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Bugsy

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Posts posted by Bugsy

  1. 3 minutes ago, Sart said:

    Vote Tally:
    Coda (1): DeTess
    Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King
    HH (1): Megasif
    Wilson (1): Wilson
    Sart (5): Bugsy, Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience
    Matrim (1): Sart

    Well, this is annoying. I'm not Winsting, so at least my lynch won't end the game. Unfortunately, I'm not Bleeder either, so this is a waste of a lynch. I can literally prove my role after cycle rollover. Do you really think Bleeder will take off a cycle of killing in some attempt to frame me? Not likely, especially since I'm getting lynched anyways. I could move my vote off of Matrim, and onto Pyro, but I can't tie up the vote, because my power doesn't allow that. Plus, our biggest concern is finding Bleeder, and while I can't fully dismiss the conspiracy theory that Bleeder is Pyro, I don't think it's likely. I guess I'll move my vote from Matrim to Hemaluric Headshot. I've already ruled Wilson out. And between him and Coda, I think I suspect Hemalurgic Headshot more.

    Sart is still my biggest suspicion, but he raises a good point here. If Bleeder kills tonight and Sart takes a vote off himself, he's cleared. Plus, best case scenario for the village right now is a tied lynch that takes out multiple suspects, and that's more likely if I vote HH.

    Updated votecount:

    Coda (1): DeTess
    Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King
    HH (3): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy
    Wilson (1): Wilson
    Sart (4): Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience
    Matrim (1): Sart

  2. 20 hours ago, Sart said:

    Well, I have something of an alibi. I'm a Smuggler, and I removed Rae's vote cycle one. In retrospect, I should have removed other votes on Cycles 2 & 3, but I didn't due to the whole bandwagon situation. It's not a perfect alibi, but taking a page from Elkanah's book, do you really think Bleeder would use vote manipulation rather than a kill or scan. Admittedly, I was in some hot water, so vote manipulation wouldn't have been the worst idea, but I had already voted in self-preservation. I'll be removing a vote this cycle as well to prove my claim. Bleeder obviously isn't going to take time off from killing, since they are so close to winning.

    ...so on the night Bleeder didn't do a kill, you used a visible action, but then didn't use it either night Bleeder did use a kill? I'm not sure how that's an alibi :P 

    15 hours ago, DeTess said:

    I don't have any solid suspicions for Bleeder now that Sart has an ellibi.

    I don't really agree that he's cleared, personally. I've found your analysis to be fairly good this game, though - am I missing something?

    8 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

    I do feel wary of working with the elims in any regards. They know more than the village simply by nature, which means that they could easily backstab/trick us.

    It's a bit of a necessity right now, unfortunately. If the elims NK Winsting, we're all screwed. 

    6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

    (1) Even if you aren't Bleeder, the identity shouldn't be revealed to the elims because I'd rather the elims be careful in their kills. If we give them Winsting, they'll kill the rest of without any need for caution. So Winsting, please do not reveal yourself.

    ...

    (2) EDIT: Went through Sart's posts and found an interesting one during C2.

    Seems genuine to me. People who have been playing with Sart for a while - what do you think?

    (1) I disagree. The elims won't be careful in their kills. They'll just take potshots and hope they don't hit Winsting, or hope that if they do, he protects himself with his bodyguard power. The elims are still a big threat, and we should still be trying to find them, but they are all cleared not to be Bleeder, and that's what it looks like most people here are prioritizing right now

    (2) I would call that post mostly NAI. Elim!Sart would benefit from stifling discussion and having the village follow up on failed elim kills. Bleeder!Sart would benefit from the same, because every bodyguard protectee or gambling tycoon that's lynched is one less cycle he has to worry about it happening to him. Village!Sart would post it for the reasons he expressed in the post. His actual proposal there isn't something that exclusively benefits any one group, and it could be construed in favor of any read on him. 

    3 hours ago, Megasif said:

    We always let elims find the bleeder. They also never win with bleeder alive. And letting elims live is getting us further away from our wincon. And we play right into elims' hands. 

    (To expand: We don't know each other's alignments. Elims already have a distinction between village and elims. That's the biggest advantage already. Then they can pool their resources (roles) without being worried if they're getting tricked by the people they're working with. After getting bleeder, we still need to figure out elims. Right now, with a bleeder on the loose, elims can also feign solving to look villagery, making it even more difficult.

    This is suspicious to me, especially given the fact that there's nothing the elims can really do to Bleeder if they find her. Is there a reason no one is saying Megasif is a potential Bleeder suspect?

    2 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    Yeah. I get it. I'm just kinda sad because it's my first real SE plan that doesn't totally suck, and I think I did a pretty good job.

    EDIT: Flame On!

    It really doesn't suck at all, and it's the exact sort of thing I'd have tried in my first game or two. It ultimately detracts from a lot of the fun, though, because it removes the granularity and feels a lot more algorithmic. So it has nothing to do with you not doing a good job, it's just not an idea people here would tend to go for.

  3. Hmm. Actually, Sart, I'm rather suspicious of you at this point. 

    34 minutes ago, Sart said:

    Bartenders please shoot this man. I don't believe we should have a go between with the Elims and Winsting. Once we've taken care of Bleeder, the Elims have every reason to take Winsting out, and while we can technically protect him from the Elim kill, it would be extremely dificult. If Pyro survives the Bartender kill, perhaps we'll re-examine the non-Bleeder assumption.

    You know perfectly well that if a Bartender targets Pyro, the elims will likely have their bodyguard protect him the same night. Yet you say that if he survives the kill, you'd consider lynching him as a Bleeder candidate. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense from the perspective of anyone but someone trying to accomplish a mislynch, and the only person who wants a mislynch right now is Bleeder. 

