Bugsy
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Posts posted by Bugsy
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Uhhhh, guys, do keep in mind that Matrim has said they’ll be manipulating the vote against me
I’d appreciate if our tie attempts take that into account and have one more vote on Mega than he has right now
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3 hours ago, DeTess said:
Any particular arguments you want to make beyond that? Last cycle made me pretty suspicious of you, but in all honesty, I'm having trouble fitting you into a standard-size elim team. An 8 person elim team would have zillah, the extortionist and one more member, and you're not the extortionist. And that one more could be a lot of people, including BR (who has been a major inactive suspect).
BR's also been the suspect most conveniently pushed by a lot of people who then backed off the Silber lynch, to be fair. I think it's entirely plausible that they're an inactive villager that the elims want us to kill so we waste a lynch
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5 hours ago, Sart said:
I've suspecting for a while that Winsting is one of the inactive players, and it's going to be tough to tell which one he is with the lack of information. However, once Bugsy is gone, we can start the Contribution Crusade again.
Yeahhh, no. There’s no chance the elims let the village lynch Winsting. That’s a loss for them.
Let’s imagine what happens if Winsting is leading in the lynch. Is there any chance that one of the elims doesn’t unmask to warm us off? Having Winsting up for the lynch is a best-case scenario for the village, because it means the elims have to sacrifice a teammate just to continue the game.
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Just now, A Joe in the Bush said:
Being lynched does not roleblock you.
I'm not sure i understamd the second question.
They're saying that if someone extorted Zillah to target person x, person x's vote would have disappeared. The fact that it didn't means an extortionist didn't force Zillah to target someone who actually cast a vote
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Before manipulation:
Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist
Silber (6): bugsy, detess, experience, xinohep, kynedath, devotary
DeTess (1): emiAfter manipulation:
Bugsy (5): Matrim, Megasif, Mist, Sart, Silber
Silber (5): Bugsy, DeTess, Devotary, Experience, Kynedath, Xinohep
DeTess (1): EmiThe only difference here is that one of the votes on Silber was removed. Either it was smuggled off, or an extortionist targeted an inactive impersonator, I'm not sure which. @Sart, did you smuggle a vote off? I'm still leaning village on you, because I doubt the elims have repeat roles, and if you tell us you're the smuggler you'll have saved us from a bit of a wild goose chase.
Based on TJ's analysis, either Silber or Zillah had to have been the elim impersonator. Given the absence of an impersonation last night, and given Zillah's inactivity that same cycle, I'd say they're almost certainly an elim. Because tonight is an even cycle, let's have a village bartender kill them if one's available - no use wasting a lynch on someone who's already basically dead to rights, especially when it would destroy a cycle's worth of discussion.
As for who else is suspicious, I'd go with Megasif. He's been cagey for awhile, and acted as if he was considering the Silb lynch without ever showing signs of following through. At first, he based his opposition on a series of clear misunderstandings - first about what happens when there's a tie, second about me supposedly 'threatening' the village, etc. Those misunderstandings all strike me as a little too convenient for his purposes, as he forced DeTess and I to spend most of the cycle answering his specious arguments instead of actually doing further analysis. Even once those arguments were addressed, he maintained the same course of action, now absent any justification, and disappeared for the remainder of the cycle. He's very suspicious to me, and I think he should be our lynch target today.
Oh, and tonight's the night the elims can extort me and redirect my kill, but I doubt that's what they'll do. More likely, they'll extort Winsting into making a kill, since they know his identity and it sets them up to have another escort every even cycle for awhile. That means we either need the elims to roleblock both me and Winsting, or we need to redirect / roleblock the elim extortionist.
Edit: Oh, right, some more RP. Here's cycles 2 and 3
QuoteWell. Her plan could be going a little better. She’d set out to observe Lady Arielle and see what information she could glean, but unfortunately she’d been cornered by an unpleasant little man she didn’t recognize. Apparently he and her most recent snack had known each other.
