Ookla the Heretical

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About Ookla the Heretical

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    Devotary, Lord of Heretics

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  1. Having the Seekers scan those adjacent to themselves on the player list for the first two cycles can prevent overlap, with the obvious downside that following this strategy exclusively means that the Seeker's identity will be narrowed down considerably if the Seer is outed by a scan. Since I just realized by actually looking at the rules for the Seeker that they can only determine role, not alignment, this downside is not as significant as I had earlier assumed. This also means Smoking is less harmful for the village. I still would not recommend Smoking others at this stage of the game, but I am no longer as willing to say that anyone being Smoked N2 or beyond is almost certainly evil. The cycles close at 6:30 PM, EST.
  2. The issues are that night kills are undetectable if the target survives and kills are not differentiated, so we won't be able to tell who survived the night, much less how. A single night kill could mean conversion/inactive Seer + Coinshot kill, or Seer kill + inactive Coinshot/Thug extra life/Lurcher protection/Seer extra life. No night kills suggests conversion/inactive Seer + inactive Coinshot/Thug extra life/Lurcher protection/Seer extra life. I believe it would help if the Coinshot committed to killing someone every night, prioritising those who survived lynches. Asking Thugs who survived the night to claim, and asking Lurchers to abstain from protecting until further notice, may help with this problem, but could easily cause worse issues. I'll have to read through LG39 again, but one of the more notable pieces of information is that the Seer began with four atium beads in a 25 player game. In this 19 player game, I would lean more towards three starting atium beads.
  3. If the Blight fails to pierce a layer of defense, its attack increases by 3, e.g. 2-5-8-11. To prevent Ring 4 from falling, we'd need 5+ #sabotage defense actions.
  4. Snipexe would claim in the Fal Dara doc and reveal his identity there. If Snipexe is Aginor and not in the Fal Dara doc(and thus cannot claim in-doc), then a teammate would have to spend the rest of the game pretending to be Snipexe in the doc, which I believe would be unsustainable. There doesn't seem to be any difference between votes removed by Aginor and votes removed by a defense/sabotage action. Since the majority of players will be taking one of the latter two actions, it would not have been too risky for Aginor to remove a vote. The first valid vote was cast ~6 hours before rollover and the second ~4 hours before rollover, so it is possible Aginor wasn't around for that. Snipexe showed up as online in time to see at least one vote on him, and attempting to narrow down the vote manipulators by observing vote times is not always successful. Devotary of Spontaneity
  5. Probably the fastest solution here is just to ask @Ookla the Skeptical how he survived. He should be able to prove that he's part of the Fal Dara Warriors should that be the case, which would prove nothing about his alignment. If he is not part of the Fal Dara Warriors, either he is Rand or Rand will kill him when we reach the Eye. Killing a potential Aginor!Snipexe before any Creature summons would likely require Rand to claim. That would save a few lives, obligate the Green Man and/or Perrin to protect a proven Rand for the rest of the game, and most costly, waste a lynch. With a maximum of eight lynches and a minimum five elim lives, we have very few lynches to spare. Since we are utterly helpless to act on any suspicions at night, any claiming should wait until the beginning of Day 2. Devotary of Spontaneity
  6. It is a best case scenario; the Blight is more likely to overcome the Eye by Night 7 or Day 8 than Night 8. If we go for a full scale defense I believe the progression I outlined earlier is achievable. It's essential for Rand to use his Strike action during the day when there are Creepers about, the Green Man should be protecting Rand at night to make sure he doesn't die, and Moiraine's abilities can be useful, but starting Night 2 when the Blight will likely begin to do damage, most other villagers will be best off submitting a defense action.
  7. Your work and Fura's had indicated that there were most likely eight villagers with no roles other than potentially being in docs. We know there are four members of Moiraine's circle, so if the number of members of the other two docs are roughly the same(four and four), the presence of roleless would require an equivalent number of unique villagers to be part of the anonymous docs. Knowing that the entire elim team has a possibility to be in an anonymous doc makes it less likely that a given unique villager will be part of a doc, while increasing the likely number of roleless villagers.
  8. Does this mean the two Forsaken also have the Concealment passive, allowing them to be in the anonymous docs? That would make it almost certain that there's at least one elim in each doc, and reduce the necessity to have unique villagers in the anonymous docs. Bard did claim before the game started that he planned to make the entirety of all his posts in character. While short, his post is in keeping with this prior claim. We have an exciting two votes so far with less than two hours left in the cycle. Aginor can negate votes, which would put us down to one vote and possibly none if the other voter had their vote negated by defense or sabotage. It may be worthwhile for Moiraine to do what Aes Sedai do best, and murder one of our number with her vote manipulation power. At this point, everyone has either posted or been mentioned, and it's too late in the cycle for a poke vote. It's likely that I won't vote this cycle and let Moiraine make a decision unless something comes up. Devotary of Spontaneity
