Frozen Mint

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About Frozen Mint

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    Just wandering the internet
  • Birthday 10/13/1994

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  1. Lynch trains are bad. Being wrong is no reason not to keep going. I don't see how lynching people for being wrong is helpful to the village. It can mean someone's intentionally leading a mislynch. It might not. But it's something we have to analyse to determine, not an automatic assumption. This mindset has been somewhat prevalent through out the game and I'm not a fan of it.
  2. It wasn't intended as a random vote. Lahilt has been posting but they've been passive. Their strongest suspicions come only after others . They've posted some reads here and there but then they hedge their reads ("village read but also, they could be elim"). This might just have to do with their newness but it's a great way for an elim to fly under the radar while supporting a mislynch. Also, forgot to mention in my initial post, but I have a pretty strong village read on Matrim. I guess you can call it a gut read at this point, I think there were some things in their posts which made me think village (some of which I've mentioned previously) but I don't remember them atm. @TJ Shade Vote based on your suspicions, not based on self doubt. I'm not sure if this is helpful to say but being wrong is part of the game. Getting good reads is really hard. Frankly, I don't think I'm very good at it yet. But you can only get better through practice.
  3. I'M DONE Y'ALL The main thing I got from El's posts was that she was pretty aggressive in encouraging participation and was very active. Araris moved their vote from Ventyl to Devotary to TJ on D1, so a lot of switching. Not sure if that says much on D1. I do wonder if their long posts on Gears and El are attempts on keeping the lynch focused on a small pool, but they have been helpful. I suppose it would also be telling if either Gears or El flipped elim. Honestly, I'm having a hard time getting reads on El and Araris. I'm not sure if I'm suspicious of Mage, but I do think he's really tunneling on TJ. Gears I'll note that in D1, Gears voted for Striker once Striker was a major lynch candidate, but before Striker's lynch was a definite. Given that, I doubt they're an elim. I will say that they steered a lot of attention towards Ventyl, which is somewhat suspicious, but I think the vote on Striker outweighs that. Gears was also in favor of leaving the vote a tie between TJ and Striker. Gears' tunneling on Ventyl is also... something that stands out a lot, so in hindsight, I'm not sure if elim!Gears would go that route, given that he'd know how Ventyl would flip. I'm also not convinced that elim!Gears wouldn't try to defend himself more in D2 (he seemed kind of laidback about being lynched, when there were ways he could defend himself i.e. provide more suspicions). Lahilt Lahilt doesn't seem very committed to any suspicions. They vote on TJ late in D1. They post some reads on D2 but essentially say that those reads can go either way. (Lahilt, if I've missed a post of yours that was more firm, please correct me.) Devotary Reading through Devotary's posts, I've found them to be noncommittal as well. They have become more interesting as the game goes on. She votes on Ventyl over Gears in D2 to break the tie, which is... interesting. I don't know if I'm getting a good feeling from her. I do think elim!Gears makes elim!Devotary more likely. TJ TJ's strongest elim reads on D1 were Eternum and Ventyl (the latter more so than the former). They changed their votes a lot during D1, mostly it seems for the sake of self preservation. He roleclaims N1. He REALLY went for the Ventyl lynch on D2. While elims try to steer mislynches, I have a hard time imagining elim!TJ being so aggressive about it. He'd know Ventyl would flip village which isn't a good look for him. Combos Pyro is very anti-Gears lynch on D3, so I find it unlikely that they'd be elims together. Elims don't normally offer each other such strong support openly. Matrim also really goes after Elbereth, so they're unlikely to be elims together. elim!TJ would also clear Mage since Mage expressed some pretty heavy suspicions of TJ. So in contrast to the rest of the thread, I'd rather not lynch Gears (or TJ for that matter). We get a lot of information if Gears flips elim but given that I don't think he's elim, anyone willing to lynch Lahilt? I really don't like this single train. And honestly, I'm also still on board for lynching inactives.
  4. Okay, I know I said I'd have an analysis post today. But man, I really underestimated how much there was. I promise I'll have it tomorrow.
  5. Alright, I apologize, I was going to do a thorough analysis yesterday but that never happened. I'll try to get around to doing one today or tomorrow. I'm strongly opposed to lynching El. Partly because I haven't played with her in a while so I don't want her to die so soon, but I don't see those voting on El providing good reasons for their suspicions. They mostly sound like gut reads, and those reads mostly seem to be based on her playstyle. And if she is village, I'd argue that she'd be a major loss for the village, considering her earlier megaposts. I don't particularly suspect Eternum, but again, I still have to go through the previous posts. So given that there isn't enough time left in the cycle for me to review everything that's happened and how active players seem to be the only ones drawing attention (which is a small portion of the very long player list), I'm placing a vote on one of the inactives, xino.
  6. Tbh it only seems to be hurting the village because we're focusing on it so much. Also, lying in SE is fun. And can potentially reveal things about others' alignments. There's different ways to go about the game. Elims don't only defend other elims. It puts them on thin ice if one of them dies.
