Arraenae

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About Arraenae

  • Birthday March 14

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  • Gender
    Female
  • Location
    Who knows?
  • Interests
    Reading, drawing, writing, and engaging in paranoia-inducing mind games.

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  1. Be a GM, then you can never be pocketed because you know everyone's alignment
  2. ...yeah, what Straw said. Forget I said anything.
  3. Please put all votes in red. If you're not sure how to get red from the editor, another way to do it is to type in [colour=red]NAME[/colour], but with American spelling with no u.
  4. Another day, another body. Varen’s dead, impaled by a spike through the gut. Still, at least they haven't gotten all of us yet. Maybe this change in leadership has been good for you lot, eh? Mint, looks like you're the new suspicion of today, huh. And a more credible one too! They say they found a metal spike in your bag, like the ones the murderers are using. Still, we've got to do this the civilized way. Off to the basement with you! Here's a bucket, so you and Caliex can, uh, do your necessary business a little more cleanly. Maybe I should have figured that out yesterday, but oh well. Better dirty than dead. I'm thinking that maybe we should rob House Orielle again. Seemed like an easy enough mark last time. Or maybe we should go for the Hastings? Everybody, if you want to have a say, write it down in plain purple which House you want to rob. Mint was lynched and was an Obligator! Striker was killed and was a Skaa! Vote Count: Mint (5): Vapor, Eternum, Mystic, Fifth, Striker Mystic (3): Ashbringer, Truthwatcher, Mint Player list
  5. Alright, alright, alright. Surprisingly enough, you’re not all dead yet. Other than Box, unfortunately enough. We really need to fix this murderer problem soon, or this crew won’t exist for much longer. I see you have a new suspicion today. Trussing up Caliex with that much rope wasn’t really required, but okay, fine. At least it's better than death. Caliex, come with me. You're going to stay in the basement until we can sort everything out. Why does this crew have so many problems? I’m beginning to see why Stink drank so much. Devotary was lynched and was a skaa! TJ Shade was killed and was a skaa! Vote count: Devotary (4): Straw, Eternum, Fifth, Striker Fifth (3): Mystic, Mint, Devotary Mint (2): Ashbringer, Vapor Straw (1): TJ Shade Player List
  6. Cycle is closed! More news to come when Orlok is online!
  7. Gabe Orielle watched through the windows into a filthy skaa thieving den, his hands shaking. The Steel Ministry had killed his father for being unable to deal with this thieving crew. Even though they were only a cadet branch of the Orielles, news of the death had spread all the way to Luthadel, where the rest of the Orielles were based. Gabe had been given a choice: fix his father’s mistakes or have the entire cadet branch disowned for its failures. The sheer number of skaa here was disgusting. Such rooting, dirty creatures. Gabe looked among them, hoping to pick out the Steel Ministry’s infiltrators, but none of them stood out to him. Each of them looked equally stupid, equally subhuman, equally likely to stab him without a second thought. He let out a quiet sob. How was he supposed to do this by himself? Then, miracle of miracles, a fight broke out. One of the skaa pointed at another, accusing them of keeping a low profile. More jumped on the accusation. Then a skaa accused someone else, backing it up with their fists. Yes! Maybe he could do this! Gabe downed a vial of zinc shavings and burned it, pulling on the emotions of all the skaa there. Anger, righteousness, fear. The small fight turned into a full brawl. Gabe snuck past the fighting skaa -- they weren’t his real goal. Nobody heard his footsteps. He went down a hallway, into another room, this one a touch less dirty than the other one. It had actual furniture here, a desk with an ornate chair and a bed with a large skaa snoring on it. He pulled a paper from his pocket and compared the face on it to the face of the skaa. Check. This was Stink, crewleader of the thieving crew that had plagued his father for so long. He could do this. With this, Gabe would restore glory to his branch of the Orielles. He would