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Everything posted by Bugsy

  1. What the absolute storms happened here. Right, well, I’m going to look through posts again to see who tried to shape the lynches on constables away from Gaea. That said, one such person was obviously Alv. (Of course, it’s wholly possible the Elims saved him to frame him, but knowing what we now do about Gaea I concur with El’s analysis from last cycle - I’m willing to make this lynch)
  2. Are we sure about that? Joe is... rather known for his love of secrets, and Lum flipped as Kleptomaniac.
  3. Hello, all! I promised a readthrough of the thread last night, and I'm following through now. It's long, though, so be warned. I'm spoilering it to prevent thread bloat. TL;DR: Somewhat suspicious of Gaea, Rae, and Fura, conflicted about Striker, village lean on Alv, Drake, and Fifth. And lastly, a note about Snip and the dagger: there's every possibility that the Elims just gave it to him in the hopes of stealing it back next turn - using it on Burnt would tell them precisely where it was, so they could potentially use it again (after sowing suspicion of Snip and Ark as well)
  4. Hello, everyone! I just wanted to pop in the thread right now to say that I completely forgot the game was going on until late last night, and today has been quite busy for personal reasons. I’ll be doing a close readthrough of the thread tomorrow, when I’m more clearheaded than I am at a time past midnight. Apologies for my inactivity to date.
  5. Hey there, and welcome to the forums! The Shard is without a doubt a great place to get involved with the community, I’d recommend just paying around the forums and finding topics you’re interested in, or maybe creating a thread or two for your pet theories. Remember to read and follow the rules, and you’ll be fine - everyone here is very friendly If you’re interested in the community side of things, I’d recommend checking out the Discord server, and also taking a look at Sanderson Elimination, which hosts frequent forum mafia games. We’re in the middle of signups for a game right now, and it’s actually a rerun of my first ever game a few years back, so now’s a perfect time to join if you have any interest! That changes as people upvote content you post - the more good content you produce, the more your rank rises. Don’t be too concerned about that - it’s really only supposed to be positive reinforcement, so don’t let it bother you Also, it’s generally recommended to not make 2 consecutive posts on the same thread - if you have more to add, you can edit your post to reflect that instead and prevent clutter. It’s not a huge deal, just something to keep in mind
  6. Senator Alendi stepped off the train with a newspaper folded underarm and an amused smile he struggled to wipe from his face. Corruption in the Elendel Senate? Frankly, it went without saying. The Senate of Elendel had never been an organization that gave much thought to the people of the city; its members were selected to represent the Noble Houses and the various Guilds, there was never a vote cast by your typical citizen. He shook his head at the thought. Compared to Doriel, his home and native land, Elendel's government was soft, weak, and unaccountable, filled with politicians who had glutted themselves on the taxes that came from being the Basin's only trade hub. Corruption was bound to occur. No, that corruption existed wasn't surprising in the least. What he hadn't expected was the nature of it, targeting the Governor to undisclosed ends. How had Binks gotten himself involved in that? Everyone knew the Senator was someone who frankly couldn't keep his mouth shut, and he wasn't half clever enough to orchestrate something like this on his own. No, whoever had arranged this knew that Binks would be caught, or at least knew it was a possibility. The Senator had been played for a fool, as had the Noble House of Gungan that he represented. Perhaps the chaos was the purpose? Alendi wouldn't have been surprised. There was no end to the plans that could be furthered by this, with all the Senators kept from their staff and turning on each other one by one. Perhaps it was one of the bloc leaders trying to get rid of competition? Or a pesky political party trying to consolidate power and legitimize itself as an institution? He'd figure it out sooner or later. When he did, he resolved to pass along his thanks. He had come to the city expecting long and painful negotiations with the Senate, prepared to fend off attack after attack targeted at Doriel's new trade infrastructure that jeopardized Elendel's natural monopoly. Now, though? All of that was out the window. Now he had leverage. Now he had power. If he could stop the collapse of Elendel, the favors he'd earn of the Noble Houses alone would be enough to block any economic sanctions. If he could play this right... the possibilities were limitless. He walked to the Senate building with his suitcase still in hand. He was packed already for his trip to the city, so he had a head start on the other Senators. Best to make the most of it - Elendel was falling, and it was time for Doriel to rise in its stead. Couldn't miss a rerun of my very first SE game. I'm back as well Sources: https://coppermind.net/wiki/Elendel_Basin#Politics and https://coppermind.net/wiki/Doriel
