proportion or the population they are? Not disagreeing with your assessment, I just don't recall reading that, and there is so little that has really been revealed about the Shi society and culture. For all we know they could have the most effective army in the cosmere, with or without shards, they just choose not to use it. Unlikely, but we don't have any clear statements to rule it out. I would say there is a difference between accepting a Valhalla type event is occurring involving the worst creatures from the local mythology, and accepting that a local aggressor has developed a new weapon and is embarking on continental conquest. Edit: Additionally, the Shin sitting aside doing nothing now that the desolations have commenced could be because they do not have a cache of massively powerful weapons, we don't actually know what is happening in Shinovar right now.

I know, I said hundreds OR thousands. I meant the hypothetical army with newly forged shards thats Szeth was referring to conquering the continent.

My mistake on the location. Brain not function good before coffee. I'm not opposed to this idea, a lot of it appeals to me, but Szeths thoughts on the continent being over run by Shards if they can be manufactured just clash with it for me. The Shin may be isolationist, but I can't see them standing idol while a major threat to them approaches and takes over the continent, if they have a way to oppose it. Eventually everyone would have one, yes, but there is time and expense associated with it. Not everyone was holding a half shard when Szeth was going assassinating, because they are expensive and difficult to produce. The time taken to build the theorized hundreds or thousands to match the proposed Shin stash would not be insignificant.

In tWok during the assassination Szeth comments that if Jah Kaved is successful in manufacturing new shards that the whole continent would be speaking Alethi. This would be a strange comment if the Shin had a massive stash of shards and trained bearers to fight back against it. Though Szeth could just be ignorant of the shards.

I have been considering the nature of the Fused, and I have come to the belief that they did not originate from Listeners, but from humans, and are in fact the original Voidbringer humans. When speaking to Dalinar about the origins of the fused, the Stormfather said the following A few important things here. One, the Stormfater admits that his knowledge of what happened is unreliable. Two, the nature of the base creatures is not specified. Three, whatever it was was already powered up by Odium. As far as I can see, he never explicitly says the fused are dead parshmen, he always says souls of the dead. Next bit from the Stormfather This seems to be widely interpreted as it being the souls of powerful Parshman that became Spren to and then became Fused. I did the same, initally. However, unless I have missed something, we have no evidence that Parshmen become Spren upon death. When the Listeners talk about their Spren, they are referring to the one occupying their Gemheart. I beleive that this particular passage refers to the fact that the fused bonded with parshmen, now long dead, and became their leaders and top soldiers through the powers granted by the forms. Even Ulim speaking to Venli does not refer to the fused as being the souls of Parshmen. I consider that the Fused can use surges as further evidence that the began as Humans, as it has been repeated often in the books that the parshmen were not granted surges. So, my theory on the events that led to this. The first Human refugees fled to Roshar from their homeworld after destroying it with surges. They abided by the rules set out by the dawnsingers, and were being rehabilitated from Odium by Honor and Cultivation. Odium finds out, he sends human surgebinders to the new world, cue first desolation. Odium has limited troops to use, and his humans that he was counting on side with the parsh instead of him, now strongly tied to Honor. Without external reinforcement Odium gets creative. He sees the Parsh bond with Spren through the gemheart, and starts converting his fallen soldiers to "spren" that forcefully take over the Parsh when they open themselves to new Spren. They then demonstrate ther new powers, and convince/force the other Parsh to take a voidspren into their gemheart. The humans catch on to what has happened and fight back. Any unconviced Parsh are now convinced, and take in voidspren, further desolations occur. The whole timem the 'Voidbringers' are the same, human invaders turned to malicious spren occupying Parsh. Thoughts?

That's a good point. I had always interpreted that as referring to lashing during storms, rather than the dream experiences that Kaladin had. I considered those to be somewhat related to to Dalinar's visions, in relation to how they work rather than the content. Kaladin was even walking around during one and had to be restrained by bridge 4 so he wouldn't go out in the Highstorm. Really though, all I've got is speculation on this and the part you quoted suggests that it may just be a Windrunner ability that hasn't been explored fully yet. I actually really like that explanation of the mechanics of how Adhesion was used to create the effect that it did, but as AluminumGnat already mentioned, Syl commenting on it marks it as unusual. We already have examples of surges functioning differently for fused, why not for a bond made with a Spren that has an unique heritage? It is possible that Syl is just unaware of this use of the surge, though Spren knowledge has seemed pretty comprehensive and reliable in relation to what has historically happened with surge development and abilities. It could also just be Kaladin just fluked onto a new use for Adhesion that no previous Windrunner had stumbled upon. I would consider that unlikely, personally. I acknowledge that there are other explanations, but I like the idea of Syls status as the Stormfathers only surviving pre-splinter child granting Kaladin storm specific applications of the Windrunner surges. Thanks for the warm welcome.

Not sure if any of this has been brought up before, but I was thinking about the new crop of Radiants, and I think at least 4 have developed or will develop atypical surges, or expanded scope for their surges. The obvious two are Dalinar and Renarin. Dalinar is the first to bond the Stormfather since he became a splinter of the Honor, and the conclusion of Oathbringer shows him speaking an oath which, based on the reaction of the Stormfather, was different to what had previously been accepted, and then creating a perpendicularity and super charging the other Radiants with stormlight, which is a not a typical Bondsmith power. Remain has bonded a corrupted Spren, and is being granted some type of future sight, instead of lightweaving. I get the feeling that this will be further explored and developed. The two possibly less obvious are Kaladin and Venli. Kaladin has shown 2 powers that I do not think are standard for a Windrunner, riding the storm in his dreams, and creating a calm in the middle of a Highstorm. I think these powers are due to his bond with Syl, and Syls heritage. We know that Spren are created by other Spren, who as far as we have seen can only produce more of the same type. Honor Spren had been created directly by Honor, but Syl is the only surviving Honor Spren to be created by the Stormfather before he recieved the Splinter of Honor. I think this has influenced Syl, and the way in which the surges her bond grants can be used. Venli is just pure speculation at this point. Surges being used by the Singers appear to function differently, but that could also be a stormlight vs voidlight difference.