Nyali

Sorry for not posting, I was busy all weekend and didn't really have time to put toward SE. I'm not sure what to say. I said things that people found suspicious, and I doubt anything I say will change their minds. If the Coinshot is a villager, I doubt they attacked Mad. Mad has been giving rather solid insight, even if the premise of her arguments is incorrect. I think the attack on Mad was the Mistwraith Council, since it would both implicate me further and remove a vocal person others are listening to. That would mean the hit on Doc was the Coinshot. Well, unless the coinshot was a Mistwraith too... I'm actually starting to think there IS no Coinshot, just a bunch of Mistborn. If the Mistwraiths had a Coinshot, they would have used the Coinshot every turn, and there was only one kill attempt Night 0. Also, Dalinar was attacked at least once by the Coinshot when everyone thought he was a Mistwraith. Some of the later Coinshot kills have made little sense unless the attacker was a Mistwraith. If this is the case, then unless a villager had a reason to hit Doc that I missed, that kill was likely from a second Mistwraith Mistborn. (well, if the Mistwraiths did both kills, then it doesn't matter which of the two was a Mistborn and which was the Mistwraith's nighttime victim, but you know what I mean.) I dunno. Maybe there is a coinshot, and they are a villager, and their choice of targets is just very different from what I would choose. Regarding Rae, there's a huge difference, to me, between how Dalinar defended me early on and how Rae defended him when most other people thought he was an Mistwraith. Others, like Mad, don't see it that way. I doubt anything I say will change Mad's opinion on the matter. I still think Rae is likely an Mistwraith, especially since someone soothed a vote on her. The Mistwraiths used emotional allomancy to aid Dalinar several times, and a village rioter and soother have both been killed so it's less likely a villager did it. Though, if there ARE a bunch of Mistborn (see above), then I guess it could have been a village Mistborn? I still have no idea what the role distributions are... Also, I'm pretty convinced that Jondesu and Mad are villagers at this point. They are at the top of my trust list, even if Mad is trying to kill me. Neither attack had the feel of a WGG. Wilson, I'm less sure of, but I'm very biased because of LG20 (where she fooled me repeatedly and for the entire game), so I'm refraining from saying anything further about her. I'll try to look back through the turns I only had time to skim later and share more thoughts, but work has been really busy lately so it may not be possible for a while.

Mistwraiths vote on Mistwraiths all the time, especially early on, to establish innocence later by pointing at their earlier votes. I don't see how the first person to vote on a known Mistwraith is at all cleared by said vote. Is that the only point you have in defense of Rae? You don't find anything she said yesterday to be at all suspicious?

Umm, no, I'm saying Rae is suspicious because she wanted us to not kill Dalinar to the point where she said the village will lose of we lynched him. That's a little different in my eyes and spoke more of desperation to me. Also, in addition to saying that, she said that a coinshot should kill him at night, despite most of us expecting the Mistwraiths to have a lurcher. She keeps suggesting tactics that really help the Mistwraiths. That's what I'm suspicious of.

A few things here - first of all, I wasn't trying to kill Rae cycle 1. I was trying to get her to explain herself a little better, because what it sounded like she was saying was really suspicious to me. She was suggesting tactics that I felt would only help the Mistwraiths kill us all. (I will say though that though I didn't think she was a Mistwraith then, I'm thinking she's since been replaced, because what she said last cycle in defense of Dalinar was extremely worrying.) Also, whenever I've been an eliminator here, the first rule has always been "never defend another eliminator." I don't know if all eliminator teams do it that way, but I hardly think a known Mistwraith defending me on the first day means I must be a Mistwraith too. Especially since the "suspicion" I was being defended against was unfounded and based on people completely ignoring everything I posted and just looking at who I voted for. I'm actually still annoyed about that. I'm actually going to put a vote on Rae now, and this time, the reason isn't so I can get more information from her. While I am a bit suspicious about her completely ignoring me cycle 1 when I asked for elaboration, I'm very suspicious of her fervent defense of Dalinar yesterday.