Apparently the man she’d eaten had been indulgent in more ways than one, and had been caught out by whoever this new person was. His extortion attempt didn’t work, but at least it gave her some new information to work with about who exactly her new disguise was before he’d been digested. Even still, she’d have to make up for some lost time.
It was some consolation that she’d found the bodyguard, Flogs. He had been the source of quite a bit of commotion; some of those present had seemed to think he might be collaborating with the Constables, while others suspected him of being the person who started all the chaos in the first place. He’d managed to rally most of them around him, though, which wasn’t a promising development. Bleeder knew she’d have to go through him to get to Winsting, and if people were inclined to protect him, that wouldn’t be an easy task.
As the chaos continued to escalate around her, Bleeder sat back and began to plan her approach for that night. She was targeting a Sooner, and it wouldn’t be an easy fight.
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She had decided to attack the Sooner from range, but that was a mistake. She sent off her projectile with a burst of allomantic steel, but a brief flurry of movement around Flogs made it impossible to see if she’d hit her target. Perhaps he’d simply tanked the hit, or perhaps he’d been shielded by one of the people around him; whatever the case, he clearly wasn’t dead. She resolved to try again next cycle - Flogs would die by her hand, it was only a matter of when.
The quality declined a bit as I got more and more busy with the actual game
Still, figure it's worth posting
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Excellent. Here's an updated votecount:
Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist
Silber (5): bugsy, detess, experience, xinohep, kynedath
DeTess (1): emi
Again, I'd stress the elims still have vote manip, which means this is a dangerous position to be in. Even if Silber isn't an elim, they'll manipulate the vote to save him tonight just to frame him - if we can get two more votes on him, or get one person to switch off of me and onto him, we set it up so their vote manip still maintains the tie.
@Megasif, you said earlier you thought you might owe me a tie. Now's your time to shine
Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:So Silber could be an impersonator, but if so Pyro spent a lot of effort trying to convince me that was not the case back before there was reason to believe Silber was an impersonator. If Pyro and Silber were teammates, I'd assume Pyro would want to live C5 and attempt to do so be having a vote be moved from Pyro to Xino. This didn't happen because Pyro made sure Silber's action was redirected to you, who was already voting for Xino. This ultimately wouldn't have mattered, but had the votes stayed the same as they were when I got Pyro's PM, impersonating a vote to Xino would have saved Pyro. Is there a reason for Silber being an elim other than being an impersonator?
DeTess and TJ had some analysis that implicated him. I'm not sure what was happening with Pyro there, but given his penchant for misleading people during this game, I'm going to stop trying to analyze his behavior behind-the-scenes based on my woefully incomplete information.
Since I'm not sure how much longer I'll have to post it, here's some RP from the Bleeder doc. This snip is from Cycle 1, I'll post some from other cycles later
QuoteAfter centuries of snacking on aristocrats, Bleeder found she’d grown to hate the taste.
It wasn’t the actual flavor, so much as it was the significance. It reminded her most of her origins, of the days when she served the Lord Ruler.
She had been a member of the third generation, Blessed nearly a thousand years before the downfall of the Final Empire, and she served the Lord Ruler in a personal capacity. Her skills had been used to infiltrate and destroy entire kingdoms, driving their downfall and his own ascension. The taste of a proud aristocrat, a man who simply knew the rules didn’t apply to him, was one she had become well acquainted with.
This man in particular was indulgent, as most men of his stature were, and Bleeder could tell his health was already in dire straits before he’d been killed and eaten. It was a shame, in a way - if she’d have known, she’d have taken another instead and left him to his death in ignominy. Even still, she couldn’t bring herself to be sorry she’d chosen him; he was a man who’d made his riches as a gambling tycoon, preying on his customers and rigging games in such a way that they’d never win. The gamblers themselves weren’t much better, of course, but they were merely careless and desperate - the man she’d eaten, on the other hand, was predatory.
