Devotary of Spontaneity

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208 Gyorn


About Devotary of Spontaneity

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    Devotary, Devourer of Sheep

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  1. If we'd bribed pretty much anyone other than you to vote for Drake, we would have been able to kill you. I don't make very good choices when under time pressure, and I felt it would be better to pretend the elims weren't interested in saving Rae by not moving Fifth's vote. We didn't think there would be any village vote manipulation, having somehow forgotten that Fifth likely wouldn't have seen you retract your vote. I wouldn't have had any boxings if Joe had let us bribe multiple people in one turn, but as it turned out you would have gotten a mere three boxings for killing me.
  2. If Fifth's bribe didn't go through, Venture's might have, which would have caused you to die. Having upwards of thirty boxings suddenly appear in the store could have been quite a game changer, especially as there would still have been three elims still alive had the coin flip favoured us. How did you know Rae was evil? And did you think I was a villager?
  3. If Striker hadn't wanted to use the ledger, he wouldn't have announced that there was one in his possession. Once he claimed to have one, he was obligated to use it. Once again, we come to the closing hours of the cycle with a flimsy lynch. It also doesn't look like the governor vote is going to go through. Crossing out the minimal actives/those who haven't shown up for a while leaves a fairly short list. Eliminating Drake, Fura, and I pares it down to a shortlist of six players. ArraenaeElanderaFifth ScholarSnipexeStrikerEZYoung Bard We haven't gotten a scan of Bard, but Kidpen going for Bard over Fifth at 3-1-1 helps my opinion of village!Bard. If Bard is village, Striker has to be as well. ArraenaeElanderaFifth ScholarSnipexe With Ark presumably being a villager and the fact that if Snip was part of Alv's dagger passing conspiracy it would be foolish to use a dagger known to be Snip's, I'm going to avoid voting on Snip at this time. Taking a stand on principle and willingly accepting a lynch also strikes me as village. Of the three remaining players, two of them have votes. Rae solidified lynches on Lum and Kidpen that ensured that one bribe wouldn't be enough to save either of them. An elim!Rae could have done that knowing that no bribery was going to happen, as both Lum especially wouldn't have lasted long had she been saved with vote manipulation. Kidpen might have managed to survive unscathed assuming the elims didn't direct Fura's ledger to him. Rae also almost managed to kill Alv C3, which is a point in her favour if Alv is evil, and more neutral if he's village. Rae obviously has a better opinion of Elandera than I do. I'm not seeing them both be evil though. Also, @Arraenae, the ledger currently in the market is the one Striker used on Lum, and somehow nobody has bought it yet. Being a consistent voice to lynch Gaea and having been bribed could be either a villager who picked correctly or an elim who didn't particularly care if the corrupt constable died/knew there were plans to protect Gaea. The main thing in Fifth's favour is that he probably would be spending more effort on this game were it his first time starting as an elim. The main evidence against him is the vote for Bard and Kidpen choosing to lynch Bard over Fifth when the latter would probably have been easier to kill I've explained the main reasons I'm suspicious of Elandera, so that's where I'm going to put my vote for now. Still, I'd like to have a lynch today, so I might switch if it seems nobody will have at least two votes. Fifth(1): Fura Rae(1): Fifth Elandera(1): Devotary
  4. As part of a suspicion on Elandera, I looked back at cycle 3 to see what was happening with that lynch, and why Elbereth was killed that cycle. Striker had claimed a ledger by that point, and Alv was around to see Striker's final vote, so he should have been a better target than either Elbereth or Elandera for elim!Alv. Village!Alv telling the truth would have had no reason to attack either Elandera or Striker. Elandera started the vote for Alv, but the only people that could be protecting are Rae and Fura. Given that you knew about it, I'm guessing you signed off on Elandera's attempt to steal from Striker C3. What was that supposed to accomplish? In the end, most of what I have against Elandera is voting for Bard over Kidpen and being in a position to know that bribery wouldn't save him. Other than that, nothing major. Araris was pretty persistent in going after Wilson, but he's apparently not going to be around much for awhile. We never did find out why Fifth's vote was moved from Gaea to Joe and he did put on the third vote for Bard. That's why the daggers are only worth using on people whose alignment flip would tell us nothing because they haven't interacted with anyone. There aren't many players who meet that description, and it is true that killing anybody risks having those daggers go up for sale.