Hmm. I went back and looked at yesterday to see who exactly advocated for us to not kill Dalinar and instead let the coinshot kill him. All I really found was Rae advocating for it rather strongly, and Wilson mentioning it once. (Elenion argued that we should kill the person he suspects is a spiked lurcher instead of Dalinar, but only so our coinshot could kill Dalinar in the night, so that doesn't count.) Wilson, I'm biased about. The first time we played a game together (LG20, which was also my first game), she tricked me for like the whole game, so I'm always worried about her. But, she was advocating discussion of people who were not Dalinar more than making a tactical suggestion. Rae, on the other hand, specifically said "Don't waste another lynch on Dalinar if you want the village to win." That statement makes no sense to me. A lot of what Rae's said this game has made little sense to me, starting with the Day 1 role suggestions she posted. This all puts her as my top suspect for now. I don't know how I feel about Lopen. I don't know the role distribution in this game, but if Wilson's attack was not a WGG, that makes me suspect Lopen. He insists he didn't protect her night one, and I doubt there are two village lurchers and a Mistwraith lurcher. But, I guess there could be? Or there could be a village Mistborn who could have rolled Iron? I really don't know how Meta does role distributions. I'll try to say more about other players later - work and home have just been really busy. Nyah tentatively approached the "Free Cat Bar." She was rather hungry and hadn't had cat in ages. She heard the price was all of her money, which made her laugh. What orphan has money? It must be a way that the generous soul who was offering the cats could keep out those who weren't beggars or orphans. She was surprised when she sat down and was handed a live cat. Perhaps this was one of those places where you had to kill and cook the food yourself? She didn't notice any knives. She took hers out of her belt and put it to the cat's throat. The cat looked at her and purred. She dropped the knife, startled by adorable feline eyes. No, this was not what she had expected at all. She just couldn't do it, so she pushed the cat off of her, snatched her knife from the ground, and ran. She would go hungry tonight, she reckoned, but at least that cat would be okay.

If Dalinar was telling the truth, and it now looks like he was, he's the Mistwraith Mistborn. Every day that he survives is another chance for the Mistwraiths to gain access to Coinshot capabilities. There is literally no way he can survive being lynched this time (and I've managed to scrounge up some acid (don't ask), which should help). If we let him live, we'll just have to contend with this every night until he dies. He openly admits that he's a rioter this turn, so we need the lynch to be winning by a fair amount or he'll get away. I'm still trying to figure out why the village coinshot killed Straw. It just doesn't make any sense to me. I guess they figured Dalinar would be protected again and went for someone else, but the choice just seems random. I am a believer in coinshotting someone every night, but you're supposed to go for the suspicious people first, not roll a die. Regardless of whether or not the Mistwraith Council performed a WGG on Wilson, I highly doubt the Mistwraith Council would perform two WGGs, so to me, Jondesu is pretty much cleared. I don't really have many suspicions to share right now - I need to go back and reread the days I missed. My brain is pretty fried from puzzling though, making analyzing this game difficult. x.x Oh, and Doc, the comment about you being hard-cleared was a joke of sorts - I'm convinced the eliminators are Mistwraiths, and they're immune to emotional allomancy. You were rioted. Ergo, you cannot be a Mistwraith. EDIT: When people vote for Joe, could you please specify which Joe you're voting for? I keep thinking people are voting for the player named Joe when they might be voting for HH and it's confusing.

How do you know that the rioting was done during the last minute vote changing shenanigans? As I pointed out yesterday, it could just as easily have been planned and done well in advance. Anytime in the last ~15 hours, I believe, as that was when Doc voted on Dalinar. There were a bunch of people with two votes on them, and the Mistwraith Council could easily have decided to deflect the vote from Dalinar to Ecth well before things started changing at the last minute. It was Dalinar's vote that selected who the secondary vote target would be, as his put it from a tie with a few others at 2 to 3. Unless I'm totally mistaken, the last minute changes just added a couple more votes to Dalinar and Ecth, they didn't change whether rioting would save Dalinar or not. Also, I should point out that the first day mess hard-clears Doc, doesn't it? Emotional Allomancy doesn't work on Mistwraiths, right? Have we decided to go for Dalinar the Mistwraith this turn? Or are we tired of hanging Mistwraiths only to find out that they don't need to breathe? Might I suggest we try acid this time?

Ugh, guess he was telling the truth. Stupid Mistwraiths are waaay too durable. No lynch means no new 100% confirmed information, and the voting patterns aren't helpful because most of us are sure Dalinar is a Mistwraith, but some didn't vote for him because they thought it would waste the lynch (which it wound up doing)...

