Devotary of Spontaneity

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199 High Prelan


About Devotary of Spontaneity

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    Devotary, Devourer of Sheep

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  1. Drake survives and claims not-Thug. Stick brought up a Thug!Drake last night, and Drake's response also seemed to indicate that he wasn't a Thug. I don't think an elim!Stick would have attacked village!Drake if the elims actually thought he was a Thug. The attack also seems to indicate that the elims preferred to take Drake out now instead of trying to lynch him after I die, which is an interesting choice to make. Xino's death has to be a Coinshot, or the Kandra does have a kill and decided to be helpful. While the death makes the Coinshot more likely, I still think that having a Coinshot would be at the expense of the Kandra having a kill, which would make their win condition overly difficult. The main things I notice about Xino's interactions are that Aonar indicated suspicion of him for posting enough to avoid the filter without offering opinions, and Lum then saying such behaviour is not uncommon for Xino. Other interactions were Aman, Araris, Ventyl, and Fifth prodding him to contribute more/cast a vote, and I may well have missed others. I would say this leads to a significant village lean for Aonar. While it is true that Xino has a similar style in village games, there has to be a slide towards the elim end for Lum. Two roleless players down, which definitively proves that this game is not role madness and decreases the likelihood of doubled roles, including Lurcher. The existence of a roleless elim makes a four person elim team more likely, and also makes the D1 discussion about whether everyone has a role potentially pertinent. Let's see. Rath assumes role madness, and then me, Drake, Aman, and Aonar(in that order) question that assumption. Drake actually votes for Rath temporarily before removing the vote. If it's elim!Rath saying this, it would have to be a long term investment that would only pay off if Xino, or another roleless elim if one exists, dies before Rath does.
  2. So our current plans are: Throw a molotov cocktail: Sean Shoot them: Manny/Li(rifle), Bill(pine cone) Cut them to pieces: Gustavus(sword), Leon(machete), Murder(knife) Eat them: Lorenzo Bury the remains: Ian Burn the remains: Friedrich "This is not necessarily consistent, and may include actions that were not intended and may have omitted actions that were. The first three are means of dealing with the Zombies and can all be used. The latter three are means of disposing of the remains, and might be more difficult to use all of them. There are also actions intended for future survival, such as building fortifications and handing out ammunition(Tanky) or handing out wooden spears(Lachlan)".
  3. "We don't know how Zombies organise, but it seems like a bad idea to let these two let the rest of the horde where we are. Back home, we never bothered to find out whether Zombies had any vital organs that could be affected by guns. We never had access to many firearms, and it was never necessary to pick off Zombies at long range; just to prevent them from entering our town. Up close, it was far more effective to cut them into pieces with blades or crush them oblivion with heavy machinery. Regardless of whether we plan to shoot the Zombies, and I don't think we should unless we have some way to smother the sound of a gunshot, we'll still have to engage them physically. With my armour, I am willing to be one of that latter group. Meanwhile, if we want to bury their dismembered corpses, we'll have to start digging now".
  4. This is where we've gotten into trouble the past two days. The lynch should not be a binary option that gets locked in early in the cycle. We should be able to avoid situations where clearing one person up for the lynch automatically means voting for the other, and clearing both people means being unable to prevent a village read from dying. We cannot afford to have people vote and vanish. By the time Fura claimed five hours before rollover, the votes were 6-3 including Fura's self-vote. This is the point when believing Fura innocent leads to joining/creating a lynch you support more. Maybe that's me, at which point you would state why you think that I, specifically, am evil. If you think someone else is more likely to be evil, say your maintained your suspicion of V/E Stick and Fura after deciding to trust the latter, or you thought Straw's vote was suspicious, or anything else, this is the opportunity to start a new lynch and see who does or does not jump on it. In particular, I don't think elims would jump onto a new lynch on a villager except to protect an elim from being killed. I realise it's very unfair to put this on you personally when there were many people who saw Fura's role claim and decided that whatever village points that claim and lack of counter-claim earned was insufficient to budge their votes, especially because you were pressed for time near the end of the cycle. It's also hypocritical, as I was one of those people who didn't shift in the direction of an entirely separate lynch, and because my general voting pattern is to withhold my vote until near the end of the cycle and then reinforce a viable lynch I agree with. This is more of an idealised voting strategy that I keep falling short of. Taking sides is useful, especially if the sides are of different alignments. In this case, I would fully expect to find elims on both sides of the lynch, particularly among those whose main stated justification for voting was a belief that the other candidate wasn't evil. If everyone could be counted on to be active enough to vote in the last part of the cycle, it's more useful to form a wider array of lynch possibilities that can then be consolidated at the end. This opens up multiple new sides of the lynch, and forces people to vote based on specific suspicions. It also doesn't work properly if people vote partway through the cycle and then don't come back as new evidence surfaces. Behavior becomes a playstyle when it is consistent across multiple games regardless of alignment. I am unwilling to commit to suspicions formed by looking at things people say in a vacuum. I can't do what Aman did with Fura and I where he looks at each post individually and pieces the fragments together. If someone never communicates with other players I don't have anything. I need actual evidence like interactions with dead players or obviously opposed/synchronised views between living players or role analysis, otherwise I'll end up not voting or just bandwagoning on someone late in the cycle.
