Young Bard

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Everything posted by Young Bard

  1. Hi - I'm not caught up right now, but I hope to have caught up and to have done some kind of analysis by the end of the Day Turn.
  2. May I ask, what did Doomslug do mechanically, anyway? Or was it always just a red herring? Thanks, Steel, for running this game. It was great fun to play - I can't wait for your return in two years.
  3. OK, I can clear up a couple things - I was in Largo-2 last cycle. I shot the Lifebuster last cycle, with the expectation that Ark would lightlance the Lifebuster in my place. I decided, mostly on a whim when claiming last cycle, that it would be better to be incredibly overly paranoid safe, and claim a Poco, since if I claimed a Largo it would seem like a waste to be light-lancing the ship while Fura shot it. I have a suspicion about what happened with the Lifebuster, but it involves major Skyward spoilers - those that read the book will know what I'm talking about. For this discussion, it's fair to say that it's highly unlikely that Elandera has activated their SK win con, and it's also likely that if it hadn't been for this hidden ability the Lifebuster would have blown up the base last cycle, which means Ark didn't light-lance the Lifebuster last night as we agreed.
  4. ...Blast. 4 players left, and a Lifebuster as well. At least it's not on full health from last cycle. I'll put in an action to light-lance the Lifebuster, just in case - although I think the rest of you combined should be able to destroy it completely, with Elan's double action.
  5. ...Seriously, what.
  6. My claims also directly led to the deaths of Maill and Gaea, which would be a strange thing to do unless I was village. Mathematically, I'm pretty sure the only way the Lifebuster could have been destroyed was if the Eliminator gunned down the Lifebuster. So if anything, I think that clears Xino more.
  7. Right. I'm suspicious of Elan's claim, but I'm not prepared to risk the lynch on that suspicion. Fura's shown themselves to be trustworthy, which leaves Ark and Xino. This is actually harder than it first appears, since Xinoehp's been sending in actions most cycles, but I'm going to vote for Ark as the last Eliminator.
  8. Blegh. That's not good. At least there won't be an Elim kill tonight - there straight up aren't enough villagers left to hold off a lifebuster unless the Elims chip in. Everyone, make sure you get your actions in.
  9. Because I shot Gaea last night, and I was in the Poco-1, so the only other ship whose shields were knocked out was the Fresa-2. Elandera, xxGaea.
  10. You were in Fresa-2?! Then that means Gaea isn't in a ship. @Elandera, are you in M-Bot? I view Elandera in M-Bot and Gaea as a Gunner more likely than the other way round, though I'd like to hear peoples opinions on that. EDIT: I was in Poco-1, and targeted Gaea, as I mentioned above.
  11. OK. So, I should mention that Striker told me yesterday that they were light-lancing/attacking Drake. That, on it's own, would not have been enough to kill Drake, but the combination with 2 Krell ships certainly does. Striker's death is fair, given that they'd been cleared by most people, so is probably a good Elim target. The other thing I should probably mention is that Drake told me that he knew Elandera was either in M-Bot or was a Gunner, presumably for the same reasons we knew Maill was a Gunner. Fura can confirm I passed this information onto them last night, in the event that I died. I was somewhat suspicious of this claim at the time, since I viewed Drake as the most likely active Eliminator, but now that they've flipped village, it looks pretty bad for Elandera. I was in the Poco-1 - I assume it was a Krell ship that attacked me. Which means that if Gaea isn't a Gunner, they must be in Fresa-2. If anyone could please counterclaim this, that would be great, just in case there are 4 Elims (or if Elan is the Traitor.) Also, why does Gaea have 2 votes on them and not just 1? I intend to have a more in-depth post tomorrow, with a 'just-in-case' analysis of all the remaining players (because my analysis has been great so far... /s) but I figure I should put out the most important information tonight to give everyone time to comment and add anything relevant to the conversation.