  9. With eight players roleless villagers except for any docs they might be in, a presumed three elims who can be part of docs, and four confirmed members of Moraine's circle, the number of roleless should be approximately equal to the number of unique villagers present in group docs if the number of members in Moraine's Circle is representative of the number of players in the other two anonymous docs. @Ookla the White-Cloaked, @Ookla the Rogue, if Padan Fain or an Agent are part of the Fal Dara Warriors doc, could they have an extra life? Fal Dara Keep. Darktouched. Blightcursed. And the last place Rhodin had seen his first-brother alive. His clan had acted as though Fenduin was fulfilling his toh by choosing to combat the Blight. At twelve years old Rhodin hadn't known any better. No male Aiel channeler had ever returned from the Blight in thousands of years, but Rhodin was sure that his eldest first-brother could defeat the Dark One. Together, Rhodin and his mother watched an Aes Sedai escort Fenduin into the midst of the Blight. A day later, she returned, but Fenduin never did. Devotary of Spontaneity
  10. We should be able to defend the 1st ring Day 1, Night 1, and Day 2. I don't anticipate being able to protect the ring Night 2, where the Blight does 11 damage, two sabotage actions could potentially happen, and several village roles will be doing other actions. We should be able to prevent the third ring from falling that night, and the following day the Blight damage drops to X+1=6, which is blockable. The 9 damage Night 3 will likely go through partially, but if we mount a firm defense that night and Day 4 where the Blight does 8 damage, we should be able to preserve the 4th ring until Night 4, the first time its effect is useful since creatures cannot be summoned until Night 3 and creature summons come after creature kills. If we can prevent the 5th ring from falling that night, we're in position to use the benefit of the 5th ring where defense is doubled during the day in exchange for vote negation. A successful defense there means the 5th ring should last until Night 5, which means we can defend the 6th ring Day 6 where votes cannot be negated. We can't stop the Blight at this point, so it will do 12 damage Day 6, then 13 damage Night 6 to likely destroy the 7th ring, and from there 14,15,16 damage. At that rate, the Blight will destroy the eye by the end of Night 8 at the latest, but by then the game should have already ended. You changed your Discord name to Ookla of Heretics after I had already claimed the name Ookla the Heretical, so I decided to steal your profile picture. I can no longer actually find my original profile picture, but I'll stop using your face on December 19th regardless of whether I find my old one. Devotary of Spontaneity
  11. I, Devotary of Spontaneity, will sign up as Jesorden, a minor noble who renounced their House identity to join the Steel Ministry.
  12. I will sign up as Rhodin, an Aiel with a grudge against the Aes Sedai. Can Padan Fain self-protect? Which traits count as passive for the purpose of his ability? I presume traits like Hardy and would be removed while traits that grant abilities and doc access cannot be removed, but can Padan Fain block contingency actions such as Last Stand and Power of Mashadar? Edit: There doesn't appear to be any actual reason for Fain to self-protect, so that question is moot. Does the Blight's Desperate Assault Ability stacking mean its attack increases by 3 until it finally penetrates the Light defense; e.g. 2+5+8+11... Devotary of Spontaneity
  13. Besides deviations in his post style, the Cadmium lynch was precipitated by Orlok asking everyone to vote for Cadmium. As Orlok was tied for the lynch at the time, there was likely an element of self-preservation in that push to concentrate votes on one player. Reminder to any seekers that might be out there that while a result of Roleless Noble might mean that your target is actually a roleless noble, it could also mean that your target was smoked. They had been wrong. Miomounder had been innocent, of being a Spiked anyway. Such a thing could never have happened under the leadership of the Lord Ruler, Tessona reflected bitterly. With his Allomancy and his ability to tell truth from fiction, all the Spiked intruders would have been caught and executed by now. Yet another reason to long for his return. Politicking and shifting alliances were all very well, but protection from threats both internal and external was sorely lacking in this new era. Nobles should not have to worry about being killed in broad daylight by their own peers. Nostalgia wouldn't solve their current problems though, so Tessona set out from her House's quarters and began to walk towards Keep Heron.
  14. While Joe probably was ninja'd by Orlok's post, I would assume that when Joe went back to edit his post 38 minutes later, he noticed that Orlok had voted on Fura. More importantly, you are CadCom, and as such really should know why you voted on Joe. Was it a defense of Fura or not? As no house can win if the Spiked do, I would consider a village Coinshot who made kills for the purpose of ensuring that the most praised player was from their house to be actively opposing their village win condition. As such, I don't anticipate having an issue with Coinshots exclusively targeting members of other houses. Out of the four candidates currently tied for the lynch, I think Cadmium is the most suspicious. Compared to recent games, his posts, especially the more recent ones, seem to be based more on summarizing than analysing. In MR31 and QF34 he provided opinions on the suspicions of various players in addition to summarizing votes. In this game, he appears to be content to respond to the suspicions of others rather than making accusations of his own, which I know is something I do as an elim. Edit: I also have to make a praise vote, so I shall put praise back on Orlok.
  15. Ark/Orlok I'm pretty sure that @Nohadon is voting to assassinate Fifth and praise Steel, and if so Fifth is tied for the lynch for second with lynch votes, with Snipexe in the lead with three(Fifth, Shqueeves, Ark). I'm sort of tempted to vote for Fifth; the jump from 'houses aren't important' to 'coinshots would overly favor particular houses' is noteworthy. I'm not sure what elim!Fifth would gain from convincing the thread that coinshots don't exist, though. I also don't like how @Shqueeves 'randomly' voted on someone who already had a vote. There were four such people at the time, so a random vote would have had a 4/21 chance of landing on one of them. Not implausible, but unlikely enough that if Furamirionind(the previous vote leader) is evil, there's a greater than proportional chance that Shqueeves is as well.