TheMightyLopen

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587 Dakhor Monk

About TheMightyLopen

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    Paranoid
  • Birthday 07/09/1996

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    Texas
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    Brandon Sanderson books.
    Dallas Cowboys.
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    Sanderson Elimination.
    Breath of the Wild. :D

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  1. Ok, I've gone back and looked through a couple players to try and get some more variety in terms of who we're focusing on, so here it is: Mark - He's only posted once, but looking back over it, I can't really decide either way whether I'm suspicious of him or not. He mostly just talks about mechanics(understandable, it being C1 when he posted), and guessing distribution, which I don't think gives us much. Ventyl - One post which was just naming their character. They are playing another SE game right now I think, so that could definitely account for some of their lack of activity here. But we need you too! @Ventyl, any thoughts on the game so far? Shane - Has only posted once to say he was busy. @shanerockes Anything is useful at this point, so don't feel like you have to reread everything and form opinions about everyone. If you could just post any thoughts you've had or initial reactions to posts or ideas, it could help us get a feel for what you're thinking. Ax's Boyfriend - Has only posted twice, and neither really had any game discussion. He has been active elsewhere on the shard, so I kinda feel wary that he may just be lurking. @Ax's Boyfriend, any thoughts on the game? Opinions on Stick or Drake? @xinoehp512 - Hasn't posted yet sadly. Hopefully they didn't forget about us...? I don't think I want to lynch Aman(inactive), Xino(inactive), Ventyl(inactive), Mark(eh, I trust he'll become more active without a lot of prodding), BR(kinda village read), Burnt(biased reasons), Drake(village read), Striker(village read), or myself(self-preservation). Which just leaves Shane, Ax, Alvron, Araris, Devotary, Lumgol, or Stick. I don't have solid reads on these players and feel some of them may be lurking. I put Stick on there mostly because I'm leaning village on Drake and Striker, but honestly it doesn't feel right to me. Feels like more would be going on if we have an eliminator up for the lynch right now. Of course, there's still some time left, so it could be that a lot happens between now and the end of the Cycle, similar to last Cycle, but even so, I'm not particularly suspicious of Stick myself. I'll switch my vote over from Ventyl(because they're playing 2 games at once) to Ax's Boyfriend. Probably my last post of the Cycle. Going to sleep soon, so, good luck everyone! I'm sure you'll completely change all of your votes and I will have no impact on anything!
  2. Ok, well, I've gone through basically the entire game(focusing mostly on what happened between my last post of C1 and now), and tbh, I don't have a lot in terms of suspicions. Here's a breakdown of my thoughts at the moment: 1. Xino - Hasn't posted yet? 2. Lumgol - Hasn't posted anything besides hello to begin the game I think? 3. Striker - Village read. 2nd vote on Aman C1 would be a risky thing to do as an elim I think, and besides that, he seems open with his thoughts. As if he's just posting whatever he's currently thinking rather than planning his posts to look a certain way. 4. BR - I wonder if she'd be bold enough to lay out her plans C1 if she was an elim...probably. She mentioned sabotaging the brig and that she thought the elims had an engineer(seemed pretty confident they would). Honestly reading her slightly village, but don't hold me to that... 5. Ventyl - Don't remember much about them. I think they've only posted once early on? 6. Aman - completely inactive 7. Ax's Boyfriend - Hasn't really done much from what I can remember. 8. Drake - Has basically been the driving force of discussion. I'm wary of him, but leaning village right now. Seems bolder than an elim would be maybe? 9. Devotary - I have trouble reading him, so I'll give him a couple Cycles before I try to lynch him haha. 10. Mark - I need to go back and look at Mark actually, because I remember being slightly suspicious of him for some reason. 11. Shane - No read. 12. Stick - Village read, but if memory serves I've not been able to read her very well in the past, so could be wrong about that. Reading her village because she sounds relaxed in her posts. 13. Alvron - Refer to text for Devotary. 14. Araris - Refer to text for Alvron. 15. Burnt - Not sure why, but I'm mildly suspicious of Burnt. I'm against lynching her right now though, cause it's just gut and I haven't played with her in a long time. 16. Lopen - I like to put myself on these lists so the player count is correct. Also, I believe Drake's claim of getting an Aviar, so I'm marking him off my list of who could have sent in the sabotage orders. Which means I've eliminated Drake, Striker, Aman, and myself(I guess I'm fine with telling you all that I didn't send in a sabotage order) from the list. Only 12 people to look at! I'll drop a vote on Ventyl for now, because I think we need more people to speak up. Ventyl, any thoughts on the game? Considering Drake has been posting a lot, do you have an opinion on him? Personally I like to hear players opinions about those driving discussion because of how much influence they can have on who is getting focused on/ignored. Edit: Vote tally Stick(2): Drake, Striker Burnt(1): Araris Ventyl(1): Lopen
  3. Yeah...I was meaning to do a post tonight, but at this point I'm too tired to try and make a meaningful post, let alone vote. I will do my best to be more involved tomorrow, but for now, I'm going to sleep. Oh, one thing was that I did like Drake's attempt to narrow down who could have sent in the elim orders last Cycle. I'm not sure I agree with his results of who was active or not, but I like that line of thought. It might not be a very small pool of players to look at, but if we know there's at least 2 elims in it, well it's at least a start.