No, she couldn’t bring herself to feel anything but pride that he’d been removed from the world. With luck, the same could be said of many others before the night was over. It was a pity she’d had to drop her original body - the appearance of a naive young maiden was one that could have deflected a lot of suspicion, if she hadn’t just been seen shooting multiple people - but it was no major tragedy. The auctiongoers had someone else to look for now, and she’d managed to snag a body from someone who wouldn’t be missed. Frankly, her plan couldn’t be going better.
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Vote Count:
Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist
Silber (3): bugsy, detess, experience
DeTess (1): emi
@Sart @Megasif @Matrim's_Dice @Mist, if you want this cycle to actually be productive for the village, please move your vote to Silber. He's one of two possibilities for the elim's remaining vote manipulation, and if we can remove that ability from their arsenal, we can ensure that future village lynch efforts are way more successful. If we kill him and he's an elim, perfect. If not, we know for a fact that Zillah is, per TJ's analysis and confirmed by DeTess.
@Emi, DeTess is about as cleared as you can get. Please consider switching your vote to Silber, that's something that would be super helpful to the village.
@xinoehp512, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Kynedath, you all are presumptive villagers. You have a chance to benefit the village here. Silber - a likely elim - started the lynch train on me, it was continued under false pretenses, and then it was shored up when people started switching off. That's all super sketchy, and I'm sure some of your biggest elim suspects are a part of it. They're trying to save Silber. Please vote before the cycle ends, and at least give the village a tie.
The elims have vote manipulation left. So does Sart. I think the breakdown most likely to give us a tie is when Silber has 2 more votes than me, and that means we need a swing of 4. If anyone voting for me right now swaps trains, they'd account for half of what we need. Please do this before the cycle end - it literally costs the village nothing, and could be super advantageous.
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1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:
Is Winsting an asset? I thought it was just a random role given to a villager with no special benefits.
Pretty sure Winsting can use any non-faction ability
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30 minutes ago, Megasif said:
Bugsy, I may have a change of heart. I feel like I owe you a tie at least.
However, I reread the rules and we can't win together. If we disperse party, then even with one elim alive, elims win. We can't risk it because we are not told if all elims are gone. Plus we may not have enough awake players. If winsting dies, you win as game's over. You're right that you can't do anything, but elims can still kill winsting (by accident).
Hmm
I’m not aiming to win. I fully expect and am resigned to being killed at some point this game. I just want vengeance on the elims before then
And the elims know who Winsting is, so it’s doubtful they’d kill him accidentally. I think the bigger village concern is that if I die, they can kill Winsting freely, and take out a big village asset in doing so
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1 hour ago, Megasif said:
I just reread OP and realised that upon a tie, both parties are lynched, rather than being random.
My mistake
So are you willing to help us get a tie by voting on Silber?
19 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:partly because I don't see the Silber lynch
Well, we know that either Silber or Zillah are elims, so even if it isn’t Silber the lynch benefits the village.
20 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:having Bleeder as a sort of weapon for them to use is a huge advantage, and in the event of a tie might go as far as to save Bugsy to get that extra kill every cycle.
They don’t get that extra kill if a village escort targets me on even-numbered cycles (since that’s when they’ve been redirecting me, and a roleblock would prevent that)
2 minutes ago, Mist said:I looked at Silberfaben. He hasn't been very alignment indicative. Aside from that, no reason for suspicion that I noticed.
Well, we know that either Silb or Zillah are the elims’ vote manip. So it’s kinda urgent that we figure out which and take them out.
4 minutes ago, Mist said:Bugsy, however, has claimed Bleeder. While Bleeder is alive, we can lose in one cycle.
For like the 5th time this cycle, no you can’t
I haven’t been able to take an action in the past 3 cycles because I’ve been redirected and roleblocked every night. That’s not going to stop now that I’ve publicly claimed Bleeder. There’s no way I can kill Winsting, because there’s no way I can kill anyone
7 minutes ago, Mist said:I'm more concerned about Bleeder than Silber.
