Mark IV

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Everything posted by Mark IV

  1. Upon rereading the rules and thinking a little on what Devotary says here: I find it more likely that the SITC might have a Doctor and the NITC might have a Trapper (of course, there might be more than one of each, but we don't know that either). Ican't shake off the feeling that having the distribution like that would make more sense, because having a trapper just grants the SITC 2 kills per day. In a game of 17 people, to me, that feels like a lot. On the other hand, with a doctor on their side, they can resuscitate any of their members in the hospital, which necessitates a trapper for the village. It seems like it fits, but it's hardly the only possibility. Just one possibility that I thought of. On that note, as Devotary said, it seems quite easy at the moment to figure out the identities of the trapper(s) and the doctor(s). I'm not quite sure what to do about that or whether we should just leave it as it is. When do you guys think the bird cage will get sabotaged? Sooner or later? Personally, I feel that while it is an appealing target, the Sak and the Kokerlii are better birds for mid/end game situations. At the moment, I don't have much else to say really. Just thought I'd give my two cents on the game mechanics. Also, given that there's no vote minimum, all the people with poke votes are equally up for the lynch right now. While Araris certainly cast his vote with the most murderous of intentions, I don't think Lopen or Drake Mrake cast their votes to kill their targets. @Amanuensis you want to say anything to Araris?
  2. SIGN ME UP! I'd like to join in as Mark. It's been a long time. Phew. Let us hope I don't die in the first round.
  3. I'll sign up for an AG, whether it is anonymous or not. I think it's kind of fitting that I'm playing the last game of the first person I killed as an elim. Seonid, I still apologize for killing you N1 in AG2, especially given that that game started on a night cycle. I don't see the point of giving my character a name beyond any sign ups post RP, so yeah. No name for me, I guess. Mark IV, signing up for AG5.
  4. Yeah. I was sort of expecting you guys to do that. But then you'd have no elim kill to show for except for the one you did one me. Which would have cleared me to an extent. Although then there's the whole IKYK where the elims decided to not attack so elim!Mark could make that argument. Eh. Edit: Yeah. Steel didn't target me (I'm guessing he was Rand? Can't remember). So, yeah.
  5. @Amanuensis I can't remove this tag anymore, so eh. I was hardy. I wouldn't have died anyways.
  6. Well, I'm not a forsaken, so Rand didn't kill Aginor if he hit me. The game is over. It doesn't matter if specifically Rand died. I don't see how three elims could outnumber the village of cause the eye to fall at this point in time. The evidence seems to suggest there were 4 elims alive N6. Edit: Ninja'd again. That explains a lot, I guess.
  7. I genuinely thought we lost until I read this. I was confused as to how we went from around 10 players to just 5-6 given that there's no creatures of Aginor. So, yeah. I think the village won? Idk. Edit: nevermind. I'm still just as confused I guess. Edit 2: there were none people alive the the start of this turn. If we assume 4 elims alive, then they just had to kill one of the village to win. If we assume 3 elims alive, then they'd have had to kill three villagers to win. So, I guess there were 4 elims alive.
  8. Your logic has been sounding more and more one sided so far. Most of the arguments you made based on the fact that I'm part of the Fal Dara doc can be made against you too. But, you state them as if when I'm checked, then there'll be no need to check you. This is the same kind of odd phrasing that rang alarms for me in your earlier post too. It's unnerving me more and more. Also, you've yet to reply to my last post I think? (That, or I just missed your post, which I don't think I did) Honestly, I don't think Moiraine's circle is as big of a threat to the elims as the Fielders are. The Fielders can kill Creatures of Aginor, which are, in my opinion, the strongest weapon in the Eliminators' arsenal. In contrast, Moiraine's circle can easily be countered by simply prolonging the amount of time the Barriers hold up. If the blight is already doing a high amount of base damage, and if the number of players are low, the blight will quickly tear through the eye and Rand won't have much of a chance to use his ability as compared to if the blight had gotten there earlier. So, yeah. I think I'm shifting my opinion of Aman to neutral for now. Also, yeah. I'd be up for being scanned. It'd certainly be help in the future.
  9. I forgot to mention this in my post: I forgot to defend last cycle. I'll definitely be defending today! Reminder to other people too. Don't forget to defend!