    Also, you don't want the elims knowing who Winsting is, which puts him entirely in the line of fire for the night kill these next few cycles. Again, that's not a fantastic outcome for anyone but Bleeder, since it risks an instant loss for both factions on a single unlucky kill order.

    You also know Wilson's Impersonator role, and Bleeder has a role scan as one of her abilities. Wilson's got a reputation like the one you talked about Araris not having, and it'd make sense for Bleeder!You to scan her C1 if you didn't want to risk killing the Dowser or the 8th Octant Constable. 

    So, yeah. Sart, at least for now.

  4. 29 minutes ago, Sart said:

    4. Bleeder was inactive Cycle 1. This requires a player who forgot to send an action during the first cycle, but has been active ever since. The only player I can see doing that is @Bugsy. His only post Cycle 1 was apologizing because he had an essay due. I can see a scenario where Bugsy as Bleeder posts that quick snippet, but fails to send in an action.

    I didn't have the time I needed to useful to the lynch on Cycle 1, but I found enough time to post and let you all know where I'd be. It'd have been kinda dumb for me to do that and not use my action that turn, especially if I had a role as big as Bleeder :P 

    I can confirm I did take an action on Cycle 1, and an extortionist redirected it so I targeted myself. I don't know who that extortionist was, but they can verify that claim if they're willing to make themselves known. 

    My best guess is that your cases 2 or 3 happened. Pyro seems to believe that Araris was double tapped, and the escorts seem to be the most rational alternative if that isn't true. 

  5. 4 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

    Well you didn't. You said BG alternative... and even if you deny it what's it mean anyway.

    Mind telling us who?

    What they said was this:

    Quote

    If we can have the BG alternate between me and someone else who's cleared for bleeder...

    That means "have the BG protect me one night, and the other person the next, and alternate back and forth"

  6. 2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    No, because they'd scan as bartender twice.

    Are you sure? From one of Joe's posts: 

    Quote

    If the Renowned targets a player with two roles, they are told a random role. If they target that player again, they are told the other role.

    If a Renowned scans a player who has the Bleeder role and some other role, they'd see "bartender" only if the random role that got selected was "Bleeder". At least, that was my interpretation. @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm? 

  7. 8 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    We know ONE non-bleeder player, and they probably wouldn't have been our target anyways.

    How do you know a non-bleeder player? I'm guessing it's a renown scan, but you'd need two of those to actually clear someone.

    Edit: Wait, I'm dumb. You stalked someone who didn't target Karnage last night. 

  8. 5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    Yes. I actually pointed that out, and apparently Elbereth would have vetoed it if Joe suggested it.

    Ah, lucky :P Bleeder's been used as a doc spy before, which is why I was worried. In some LG or another, Bleeder!Rae was in the doc for the Odium faction, and wound up outing me when she negotiated a deal with Harmony. I've been a little paranoid of that ever since.

  9. 4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    And again, winsting should REALLY claim to me. Back me up on this guys. Otherwise they might get NKed

    Before you post their identity in the doc, are we certain that Bleeder isn't an elim? I don't see anything in the rules saying otherwise, and a kandra could just as easily impersonate a Constable as they could a Criminal.

  10. Alright, I was honestly getting a little bit of a bad gut read at first from DeTess, but their consistent high quality analysis has made them one of my strongest village reads in the game at this point. 

    22 minutes ago, DeTess said:

    Your maneuvering to throw shade on devotary for a bad outcome also reads a bit suspect to me. It'd give elim!you a win either way. Either bleeder is lynched, or you're set for a mislynch on Devotary.

    I completely missed this, but it's a really compelling point. Seems like it'd be good cover for a vote on Devotary later, without being committal enough to demand any action. Definite elim lean on on Archivist now.

    22 minutes ago, DeTess said:

    The best fit outside of Elkanah I can think of is Sart. I don't think they're an elim given their vote on Straw, but their self-preservation play doesn't sit well with me. Them being bleeder actually fits the facts better than them being an elim or a villager imho.

    This fits rather well with what @Arraenae was saying earlier, IIRC. I don't think it's likely to be the case, because I'm pretty convinced Elk is Bleeder. If it turns out Pyro isn't trolling and actually knows something we don't, though, it could be plausible. Depending on how Elk flips, I might do a deep dive on Sart's posts and see if anything jumps out at me.

  11. 12 hours ago, Arraenae said:

    I'm conflicted about Elkanah.  On one hand, even if Bleeder had about manipulation, they gain less from using it then from using their kill or skin. However, Elkanah specifically said that he wanted to use his vote manipulation to kill multiple people with the tie, which is significantly more efficient than using a kill action that will kill only one person. Still, nobody has counterclaimed him yet, so I think he is telling the truth at least about the vote manipulation. 

    I think that if Elkanah is Bleeder, they're lying about the vote manipulation. I don't think the absence of a counterclaim is as indicative as you suggest, though - like I said before, Elkanah claimed Smuggler, and any villager counterclaiming smuggler would be potentially outing themselves as the Dowser. That gives the Elims two kills in one cycle, between the real Elim kill and the arbitrary action used by the 8th Octant Constable. I mentioned the same suspicion yesterday, here:

    On 5/29/2020 at 2:39 PM, Bugsy said:

    I don't think this is very persuasive. We know one of the seven votes on Karnage was cancelled, but we have no proof that it was Araris', and whoever it was might have good reason not to claim.

    If I'm remembering right, the Dowser is a village smuggler, and I doubt they'd claim smuggler publicly unless they want to make themselves the target of the 8th Octant Constable. I think it's entirely plausible you're bluffing and just hoping the Dowser isn't willing to counterclaim. Or it could even be that you're hoping they do, depending on who exactly you are.