  5. Some mixture of preventing a bribe from getting a tied lynch, such a thing would likely have been an attempt to save Rath as he was the only other person who acquired more than one vote, and a selfish desire to acquire boxings. If we did want the game to end more quickly, using those daggers everyone is hoarding would accomplish that goal. The lack of alignment flip makes that strategically less useful; better suited to killing relative inactives who don't have much in the way of connections to other players, but such players tend to be village.
  6. Bugsy, I suppose, if you're sure.
  7. Rath(2): Fura, Drake Fifth(1): Rae Elandera(1): Striker Bugsy(1): Elandera And all of a sudden, there's a lynch on Rath. I would be willing to join the vote on Elandera, but it doesn't seem like that's happening? Anyone willing to explain why she's village in the next seven minutes? Edit: Updated vote tally
  8. Well there are still fewer boxings available than there should be if four items were bought at three+ boxings apiece. That's certainly an anomaly, but not a particularly pressing one. With the two public ledgers almost prohibitively expensive, it may take a while for them be reintroduced back into Senate hands. I don't think you've made a post where you explained why everyone should be claiming. You did mention that even in the cases where claiming items leads to elim interference, such actions cost the elims warrants(to steal) or boxings(to redirect). Some claims are unavoidable, like ledgers after someone is scanned by one. Warrants are reasonably harmless to claim, as there's little point in the elims spending resources to redirect a warrant unless the owner has declared their intention to target a dagger wielding elim whose kill needs to go through. Claiming whiskey isn't terrible unless someone needs to be protected, but claiming daggers is a poor plan. In general though, I feel suggesting targets gets much of the benefit of claiming while making it difficult to tamper with item usage. Obviously this hasn't been working out super well if nobody ever bothered to protect you the last couple of cycles, and requiring the holder of an item to do something should be avoided not just because the elims can make requests of their own. Presumably, the elims would have known that forcing Fura to target Kidpen would result in Fura learning Kidpen's actual alignment, bribes notwithstanding. Since there's no way elim!Drake would lead a lynch on an elim teammate, the only possible way he's evil is if all four members of the chain are. I am thus happy to reprise my vote for Drake as Governor. If we can actually push this nomination through, I feel it would be valuable to release a Survivor. There have been enough elims lynched that a Survivor should want to finish the game as quickly as possible by flushing out the remaining elims, and there's most likely some valuable information in the jail doc. As to the reasoning for bribing the ledger to Kidpen, the main possibility is that the elims knew Kidpen had a high probability of being lynched and that getting scanned as evil wouldn't hurt his long term survival in any way. If Kidpen ended up needing a bribe to survive the lynch he probably would have died this cycle anyway unless Bard flipped evil, so letting Kidpen get scanned wouldn't be a huge setback if Bard died. The Kidpen lynch was fairly solid throughout the day, but it wasn't until Rae's vote ~20 minutes until rollover that even a bribe wouldn't have saved Kidpen. Still, an elim who assumed that Kidpen was going to be lynched either this cycle or the next would have some reason to redirect the ledger if their main goal was to prevent it from going to Bard or any other unarrested player. I would say an elim around after Bard's vote could have believed Kidpen's eventual lynch was assured, and definitely an elim around after Rae's vote. Ark did end up claiming the dagger that killed Burnt, so that's settled. I think if the elims had a choice between lynching elim!Kidpen or elim!Bard, they would have gone for the latter. Obviously this isn't true if the whole ledger chain is evil, but killing Bard without the use of bribes, or possibly a bribe switching a vote from Kidpen to Bard, would have allowed the elims to go after you, Drake, and Fura. Lynching Kidpen over Bard leaves Bard looking fairly village, until he gets scanned by a ledger in which case Kidpen died needlessly. Of course, the elims also would have preferred to lynch Bard in an elim!Kidpen, village!Bard situation.
