Bugsy

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Bugsy last won the day on April 14 2016

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About Bugsy

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    Bugsy

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    Running, reading, writing, theoretical and applied sciences, coding (mainly Python), Model UN, skiing, tubing, swimming, politics, my dog, and, of course, SE

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  1. Then Emi, you removing your vote would be helpful to the village. Is that something you’re willing to do?
  2. Sorry for the double post, but I want these tags to actually work as expected. @Coda and @Mist, you voting on Mega makes the tie, it doesn’t break it. Please, if you’re online, vote now.
  3. Uhhhh, guys, do keep in mind that Matrim has said they’ll be manipulating the vote against me I’d appreciate if our tie attempts take that into account and have one more vote on Mega than he has right now
  4. BR's also been the suspect most conveniently pushed by a lot of people who then backed off the Silber lynch, to be fair. I think it's entirely plausible that they're an inactive villager that the elims want us to kill so we waste a lynch
  5. Yeahhh, no. There’s no chance the elims let the village lynch Winsting. That’s a loss for them. Let’s imagine what happens if Winsting is leading in the lynch. Is there any chance that one of the elims doesn’t unmask to warm us off? Having Winsting up for the lynch is a best-case scenario for the village, because it means the elims have to sacrifice a teammate just to continue the game.
  6. They're saying that if someone extorted Zillah to target person x, person x's vote would have disappeared. The fact that it didn't means an extortionist didn't force Zillah to target someone who actually cast a vote
  7. Before manipulation: Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist Silber (6): bugsy, detess, experience, xinohep, kynedath, devotary DeTess (1): emi After manipulation: Bugsy (5): Matrim, Megasif, Mist, Sart, Silber Silber (5): Bugsy, DeTess, Devotary, Experience, Kynedath, Xinohep DeTess (1): Emi The only difference here is that one of the votes on Silber was removed. Either it was smuggled off, or an extortionist targeted an inactive impersonator, I'm not sure which. @Sart, did you smuggle a vote off? I'm still leaning village on you, because I doubt the elims have repeat roles, and if you tell us you're the smuggler you'll have saved us from a bit of a wild goose chase. Based on TJ's analysis, either Silber or Zillah had to have been the elim impersonator. Given the absence of an impersonation last night, and given Zillah's inactivity that same cycle, I'd say they're almost certainly an elim. Because tonight is an even cycle, let's have a village bartender kill them if one's available - no use wasting a lynch on someone who's already basically dead to rights, especially when it would destroy a cycle's worth of discussion. As for who else is suspicious, I'd go with Megasif. He's been cagey for awhile, and acted as if he was considering the Silb lynch without ever showing signs of following through. At first, he based his opposition on a series of clear misunderstandings - first about what happens when there's a tie, second about me supposedly 'threatening' the village, etc. Those misunderstandings all strike me as a little too convenient for his purposes, as he forced DeTess and I to spend most of the cycle answering his specious arguments instead of actually doing further analysis. Even once those arguments were addressed, he maintained the same course of action, now absent any justification, and disappeared for the remainder of the cycle. He's very suspicious to me, and I think he should be our lynch target today. Oh, and tonight's the night the elims can extort me and redirect my kill, but I doubt that's what they'll do. More likely, they'll extort Winsting into making a kill, since they know his identity and it sets them up to have another escort every even cycle for awhile. That means we either need the elims to roleblock both me and Winsting, or we need to redirect / roleblock the elim extortionist. Edit: Oh, right, some more RP. Here's cycles 2 and 3 The quality declined a bit as I got more and more busy with the actual game Still, figure it's worth posting