    I think it's plausible that both actions Elk has taken so far were kills that just happened to line up with the largest vote chain each time. It'd explain why we know they've only targeted people who we think were attacked by Bleeder.

     

     

     

    4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

    We'll probably want to use a lynch since we plausibly have only one bartender left and the elims have a decent chance of having a bodyguard who won't feel any obligation to protect Karnage assuming Elkanah dies as Bleeder today.

    Even now I think we're past the point of the elims protecting Karnage. Pyro's said a couple times that Karnage is on their hit list, since he's revealed himself more than willing to out elims. Whether Elk flips as Bleeder or no, I just don't see the elims continuing to protect Karnage at this point. 

    53 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

    Why indeed? I was just trying to get more info Cycle one. I had no idea Araris was going to be killed. I just wanted to take a vote off Karnage. And that wasn't even to save Karnage. I was down for you to lynch him and literally anyone else.

    ...

    I almost forgot to fulfill my promise. I figured I would give everyone enough time to move their votes somewhere more useful by claiming with some time left. I am Dowser. Hence I have only one ability. (the ability to soothe people as they die.) I sat with Araris in his dying moments and I tried to help Karnage pass on. Doubtlessly, I will now be elim killed since the 5th Octant Constable is after me. I recommend we find someone the village wants dead instead as I will get elim killed and we shouldn't be doing their work for them.

    If I am targeted and survive, then by all means lynch me as that would suggest I am bleeder.

    So, wait, you're claiming that you didn't know Araris was going to be killed in the first line, and then explaining the fact that you targeted him with wanting to "soothe people as they die". And on top of that, the role you're claiming isn't even soother, it's smuggler :P 

    I don't know what to make of this, but I'm guessing Elk is stalling.

    My best guess for what happens tonight is that Elk and the Elims both target Karnage with their kills, in a last ditch attempt to double tap and break his protection. This is their last opportunity to do so before we have an essentially immortal scanner (or one that can't be killed without first taking down the bodyguards, at least). If there are any bodyguards out there who didn't protect Karnage last night, please protect him this time around, and alternate with whoever protected him yesterday. We can get a good protection system going, and with how well we've damaged the Elim team so far, it'll put us in a promising position going forward.

    Edit: Realized I haven't actually voted yet. Elk

  12. 4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    Well, depends. In this hypothetical scenario, there's a good chance Wilson is Bleeder, so if she lives, I'll PM, and if she dies, I'll tell the thread.

    No, I won't do that.

    I don't think that's how bets work :P 

    In this hypothetical, you'd pay up if elk is Bleeder, right? So there's not a "good chance Wilson is Bleeder" in any universe where you have to pay up, unless you guys have some reason to believe there's two of them running around :P 

  13. 9 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    To whomever redirected me to myself:

    You really think I would execute the elim kill? Even though I was outed?

    Hah, I actually thought there was a chance you'd do it this cycle, and that was one of the more plausible reasons I saw to let you live today :P 

    Guess that plan is shot. Oh well :P 

    Edit: @Matrim's_Dice One of the Elims has to send in the kill as their action each cycle. Only one of them can do it. Apparently, an extortionist got the idea of making Pyro target himself last turn, in the hopes that he'd use the elim kill and be forced to attack himself. 

  14. 8 hours ago, DeTess said:

    Given the amount of extra kills, there were at least two village bartenders, though one of those might have been Striker. Still, that means we've got one left. For this reason, I'd like to say I'm against lynching Pyro this cycle, despite them being a revealed elim. We know there are village bartenders that could take care of that, and going for a lynch on another revealed elim again could end up with us short on info afterwards. So, having said that I'm going to put a vote on the archivist for now. Among those living and not pyro, I'm most suspicious of Archivist and Sart right now.

    I really don't like this. I think it's likely the Elims have a bodyguard, and there's no way that bodyguard doesn't protect Pyro on Cycle 4. It also opens the door for an extortionist to redirect the kill, or for Pyro to be a Tycoon, or any other number of complicating factors that keep us from getting what should be a sure kill. 

    2 hours ago, little wilson said:

    me actually agree with tess bout the pyro - mostly cuz me is hoping leaving pyro alive for a little longer might give info. of course me saying this turns everything he says into an iyky but iiiiiii doooooonnntt caaaarrreee.

    he not aman. he being outed elim left alive dont scare me.

    not sure where to vote yet. maybe archivist? maybe br following the dead orlok's hunch? my phone wants to capitalize orlok's name. me must reteach it that the lowercase way is the correct way. the only way.

    Hmm. I'm suspicious about Tess, but you seem good this game and I think I trust your instinct on this one. 

    IIRC, Orlok was suspicious of BR and Shard, right? I'm going to take a deeper look at some of his posts tonight, but if you know some of his reasoning from PMs I'd love to hear it. 

    1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

    Ah, so I did. 

    As promised, I will reveal one of my abilities is a Smuggler. I invite anyone else to explain where Araris'vote went cycle one. Why, you ask, did I soothe his vote. I wanted to orchestrate a tie. Surely if one death cycle one got us information, three or even four would have helped exponentially.

    Sadly, rollover is at three am my time and I slept through the alarm I set to help ensure the deaths.

    I invite anyone who wants to to counterclaim. If no one comes, I am a Smuggler and therefore not bleeder. Pyro outing me shows I'm not a constable

    I don't think this is very persuasive. We know one of the seven votes on Karnage was cancelled, but we have no proof that it was Araris', and whoever it was might have good reason not to claim.