  9. We could confirm a Smoker by having a confirmed vote manipulator target their vote and see what happens, but seeing as how we don't seem to have any vote manipulators and the ability that permits this test also blocks Seeker scans, it's probably not worth it. In general, I think Smokers should be taking the action to turn off their coppercloud. Fifth publicly challenged me to claim something, and so I did. I gave my role to Fifth and Burnt, as two people I was reasonably sure were not the Inquisitor. There may well have been better people to choose, but it's too late for that. Removing claimed mistings, those who know mistings but didn't kill them, and Rath for making Randuir's Mistborn claim necessary on D2 gives a fairly short list. @Lumgol dies at the end of N5, but I can't say I particularly want that to happen. I've heard that the Inquisitor might be afraid of killing secret mistings, as that misting probably told someone else they were claiming as insurance. It's possible, and I can add those names back in at the bottom but the Inquisitor really does need a misting dead. Of the other kills, Burnt was attacked right after being killed in the other game.Not strictly evidence, and the two attacks were only separated by fourteen hours, but I feel it's less likely that the Inquisitor would have attacked Burnt if they were aware. 1. Haelbarde (Spar) 6. Lumgol (Teraval) 8. shanerockes (Bill) 12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA) Elandera (TBA) 18. STINK (Fonar Redacted) 9. Doc 16. Bard
  10. 1. I didn't bother to ask Straw, as I assumed Aman would be able to answer more quickly having played the last iteration of this game. 2. Lum has had a tendency to be overly aggressive as an elim up for the lynch, voting early on the main counter-lynch. It's entirely possible this habit has dissipated, but Inquisitor!Lum would have been particularly worried about a lynch that would effectively end the game instantly. Her voting for Aman rather than you made it seem less likely that this was the case. 3. There were six votes/retractions while I was typing that post, and I missed Aman's vote at the end with only a couple minutes left in the cycle. I was worried that I wouldn't have time to make a proper vote and the outcome was highly uncertain with the phantom vote that ended up counting. I'm still not sure why people were so opposed to the double lynch. I don't think I ever made any particular secret that I supported lynching someone alongside Aman. You and Lum may not have been ideal targets, but lynching either of you would at least given us a chance of catching the Inquisitor. 4. Supposing neither you nor Lum are the Inquisitor, the difference between lynching Aman and lynching him alongside one of you is effectively the difference between a no-lynch and a lynch on a villager. It's a tradeoff between killing a villager on one hand, and limiting information while avoiding the potential waste of a misting on the other. The people who supported the tie to some extent were Aman, Araris after changing his mind, Striker, Hael, and I. Hael and Striker did so rather neutrally. That doesn't leave a lot of possibilities open for a vocal Inquisitor. 5. I'm not sure where you got that I opposed lynching a misting D1, what was your reason to think that? 6. If a Mistborn had counterclaimed I would have voted for Randuir, but it was statistically unlikely that the few players around for rollover would be the Mistborn. I wasn't really thinking about the possibility of a convert Randuir, and assumed Inquisitor!Rand wouldn't do something so openly suicidal. I did indeed switch over to Striker, because if there had been a Spiked Soother around at the time, they would have been able to get a three way tie including the claimed Mistborn. 7. It took a bit for the scan results to get out because Doc asked me for the name of the person who shared the information with me, and I had to convince Doc that wasn't necessary unless the scan result turned out to be false. 8. I felt there was a negligible chance that Ark was a misting, seeing as how he openly claimed roleless at the beginning of N1 and Ark isn't usually the type to lie as a villager. The chances of him being the Inquisitor seemed higher than the chances he was a misting.