  4. Well, that almost certainly means the Saboteurs have an engineer. Which means we've got 4 more Cycles minimum. I'm gonna assume we've got some village engineers though, so hopefully they'll be able to repair a few parts and give us a couple more Cycles than that. Nothing much to say about the lynch at the moment. Nothing stood out to me in particular, but I've only glanced over things, so I'll do another post later once I've got time.
  5. Well...I don't see any good lynch targets. I'd prefer we had a lynch, but there has been very little discussion so far, so I've got zero suspicions. I'll leave my vote on Lumgol I suppose, since I don't want Aman lynched C1, and also the more players that are tied the higher the chance we've got an elim in there, which means they'll have to take some action to protect themselves. I'm going to bed soon, so unless something happens in the next 30 minutes, this'll be my last post.
  6. I mean, it just seems too risky to me, at least early on. I guess you have a point that we can't automatically assume an engineer is evil just because they sabotage something, but like Devotary said, it would require a village engineer to be very confident they'd hit an elim with it to try it, so I'd expect a solid explanation if that happened. Another point why I wouldn't advise it is that we won't get the alignment of those hospitalized, so it's not really a great informational tool. Once we get close to the end of the game though, I'd absolutely be fine with a village engineer going after someone they think is evil(assuming there's enough airship parts still working where it won't make a difference). It mostly doesn't matter anymore, since Rand said we won't be able to tell between the faction ability or an engineer sabotage. I was just thinking that if an engineer was hospitalized and there was evidence that the elims had an engineer, we could have more confidence that that player was an elim and use that information to adjust our reads.
  7. Whoo, Burnt's playing! This should be fun! Anyways, I've only got a couple thoughts right now. To echo Burnt, @Randuir, will the write-ups explain how someone was hospitalized? Also, will it be clear whether an area gets sabotaged by the elim team power or by an engineer power? Obviously I don't think any village engineers are gonna be sabotaging our amazing airship, but it could be helpful to know if the elim team has an engineer or not. One last question: Is there a vote minimum for the lynch and what happens in the case of a tie? (ok that's two questions but I always ask them together so whatever) I do think we should try to get some lynch discussion going. I'll slap a vote down on Lumgol for their controversial post where they said hello and that they were alive which seems pretty suspicious. Actually, I'd just like to hear if you've got any thoughts on mechanics or anything really. Just something to give us an idea of what you're thinking about the game right now.
  8. I'll join! I need to check, but I might actually have a living character from another Sixth of the dusk game I could bring back.
  9. Well played Lum and converts! I was totally wrong about you Lum. The Day I was lynched I had it narrowed down to you or Levitaph, and I was like, 95% sure it was Levitaph. Fura, you had me waffling on whether you were really a convert with that PM, but at that point it just made too much sense to me that you'd have been converted. However, if Lum had been lynched, I may have started to reconsider since you had gone after her quite a bit at that point. All in all, I had a lot of fun trying to narrow down targets for Sja-Anat and who they might have converted(I was right about that at least), and even though I didn't create anything cool with them, I thought the Essences were interesting! I also got my item stolen and was lynched the Turn I got Bonded, so that was kinda sad...but it was a fun game! Thanks Steel and Maill for running it!