    If I'm remembering right, the Dowser is a village smuggler, and I doubt they'd claim smuggler publicly unless they want to make themselves the target of the 8th Octant Constable. I think it's entirely plausible you're bluffing and just hoping the Dowser isn't willing to counterclaim. Or it could even be that you're hoping they do, depending on who exactly you are.

  15. Jesus Christ, you guys are actually trying to kill me here. Remind me to never get behind on this game again.

    Also, I typed out my responses below as I read the thread. If I respond with outdated information, it's because I was responding before I read the more recent posts.

    On 5/27/2020 at 5:21 AM, DeTess said:

    @Karnage, out of curiosity, why didn't you claim gambler? Given the D1 lynch situation, it might have caused the entire lynch to switch off you.

    The kill on Araris is also interesting. I don't think they where particularly trusted, so its an odd kill for the elims. Bleeder likewise wouldn't really want to shoot for a potential elim, so I can't see Bleeder submitting that kill either, and if she had, ti would require the elim team to abstain from killing, which makes no sense (meanwhile, bleeder could go and scan people instead of killing, which is just as good fro them if they are not under pressure).

    The only good elim motive for an Araris kill I can see is if they wanted the village to think things about Sart. The obvious play would be that they where trying to make Sart look good, but that might be obvious enough that they'd instead want us to think the opposite, so its mostly just a deep IKYK.

    I think I'm going to put my vote back on Sart for now. I really don't like how they voted purely for self-preservation last cycle.

    edit: @A Joe in the Bush, would a double-tap be mentioned as such? That is, if Araris had been the target of Both bleeder and the elims (and/or, if that had been an even a cycle, a bartender), would we be told?

    I agree that a claim should have been made. Not sure why he didn't make one.

    I'm also put off a bit by the kill on Araris. My analysis earlier actually had me going down a bit of a rabbit hole on him, until I saw he'd died. Maybe it was the result of a redirect? I don't think the IKYK with Sart is a plausible explanation. I don't feel like it's an obvious enough connection for them to bluff us out like that.

    On 5/27/2020 at 5:46 AM, The_Archivist said:

    I was a little hesitant about this at first, but it's a fairly obvious thing, so I'll say it. Karnage is either a Gambling Tycoon or Flogs. If he is Flogs, we must not let him die. If Flogs dies, both the elims and the villagers will be much closer to losing, so we can work together on this. The bodyguards can protect him, but not twice in a row, which means they need to communicate somehow.

    If a bodyguard trusts @little wilson enough to believe her claim that she is a gossip, he can PM her, saying he is a bodyguard. If more than one bodyguard does that, and she really is a gossip, she can send them a PM, telling them which one will protect this cycle, and who the next one. If only one does she can warn three people she thinks might be bodyguards, and tell them someone else is already protecting him.

    I know this requires a lot of trust, and if she's Bleeder, she knows the identity of some bodyguards, which is horrible. I still believe it's our best bet. The odds of wilson being Bleeder are pretty slim, all things considered, and if she's an elim gossip, I would rather take that chance than let Bleeder target a potential Flogs. If she's a villager or elim of a different role, I don't think we actually lose enough to not risk it.

    If Karnage is just a Gambling Tycoon, this is irrelevant, but I would rather not risk it, so I'm asking all bodyguards out there to try this plan.

    I... really don't like the idea of having a mayor, and I don't think Wilson would want to be the mayor with her current playstyle either. This isn't meant to be a commentary on whether it's good strategy, it's just an element of the meta I don't love. 

    On 5/27/2020 at 6:22 AM, DeTess said:

    @The ArchivistI don't think its a good idea to use anyone who claims gossip as a go-between until their alignment is more solidly known. I'm not so much worried about little wilson (or anyone else claiming gossip for this plan) being bleeder, but about her being an elim. Bleeder can't really do anything about the bodyguards revealed to her without risking being revealed herself. The elims likely have far more options, however.

    Yeah, this is a good point too. Can't help but assume the Elims have at least one gossip - giving the village a near monopoly on PMs isn't Joe's style.

    On 5/27/2020 at 9:40 AM, Straw said:

    I find it very odd that Karnage didn't roleclaim at the end of the cycle. @Karnage any explanation for this? You must have seen that you were the most likely lynch candidate.

    I'll put my vote on Karnage until he explains.

    Again, agree with this. Karnage should have told everyone he'd survive as soon as it became obvious he was the lynch target. As it was, he lost us our chance to get info C1.

    On 5/27/2020 at 0:34 PM, Kynedath said:

    I also have a moderate trust of Straw since they had two votes removed from them. I don't feel like the eliminators would do that, it would have been an inefficient use of their actions.

    It's possible. This Straw thing is actually a little suspicious for me, though. Eliminators would have no reason to move votes to protect Straw if he was one of them, and they know we know that. I feel like that was done in such a way they knew would draw attention to Straw, but which would also be dismissed by everyone as a transparent elim ploy. I think it's a double bluff, if I had to guess

    On 5/27/2020 at 0:52 PM, DeTess said:

    Araris defended Sart a bit when Sart got voted on.

    Also, my apologies if the one that PM'd me about this expected me to be more subtle, but: @Furamirionind, could you explain why you targeted Araris last cycle? ( furamirionind )

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. Thanks for finding us our first elim, stalker :P 

    On 5/27/2020 at 3:06 PM, Karnage said:

    Okay I am taking a HUGE risk.

    I am Flogs

    I am also a Gambling Tycoon

    I was trying to decide whether it was a risk I should take but seeing as the conversation is already steering towards the idea that I am Flogs, I figured that Bleeder would be onto me soon anyways. 

