Orlok Tsubodai

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Orlok Tsubodai last won the day on June 27 2020

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About Orlok Tsubodai

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  • Birthday 10/31/1997

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  1. Hi all. Has been a busy and torrid few days. I'll be more likely to be around tomorrow, but if Straw has a pinch hitter lined up, please do replace me.
  2. As always, I shall play as Locke Tekiel.
  3. It’s 5am, and I should be asleep, but on the early game “townslip”, which I agree is noteworthy @Illwei, I see two possibilities. The first, and likeliest I think is that it is genuine - certainly that was my initial read of it, from which I’ve village read James so far this game. That said, knowing him @Breaker, how likely do you think James is to make such a play given their off-site experience? Gut tells me not so likely - if he was going for such a move, my feeling is that he would also try to underplay his experience.
  4. Back to the grindstone now, albeit tired and slightly tipsy whilst I work. What makes you think I might be yellow Ajah? Analysis from the first eight pages: Analysis of the following four pages: 202 C1 202 Liranil Asks for vote count. Says Breaker and Gears claiming each other as Aes Sedai and Warder. Suspects they areas they claim due to coordination. Thinks James village. Gut suspicious of Condensation. Clearly reads RP posts. Agree re James. Known villager 203 C1 203 TJ Shade Vote count (shows Dannex clearly in the lead) GM Evil 204 C1 204 The Unknown Order Has caught up with thread. Doesn't have reads. Has a PM. Not much to look at NAI 205 C1 205 Breaker Votes on James "for science" Use postscrapers to find whitetext, gents. Clear prior relationship wih James - suspect vote not serious NAI James Brafin 206 C1 206 James Brafin Is exasperated More evidence of their knowing each other NAI 207 C1 207 Breaker More white text NAI NAI 208 C1 208 James Brafin Emote NAI NAI 209 C1 209 Burnt Spaghetti Comments casually on James/Breaker interaction NAI NAI 210 C1 210 Breaker Continues interaction NAI NAI 211 C1 211 James Brafin Posts gif NAI NAI 212 C1 212 Illwei Says Breaker was village in MR due to being "all over the place" - playstyle changed this game. Thinks Dannex being aggressive is a town tell for them. Thinks Condensation's behaviour NAI. Village reads for Dannex, Reading, James, lean for Matrim. Elim leans for Liranil, Order, and TJ confirmed elim. Votes on Liranil for sheeping consensus reads. Thinks differs from first game playstyle. Order feels like newer elim. Striker a gut read as posts confused Good to know more re Dannex's historical playstyle. Agree wholeheartedly wrt read on TJ. Liranil now confirmed village. Striker confirmed evil. Mild village Liranil 213 C1 213 Burnt Spaghetti Casual conversation NAI NAI 214 C1 214 TJ Shade Comments on Illwei calling them out as an elim Openwolfing Evil 215 C1 215 Burnt Spaghetti Provides solid logic for TJ being evil NAI NAI 216 C1 216 Breaker Agrees with Burnt NAI NAI 217 C1 217 Illwei Also agrees with Burnt NAI NAI 218 C1 218 Matrim's Dice Disagrees with Illwei's elim reads on Order and Striker, but agrees on Liranil Liranil confirmed village, Striker confirmed evil Mild/moderate evil 219 C1 219 Condensation Says people sus of her because she voted, which is atypical. Says she has been close to being lynched for not voting, hence behaviour change. Feels genuine, sensible reason for changing playstyle NAI 220 C1 220 Liranil Says did vote earlier, on Gears. More suspicious of Dannex than others with votes. Retracts from Gears, votes on Dannex. Fair explanation. Known villager Dannex Gears 221 C1 221 Gears Highlights reel of thread. Consensus that there is a single village vig. Matrim sus of Dannex based on their views on Illwei, which Dannex should be familiar with. Reading sus of Dannex based on gut. Condensation joins vote without reasoning. James sus of Dannex based on tone. Says James tunneling, this site very casual. Matrim suspicious of Condensation for jumping on Dannex lynch. Reminds players that Breaker is Blue Ajah. Summary only. SE definitely much more casual than it used to be. Don't have the time or energy to work out their gambit with regards to Ajah Unsure 222 C1 222 Burnt Spaghetti Jokes NAI NAI 223 C1 223 Illwei Thinks killing Dannex a mistake Consistent with earlier posts NAI 224 C1 224 Breaker Makes joke re Matrim in WoT game NAI NAI 225 C1 225 James Brafin Commends Illwei's logic Which part of it? Sarcastic? Unclear 226 C1 226 Illwei Suggests James mocking them Possibly true? NAI 227 C1 227 Breaker Comments on number of pages reached Trust me, it doesn't feel like something to be celebrated NAI 228 C1 228 James