  12. Frankly, I'm not too concerned about the Krell at this point. We're in the late-game, and so long as we find the last Eliminator (which I believe we can accomplish in at most one and a half cycles) before the Krell kills us all or destroys the base. The Krell will be a minor nuisance tonight, and tomorrow night it will be more painful but easily surviveable, by which time the game will most likely be won.
  13. Right. No lifebuster - I'm going to target Gaea tonight. I'd like enough people to join that we do 10 damage if possible, because that way we can rule out the inactives by tomorrow night (Gaea tonight, Xino tomorrow night). I'm leaning towards any remaining Elim being inactive, but if I'm wrong, Drake is the last active player I think it could feasibly be.
  14. I already evaluated Striker this cycle, and I stand by what I said (even if I was wrong about what exactly an Ace Pilot can do, it's still not something that I believe an Elim Striker would claim at that moment.) The fact that they were one of the first to jump on the Maill bandwagon further increases my confidence, since I think an Elim might wait a little longer to see if the situation is salvageable (ie if anyone threw shade at either your or my claim and how successful that is), and then bus their teammate if that fails. Storm's confession echoed through the courtyard where everyone had assembled. One by one, people called for Storm to be court-marshalled, faces set and grim. Rivelda sighed. Her attack on Storm the previous night, while everyone was distracted by the approaching Lifebuster, had terrified her. What if she'd gotten it wrong? What if it was her fault if she shot down another ally? That hadn't happened. And now, it seemed as though they might win. Against the rebels, against the Krell - they were one step ahead for the first time since the rebels turned traitor. She should feel happy. So why didn't she?
  15. Unless there's a Lifebuster, I'll be shooting an inactive again tonight (and would preferably like assistance to see if we can get the inactives out of the way as candidates as quickly as possible). Fura's claim directly led to Maill's lynch, so they're almost certainly not an Elim. Assuming the Elims aren't among the inactives, and with my analysis from before, that leaves... Elan and Drake, so we're right back where we started at the beginning of the cycle. I'm going to look back at Maill's posts and see if it leans one way or the other - with Maill voting on Elan today, however, when it was clear at the time that the lynch would be between Elan and Drake, I'm far more likely to believe Drake is the remaining Elim.
  16. Welp. I honestly wasn't expecting that, but Elandera, Mailliw. I'm kind of paranoid that LyLo is this cycle, and that Fura, Elan and a third player are Elims. With an Elim kill tonight, it becomes 3-5, with two inactive villagers - to make sure that doesn't happen can we all agree that if Maill is innocent we can afford to ignore the Krell for one cycle and blow Fura out of the sky?
  17. Alright, there's few enough people now that I can try to do a process of Elimination: Xinoehp512, "Llerk"Elandera "Bad Wolf" Brenna Mailliw73, Millis “Storm” StrombergArk1002, Bard "Bastard" DominionFuramirionind, Julis "Junior" ElliotStrikerEZ, Seth "Striker" JohnsonYoung Bard, Rivelda "Topsy-Turvy" KlineXXGaea, Iradesca "Paradise Song" AlehDrake "" Marshall From this list of living players, the only one I can comfortably say is a villager is Striker, for the simple reason that I don't think an Elim Striker would make the claim they made yesterday as it would be far more useful to keep the Ace Pilot role secret and prove you couldn't be submitting the Elim kill. The next person I'd remove is probably Ark. When the lifebuster hit, their posts seemed fairly... abrasive compared to normal, in a way that I feel an Elim wouldn't do. I'm hesitant about making that the thing that removes him from suspicion, though, since it's not an attitude I really want to promote, but Ark has been particularly active this game, which I do want to encourage and I think they have a fairly high death rate even for an SE player, so I'll let it slide and eliminate them from the list. I'm also going to remove xinoehp and gaea due to lack of information. And of course, I'm removing myself. This