I'm back from the Mystery Hunt! It was fun. I'll try to catch up here... At this point, there's almost no chance of anyone but Dalinar being lynched, but in light of what he's said, is that the right thing to do? I am pretty sure Dalinar is an elim. His posts really scream "elim trying to survive for just one more turn" to me. We could be wrong, but I really don't think so. So, the question is, do we lynch Dalinar this turn or next turn? If Dalinar is telling the truth, this lynch will be wasted on him. But, at the same time, if he's lying, that's a great claim to try to get out of a lynch. I think it's clear he's an elim, but maybe we should just lynch him tomorrow when it's far more likely to work? If he's a Mistborn, then chances are high (100%?) he won't have Pewter tomorrow regardless of what he has today. If he's actually a Thug, well, he WAS attacked last turn. Do we know he was even lurched? Couldn't he have been protected by thugginess? It just seems that he would have no reason to lie if he WAS a Mistborn with Pewter this turn. I feel like it's unlikely that him surviving one more turn will be bad for us, unless he WAS a mistborn, in which case there's a chance he'll roll Steel next turn, which would be rather bad. Or if he really was a Mistborn and rolled Pewter NEXT turn... You can't get the same metal twice, right? So, if he rolled something besides Steel turn one, and rolled Pewter this turn, he has a 1/6 chance to roll Steel next turn? Is that how it works? Okay, I think I've convinced myself that it IS worth it to vote for Dalinar, especially since the elims seem to have vote manip powers so the lynch really needs to be solidified.

Yes, I was online at rollover, and I didn't vote because I find last minute voting to be extremely suspicious. Your line of logic here is a bit dangerous and misleading. If we're assuming that Dalinar is an elim and the elims rioted to save him, why do you think the person had to be online at the last second to do it? The elims would have known that Dalinar was going to vote for Ecth ahead of time, and the rioting order could have been put in place well before rollover. In fact, at rollover, it looked like Dalinar would be fine due to the tie, so an elim rioter might have retracted their rioting order at the last minute if they were watching at rollover. EDIT: I am not going to be around for the first chunk of this cycle due to the MIT Mystery Hunt, which starts at noonEST today and runs until some time on Sunday. I might be able to get on at some point during the Hunt, but it's unlikely. I should be back before Day 2 ends, and I'll try to catch up and post then. If anyone else here is doing the Hunt this year - good luck!

It was actually the first or second time someone posted a second vote on someone in an attempt to start a train on that person. Where I used to play Mafia, that person who cast the second vote was most likely an elim. Here, it turns out to not be true at all, in fact the opposite is true. Elims here seem to be much more cautious with their votes in general. But that's not really something you can rely on to identify or clear people, since it's not as useful a statistic as the opposite case is. My vote on Rae was an attempt to get her to answer my question. I was planning to remove it when she actually did answer, but she still hasn't done so... I guess I'll remove it anyway - I don't really think Rae is that suspicious.

That's not even close to what I said. I said I'm voting for her because she seems to want to know how many of each role there are in the town, and that seemed suspicious to me. The typo was just a typo - my opinion on Lurchers still stands, it just happens to be the same as what Rae thought now.

To be clear, I just want Rae to answer my question. I didn't vote for her because I disagree with her tactical suggestions, I voted on her because I want to know why she thinks learning the number of villagers in each role is helpful to the village rather than the eliminators. That's the part I found suspicious. Sorry if I contradicted myself in my post, but I don't see it that way, Ari. I said I didn't think we should be trying to determine exactly how many of each role there are, not that we should all hide our roles completely. I wasn't recommending vote manipulation, I was saying that vote manipulators should feel free to manipulate the vote if they think the lynch target is innocent (and there's someone close enough in votes for it to matter). I don't see how those are contradictory. I said that I think it's silly to say that vote manipulators shouldn't use their powers because it takes away information. Instead, it gives more information, in my view.

I thought anyone could open PMs with anyone else as long as a Tineye was alive?

I'm not sure I agree with all of those, Rae, though I do like some of them. Here are my thoughts, which I'd like to share before the mistwraiths come for me - That's pretty much all I've got right now, though I do want to say that the kill attempt on Wilson is interesting. It's either the first WGG I've actually seen around here, or it's yet another attempt to eliminate a known strong player before she gets going. Given how often Wilson dies early on, it's completely plausible that someone would protect her (or she could have protected herself). The later is far more likely, but the former is still theoretically possible. When was the last WGG around here? For now, I personally tentatively trust Wilson, though that's burned me pretty hard in the past (LG20 anyone?). For now, I think I'll put a vote on Rae. Rae, why are you so interested in knowing the role distribution among the villagers? Nyah cautiously entered the manor. She was a little worried by all the people here - she never felt comfortable around so many, especially not noblemen. She didn't know how the lord of this manor took the Lord Ruler's death and the subsequent liberation of the skaa. Would she be killed for joining the rest? As she approached, she noticed that there were other skaa in attendance, so she thought it would be okay. But then a thought came to mind, and she looked around nervously. The Mistwraiths are out there, somewhere. Unless.... Mistwraiths could take human forms. Did she know any of the other guests in the manor? Any of them could be a Mistwraith just waiting to eat her, body and soul, like they ate her parents! Did the Mistwraiths around here know about that? Were they the ones who did it? Nyah shivered despite the warmth and huddled into a corner where she tried to remain small, close enough to the rest to hear their conversation, but hopefully far enough away that she wouldn't be noticed by too many. It was going to be a long day.

