Young Bard

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About Young Bard

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    Young Bard
  • Birthday 12/29/1999

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    Sydney, Australia
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    Hermit Booklover.

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  1. "Murders?" Thiriel asked, trying to sound shocked. "In Fallion's Tears? How terrible!" Finally. How many years had it been, stuck in the arse-end of nowhere, and with no way to make his name beyond helping chronic gamblers retrieve their ducks. Ducks, for the Lord Rulers sake. You wouldn't have heard of the Lord Heron or any of the other lords ever having to stoop to dealing with ducks now, would you? Noisy, smelly little buggers. But this... this was an opportunity. An opportunity to get noticed by the people who really mattered. Who'd take him away from this stupid, backwash town. Thiriel, determined social climber, is ready to do his part to rid Fallion's Tears of these foul vermin who'd commit such horrendous acts. And to make sure he gets his due recognition at the end of it. (Apologies to Kas for the late signup.)
  2. Yeah, I thought about taking my QF spot and running a different QF instead, but I think I'd prefer not to take the spot right now, if someone else is ready, since I also have RL commitments I need to deal with.
  3. Hmmm... I'm vaguely half-remembering things from 4 years ago, so I'm much less sure now you said that. Maybe I'm mixing Meta up with someone else. I'm looking through old docs and posts now. I'd definitely stand by Coinshots killing inactives as a very valid strategy, though. Yeah, I think I am thinking of someone else, but again, this is just good policy, and is definitely a step in the right direction (though from what I've seen, there's usually some consideration for this already in the current meta).
  4. Ha. Yeah, that was amazing, and slightly terrifying. When I woke up and saw that Illwei had died, I was convinced that we'd lost the game, because surely the rest of us would follow. Still, Doubt and Paranoia are wonderful things sometimes... I basically agree with this. It's come and gone as a problem before, and usually it's been solved just by having a more conscious awareness and calling it out when it happens - in other words, making the targeting of active players more frowned upon in the SE meta. There's an old post by Meta a previous time when this was a major issue which I want to post, but I can't find it, which is annoying me.
  5. Dannex Gears I'm sorry - I considered, but I really can't let you leave these things to chance.
  6. Kings_way, Dannex. I feel I should put something here, but I'm really not sure what, beyond vague paranoid rumblings in the back of my head that this is a terrible mistake.
  7. Ugh. So, it looks like it's down to either Kings or Gears. Kings I've already analysed to death, mainly because he simply doesn't have very much to analyse. So, here's a more in-depth analysis on Gears: Their voting record is... non-existent until this cycle. I dunno, I said this last time, but that feels like a deliberate choice more than anything else. If it were just an Eliminator trying to hide, voting at some point would have blended in more. Now that it's probably LyLo, then my guess is that Gears decided to end his experiment or whatever this was, and try to play more to his wincon. As for his analysis, he usually did a post-by-post commentary each cycle of what happened the previous cycle. A lot of it is just a humourous restatement of what the person said without commentary, which could be a way of trying to appear active without actually contributing anything. The only real analysis post was after Illwei died looking back over her posts, which is fairly ordinary - it clears Liranil and Quinn, fairly conservative judgements which just about everyone reached independently, and doesn't really go beyond that. I would have liked to see something a bit more... ambitious from that analysis, even if it was a reach, but I did the same analysis myself and couldn't find anything, so I can't be too hypocritical. As for the other posts... this is going to sound weird, but they don't sound like a villagers posts, which makes me trust them. They sound like Gears doesn't care about whether or not people even read him as a Villager, which only a Villager could afford to do. Then again, I don't think I've played with Gears before, so that could just be his playstyle as well, and he'd know that as an Eliminator, I suppose. So, yeah. But my number 1 choice would still be Dannex if anyone wants to help me push for a Dannex lynch, and between Kings and Gears, I think my preferred candidate is Kings.