  7. Hello, and welcome to the Shard! I look forward to seeing what you make
  8. I'm still behind and working on catching up (sorry about that), but having skimmed the current thread I would note that Cadcom was killed by the Elims last night. Cadcom was, as I recall, someone Rand directed suspicion onto, and I'm wondering why the Elims would target him. The only thing I can think of is that assuming Rand flips Elim, Cadcom looks relatively cleared, but this doesn't make much since as there are other more thoroughly cleared individuals that they could have targeted instead. Perhaps they're afraid El would revive the more active contributors in the interests of keeping the game engaging? This seems implausible, but I'm unsure as to the alternative. The only other guess I have is that if they start targeting active contributors, their own active contributors (who obviously aren't targeted) begin to stick out. It seems that there are a lot of ways to interpret their motive in using their kill that way, but it strikes me as something that could give us a good degree of insight into their thought process
  9. Ok. Going to continue my analysis That's a rather big "if", Rand. Waiting until late game, when there's a solid chance Wesley will die before then, merely postpones the village getting information As I said before, I'm reading HH as very village. This merely helps that, knowing that Len flipped Elim Hm. Could you explain what evidence in your post made that suspicion occur? You sort of went back and forth in your analysis, and I had no way how it would conclude until I saw your vote ...I swear, I had no memory of this post from my previous read-through when I made mine Any reason you don't read him as village? I feel like you listed a few village things, and then came to a conclusion of neutral This is the case, yes. That actually brings up something interesting - CadCom didn't, as far as I saw, have a distinct train of thought from one point to another, he addressed each of Fifth's posts in isolation and then made a conclusion that didn't seem predictable based on his analysis. This could be an error in attempting to portray progression of thought, possibly. In your first game you did well enough I didn't believe you were a new player. I think you're a bit hard on yourself I'm reading this as village. Fifth had an opportunity to create chaos by boosting me and Aonar to similar levels of votes, which could have meant we wasted 2 turns lynching Aonar and then me. Instead, he expressed suspicion of Len (and thereby a degree of trust to me) and voted for Aonar to get information without killing me or letting Eliminators manipulate to do so. That feels like a village train of thought, especially knowing what we know of Len's alignment This is very true While true, some Elims have a hard time doing it genuinely. They'll be over the top or far too reserved, instead of it feeling natural. I'm not convinced it's alignment indicative for you, but it could be for others Not knowing your playstyle means you don't know what to avoid "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." - Sun Tzu Hmmmmm. This is an interesting dynamic. Given that Len was defending Eternum earlier (although possibly out of an effort to pin HH?), I could read it as distancing, but I don't think it is. It wound up resulting in Elenion's lynch, and I don't think his team would bus him this early Doubling down on Len makes me less suspicious of Eternum. He could have backed off instead of defending his stance, and he'd still have something to point to as evidence that he once expressed suspicion of Len once he flipped Elim. He did leave himself an out in terms of the next day's analysis, but I'm reading it as if Eternum and Elenion aren't w/w, and since we know Len was an Elim I have a slight village on Eternum I rather agree with this. I don't think HH or Fifth are Elims, based on previous analysis, and this provides some good reasoning to back it up. Also, I don't really have any strong opinion of Devotary, for some reason. I'm not getting a good read That can be useful. I also (obviously ) find it rather useful to do a long series of multi-quotes so I can respond on a point by point basis ...I feel like this has to have some bearing on alignment of Fifth and Eternum, but I'm not confident my analysis is up to it - this is prime WIFOM territory What information is that? Hmm. I would have considered that aspect relatively minor compared