It’s not an either-or. The idea is to cause a tie, which makes both me and Silber die. That way, you get the best of both worlds
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2 hours ago, Megasif said:
Bugsy has also admitted (as a half- threat (or maybe a full-on threat), I believe) they will continue placing kills which will either be redirected to villagers or he will be roleblocked
...where have you seen me say this? I’ve explicitly said that even if I don’t submit a kill, the elims can force me to use a kill action anyways.
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25 minutes ago, Megasif said:
Role is secret
Suspicious in the sense the sense that I'm a 'villager calling out for one bleeder lynch' or an 'elim calling for a bleeder lynch' as I don't seem to be the bleeder
‘Suspicious’ in the sense that there’s no reason a villager would oppose a chance to get an extra elim. I don’t understand your reasoning, and frankly there doesn’t seem to be any
You just don’t want to lynch an elim
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9 minutes ago, Megasif said:
I know Detess wants a tie but it's an unnecessary risk for village in the case we are tying a a village for the lynch.
There’s only two ways people die at this point - they’re killed by the elims, or they’re lynched by the village. One of those is guaranteed to hurt the village, the other has a chance of helping.
Lynching is a risk, for sure. But it’s NOT an ‘unnecessary’ risk, because if we don’t do it we’ll never hit an elim. If we have the option to increase the number of village kills without giving any extra kills to the elims, I see no reason we shouldn’t take it.
6 minutes ago, Mist said:However, Bugsy already has some knowledge of who Winsting is not, mainly from Pyro. If we wait to lynch him, we risk him finding Winsting and ending the game.
Doesn’t matter if I find Winsting, because I can’t kill him. All but 2 of my actions this game have been redirected or roleblocked, and it’s virtually certain that’ll happen again for every cycle left this game.
8 minutes ago, Mist said:I agree that we need to find an active elim.
I think we need to create a tied lynch, with the suspected elim ahead by a vote or two, in case the elims have vote manipulation. BrightnessRadiant.
BR isn’t active
It looks like the current candidate for a tie is Silb, if you’re willing to join that vote train
20 minutes ago, Megasif said:Honestly if I were bleeder and I didn't want to be a tool for the elims, I wouldn't submit an action to be redirected.
Not how it works. Extortionists can force me to use my kill action, even if I don’t send in an order to use it myself.
@Megasif, you’re really striking me as suspicious right now. What’s your role?
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Ok. Substantive double post again.
To start, here’s the current vote count, best I can figure:
Silb (1) : Bugsy
Bugsy (4) : Silb, Sart, Matrim, Emi
BR (1) : Experience
Coda (1) : DeTess
@Emi, now that you know I’m not an eliminator, would you consider moving your vote? I am Bleeder, but I’m no threat to the village, because I’m being roleblocked or redirected every cycle. It’s much more important that we lynch eliminators right now.
@Matrim, could you explain why you’re voting on me instead of hunting for an elim? Also, you haven’t claimed your role before - would you mind doing so now?
@Sart, I’m guessing I won’t persuade you to try and lynch someone else, but can you try and lynch someone else too? In order to tie the lynch between me and an elim, the elim needs 3 more votes than me. That way their impersonator can’t swing the lynch. You moving your vote to Silb or BR would go a long way towards accomplishing that.
@Experience @DeTess, I really think Silb is the best vote right now, but we need to agree on a candidate we can all vote for. I don’t think Coda is likely to be an elim, so I’d ask that we either go with BR or Silb, though I’d be open to other ideas.
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6 hours ago, DeTess said:
I'm going to move my vote to Coda for now, as between coda, emi and megasif coda's the only one I have an active suspicion off, rather than simply going through a process of elimination.
None of the elims have had 2 roles so far - I think Joe is treating “constable” as being a role. That means that if Coda’s honest about being a gossip, I don’t believe he has any chance of being an elim, and I don’t see any reason for him to lie.