  8. Excellent. Here's an updated votecount: Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist Silber (5): bugsy, detess, experience, xinohep, kynedath DeTess (1): emi Again, I'd stress the elims still have vote manip, which means this is a dangerous position to be in. Even if Silber isn't an elim, they'll manipulate the vote to save him tonight just to frame him - if we can get two more votes on him, or get one person to switch off of me and onto him, we set it up so their vote manip still maintains the tie. @Megasif, you said earlier you thought you might owe me a tie. Now's your time to shine DeTess and TJ had some analysis that implicated him. I'm not sure what was happening with Pyro there, but given his penchant for misleading people during this game, I'm going to stop trying to analyze his behavior behind-the-scenes based on my woefully incomplete information. Since I'm not sure how much longer I'll have to post it, here's some RP from the Bleeder doc. This snip is from Cycle 1, I'll post some from other cycles later
  9. Vote Count: Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist Silber (3): bugsy, detess, experience DeTess (1): emi @Sart @Megasif @Matrim's_Dice @Mist, if you want this cycle to actually be productive for the village, please move your vote to Silber. He's one of two possibilities for the elim's remaining vote manipulation, and if we can remove that ability from their arsenal, we can ensure that future village lynch efforts are way more successful. If we kill him and he's an elim, perfect. If not, we know for a fact that Zillah is, per TJ's analysis and confirmed by DeTess. @Emi, DeTess is about as cleared as you can get. Please consider switching your vote to Silber, that's something that would be super helpful to the village. @xinoehp512, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Kynedath, you all are presumptive villagers. You have a chance to benefit the village here. Silber - a likely elim - started the lynch train on me, it was continued under false pretenses, and then it was shored up when people started switching off. That's all super sketchy, and I'm sure some of your biggest elim suspects are a part of it. They're trying to save Silber. Please vote before the cycle ends, and at least give the village a tie. The elims have vote manipulation left. So does Sart. I think the breakdown most likely to give us a tie is when Silber has 2 more votes than me, and that means we need a swing of 4. If anyone voting for me right now swaps trains, they'd account for half of what we need. Please do this before the cycle end - it literally costs the village nothing, and could be super advantageous.
  10. Pretty sure Winsting can use any non-faction ability
  11. I’m not aiming to win. I fully expect and am resigned to being killed at some point this game. I just want vengeance on the elims before then And the elims know who Winsting is, so it’s doubtful they’d kill him accidentally. I think the bigger village concern is that if I die, they can kill Winsting freely, and take out a big village asset in doing so
  12. So are you willing to help us get a tie by voting on Silber? Well, we know that either Silber or Zillah are elims, so even if it isn’t Silber the lynch benefits the village. They don’t get that extra kill if a village escort targets me on even-numbered cycles (since that’s when they’ve been redirecting me, and a roleblock would prevent that) Well, we know that either Silb or Zillah are the elims’ vote manip. So it’s kinda urgent that we figure out which and take them out. For like the 5th time this cycle, no you can’t I haven’t been able to take an action in the past 3 cycles because I’ve been redirected and roleblocked every night. That’s not going to stop now that I’ve publicly claimed Bleeder. There’s no way I can kill Winsting, because there’s no way I can kill anyone It’s not an either-or. The idea is to cause a tie, which makes both me and Silber die. That way, you get the best of both worlds
  13. ...where have you seen me say this? I’ve explicitly said that even if I don’t submit a kill, the elims can force me to use a kill action anyways.
  14. ‘Suspicious’ in the sense that there’s no reason a villager would oppose a chance to get an extra elim. I don’t understand your reasoning, and frankly there doesn’t seem to be any You just don’t want to lynch an elim
  15. There’s only two ways people die at this point - they’re killed by the elims, or they’re lynched by the village. One of those is guaranteed to hurt the village, the other has a chance of helping. Lynching is a risk, for sure. But it’s NOT an ‘unnecessary’ risk, because if we don’t do it we’ll never hit an elim. If we have the option to increase the number of village kills without giving any extra kills to the elims, I see no reason we shouldn’t take it. Doesn’t matter if I find Winsting, because I can’t kill him. All but 2 of my actions this game have been redirected or roleblocked, and it’s virtually certain that’ll happen again for every cycle left this game. BR isn’t active It looks like the current candidate for a tie is Silb, if you’re willing to join that vote train Not how it works. Extortionists can force me to use my kill action, even if I don’t send in an order to use it myself. @Megasif, you’re really striking me as suspicious right now. What’s your role?