  10. Well dang, I guess I'll move my vote to Lumgol then. I'd really prefer if you guys would decide where to put your votes earlier in the Cycle, since I really don't have time to make a substantial post, so Lumgol(red) Levitaph(green). I'm on mobile so could you GMs maybe just accept that I can't remember the coding and just imagine the names are colored in? @Steeldancer
  11. I did create Liquid Metal C1, yes. I actually used Fire and Plant to make a Large Fire. At this point, yeah, I'm not sure we can win if we mislynch again. Which makes an information lynch a really bad idea. As for Lum, I do think the only way she's evil is if she's Sja-Anat, but I just don't think she is. That leaves me with pretty much Levitaph I think. If this were the board game Clue, here is my official guess! Levitaph - Sja-Anat Fura - Convert Devotary - Convert Sart - Village right now, but the elims aren't going after him in thread because they want to convert him this upcoming Night Turn. They want to use a suicide conversion alongside their kill(s) to hammer next Cycle. I say kill(s) because it's possible they have an Ashspren. As such, Sart, if you are village, I think lynching Levitaph this Turn is our best shot at winning, so you can't get converted and the village keeps your vote manipulation. I will help lynch Fura if you're not comfortable with lynching Levitaph, but for now I'm voting Levitaph. Here's some more explanation as to why I think this is the elim team. First of all, Devotary and Fura were trusted by Fifth because they claimed provable roles early on. I think this rules them out for being Sja-Anat. Sart and Snipexe have all but proven their roles. Xino and Shqueeves have been too inactive to be Sja-Anat(in my opinion). Rath is the Stormfather. Ark claimed Stonespren and Burning Snipexe. Lying about your role in thread on D3 is too risky for Sja-Anat I think, because there's a role scanner ability probably out there somewhere. I know I'm not Sja-Anat, and similarly, I claimed to Fifth on D1. That leaves Lumgol, Dr Dapper, and Levitaph. Lumgol and Dr Dapper have both felt to me that they have nothing to lose with their posts. Lumgol has also been under constant suspicion, and is now being voted on by my top suspects. Dr Dapper's posts just seem way too carefree and flippant, and they also apparently have claimed to Rath this Cycle? Rath, an update on that would be nice. Anyways, that leaves Levitaph. A new player who has, in my opinion, seemed fairly competent but hasn't been under much attention at all. They didn't want to claim to Fifth, which isn't condemning evidence by itself, but at this point, with almost everyone else having some transparency with their abilities, definitely draws my attention. I can't say Levitaph has done anything blatantly suspicious, but by process of elimination, he's my best guess. One more thing to add that is that I think Fura and Devotary have largely ignored Levitaph, and similarly Levitaph hasn't really had any interactions with them either. Something I noticed going back through levitaph's posts is that they mentioned suspicion of Devotary at one point but haven't brought it up again since then. Vote tally: Lumgol(3): Ark, Fura, Levitaph Fura(1): Sart Levitaph(1): Lopen
  12. Vote tally: Lumgol(3): Fura, Ark, Levitaph Well Lumgol, looks like it's been decided. Fura, 5 elims out of 17 players in a conversion game with the potential for a suicide/conversion would be insanely broken. I'm hoping there's only 3 elims and Sja-Anat is at her last life honestly, but I wouldn't bet on that. My guess is either 2 elims + 2 life Sja-Anat or 3 elims + last life Sja-Anat. Remaining players: 1. Fura - Village leader sorta. My highest suspect for convert at this point. I can't really point to one thing that makes me think he's been converted, but I feel like it makes too much sense for him not to be converted. 2. Lumgol - Village punching bag. Ok, so I kinda get the suspicion for Lumgol, as I do think they've been kind of erratic, but I certainly don't think they're a convert. Lumgol, if you could claim and prove your role in some way, I think that would help a lot in clearing up your alignment. One reason I don't really like the Lumgol lynch is because most players are suspicious of them to some degree, and it stands to reason that some of those players are elims at this point. Could be a bus, but it seems unnecessarily early for a bus. I feel like bussing usually happens when a teammate is too far gone to be saved, not at the beginning of a Day. 3. Xino - Fairly inactive. Not a likely convert target, and I wouldn't say they're a likely Sja-Anat either. Wouldn't consider lynching. 4. Rath - Stormfather. Confirmed village up until this Turn. They could have been converted I suppose. I don't think it's wise to tell them all of our roles, although funny enough it kinda makes me think they weren't converted as suggesting that might bring a lot of attention to them. 5. Snipexe - Cryptic, basically confirmed. I don't really see the point in converting Snipexe honestly, so I think they're village. 