I think we’d instead be best served by voting for either Silb or Emi, who both strike me as potential elims and who don’t have an existing role claim as an alibi
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Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:
Your vote on Kyne doesn't make any sense. Isn't Kyne a Renowned...?
...oops. In my defense, all my notes are on a computer I don’t currently have access to
Kynedath, BR
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Hmm. Actually, I'm guessing there were no duplicate roles assigned to the elim team. We know they have each of the following:
Smuggler (Shard of Reading)
* Impersonator (Zillah or Silb)
* Extortionist (Unknown)
* Escort (Unknown)
Renowned (Straw)
Gossip (Fura)
Stalker (Pyro)
I'm guessing that the only role they didn't get was Bartender, because giving them another kill would be unbalanced.
That means they presumptively still have a Bodyguard and a Gambling Tycoon. That means, much as it pains me, Sart appears to be clear (assuming Kynedath was telling the truth about the scan result).
Kynedath's intervention into the Sart lynch still strikes me as suspect, though, and I think some of @DeTess' analysis earlier backs that up. It could be that they expected Sart would be killed, and wanted credit for defending a villager. I also haven't entirely ruled out a Kynedath / Sart elim team where Sart isn't actually a smuggler, and Kynedath lied to cover them. Whatever the case, that's where my vote will be for now.
(Sorry for the double post, but it felt substantive enough to warrant it)
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1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:
Saying there are 5 elims left would mean a 9 elim team which is almost 1/3 of the players, which seems large to me. We've already said that 8 was the most likely number.
They have to get up to 2/3 majority, and the village has a lot of people with strong roles. I wouldn't be surprised to see 9 elims.
1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:Anyway, voting you out now doesn't necessarily mean we'll vote you out next cycle.
I'm not sure why you think that's the case. Voting me out once and then not again would be foolish - it accomplishes nothing but wasting a lynch and giving the elims a free kill. There's no advantage to doing it whatsoever. Either commit to voting me out twice, or don't vote me out at all
1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:If you truly don't care if you win then you could kill elims the two cycles, making the margins 8-0-3 instead of 8-0-5 in the worst-case scenario of there being 5 elims left. The margins would be way different, sitting at 9-0-2 assuming there are 4 left.
Except I can't, that's kinda the whole point. I don't get to choose where my kill goes, because the elims are controlling my actions.
1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:Even if you don't attack any elims these next two cycles, if there are 4 elims left, the more likely option in my opinion, the current margins would be 12-1-4. A lynch today on you, it would drop to 11-1-4, and then another plus redirect to 9-0-4. Still more then enough odds to win. So I disagree. Voting on you won't cause a village loss unless the absolute worst-case scenario comes to pass.
I disagree here. A breakdown of 9 to 4, when we know the elims have vote manipulation? Plus, all that information Pyro gathered to catch me is information they still have. The moment I'm dead, they target Winsting, then pick off our most useful roles until there's nothing left we can do.
Killing me is a losing strategy, and it gains you nothing. I won't have a single action where I'm not redirected or roleblocked for the remainder of the game. I'm not going to kill Winsting because I can't kill anyone that I choose to target, so I'm no threat to the village. Voting on me is a waste, at least before you think the elims are all gone.
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Alright, I’ve done this math once before, guys. It doesn’t work out the way Sart is pretending it does.
There are 17 people remaining. I am one of them. Presumably around 5 of them are eliminators. That means it currently stands at about 11 - 1 - 5.
This cycle, I will be lynched and survive. A villager will be killed. That puts us at 10 - 1 - 5.
The cycle after, I will be lynched again. A villager will be killed by the elims, and another will be killed when they redirect me. That puts us at 8 - 0 - 5.
The best case scenario for the village right now requires them to hunt down every last elim with only a margin of 3 villagers. If that happens, the elims have won. A single mislynch gives them a margin of 6 - 5, and it would take a unanimous village to get any one of them lynched at that point. That’s also assuming perfect activity by the village, but that’s almost certainly not the case, and villagers tend to go inactive more than elims.
