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Everything posted by Droughtbringer

  1. Why do we think Danex is safe? The piling on them concerns me a bit.
  2. Are PMs open this cycle? I want to be more active in PMs than I was last round but I also didn't ever participate in PMs last time so...
  3. I was just inactive and ended with a self-vote. :/
  4. I am and completely forgot that not voting would vote on myself... so that's just my bad here. I'll be sure to vote this time, though
  5. What's a hard claim?
  6. I really don't want to die... I don't have a vote count and don't have the time to figure one out... so I'd imagine that TUO is still my best bet to stay alive. Sorry! Mat TUO
  7. Honestly, at this point, I don't don't know my own playstyle. With a two year break and a game where I wasn't super active to base off of, not even I know where I'll end up. Also, sorry, I've had some real life work stuff come up that's taking a bit of time. I should have a decent bit of time tomorrow, though. I'd agree here, I don't see the elims having gone for Illwei after how much suspicion was on them last cycle. They'd prove useful as a distraction from the real elims at least. Part of this is that it wasn't a thread re-read, it was just a thread read. That was a "live reaction" from me as I read through the thread. And... I think that I'm bad at finding people suspicious. I don't want anyone to be an elim and trusting people is my default stance these days. Which... isn't good but it was definetly the reads I was getting. I think I'd have to do re-read specifically searching for suspicious things to pull up any real suspect list. It's also possible that there is no BAM in the game and Araris is just lying... but I think that's too much of a gamble for me to have attempted it. @Matrim's Dice I still haven't seen anything from you that gives us any more read into your thoughts or anything so my vote will be thrown onto you. Mat
  8. Well, I'm going to have to read through the end of last cycle at least 3 more times to understand half of what happened. And.. that's a lot of village deaths. Sja possibly has a 3 person team at this point meaning we have a 3:8 ratio in the worst parity situation.
  9. Oof. I can count. Which was QF29? Huh. I only vaguely remember that game.
  10. Hey! I didn't even realized that QF29 had started by the time it had ended! The weird start delay and then start completely through me off and I was busy with work and figuring out school at the time. Since I know this games started I'll be quite a bit more active then... nothing. Illwei (2): Elandera, Elkanah Tani (2): Matrim's Dice, Araris Matrim's Dice (2): Droughtbringer, Kas Araris Valerian (2): Illwei, Tani I believe. Could be wrong there, it's a bit hard to find this from mobile
  11. My intent with the prior post here had been missed, I think I lost it along the way of writing it. I had been just intending to try and explain why I had been focused on a Sja that was converting, but somewhere along the line I got lost in arguing with you. My apologies for that. The only line that I posted, and that I should have expanded upon, was "could be playing a serial killer, fair" or something similar and then just left it at that. Essentially what I was wanting to say and then forgot about was "hey, I'm blind sometimes and tunneled in on just converting, here are my reasons. Sja playing as an SK is a fair argument and something we should also be keeping in mind." So... sorry that I wasn't make clear, and I will endeavor to be more so in the future.
  12. I'll be waiting for it!
  13. I mean, having time and having time that you are able to spend on SE are two different things. Like SE is fun, but it's not relaxing for me the way other things are. So having the time to type up analyze, type up a coherent post, make sure you aren't painting yourself as an Elim (whether or not you are an elim) and everything else... it just a lot of work. So... yeah
  14. Uhh... Drop everything that you're doing that's keeping you busy and just spend the rest of the week focused on this game and nothing else? That's fair, honestly. There's not tons of time left in the cycle, and with a rough schedule... yeah. If you wanted to post your village reads and why that would be much appreciated. I couldn't say if that would have me remove my vote on you, but it would at least give us more information.