    Few things I was thinking

    -There are probable 2 Bodyguards in the Village and maybe one in the elim faction.

    - Elim faction wants to keep me alive so that Bleeder doesn't beet them

    -If protection is coordinated the each turn I can be protected from Bleeder and the village is that much more closer to winning (same with the elim faction

    -If the Bodyguards each send me a PM offering their protection (I promise not to reveal your role to the thread unless I get permission) then I can respond each hour to one (that one would then protect me) while the others protect others on that turn. Each turn I will respond to each one and hopefully forever stay safe from the likes of Bleeder.

    - Not only does this help the village but it also helps the elims (except for the fact that I can scan people:o)

    Speaking of Scanning-

    I decided to scan straw because they are very hard to read, because they are so integral to the discussion in every game that I have been in with them. I scanned them and Joe replied with saying that they are Constable. Straw

    Are we allowed to screen shot pm's? I will wait for a response before I post again.

    Hopefully this stirs the pot for the better for the village. If you are a bodyguard and you want either the village or elim team to win I suggest you pm me. 

    -Karnage

    ...so I know I said I wasn't expecting that last thing, but this seems determined to one up it. I don't know if this is true, because I'm still a little suspicious of you, but I don't see this strategy ending well for an eliminator. I think that the only roles to pull this would be whoever's actually Flogs, a bluffing villager, or Bleeder.

    For each of those cases:

    Actually Flogs: Well, crem. You've drawn the attention of the elims, by outing them, and also the attention of Bleeder.

    Bluffing Villager: My immediate reaction towards this possibility was thinking it was a dumb thing to do, but I may have rushed to judgement. It would mean throwing a pretty big wrench in a lot of things, but drawing Bleeder's fire for a cycle might actually be a good strategy.

    Bleeder / Tycoon: Clever. If you get attacked by anyone now, it'll say a bodyguard defended you, and for good reason. It also means you'll never be lynched. The only threat to you here is a counterclaim, and a counterclaim makes Flogs vulnerable. Also, Bleeder gets a scan just like Flogs, so it's entirely plausible you scanned Straw and know he's an elim.

    I'm not sure which is more likely, honestly. I kinda hope it's the last one, though. That'd be a fantastic con to pull in your first game :P 

    On 5/27/2020 at 3:27 PM, little wilson said:

    sigh. just gonna say right now that joe is a troll and you probs shouldnt have roleclaimed cuz I wouldnt be surprised if theres only one bodyguard to prevent exactly what you are suggesting. things like that have happened in previous games joes run soooo thats fun.

    regardless i said straw was off. what say all you peeps who were like nooooooo straw be a good one! dont kill him!

    Yeah, Straw is definitely the most suspicious at this point. 

    On 5/27/2020 at 3:32 PM, Arraenae said:

    Pyro. Chances are that Karnage is going to get a Bleeder kill aimed their way after this claim and will die soon anyways. A villager has pretty much no reason to falsely claim that they scanned someone as an eliminator, so the easiest way to verify this is to lynch Straw. The fact that you don't want to makes me think that you might be on Straw's team.

    Honestly, I'll probably move my vote onto Straw later today, but I'd like to milk just a little bit more discussion out of this cycle. Please? Pile-ons tell us nothing until we get lynch results back.

    This still feels weird to me. Not voting on Straw yet, even when he's a clear elim read, but saying you probably will later? It's a good way to not commit to voting on him unless he's going to die anyways, and good cover for shifting your vote at the last minute. I might be influenced a bit much by my bad gut read earlier, but you're not making it easy on me :P 

    On 5/27/2020 at 3:59 PM, Straw said:

    No, you can't screenshot PMs. Read the SE rules.

    First of all, I'm not a Constable, so I know you're lying. That means you're doing a gambit. You could also be extorted, and incorrect by accident.

    I see a few possibilities:

    1. You are Flogs, and were extorted. In this case, we should attempt to keep you alive. However, I'm curious as to why you didn't try to reveal your findings through someone else, rather than claiming to the thread? You're currently not too much danger of being lynched, what with DeTess stalking Fura, and I think people would be fairly willing to jump on a train on me if someone said that Flogs had scanned me. I also don't see why you'd claim so early in the cycle. It makes little logical sense, as you'd probably want to take more time to evaluate the situation and your options if you were actually Flogs.
    2. You are a villager attempting a gambit. I could completely believe that a new player would try something like this. However, it doesn't seem that well thought out. I could see you basically just using it as a super-vote on me, and praying that I'm an elim. I could also see you doing it to try to draw Bleeder's attention, allowing the real Flogs to stay alive for longer. In this case, I'm not sure why you'd claim I'm an elim, instead of claiming I'm a villager. The final thing I could see for this option, and the most unlikely in my opinion, is you trying to get actual elims to contact you, so you can out them to the thread and admit that you didn't actually scan me. Sorry for wrecking this if it is what you're trying, but I have to defend myself.
    3. You are an eliminator attempting to escape the lynch. Doing this would probably be a decent decision for the elim team. You can get an easy mislynch on me, and then try to defend yourself by saying you were extorted. As an added bonus, you can out all the bodyguards that contact you to the elim team, allowing the elim team to wipe them out. Sure, it'd most likely end in a lynch on you, but it'd be good for the elim team in general.
    4. You are Bleeder with Gambling Tycoon as well, and are attempting to place yourself in a position of trust. I think that this would actually be a very strong strategy for Bleeder. Drawing the bodyguard kills onto yourself would stop bodyguards from interfering with your other kills. Flogs could try to counterclaim via an intermediary, but you could probably deflect long enough to out them. Once they died, Winstig would be in play, and you'd just have to pray for their death. After all, Bleeder doesn't have to be alive to win. If you lynch me, you could just claim you'd been extorted when I flip village. You could then use some of your alignment scans to establish yourself as Flogs by giving some correct reads. You could explain the absence of kills as Bleeder testing your defenses or trying to throw suspicion on you.