  5. It's very easy to defend the innocent when both candidates are blameless. Still, it does make sense that the elims would have tried to defend elim!Drake D1. Failed vote manipulation is possible, but I have no evidence that Fifth or Araris were Smoked D1, and even if they were it merely opens up the possibility of Drake being evil. There's been no public news of a Lurcher claiming to have protected Aman, but perhaps there will be. While you are able to do that, your vote will not count until the day turn. One extra mislynch should be worth clearing up the mess this past day has caused.
  6. "I wouldn't expect Zombies to be great swimmers, but not having to breath is a huge advantage. Even if we destroy the bridge, the more determined Zombies would be able to cross the river without being swept too far downstream. Doing so would disrupt the horde if we make it that far, so long as we're willing to accept making it more difficult for future refugees to reach safety. We won't be able to reach the river until we deal with these two first." Ah ha! Vindication for arbitrarily deciding that Leon lives in Austria.
  7. Sadly, very few government officials had read Elantris. Those who had were almost able to convince their superiors that the best solution was to let all the Zombies wander into the big cities lured by the prospect of fresh meat, and then trap them there. Further suggestions to dismantle the military and allow merchants with private armies to rule the survivors were met with ridicule. As a result, no part of this genius plan was implemented. Almost 1/3 of the way to our maximum player count. How far can we get before Alvron decides to make us stop running? The Zombies could catch us at any moment... Oh look, they found us! Thankfully, a mere two Zombies would be easy to deal with. All Leon had to do was break out his steamroller and it would all be over. Leon started patting his pockets for keys before realising that he was not at home and this group of refugees he'd caught up with definitely didn't have a steamroller. Leon trusted his machete and leather armour against a mere two Zombies, but there had to be a better way to deal with them.
  8. And so we see the downsides of forming two parallel lynch trains early in the cycle; it's really hard to get off them. While lynches on Stick, Sart, or Drake may or may not have had merit, they didn't deserve to be crushed down into nothingness simply because there were only two viable lynches in the later part of the cycle. They were right about Fura, at least, which brings them up to 50%.
  9. I did address those two posts, although I'm not entirely sure why Sart asked as it was clear from my actions what the answer was. Drake made a number of other posts at me that I have responded to as well. I see Sart has expanded on his original vote, which is nice. Wanting to keep the lynch close to see what sort of last hour changes and vote manipulation take place isn't an unreasonable strategy in the case where one is uncertain of which option is the better lynch. @Sart, why is my lack of a vote different from the other people who chose not to vote last cycle?
  10. Given that Ventyl prefaced their vote by indicating a lack of suspicion on Fura and Aman, and since the vote tally was 3-2 against Fura at the time, I'm fairly sure it was a reaction to Fura getting votes. Both Sart and Ventyl have been around and must have seen me quote them, but neither have responded. Ah, I see, in addition to villagers not knowing who to vote for, elims have more reason to vote a specific way and commit to firmer reads when the lynch outcome matters. The first time you asked me how voting relates to alignment, and I told you. The second time you asked me for reads, and most of those were village leans. The third time you asked me for suspects, and I gave you one main suspect, one lean elim, and three lean village. I am not trying to block you out, I'm just not very good at player analysis. What more did Fura give you? I do not want to be lynched for my playstyle, so I shall vote for Fura and continue the grand tradition of Rath, Fura and I voting consecutively.