to other avenues of suspicion against Len that you took to be NAI, but this is showing progression of thought and leading you to the correct conclusion, so I don't find it suspicious. Just interesting to see the thought process I... don't know what to think of this. On one hand, you keep an out for yourself and request that others don't vote on Len, but on the other you vote on him yourself. Anyone else have more insight into this post? It feels like it relies on a lot of context, and I'm interested in seeing other interpretations So, CadCom's vote puts Len in the lead with 2, and he leaves an avenue open to make it a widespread tie at 1. This sort of goes with the previous. Anyone have any insight? Sorry about that. Hope this post helps Glad to see HH getting some defense. I had noticed that myself, and I'm pretty solidly village on him Ok, I suppose my solid village reads are now Val, Fifth, and HH To be fair, I found the kill odd as well. It seemed as if the kill, being the only vig kill of the game, would have been better used on a target of suspicion, but *shrug* Hmm. Could you cite some specific stuff Devotary has said? Like I said, I'm having trouble getting a read. With regards to Straw, I haven't seen much alignment indicative stuff myself, although in retrospect Elenion's reaction to CadCom's random vote on Straw is very amusing if Len and Straw are w/w While true, especially compared to people who don't do SE (I'm not particularly good, here, and I decimate my classmates in Werewolf, as I'm sure you'd all do as well ), there is still grounds for analysis and use of text based analysis. If you ignore it the first cycle, you start the second in the same position. You essentially have to make a down payment on analysis the first few cycles of the game, and hope it pays off. Big assumption Very few things are taken at face value here. Everything is situational Only way to get better is to practice. Besides, that'll let us get a feel for you I... very much disagree that it's likely 2 or 3. Given that Araris and I were the 2 leading candidates, the Elims didn't have much of an investment in selecting the target, and I doubt they'd all tie themselves so explicitly to a lynch they knew would flip village Meta analysis already? Nice What're your thoughts on this now? This was actually more to do with RL stuff, but the change in tone is a fair note I've known Elims to express ignorance of the rules before, and since this post claims that Devotary is making things harder for the Elims when it's actually based on a misunderstanding, I'm not going to take it as alignment indicative. Also, I find it interesting that Devotary switched to Sart instead of Len. The "original issue" was nothing more than a bad joke, so I didn't really want to focus on that In all seriousness, though, I did say I was far more suspicious of Len than Araris, and I feel that in retrospect my continuing to vote on Len was fully justifiable My post originally addressed Araris, not Len, so I'm not sure how that could have been baiting Len and accidentally getting Araris? A side note is that this makes it easier for new players who are Elims, because they can show progression of thought with regards to game mechanics We seem to have this discussion every game, but I'm glad it went faster this one than most Wasn't me Ok, there's my analysis for C2. C3 coming as soon as I can do it, but class is about to end again so I need to return the computer
  10. Hello, everyone I've finished reading cycle 2, and I really don't seem to be in a good spot for analysis right now. I'm not sure what's wrong, but I seem to read things without them registering and nothing is really clear. I did notice that votes were thrown around at a lot of different people and from a lot of different sources, so I'm hoping to diagram those out and analyze it at some point - it seems like that could either show real suspicion or be a distancing mechanism, and analysis to see which is which would be very helpful. I plan on doing this later. I haven't taken a look at anything in cycle 3 (I opened this thread and scrolled immediately to post without reading anything, because I know I'm not prepared to take a good look at anything and I don't want to be sucked in ), so if there's anything I was supposed to respond to, I apologize. I'll attempt to do so either tonight or tomorrow, although the latter looks more feasible, since I'm leaving for a friend's grad party in 10 minutes, and won't be home until after the after party, so it's unlikely I'll get a chance to look at much else until tomorrow. Sorry again for my relative lack of activity, but with any luck my contribution should pick up soon. Next week is finals week for me, but because of my schedule I don't actually have any exams - all of them are projects I've already completed or tests I've already taken, which means I'll have a lot of downtime for this.