    Yeah, so those are my thoughts.

    Furamirionind. Karnage.

    If 4 is the case, I think it's more likely he actually scanned you and you flipped Elim. I know some players like the motto "confirmed good does not mean confirmed right" - for Karnage, in this particular case, "confirmed right does not mean confirmed good". 

    On 5/27/2020 at 4:58 PM, Matrim's_Dice said:

    So I had this big proposition but it looks like everyone is voting Straw already.

    Basically it was, let's lynch Straw this cycle. If Karnage is Flogs and is telling the truth, then we found an elim. Yay.

    It Karnage isn't Flogs, then oof, sorry Straw. But then we can all lynch Karnage anyway for C3.

    The more I think about it the more I realize how stupid it would be to imitate Flogs. That is basically asking for Bleeder to kill you and everyone to be suspicious. So yeah, I trust Karnage at the moment.

    Unless he is Bleeder :P Then it seems like a pretty good strategy. 

    On 5/27/2020 at 4:52 PM, Orlok Tsubodai said:

    If Straw is evil, as I believe him to be, I'm pretty convinced that BR and Shard are evil. Pyro I am absolutely convinced is evil either way. Another long post being worked on, will follow at some point in the next four hours.

    Hmm. Could you give a bit of an explanation as to why BR and Shard? I don't remember anything substantive that would point to that, although it's possible. 

    On 5/27/2020 at 5:49 PM, Arraenae said:

    Okay. Let's look through all the possible scenarios for Karnage and Straw’s alignment.
     

    1. Karnage is Flogs, and Straw is a Constable.

    Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they are Flogs. Once they get verification of that, Bleeder will attempt to kill Karnage. To win, Bleeder only needs to kill two people, Flogs and Winsting, which means that Bleeder can afford to spam kills against Flogs until one breaks through. I don't think that Karnage will be able to successfully coordinate bodyguard protects long enough to stay alive the whole game. 

    For one thing, Karnage assumes that there are at least two bodyguards in the game. This is a Joe game. Nothing is guaranteed. Secondly, Karnage assumes that at least two bodyguards will be willing to protect him. If, like he assumes, there is one Constable bodyguard and one Criminal bodyguard, I'm not sure that the Constable bodyguard would bother. In this scenario, Karnage just outed Straw. That probably burned through any goodwill the Constables might have towards them. The Constables have every reason to expect that Karnage will continue trying to lynch them. 

    What's more, even assuming that there are at least two bodyguards in the game, and assuming that they are willing to protect Karnage, I don't see this arrangement working out for long. What if the bodyguards don't want to use their 1 PM solely to check in on Karnage? What if a bodyguard finds some other villager who they also think is likely to die? What if a bodyguard goes inactive and forgets to submit a protective order? For all of those reasons, I assume that Karnage is not going to live very long. Bleeder has every incentive to keep attacking them until they are dead.

    If we assume that Karnage is Flogs, I don't think it's worth lynching them to verify, because of this likely death. We will know their alignment once Bleeder kills them. I expect it’ll take three cycles, max. If they’re miraculously still alive by then, we can re-evaluate the situation.
     

    2. Karnage is a Criminal, and Straw is a Constable.

    In this case Karnage would’ve guessed and is trying to play Flogs to absorb a Bleeder kill. Very unlikely.
     

    3. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Criminal.

    Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die. (The only way for the Constable team to fake a result like this would be for them to spend multiple night kills on Karnage, while also protecting them, which means they spend a lot of resources to gain very little.)

    There are several ways to see this scenario is likely. If Bleeder does not attack Karnage, then we lynch Karnage. if Straw’s alignment is found to be village, either through an alignment scan or lynch, then we lynch Karnage. If Bleeder attacks Karnage and Karnage dies, then obviously we will know Karnage’s alignment. We can do all of that without having to lynch Karnage this cycle.

    If this scenario turns out to be true, we probably can learn things about the Constable team. There are certain players who I cannot see agreeing to this plan, which means that we can rule them out if they have similar times of online activity as Karnage.
     

    4. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Constable.

    Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die.

    In this case, the Constable team would basically be trading Straw’s life for Karnage. I'm not sure why they would do that, because we can still use the methods outlined in scenario 3 to get an idea of Karnage's alignment, and then the Constable team would have basically traded in two lives for nothing. I really don't think this is likely.
     

    5. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Constable.

    Bleeder is automatically protected against kills as if they had a bodyguard. It's possible this means that Karnage would be able to attack themselves and survive, and get a writeup saying that they were attacked and survived. I could even see Joe giving the single serial killer role an extra life just to make sure that they don't die early in a scenario like what just happened here. Again, this is a Joe game, so role distributions are likely to be trolly, but it's not impossible.

    This scenario is actually the hardest to disprove. If we lynch Straw, and find that he is a Constable, that would mean this is scenario 1 or 5. One way to disprove a situation like this would be if we found every single bodyguard in the game, and they said that none of them were protecting Karnage on a cycle that they were attacked. This would be really hard to do, for obvious reasons. Another way would be for Flogs to counterclaim, but in that case Karnage would kill the counterclaimer and be halfway to completing their wincon. We’d probably lynch Karnage the next turn, but that’s closer than I’d like for things to get.

    Out of all the scenarios that have been outlined, this is the only one that can't be immediately disproven or doesn't have negative effects for Karnage. If we assume that Karnage is a rational actor, then this becomes much more likely.
     