  10. I don't find Randuir suspicious. I think I mentioned this D5? I said I thought (and I still think) Randuir is most likely village because of his vote on BR D4. I was silicious of him D2 because I generally get vary when someone starts assuming the role of genuinely helpful villager, which players like Randuir or you start doing early on (by all means, keep it up. It's just that it feels too good to be true, so my alarms start blaring). Ah. Now I see what you mean. Firstly, yes, I literally said something like "I'm assuming you lost your vote because of a defence action?". Personally, I didn't think saying "Did you lose your vote because of sabotage?" would field much discussion. I'm not very good at pulling of such things, and had I said something along those lines, it would have most likely looked like I was trying to throw unnecessary shade on Rathmaskal. As mentioned in my previous post, I was focusing mostly on the 20% negations. I had almost forgotten about Mondaine and Aginor's actions at the time. While I didn't think these thoughts consciously, it was evident to me at some level that accusing him of sabotage would accomplish nothing. I could as well accuse every player that they summoned the latest Creature of Aginor. It would produce as much sweat because I can't prove anything for it or against it, as was the case with the sabotage accusation. Secondly, my suspicion of Rathmaskal was based on how quickly be retracted his D1 vote from that other player (say X, cause I can't remember their name, and I'm not going to go check right now). The sequence essentially was: Rath votes for X based partly on the previous game's outcome/interaction. X responds by saying they're there and that they weren't an elim the previous game anyways. So, there's no reason Rath has to vote for X. Rath jovially removes his vote. This exchange seemed suspicious to me because either Rath had been betrayed last game, and was still weary of X. If this was the case, I'd have expected X to have been an elim (how else would they have betrayed Rath). However, this appeared not to be the case. On the other hand, it could have been simply that Rath had wanted an excuse to put in a quick D1 vote to appear contributive to discussion while not actually saying/doing anything, which is a classic elim tactic. Given that the first of these possibilities was quickly shown wrong, I thought it could be that the second possibility might be true. I didn't actually think this was what might save me. At the time I thought it was a bad idea, but I decided "What the heck? If he's evil, he can't substantiate his claim in thread anyways, so I might as well see what he says.". Analysis aside, Happy Journey! Might as well vote for me already. In all honesty, I'd urge you to consider a team where neither Aman nor I am (are?) on the elim team. Given that from my point of view, I know I'm innocent, and I've a village read on Aman, to me, it appears you're missing something and that none of the teams you've outlined is right. So, yeah. Just a suggestion. I'm not all that good at keeping a track of things, else I would have done it myself. Anyways, I'm off to sleep. Incase you guys want to vote me out, go ahead. Even if I can't defend myself, it'd be information for the village if I died too. I don't mind dying. So, yeah. If you guys think I'm an elim, don't hesitate to vote for me just cause I'll not be on before roll over. I think that's all? Edit: I'm on for another half an hour, in case anyone else has any questions.
  11. The quote in this post says I don't have permission to view it. Not sure what's going on here, or whether I should notify the mods or something. This is happening for a couple other quotes too. Now, onto my response: @Amanuensis I mean, not much to say here. The only reason I mentioned how long ago I'd played with her was because it felt odd to me that she was making so much noise, but none of it was very constructive. (No offence BR, it's just a good analogy). So, yeah. I was unsure whether she usually did this. I was already leaning village on Karn before his "slip". But, giving bad advice to the village would be a good move for the elims, if they didn't get caught doing it. I only prodded at karn a little to see what he might say. From his response, I didn't find anything suspicious, and so I left it there. It was very likely that Village!Karn had just made a mistake because I don't see the elim team telling an elim!Karn to go post bad advice. Yeah, as mentioned, I had a mild gut-feel about Randuir and a gut feel about BR. I'd like to mention here, to anyone that wants to analyse D2, that I started this post with the intent to vote for Rathmaskal but by the time I'd come to actually colouring my vote in, BR had already retracted her vote. So, I decided to vote for snip. Side Note: I realised right now that I took brain surgery on the advice of Balthamel. Not sure what that's done to me. Perhaps I ought to get a second opinion. Antor's opinion would be highly valued, @Mr Doctor. Yeah. I had no idea whether players were informed because I hadn't had my vote negated yet. You mentioned something along those lines (that I hadn't lost my vote that day) yourself the next night. The reason I assumed it was a defence action was that I thought Rath would inform us if he got a notification that his block was because of some other action. At the time, I wasn't sure whether the GMs differentiated between Moiraine's negation, the defence/sabotage negation or anything else (I think those are the only two/three? Also, Aginor's vote negation. Completely missed that.) (Specifically, at the moment, I was focused on the defence/sabotage negation. I don't know why.) An elim could also lose their vote in the sabotage. Rath had no choice but to come forward with his negated vote, in case he was planning to actually hide it (that sounded better in my mind). Also, he didn't really lose much by claiming (truthfully) that he lost his vote (albeit due to sabotage of due to defence) because we didn't have an accurate count of the total number of defence actions anyways. At this moment, I'd like to point to this post: Where Randuir mentions Aman and reminds him of the reason Rath wasn't cleared. Which is exactly what I also just did. >.