  8. Ugh, I'm kinda peeved by this - this game is about trying to find Elims through analysis. With Connie's no-lying policy, if she said "I'm a Villager" and with us all knowing her policy, it would immediately eliminate her as a suspect, which invalidates the whole point of the game. So I hope Connie does no such thing. Unfortunately, my Dannex lynch hasn't taken off, so I guess I'll switch my vote to Random Bystander, who was next highest on my suspicions list. I feel like I'm really going to regret that, but it's 3:30am and my brain is mush, so... I should sleep and consider my life choices in the morning (or possibly afternoon )
  9. OK, Illwei's flip should give us at least a little bit of information. Quinn and Liranil are both softcleared in my book, since Illwei pushed for both of their lynches pretty hard C3 and C2, respectively. That leaves in our suspect pool: Ash/Flying - I don't remember a ton of Ash's stuff from memory, and they've just been replaced by a pinchhitter, so... yeah, hopefully Flying will be more active so I can get a read on them. Neutral Gears - Hasn't voted at all, but has posted some post analysis each cycle - Ugh. I want to say that's an Elim strat, to avoid attention and scrutiny, but honestly, it's such an obviously deliberately done thing that I'm more inclined to believe it's some experiment being done by Gears this game, and so completely NAI. I'd put him as maybe Slight Elim, if only due to the lack of available alternatives. Connie - So chaotic that pretty much anything they do will be NAI, which may be the entire point. Still, I can't help but feel an Elim wouldn't attract that much attention to themselves, so... Slight Village Dannex - There was something about their vote on Connie last cycle that felt slightly... opportunistic to me. I don't really think that someone who was genuinely looking for Eliminators would seriously think Connie's claim was genuinely suspicious (Dannex pointed out there's no reason for a Villager to claim Elim, but I'd point out there's equally no reason for an Elim to claim Elim either, so that's not a convincing argument). It's entirely possible that Dannex isn't suspicious of Connie, but simply wanted to vote Connie out because of their chaotic playstyle, given this comment, but... frankly, I just came out of the AG where players trying to dictate how others should play SE was a huge frigging issue that became a mess, and the whole thing just makes me really tired, so... I'm going to do my best to give Dannex the benefit of the doubt and hope he's not doing that. Moderate Elim Kings_way - Kings_way is strange, because he's gotten suspicion for this post. And... I kind of agree that it's suspicious, but think it's suspicious for completely different reasons? The argument seems to be "If Kings were really inactive, then how did he know that Orlok was also inactive? Maybe they're just lurking and pretending..." Which... I don't find remotely convincing - First, Orlok had just been replaced by a pinchhitter, so I don't think it takes that much to really figure out why, and even someone with Kings activity level could plausibly know that Orlok had been inactive. Second, if the theory is that Kings is lurking, then surely they'd have stopped lurking to try and save Illwei. That didn't happen, which, if Kings were an Elim, I can only assume means he is genuinely inactive, not pulling off some pseudo-inactive strategy. At the same time, there is absolutely something really weird about that post. I mean... people were joking about Connie being the only Elim, but Kings seems to just miss the joke entirely and try to do some sincere analysis - essentially "Actually, I think it likely if Connie were an Elim, they wouldn't be the only one!" Which... I don't mean to be rude, but seems like something bluntly obvious for a bunch of different reasons. So I don't really know what to make of that post. I know Kings arrived sometime during my hiatus, and it may even be his first game, so that might go a part of the way to explaining it? If I wanted to see a Village!Kings making that post, I'd say you have a player who joins up, feels swamped, wants to contribute but doesn't feel they know how, so makes that post to just dip their toes in and try and act like everyone else seems to be acting. If I were viewing that post from an Elim!Kings perspective, it would be almost the same, except now with even more pressure of sounding normal and blending in while not knowing exactly how. Which means it's entirely plausible to be read both ways. Overall, I'd say I have maybe a very Slight Elim read on them, but I frankly talked myself in and out of seeing that one line both ways that I've gone cross-eyed and have actively ruined my ability to say anything with any confidence whatsoever, beyond hoping they'll post more in future so I can maybe have a bit more to work with next time I analyse them. Shard of Reading - similarly inactive, but I think I've gone overboard enough on the Freudian readings of individual lines for one day so I'll just say Slight Elim, and that might be why there was no counter bandwagon to try and save Illwei. Random Bystander - Illwei voted on Random Bystander towards the end of last cycle, which is... an IKYK. It could be a distancing tactic from a fellow Elim, but it could also be meant to be disguised as a distancing tactic? I do find it interesting that Random Bystander explicitly says they trust Illwei just a couple hours before rollover, but doesn't try to save Illwei, which... doesn't make sense from either an Elim or a Village perspective. Unless... at that point, Illwei had three votes on them, from Matrim, Quinn, and Liranil. All other candidates (I think) had one vote on them. So, if Illwei and Random Bystander were the only Elims online, they didn't have the ability to swing the vote on their own, except onto Connie or Kings, and even then with only a 50% chance of success. So if Bystander were an Elim, and hoping to save Illwei, they could be trying to drum up support for Illwei (specifically, at least one village vote onto a semi-plausible lynch candidate), but leave enough room for distancing if it didn't work? It seems kind of thin, but it's also the only story I can tell which feels like it kinda makes sense. So... Moderate Elim (I might have said Slight Elim, but I've marked three people as that already, and this feels just slightly more substansive than those other reads.) Looking back at the list, I guess that makes my top suspicion Dannex. Oh, and apparently my playstyle is sheepish? I... honestly don't intend it to be, and I certainly hope it isn't my 'normal' playstyle. I guess it's partly Matrim and I looked out for similar things and reached similar conclusions about most people, and partly just that reading through the threads I found Matrim's analysis to be reasonably persuasive, so shifted my suspicions to react to that. If I had more time, as well, I like to think I'd do more in-depth analysis that would give me more independent reads, and to highlight more differences between my reads and other peoples.