  11. Ah yes. Two names starting with F in a row. Knowing peoples roles only starts being helpful when it leads to alignments, and it's difficult to learn alignments from roles without coordination that requires knowing alignment to function properly. One can learn alignment from roles, things like getting an elim lynched with vote manipulation, having a Coinshot shoot an elim, a Hazekiller/Lurcher blocking an elim kill, and assuming that since one village Mistborn died, there aren't any others. You're also likely to give role information to the elims unless you start with a solid trust base. If you're counting the time when you asked me how D1 voting patterns relate to alignment, then sure, you've asked me three different times. I've given you answers, three different times. I am not going to give you concrete suspicions. I will always phrase things in terms of possibilities and leans. That's just the type of player I am. I am very uncertain about many things regardless of alignment. You then go on to describe uncertainty as a village sentiment. The lynch is now effectively tied, as it would be really easy for Fura to switch over, which I would say is a relatively strong measure of uncertainty. Do you think it's more village to have concrete suspicions, or to be uncertain about suspicions?
  12. Attempting to find out PM contacts appears to be a common thing with Fura this game. I have heard an explanation for why this, namely that knowing who people are in contact with helps determine where people are getting information from and gives hints as to role and alignment. I'm more towards the PM safety side of the spectrum than Fura is, although I did end up trading some PM contacts. The Kandra win condition as originally written was nearly impossible, as it involved winning a 1v1v1 by killing both remaining players simultaneously. Forcing us to kill the Kandra opens up the possibility of killing all the elims and then still losing to the Kandra, which wasn't an option previously. I think the closest thing we've had to a SK like the one Aman describes is are your Quicksilver from LG37, which could switch bodies by killing but could still be stopped by the lynch and outside kills. Presumably, your elim tells would be different from your village tells, and being rushed would serve to amplify that difference. What tells do you think have been indicative of you being a villager? Do you mean that you didn't consider that a Lurcher would reach out to you D2? Presumably, if you were suspicious of those who contacted you D2, you were considering that they might be elims. Stick shifting reads towards elim!Aman and village!Fifth if Fura is an elim, and the other way if Fura is village seems reasonable, especially as I'm not seeing any way for Fura and Fura to both be evil. Usually, one PM per turn means an elim wouldn't want to waste it on someone who died. In this game, it's a bit more likely, as a Tineye could scan you and see that you were in contact with Aman before he died, and you also told people that you had sent Aman a PM N1. One lost PM isn't too much of a price to pay if you can point to that as evidence for why you didn't kill Aman. Attempting to kill a village!Aman for a role is also possible, but would be rather hasty.
  13. I suppose I am the main alternative to Fura at this point, though I'm not entirely sure why. I understand why Drake is voting for me, but not where Sart's vote came from. Which posts are you referring to? This time for sure I'll be around to change the lynch. Not wanting a lynch is more dependent on opinions in past games. If someone doesn't have a history of wanting to avoid D1 lynches, or is far more likely to do so when evil or good, then it could become AI. Some types of ambivalence are NAI, such as posts made solely to avoid the filter. Popping in to notice the state of the lynch and then not stating any opinions is more elim leaning. There's probably room there for further clarification. Wanting to have a lynch but not seeing any good targets has the most bearing on alignment, though that doesn't mean it's clear which way. I've cast tie-breaking/tie making votes on v-v, v-e and e-e lynches as elim and villager*, often making the wrong choice as a villager in a v-e scenario. *Technically village-aligned SK for that last one. The closer to rollover and the less chance of actually getting an alternative lynch, the lower bearing wanting a lynch but not having any great options has on alignment. Elims will make the "wrong" choice more often though, so seeing the alignment of those up for the lynch does help to some degree. I placed myself in the 'would prefer not to have a lynch' category, though that was mostly dependent on the lynch being between you and Ark, with the only other options being Walin and suicide. Not voting D1 didn't turn out well for me in Qf37 or MR35, so it would be nice if I could stop doing that.