  11. Ok, I'm in the progress of reading through the cycle now. I'll add comments as I think of things. Firstly, I have a pretty strong village read on @Hemalurgic Headshot. He confirmed for us that Roadwalker had falsely claimed Miracle Max, and since the Eliminators killed Roadwalker I would imagine none of them knew that he had been lying. After all, had they known, they could have kept him alive and let the village be unsure of his alignment. By killing him when they knew he was lying, they'd lose an information advantage and would also lose the ability to fabricate a controversy over Roadwalker's fake claim. Secondly, @Elbereth, this'll be interesting with you as Max. Good call on waiting to claim, too . (Also you have to teach me how to use Iambic Pentameter at some point. I got halfway through before realizing I was reading it at the specific cadence, and I'm deeply impressed) Thirdly, in retrospect, I'm a bit surprised by Rand's suspicion of Cadcom. Cadom's vote was... poorly thought out, true, but Rand has explicitly acknowledged that he's accustomed to looking for the sort of elim tells that would be present in the championship, and I don't think the sort of thing Cadcom did would be seen there at all. His vote was rather transparent and precipitated entirely on a misconception/faulty analysis. Any elim I can think of would know not to vote on something so... not unsubstantial, but almost anti-substantial. Not only was it more or less baseless, it explicitly gave Straw the opportunity to respond and say that his previous posts were evidence he was village, something that wouldn't happen naturally without this sort of accusation. I suppose if they're working together, it'd be possible, but I doubt that he's an elim if Straw isn't. Fourthly, @randuir is a tricky case for me. His analysis, especially during the first cycle, seemed designed to air out as much as possible. His use of Socratic questioning was actually quite helpful for me, I'll admit. At the same time, though, it seemed a rather noncommittal way to fan the flames of my argument with Len. Had he not also brought up the argument about Cadcom, I'd be much more suspicious of him, ironically enough. He did, however, introduce a new suspicion and follow it with a vote, even when Araris and I were already up for a lynch, which makes me believe he was likely not fanning the flames for the purpose of getting us lynched, but rather to get us to talk more and potentially provide the village with more clues. Slight village read. Fifthly, Mr. Doctor, your analysis is very impressive. I'll quote a section of it below to respond to: Doc, at least in my experience, seems rather furtive when he's an eliminator. He is (or was, at least) very preoccupied with maintaining an information imbalance, and it often became apparent that he knew more than he was letting on. It's been quite awhile since I've played with him, but there was a time when I had him down cold, and assuming his playstyle hasn't significantly changed, I'm reading him as village. Sixth, and I know that this isn't the order the posts actually appeared in, but I'd like to respond to @Elbereth's post that said the following: With regards to the progression of thought you reference, I disagree that it's indicative of being village. I believe you're referring to his claim of rereading and being less sure of Araris' alignment after the vote already ended, which to me is NAI. I'd say that could possibly be a distancing technique as much as it could be progression of thought. @Mr Doctor, I also disagree with your analysis of that. Eliminators have less progression of thought because they already know what's true, so they can't figure stuff out over time. It means they have to stage it if they're showing a change in opinion, so it's certainly not elim indicative. It's just not village indicative either, though, at least in my opinion. Seventh, @Fifth Scholar , to respond to this: I'd say you're pretty much correct. I don't see El falsely claiming, because the possibility of a counterclaim would make it a more risky maneuver than her usual playstyle, and because it could cause a lot of unpredictability. Her keeping a low profile C1 also helps strengthen her case. I'm inclined to believe her regarding her role as Max, although I plan on remaining cautious Eighth, @Elbereth again: I'd agree, someone yesterday described it as heated, and I was rather surprised because personally it seemed pretty civil. Reminds me of when I first joined and got really invested in arguments, though. I suppose the culture of all being friends but still trying to kill eachother takes awhile to get used to With regards to the MUN, any specific way you mean that? I'm pleasantly surprised to hear that. Class is ending, so I have to give the computer back. Will return with more analysis later.
  12. Hey, everyone. Sorry I wasn't active that day cycle, a lot of stuff came up that I wasn't expecting. I plan on catching up on the thread between tonight and tomorrow morning, and hope to post my thoughts then.
  13. While this was my initial thought, I'm not really sure now. If Len were the Man in Black, I feel as if he'd likely have killed me last night, and that he'd have claimed this morning. Since neither of those is the case, I'm thinking it's someone else.