  10. OK. I'm stuck. I'll admit, there's a part of me that hoped someone else would have done my thinking for me, but I guess I should probably do some of my own analysis. So, it's a 4-way race between Matrim, Illwei, Liranil, and Quinn. Matrim - Matrim is actually one of my stronger trust reads this game - we seem to have similar reads on people, and he seems to be trying to figure the game out. Moderate Trust Illwei - For how much Illwei has posted, I don't really feel I have a good read on them - a lot of it is NAI. However, the fact I don't have some kind of read with the amount they've posted makes me slightly suspicious. Actually, the post where they run through the different players and think about who the Elims might possibly target feels villagery to me, so that kind of balances it out. Neutral Liranil - If Archer had flipped evil, then Liranil would be one of my top suspicions, but otherwise, I haven't really gotten any bad gut reads off any of Liranil's posts. Their post running through all the players seems slightly manufactured, since I don't really think there's enough there D2 to make a post like that - that said, especially given the sharp decline in votes/direction of this game, I can easily see it coming from a villager trying to find something to say or to pump up the conversation, so... yeah. Neutral Quinn - Quinn was one of my early Elim reads, but I the more I looked at her posts the more I ended up talking myself out of it and deciding Quinn was probably just a Villager with a slightly chaotic playstyle. And a few of her posts since have just felt... kind of similar to how I feel right now, tbh, slightly confused and lost. Neutral as well, I guess. I'm so glad I did that analysis, leaving me exactly where I started. /s Out of the three of them, I guess the strongest case could be made for Quinn, given I *did* find a couple of her early posts suspicious, so maybe my early gut was right and her later posts was a course correction or something. I dunno, I don't feel comfortable with that vote, and might change it if a new candidate comes along, but I haven't got anything better right now.
  11. It was a pokevote before you showed up - here:
  12. Ummm... fair enough, I suppose. If I was trying to distance myself from an Elim, I think I'd have tried to do so in a less embarrassing way that wouldn't have been immediately pointed out, but I know I've certainly voted on people for less during D1. Quinn is probably my biggest suspicion right now - they seemed to vote on me and then Liranil with very little explanation. Though, I don't think I've played with Quinn before, so don't really know their playstyle (the AG doesn't count, because I don't associate playstyles to people when they're using anonymous accounts) - the more I think about it, I can also see Quinn's posts being from a slightly more chaos-gremlin style villager. TUO... I didn't think their initial contradictions about saying there were 4 Doctors and then contradicting that with the Among Us example was alignment indicative - maybe it was even slightly village leaning, since I think an Elim might want to seem more internally consistent. But he reacted weirdly when Matrim called him out on it. I definitely feel something off about his vote on Matrim, who I'd say I think is... slightly in my village camp, IMO, because he seems to be genuinely trying to solve the game. I'm gonna vote on TUO (Random Bystander). I might change my vote to Liranil if the TUO vote doesn't take off, because it could still be informative, but I haven't seen anything in Liranil's behaviour specifically that makes me suspicious, and the main reason for me to suspect Liranil is because of TUO's vote and a potential E/E pairing, in which case, why not just vote on TUO directly?
  13. *blinks* Oops. Sorry Archer, I somehow missed that post. Uhhh... Random Bystander, that sounds like a suspicious name if ever I've heard one.
  14. I feel slightly guilty for people calling it my ruleset - it was Tess who came up with the ruleset, I just helped co-GM it when they ran it. On the upside, I guess that means you can unvote me now, though. Archer hasn't showed up yet, so have a pokevote. Honestly, the only roles I can't see the Elims having is Trapper or maybe Aviar Holder if they're a larger team, everything else seems like a plausible Elim role. As for what ship parts they're likely to target, I'd say the Laboratory or the Brig, since it's their greatest risk in the early game (if the Trapper is still alive and hasn't used their ability in the late game, that's more likely to be a late-game target), the Hospital is a mid/late game target to prevent mass-roleclears, the Main Office might be good if they just wanted to take out as many roles as possible. Crew's Mess depends on how the Elims feel about PM's, but I think is probably a lower priority target, and the Aviar Holding Area... it depends how many Aviar Holders there are in the game - if their kill gets blocked every second cycle, then they'll probably sabotage it, but if there's only one or two Aviar Holders, I think it would probably be lower priority again.
  15. Hmmm... My home internet has been fritzing up lately, and I don't know when exactly it will be fixed... If I were to sign up, I might not be able to get on as much in the first 1/2 cycles... Eh, I'm too curious about this game not to play. Sign me up as Second of Daybreak. (EDIT: Oops, just realised Dawn was taken already.)