Brafin Says wasn't mocking Illwei So what was the great point? NAI 229 C1 229 Illwei Asks for clarification from James I'd also like to seee clarification on this NAI 230 C1 230 Breaker Suggests James is confused NAI NAI 231 C1 231 Flyingbooks42 Asks for a summary of the cycle Nothing to analyse Known villager 232 C1 232 Burnt Spaghetti Summarises the cycle as chaos Pretty accurate NAI 233 C1 233 Breaker Votes on Flyingbooks Not a serious vote NAI Flyingbooks 234 C1 234 Flyingbooks42 Asks why Breaker is voting on them If new player a fair question Known villager 235 C1 235 Burnt Spaghetti Votes on Breaker for voting on Flyingbooks Fair enough, not AI NAI Breaker 236 C1 236 Breaker Retracts from Flyingbooks, says vote was because it was funny Not a serious player NAI Flyingbooks 237 C1 237 Burnt Spaghetti Retracts from Breaker NAI NAI Breaker 238 C1 238 Illwei Expresses sadness at having caused confusion NAI NAI 239 C1 239 Breaker Casual conversation NAI NAI 240 C1 240 James Brafin Suggests Gear's argument for being sus of Condensation not strong Valid NAI 241 C1 241 Burnt Spaghetti Casual conversation with Breaker NAI NAI 242 C1 242 James Brafin Says being confused is accurate NAI NAI 243 C1 243 Illwei Expresses further sadness at having caused confusion NAI NAI 244 C1 244 Breaker Says James is about to lie Probably close relations NAI 245 C1 245 James Brafin Expresses sadness at having caused sadness NAI NAI 246 C1 246 StrikerEZ Finding themselves confused. Cycle has been chaotic. Quite. Known elim 247 C1 247 Burnt Spaghetti Discontent at Illwei for upsetting James Silliness NAI 248 C1 248 Flyingbooks42 Comments on Breaker/James posts NAI NAI 249 C1 249 Illwei Blames silliness on Burnt Not sure that's quite true NAI 250 C1 250 Burnt Spaghetti Says it isn't her, for once Probably true NAI 251 C1 251 Breaker Says they are "wounding" James NAI NAI 252 C1 252 Illwei Suggests all chaos is due to Burnt Tbh not an unreasonable hypothesis NAI 253 C1 253 Matrim's Dice Retracts on Condensation, votes on Liranil. Will give reasoning in the morning. Needs explanation. Unclear thus far Liranil Condensation 254 C1 254 Breaker Suggests Illwei shall receive a noble laureate for their hypothesis re Burnt I wouldn't be quite that generous NAI 255 C1 255 James Brafin Calls out the fact that we've had 25 posts of fluff It is indeed a little frustrating NAI 256 C1 256 Breaker Votes on Liranil, for "anarchy" Consistent with behaviour thus far, not helpful to the village Mild evil Liranil 257 C1 257 Burnt Spaghetti Refuses to take responsibility for chaos NAI NAI 258 C1 258 Illwei Suggests that they put fluff in PMs not thread whern PMs exist NAI NAI 259 C1 259 Flyingbooks42 Adds to Illwei's Burnt hypothesis NAI NAI 260 C1 260 Breaker Casual conversation NAI NAI 261 C1 261 Flyingbooks42 Says no PMs helps them engage in the game Glad you're able to engage Known villager 262 C1 262 Burnt Spaghetti Suggests James should breathe as not coping well with the fluff. Good advice. I'll try it too. NAI 263 C1 263 James Brafin Jokes NAI NAI 264 C1 264 Breaker Jokes NAI NAI 265 C1 265 Illwei Says they used to be shy but advises Flyingbooks just to start conversations People here really are normally quite nice NAI 266 C1 266 Flyingbooks42 Votes and unvotes on James as a joke NAI NAI James James 267 C1 267 Illwei Jokes NAI NAI 268 C1 268 Burnt Spaghetti Jokes NAI NAI 269 C1 269 Breaker Jokes NAI NAI 270 C1 270 Liranil Asks people to give actual arguments for voting on them I quite agree. Known villager 271 C1 271 TJ Shade This is fine I feel your pain, TJ Evil 272 C1 272 Ashbringer States players are all insane Accurate NAI 273 C1 273 Breaker Asks if Ashbringer wishes to be his friend NAI NAI 274 C1 274 Burnt Spaghetti Largely nonsense NAI NAI 275 C1 275 Illwei Says we need to reassess Liranil lynch Doesn't do much of this themselves Mild evil 276 C1 276 Breaker Nonsense NAI NAI 277 C1 277 Illwei Nonsense NAI NAI 278 C1 278 Breaker Nonsense NAI NAI 279 C1 279 Burnt Spaghetti Sad face NAI NAI 280 C1 280 James Brafin Nonsense NAI NAI 281 C1 281 Liranil American patriotic nonsense Upstart colonials NAI 282 C1 282 Breaker Retracts Liranil I look forward to getting to where Breaker starts making sense to me NAI Liranil 283 C1 283 Illwei Anti-Australian nonsense Don't bash my favourite prison NAI 284 C1 284 Breaker Nonsense NAI NAI 285 C1 285 Liranil More anti-Australian nonsense NAI NAI 286 C1 286 Burnt Spaghetti Nonsense NAI NAI 287 C1 287 Illwei Says James made townslip with first post Agree, unless James expert eliminator Mild village 288 C1 288 Breaker Says James' "townslip" ooc given familiarity with mafia Actually a decent point Mild village 289 C1 289 The Unknown Order Elim read James and Dannex, village read Quinn Very odd set of reads. Query why. Mild