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Archer last won the day on December 17 2018

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About Archer

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    SE: You either die early or you live long enough to be wrong

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    Hi! To quickly get in touch with me, summon me on the TUBA discord or ping me in a post. If you contact me through other means, I will likely not reply to your message until the weekend. Have a nice day!

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  1. Can confirm, I asked to have a PM with BridgeFour. Also, everyone please vote! Even if y'all just randomly pick someone, at least it'll scare the elims into action.
  2. Huzzah! Shame you had to become his demon in exchange. Also, Tani, because I haven't village read you yet, whereas I've managed to temporarily clear pretty much everyone else who has posted a similar amount in my head. It's a process of elimination vote, and one to start a new wagon.I really hate how flimsy my reasons have been so far this game. It's all been meta. Not to worry, 1am Archer is here to sort things out. (Also, can confirm Quinn PMed me.) First of all, I apologize for exing you, TUO. I misread your posts and expected more vote movement. You seemed to be having fun, so your being village is painful. Second, until Jondesu, PizzaPower, and Xino make meaningful posts, I’ll be ignoring them entirely. That helpfully reduces my suspect list to ten. Initial thoughts: -Why was Liranil selected as the elim kill target? Rereading their posts, they made no controversial statements and would have been fairly hard for the village to read, but they voted TUO, which increased their likelihood of being mis-exed as they were wrong. Personally, if I wanted to make a low info kill, I’d have targeted someone like PizzaPower. Liranil was probably identified as more likely to vote, and therefore more likely to potentially exe an elim, but with so many people being village read (Quinn, myself, Dannex etc), I expected someone with village cred to be hit instead. I’m guessing that means someone fairly trusted is actually an elim, and they can’t kill off the most villagey people because when that person isn’t attacked within the first few cycles, people will take notice. -I don’t think e!Mat is afraid of Liranil. So they didn’t try to get them exed, and then upon failing that, resort to using the elim kill. I can see e!Mat trying to make an IKYK situation, but I can just as easily argue that it’s unlikely the elims would risk exing someone they have publicly argued should be killed. I’m leaning towards the latter explanation. -Free village points to anyone who tried to PM Liranil. I'll conf-town you even. Any takers? -Why did so few people vote last cycle? 8/14 isn’t bad, but our ideal game plan is to make the elims have to pad the margins on one wagon to reduce the risk of another one secretly overtaking it and exing an elim. And we need to force their hand soon if we are to win. After seeing TUO’s wagon wasn’t being meaningfully opposed, we should have tried to bring some other options into the mix. Quinn said as much late in C1, so I’m reading them as village for it. Village points to Mat too for agreeing with them. And Dannex for saying this round that communication is good. But elims can say those kinds of things when they aren’t in any danger, so those aren’t confirmed reads. -Ignoring my reads for a second, the flow of the exe appears to be directed towards traditionally less active players. I attribute that partially to the lack of thunderdoming and certain meta discussions happening in the community right now, but I still find it odd. We've got four days to find an elim. My gut says we're not on the right track. -Pre-game, I brainstormed what I think the elim profile would be under these circumstances. That led me to feign nonchalance about PM distribution because I was hoping to see how people would act if given a free choice. I’m guessing that elims were likely ambivalent about the whole thing, or sought to structure the distribution to their advantage. I doubt they were eager to be confrontational about it and draw suspicion, so village points to everyone who said something to the effect of ‘eh, I’ll just PM who I want to.’ By that logic, mild sus on Dannex and Tani (but they parroted their pre-game opinions) and kudos to Kingsway and Gears, but really, no one really came out hard against vote organization. I was going to give village points to anyone who did. -I believe that the optimal elim PM making strategy is to have exclusively made PMs with villagers. This increases their influence. If we all announce who we sent a PM to (and who we received one(s) from, to check for consistency), when we get an elim flip, we can village clear whoever they sent a PM to. I’d also guess that each elim will target a different villager, so if we find someone who has received multiple PMs, and one of the people that sent a PM to them later flips elim, we can clear both the receiver and the other people who messaged the receiver. -This would give the elims a decent amount of information and allow them to systematically sever our lines of communication with their kills. However, I do not see this as a big loss. Players often hesitate to kill their PM buddies, which can look similar to elim team shielding. If we know who all is connected to who, that becomes irrelevant while giving us some valuable information from elim flips. I also know that the first to volunteer information will probably be villagers, so I suggest we all agree to do it, then actually do it, if we're going to do it. Thoughts?