    6. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Criminal.

    If Straw flips Criminal when Karnage claimed that he's a Constable, then the next obvious lynch target is Karnage. This scenario is really, really unlikely. 
     

    7. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is Flogs.

    Well, why try to get Straw lynched then if Straw is immune to the lynch? Near impossible.

    All good analysis. The actual content is NAI, and my gut read on this post is actually good. I'll go through and check some of your posts in more detail tonight, I suppose, because you keep throwing my reads off. 

    On 5/27/2020 at 10:12 PM, little wilson said:

    pyyyyyyyyyyrrrrrrrrroooooooo he be so sus - he sent it about the time he voted on karnage.

    Yup, that's definitely suspicious. Straw and Pyro seem most likely to me as elims right now.

    23 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    I read your posts Orlok. You can tell by how I stopped spelling your name wrong.

    Right, you guessed me. Good job. I'm an elim.

    The post at the beginning of the game, ironically, was something I had decided upon before I joined. 

    Also, I didn't lie to Wilson. I was telling the truth, as we think there's a decent chance Arais was doubletapped. When I die and flip Stalker, maybe you'll believe me.

    EDIT: Flame On!

    ...well, then. Straw and Pyro seem to be confirmed elims right now :P 

    13 hours ago, DeTess said:

    He has said some (in my opinion) suspicious things, and he targeted Araris last cycle (as determined using the stalker power). Araris was targeted by the elims (or possibly, but unlikely, bleeder) to kill him, so anyone targeting araris is suspect.

    Regarding suspicious actions, some of Fura's suggestions this cycle could be construed as trying to protect Straw (such as the suggestion to lynch someone else and let straw be killed by a village bartender, who we don't even know exists yet). He also did some analysis last cycle on elim team size that conveniently ignored the point at which the elims have a basic majority, instead focusing purely on when they can disperse the party. This stood out to me because I don't think Fura would have missed that if he had been doing that analysis pure, rather than trying to sell a specific agenda.

    Hmm. Actually, isn't it the case that during this cycle Fura was voted on by Straw and voted on Pyro? He did both without making really sizable arguments for why either was bad, too. That feels like a distancing strategy to me, and one that Fura was a part of. I say he's priority number 3 right now, at least on my list. 

    11 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

    Bleeder has a scan you know.

    @Bugsy Orlok was outed as an elim, but we've done the math with the elim's vote manip, and we need you to vote on him to seal the deal. Please, act now!

    I swear you made me question my sanity for a minute when I read this :P 

    11 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

    I was outed? When? I thought we agreed to keep my alignment quiet, Pyro. What's the point in busing the three of you if you go and reveal my alignment?...

    You're not helping with the whole "questioning my sanity" thing, just for the record :P 

     

    From here to being current, there's enough trolling I'm not going to even attempt to analyze it. I'm officially current now, though.


    TLDR: Killing Straw and Pyro are our priorities right now, but with the suspicious action Fura took last night and the fact that he seemed to be distancing from Straw and Pyro before they were burned today makes me suspect him as well. I'm also curious if any redirect moved someone to target Araris - I don't know why the Elims would kill him otherwise, frankly. 

     

  16. Storms, guys, you’re making it impossible to catch up. All I’ve done so far is read through C1, and it’s already past 4AM by the time I’m starting to actually write my responses. Here goes nothing.

    I just want to start by saying, I love the no unvoting rule. Makes any vote cast a lot higher stakes, makes for more meaningful vote swings, and leaves a more solid trail to follow in later analysis. It’s something I’d love to see in future games, as long as it doesn’t wind up being problematic here.

    Now for my thoughts on the actual things that’ve been said:

    Quote

    DeTess: There's both an elim team and a serial killer, and each of these can only win alone, so the elims will be looking to eliminate bleeder. However, bleeder needs to keep the elims around in some form, because bleeder loses if the party disperses, and if the village has reason to believe that all elims have been killed, they can safely disperse, whether bleeder is alive or not…

    Because Bleeder's survival reads as a bodyguard protection,w e can't actually trust anyone that gets saved by a bodyguard, which is unfortunate. Luckily, the elims have a vested interest in Bleeder dying, so they might just decide to double-tap anyone that gets bodyguard protected

    I’d honestly interpret the situation the other way around. The only people Bleeder’s incentivized to kill are villagers, and the Elims benefit from Bleeder’s continued existence to mask their own actions / detract from the village’s focus. Villagers also need to kill Bleeder to get the automatic dismissal of the party, whereas Eliminators can leave her alive if they want.

    Quote

    Xinoehp: Interestingly enough, Flogs might actually be safer sharing their identity with a scanned constable instead of a scanned villager, as the constables have a vested interest in keeping him alive. Not that they should do this, of course, but its interesting to think about.

     

    Uhhh. Let’s not have our seer claim to the eliminators, that sounds like it’d be a problem :P

    Quote

    Since kill actions against Bleeder fail, she can only die by being lynched. Since the Constables very much want her dead, they will presumbably encourage her lynch. Interesting…

    More people picking up on this “Elims want Bleeder dead” idea. I really don’t think it’d be right, though, at least if the Elims are playing strategically

    Quote

    Striker: I would not put it past Joe to put in something like 9 elims this game, just to throw us off since we're all probably assuming that there's 7-8 elims based on percentage alone. At that point, I would assume that the elims wouldn't have very many powerful roles. That would be more than made up by the extra elim though.