leaves: Elandera "Bad Wolf" Brenna Mailliw73, Millis “Storm” StrombergFuramirionind, Julis "Junior" ElliotDrake "" Marshall A bunch of thoughts, in no particular order: I was very suspicious of Maill after yesterday - with Joe's death, I've become extremely paranoid that the Elims are hiding among the inactives (and I still am, but I'll have a look at the Elim kills), and Maill seemed the most likely candidate. So, I shot Maill last night (I told Elandera what I planned to do, mainly to see how they'd react. They tried to sway me from the idea. An Elim Elan/Maill team is possible... but far from certain, and now Maill's voting on Elan, which is throwing doubt on that idea.) The ships that have no shields right now are Largo-2, already confirmed to be owned by Striker, and Largo-3. @Mailliw73, were you in Largo-3 last night? Note: If Maill was in Largo-3, presumably the gunners shot down the Lifebuster, meaning my plan way back from Cycle 1 worked. That's something, at least. If someone else was in Largo-3, then please come forward, since it means that Maill must be a Gunner since that's the only way their ship wasn't damaged. Fura, I'm neutral on. My gut wants to trust them, but another part of me feels like that trust hasn't really been earned, and my gut is rarely worth a damnation. I'm looking at the Day 3 lynch in particular, since if Fura were an Elim, we'd expect their teammates to try and defend her. Day 3 re-read: - A bit of discussion on what ships should be repaired and how. Mainly led by Elandera and Fura. I do feel like this was kind of distracting from lynch talk, which makes me slightly less trusting on both Elan and Fura. Vote Count: Drake: Elan{1}, Joe{1}, Gaea: Sart{1} Fura: Drake{1}, Ark{1}, DA{2}, Sart{3}, Fura{1} Sart: Bard{1}, DA{1}, DA{3}, Elan{2}, Striker{1}, Sart{4} Bard: Sart{2}, Joe: Fura{2} Wow. Looking back, I didn't realise how strongly I pushed the Sart lynch. I guess that makes the biggest defender of Fura... me? Uhh, oops. That doesn't make Fura any more suspicious to me, but it might for other people. Elan switches from Drake to Sart at a fairly key moment, moving from a three way Drake-Fura-Sart lynch to a Sart-Fura lynch with Sart in the lead. If Elan were a villager, would this make Elan more likely to be teammates with Drake? Fura? I'm honestly not sure. Fura gives a rundown on a few players. On Elandera, they point out the distracting from lynch discussion, but then they say Elandera is also being useful and end up with a Neutral read. I could easily see this coming from an elim!Fura, that wants to have their cake and eat it too by distancing from Elandera but not needing to vote on them if it comes to it. On Drake, Fura reads Serial Killer. Thing is, I don't think M-Bot has the Serial Killer win-con, anyway - we certainly haven't been seeing any kills, so I'm optimistic. Also, Elim!Fura getting genuine elim reads on somebody could mean they're interpreting those reads as having to be due to a Serial Killer win con, rather than the statistically more likely Elims. (There may have been a more specific reason given for why Fura thinks Drake is an SK which I've just forgotten about - it's not mentioned in the particular post I'm mentioning from. Fura pulls a last minute bandwagon on Joe - this is read by people after Joe's death as a distancing maneuver, and seeing as it's less than 8 minutes to rollover... given everything else, I'm inclined to agree? It's also worth noting that Joe put the second vote on Drake, and wasn't around the rest of the cycle (I don't know whether they were online to have the potential to remove their vote if things went wrong, but I assume not since Joe's been busy IRL) which at the time made Drake the only candidate with multiple candidates on them. It's possible that this was distancing, but I'm inclined to think it's not since starting a train can very easily get out of hands as an Eliminator. I think in the end, if I had to guess, I'd go for a Fura-Elandera team, possibly with one of the inactives I discounted earlier. And if I'm right, we can lynch Fura D6 just like they suggested back in D3.
  18. ...You targeted 3A? And you got a message that 3A was shot down? Either the GM made a mistake in one of our PM's, or you're lying. Also, it's 3AM, and I need to sleep. I'll figure this out tomorrow.