  3. Sisar read the OP and realized magic was discouraged at this party. They groaned. Not even a little spell? Where’s the fun in that? They began exiting the dance floor, stopping to snag a slice of melon from the buffet on the way, before making their way up a spiral staircase to the first balcony. It was dark, so they procured a wax light from an alcove in the wall. It was frivolously shaped like a bird. Some people have too much money. They made their way to the outside portion, which had a large cloth awning. There was a nice seat there, so they sat for a moment to rest their legs. It was quiet. Too quiet. They began to think about the deadly disease they were afflicted with. Darn. And so the kandra who can’t cast cantrips carried a capitalist canary candle and cantaloupe cross-section to the canopy covered chair and contemplated their cancer. * I think I’ll put a vote on TUO. Illwei voted for them, and they have good instincts D1. They also give me Flyingbooks in the LG vibes; they have upped their game. It’s unfortunate if it is an elim tell because I’d rather reward that than penalize it. I am also conscious of the fact that they were the first NK in the LG. But while my vote will make a three-person wagon on them, I’m expecting high vote turnout and plenty of late action which I won’t be around for. So this isn’t a killing blow in any sense. I know that’s all meta. My elim gut read on them is based on meta. To be fair to TUO, I’ll ISO them and highlight their most suspicious content. I'll be voting every round, and it will likely have a pun attached. So beware. -TUO Regularly voting is the default, so by making an effort to declare it, perhaps they know in advance they will make controversial accusations. I like puns though. You, Archer, a little bit Tani, and Dannex, you and Tani are gut reads and Archer and Dannex feel village mostly because of their ideas, I see them as wrong, but village. I’m curious why you don’t trust Mat. It smells like recency bias. That is probably my weakest point, the reason I would prefer to not say who I'm voting is because, if I actually for some reason need to change last minute, I'll get instant sussed. All of my votes this game are going to be random due to my character. I also rarely get suspicions in the early cycles, so saying my vote in thread when I don't normally vote wouldn't make sense. Unfortunately, my vote this round is going on someone I trust, but that's what happens. If you’re randomly voting, your vote will rarely matter. There’s a two-vote threshold for exes. I’m generally not a fan of random voting, especially if you have reads like you said you have already, but this feels like you know it’s going to go poorly and are doing damage control early. Okay, let’s look at Gears. They often get ignored because of the structure of their posts, so this game I’m trying to keep a closer eye on them. Lumi: Useless poke vote [what's the point?] Poke votes have less teeth, but only if people realize that. Lumi: Vil!Danex [really? I don't concur] The Dannex is village argument has merit. Knowing they’re wrong, had they successfully exed me, it would have looked bad for them. I don’t think an elim would take that risk. Taniel: IKYK! [This statement, as well as Taniel's post wherein they agree, seems dramatically overstated, though Tani does have a very dramatic personality. I agree, in retrospect. Same with everything Illwei has said so far. I’m leaning towards it just be personality, but I know Gneo/Tani’s got off-site experience, so they should know to be careful. They relented pretty quickly. If Quinn was an elim Tani just handed them what they thought was valuable information with little convincing. I’ll go ahead and guess Gneofromthematrix and Quinn are not e-e based on this though. It felt genuine. [Order's opinions have been consistently strange] Order: Doesn't like getting suspicion [OrderSuspicion++; Who cares if you get suspected? What matters is what helps the village, not what helps you.] I’m getting the sense that Gears plans to vote for TUO. Illwei: Will suspect them, 3 elims, PMs don't matter [true] Generally a lot of agreement with Illwei in this summary, so that’s noted. I don’t think it’s overly suspicious though, because in their conclusion they mention it and call it strange. Everything I didn’t quote from their post I agree with, so Gears is looking fairly clean at the moment. Good lad. Now why is everyone voting Mat? Did I miss something they said? (That's entirely possible) And are you sussing Dannex for the voting me then retracting it thing, or something else? Welp, I was village reading you for having the confidence to vote early, but I probably need to walk that back a bit. Early on is relative, I'll note. With no elim kills, this game finishes at the end of Day 4. That reminds me, elim kills will be weird in this game. They have to avoid hitting people who might be exed.