     

    With a role madness game, I don’t think Joe would make a larger-than-usual Elim team. That said, they do need 2/3 control to disperse, so it’s possible

    Quote

     

    Wilson: joe made my gm pm all lowercase and it made me happy to see. im not even sad now that im not evil - id been planning on talking in the doc like this cuz it wouldve been hilllllarrrious and now i dont get to but its fine cuz im a gossip and therefore i get to talk in my pms like this its so wonderful. thats a roleclam btw. roleclam? whered the i go? fingers whyd you miss the i.

     

    Wilson, you’re fantastic. This'll be a fun game :P

    Quote

    Straw: On a separate note, xino's post bothers me when I look at it more. Some of the stuff is literally just repeating the role descriptions. It feels like a way to make it look like he's saying a lot while actually saying very little. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on him.

    Hmm. This seems plausible.

    Quote

     

    Matrim: The only problem now is that I have to vote on someone else.... Archivist I guess, following Straw's pattern of the first inactive person on the list. I'm not gonna say Araris because I don't want to start a train on someone who hasn't posted anything.

     

    Well. The meta is definitely that poke votes should go on the same person as previous ones, because it actually makes them a credible threat. That said, Matrim doesn’t quite know the meta, so this is probably NAI. 

    That said, if Araris is elim, be very suspicious of Matrim.

    Added later: well, scratch that theory. Whoops.

    Quote

    Karnage: Also... Little Wilson, I get that you want to relax and try a different play style, and I don't want you to change just for me, this is just a comment but, your new play style is very disconcerting and confusing to say the least. I can't tell if your just doing this to discombobulate everyone, or really just to relax and play a different style, or if you are using ti to hide any suspicious note that could somehow be written in.

    Can confirm that this is just Wilson having fun. And honestly, I’m here for it :P

    Quote

     

    The Young Pyromancer: And TBH, Bleeder's probably going to be around for a long time, because the odds of finding them are more or less 1/30

     

    That’s perhaps a bit too pessimistic. Serial Killers don’t have a great track record of surviving in SE, and I feel like a role madness game in this vein doesn’t really help matters for them. My guess is Bleeder won’t survive to the endgame, with all the powers flying around. 

    Quote

    Orlok: Can anyone with more experience playing with Coda tell me if this sort of platitude is typical of them? It strikes me as a bare faced attempt to appear village.

    Hmm. Wouldn’t have picked this out myself, but it seems plausible. Worth keeping in mind, though I'd consider it a relatively minor factor in any analysis.

    Quote

    Pyromancer: This means the Constables probably have some other way to deduce who is Bleeder, such as a scanner or Stalker. Though considering the size of the game, they probably have at least one anyways.

    I rather doubt the Elims would have a stalker, that role seems kinda useless to them. Maybe they have a scanner, just so they can be sure not to hit Winston in the endgame? It feels like giving elims non-offensive roles is sort of a waste, though. 

    Quote

     

    Rae: If he gives this much info in one day, how much more could he give us if we waited a few cycles before killing him? Verdict: I want to keep Straw alive. He's an active player prodding info out of reticent players and he's reminding me of some of the old guard. The sheer amount of reads he's putting out reads as mildly villagery, too, and I think discussion will be benefited a lot by keeping him alive to talk.

     

    My gut is screaming at me not to trust you, @Arraenae. I’m not sure why, though. The closest I can come to articulating it is, it seems to me you want Straw alive as a soundscreen. Having C1 and C2 both focus on Straw-based controversy means he’ll give another cycle of cover.

    Quote

    Rae: I know ties end with both parties being lynched. Guess the posters after me are really going to be able to make the choice, eh? Consider this a Chinese Fire Drill of sorts.

    This isn’t making my read any better. Something about your post feels off to me, and this flippant comment seems like a good way to distance yourself from an unfavorable lynch.

    Quote

     

    Orlok: A day one lynch should always be about information gathering. As much as I've been incredibly impressed by Straw's activity and engagement, the number of interactions he has had with other players suggests to me that we could generate a significant amount of information on D1 by lynching him at this point.

     

    Ehh. Disagree. This would have a hugely chilling effect on D1 contribution, and it’s easier to get info by lynching someone like xinoehp, who’s related to the focal controversy but not the actor driving the majority of discussion.

    Quote

     

    Orlok: My philosophy has long been that the village always needs to address the information imbalance with eliminators - in fact, that is the core mechanic of the game. A day one lynch based on suspicion is highly unlikely to be accurate - the suspicions are based on limited information, and limited connection between players. Day one therefore ought to be about finding as much information as possible, and identifying as many connections between players as we can.

     

    I agree, again, that we need to level the information imbalance. I don’t think this would be the way to do that, and I think it would be a negative direction for the meta to head. 

    Quote

    DeTess: This post really bothers me. I can see a villager moving their vote to ensure they survive, but I don't see them moving it someone they actively think is village, especially where there's quite some time left for them to get an actual suspicion out there. Add to that the hedging/lampshading on karnage flipping village and I'm now pretty suspicious of Sart (fura).

    Yeahh, don’t love the look of this. In some cases I’d consider it NAI, but here it feels a bit more suspicious than not.

    Alright. That’s all of what I wanted to note as I went through C1. I wanted to be caught up tonight, but considering it's nearly 5AM, that doesn't seem likely.

    I'll be sure to do C2 before rollover, and will do my best to keep up to date after that. Playing catch-up in this game was not fun - want to avoid it going forward, if I can :P

  17. What the absolute storms happened here.

    Right, well, I’m going to look through posts again to see who tried to shape the lynches on constables away from Gaea. That said, one such person was obviously Alv. (Of course, it’s wholly possible the Elims saved him to frame him, but knowing what we now do about Gaea I concur with El’s analysis from last cycle - I’m willing to make this lynch)

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