Young Bard

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1,551 Gerontarch

About Young Bard

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    Young Bard
  • Birthday 12/29/1999

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    Sydney, Australia
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    Hermit Booklover.

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  1. Oh, man. I got played in this game in a way I haven't been for quite a while. Night 2 was when the game really got interesting for me, but unfortunately, it was also the night I died. Fifth PM'ed me saying he's the Seeker, he scanned me and knows I'm a Villager Lurcher, and is paranoid of Maill (also being paranoid of Maill at that moment, correctly, I buy this completely). Oh, and by the way, could I protect him that night? If it had been most people, I'd have probably been way more cautious than I was, but I was feeling really good about Fifth - his posts in thread sounded so damn villagery, and his PM only reinforced that, so he was my strongest trust read (the Spiked knew that, since I'd told Maill my reads list, and I'd ruled out a Fifth-Maill team because I thought Fifth would be unlikely to tunnel so hard on Maill in that case both in thread and even stronger in my PM, but at that stage, I was slated for death so Fifth felt free to tell me whatever he liked... *sigh*). So, I go along with it. Actually, I meant to do a trust read list at the end of Night 2, but simply lost track of time and rollover happened before I got to it. Part of me wonders if it would have made a difference on the amount of trust on either Fifth (at the top of my list, and therefore most likely to be my protect target) or Maill (at the bottom of the list, and therefore worth looking into as suspicious according to a confirmed villager). I certainly don't think it would have made any difference in Maill's case - I was far from the only person to be suspicious of him, and he managed to pull through anyway. As for Fifth, it would probably have been a stretch to go from "Bard trusts Fifth" -> "Bard was protecting Fifth" -> "Fifth baited Bard into protecting him in order to draw away his protect and attack him." Oh, and also, I set up a PM with both Tani and Quinn that cycle in which my paranoia on Maill made me recommend them to change Tani's kill target away from Illwei, thinking Maill wouldn't be so gutsy as to agree to a fellow Spiked for the Mistborn kill. Fifth, I take my hat off to you. Though now I know not to underestimate you, it won't be as easy to fool me next time. Thanks so much to Kas for running this game and for the amazing writeups. And congratulations to the Elim team for your victory, and especially to Fifth for that gambit which I completely fell for.
  2. Ugh. I started doing an analysis post on several different players, but then I clicked "See new replies" and my post got snaffled, and now I'm really annoyed. Anyway, have some RP, analysis post should come tonight, probably. So, Lasalen hadn't been one of the murderers. Disappointing. If it got out that Thiriel had assisted in Lasalen's death, only for them to be innocent, it would be a major dent in his plans. Still, there had been plenty of people there that day. There was very little to cause anyone to point blame at Thiriel himself. There were rumours swirling about town, of figures snooping about at night carrying spikes, or a herd of koloss heading for the town. Superstitious nonsense, all of it, Thiriel was sure. In the span of a couple, short weeks, the once-friendly quiet village had transformed itself. Was it really only two weeks ago that no-one locked their doors at night? That they would smile at each other on the street and exchange a friendly word, instead of scowling at each other with wild, baggy eyes, seeing monsters where once they saw friends? Some would say it was sad to see how little the village spirit seemed to count for in this time of crisis, how awful that these innocent folk could be brought so low so quickly. But Thiriel would say it was an opportunity. People, in the midst of paranoia, were easy to manipulate. With a few soft words here, a gentle nudge there, and it would be so easy to get them dancing to whatever tune Thiriel set. Oh, Thiriel was sure they'd find their murderers. But if a couple other innocent bystanders who stood in Thiriel's way were unfortunately attacked in the process, would they really be missed? Thiriel entered the bar and asked Sara for a drink. There were a few people there, but not enough to be overcrowded in particular. Thiriel made some small-talk with a couple of them as he steadily drank down his glass. It was only as he was draining the last dregs out of the that he did what he came for. "You know, Sara, Roseanna has been unusually quiet lately. It seems she's hardly left her room these past few days - I saw her come out one time, looking almost sickly - then she fled back indoors almost immediately, as though she were hiding herself away from everyone else." He paused, just for a moment, to let those words sink in - he noted without turning his head that the others seemed to be listening. "They say hiding secrets can do that to a person." Another pause. Then Thiriel shook his head. "Still, I'm sure it's nothing, I'm just letting my mind wonder away with me. I should really probably be going." ( @Biplet @Burnt Spaghetti )
  3. I'm slightly short on time, so this will be briefer than I want it to be, but I'm gonna drop a vote on Ashbringer. They don't sound to me like they're actually trying to solve the game - large parts of the discussion they've contributed is around the mechanics of the game, rather than analysis, and the analysis they have done feels like they're playing it safe, like they don't want to say anything that will attract attention or that they can't reverse on a dime later as necessary.
  4. I'm hoping to get some RP done this turn, and to respond to the various PM's, but first of all I want to cement Books in as the candidate, since they're in the lead and I'd rather make sure there isn't a tie of some kind - this way I shouldn't give any players or GM's coronaries over last minute vote switches. (I think they're probably my preferred candidate between Illwei, Stick, and Books, as well.) Also, Pyromancer.
