Bugsy

Then Emi, you removing your vote would be helpful to the village. Is that something you’re willing to do?

Sorry for the double post, but I want these tags to actually work as expected. @Coda and @Mist, you voting on Mega makes the tie, it doesn’t break it. Please, if you’re online, vote now.

Uhhhh, guys, do keep in mind that Matrim has said they’ll be manipulating the vote against me I’d appreciate if our tie attempts take that into account and have one more vote on Mega than he has right now

BR's also been the suspect most conveniently pushed by a lot of people who then backed off the Silber lynch, to be fair. I think it's entirely plausible that they're an inactive villager that the elims want us to kill so we waste a lynch

Yeahhh, no. There’s no chance the elims let the village lynch Winsting. That’s a loss for them. Let’s imagine what happens if Winsting is leading in the lynch. Is there any chance that one of the elims doesn’t unmask to warm us off? Having Winsting up for the lynch is a best-case scenario for the village, because it means the elims have to sacrifice a teammate just to continue the game.

They're saying that if someone extorted Zillah to target person x, person x's vote would have disappeared. The fact that it didn't means an extortionist didn't force Zillah to target someone who actually cast a vote

Before manipulation: Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist Silber (6): bugsy, detess, experience, xinohep, kynedath, devotary DeTess (1): emi After manipulation: Bugsy (5): Matrim, Megasif, Mist, Sart, Silber Silber (5): Bugsy, DeTess, Devotary, Experience, Kynedath, Xinohep DeTess (1): Emi The only difference here is that one of the votes on Silber was removed. Either it was smuggled off, or an extortionist targeted an inactive impersonator, I'm not sure which. @Sart, did you smuggle a vote off? I'm still leaning village on you, because I doubt the elims have repeat roles, and if you tell us you're the smuggler you'll have saved us from a bit of a wild goose chase. Based on TJ's analysis, either Silber or Zillah had to have been the elim impersonator. Given the absence of an impersonation last night, and given Zillah's inactivity that same cycle, I'd say they're almost certainly an elim. Because tonight is an even cycle, let's have a village bartender kill them if one's available - no use wasting a lynch on someone who's already basically dead to rights, especially when it would destroy a cycle's worth of discussion. As for who else is suspicious, I'd go with Megasif. He's been cagey for awhile, and acted as if he was considering the Silb lynch without ever showing signs of following through. At first, he based his opposition on a series of clear misunderstandings - first about what happens when there's a tie, second about me supposedly 'threatening' the village, etc. Those misunderstandings all strike me as a little too convenient for his purposes, as he forced DeTess and I to spend most of the cycle answering his specious arguments instead of actually doing further analysis. Even once those arguments were addressed, he maintained the same course of action, now absent any justification, and disappeared for the remainder of the cycle. He's very suspicious to me, and I think he should be our lynch target today. Oh, and tonight's the night the elims can extort me and redirect my kill, but I doubt that's what they'll do. More likely, they'll extort Winsting into making a kill, since they know his identity and it sets them up to have another escort every even cycle for awhile. That means we either need the elims to roleblock both me and Winsting, or we need to redirect / roleblock the elim extortionist. Edit: Oh, right, some more RP. Here's cycles 2 and 3 The quality declined a bit as I got more and more busy with the actual game Still, figure it's worth posting

Excellent. Here's an updated votecount: Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist Silber (5): bugsy, detess, experience, xinohep, kynedath DeTess (1): emi Again, I'd stress the elims still have vote manip, which means this is a dangerous position to be in. Even if Silber isn't an elim, they'll manipulate the vote to save him tonight just to frame him - if we can get two more votes on him, or get one person to switch off of me and onto him, we set it up so their vote manip still maintains the tie. @Megasif, you said earlier you thought you might owe me a tie. Now's your time to shine DeTess and TJ had some analysis that implicated him. I'm not sure what was happening with Pyro there, but given his penchant for misleading people during this game, I'm going to stop trying to analyze his behavior behind-the-scenes based on my woefully incomplete information. Since I'm not sure how much longer I'll have to post it, here's some RP from the Bleeder doc. This snip is from Cycle 1, I'll post some from other cycles later

Vote Count: Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist Silber (3): bugsy, detess, experience DeTess (1): emi @Sart @Megasif @Matrim's_Dice @Mist, if you want this cycle to actually be productive for the village, please move your vote to Silber. He's one of two possibilities for the elim's remaining vote manipulation, and if we can remove that ability from their arsenal, we can ensure that future village lynch efforts are way more successful. If we kill him and he's an elim, perfect. If not, we know for a fact that Zillah is, per TJ's analysis and confirmed by DeTess. @Emi, DeTess is about as cleared as you can get. Please consider switching your vote to Silber, that's something that would be super helpful to the village. @xinoehp512, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Kynedath, you all are presumptive villagers. You have a chance to benefit the village here. Silber - a likely elim - started the lynch train on me, it was continued under false pretenses, and then it was shored up when people started switching off. That's all super sketchy, and I'm sure some of your biggest elim suspects are a part of it. They're trying to save Silber. Please vote before the cycle ends, and at least give the village a tie. The elims have vote manipulation left. So does Sart. I think the breakdown most likely to give us a tie is when Silber has 2 more votes than me, and that means we need a swing of 4. If anyone voting for me right now swaps trains, they'd account for half of what we need. Please do this before the cycle end - it literally costs the village nothing, and could be super advantageous.