evil 290 C1 290 Breaker Says messing with James (and says they are oog friends) Makes sense NAI 291 C1 291 The Unknown Order James only elim read Rationale being? Mild evil 292 C1 292 Illwei Questions Unknown Order's elim read of James For good reason Mild village 293 C1 293 The Unknown Order Says James said something sus Which was? Unsure 294 C1 294 Breaker Asks Illwei who they would like to lynch I give up on trying to read Breaker NAI 295 C1 295 Ashbringer Votes on Dannex Sensible at this stage Known villager 296 C1 296 Dannex Asks for votecount, says they'll roleclaim if need be Roles RNG this game - not sure roles actually clear anyoen C1 NAI 297 C1 297 TJ Shade Gives votecount GM Never trust a GM 298 C1 298 Ashbringer Says Dannex more suspicious than Liranil, late in day Fair enough Known villager 299 C1 299 Illwei Not feeling Dannex lynch. Mld village read on Matrim, Ash, Reading, James, Dannex. Most suspicious of Liranil, Lotus, Flyingbooks, Striker Elims #2,3 in suspicion list. Distancing or genuine? Probably moderate village 300 C1 300 Dannex Votes Liranil out of self-preservation. Suggests they should be left alive due to role claim. Explains thread very active when first posted. Thinks vanilla knowledge important due to distribution. Says elims won't kill a vanilla. Apologises for aggressive tone of posts. Self pres vote makes sense if values role so highly. Disagree vehemently with meta that suggests we value roles over players. Also disagree with logic re vanilla players. GMs are, as a rule, trolls. Very very difficult to predict distro as a player accurately enough for the game. If vanillas, will be killed or lynched in time, and no urgency behind information. Feels like genuinely held belief, however, so whilst I disagree strongly with the argument, feel less like they are elim because of it Mild village Liranil 301 C1 301 Gears Suggests worth noting Ashbringer's vote as suspicious. Ashbringer known villager. No reasoning why. Mild evil. In short, I'm getting there, slowly. Planning to get up to the halfway point by the end of my day, and then fully up to speed tomorrow. As is clear in my analysis, I am struggling to read Breaker, but their post recently claiming gives me a bad feeling - the edits particularly, and the uncertainty read as "put on", not genuine.
  5. Next four pages (and a couple of lectures) done. 200 posts so far, 1200 to go... Content of my last 100 posts here: The new analysis as follows: 102 C1 102 Breaker Says they can't remember writing a poem I can't remember the poem either NAI 103 C1 103 Illwei Votes on Illwei Seems to be a joke NAI Matrim's Dice 104 C1 104 Gears Explains Illwei's joke re their PM Correct interpretation. NAI 105 C1 105 Breaker Thanks Gears NAI NAI 106 C1 106 TJ Shade Confirms Araris as IM Araris one of the Forsaken Live in fear of the Dark One 107 C1 107 Matrim's Dice Retracts Condensation, votes Illwei Reactionary, seems also lighthearted NAI Illwei Condensation 108 C1 108 Illwei Leans village on Matrim, as an elim would expect him to have actually pressured for Illwei's lynch Appreciate the meta clarification Mild village 109 C1 109 TJ Shade GM offline for 6 hours N/A N/A 110 C1 110 Matrim's Dice Retracts Illwei, votes Condensation. Reversion to pre-trolling votes. Don't agree with vote on Condensation NAI Condensation Illwei 111 C1 111 Quinn0928 Says deliberately misquoting Matrim to troll. Trolling an essential part of SE NAI 112 C1 112 Liranil Votes Gears for directing roles Not sure agree with vote, but not suspicious of it Known villager 113 C1 113 Illwei Says on a team with Matrim Trolling NAI 114 C1 114 James Brafin Says their off-site experience is on mafiascum, therefore build focused. Useful to know NAI 115 C1 115 Quinn0928 Says we are less organised than Mafiascum NAI NAI 116 C1 116 Matrim's Dice Also jokes about team with Illwei. Trolling NAI 117 C1 117 Quinn0928 Claims also elim Trolling Known elim 118 C1 118 James Brafin Queries Quinn thinking Green Ajah having two warders due to balance Sensible query - agree Very mild village 119 C1 119 Illwei Says they have also played some Mafiascum None NAI 120 C1 120 James Brafin Games on Mafiascum take months, hostile to new players A great shame NAI 121 C1 121 Quinn0928 Says an elim Green Ajah would neutralise vig due to elim info and control. Would be too unbalanced I think - potential to completely upened game Known elim 122 C1 122 Matrim's Dice Says think Ajah/Warder RNG NAI NAI 123 C1 123 James Brafin Agrees that Black Ajah Green Ajah warder possible but unlikely Sensible assessment. Genuine conversation with Quinn? Like that they picked out point in older post of theirs. Mild village 124 C1 124 Quinn0928 Suggests late game elim warder play could work Unlikely Known elim 125 C1 125 James Brafin Doesn't agree