  15. Done. Okay, fair. Maybe Sja is going for the Serial Killer game, but I just don't see that being a valid play. Converting someone is a way to multiply your power. If you have 5 charges, and two charges are taken by a lynch, and a conversion takes maybe 2 charges, maybe 1 charge then converting someone will give you either 1. Converting an non-unmade: You get an extra slot for actions, possibly another role (any of the spren roles), and the lynch is less effective against your faction as a whole*. 2. Converting an Unmade: You get an extra slot for actions, another 'powerful' role, and don't loose any anti-lynch strength. *Sja can survive with 5 charges 3 lynches, each removing 2 charges. But if they manage to convert non-unmade then there are more lynch targets that each take a separate lynch to be able to kill, making it harder to lynch the elim team. Personally, if I were Sja playing a conversion game, I would be converting as that just feels like it would be playing the game the right way. When I play a game with cool mechanics I really, really enjoy messing around with them. Is it possible Sja has decided not to convert? Definitely. But I really hope that they do convert, it's a cool game, a cool mechanic, and I really want to see the havoc that it reaps. I hope I've explained that thought line well enough to have it make sense, I can take another crack at it if I did poorly. More than fine! We're just happy to have you here. While we're at it I'm going to ping the less actives and see if that encourages them to respond. @xinoehp512 - Don't believe we've seen you yet today, but it looks like you've been active a bit on the Shard. @The Unknown Order - I think you've only posted once so far @Elkanah - Last cycle you said you wished you spent more time accusing people, care to come back and cast some accusations? It looks like everyone has posted at least once which is great. But more activity is always better! In other notes, I feel like I should throw down a vote. The cycle is coming close enough to the end that not having a vote at this point is pointless. Tani (2): Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian Kasimir (1): Tani, Illwei (1): Elandera Araris (2): Kasimir, Illwei I'm not a fan of the lynch on Tani, there's almost no reason to it, and I have a pretty good gut read on Araris at the moment. My gut is leaning elim on Illwei, but it is likely because of their playstyle. Kasimir I could see lynching, but I think that just the amount of discussion that he brings up (both with his posts and with his existence at this point) is useful. I don't want to vote on anyone who hasn't posted much as I'd like to both get more reads on them and let them play a bit before we murder them... So I guess that really leaves @Matrim's Dice. You have quite a few posts, but haven't contributed much in the way of your reads. Quite a few of your posts have been shorter, with very little insight to why you're doing what you're doing. That could be a pretty solid place for any Elim to hide; not enough of your thoughts to be read, but active enough to not appear to be hiding. Matrim's Dice So vote count at the end of this post would be Tani (2): Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian Kasimir (1): Tani, Illwei (1): Elandera Araris (2): Kasimir, Illwei Matrim's (1): Drought
  16. Well, thank you for having me then. Is there a reason that he would need to mention that he had been in a recent LG with you? As for his vote on you... a hypothetical scenario If I was Sja then I would probably have started this cycle trying to push the Kas lynch. It keeps the lynch away from me, I have justified reasons for voting on them because no one knows what Kas is, and it feels like it has potential. So I'd say that there is a decent chance that Sja is one of the people wanting to lynch Kas. I wouldn't say a super large chance, but my guess would be ~25% chance that Sja is one of you three. That being said, villagers also have a pretty decent chance of wanting to vote on Kas, because, again, we have no idea what Kas is. All that's to say that I feel like his vote on you is fair.
  17. I wish you and the other two would give a bit more info on why you're voting on/wanting to kill Kas (again) just so that we can discuss it. I have some reasons in my head that someone might vote for Kas, but this thread has talked about the posibility of him being Sja, but haven't given any other reasons. Are there others? Care to clarify what you're asking? Sorry, don't quite know what you mean by his approach. Ha! The rules say no PMs, but they said nothing about turning the thread into our own PM
  18. It would just be 2 converts max, possibly just one if they got the unmade. One of the clarifications was that Sja can't self kill with a convert. Village Reads: Kas - I just don't feel like someone would pull that off of Sja, it seems like a stupid, risky play. I also don't think that Sja would have converted him as he was being lynched, and sure he likely was telling the truth, but if he was lying because he wanted to not play a conversion game, or just thought it would be fun, or if someone else targeted him then you lose an action which could put Sja even further behind. Illwei - Your posts have all read village thus far, you have put in a decent bit of time and effort and generated useful discussion for the village. I don't know your play style that well, but I have disagreed with a few points that you have made in ways that makes me think you're a village. I don't know if that makes sense, but I tend to find Elims to be a bit less confrontational in thread at this point in the game. |TJ| - Their posts just read as authentic to me? Not certain why, but it's a gut read at least. Realized I switched to 2nd person for your read, so apparently this entire post is just directed towards you and everyone else is just here to coincidentally read it all.