Pretty sure Winsting can use any non-faction ability

I’m not aiming to win. I fully expect and am resigned to being killed at some point this game. I just want vengeance on the elims before then And the elims know who Winsting is, so it’s doubtful they’d kill him accidentally. I think the bigger village concern is that if I die, they can kill Winsting freely, and take out a big village asset in doing so

So are you willing to help us get a tie by voting on Silber? Well, we know that either Silber or Zillah are elims, so even if it isn’t Silber the lynch benefits the village. They don’t get that extra kill if a village escort targets me on even-numbered cycles (since that’s when they’ve been redirecting me, and a roleblock would prevent that) Well, we know that either Silb or Zillah are the elims’ vote manip. So it’s kinda urgent that we figure out which and take them out. For like the 5th time this cycle, no you can’t I haven’t been able to take an action in the past 3 cycles because I’ve been redirected and roleblocked every night. That’s not going to stop now that I’ve publicly claimed Bleeder. There’s no way I can kill Winsting, because there’s no way I can kill anyone It’s not an either-or. The idea is to cause a tie, which makes both me and Silber die. That way, you get the best of both worlds

...where have you seen me say this? I’ve explicitly said that even if I don’t submit a kill, the elims can force me to use a kill action anyways.

‘Suspicious’ in the sense that there’s no reason a villager would oppose a chance to get an extra elim. I don’t understand your reasoning, and frankly there doesn’t seem to be any You just don’t want to lynch an elim

There’s only two ways people die at this point - they’re killed by the elims, or they’re lynched by the village. One of those is guaranteed to hurt the village, the other has a chance of helping. Lynching is a risk, for sure. But it’s NOT an ‘unnecessary’ risk, because if we don’t do it we’ll never hit an elim. If we have the option to increase the number of village kills without giving any extra kills to the elims, I see no reason we shouldn’t take it. Doesn’t matter if I find Winsting, because I can’t kill him. All but 2 of my actions this game have been redirected or roleblocked, and it’s virtually certain that’ll happen again for every cycle left this game. BR isn’t active It looks like the current candidate for a tie is Silb, if you’re willing to join that vote train Not how it works. Extortionists can force me to use my kill action, even if I don’t send in an order to use it myself. @Megasif, you’re really striking me as suspicious right now. What’s your role?

Ok. Substantive double post again. To start, here’s the current vote count, best I can figure: Silb (1) : Bugsy Bugsy (4) : Silb, Sart, Matrim, Emi BR (1) : Experience Coda (1) : DeTess @Emi, now that you know I’m not an eliminator, would you consider moving your vote? I am Bleeder, but I’m no threat to the village, because I’m being roleblocked or redirected every cycle. It’s much more important that we lynch eliminators right now. @Matrim, could you explain why you’re voting on me instead of hunting for an elim? Also, you haven’t claimed your role before - would you mind doing so now? @Sart, I’m guessing I won’t persuade you to try and lynch someone else, but can you try and lynch someone else too? In order to tie the lynch between me and an elim, the elim needs 3 more votes than me. That way their impersonator can’t swing the lynch. You moving your vote to Silb or BR would go a long way towards accomplishing that. @Experience @DeTess, I really think Silb is the best vote right now, but we need to agree on a candidate we can all vote for. I don’t think Coda is likely to be an elim, so I’d ask that we either go with BR or Silb, though I’d be open to other ideas.

None of the elims have had 2 roles so far - I think Joe is treating “constable” as being a role. That means that if Coda’s honest about being a gossip, I don’t believe he has any chance of being an elim, and I don’t see any reason for him to lie. I think we’d instead be best served by voting for either Silb or Emi, who both strike me as potential elims and who don’t have an existing role claim as an alibi

...oops. In my defense, all my notes are on a computer I don’t currently have access to Kynedath, BR

Hmm. Actually, I'm guessing there were no duplicate roles assigned to the elim team. We know they have each of the following: Smuggler (Shard of Reading) * Impersonator (Zillah or Silb) * Extortionist (Unknown) * Escort (Unknown) Renowned (Straw) Gossip (Fura) Stalker (Pyro) I'm guessing that the only role they didn't get was Bartender, because giving them another kill would be unbalanced. That means they presumptively still have a Bodyguard and a Gambling Tycoon. That means, much as it pains me, Sart appears to be clear (assuming Kynedath was telling the truth about the scan result). Kynedath's intervention into the Sart lynch still strikes me as suspect, though, and I think some of @DeTess' analysis earlier backs that up. It could be that they expected Sart would be killed, and wanted credit for defending a villager. I also haven't entirely ruled out a Kynedath / Sart elim team where Sart isn't actually a smuggler, and Kynedath lied to cover them. Whatever the case, that's where my vote will be for now. (Sorry for the double post, but it felt substantive enough to warrant it)