with Quinn NAI NAI 126 C1 126 Dannex Thinks Elim!Quinn could troll about being an elim Useful Mild village 127 C1 127 Illwei Thinks Green Ajah elim warder too elim sided. Thinks speculating on setup impossible Agree re Green Ajah NAI 128 C1 128 James Brafin Misinterpreted post Reads genuine Strong village 129 C1 129 Condensation Clarifies that "condensation"ing someone is correcting their grammar NAI NAI 130 C1 130 Illwei Asks context of James Brafin's question re Condensation NAI NAI 131 C1 131 Condensation Irrelevant NAI NAI 132 C1 132 James Brafin Again clarifies misreading of term As above, reads very genuine Moderate village 133 C1 133 Matrim's Dice Can't browse Mafiascum NAI NAI 134 C1 134 Quinn0928 Jokes about Mat pocketing Condensation NAI NAI 135 C1 135 Matrim's Dice Jokes NAI NAI 136 C1 136 Condensation Jokes NAI NAI 137 C1 137 Matrim's Dice Continues joking NAI NAI 138 C1 138 Quinn0928 Casual conversation, contains whitetext You guys should all get threadscrapers that show posts in plaintext. They make spotting white text so much easier NAI 139 C1 139 Condensation More casual conversation NAI NAI 140 C1 140 Quinn0928 Reveals whitetext NAI NAI 141 C1 141 Condensation Complains about having to look for white text NAI NAI 142 C1 142 Quinn0928 Says they check every post for white text NAI NAI 143 C1 143 Illwei Says Mafiascum difficult to navigate. Notes nothing of value said in last ten posts At least it makes my life easier... NAI 144 C1 144 Matrim's Dice Suggests halting OOG conversation NAI NAI 145 C1 145 Condensation Says they don't check every post for white text NAI NAI 146 C1 146 Quinn0928 Jokes about posting every 5 seconds Their posting rate really is extreme NAI 147 C1 147 Condensation Says shard rules prohibit posting more than every 30 seconds Not with mod powers (Retired Staff still get a few privileges) NAI 148 C1 148 Quinn0928 Says they were exaggerating NAI NAI 149 C1 149 Condensation 45 seconds NAI NAI 150 C1 150 Illwei Notes that casual posting makes it harder for players to catch up on Very true NAI 151 C1 151 Quinn0928 Reveals which post contains the whitetext NAI NAI 152 C1 152 StrikerEZ Complains about difficulty catching up on the thread. Guesses 4 elims. Doesn't have a read on anyone I feel your pain. Known elim 153 C1 153 Ashbringer Guesses one elim ajah-warder pair. Questions what we do with partner of elim if found Is it not known that pairings are RNG? Known villager 154 C1 154 Quinn0928 Suggests we lynch partner of found elim Misdirecting village? Known elim 155 C1 155 Illwei Not a fan of lynching bonded partners on principle. Thinks best to look at how they have been acting. Agree wholeheartedly. Mild village 156 C1 156 James Brafin Strong town view on Quinn. Suspicious of Illwei. Dice NAI. Mild village on Ash and Condensation, moderate on Devotary. Very suspicious of Dannex, wants to vote but doesn't know this site's meta Quinn now proven village. Mistake or teammates? Difficult to tell, as reading Quinn's posts knowing their alignment. Agree re townreads - but easy to townread as an elim. Agree presently re sus of Dannex Unsure - revisit with more evidence 157 C1 157 Quinn0928 Says James can vote on Dannex within meta Less likely Dannex evil? Known elim 158 C1 158 James Brafin Votes on Dannex Consistent with prior post. I'd likely have done the same. Mild village Dannex 159 C1 159 Matrim's Dice Asks James for terminology clarifications NAI NAI 160 C1 160 James Brafin Explains terminology. Says taking notes. Complains about post numbers. Agree wholeheartedly re post numbers. Would genuinely bribe Eric and Josh a moderate amount of money for them if the site supported it NAI 161 C1 161 Illwei Strong village read on Dannex and Reading Would appreciate clarity on where village read on Dannex comes from Unsure 162 C1 162 James Brafin Pedantry I aprove wholeheartedly of pedantry NAI 163 C1 163 Illwei More pedantry Keep this coming NAI 164 C1 164 James Brafin Thinks Dannex definitely evil - responses deflective, unhelpful and evasive. Very sus of Lotus. Thinks Quinn village, leaning Illwei village. Dice village. Analysing posts one by one Marry me, James. Agree wholeheartedly re Dannex based on posts to this point, and doing post by post notes and analysis... Quinn read still odd, would like to see your full notes on Quinn prior to this post. Puts links to posts in his posts!!! Moderate village, saint 165 C1 165 James Brafin Jokes hard townread on Illwei for pedantry NAI NAI 166 C1 166 Breaker Asks for explanation of terms NAI NAI 167 C1 167 Quinn0928 Explains terms NAI NAI 168 C1 168 James Brafin Clarifies distinction between sheeping and bandwagoning NAI NAI 169 C1 169 Matrim's Dice Asks for the links to posts in James' posts If you ask me to link each post in my own I'm going to murder