  4. First of all, good game, everyone! Thanks for running it, Devo and Mat. To your point, Gears, it's a hard conversation to have because it will be dominated by traditionally active people. But I'll try to put into words where I'm at. I don’t believe you can play an effective game of SE by relying on summaries, skimming, or sheeping. If obvious connections exist, it is possible to make easy judgment calls and support the right exes. Otherwise, much of the game is based on nuance. People create posts that explain their thoughts. To properly evaluate how suspicious they are, it is important to read the whole post as it was intended to be read. Furthermore, I am incapable of reading players who provide few original thoughts, reads, or votes. This arbitrarily limits my suspect pool. It also leads to my being exed or NKed more frequently than lower activity people. If any elims have adopted a quiet playstyle, I feel it unfairly lowers my chance of winning. I feel that it is reasonable to ask players to post frequently and substantively enough that I can get a read on them. Consideration should be given to their IRL situation, but that should not be used as an excuse. I am struggling to balance letting players who enjoy being flies on the wall play the game how they want to with my desire to have a good chance of success. That all came out a little more pointed than I intended to be, but for the sake of conciseness, I'll leave it as is.
  5. Actually it's spelled Gneordien I'm really struggling to figure out why you're gut reading me as an elim. If it's any help, that post was a pre-write. I'll go against the grain and say ah ha! Your suspicions are performative! Gottem. As I alluded to earlier, I believe that the elims benefit more from limited accountability than the village does. At least if the exe is decided in public, we can debate its merits. Otherwise, it'll be a moot point, a bunch of people discussing their reasons for exing someone who has already flipped. Enter my request that people at least post their top suspicions. Name three people you might exe, make a public record of your reasons. That way the elims have to at least come up with reasonable excuses to exe their target. Otherwise they can just say afterwards that so and so was sus and I switched to them at last minute, my bad. I'm undecided whether we should declare who we plan to PM or not. We'd benefit by maximizing our PMs, but odds are there will be little overlap anyway. I'd like to be able to spot who is e-e versus who is a PM buddy with someone, so having information would be good. But I don't think it's vital information to have right now, as it isn't likely to be relevant very soon. But hey, I just found out I'll have a PM buddy, so yay Good observation.
  6. Sisar absent-mindedly rubbed the spike in their forearm. The cloth of their tailored suit was rubbing against it. It was a different kind of spike than the usual ones a creature like them bore. An upgrade of sorts, they decided. They strolled along the edge of the dance floor. Their walking stick tapped lightly on the marble floor with every step they took, just out of sync with the beat of the song the band was playing. It was comforting to have it in their possession. They always felt more honest when wielding it. True to themselves even. And right then, they felt a deep desire to join the dancing. With a cane, the arcane kandra can candidly can can. And so they did. * I’m here and excited to play! But I’m currently working on an essay due tomorrow, so I don’t expect to be very active until Saturday. -I'm guessing a three-person elim team, as the win con is parity. But I'm terrible at these kinds of predictions, so don't put too much faith in that please. -I plan to sheep the most reasonable of Illwei’s votes this cycle. They have a knack for voting elims D1. I’ll make an effort to argue why I chose the option I do, but that’s my intention going in. -I have someone in mind I plan to PM. I don’t think a chain system will remain intact or reliable for very long. I would prefer everyone just made a free choice, but am largely ambivalent on that front. -I support using the coloured votes system to keep track of intentions. I foresee maybe 75% of those being accurate, then about a quarter of people are going to claim to have switched last minute or that they wanted to mis-lead the elim team. The elims benefit more from doing that than the villagers do, so if we can avoid normalizing that, I’d appreciate it. -If you don’t want to commit to a public vote, I suggest you give us your top three suspicions and commit to voting one of the people on the list. Communication is important. Your goal should be to get village read so we can avoid mis-exing you. You need to give us some thoughts to analyze so we can do that. Thank you in advance.
  7. To re-iterate Mat's request, please save this conversation for after the game begins. I understand wanting to share your ideas early so you aren't mis-read for them, but that's part of them game. If optimal strategy is pre-established, it limits discussion D1, and means that anyone who breaks with it will be put under a cloud of unfair suspicion.
  8. I have a suggestion for the breaktank people to consider trying out: a "MR" game with cycles that end at surprising times. Each cycle would be between 24 and 48 hours Before the game, the GM would set out when each rollover would occur but not inform the players. To provide some structure, cycles would only ever end at the top of the hour. An example set-up might be: D1 is 28 hours long, D2 is 37 hours long, D3 is 25 hours long, D4 is 31 hours long etc. Such a game would incentivize early-cycle activity and reduce end-of-day vote avalanches, which can be frustrating. Timezone troubles and accidental inactivity are foreseeable difficulties.