  5. Uhhh... Partly gut. Partly the fact that you and Quinn are more high-active players, and I'm conscious of the discussion after the MR about how high-activity players tend to get more suspicion tunnelled on them because there's more there to find suspicious, so all other things being equal, I'm trying to go after the lower-activity players.
  6. I know Striker used to get exe'd early a lot, I have no idea if that's still a thing. But his post seems consistent with what I remember of his playstyle. Young Pyromancer - you were awfully quick to jump on Striker, and I kind of got the sense you weren't actually trying to find any Elims so much as you needed to seem villagery and jump on the first plausible candidate you could find.
  7. "Murders?" Thiriel asked, trying to sound shocked. "In Fallion's Tears? How terrible!" Finally. How many years had it been, stuck in the arse-end of nowhere, and with no way to make his name beyond helping chronic gamblers retrieve their ducks. Ducks, for the Lord Rulers sake. You wouldn't have heard of the Lord Heron or any of the other lords ever having to stoop to dealing with ducks now, would you? Noisy, smelly little buggers. But this... this was an opportunity. An opportunity to get noticed by the people who really mattered. Who'd take him away from this stupid, backwash town. Thiriel, determined social climber, is ready to do his part to rid Fallion's Tears of these foul vermin who'd commit such horrendous acts. And to make sure he gets his due recognition at the end of it. (Apologies to Kas for the late signup.)
  8. Yeah, I thought about taking my QF spot and running a different QF instead, but I think I'd prefer not to take the spot right now, if someone else is ready, since I also have RL commitments I need to deal with.
  9. Hmmm... I'm vaguely half-remembering things from 4 years ago, so I'm much less sure now you said that. Maybe I'm mixing Meta up with someone else. I'm looking through old docs and posts now. I'd definitely stand by Coinshots killing inactives as a very valid strategy, though. Yeah, I think I am thinking of someone else, but again, this is just good policy, and is definitely a step in the right direction (though from what I've seen, there's usually some consideration for this already in the current meta).
  10. Ha. Yeah, that was amazing, and slightly terrifying. When I woke up and saw that Illwei had died, I was convinced that we'd lost the game, because surely the rest of us would follow. Still, Doubt and Paranoia are wonderful things sometimes... I basically agree with this. It's come and gone as a problem before, and usually it's been solved just by having a more conscious awareness and calling it out when it happens - in other words, making the targeting of active players more frowned upon in the SE meta. There's an old post by Meta a previous time when this was a major issue which I want to post, but I can't find it, which is annoying me.
  11. Dannex Gears I'm sorry - I considered, but I really can't let you leave these things to chance.
  12. Kings_way, Dannex. I feel I should put something here, but I'm really not sure what, beyond vague paranoid rumblings in the back of my head that this is a terrible mistake.
  13. Ugh. So, it looks like it's down to either Kings or Gears. Kings I've already analysed to death, mainly because he simply doesn't have very much to analyse. So, here's a more in-depth analysis on Gears: Their voting record is... non-existent until this cycle. I dunno, I said this last time, but that feels like a deliberate choice more than anything else. If it were just an Eliminator trying to hide, voting at some point would have blended in more. Now that it's probably LyLo, then my guess is that Gears decided to end his experiment or whatever this was, and try to play more to his wincon. As for his analysis, he usually did a post-by-post commentary each cycle of what happened the previous cycle. A lot of it is just a humourous restatement of what the person said without commentary, which could be a way of trying to appear active without actually contributing anything. The only real analysis post was after Illwei died looking back over her posts, which is fairly ordinary - it clears Liranil and Quinn, fairly conservative judgements which just about everyone reached independently, and doesn't really go beyond that. I would have liked to see something a bit more... ambitious from that analysis, even if it was a reach, but I did the same analysis myself and couldn't find anything, so I can't be too hypocritical. As for the other posts... this is going to sound weird, but they don't sound like a villagers posts, which makes me trust them. They sound like Gears doesn't care about whether or not people even read him as a Villager, which only a Villager could afford to do. Then again, I don't think I've played with Gears before, so that could just be his playstyle as well, and he'd know that as an Eliminator, I suppose. So, yeah. But my number 1 choice would still be Dannex if anyone wants to help me push for a Dannex lynch, and between Kings and Gears, I think my preferred candidate is Kings.
  14. Ugh, I'm kinda peeved by this - this game is about trying to find Elims through analysis. With Connie's no-lying policy, if she said "I'm a Villager" and with us all knowing her policy, it would immediately eliminate her as a suspect, which invalidates the whole point of the game. So I hope Connie does no such thing. Unfortunately, my Dannex lynch hasn't taken off, so I guess I'll switch my vote to Random Bystander, who was next highest on my suspicions list. I feel like I'm really going to regret that, but it's 3:30am and my brain is mush, so... I should sleep and consider my life choices in the morning (or possibly afternoon )
