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Magestar last won the day on May 14 2016

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About Magestar

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    Somewhere over the Rainbow
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    Brandon Sanderson. Books. Brandon Sanderson's books. Discussing Magic with Sciency terms. Math. SE/Mafia style games. Strategy. Videogames. Strategy Videogames. Debate. Philosophy. Theology. Debating Philosophy and Theology.

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  1. The TJ lynch obviously isn’t going anywhere. Hmm. I’m checking in from work on my phone and don’t have time to really do any analysis. I’m not terribly suspicious of Ventyl, but I think their lynch will also give us the most information. All I have on Gears is their odd tone. I have no idea why Matrim is even up for the lynch. I guess of the three, the arguments for Ventyl being lynched are probably the best, and a tie sounds good to me.
  2. Ok, so I just went over TJ's posts, since I've got my vote on him at the moment. I hope to do the same thing with Ventyl and Gears, then with some of the less-focused-on players, to get some more options out there. Here's what I've got so far. In TJ's very first post of the game, he responds to El's poke vote on him by saying he shouldn't be lynched because he's been useful to the village in the past when he's been village. Kind of a weird thing to say. I guess it makes sense to defend yourself, but he responded rather thoroughly to what amounted to nothing more than a poke vote. He's also swapped around a bit on the Ventyl lynch; at first, he agreed with my position that Ventyl's actions wouldn't make a lot of sense for an Elim: Now, obviously, he's changed positions. This was interesting to me. This almost looks like an attempt at distancing with Striker. I said D1 that TJ's reasoning for being suspicious of Striker didn't make a lot of sense to me; asking an easy question and having Striker answer it would be a super easy to do some distancing and make both of them look better to the village, IMO. I did notice that TJ mentioned when he claimed that he claimed even though he knew it would make him look suspicious, because he couldn't exactly keep quiet as a village KR about to die... that in particular is more of a village thing to say, IMO. But it's also just good cover. I'm also realizing that the thought process people are applying to Ventyl - that they let Striker get lynched to protect an Elim KR - could be applied to TJ as well, who's basically confirmed as a KR with his vote shenanigans. TJ also expressed some confusion with my suspicions of him early D1, in a way which didn't make a lot of sense. It seemed like he was trying to say I looked suspicious for expressing suspicion on him this game, and he mentioned something happening in LG66 which I'm fairly certain didn't happen. In conclusion, I think he was acting frantic and odd before he was even really up for lynch. I think some of his votes seemed really flimsy, and some seemed like an Elim trying to drum up a lynch. I think there's reasonable evidence for my suspicion of him. Alright now for some responses. This... actually makes a lot of sense. I can see this being a reasonable thought process for a villager. My only thing is that my paranoid half is feeling like this explanation doesn't sound like Ventyl to me. Part of me is feeling like it could be an Elim teammate giving instructions trying to do damage control... That might be too paranoid. I don't want to cast aspersions on Ventyl's abilities. Eh. I think this actually makes a lot of sense. I could see myself doing this as an Elim. It's fairly simple and it's a really good way to try and pocket a villager (is that how you use "pocket"? Last game was the first time I've seen it used. ) And that's probably all I'll be able to do this cycle. I've just learned that I have a morning shift tomorrow so I won't be back home till after the cycle ends. -sigh-
  3. Sure, but you're assuming Ventyl - or anyone, for that matter - had the foresight to anticipate the fact that roleclaiming would lead to this exact situation. I personally wouldn't have expected it to get this out of hand. To use Matrim's example, we could have shrugged off Ventyl's claim. Or, for other reasons, Ventyl could just not have been up for the lynch. I think saying Ventyl "set up" this situation might be going a little far.
  4. I think you may be overestimating both how easy it would be to avoid the situation and Ventyl’s ability to avoid it.
  5. Sorry I haven't gotten around to posting yet; my family sprung a trip to my grandparents on me at the last minute. I wrote most of this post this morning and didn't have time to send it. >.> Since I don't have much time, I'm just post some quick thoughts on the cycle so far. This is the best thing I've read all day. Thank you for lightening the mood a bit. Strong disagree. You pseudo-claimed pretty early D1 after a lynch started building on you to protect yourself. Ventyl did it semi-randomly, which seems like it's basically their playstyle at this point. I'm not super trusting of you because I think it's less normal for you to claim than it is for Ventyl, who apparently does this sort of stuff all the time. Furthermore, I strongly doubt elim!Ventyl would continue acting the way they have. I feel like their actions are super odd for an Elim. I'm surprised more people haven't considered this. no I didn't consider it either shush. Frankly, it makes a lot more sense than a lot of the other theories flying around. In defense of Ventyl, I also thought that squiring took two charges of stormlight. It's possible the base rules read that way if you're not paying terribly close attention, which I wasn't, and didn't read the clarifications, which I didn't. I'm kind of suspicious of how closely Gears and TJ are acting together. I don't have time to look but does anyone know if TJ has any experience being an Elim? If not, that could pretty easily explain his frantic behavior, IMO. Other things... I'm not terribly suspicious of Elbereth? I don't know why Orlok is, so I don't feel like I can comment. Her actions seem village, but I'm fairly sure she could fake that pretty easily. I don't like how Gears is phrasing things - using "we" when referring to things they want done, so it seems like they're speaking for the village, and the general vibe of them giving permission for us to do things. It just seems... off? I don't know. I'm a little worried that none of the main three up for discussion are Elims. I've already made my thoughts clear on Ventyl; I'm starting to think Gears is tunneling too hard for an Elim, and I'm not sure about TJ. Still, I think TJ is the most suspicious of the three. I'll throw a vote on TJ Shade for now. I'm surprised there aren't any on him yet. I'll be back before the end of the cycle with hopefully some actual game analysis. >.>