  14. As the Dread Pirate Cummerbund laid eyes on the dead body of the Princess, he felt his hopes for a peaceful resolution die inside him. He had been here to avoid a war between Gilder and Florin, but now, with the death of the princess, that no longer would be possible. The war was inevitable; now, he merely needed be sure his home country of Gilder would win it. To do so would necessitate the destruction of Florin leadership; if any were allowed to maintain power, war would surely follow. Musing, he considered what advantage this could bring him. Cummerbund, King of Florin, he thought in his head. It has a certain ring to it. That was a really bad mislynch. It'll be hard for us to come back from this. Looking back at who defended Araris, Elenion seems to be the most obvious candidate for Dread Pirate Roberts, but as he hasn't claimed and whoever it was didn't kill me, I doubt that's the case. Other than that, I can't think of who it would be. If the ex Dread Pirate Roberts is reading this, I'd recommend you claim. Unless it's Kidpen or Roadwalker, we should be able to have a cleared village person for at least one cycle. I'm hesitant to establish a Mayor system, but with such an information disadvantage it may be a worthy trade for us to be able to set up a PM hub this night cycle, even if Roberts is killed the same night. Roadwalker had claimed Max, so there's a very good chance we lost both the vigilante, the action suppressor, and the healer all in one turn. It's deeply unfortunate that we lost Buttercup, but I think losing Max the same turn may have been for the better, specifically so the game doesn't become endlessly prolonged. Edit: Ninja'd by Len
  15. Excellent question, Doc. I wish I knew the answer I know what used to be, but as far as I can tell, that may not work the greatest anymore. I miss the days when I could read you within a cycle
  16. Honestly, I had somehow missed that post until I saw it quoted, which is why my response to it was delayed. It was definitely something I should have responded to, yes, which is why I did it as soon as I realized it was a thing To clarify, if someone makes a PM with us, may we make one of our own as well? I'd assume so, but I'd hate to accidentally break the rules.
  17. You are aware I was asked about what I thought of it, yes? I quoted the asking post in my own, so I'm not sure how you missed it if not. When people ask me questions, I'm going to be honest and thorough. That's why I mentioned it. This seems more like an accusation of convenience than a legitimately meant one. Why are you voting for me for responding to a question fully? Also, why did you neglect to consider the fact that it was a response to a question in your support for your vote?
  18. Hmm. I would be less suspicious of the person who discussed their suspicions well in advance, yes, because they knowingly put themselves at risk of suspicion if a mislynch occurred. Thing is, in the specific case of what I said, there's very little basis for my "suspicion". As I said, I was almost certain it was NAI, so I wouldn't think that puny advance justification would in any way provide actionable counterweight to the fact that I'd have called him out twice for virtually no good reason. How was that at all "without putting [myself] in a position to take flak"? Also, as I said, what motive would I as an elim have to cast suspicion C1 when I could just hang back and wait for the village to mislynch without my help? I'm not saying I'd avoid voting, but I'd definitely not call out something like that and draw attention to myself. Also, you say Elim!Len is the type to go out looking for mislynches, and given that I know I'm a villager, that's really not making you less suspicious in my eyes. You saw someone else address a suspicion against me, and saw a vote that was already on me, then you piled on, tying me for the lead. That seems to fit your claimed Elim M.O.; you look for a mislynch and act aggressively, using preexisting justification (in this case one not created by you) to back your vote.
  19. He could also have given the explanation in the post giving the vote, no? I see why providing an explanation helps, but fail to see why doing so well in advance does, I suppose. Like I said, I think the fact that the elim would essentially be voting twice for the same person, drawing more attention, outweighs any benefit you might get.
  20. ....okay? I'm not sure what you're going for. ...in the post you quote I literally said "Wouldn't it make much more sense to vote back on him because he had voted on me and simply wait to retract until he did so as well?" I don't know where you're getting your thoughts that I said the Elims have no incentive to vote. I said they have no incentive to direct the vote. I elaborated on that here: What I did with Araris goes directly against this. Had I done that, I would have been both the originator of the suspicion and the first voter, in 2 separate posts. There's no way that would be beneficial, at all. Targets of opportunity become targets of opportunity because they have an appearance of consensus behind them. What you propose would just make me appear to be tunneling. I'd disagree that the "set up" was in any way opportunistic. What actual advantage did it convey? It's not as if it set me up to vote later; I could have voted later anyways, and this just would have drawn twice the attention to it - once in my original post, and again in my post with the actual vote. Also, I'd note that my entire point is that Elims don't want to provide the "opportunistic set-up". They wait for someone else to provide the basis for a vote and follow up on someone else's suspicion, divorcing themselves from the responsibility and creating a false sense of consensus. I did exact opposite. I fully admitted it wasn't a good reason, hence why I didn't vote. If I hadn't included the comment and then "literally nothing else" happened this cycle, as I said in the original post, then there would be nothing stopping me from following through without the advance warning. If something did happen, then I wouldn't have voted on him at all and would have avoided the extra attention. There is no feasible reason for me to do this as an eliminator. As an eliminator, it can only be a burden. As a villager, however, that let me demonstrate my attentions to the village, which doesn't help me individually but would arguably help us as a whole. The village begins with an information disadvantage. Sharing our thought processes can only help, where with eliminators it's a far more risky proposition. That is why I included the statement, not because it provided me any semblance of advantage.