They have to get up to 2/3 majority, and the village has a lot of people with strong roles. I wouldn't be surprised to see 9 elims. I'm not sure why you think that's the case. Voting me out once and then not again would be foolish - it accomplishes nothing but wasting a lynch and giving the elims a free kill. There's no advantage to doing it whatsoever. Either commit to voting me out twice, or don't vote me out at all Except I can't, that's kinda the whole point. I don't get to choose where my kill goes, because the elims are controlling my actions. I disagree here. A breakdown of 9 to 4, when we know the elims have vote manipulation? Plus, all that information Pyro gathered to catch me is information they still have. The moment I'm dead, they target Winsting, then pick off our most useful roles until there's nothing left we can do. Killing me is a losing strategy, and it gains you nothing. I won't have a single action where I'm not redirected or roleblocked for the remainder of the game. I'm not going to kill Winsting because I can't kill anyone that I choose to target, so I'm no threat to the village. Voting on me is a waste, at least before you think the elims are all gone.

Alright, I’ve done this math once before, guys. It doesn’t work out the way Sart is pretending it does. There are 17 people remaining. I am one of them. Presumably around 5 of them are eliminators. That means it currently stands at about 11 - 1 - 5. This cycle, I will be lynched and survive. A villager will be killed. That puts us at 10 - 1 - 5. The cycle after, I will be lynched again. A villager will be killed by the elims, and another will be killed when they redirect me. That puts us at 8 - 0 - 5. The best case scenario for the village right now requires them to hunt down every last elim with only a margin of 3 villagers. If that happens, the elims have won. A single mislynch gives them a margin of 6 - 5, and it would take a unanimous village to get any one of them lynched at that point. That’s also assuming perfect activity by the village, but that’s almost certainly not the case, and villagers tend to go inactive more than elims. There is no winning play for the village that involves killing me. All that does is burn 2 cycles, kill discussion, and open the door for the elims to finally take out Winsting, the village’s most versatile asset. Outing myself here wasn’t a sound idea strategically, I’ll be the first to admit. But I’m doing it because I’m pissed, and because being used makes the game not fun. I don’t care if I win, I want the eliminators to lose. But Sart seems dead set on ensuring that doesn’t happen. I’ve been suspicious of him on and off for awhile now. I’m guessing now that the remaining elim team includes Sart, Kynedath, and BR. As for my village reads, DeTess and Xino are my two strongest. If you’re voting on me, you’re going to cause a village loss. But hey, hopefully analysis of it will give us some info on who might want that

It's worth noting that the elims redirected me last cycle, so they can only hope to roleblock me tonight. If I point my attack at someone like BR who's almost certainly an elim, and if we can keep their escort from targeting me (with an escort or extortionist of our own), we can get an extra village kill tonight.

Alright. Time to clear the air and give you all the information I know you've been waiting for. I'm Bleeder / Gambling Tycoon. My actions so far have been as follows: C1: Scan Rae, redirected onto myself C2: Kill Karnage, he survived C3: Kill Karnage, he died C4: Attempt to scan DeTess. Redirected to attack myself. C5: Roleblocked by an escort C6: Redirected to attack TJ The interference in cycles 4 through 6 are almost certainly all the work of the elims. I'll admit I wondered why the extortionist who targeted me on C4 didn't say anything. It's pretty obvious now, though. See, the elims intend to use me as a weapon for the remainder of the game. They're going to alternate between extorting and roleblocking me, cycle after cycle, until the game is over. I don't intend to let them, and I'd hazard a guess that most of you don't either. I'm sorry to say, village, but killing me is not an option right now. I can only die to the lynch, and even then only if I'm lynched twice. There's no way that happens before the game ends, one way or another. It's about time to ditch the whole dilemma about whether to hunt Bleeder or the elims - there's only one right option for anyone who wants to win. Only 6 votes are needed to disperse the party, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn the elims have nearly that many members still living. I rather doubt all of them are awake and able to vote for dispersal, which is why I haven't given up this game as a lost cause yet. Even still, we're within a cycle or two of game over. We need to hunt elims, and we need to do it fast. Elims, a word to the wise: I don't take kindly to being used as a tool. Unifying two factions against you is a good way to lose - just look what happened to me after I killed Flogs on C3. I hope you're confident in your odds right now, because that one kill you got out of me just now? I'm not sure it was worth it for you

There's going to be hell to pay. You know who you are.

Ah, whoops. Missed that post somehow. Still think BR is probably an Elim, but you're right, Experience - probably not worth our lynch this cycle. Hmm. Shard of Reading, I don't quite understand your vote on Sart now that he's cleared from being Bleeder. I know you say you want to focus on killing elims, but I've yet to see convincing evidence that he is an elim - while I could see him and Kynedath on a team, I don't think it's particularly likely. Care to explain more?