you. NAI 170 C1 170 James Brafin Added links Saint NAI 171 C1 171 Illwei Asks Quinn for views on Dannex as recently was on elim team with him Useful info Mild village 172 C1 172 Quinn0928 Doesn't want to give info on Dannex. Doesn't think he is acting in same way. Doesn't want him cleared for this. Lack of info unhelpful - link w/ distancing between them? Known elim 173 C1 173 James Brafin Says almost caught up with thread If only... NAI 174 C1 174 Dannex Doesn't know how they have come across as aggressive See my analysis above NAI 175 C1 175 James Brafin Nearly caught up I am very envious NAI 176 C1 176 James Brafin Suspicious of condensation, thinks Quinn may have set up knowledge. Thinks Striker's first post is weird. Reevaluating reads. Very strong village vibes from this. If elim, very well played. Moderate village 177 C1 177 Quinn0928 Asks whether James means they might have distro knowledge because they are an eliminator NAI NAI 178 C1 178 Gears RPs as Breaker's warder NAI NAI 179 C1 179 Breaker RPs as Gears' Aes Sedai NAI NAI 180 C1 180 James Brafin Megapost on Dannex. Notes first post high effort but low value. Second post blatant powerhunting. Notes third post doesn't explain what the town actually learn. Fourth deflective. Fifth very aggressive. Thinks Dannex misquoting Condensation. Thinks Dannex trying to stop bus of Illwei. Suggests last quoted post aggressive and dismissive Agree wholeheartedly with most of this. Have moderate village read on Illwei however, so disagree on conclusion of bussing Moderate village 181 C1 181 Ashbringer RP NAI Known villager 182 C1 182 Breaker Setting question NAI NAI 183 C1 183 James Brafin Post on Dannex/Condensation. Thinks soft distancing as posts are fluff and yet change Dannex's mind. Feels contrived. Personal reading of Condensations early change of playstyle was that it felt genuine - or that I was prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt Unsure 184 C1 184 Breaker Says Condensation's nickname is Connie Nicknames in general are awful NAI 185 C1 185 Illwei Asks that no one reply to James' post until Dannex and Condensation do Value in this being? Unsure 186 C1 186 Matrim's Dice Doubts Condensation bussing Dannex Knows Condensation, assume based on that NAI 187 C1 187 Breaker Jokes NAI NAI 188 C1 188 Condensation States gender. Explains behaviour. Says she didn't have much reason for Dannex vote. Says they haven't retracted Dannex vote. Feels gut genuine Mild village 189 C1 189 Illwei Says Breaker playing differently to previous game, asks Breaker if this is conscious Not sure anything of note here NAI 190 C1 190 Matrim's Dice Joke, I think? NAI NAI 191 C1 191 Ashbringer Good gut reads on Matrim, Quinn, James, bad gut on Shard and Devotary. Neutral on Dannex. Will look at thread before deciding view on Dannex. Doesn't explain votes beyond gut. Known villager 192 C1 192 James Brafin Very polite with regards to pronouns etc NAI NAI 193 C1 193 Burnt Spaghetti Is lost, suggests taking notes on read through Notes are, indeed, helpful NAI 194 C1 194 Matrim's Dice Suggests application of known strategy reads of less value on site where mafia played more casually. Actually a pretty good point NAI 195 C1 195 Breaker Says they are learning from reactions to James, says they didn't play reliably last game deliberately. Claims Blue Ajah. Claims no good reads due to being new. Mild sus re highlighting inexperience Mild evil 196 C1 196 Burnt Spaghetti Says Breaker a shade of Chaos NAI NAI 197 C1 197 Breaker On good terms with Burnt NAI NAI 198 C1 198 Dannex Replies to James' megapost. Answer is essentially that it his behaviour is to do with the meta. Still says existence of vanilla "more important than [we are] assuming", doesn't explain it. Thinks James tunneling. Not too satisfied with this answer. Gut read on it is that it is dismissive without engaging in points made. Mild evil 199 C1 199 James Brafin Chaos NAI NAI 200 C1 200 StrikerEZ Says they are lost. Thinks gist is that people are suspicious of Dannex. Defends Dannex's behaviouir as being because they might be a defensive player. Thinks James an aggressive player. Link between Striker and Dannex? Known elim 201 C1 201 Burnt Spaghetti Says she will take notes on Dannex and Condensation. Useful enough. I look forward to reaching these notes. NAI Clearly a lot yet to get through. I got quite a lot of pushback on my views on Dannex from my last post. Does anyone want to be kind and summarise why we now think he is a villager? @James Brafin I'd be particularly interested in your views given your early C1 megapost on him (#180 in my table).
  6. Just as an aside, I'm against any strategy that coerces players to act in a certain way, so on principle I don't like this suggestion that we force players to give up information.