  19. Okay, gonna read through everything and post specific reactions here: Rules: No lynch minimum means that we could have just not voted at all to see if the RNG would help us win, but considering the turn has passed and it's not super likely to come up again... Re-Shephir seems like it could be a scary ability. I imagine that could combo with the conversion action to convert multiple people. If so would that take multiple charges, or not? (Changed upon reading Cycle 2 writeup) Either way, though, I'd point this ability out as something to be careful with because it could duplicate actions we do not want duplicated. Death Rattles seem like a really fun, cool mechanic, and I'll probably spend either very little time or too much time on mine. Saj-Anat has 5 charges, which is a solid number. Could make a significant elim team with that, or just have some really hard to take down. Order of Actions (Roleblocks-->Re-Shephir-->Protects/Vote Manips/PM Abilities-->NKs-->Conversions-->Scans) this means that any scans will always give us the right information... so long as we survive. @|TJ| - I don't know if this is a great idea. Posting reads is a fundamental part of getting reads on other people, as finding fake/suspicious reads is just very useful information. I definitely think we should be guarded with our reads but I think we should say more than just the binary 'village' 'elim' options. @xinoehp512 This is a great point, furthering what I was saying earlier, the more information that we can get to the village the better. This is just a general thought back to the Random lynch if no one votes, I think this does a fantastic job of encouraging day 1 voting, as you just kinda.. have to vote if you don't want some random bloke to die. |TJ| - Your entire sets of ideas here comes off to me like a villager with an idea that... we (as in the rest of the players) just didn't agree with. I do think you bring up a good point here, that we should really be redoing our trust reads once a cycle. Well, at least our village trust reads, based only off of things that have happened since the last conversion takes place. @Kasimir - This is so convenient to post right as some suspicion starts to come on you, but it also reads like a village. I feel like Sja would have waited to claim stormspren instead of doing it this early. There could be a big brain play of claiming that for a future notice, but it reads fairly real to me. I think this also soft clears you for this cycle (to conversion, at least) because it is highly unlikely that Sja would take a risk converting someone who might die (OOA would have not had the convert go through because kills are first, but getting a few more players on the board is probably a priority for Sja) Kasimir - Oooh. Those are some really good points. Like maybe a crazy Sja play, but I'd be quite surprised. @Illwei - I honestly just confused by this post. I read it one way, typed up a response, read it another way, typed up a different response, read it a third way and already went through the work of getting a quote one here so it's staying. @The Unknown Order Don't know if we've ever met, or played a game together. Nice to meet you! @Tani - There's always tons to say! I would like to hear more from you, as this post doesn't have much on your reads just on... killing people. Xino - I'm uncertain why you voted on yourself here, Kas has a pretty great, thought out argument but this just seems to be a self vote. Doesn't read village, I'm just confused by it @Elkanah (I just changed the formatting on this post to be a bit smaller height wise) - All great points and I'm just going to use this moment to talk about more about my read on the Kas situation here. Sja would gain a decent bit of trust from this play, but have high risks. Kas is now going to be on our radar as a possible Sja until we find the other one, or kill him (or lose the game, but...), and would have lost 2 points out of five. That is a significant hit with relatively little gain. Do we still keep an eye on Kas? From now until forever, but I would be quite surprised if he was Sja. Kas - This is a really good point. The more we post, as the village. No, strike that, the more information and reads ands guesses and thoughts that we give out as a village the more information we have to win the game. This is prevalent in all games of SE, but especially so in Conversion games. So, I'll say it again, everyone please say stuff! And onto Cycle 2! I just honestly haven't had/made the time till now, but fair. I agree with this, if I was Sja I would want to convert night 1; giving more information, more actions, more chances to make the plays that will win you the game. Depending on who was converted Sja might go for another one this cycle. I imagine if they got an unmade for two charges and are now down to 3 then they'll hold off on converting to try and get some more info on roles to try and keep at least some form of an extra life for the future, but if they got a 1 charge convert then I could see them going for another conversion with this cycle. A Kill on N1 would reduce the village by the same amount, but lack the information and power that can be gathered by a conversion. Please let me know when this game is up, that sounds delightful. I strongly disagree with this. I've talked about it a bit earlier in this massive post (sorry everyone about that), but taking center stage as Sja just seems like a bad idea to me. I do not believe that Kas offering himself up was an elim play, that is such a massive risk in a game where you're the only elim and failure means near instant loss of the game. That being said, I don't read this post as an elim post either. I see this as another villager disagreeing with Kas' plan, but not an elim trying to get Kas lynched. Final Thoughts: That was a lot to read through... and now you all have even more. I have a few people I'm reading village, but no one that I'm reading strongly elim at this point. I won't be voting for now, but I will by the end of the cycle
  20. Haven't yet had the chance to read through the thread, and have to head back to work in about... a minute and a half so short post to say I'm alive and ill be back before the end of the cycle to talk a bit more. Thoughts on the game: Seems like it'll be a fun game.
  21. I completely forgot about this game! I had the old startdate in my calendar, and then when it got pushed back I forgot to ever check the Shard again. Sorry everyone.