make up for his father’s failings. Gabe tiptoed to the bed, drew a dagger, and buried it in Stink’s chest. Stink jerked awake and threw his body forward onto Gabe’s. He reached his hands around Gabe’s neck and squeezed. “You’re not killing me so easily, ya Ministry punk!” Stink roared. Spots swam in Gabe’s vision. He pummeled at Stink with his fists, but the weight was too much. Even for a wounded man, Stink was strong. Another, feminine voice sounded in the distance. “Stink? Is everything okay?” Then, someone else entered the room. With desperate panic, Gabe flared the last of his zinc and yanked on everything he could get in this new person. Ambition. Calm. Cruelty. Opportunism. Then he yanked on Stink’s sense of despair. The woman picked up the chair and brought it down upon Stink’s head. Then, she brought it down upon Gabe’s. His vision went black, and he knew no more. Hey y’all, this is Rae again. I’m sorry to tell you this, but… Stink is dead. A Steel Ministry assassin killed him. I was there to comfort him in his last moments, and he said that he wanted me to run the crew. So here I am. Here’s my first order: stop fighting each other. From what I hear, a whole lot of people bludgeoned Lumin to death, and someone took advantage of the chaos to knife Vilt. Reading over there looks like he keeled over from sheer fright. We can’t keep doing this, people! From now on, if you’re suspicious of someone, send them to me and we’ll make a jail for them. Feather, Varen, Caliex, I’m nominating you to bury the bodies. The rest of you are going to scrub this room clean from all the bloodstains, you hear me? Go on, get to it. Remember, if you’re suspicious of anyone, jail them, don’t kill them. Vote count: Mist: 5 (Ashbringer, Straw, TJ Shade, Eternum, Fifth Scholar) Frozen Mint: 4 (Vapor, Mist, MysticLotus, StrikerEZ Fifth Scholar: 3 (Frozen Mint, Devotary of Spontaneity, Lahilt) Lahilt is killed, and is a Skaa, Mist is a Skaa, and Shard of Reading dies of inactivity, and is also a Skaa Player list:
  8. Pyro as a placeholder vote for now. I think that we should look more for Bleeder than the eliminators now. The eliminator team has been wrecked for how early it is, with two dead and one known. On the other hand, Bleeder knows who one of the two people they need to kill is. If Bleeder wins, everybody else loses. I'd like to avoid that. Off the top of my head, I think the way for us to find a serial killer is to look for people who are very concerned with their own self-preservation but not much about anyone else's. Unlike the eliminators, Bleeder does not have a team to keep alive in order to win. I expect that Bleeder will probably seem uncaring about the level of Constable or Criminal death. I'm conflicted about Elkanah. On one hand, even if Bleeder had about manipulation, they gain less from using it then from using their kill or skin. However, Elkanah specifically said that he wanted to use his vote manipulation to kill multiple people with the tie, which is significantly more efficient than using a kill action that will kill only one person. Still, nobody has counterclaimed him yet, so I think he is telling the truth at least about the vote manipulation. I'm pretty sure that Elkanah is not a Constable. I don't think the Constables would have gained very much from sitting up Elkanah as the fall guy if Elkanah was one of them.
  9. Pyro, Straw.
  10. Okay, just to clarify, because this might be hard to pick up on without prior experience: Straw and Pyro are trolling. They have given up on convincing people that they are village and are now trying to confuse everybody instead. Don't take anything they say at face value. It's generally considered acceptable to do this -- encouraged, even -- as long as it doesn't cross the line into griefing.
  11. Venquillotrists are a thing
  12. Okay, Straw's pretty much given up on convincing people he's village and is trolling now. I had such high hopes I really wanted to see a talkative, analytical Straw. @Orlok Tsubodai, whose scenario permutations are you calling useless? At the time I made it, Pyro and Striker were voting on Karnage and I thought everyone else might follow!
  13. We have hours and hours left. Honestly, that post was more arguing that there's no need to vote on Karnage today than it is arguing that we should vote on Straw.