  7. Ok, so I clearly haven't been able to catch up yet, but am getting there. With the GM's blessing to post my analysis in notes form, I give you the first four pages of D1: Posts by game Cycle Posts by turn Player Key content Thoughts on content Alignment Indicative Vote Retractions 1 C1 1 TJ Shade Writeup 2 C1 2 Matrim's Dice Asks if thoughts on distribution Doesn't give own opinions. Fairly safe conversation starter. Very mild evil 3 C1 3 Archer Respinds to Matrim. Poke vote on Striker (known elim). Sensible but NAI game analysis. Safe distancing? Unlikely - moderate likelihood village. Moderate village StrikerEZ 4 C1 4 Shard of Reading Known villager. Sensible NAI distribution analysis None Known villager 5 C1 5 Liranil Known villager. NAI NAI NAI 6 C1 6 Quinn0928 Known elim. Suggests potential elim warder for Green Ajah. Suggests 5 elims as Green Ajah. Plausible distribution. Strong chance of IKYK. Known elim 7 C1 7 James Brafin Suggests four eliminators. Misinterprets first writeup Confusion re first writeup feels very genuine - hard clear village for me. Village 8 C1 8 Quinn0928 Clears up James' misconception NAI NAI 9 C1 9 James Brafin Acknowledges misconception NAI NAI 10 C1 10 The Unknown Order Also clears up James' misconception NAI NAI 11 C1 11 Quinn0928 Asks James if first game Kindness feels genuine. Unlikely same team. Known elim 12 C1 12 James Brafin First game on this site Remember James has offsite experience NAI 13 C1 13 Lotus NAI NAI NAI 14 C1 14 Matrim's Dice Agrees publicly with Quinn re village vig. Assumes five eliminators. Unsure. Number of elims not a valuable day one discussion topic. Unsure 15 C1 15 Illwei Votes Condensation. Jokes about being an eliminator. Goes through roles. Expects three kills a cycle. Points out that overestimating elims a way to seem more village. Joke votes on Quinn (eliminator). Returns vote to Condensation. OOG reason for vote on Condensation? Very strong familiarity with Quinn. Sensible inclusion of warders in distro analysis. Agree with their point re overestimation for town read purposes. Mild village Condensation 16 C1 16 Dannex Wants Green Ajah to claim. Wants them mechanically confirmed, with yellow ajah protection. Doesn't want the green ajah to use their kill frequently. Suggests one black ajah vote manip. Do not like suggestion of green ajah claiming. Suspect evil, with black ajah having a yellow ajah member likely. Moderate evil 17 C1 17 Shard of Reading Points out no PMs except between Aes Sedai and their warders Thanks Shard! Perhaps revise Dannex assessment. Known villager 18 C1 18 Illwei Suggests vig kill be trigger happy. Jokes about conferrign with elim team. Mild village from encouragement of vig. Mild village 19 C1 19 Quinn0928 Asks Illwei to spell name correctly. Distancing? Unlikely, I think. Known elim 20 C1 20 Condensation Complains about speed of the game. Gut reads Illwei as trustworthy. Votes on Burnt. Tell me about it... Why village read from post? More likely that elims make faster gut reads in my experience. Unsure Burnt Spaghetti 21 C1 21 Matrim's Dice Revises assessment of elim numbers given warder. "Hopes" green ajah "good". Suggests unlikely vig kills accurate Good unhelpful word in context. Assume it means accurate. Discourages vig killing. Mild evil as such. Mild evil 22 C1 22 Quinn0928 Suggests Matrim pocketing Condensation Probably player familiarity Known elim 23 C1 23 Illwei Votes on Quinn as joke in response to name post. Further familiarity. Likely NAI - possibly mild village as slightly less likely on same team Mild village Quinn 24 C1 24 Quinn0928 Says busy so only making short posts NAI NAI 25 C1 25 Matrim's Dice Complains re ever changing votes. NAI NAI 26 C1 26 Quinn0928 Says they're procrastinating. NAI NAI 27 C1 27 Illwei Jokes about Green claiming. Says no notes in QF - just point and shoot. I should probably listen to this advice... NAI 28 C1 28 TJ Shade Clarifies absolutely no non-Warder/Aes Sedai PMs. GM Reeks of evil. 29 C1 29 Ashbringer Suggets players claim to their warders and communicate with them. Communicating always sensible, practicing PM safety. Known villager 30 C1 30 Quinn0928 Jokes about Illwei being Green Ajah. Distancing? Known elim 31 C1 31 Devotary of Spontaneity States white ajah useful to the elims. Says lots of protection likely - so possibly larger than standard team. Doubts two village yellow ajah so continuous protection can't be arranged. Makes sensible points. Possible village lean due to warning re yellow ajah Mild village 32 C1 32 Quinn0928 Clarifies that warders know their Aes Sedai's Ajah. NAI Known elim 33 C1 33 Ashbringer Notes no roleblocks in game. NAI Known villager 34 C1 34 Matrim's Dice Suggests not everyone may have a role NAI NAI 35 C1 35 Quinn0928 Suggests red ajah may not have warders for thematic reasons Possible? Known elim 36 C1 36 Illwei Alignment reads based on jokes? Difficult to know what is meant and what isn't. Reiterates their vote on Quinn as a joke. Largely unhelpful. Unsure if playstyle or obfuscating Very mild evil 37 C1 37 Quinn0928 Clear familiarity with Illwei Unsure Known elim 38 C1 38 Condensation Says already far behind on the game. Feels like immediate voting not necessarily the norm. You think *you* are behind? NAI 39 C1 39 Dannex Wants vanilla roles to claim. Says they're expendable because vanilla. Disagree vehemently. Most important role in the game is your mind and analysis. Not to mention vanilla claims narrow down elim targets. Moderate evil. 40 C1 40 Matrim's Dice Points out vanilla claims narrow field for elims. Agree. Basic but sensible point. Mild village. 