  21. I stated that Elims have little to no incentive in selecting the target of the vote themselves, as is done by anyone introducing a new suspicion on another player, but as suspicion had already been cast on me they could more easily add on without appearing to be the originators of the idea. It's sort of the concept of diffusion of responsibility; I don't believe Elims avoid voting - in fact, as I said, I feel the ideal elim response to Araris' poke vote would have been to return a vote and then mutually back off - but I do believe that they will avoid being the first to identify someone as suspicious, at least this early in the game. I believe Elenion's vote has attracted attention primarily because it was a bit hypocritical; under normal circumstances, an Elim following up a village suspicion with a vote simply gives the appearance of consensus, which is a powerful factor. Araris', meanwhile, avoided making any firm statement of suspicion, which means he can very easily back off if it goes south. He merely said that someone had to be lynched first, which means if I'm lynched and revealed to be a villager he can just shrug. Either of those actions allow Elims to more easily divest responsibility
  22. @Elenion, what do you think of this argument? I'm still suspicious of you, but this raises a good point. At the same time, I'd argue the same could be held true for me, and I'm hesitant to withdraw my vote when you're engaging in what I feel is suspicious behavior. Not only that, Araris did rescind his poke vote after my initial post in response, and placed it back soon thereafter. That seems a bit suspicious to me; he rescinded his vote to make it look as if he weren't sticking to his guns on a poke vote, and then placed it back once I became an acceptable target of suspicion. I'm curious as to why. @Araris Valerian, care to provide an explanation? Updated vote count: Walin (1): Mark IV Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Val, Fifth Bugsy (2): Araris, Elenion Araris (2): Eternum, Mr Doctor Elenion (1): Bugsy
  23. Were I attempting to be opportunistic, wouldn't it make much more sense to vote back on him because he had voted on me and simply wait to retract until he did so as well? I could simply have flown beneath the radar. As an elim, I certainly wouldn't be calling attention to something that minor this early in the game, especially because the elims have no incentive to direct the vote this early; it's very unlikely we'll hit an elim day one, so they can just stay back and later vote on targets of opportunity after skating beneath the radar. Speaking of, isn't this sort of what you're doing? I said Araris' post was NAI, but slighly Elim at worst. You say this is opportunistic, although I fail to see it at all as advantageous. Then, as you accuse me of being opportunistic, you do the very same thing, saying you're voting for me because you're "not seeing much better stuff to vote off of at the moment". You're acting in a far more opportunistic manner than I am, voting on someone who's already leading in votes for an infraction you admit is minor and for something you yourself have done. I did not even vote in mine, leading to absolutely no influence on the lynch, much less on someone eliminators would deem an acceptable target because I'm already subject to suspicion Elenion, you currently appear to be the best choice for a lynch to me. EditL Just realized I wasn't leading in votes, but as this tied me for the lead I believe the point stands. Here's an updated votecount, far as I can figure it: Walin (1): Mark IV Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Val, Fifth Bugsy (2): Araris, Elenion Araris (1): Eternum Elenion (1): Bugsy
  24. No, I'm just about certain it was a joke, and that it's almost completely NAI. If it is indicative of alignment at all, though, I'd say it's more indicative of being evil than not. If I have everyone at 50% village read to start, it might move him to 49%, say. Certainly not enough to lynch on with any semblance of comfort
  25. I don't recall where this was, but I remember Steel making a statement that someone killing a mostly dead player takes precedence over the pill, because the kill is earlier in the order of actions.