  7. Some very, very quick reads: Ashbringer: Null. Seems to be contributing a lot. I'm not really seeing any tells either way. Devotary: Null. Incredibly logical as usual. Assuming that elim!Devotary tends to be just as logical. Illwei: Slight village. Their comments are striking me as something that would come from a villager. A bit of a gut read I guess. El: Slight village. Their reasoning is generally sound and well thought out, though I'm generally hesitant to consider that AI for experienced players. But they've pushed a lot of discussion. Eternum: Slight village, though in my experience, very good at sounding village. We'll see. I do think their posts have contributed positively to the village. Matrim: Village (as previously stated) Orlok: Null. I have no idea what to make of Orlok since I've never seen him play like this. Pyro: Slight elim but I think it's mostly a gut read. It could just be how their playstyle comes off to me. Truthwatcher: Slight elim. Jumped on the Ventyl lynch pretty easily. @The_Truthwatcher what other reads do you have right now? I can't speak for the others, but I personally don't see how Ventyl's actions would be helpful as an elim. Elims tend to be more careful, not less, if not for their own sake, then at least for the sake of their team. You could argue that there's a chance elim!Ventyl just went all out so he could have some fun anyways, but I don't think it's plausible. And based on the last QF, I got the sense that Ventyl's playstyle is just chaotic in general. It's NAI for him. Gears, you've been tunneling on Ventyl and I'd rather lynch you than TJ (I feel like TJ has provided sound reasoning behind his suspicions, plus I'd rather not accidentally kill a village radiant). I don't like how so much D2 conversation has revolved around a single player's lynch. This isn't really helpful because one of you flipping village doesn't indicate that the other is an elim. The other person could just be a paranoid villager. If one of you flips elim, then the other is most likely a villager but that's a different scenario. Also, if I'm off base, the more experienced players are free to correct me. But can you all please chill a bit? This is just a game and the point is for it to be fun.
  8. A village vote manip was just as likely to save Striker as it was to save you. I don't see how my stance was pro-Striker. I'm confused? Joe said that the fact there was no vote manip done to save Striker means that the elims have no vote manip. I was refuting him. No vote manip in Striker's favor isn't a confirmation that the elims have no vote manip abilities. Which is what you're saying here, just with different reasoning?
  9. Or they didn't want to show their hand.
  10. Given Sart's somewhat aggressive vote for Striker and Striker flipped elim, I'm confident they're village. I have a stronger village read on Matrim now as well since they voted for Striker twice (they retracted once but voted on Striker again once Striker had 2 votes against him, and he'd be more likely to be successfully lynched). I suppose elim!Matrim might have voted for Striker if they were protecting TJ. So in that scenario TJ would be an elim and a radiant (which is why their survival would be higher priority than Striker). But I feel like the elims could have tried to shift the vote onto a villager if that was the case. Unless the majority of D1 discussion somehow revolved on the actual elims, which would be some crazy luck. (Also, highly appreciate the summary Gears!) Is this AI? Is there anyone who would've vote out of self-preservation? I'm also going to assume that at least one elim voted on not Striker (so we have Araris, El, Eternum, Lahilit, Magestar... and then single votes by Ventyl and Orlok). ___ (I'm not familiar with the setting so my RP might be contradictory? But I did want to RP this game. Looked up the Diagram and honestly have no idea why they wanna kill anyone.) Lyra pulled a blanket out of sack, her hands trembling. Stop it now, you have to sleep. We have a long journey ahead of us. But it was no use. She laid on the ground for hours but sleep wouldn't come. Lyra kept envisioning the dead body. When they had started their journey, Lyra felt strangely relieved. She knew the dangers but despite them, she had hope that she and her fellow refugees would all make it by standing together. She stayed neutral when the fighting broke out. Lyra didn't realize it would go so far. Even worse, the one who died turned out to be a killer himself. All of them, here so they can reach a safer place. Will they never have peace? Would any of them even make it across the shattered plains alive? Bleary-eyed, eventually exhaustion took her over and she fell into a deep sleep.
  11. I don't think it's going to be as much of a thing as it was in the last QF. Partly because this is an LG and partly because I think that particular level of craziness isn't all that common. Regarding vote manipulation, it would be very interesting to see how a tie plays out. I'm trying to think if it would give us any useful information, without also giving the elims useful information. Honestly, I'm having a hard time coming up with a scenario where vote manipulation info would help the village in this case. I would encourage villagers to not use vote manipulation this turn because what I see happening in that case is that the village then spends a significant amount of time debating whether the vote manipulation was by the elims and, if so, should we lynch the saved player this turn? It'll serve as a distraction which is good for the elims, bad for us.
  12. I'm not sure that making El a prime elim target is a good way to repay her. Agree with everyone that you shouldn't have role-claimed but that's somewhat your prerogative. But at the very least, don't announce who you're squiring because then the elims might kill them. Edit: And ninja'd by Gears. Dammit.
  13. @Elbereth I'm here okay, are you happy I don't think I'll be as active in this game as I was in the QF Given how Ventyl played in the last QF, their posts here are NAI. The chaotic vibe he gives off is just how he plays. Also, I don't remember exactly which players said it, but I agree that D1 role analysis is NAI. Re: alignments: I'm reading Matrim as village. His suspicion of Striker, genuine confusion, and eventual clarity all strike me as genuine. Elims tend to do more... posturing. And since I know someone will ask, no I don't have any other reads yet. I'll probably read through the thread again later, unless some new drama comes up, in which case I'll be reading those posts.
  14. Well I was an elim, but I still don't understand how I became a serious lynch target in the first place.
  15. Eternum fell asleep before the end of the cycle. Rollover was at like 2 AM in Albania.