> I vote for Snip, I get called out. I don't vote for Meta, I get called out. At this point, I don't much care if I get called out for (not) jumping on a bandwagon. This kind of analysis can (and right now, will) end in an IKYK, imo) More like I finally found something I could help with. Oh, I just was thinking that it's interesting BR was the first player he commented on and one of two he had a strong gut suspicion of, but he never voted for her and she turned out to be evil. FTFY I had to chose between Randuir and BR. I chose Randuir. Lastly, my response to Aman's post yesterday: Link here in case anyone wants to read the whole post for context. I know it looks like I'm biased against this post (and, I might probably be, but I'm trying my best not to), but what I found odd was Aman's use of an inconclusive piece of logic to throw shade on me. Pulled out of context it sounds like: "If hypothesis H is true, then player P is definitely evil. " The statement brings to mind the plausibility of the truth of the claim (which may or may not be true), but we ignores the fact that we can't fundamentally say anything about Hypothesis H. It would be equally helpful if I said "Is it likely that Aman is Aginor? If so, the we should most definitely lynch him." (There is a slight difference in the two statements, but given that Aman won't implicate himself, it's fundamentally the same from his point of view. However, Aman's Hypothesis H is not provable at all (I don't think). In my case though, it is possible to have reasonable suspicions about a player's role). It is understandable that he may say this, but it didn't sit well with me that it was him saying it. Felt off. I ALMOST FORGOT! Yes, I claimed to be an elim in the Fal Dara Doc. Aman's response to me was that he was mildly vexed that he had had to go through all my posts, whereas he could have just opened the doc for "confirmation". Then he expressed joy at being right in his guess. IMO, the spontaneity of his response seemed genuine, and I'm inclined to believe at the moment (despite what the last paragraph might suggest) that Aman is in fact a villager. This kind of response was the reason I said I was an elim in the first place. Elim!Aman would have probably tried to counter me and say I was wrong (less likely) or try to find out what secret role I had that I had claimed to be an elim outside the normal doc (slightly likely) or have responded as he did (slightly likely). Aman seemed annoyed at having to go through the trouble to make a long post for nothing. As an elim, he would have already resigned himself to the fact that the post was ultimately in vain. Either I'm being supremely duped here, or Aman is likely village. This does bring up the question of which team of elims would leave the active players alive so late into the game. As someone mentioned previously, older players might on a matter of principle leave active players alive, to make the game fun. I know I did that in the games where I was an elim. But, this seems to be a strict adherence to that principle. I think it might be worth it to take a look at that list of old players again. That's it for my response, I guess. If I find something to analyse, I'll make a second post. However, it's unlikely that I will.
  12. Ah. I forgot to ask: Are we defending this cycle? I'm assuming we are. But I don't recall finding any comments as to whether we wanted the 6th ring specifically. I guess the downside to prolonging our defense is that Rand gets fewer turns where he can try killing the forsaken. So, yeah. Idk.
  13. @Furamirionind Yeah, my other suspicion was Randuir. It was very insubstantial at the time. I'd rather not have voted at the time because it was already D2. I'd have preferred to have had some iota of suggestive evidence against anyone I'd vote for. So, yeah. So far, from my reading of D4 and N4, I feel Randuir is (very likely) Village. On his tail (and probably more cleared) is CadCom. Randuir was the first person to vote for BR and was the reason BR was lynched. While this could have been him bussing BR, I'm willing to discount that possibility. Specifically because his claim about the other person in the Fielder's Doc seems like it would have been too well thought out, had it been Elim!Randuir that was posting. I'm not saying no one's capable of this, but that it's too much of an IKYK sort of thing. So, yeah. I feel CadCom's even more cleared because I don't see an elim being the second vote on Balthamel. DroughtBringer. Reading through D4 and N4, I was getting increasingly convinced that Drought might be elim. Part of it is his vote being the last one on BR's lynch. On its own its NAI. Even I did that with one of the lynches (Snip's, I think?). However, combined wtih what Fura and a few other have posted, I'm inclined to believe this is our best lead right now (well, except for that other Fielder, but idk who that might really be). I can't remember the other reasons right now. I am however, confident in the opinion of my past self. Regarding this, I get the logic here (and I don't have a problem with it), but the tone of this post is not what I've come to expect of Aman. Specifically the way the last two sentences are phrased. I've never seen that kind of phrasing from you, so yeah. Perhaps I can point out what I'm not happy with when I'm less sleepy. (It just seems very unprofessional, so to speak) It's currently 2 am, and it is also the third turn since I last posted. I'd like to apologise for my inactivity, but I had exams this weekend. So, yeah. I'm sorry about the quality of this post, but I had to get something out, and I didn't want it to be a one-liner. Edit: Yeah. Problem is, the same logic can be applied backward, meaning Aman could also be an elim. Which is why I don't find this line of reasoning very useful. Also, note that I haven't seen an hour's worth of posts because I was writing this one very slowly and never refreshed the tab. Edit 2: But now I've seen them.