  11. Your ledger isn't in the marketplace though. Striker's ledger is still there, but your ledger is supposed to be "The Great and Mighty Finder of Evildoers". I'm kind of confused as to why Gaea only has 11 boxings. At least four items(Whiskey: Comrade Vlad’s Vodacola, Warrant: Tearable, Dagger: Sticking Point, Dagger: JoinTheAlleyverse) were bought at a price of at least three boxings, so there should be at least 12 boxings available today plus whatever boxings Kidpen had at time of death. Your ledger being redirected to Kidpen and subsequently bought should have added another three boxings.
  12. The vote is now 5-3, going on 6-3. A bribe wouldn't prevent Kidpen from dying, but could ensure that Bard goes down with him. I think the extra 5% chance of an incorrect flip is worth preventing that.
  13. Where did you get the information that Bard knows a misting? I don't see him making any claims of the sort, so it would have to be in PM. Even if the Inquisitor did have Seeking powers and the Smoker wasn't put in the game to aid the Inquisitor as a teammate or fend off the Inquisitor's converts, the only Seeking that could have taken place is N2 as the Inquisitor has been alone every other night. Araris's death has reminded me that a Seeker scan of an unsnapped could be more helpful than the other two kinds of results, as it doesn't put a kill target on somebody and presumably means that player isn't the Inquisitor.
  14. It seemed that Snip was more opposed to the idea of there being a moral imperative to vote for a governor than any desire to prevent Drake specifically from becoming a governor. I personally feel 'only a concerted effort will result in a governor' is more palatable than 'if you don't vote for this person, you're evil'. On that note, as we can always re-Governor as necessary and the likelihood of two village votes outweighs the extra 10% uncertainty if the ledger chain ends up being scanned as evil, I can add the 5/9th vote for Drake. We can't prove it false yet, we just diminish it's likelihood to minuscule credibility. The conspiracy requires the elims to start out with a dagger, Striker's ledger, Drake's three boxings to bribe Kidpen, and Bard's three boxings to buy another ledger. They would then have to bus Lum and foolishly allow the ledger to pass into the market. This cycle, they would have to use two boxings to divert your ledger into the path of their dagger. For the rest of the game, they would have to make sure that nobody in the chain ever got killed or scanned, which likely means buying both ledgers from the market and have an elim not involved in the chain scan Bard. That would be the sixth elim, along with Bard, Striker, Drake, Lum, and Alv/El. At any time, the entire chain could utterly collapse if the third ledger ever showed up and scanned one of its members. With 17 players still alive and unarrested, this would be a massive gamble and thus not grounds for a lynch when we have other methods of verification available. We can choke off this theory even further by having Fura's scan go through to the correct target while making sure Fura doesn't die. If Bard did flip evil, would that cause you to go after Striker, Drake, and/or Fura? The ledgers are a more accurate method of determining alignment than a lynch that gives at least a 10% chance of an incorrect flip. I don't really understand where the lynch on Kidpen came from, but I would vote there over Bard. There's 30 minutes left to make any other lynch viable.
  15. Kidpen(4): Drake, Fura, Striker, Bard Bard(3): Elandera, Kidpen, Fifth Fifth(1): Araris Drake(4/9): Fura, Snip, Araris, Drake Drake's vote was hidden inside a rather long post. Kidpen happened to show up in the neutral/elim section of everyone who posted reads lists. It's unclear whether Elandera was included in Drake's list of people he trusted, but presumably Fura and Striker were. Bard then joined the vote. Less clear is why Kidpen showed up on all the elim lists, though voting for Joe C1 when both of the constable alternatives were still viable is certainly a point against him. So far as I can tell, the Bard lynch come from Araris's suspicion of the style of Bard's D1 vote. Elandera actually voted in that direction. Kidpen apparently had some suspicion, while Fifth just didn't want to vote for Kidpen. It seems unduly hasty to swing a lynch in Bard's direction, as he's a primary ledger target to close the scanned circle even if Fura wants to hold off on that. There aren't any votes for Snip currently. I would not say his taking a stand against immediately electing Drake as governor is indicative of guilt. If there actually was an elim conspiracy to funnel daggers towards Alvron, Snip might well have been a part of it, but there's no particular evidence beyond Alvron's claim. @Snipexe, why did you pass your dagger to Alvron?