Young Bard

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About Young Bard

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    Hermit Booklover.

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  1. ...Well, I'd been leaning towards this having been just a village-village dispute until that vote manipulation. Now, I'm much more inclined to believe Aman's an Elim. I just hope the village still has the numbers to lynch Aman next cycle, though right now, I'm not sure. Sorry El, for not trusting your judgement more.
  2. Hey everyone - checking in as a pinchhitter for Rath - haven't read the backlog yet, but I hope too soon. In the meantime, if anyone wants to fill me in on the most important information, that would be appreciated.
  3. Ah, right. I'd wondered what Kas's mysterious RP references were about. That makes sense. OK, the Elims have to win every cycle from hereon out, or else the village wins. Believe it or not, I'm mostly on the same page as Kas about who the Elims are, except for myself - my suspected Elim team by mid-last cycle was Fifth, Burnt, and to a lesser extent Wonko and Coda (the sudden shift around with Wonko was because of conversations with Kas, who successfully changed my mind on Wonko based on his voting record - going against the Aman lynch Cycle 3 to vote with Coda on Fifth). I still trust Striker, though - if Striker really were one of the Elims, as Kas was suggesting, I can't see a Fifth/Burnt/Wonko team moving a bandwagon off of Striker that they had essentially gotten for free without being implicated, losing a seat and possibly the game, for the sake of getting only a mild trust read in return. I'm OK with voting for one of Striker, Straw, or myself. Further, given that I know I'm under a degree of suspicion myself, I am happy to toss my vote behind any of those three people that people most think I should vote for - for now, I'm placing it temporarily on Striker again, as the candidate that I think most people can agree on as being a villager, despite Kas's final post. Their voting record makes no sense from an Eliminator perspective - they have consistently voted for Aman to be elected, where those votes could have been placed better from an Elim perspective to try and get one of their own in. The one I'm most confused by is Peji - several people including Kas have expressed trust of Peji, and I have no idea why - presumably good PM things happened, which I haven't seen. If there's more to it than that, I'd be interested to hear it.
  4. OK, there's 4 options here: 1) Striker is Village, Kasimir is Elim - 45% odds - I view this as the most likely. The Elims are in a pretty bad spot right now, with only two more Villagers needing to be elected, and more people who are trusted than that, presumably without many people being wrong. As such, they're forced to vote more in a bloc than they'd otherwise like. This assumes an Elim team with Fifth, Burnt, Kas, and with a less certain chance of Wonko and Coda being in the group as well. 2) Striker is Village, Kas is Village - 30% odds - I was originally going to put this much lower - I don't think there's time for the Elims to not vote on of their own in this cycle. But, that could be flipped on us when Kas flips Village, and make out the Striker lynch to be the one that is actually being manipulated by the Elims while giving the remaining Elims a trust read - this again assumes an Elim team of Fifth, Burnt, and possibly Wonko, as well as a couple people not involved in the Kas bandwagon (Coda would be my guess for one, no idea about if there's another.) If this is their strategy, then I played right into their hands, and there's a chance that it will win them the game. 3) Striker is an Elim, Kas is Village - 20% odds - I'm the Honorary Eliminator of the Game, and owe a big apology to Fifth and Kas for my suspicion. 4) Striker is an Elim, Kas is an Elim - 5% odds - We're doomed. But this is incredibly unlikely. This... is going to be an interesting flip, however it goes. I'm increasingly certain that somewhere along the line I've been played for a sucker, but I'm still not sure from who or where or why. We'll see with the new cycle, possibly. :/
  5. I'm worried that there isn't really any opposition to this lynch - either the Elims have already won so they don't need to do anything or they're not prepared to back a lynch of an alternative candidate. Guess we'll see in a couple hours. Also, the other worry is that the Aman lynch is killing discussion, so I'd like @Pejidot, @StrikerEZ, @Coda and @Straw in particular to discuss there opinions on at least one other player - preferably one of Fifth, Kas, Wonko or myself - do you trust/distrust them, and why? Kas - I still have a bit of distrust for him, but a lot less now that the initial paranoia has died down. I still wouldn't be prepared to vote him into the Fellowship at this stage, though. Fifth - I can't really get much of an alignment indication from most of their posts - they generally make sense and have good arguments, but I'd expect that regardless of alignment. I'd be leery about electing them to the Fellowship right now. There's a part of how they play that seems almost... safe? Like they're just going after some of the more obvious suspicions, not really saying or doing anything that would be likely to cause too much controversy or suspicion - I suppose that gives me a slight Elim read on them, though I might revise that later. Wonko - I think I generally lean village on Wonko - defending me in that way last cycle probably isn't likely to gain him village points with a lot of people, and the fact that he did makes me think he's more likely to be a villager just trying to work things out. If I had to vote for someone other than Aman, Wonko would probably have my vote. Next cycle, I intend to go over some of the less active players and see if I can form opinions about them. I started typing out some of that analysis here, but I realised that for several of the players, it depends heavily on how Aman's alignment flips, so I may as well wait to see how that pans out.