  14. Some info: Name Total Votes | Negated votes | Effective votes Meta 7 . 4 3 Furamir 2 . 1 1 BR . 1 . 0 1 Rath . 1 . 0 1 Mr Dr . 1 0 1 Randuir . 1 0 1 Total 13 5 8 Randuir, I don't get your point here. Okay, say we now knew that there were 8 defense actions. What now? We know for certain that atleast 3 people defended. 5, if no one sabotaged and Aginor didn't negate because 5 people lost their votes. Maybe the remaining 3 people in this scenario that defended didn't vote (there's 16 people alive by my count). (However, I just remembered Stink is MIA, so yeah) I don't see how you can conclude much about anything given the total number of successful defend actions. (My apologies to mobile users. Landscape mode might help if it isn't showing correctly) I don't get how that says anything as neither sabotage nor defend have side efrfects that can be controlled. Unless you're saying none of us defended in the first place. Which leaves the possibility of us being elims. In that case, if we were elims but not forsaken, we'd have definitely done the sabotage action, which leaves your point moot because that carries a 20% chance of vote negation anyways. Therefore we might be the forsaken. In Aginor's case, he already has a vote negation ability. Which means, if they're smart, the elims might already have negated one of their own votes as a mild WGG. So, you can't really conclude much from the lack of negation on the four of us. On a side note, this is also an argument against the fact that anyone that was vote negated might be hard-cleared. Some stats: The above picture gives the probability of X number of effective votes, assuming all votes were negated due to the 20% chance of either sabotage or defend. It should be noted that the peak occurs at 11 effective votes. Which does mean someone was possibly negated by Aginor. But then again, this is probability. I wouldn't bet my life on it. Edit: I forgot to ask - Out of those who voted, is there anyone who forgot to put in a defence action?
  15. This vote switch and subsequent ones to MetaTerminal seem slightly forced. My first instinct was that it was a ploy to save furamir (TBH, that is what drought said he is doing). MetaTerminal has a justification for voting for Furamir. I can understand his hesitance for voting, but he posted his reasoning before HH (Ookla of the East) and from the looks of his post, wanted to reread the round before voting. While it may seem like little justification, it certainly wasn't no justification. I don't understand this wagon on MetaTerminal. In the interest of expressing suspicion, Randuir . I don't expect you to be lynched this cycle. However, I'm voting to, as I said, express my suspicion of you. I'm in mobile right now, so yeah. I'm not going to do an analysis post right now. This night cycle however, I'll likely make some posts. Hopefully.
  16. Sure. As long as that's all you do (and I'm left alive), I don't mind. Yeah. Didn't realise it was a night turn. I thought people were going to be voting today. :facepalm: That aside, I'd like to ask: Why have we concluded the Rathmaskal's negation came from some other player? It could have very well been the defend action negation. There was a 40% chance of that. So, yeah. (Unless he mentions it was ebcause of something else, then I probably missed it.)
  17. I mention I wanted to vote Rathmaskal. However, if you see, BR removed her vote minutes before I posted. Therefore, in the interest of preventing vote manipulation, I cemented the vote in Snip. I'll admit, I jumped on the wagon. I had no reason to suspect Snip, and I honestly found his posts on D1 NAI at the very least. However, I voted for him because I wanted closure for the D1 vote result. His hardy status didn't us much. So, yeah. That's that. Also, I've had a mishap today and injured myself (I know, medical problems are annoying >.>) So, I haven't had much of a look at the game. Just a quick glance through the thread. I don't have enough information to vote at this point, and I'm exhausted right now. If I can get up in time in the morning and read through the thread before rollover, I'll make a vote. (And, yes. It'll likely again be hopping into a bandwagon because I do t think I stand a chance of actually lynching anyone that's already under fire) That said, I'll likely vote for Rathmaskal or BR or Randuir. Idk why, but they've got my gut stirring. If I can't substantiate my gut feel with some evidence, I'll probably not vote at all. Anyways, I'm feeling very sleepy now, so I'm signing off. Edit: On a second skim of the thread, I think I'm getting Randuir confused with Karnatheon in this post. I should sleep. So, yeah.
  18. Snip had 5 people vote for him. The count shows that only 4 of them were effective. It was also possible that the elim team left Snip alone because he'd already been lynched once for relatively non-random reasons (by D1 standards). So, they expected we'd lynch him again anyways, for whatever reason. I know I would have left him alone. Edit: There was a 40% chance for a single vote to be negated by the defend action. Thought I'd put it in.
  19. "What splendid coincidence!" Lars said with a gleam in his eye. "Astoril was a butcher before he decided to apprentice to a surgeon!" Spinning around to his hand-servants, Lars motioned them to book an appointment for Antor. "Tell Astoril to make double the preparations! We're having a brain celebration!" Lars turned to face Antor again "I'm so glad you decided to change your mind."