  15. OK, Illwei's flip should give us at least a little bit of information. Quinn and Liranil are both softcleared in my book, since Illwei pushed for both of their lynches pretty hard C3 and C2, respectively. That leaves in our suspect pool: Ash/Flying - I don't remember a ton of Ash's stuff from memory, and they've just been replaced by a pinchhitter, so... yeah, hopefully Flying will be more active so I can get a read on them. Neutral Gears - Hasn't voted at all, but has posted some post analysis each cycle - Ugh. I want to say that's an Elim strat, to avoid attention and scrutiny, but honestly, it's such an obviously deliberately done thing that I'm more inclined to believe it's some experiment being done by Gears this game, and so completely NAI. I'd put him as maybe Slight Elim, if only due to the lack of available alternatives. Connie - So chaotic that pretty much anything they do will be NAI, which may be the entire point. Still, I can't help but feel an Elim wouldn't attract that much attention to themselves, so... Slight Village Dannex - There was something about their vote on Connie last cycle that felt slightly... opportunistic to me. I don't really think that someone who was genuinely looking for Eliminators would seriously think Connie's claim was genuinely suspicious (Dannex pointed out there's no reason for a Villager to claim Elim, but I'd point out there's equally no reason for an Elim to claim Elim either, so that's not a convincing argument). It's entirely possible that Dannex isn't suspicious of Connie, but simply wanted to vote Connie out because of their chaotic playstyle, given this comment, but... frankly, I just came out of the AG where players trying to dictate how others should play SE was a huge frigging issue that became a mess, and the whole thing just makes me really tired, so... I'm going to do my best to give Dannex the benefit of the doubt and hope he's not doing that. Moderate Elim Kings_way - Kings_way is strange, because he's gotten suspicion for this post. And... I kind of agree that it's suspicious, but think it's suspicious for completely different reasons? The argument seems to be "If Kings were really inactive, then how did he know that Orlok was also inactive? Maybe they're just lurking and pretending..." Which... I don't find remotely convincing - First, Orlok had just been replaced by a pinchhitter, so I don't think it takes that much to really figure out why, and even someone with Kings activity level could plausibly know that Orlok had been inactive. Second, if the theory is that Kings is lurking, then surely they'd have stopped lurking to try and save Illwei. That didn't happen, which, if Kings were an Elim, I can only assume means he is genuinely inactive, not pulling off some pseudo-inactive strategy. At the same time, there is absolutely something really weird about that post. I mean... people were joking about Connie being the only Elim, but Kings seems to just miss the joke entirely and try to do some sincere analysis - essentially "Actually, I think it likely if Connie were an Elim, they wouldn't be the only one!" Which... I don't mean to be rude, but seems like something bluntly obvious for a bunch of different reasons. So I don't really know what to make of that post. I know Kings arrived sometime during my hiatus, and it may even be his first game, so that might go a part of the way to explaining it? If I wanted to see a Village!Kings making that post, I'd say you have a player who joins up, feels swamped, wants to contribute but doesn't feel they know how, so makes that post to just dip their toes in and try and act like everyone else seems to be acting. If I were viewing that post from an Elim!Kings perspective, it would be almost the same, except now with even more pressure of sounding normal and blending in while not knowing exactly how. Which means it's entirely plausible to be read both ways. Overall, I'd say I have maybe a very Slight Elim read on them, but I frankly talked myself in and out of seeing that one line both ways that I've gone cross-eyed and have actively ruined my ability to say anything with any confidence whatsoever, beyond hoping they'll post more in future so I can maybe have a bit more to work with next time I analyse them. Shard of Reading - similarly inactive, but I think I've gone overboard enough on the Freudian readings of individual lines for one day so I'll just say Slight Elim, and that might be why there was no counter bandwagon to try and save Illwei. Random Bystander - Illwei voted on Random Bystander towards the end of last cycle, which is... an IKYK. It could be a distancing tactic from a fellow Elim, but it could also be meant to be disguised as a distancing tactic? I do find it interesting that Random Bystander explicitly says they trust Illwei just a couple hours before rollover, but doesn't try to save Illwei, which... doesn't make sense from either an Elim or a Village perspective. Unless... at that point, Illwei had three votes on them, from Matrim, Quinn, and Liranil. All other candidates (I think) had one vote on them. So, if Illwei and Random Bystander were the only Elims online, they didn't have the ability to swing the vote on their own, except onto Connie or Kings, and even then with only a 50% chance of success. So if Bystander were an Elim, and hoping to save Illwei, they could be trying to drum up support for Illwei (specifically, at least one village vote onto a semi-plausible lynch candidate), but leave enough room for distancing if it didn't work? It seems kind of thin, but it's also the only story I can tell which feels like it kinda makes sense. So... Moderate Elim (I might have said Slight Elim, but I've marked three people as that already, and this feels just slightly more substansive than those other reads.) Looking back at the list, I guess that makes my top suspicion Dannex. Oh, and apparently my playstyle is sheepish? I... honestly don't intend it to be, and I certainly hope it isn't my 'normal' playstyle. I guess it's partly Matrim and I looked out for similar things and reached similar conclusions about most people, and partly just that reading through the threads I found Matrim's analysis to be reasonably persuasive, so shifted my suspicions to react to that. If I had more time, as well, I like to think I'd do more in-depth analysis that would give me more independent reads, and to highlight more differences between my reads and other peoples.