DrakeMarshall

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DrakeMarshall last won the day on February 28 2018

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  1. ...halfway there... ...I admit I'm at least a little paranoid by the sheer number of votes on Steel...
  2. I mean, with the number of Steel voters, it does seem likely that elims are in there, but I think it paints a very different picture depending on whether they were in the first few votes or the last few votes of the Steel train. One implies v!Steel, the other doesn't. Also, there were a lot of people involved in scanning Steel. If the elims wanted to frame Steel, that would not actually be that easy. ...But alright. I'll entertain the assumption of village!Steel, for one post. See where it leads me, at least. Everything after this point is analysis under the assumption that Steel is a villager. I do not think he is one, but these are things I think would follow from it if he were. There are two sides of this. Vote Analysis If Steel is village, then this is a premeditated frame-up. Therefore, some of the early votes that kicked off the Steel train are probably cast by elims. I am arbitrarily going to decide that my cutoff for this is the first 5 votes. The first 5 votes on Steel were: Me Wizard Araris Matrim Fadran Some of these people ought to be evil. Role Analysis Araris, Biplet, Fadran, and Randby were all potentially involved in guaranteeing the legitimacy of the scan. If the elims framed Steel, then for each of those players, there most likely ought to be a reason they were unable to guarantee the legitimacy of the scan. Either because they are evil, or because the elims took an action against them. Randby: Village, due to being the NK target (NKing an elim to line up a single ML is a bad trade). Therefore, required an action from the elims to troll. Fadran: Either evil and trolled Randby while claiming to be blocked, or village and required an action from the elims to block. Biplet: Highly suspicious. Biplet claims to have taken a successful action last night. If village!Biplet, her Meme Maker scan could ruin the entire elim plan to frame Steel, so why didn't they interfere with her action??? Difficult to explain this if Biplet is village. Araris: Araris could be evil and lying about not submitting an action, or he could be village and unaware that the elims targeted him. Again, some of these people ought to be evil. I do not believe past cycles have given us very much evidence that the elims could field a whopping 4 roleblock+troll actions (if they were capable of this, I strongly doubt Bookwyrm would have gotten as many scans done before dying). So the simplest explanation is some of them are evil. Conclusions [Biplet, Fadran, Araris] are all suspicious. Entirely plausible that multiple elims exist within this pool.
  3. Wizard did indeed target me N3, you are correct. That does, at least, confirm that you are a genuine spider, and that you weren't doing anything else with your action last night Which is somewhat valuable in of itself. Well, either that or you're E/E with Wizard. But by extension that would require you to be E/E/E with Wizard and Fae, so I think that hypothesis is unlikely.
  4. No I don't agree that this is necessarily the case. Sart literally hasn't posted since the vote shenanigans, so we really don't know what they were thinking. There was enough confusion at the time that I'm not going to immediately assume it was eliminator action. Could it have been? Yes. I'll agree that an elim potentially has more ulterior motives for doing this than a villager. But Sart absolutely wasn't the only person making last-minute changes to the vote. And the fact of the matter is, a lot of those last-minute changes canceled out and the tie still ended up happening. I don't think you can say that everyone making last-minute changes is an eliminator, and so I don't think you can say that there are no reasons a villager would vote during the end of the cycle. Also, I will remind you that if Steel is evil, then this tie is completely irrelevant. This argument only holds water if Steel is village, which means it is not going to be very convincing to me or presumably others who think Steel is an elim. Yes I do actually. I have mentioned that the fact Sart hasn't claimed might actually be a slight point for village!Sart. In a game like this, with no flips and a bunch of roleclaiming, it seems decently likely that the elims would have developed a plan in their doc for what each of them would claim. If they didn't coordinate this it could be bad for them, right? I would definitely try to hammer out a concerted plan for what everyone claims if I was in their shoes. This is supported by the fact that it is only Sart who hasn't claimed. This makes Sart stick out, which does not seem like something the elims would want, and it gives us evidence that most of the elims must have already claimed. They aren't just being lazy and not thinking of things to claim, most likely. I would look slightly more suspiciously at unsubstantiated roleclaims, or roleclaims where the accounting for that player's actions feel sketchy. Is this a strong village credence? Not really. Like I said, a Sart lynch sounds okay to me. But I do in fact have some reason to believe Sart is a villager. Does it though? If you think the redscan result on Steel is fake, then the elims would have to have planned it before today. In which case, the fact that a Sart wagon developed earlier today has very little bearing. In the world where Steel is village, they would have voted up Steel today no matter what.