  9. Mm. I indeed knew both of those things were known. Just to recap, I exposed my role for the sole purpose of telling you that there might be nine Hps, but there might also be ten. I don't regret any decisions I have made in the last half hour at all, no sir
  10. Alright, I’m bad at staying anonymous, and I’m a prime NK candidate. So here’s the deal with the Hp doc. When we first received it, there were nine HP slots available. We all claimed one, although two have not been touched. I asked the GMs whether if Illwei had survived, there would have been 10, but didn’t get a straight answer. I’m thinking we should assume there has only ever been nine Hps, not ten as I first thought. That means one regular role is doubled up, or there’s a vanilla player. (Sorry if that’s you.) We unanimously activated a Highstorm N1. Tonight, we were more divided, but it looks like we’re set to trigger Political Vengeance or Financial Crisis, the latter being the current leader. So if you’re thinking of making a purchase, keep that in mind. Fun fact, prices round UP during the half-price sale, which is sad. 7 sphere armour becomes 4 sphere armour etc. Also, Striker probably isn't a Hp because I stole his colour and he didn't say anything.
  11. It makes it sound like they're in an abusive relationship, but I've been attributing Quinn's good mood to them not having to lock horns with Illwei anymore this game. Here's the thing about Araris. I've been agreeing with them a lot this game. They wanted to diversify the field of suspects, for example, which I support. They also are acting as they normally do in LGs: cast an early vote, then review their stance near rollover and more often than not, stick to their guns and see what happens, especially if their vote won't change things. What was a red flag for me was them saying Dannex was beyond saving, but that they really didn't support their exe. I feel like they could have done more to defend Dannex, either with verbal arguments, or by voting Whysper. Last minute vote movements are common enough that it wasn't a done deal, in my opinion. I also expected them to jump on Elandera with me, but in retrospect, it makes sense that they stayed. I was hoping to start something with them other than TJ, who I'm tentatively village reading, but as TJ hadn't had the chance to respond to Araris' vote, he was smart to keep it in play until TJ posted again. By then I had moved on. eeeeeee. Striker keeps doing this thing where I think he thinks I'm going to sus him, so he lays the groundwork to shade me, then walks it back after I post and don't attack him. I'm not sure if it's suspicious or not. I'm looking forward to what you put in my inevitable death write-up. To clarify, I'm aware you have tech troubles and an on-going MR to deal with too. I mainly made that broadside to see if anyone would pre-emptively defend you for it, as an elim teammate might be tempted to do.
  12. Filico’s mouth dropped open. “No, no no!” he said, as Dannex flew off. “No! That wasn’t supposed to- what was-” He was standing on a plateau, overseeing the warcamps. He had taken to micromanaging the situation this time instead of getting his own hands dirty, and that had proved to be… entertaining. And in this case, unexpectedly difficult. He hadn’t realized how much ad libbing this side of the curtain contained. Filico raised a hand to his ear, a gesture that was unnecessary but of good flavor. Calling all hordelings, he transmitted. Code Red! Gather emergency reserves. Major fourth-wall breaching and all manner of illegal activity. Commence damage control. Below, the hordelings he had stationed in case of an emergency got to work. The people that had been dusted were remade with the combined powers of CreateLings and UndoLings. The shattered hearts replaced with RegrowLings, the scattered pieces of the fourth wall replaced with StorykeepingLings, and most importantly everyone’s brain was given a good dose of ForgetLings and MemorywipeLings. It was a messy solution, but it was better than how Dannex had left it. When it all was done, Filico sighed, sitting down on the rocks as the hordelings retreated. Below, the various members of each warcamp woke up in confusion. Crisis averted. *** This is gonna look great on my stat sheet. MR49: Exed for being an NK target LG75: Exed for defending a villager too much In all seriousness, I understand the urge to suspect me. I certainly don’t expect to be cleared over this (although Bodyguard, if you want to send some protection my way tonight, I won’t say no…). After I decided I was going all in on v!Dannex, I went into my notes and wrote a post that basically said Hps, please activate Democracy and exe me by a wide margin, because e!Dannex’s flip would have looked so bad for me that staying alive would have been pointless. In QF49 (debut game, only elim game) I proposed the theory that elims should try to get caught being right. It’s a good strategy, if done subtly. If you think something like that is going on, I’d rather you examine Araris, who spent the cycle dropping hints that they thought the Dannex was wrong, then didn’t act on it. But I’ll admit that in that QF, I was way too confident for an ignorant villager when I called flips. I’d like to think I learned from that game, and feel that if I were an elim again, I would have a more nuanced meta. I’m still not entirely sure why I