Nyah stared at the body in the alleyway. It's happening, she thought. Just like my brother always said. Mistwraiths have come to kill us all, eat our bodies, and take our places. This man's warning... it didn't mention the mistwraiths at all. He must have been one of them, come to confuse us with this Koloss and Ruin and metal spikes nonsense! She took a step back - everyone knew that mistwraiths could appear to be dead if they wanted to be. Apprehensively, she carefully approached the body, then leaned down and gently poked the corpse. Hmm, feels just like flesh. Maybe if I poked him harder... She poked him again. So lifelike... Nyah suddenly looked up, a growing realization striking her. She was alone with the body, everyone else having left for some lord's manor. She squeaked and jumped to her feet, then ran from the feigning mistwraith. I need to know what's going on, she thought. Guess I'll have to sneak into that manor now, though it's likely one or more of the people inside are mistwraiths too... She shivered as she began to make her way toward the manor house. This was going to be a long and frightening night. I don't have many non-RP thoughts right now. I'm not very good at early game strategy - I'm much better when there's a lot of information to work from. Hopefully this starting at night thing will give us at least some info for Day 1.

Yeah, Arinian also had a scan-hiding Seal, which he successfully used at the right time... but it didn't do what we (or at least I) thought it would. I thought it would work like El's ability and make him show up as Innocent. Instead, it just made the scan fail, which didn't help since who would smoke someone who wasn't an eliminator? Ah well.

I KNEW IT!!! And they called me crazy. HA!

What time does this game start, by the way? I can't find it in the OP. Is it at midnight EST? If so, that makes sense - mistwraiths only come out at night, after all.

Yeah, we were in a terrible position near the end. Two openly confirmed villagers, one who could protect and one who could vote manip, and neither of us left had useful powers. There wasn't much we could have done at that point. We couldn't get either lynched, and we had a 50% chance of failing to kill one of them at night. Even if the game went on, we had no chance.

We would have lost anyway. You were the intended lynch target on the next day turn.

Did you fail to send in a kill order on time? =\

Clearly, there’s an active eliminator. There’s been a kill or kill attempt every cycle all game (unless I missed something? I’m not paying much attention to this game). The only really active players left are you and Araris, as far as I can tell. Unless the elims decided to do a WGG on night ten, I think it’s clear that Araris is not the eliminator. That really just leaves you, in my estimation. Plus, don’t we know that one of Wilson’s confidants leaked her role to the elims? Aren’t you the only one of those who is still alive and active? Also, are you claiming to have the exact ability that was used to save Arinian? Everything I see points straight to Seonid being an eliminator.

A few questions now that I've read the rules more carefully: 1. Does the Thug's once per game protection from death work on the lynch? 2. When a Rioter cancels their own vote by using their power, is their vote removed from the official tally? It seems like yes, but that seems like it would be really easy to figure out who is a Rioter. 3. If a Rioter both votes and riots a Smoker (or the one protected by the Smoker), is the Rioter's vote canceled even though they are unable to change the Smoker's vote? Or does the Smoker's vote count since they were essentially roleblocked? 4. When a Seeker attempts to use their power on a Spiked Smoker, are they told the Smoker is innocent, or are they told that their attempt to Seek someone was prevented by a Smoker? 5. Do eliminators get a night kill? I assume so, but I don't see it explicitly stated above. 6. Is there an eliminator kill on Night 0? 7. Can a Coinshot use their vig kill on Night 0? 8. Were my parents really eaten by Mistwraiths?

I'm signing up as Nyah, an orphan living on the streets. My parents left my brother and I one day, and I never knew why. Maybe they couldn't afford to feed my brother and I anymore, or maybe they just went for a short trip. All I know is that whenever I asked him, my brother always said that Mistwraiths ate my parents. Who knows, maybe they did? At the least, I know Mistwraiths are behind the recent troubles. Perhaps the Lord Ruler was eaten by one too? At the very least, they must be stopped, whatever the cost.