  19. Holy mother of bandwagons, Batman! (Actually, I'd be fine with a lynch on Drake, but I think we need an alternate lynch to prevent conversation from dying down.) Lumgol, this is the second cycle in a row I IMP'd a target we agreed on, and that ship wasn't shot down, presumably because you didn't submit an action. Why is that? To me, it looks like Joe submitted the Elim kill on DA/Walin (more likely DA, as the active player), killing both, and then the other of DA/Walin had the automatic retaliation, shooting back and killing Joe, and then Joe's wingmate Snip killed the other of DA/Walin. Since Joe was submitting actions, but not really posting, part of me thinks we should start culling the inactives in case there are any more hiding that way. There's no need to waste a lynch on it, though - I might try and start to knock an inactive out with my destructor blasts tonight. Potential inactive kills: @xxGaea @xinoehp512 @Mailliw73 I'm actually sorta glad that if three villagers had to die this cycle, it was Snip and Walin, because they'd have been on this list too. I'm tempted to put Ark on as well, but they're at least active enough to be voting, and that's a typical level of activity for them, so I'll give them a pass for now. EDIT: Steel, does anyone have an automatic vote on them, or did absolutely everyone (including the people I listed above) submit an action last cycle?
  20. Hmmm... with mention of bunnies in the base in the RP, I feel like that's GM speak for "Seriously, you need to get your act together because the base is being overrun by Krell." Which is kind of worrying. I don't think we know the health of the base, but I get the sense that it's probably not healthy after how disorganised we've been. I'll IMP 3A, and @Lumgol can finish it off.
  21. OK, I didn't feel like I needed to respond to this when Sart voted on me, but... Did people forget the part where I'm hard-cleared? (Well, there's the possibility that Drake is lying, and that we're in an Elim team together, but that's not the kind of maneuver an Elim team would pull that early in the game.) While I'm here, Sart, the reason Drake suddenly trusted me so much is because they had proof I submitted an action (Light-lancing them) that I could not have done as a Gunner. And... even besides that, I don't agree that Sart being an Elim in any way indicates I'm an Elim. I didn't just vote on Sart, I lead the lynch against them. For me to be an Elim, you'd have to believe that we, the Elim team, first decided to take an enormous risk and have another Elim lie to cover me, therefore guaranteeing that if one of us was lynched the other would almost immediately follow suit, demonstrating an extreme unwillingness to get one of our own lynched, and then the very next round, do a complete 180 on our strategy and decide to bus our own teammate. So I really don't follow this logic. I think the lynch right now is between Sart and Fura - I don't remember what I said on Fura last cycle when I was actually going back and looking through everyones posts, and I can't be bothered checking, but right now I don't remember anything that makes me particularly suspicious of Fura.
  22. OK, I wasn't expecting to be alive this round. No, I was in Poco-3. I'm not sure why it doesn't also mention that my shields are down? I IMP'd 2D, which I assume is still alive, because the Krell Ship that attacked me and also lost it's shields, 1F, was specifically mentioned as having been destroyed. Which means that @Lumgol didn't fire at 2D like they said they would in thread? I'll drop a vote on Sart, since I feel some of their phrasing sounds like an Eliminator trying to position themselves as a villager. Particularly this post: 'We need to lynch Gunners'? That feels like a sneaky way of trying to sneak in the assumption that Sart is a villager without anyone thinking too much. On top of that, the statement is a fairly obvious one, contributing basically nothing we don't already know.