defended Dannex so hard. Part of it was definitely I had a strong read on them. They’re an easy misexe, and I saw the signs that the elims didn’t care if they died. Had I been on, their claiming Spokesperson would have made me pause, because it was a bad look to ostensibly not self-pres, but really self-pres with manipulation. Vote manipulators are the bane of my existence. On that note, I’m trying to figure out how to increase my thread power when I don’t have an extra vote. My ideal position is to be someone who can influence who gets exed in a meaningful way without getting killed for it. I think taking independent stances and engaging with people as they question it helps me and the village to get information, so it’s a thing I like doing. Quick notes before bed, then I’ll do proper analysis if I survive the night: -Ashbringer is taking a page from Devo’s book this game with his vote timing. Very Machiavellian. -The Dannex train makes sense to me because they never positioned themselves to be village read, but it also didn’t make sense to me because I read the facts differently. Sus on Elandera, Quintessential, Whysper, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade, and forget me not for voting for them. I respect, however, when people dug themselves into holes defending the Dannex wagon. An elim would know they’re villagey and not want to take the fall for it. And if they saw it had opposition, there were safer options. Whysper’s vote is self-pres, Quinn really fought for it, TJ and Forge jumped on when they didn’t need to, and Striker I already village read. So my guess is Elandera is the most likely elim of that group. But you should all be ashamed of yourselves. -Forge voted with zero reasons. Randby said ‘convince me’. Noted. I respect the desire not be wrong, but it devalues the public discourse if nothing that was said over two days was enough to make you lean one way or the other. -TJ’s Flyingbooks sus is noted. I’d prefer to find the most connected and vocal elim first and probably won’t pursue it next round, but TJ seems level headed. As much as an active GM can be. -Is it hypocritical to try exing Whysper tomorrow? I just advocated against always hitting the runner up of a day, but I feel better exing them than Dannex. I’ll probably be looking at Araris, Elandera, and them D3.
  13. Sorry, I gtg soon so this is a hurried post. I appreciate this response because it’s pretty reasonable. I’m working off of the same information as you are, and getting very different conclusions, so I'm at least glad y'all's position is defensible. It feels like we're sticking with two C1 gut wagons based on not great reads. I believe Dannex is village. I think it was QF50 actually where they were widely mis-read and later mis-exed for playing a defensive playstyle. QF50 did have an early elim exe, or attempt at one, but that one had second lives. And a lot of last minute vote switching that made the thread hard to control from the shadows. This game is simpler. I don’t see any signs of elim intervention here. And the lack of self-pres vote has convinced me of their innocence. I think the mis-exe of Dannex will tell us very little. Just because someone secretly breaks a tie doesn’t mean the tie was e/v. I’d prefer to get out of this tunnel and widen our net to get some actual elim reactions. @Dannex are you the Spokesperson? Due diligence and all that. good distancing, they'll never know we're elim teammates now /s
  14. You're correct, (Elandera). To expand on that point, here's why a Dannex info kill doesn’t make sense. Optimal elim strategy is to survive at the lowest cost. To save elim!Dannex, your elim!options are: -Have the team vote for other candidates earlier in the round so your teammate is never in danger. If this was done, how’d they end up being up for exe? -Vote in self-preservation when you’re in danger. Dannex didn’t do this. Perhaps they felt it would be read as elimy. If that’s the case, they were counting on the Spokesperson on their team to save them from the tie, and hoping no one else would vote. Striker and Ashbringer made it 4-6 against them at the end there. There was no elim team response. They couldn’t have known v!Stiker would switch back to a tie. Were they written off by that point? -Have your teammates vote to save you late in the cycle. This is blatant, so it’s usually a last resort. It also didn’t happen, unless e!Striker planned to vote Dannex with 30 minutes to go, then unvote them with 5 minutes to go. That makes no sense, it’d be easier to just vote for Illwei from the beginning. -If they have the spokesperson, they can count on them to remove a single vote. This risks revealing their alignment. Counting on them only works if you are in a tie. If you’re in a 4-5 situation, it only gives a 50% chance of survival. And remmeber, the village has a vote manipulator too, and if they move the right vote, they can make a 5-5 tie into a 4-6 one, out of the hands of Spokesperson manipulation. I don’t believe the elim team would allow Dannex to be in the situation they ended up in. I believe they are more competent than that. Relying on a tie to emerge, the village vote manipulator to not act, and using your elim vote manipulator to save them makes less sense than simply having Dannex or a teammate stick a vote on Illwei. Whysper and others pushing a Dannexe doesn't make sense to me.