  5. Vote Tally Steeldancer (8): Araris Valerian, Archer, Channelknight Fadran, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard, The last Fae in the Woods, |TJ| Sart (2): Amanuensis, Ashbringer Okay I guess this isn't going to go away if I ignore it huh So on the one hand, if you ignore that Stick shot Tani, I would be reasonably suspicious of me too. On the other hand, I don't really see how you ignore that sticking point. I mean yes I'm not solidly cleared but it feels like a pretty convincing argument. If you really want me to explain what I was going for with claiming that Stick shot TKN then I can do so but don't expect it to make sense Of the other people you listed: I will go to bat for Mat I wouldn't mind an exe on Sart I don't really have any read of JNV, but would probably oppose their exe unless PoE or some other evidence pointed that way more strongly that way than it currently does Take that how you will.
  6. Or the Confirmed Villager role could be given to elims. Nothing in the description Fadran provided says that it has to be given to villagers, only that it makes people scan as village. And I am fairly sure the humor of making an elim a "confirmed villager" would not be lost on our GMs Agree, this scan result is fairly inconclusive. Steel could be village, I don't think that's really in question. Or at least, I don't think it should be Steel could also be evil though, and independent of the scan I think Steel's Tie Guy claim is sketchy. Is there a particular reason you village read Steel, or is it more just Vibes:tm: Tbf, Sart got like 4 votes at the beginning of this day turn, so I don't think Sart is slipping under the radar exactly Goalkeeper is strictly a night action right? Aman has 2 different night actions to choose between, not 1 day and 1 night. Which is interesting, because if not for that I would conclude that people aren't given role combinations that result in having 2 different night actions. On a mostly unrelated note, if dead elims can take kill actions, can they be roleblocked? Edit: Ash ninja'd me
  7. No, it doesn’t. Steel was the one who reported the results for the second tie. It Steel is an elim, then those results are invalid. That said, I respect a healthy skepticism about scans. Trolling is still a fairly large possibility here. That said, I still don’t trust Steel, and therefore won’t complain too hard that everyone suddenly decided to vote for him
  8. I think the only reasonable way to evaluate all of these claims is to take them as a probability. Contingent on the person making the claim not being village, being messed with by a troll or confirmed villager, or just plain being incorrect about what happened. Anyways, I'm curious as to what the deal is with Sart as well, although a priori I don't see how weirdness surrounding targeting Sart is especially alignment indicative. Except in that I am surprised that this appears to both be a very similar but also different ability from what Archer has, which probably means something? But I don't know what yet. Sart is a reasonably suspicious individual for other reasons, though: Sart's voting decision at EoD was a lil funky, and besides that any kind of role-based PoE includes Sart due to being the only player who hasn't claimed any role yet. On the other hand... If only one person hasn't claimed, then I think it's pretty clear that the elim doc has decided to take a more proactive policy with roleclaiming. So honestly that might point to village!Sart. The Sart train makes some amount of sense, but regardless, I have already registered my preference that we execute Steel. I believe that e!Steel has a clear motive to lie about there being 2 elims in the D4 Tie Guy pool since Steel was in Orlok's D3 Tie Guy pool but not in that one. Vote Tally Sart (4): Amanuensis, Archer, Ashbringer, |TJ| Steeldancer (1): DrakeMarshall There may or may not be votes missing from this tally, you know the drill. Please @ me if you find any
  9. I mean, the player who was supposed to scan you hasn't posted yet, so the fact that you're in defense mode already over that feels a bit telling, but that's none of my business :P. My vote is cast independent of any scan that may or may not have happened against you today, although I am still very interested in what Randby will say when they get online. I voted for you because: Your Tie Guy results seem dubious. I believe you are 1 of the 2 elims found in Orlok's Tie Guy scan. At least, I'm pretty sure that's why the sacred numbers told me to vote for you. The sacred numbers work in mysterious ways
  10. Don't you check if players have been trolled? So the elims would only possibly troll you if they have at least 2 trolls, otherwise there'd be not much point, right? Which, granted, is a possibility we can't rule out. How likely do people think it is that the elims have at least 1 troll?
  11. I'm going to preemptively vote Steel bc the sacred numbers told me to and therefore I must do it, but Randby's insight on the subject would be most welcome. You are strong and wise and I am very proud of you. Excuse you sir when did I say anything of the sort? What I have been saying is that I am a pacifist I do not understand why everybody finds this proposition so doubtful. What is incongruous about me being a pacifist?
  12. Oh, well that's something. I've come to the conclusion that there are way too many conditional probabilities for my frail human brain to sort out by sheer intuition, so I've resorted to math. This cannot possibly go wrong, because math is never wrong I will keep you apprised of anything I might find. Edit: For the record, I am still a pacifist.
  13. Yo would any of our Tie Guys be able to tell me what happens when a Tie Guy is trolled?
  14. Yes, well spotted As a prize for your keen insight, have some more memes: #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7