41 C1 41 Dannex Says one vanilla claiming worth it for village What possible advantage does it convey to the village? Mild evil 42 C1 42 Quinn0928 Says it should be up to discretion of vanillas to reveal themselves. Promoting poor advice Known evil 43 C1 43 Illwei Points out uselessness of knowing whether we have vanilla roles. Says Dannex always has controversial opinions. Useful to know re Dannex. Mild village 44 C1 44 Lotus Says QFs move fast This one faster than most. NAI 45 C1 45 Dannex Jokes NAI NAI 46 C1 46 Quinn0928 Suggests elims may want to kill vanillas as definitely not protected Fair point. Known elim 47 C1 47 Dannex Votes Illwei. Suggests lynching a vanilla best possible mislynch. Still a mislynch (and misses that he could be lying but not elim). Still doesn't explain advantage of knowing whether they're in the game. Moderate evil Illwei 48 C1 48 TJ Shade GMs as a rule are evil. As before. Confirmed Shai'tan 49 C1 49 Illwei Says they wouldn't kill a vanilla if evil. Suggests claimed vanilla likely a warder. Has (joke)claimed vanilla. Warder? Mild village 50 C1 50 Quinn0928 Says Illwei could be troll villager. Suggests vanilla less likely to be protected or watched. Conversation on hypothetical vanillas is completely useless to the village. Known elim 51 C1 51 Gears Ability analysis. Says not to trust bonded. RP. NAI NAI 52 C1 52 Illwei Calls out Dannex's logic. Says they recall Dannex being against D1 lynches. Doesn't vote on Dannex - why not? Mild evil 53 C1 53 Quinn0928 Says that value in game has much more to do with thread than roles. Agree. Known elim 54 C1 54 Matrim's Dice Says Dannex's plan a bad idea and that we should vote on suspicion. Votes on Dannex. Agree with this wholeheartedly. Moderate village Dannex 55 C1 55 Dannex Still treats knowing of vanillas as useful info - doesn't justify why. Feels like they are missing a major step in their logic. Mild evil 56 C1 56 Illwei Jokes about trolling NAI NAI 57 C1 57 Dannex Says trolling not a factor in whether they vote on someone or not. Trolling can completely change meaning of what is written Mild evil 58 C1 58 Shard of Reading Against killing Illwei. Gut read and vote on Dannex. Says only an hour into C1, Dannex pushing hard for kill on minimal info. Oh good lord. Is it really only an hour into C1... Agree with gut read on Dannex. Known villager 59 C1 59 Lotus Doesn't like Dannex being aggressive Could be a playstyle thing NAI 60 C1 60 Dannex Says they aren't pushing hard for a kill Reads to me like they are. NAI 61 C1 61 Matrim's Dice Clarifies that lynching for suspicions better than for role info Obvious point NAI 62 C1 62 Quinn0928 D1 votes always low reasoning. Illwei often a good early lynch for elim team. Defence of Dannex with some distancing Known evil 63 C1 63 Condensation Votes on Dannex, retracts on Burnt Fair vote, revisit dependant on Dannex alignment. Mild village Dannex Burnt Spaghetti 64 C1 64 Dannex Says difficult to have suspicions on D1. Says push on them suspicious, as they just poke voted Illwei. Real attempt to backtrack - their vote is anything but a pokevote. Moderate evil. 65 C1 65 Shard of Reading Says that their interpretation of Dannex's actions are a push to kill Illwei. Valid interpretation - I agree. Known villager 66 C1 66 Dannex Confrontational response. Defensive - feels unnatural response Mild evil 67 C1 67 Matrim's Dice Asks that we avoid D1 lynch discussion again. Doesn't like people following their votes. Tryign to stall Dannex train? DOesn't feel too much like it. Unsure 68 C1 68 Illwei Now claims Warden. Doesn't think behaviour is elim nature for him. Doesn't see Dannex being pushy either. Suspicious of Shard of Reading for voting for Dannex. Also suspicious of Condensation. Disagree with suspicion of those suspicious of Dannex. Mild evil 69 C1 69 Matrim's Dice Retracts Dannex, votes Condensation Why? Mild evil Condensation Dannex 70 C1 70 Dannex Suggests Condensation and Reading top elim reads. Will vote on them if Illwei retracts vanilla claim. Why *still* insistent on this vanilla claim? Reading now confirmed villager. Condensation voting on them. Feels very reactionary. Moderate evil. 71 C1 71 Condensation Says Dannex vote still makes sense to them. Isn't pressured off Dannex. Moderate village 72 C1 72 Shard of Reading Clarifies feelings re Dannex Fair enough Known villager 73 C1 73 Illwei Questions apparent change in Condensation opinions on D1 voting If they've been called