  14. There was a fairly common sentiment towards the end of D1 that there weren't any good lynch targets, with only one vote in the last twenty hours of the cycle. Some people wanted a lynch but didn't have any clear targets(Fifth, Ventyl, Rath, Stick apparently), some people would have preferred not to have a lynch(Aman, I would say Fura fits in here, I would rather have had a no-lynch than a lynch decided by so few players and for largely arbitrary reasons) and others were ambivalent(Lum, all the people who posted but didn't vote or indicate any sort of suspicion/lack of suspicion). I responded to concerns about my D1 post because people were interpreting it to mean that I supported late cycle lynches to ensure that players couldn't burn pewter to survive the lynch. As this was not what I had been trying to communicate, I clarified what my actual opinions were, that we should not be trying to sneak lynches past pewter burners. I would consider breaking a tie in the last half hour of the cycle to count as a last hour lynch. With presumably our only village Mistborn dead, it's more likely that someone who survives a lynch is evil, but that doesn't mean we should lynch people without giving them time to defend themselves. I tend to focus on game analysis rather than player analysis early in the game because I'm better at the former. I tend not to have any solid leads in the first few cycles, and will rarely share my unfounded opinions. An unknown Lurcher who can soak up a kill is a nice thing to have, and if there's an elim Hazekiller, that Lurcher could easily be killed. If Aman was protected by a village Lurcher, it's not particularly important for Aman to know who it was, though that Lurcher may well want to let someone know they valued Aman's continued existence over their own if Aman was about to be lynched for surviving a kill. It is true that Aman's worries about elim Tineyes are an overreaction, as Tineyes don't see when PMs were created and thus won't be able to tell when someone PMd Aman unless he was scanned last night and this day. What would elim!Fura be covering up if the elims tried and failed to kill village!Aman? I've seen elims be overly enthusiastic about a villager surviving a kill, but it's not really a cover-up if Aman is village unless the elims decided to go with Aonar's possibility, which I feel sure has a name other than Wounded Buffalo Gambit. Other than role based reasons(being the Lurcher who protected Aman, Seeking Aman as a Thug or Lurcher, trying and failing to kill Aman, etc.) why do you believe that Aman's survival was not due to elim protection?
  15. The Zombies had barely affected life in Kaprun. When the dead began to rise, the town had dislocated themselves from the power grid and switched to their own local power. Inhabitants began to wear bite-proof clothing, typically leather or denim. Most Zombies were pretty lazy, and didn't venture up this high above sea level. Those that did were quickly driven off by the electrified fences, armed guards, and wide assortment of construction vehicles. At first, Kaprun had welcomed refugees, so long as they were kept in quarantine for a week or so to prove they weren't infected. As the number of refugees increased, Kaprun had to expand their borders, opening up sister towns nearby. For months, the inhabitants of Kaprun and it's satellites had lived as they did before the Zombies came, save for decreased communication with the outside world. Two weeks ago, one of the outer towns, had gone dark. Efforts to communicate with the inhabitants of Lerfea had failed. Leon and a few others from had been sent to investigate. The fences stood tall, all the buildings were undamaged, and the windmills spun freely, but everyone was dead, and the horde was quite eager to share this condition with the tasty, tasty humans. Cut off from the route back to Kaprun, ran into the town for safety. Lerfea, like Kaprun and all the other towns, had a quarantine facility in the centre of town. The expedition leader unlocked the door with a key entrusted to them by the leaders of Kaprun, and the group walked into the quarantine area. Standing by the entrance, flanked by Zombies, was a tall man leveling a rifle at the newcomers. The expedition leader's cry of warning was cut off by a gunshot, the bullet easily piercing the tough leather armour. was already running by the time the second member of the party went down with a bullet in the skull. They had been prepared for Zombies wielding makeshift weapons, not for a gun-wielding human who didn't care that they weren't Zombies. Panicked, Leon hid in the first place he could think of, a well nearby the quarantine facility. Leon hid there for hours, desperately hoping he wouldn't be found. When he finally got the courage to climb up the rope and out of the well, he saw the horde of Zombies marching towards Kaprun. Leon began to run. He would have to warn the nearest town, before the man and his army of Zombies could destroy them.