  14. Okay. Let's look through all the possible scenarios for Karnage and Straw’s alignment. 1. Karnage is Flogs, and Straw is a Constable. Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they are Flogs. Once they get verification of that, Bleeder will attempt to kill Karnage. To win, Bleeder only needs to kill two people, Flogs and Winsting, which means that Bleeder can afford to spam kills against Flogs until one breaks through. I don't think that Karnage will be able to successfully coordinate bodyguard protects long enough to stay alive the whole game. For one thing, Karnage assumes that there are at least two bodyguards in the game. This is a Joe game. Nothing is guaranteed. Secondly, Karnage assumes that at least two bodyguards will be willing to protect him. If, like he assumes, there is one Constable bodyguard and one Criminal bodyguard, I'm not sure that the Constable bodyguard would bother. In this scenario, Karnage just outed Straw. That probably burned through any goodwill the Constables might have towards them. The Constables have every reason to expect that Karnage will continue trying to lynch them. What's more, even assuming that there are at least two bodyguards in the game, and assuming that they are willing to protect Karnage, I don't see this arrangement working out for long. What if the bodyguards don't want to use their 1 PM solely to check in on Karnage? What if a bodyguard finds some other villager who they also think is likely to die? What if a bodyguard goes inactive and forgets to submit a protective order? For all of those reasons, I assume that Karnage is not going to live very long. Bleeder has every incentive to keep attacking them until they are dead. If we assume that Karnage is Flogs, I don't think it's worth lynching them to verify, because of this likely death. We will know their alignment once Bleeder kills them. I expect it’ll take three cycles, max. If they’re miraculously still alive by then, we can re-evaluate the situation. 2. Karnage is a Criminal, and Straw is a Constable. In this case Karnage would’ve guessed and is trying to play Flogs to absorb a Bleeder kill. Very unlikely. 3. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Criminal. Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die. (The only way for the Constable team to fake a result like this would be for them to spend multiple night kills on Karnage, while also protecting them, which means they spend a lot of resources to gain very little.) There are several ways to see this scenario is likely. If Bleeder does not attack Karnage, then we lynch Karnage. if Straw’s alignment is found to be village, either through an alignment scan or lynch, then we lynch Karnage. If Bleeder attacks Karnage and Karnage dies, then obviously we will know Karnage’s alignment. We can do all of that without having to lynch Karnage this cycle. If this scenario turns out to be true, we probably can learn things about the Constable team. There are certain players who I cannot see agreeing to this plan, which means that we can rule them out if they have similar times of online activity as Karnage. 4. Karnage is a Constable, and Straw is a Constable. Bleeder can scan Karnage to see if they’re Flogs, and they will see that no, Karnage is a Constable. Once they find that out, Bleeder has no reason to try to kill Karnage. In fact, Bleeder loses if the party disperses too early, so Bleeder benefits by keeping a Constable Karnage around. Alternatively, Bleeder attacks Karnage without checking. I still don't think the double bodyguard plan will work out, so I still expect Karnage to die. In this case, the Constable team would basically be trading Straw’s life for Karnage. I'm not sure why they would do that, because we can still use the methods outlined in scenario 3 to get an idea of Karnage's alignment, and then the Constable team would have basically traded in two lives for nothing. I really don't think this is likely. 5. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Constable. Bleeder is automatically protected against kills as if they had a bodyguard. It's possible this means that Karnage would be able to attack themselves and survive, and get a writeup saying that they were attacked and survived. I could even see Joe giving the single serial killer role an extra life just to make sure that they don't die early in a scenario like what just happened here. Again, this is a Joe game, so role distributions are likely to be trolly, but it's not impossible. This scenario is actually the hardest to disprove. If we lynch Straw, and find that he is a Constable, that would mean this is scenario 1 or 5. One way to disprove a situation like this would be if we found every single bodyguard in the game, and they said that none of them were protecting Karnage on a cycle that they were attacked. This would be really hard to do, for obvious reasons. Another way would be for Flogs to counterclaim, but in that case Karnage would kill the counterclaimer and be halfway to completing their wincon. We’d probably lynch Karnage the next turn, but that’s closer than I’d like for things to get. Out of all the scenarios that have been outlined, this is the only one that can't be immediately disproven or doesn't have negative effects for Karnage. If we assume that Karnage is a rational actor, then this becomes much more likely. 6. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is a Criminal. If Straw flips Criminal when Karnage claimed that he's a Constable, then the next obvious lynch target is Karnage. This scenario is really, really unlikely. 7. Karnage is Bleeder, and Straw is Flogs. Well, why try to get Straw lynched then if Straw is immune to the lynch? Near impossible.
  15. Pyro. Chances are that Karnage is going to get a Bleeder kill aimed their way after this claim and will die soon anyways. A villager has pretty much no reason to falsely claim that they scanned someone as an eliminator, so the easiest way to verify this is to lynch Straw. The fact that you don't want to makes me think that you might be on Straw's team. Honestly, I'll probably move my vote onto Straw later today, but I'd like to milk just a little bit more discussion out of this cycle. Please? Pile-ons tell us nothing until we get lynch results back.