  23. Bleh. I promised analysis, but I'm lazy, and it's now 2am and I haven't even started. 1. Snipexe, "Scissors" - @Snipexe hasn't posted much, would like to hear more from them. Neutral.2. Xinoehp512, "Llerk" - Most of their posts that I was able to find involve trying to figure out who's targeting which ships, which is fairly NAI. Mentions a trust on DA for their annoyance at Sart. I'm actually inclined to give them a soft Elim read for trying to fly under the rader a little with NAI posts - I'd appreciate seeing them respond to lynch discussions a little more (though given this has been a fairly low activity thread, they're certainly not alone, and this level of activity isn't unusual for Xino.)3. Elandera "Bad Wolf" Brenna - Breaks the tie by moving their vote from me to Stick in order to guarantee a lynch. This is fairly consistent with their behaviour (they broke the game against themselves in the Nalthis game I ran for basically identical reasons), so I'm inclined to give them a soft trust read for that.4. Mailliw73, Millis “Storm” Stromberg - Less active than normal, but that's due to NAI stuff and having a stronger focus on the other game. Neutral.5. Devotary, “Yaw(n)” Yafrion Pilot - I was trying to think of if anything can be gleaned by this, and the answer is yes, but only with random speculation. Devotary's died a lot recently, and there are some players who tend to factor that into their thought process more than others generally. So I'm less inclined to believe Maill, Joe, and possibly Fura are Eliminators (there are possibly more, but I don't know all of your opinions on this and how much you keep track of this stuff.)6. Ark1002, Bard "Bastard" Dominion - Mainly RP - I'd like to hear a little more in the lynch discussion from them ( @Ark1002). They join the lynch on Stick early on with little reasoning, which is fairly par for the course for them.7. Furamirionind, Julis "Junior" Elliot - Soft village gut read? They mix up Sart and Straw when discussing last cycles lynch, which feels more like a villager brainfart than anything else (not too unlike my own ). 8. CadCom/Lumgol, "Preciousss" - CadCom was inactive, and we haven't really seen much from Lum yet. CadCom was one of three not to submit any action Night 1, but was online in that time (I'm inclined to just put that down to IRL reasons). They join the bandwagon on me for no reason given - so slight Elim read overall? Would like to hear more from Lum.9. StrikerEZ, Seth "Striker" Johnson - Hasn't said much - @StrikerEZ . That said, they said that at least one Elim probably voted on Stick (which, assuming a standard number of Eliminators, is statistically likely, even if they didn't find something fishy about some of those votes). They also voted on Sart - if Sart turns out to be an Eliminator, I'd put a slight trust on Striker, since it doesn't feel like distancing to me.10. Young Bard, Rivelda "Topsy-Turvy" Kline - Extremely charming and handsome, and obviously a villager. Also thinks he has a sense of humour at 2:30 in the morning (he doesn't.) 11. Sart, Sarah "Seraph" Potts - Moderate Elim read. "We need to lynch Gunners, before more of us get shot out of the sky." - I agree with DA that this line seems suspicious, since it feels like it's trying a little hard to make themselves seem like one of the villagers, and also saying nothing of substance. If I'm still alive tomorrow, they'd probably be my top lynch candidate at the moment. 12. Darkness Ascendent, Noel "Skinny Ship" Miller - I was slightly suspicious of them earlier, but I'm leaning towards trusting them now, actually. I still don't think they should be entrusted with singular knowledge of who has what ships, though. 13. Walin, Ildem "Isekai Inbred" - Basically entirely inactive. @Walin - Neutral. 14. XXGaea, Iradesca "Paradise Song" Aleh - @xxGaea- Has posted once since the start of the game, to mention that they might be inactive for a day or so. 15. A Joe in the Bush, Knowstoo "Number 4" Much - @A Joe in the Bush - Hasn't posted all that much - what they have I find fairly NAI. Neutral.16. _Stick_, Stick "somethingcool" stick Pilot17. Drake "" Marshall - I discussed this earlier - part of me really wants to trust Drake (especially since I love his RP this game), but another part feels like he's pocketing me. He mentioned in a PM that he's not typically known for doing that, which might be true, I don't remember, so... who knows. Neutral, but worth keeping a particularly close eye on. The biggest challenge this game will probably be inactives, which is a shame. I think it's just that time of year where everyone has IRL stuff to deal with, and there's another game going on that prevents people from giving this their full attention. To the people who I pinged - try and say something, about this post or one of the people who've died so far - it would be a great help.