  6. Well, here's the thing. I'm not suspicious of you just for your vote on Ash. Your vote on Striker doesn't clear you because not only was it unnecessary it also came really late in the cycle, after you also tried to get Ventyl lynched over Striker. And your burning two charges to save yourself is also pretty NAI. Role-claiming as self-protection is almost more an Elim move... but even ignoring all that, I'm still suspicious of you for your tone. The tone of your posts just seems a little frantic, which is weird to me. You never seemed frantic when you were a villager, and I'm pretty sure someone else confirmed that this tone seems off for you, so I know it's not just me. Yeah. This whole lynch was weird. I don't know if I've said this already, but I still think the Striker lynch was weird. I'm glad we got an Elim, but the reasons for voting for them still confuse me. I mean, look - That's just kind of a silly lynch. Three out of four votes because they didn't want TJ to die. It's weird. Right off the bat this sort of voting reads bad. The thing is, Striker's vote also doesn't make any sense. I feel like in LG67, I didn't understand the Elim voting patterns either. Sometimes Elims do sub-optimal things? IDK. I just don't know. This is probably the only post I'll make till the end of the cycle. I'll see you guys next day cycle.
  7. Well. Wow. That was lucky. I still don't think that lynch made any sense, but D1 lynches rarely do, I suppose. I feel similarly. I just did a skim of the cycle, but from what I could tell, the TJ lynch and the Striker lynch sprung up largely separately. The lynch on Ventyl also sprang up pretty quickly. I largely put my vote on Ventyl to see what TJ would do, and if they'd follow their suspicions or self-preservation... I'd probably be more suspicious of TJ if they hadn't thrown their vote on Striker at the end? But that could also have been bussing. It certainly wasn't necessary, given that TJ apparently could cancel two votes on themself. Idk. The likelihood of the village accidentally almost lynching two Elims seems low, but I wouldn't go as far as to say that TJ is soft-cleared. That's all I've got at the moment. Unfortunately I'll be busy all tomorrow so I won't be able to post much. I should be able to be fairly active next day cycle though, so I'll try to put together my thoughts and get some reads out then.
  8. Well, at least in my opinion, the stuff Ventyl has done is a lot weirder than focusing on specific game mechanics... which is all I'm seeing for suspicion of Striker. Well, if Ventyl is in fact an Elim, a large number of Elim KR could indicate larger numbers of KR in the game overall. But that's purely speculation. I'm also skeptical of the idea that there's a large number of KR in the game, for similar reasons.
  9. Could someone explain the reasoning behind the Striker lynch to me? I kinda get the TJ and Ventyl suspicions, but the Striker lynch I'm not really understanding. edit: And does anyone care about lynching Ventyl, or should I just move my vote.
  10. Geez, y'all are going absolutely crazy. Because you were village last time and your tone now is different from when you were village? IIRC, I had a pretty village read on you all game LG66, except for paranoia near the end. Response above. And I was saying that's how I act regardless of the game I'm in. I think the problem, in my mind, is that Ventyl's actions seem so out of the park weird that I can't see an Elim team allowing them to do them. I guess that was the case in LG67 as well... I don't know. I could see Ventyl being an Elim; the problem is I'd assume that a decent elim team wouldn't let Ventyl continue to act like this. Ah. See, this isn't wrong. This is exactly what Ventyl did in LG67. The question for me is whether it's how they act as an Elim, or just how they act. I'll move my vote to Ventyl for now, just to stir things up and lower the lead on TJ. I might move it back before the end of the cycle.
  11. Nooo. No you're not. You're claiming, or at least pretending to. And the cycle still has over a half a day left. This is what made me suspect you this cycle. You just seem really frantic for some reason, and it's very different to me from how you acted in the previous game I was in with you. I guess I'd appreciate a second opinion. Is it just me reading TJ this way?
  12. I'm voting for TJ is because they're as good a lynch as anyone. Their lynch will give us some information, I don't see a better one, and some of TJ's posts seem a little uncharacteristically frantic. That seems pretty decent for D1. I still don't see TJ's point. It just seemed like grasping at straws to me. Why would you doubt the Elims can make squires? I didn't see anything in the rules that would even suggest that. Where are you getting Honorblades from? If Ventyl's an Elim KR, wouldn't it make sense to kill them sooner rather than later, so they don't squire? I'm so confused. And I've been ninja'd a half dozen times. Whatever.
  13. I mean, it was weird. Your response was just also weird. I might have said this before, but for me it's because role analysis such as yours is a good way to look like you're contributing while also playing it extremely safe. It's a good way for Elims to hide. This isn't always the case, and it's not something to put all your bets on either. But last game I was in I was suspicious of Xino for doing the same thing and they flipped Elim. And it's not necessarily bad reasoning for C1. Gears' posts are kind of odd to me. Is this their first game? The TJ lynch is certainly moving along. @Straw, could I get a vote count? I think TJ is as good an option as anyone at this point. I'd also consider Matrim. I'd rather not lynch Gears yet if this is their first game. @StrikerEZ I keep wanting to try and extend my posts to over 200 words.