6. Ark - Stonespren. Burned Snipexe. Constantly confuses me because I can't figure out if I suspect them or not. Leaning village a bit right now, but I'm very unsure. Oh yeah, I Burned you. Sorry about that actually. I sent in the action after posting that theory, but I forgot about it when I woke up and decided my theory was a little too over the top. 7. Devotary - Urrrrk, idk. Potentially converted, simply because most players view them as village, and they're a good player. 8. Levitaph - A potential Sja-Anat I think. Active enough, but not a huge contributor. I read them as village initially, but they are new, so that's probably a garbage read. I really don't know much about them. 9. Shqueeves - Slightly inactive. I'm hoping they'll start to get more involved this Turn. I don't really have an opinion on them, though again, I feel like a Sja-Anat!Shqueeves would have been a little more active. 10. Lopen - Still village 11. Dr Dapper - Another potential Sja-Anat. Hasn't done a whole lot. Posts fairly frequently, but they're usually very short posts with not much in them. I didn't feel like Sja-Anat would be as casual in their posting as Dapper has been, but I could be wrong. At this point, the search is narrowing down enough that I think I should include them in the list of potential Sja-Anat's. 12. Sart - Inkspren, basically confirmed. Like I've mentioned before, a prime suspect for conversion. It wouldn't surprise me if he was just converted, but I don't think he was converted before that. I was feeling a village vibe from him at least. Fura, I'm not sure I see what information could be gained about the elims by a lynch on a village Lum. Most of the info we would get looks like it's mostly about whether Rath is an elim or not, and we've already established he was not evil last Cycle, so him and Lum aren't connected at all. Also, Ark confirmed eliminator. Jokes aside, I think i would be comfortable lynching any of Fura, Sart, Devotary, or Levitaph(probably my top suspect for Sja-Anat at the moment, mostly just because no one else really makes sense to me). Not sure who I'd most prefer to lynch though. I need to do some more analyzing and info digging.
  13. Haha, harsh, but probably fair. I have a habit of coming up with these sorts of theories. Your reaction, and the fact that these types of theories aren't ever right, make me inclined to go back to my original thought that your reveal means you're more likely village. To be clear though, I'm still wary of Fura.
  14. Well darn. I guess that explains why Rath didn't want to roleswap with Fifth. Sorry about that Rath. What makes me really uncomfortable about that lynch is that basically all of the high profile players voted as a group, as me, Fifth, Devotary, and Sart are decent conversion targets in my opinion. I point this out because I feel like there has to be a convert in there somewhere. As I'm actually still reading Sart as village, I'm looking at Devotary and Fifth right now. This may sound a little conspiracy theory-ish, but my current thought is that Fura is the convert and that Ark is also an elim. I was looking back at the past Day, and Fura and Ark rarely seem to have any sort of back and forth. For one, Fura never says anything about Ark's reveal that he burned Snipexe even though earlier he'd mentioned he was suspicious of whoever had burned Snip. Then, Ark votes on me following Sart's vote, and Fura heavily defends me. Ark never really responds to either my posts or Fura's, seemingly content to just sit on his vote of me, with no further response. Fura only mentions that at least Ark's vote on me had some reasoning behind it rather than Sart's, which is a defense of Ark in a way(if I was lynched, I think Sart would have taken the larger portion of blame for it, and this defense might help Ark's case a bit). Now, Ark is suggesting going after Lumgol instead of me, his previous target, with no explanation. I believe this may be because Fura started casting suspicion on Lumgol at the end of last Turn, and Ark is sort of following Fura's lead. Oh right, which brings me back to Ark's reveal that he Burned Snip. I've been thinking about that and have a nagging feeling it was planned to draw attention away from Ark. I think that the elims may have felt Ark had too much pressure on him, and suggested he reveal he'd Burned Snip as a solution. If so, it worked, as both me and Devotary both stated we felt it was a village move. I think the reason Fura didn't mention it was because he wanted to see the village's reaction to the reveal first so he could decide whether to go after Ark for that or not. Another reason I'm wary of Fura is for his strong defense of me. While I appreciate it, I can't help but feel like he's trying to get on my good side. I don't think his opinion is really feigned, as my current theory is that he was converted, so I think he did read my first post as strongly village when he was village, but I think he's playing that read up to gain my trust. Anyways, I know that's kind of a lot and not very well put together, but it's very late and I think it gets my point across good enough. With that, I'm off for the night.