out for it each time previously, surely changing their mind is likely or nautral? NAI 74 C1 74 Quinn0928 Doesn't fault Condensation for changing playstyle. Agree NAI 75 C1 75 Matrim's Dice Doesn't want D1 lynch discussion. Is voting Condensation for where the vote landed, not the vote. Disagree that vote target poor _ had I been playing I'd likely have joined vote on Dannex. Mild evil 76 C1 76 Condensation Says they are doing an introspection class - reason for change in playstyle. Plausible. If so good for them. NAI 77 C1 77 Ashbringer Jokes? about their own D1 voting history and being killed Don't know context, probably joke NAI 78 C1 78 Shard of Reading Says they are talking of Dannex's surety as why they are voting for them, not the fact it is a D1 vote. Very sensible Mild village 79 C1 79 Quinn0928 Promises not to kill Ashbringer this game Joke NAI 80 C1 80 Illwei Gives good explanation of Reading's point of view Agree Mild village 81 C1 81 Condensation Says they historically had a hard time with decisiveness NAI NAI 82 C1 82 Matrim's Dice Had misread Reading's intentions Fair NAI 83 C1 83 Illwei Complains about speed of game. I have more than 1100 posts still to catch up on. You have it easy. NAI 84 C1 84 TJ Shade Vote Count. Dripping with the True Power. Hail Shai'Tan 85 C1 85 Quinn0928 Queries Illwei still voting on them Feels like oog friendship NAI 86 C1 86 Illwei Retracts Quinn. Claims two warders. Claims Dannex and SoR as village reads. Retraction (and pokevote) seem driven by prior relationship NAI Quinn 87 C1 87 Quinn0928 Asks to be added to Illwei village reads Joke NAI 88 C1 88 Dannex Asks Illwei to respond to whether they are retracting vanilla claim Still cannot figure out Dannex's obsession with this vanilla claim Unsure 89 C1 89 Shard of Reading Notes he finds the village reading of themselves and Dannex entertaining NAI NAI 90 C1 90 Breaker Not quite sure what they're saying here Unsure Unsure 91 C1 91 Illwei Says they never actually claimed vanilla. Explains to Breaker that they were recapping thread thus far. Sensible enough NAI 92 C1 92 Quinn0928 Explains the discussion re vanillas to Breaker NAI NAI 93 C1 93 Breaker Says they misquoted and were thrown off. NAI NAI 94 C1 94 Shard of Reading Says pages 1 and 2 rules discussion NAI Confirmed villager 95 C1 95 Illwei Smiles NAI NAI 96 C1 96 Dannex Retracts Illwei. Most suspicious of Reading and Condensation. Consistent with prior stated posts. Unsure 97 C1 97 Quinn0928 Says only Illwei can explain their trolling re claiming GM and IM as warders Or anyone else could... NAI 98 C1 98 Breaker Screams NAI NAI 99 C1 99 Quinn0928 Says they will be active this game It certainly seems so NAI 100 C1 100 Matrim's Dice Explains but misunderstands Illwei's joke NAI NAI 101 C1 101 Quinn0928 @s Illwei re Matrim saying we should ignore them Friendly jibing NAI From what I have read so far, and acknowledging there is much I haven't read, I am so far most suspicious of Dannex. I can't work out their apparent fixation with vanilla roles, and find it particularly odd that they want vanillas to claim. I also dislike their request in their first post for the Green Ajah to claim in PMs (although clearly impossible). I further note their request that the village vig kill doesn't use their ability frequently, which I see as elim-helpful. Beyond this, and again acknowledging that there are still 17 pages left in D1 for me to read, I note that one of the players suspicious of Dannex was killed D1. My analysis is clearly still in an embryonic state, but I need to take a brief break from going through the thread, and think breaking my notes up may help others trying to read them.
  8. Thanks both. Good to know there isn't that much time pressure then to catch up before a contended lynch...
  9. As an aside, all, I am desperately trying to catch up on the past cycles - does anyone have a vote count for this cycle, so that I don't have to jump way ahead in my read through?
  10. Thanks TJ Shade, and those who have been so kind as to welcome me. You will have to forgive me if it takes me some time to catch up on all this. I shall have to skim it, rather than follow my normal approach, but even so there is clearly a lot to get through.
  11. Happy birthday!!!

    1. Show previous comments  4 more
    2. Truthless of Shinovar
    3. Vapor

      Vapor

      Happy Birthday!

    4. Condensation

      Condensation

      Happy birthday! Happy Halloween! Have a good one of both!

  12. I shall sign up as Locke Tekiel.
  13. I shall sign up as Locke Tekiel.
  14. Why would I, as an elim, go on to night kill one of my two main suspects? Given I have made something like one post since D2, your certainty is pretty incriminating. Good game, though. Presuming this is LyLo if you're trying to lynch me. Araris
  15. OK, Matrim is 100% evil. Will stake my rep on it. Very clear that I haven't been well, and haven't been paying nearly as much attention to this game as normal. Opportunism from Matrim here, which implicates Pyro as well.