There is no winning play for the village that involves killing me. All that does is burn 2 cycles, kill discussion, and open the door for the elims to finally take out Winsting, the village’s most versatile asset.
Outing myself here wasn’t a sound idea strategically, I’ll be the first to admit. But I’m doing it because I’m pissed, and because being used makes the game not fun.
I don’t care if I win, I want the eliminators to lose. But Sart seems dead set on ensuring that doesn’t happen. I’ve been suspicious of him on and off for awhile now.
I’m guessing now that the remaining elim team includes Sart, Kynedath, and BR.
As for my village reads, DeTess and Xino are my two strongest.
If you’re voting on me, you’re going to cause a village loss. But hey, hopefully analysis of it will give us some info on who might want that
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1 minute ago, DeTess said:
... okay, so new plan, we need to tie up bugsy and whoever we consider likely to be an elim. If Silber and/or zillah return to activity we will have to make sure the elim is two votes ahead to force the elims to tier things up neatly.
Also, really, elims? You have pyro talk a big game about finding and killing bleeder together, and then when you have her dead to rights you pull that stunt instead? I'm really, really not sorry about taking out Pyro when I did now.
It's worth noting that the elims redirected me last cycle, so they can only hope to roleblock me tonight. If I point my attack at someone like BR who's almost certainly an elim, and if we can keep their escort from targeting me (with an escort or extortionist of our own), we can get an extra village kill tonight.
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Alright. Time to clear the air and give you all the information I know you've been waiting for.
I'm Bleeder / Gambling Tycoon. My actions so far have been as follows:
C1: Scan Rae, redirected onto myself
C2: Kill Karnage, he survived
C3: Kill Karnage, he died
C4: Attempt to scan DeTess. Redirected to attack myself.
C5: Roleblocked by an escort
C6: Redirected to attack TJ
The interference in cycles 4 through 6 are almost certainly all the work of the elims.
I'll admit I wondered why the extortionist who targeted me on C4 didn't say anything. It's pretty obvious now, though. See, the elims intend to use me as a weapon for the remainder of the game. They're going to alternate between extorting and roleblocking me, cycle after cycle, until the game is over. I don't intend to let them, and I'd hazard a guess that most of you don't either.
I'm sorry to say, village, but killing me is not an option right now. I can only die to the lynch, and even then only if I'm lynched twice. There's no way that happens before the game ends, one way or another. It's about time to ditch the whole dilemma about whether to hunt Bleeder or the elims - there's only one right option for anyone who wants to win. Only 6 votes are needed to disperse the party, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn the elims have nearly that many members still living. I rather doubt all of them are awake and able to vote for dispersal, which is why I haven't given up this game as a lost cause yet. Even still, we're within a cycle or two of game over. We need to hunt elims, and we need to do it fast.
Elims, a word to the wise: I don't take kindly to being used as a tool. Unifying two factions against you is a good way to lose - just look what happened to me after I killed Flogs on C3. I hope you're confident in your odds right now, because that one kill you got out of me just now? I'm not sure it was worth it for you
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There's going to be hell to pay. You know who you are.
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3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:
This was a good analysis but I made it without knowing about Elkanah Smuggling vote off Araris. So basically my final conclusion was wrong. Do read DeTess' response to that. She was made corrections to that which are accurate.
Ah, whoops. Missed that post somehow.
Still think BR is probably an Elim, but you're right, Experience - probably not worth our lynch this cycle.
Hmm. Shard of Reading, I don't quite understand your vote on Sart now that he's cleared from being Bleeder. I know you say you want to focus on killing elims, but I've yet to see convincing evidence that he is an elim - while I could see him and Kynedath on a team, I don't think it's particularly likely. Care to explain more?
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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting
in Sanderson Elimination
Posted
Then Emi, you removing your vote would be helpful to the village. Is that something you’re willing to do?