  6. Apologies for disappearing. For those who voted for me last cycle, I'm surprised - if I had been in their shoes, I'd likely not have been the candidate they chose. I'm a little suspicious of Coda, who I agree is flying under the radar and seems to be trying to get some village cred. Also, last cycles results are... interesting. They suggest one of three things to me: 1) The Elims decided to lie low and try to get village cred 2) The Elims wanted an alternate candidate lynched, but were trying to lay low and not be seen to be voting in a bloc 3) The Elims are at least partially inactive. (Yes, I know Kas basically did very similar analysis already, but mine is marginally different enough that I felt it worth writing out anyway, if only to get my thoughts on a page.) Personally, I think 2 is the most likely, possibly with a member or two in Category 3. I feel sorry for the Elims if that's the case, especially in a game like this where losing a couple members who might otherwise have been nominated can put an otherwise achievable goal beyond reach. 1 seems unlikely to me, simply because they don't have that much time to wait around and let villagers be elected - this is doubly true when you consider how more information generally favours the village, so it's in the Elims interest to try and ram through as many candidates as possible as quickly as possible - on that, I do agree with Fifth, but I disagree that it incriminates me any more so than any other candidate that voted for Stink C1. OK. Here's the problem I'm having. I want to vote for a player who I've been able to gather some kind of read on, and who's flip will tell me something about other players in the game. But, there's only a few players like that (that list would be Kas, Fifth, Wonko, Aman and myself rn, I think.) And yet, most of those people are people who I specifically have in my suspicions list right now, and the rest are still too valuable because conversation is flagging right now and in some ways we can't afford to send a player who's too active away. To my great surprise, Aman/Yuriel. You've voted well, and if you had been a Corrupted, I'd have expected you to take the opportunity last cycle and get yourself elected, but you chose to help elect Rath instead. I can't reason why you would do that as a Corrupted unless you were just playing next level mind games with us all for the fun of it. Which, if anyone would do that, it would probably be you, but even then I find that extremely unlikely. "Yuriel has my support." Phellom muttered. He didn't look at any of the others - he knew how much of a backflip this was from his firm stance just a short time ago. "I've thought about it, and... I don't think I see a better alternative out of the people here. Perhaps some of you will think I'm one of the corrupted for my backflip. Well, many do anyway, so I don't exactly have much more to lose. So, I guess I'm prepared to vote for Yuriel, who would probably make a good addition to the Fellowship."
  7. Hmmm... Those are good points for why you're not an Elim - in particular the Rube Goldberg part. And, sure, if you want me to, Wibble. (He's probably not going to get elected this cycle anyway, so consider it a placeholder while I figure out who I'm actually going to vote for.) In response to the different options, I think I made the right one - I dislike leaving things to chance, especially when there's some alternatives I like more than others, so a) and c) were never going to happen. b ) was a distinct possibility, but I decided against it mainly because of this line: That line felt weird to me, and I suspected it could be a way of Kas trying to seem like he's already a villager this game without being so overt about it he was likely to be challenged. I mentioned this in several PM's last cycle, including my PM with Kas, so they can confirm that. I said I was more likely to vote for Kas than Aman, but that is very different to saying I thought Kas was the best choice even last cycle, far from it. Combined with the results of today's lynch is why I was quite suspicious of him in my last post. Which left d), voting for Stink, which was the option I went with. I thought I had an hour longer than I did, which was a mistake on my part due to daylight savings shenanigans, so my apologies that it was left so late - now that I know the correct finishing times, future votes will be earlier. As for my reversal of my suspicion of Wibble, I was working off of the assumption that Kas is Corrupted. If that were the case, I struggle to believe that Kas and Wibble would allow themselves to be associated so closely in thread, first by Kas voting on Wibble, then them bandwagonning onto the same candidate, which tied them even closer together in a way that I don't think fellow Elims would do, which is what changed between then and now. Kas has responded well to a lot of the points that made me most suspicious of him, which means that I'm less confident in that assumption now, but I'd still say an E/E pair for Kas and Wibble is extremely unlikely, and if one of them is going to be an Elim, it's more likely to be Kas. (Though V/V is a possibility.)
  8. Hmmm... That's disappointing. With those results, I have a moderate suspicion of Kas after that round. Actually, I'm surprisingly less suspicious of GoWibble - nothing about their language strikes me as suspicious - they voted on Stink mostly randomly, and the rest of what makes them suspicious is ties to Kas. I could see Elim Kas tying themselves to Wibble so that if he came under suspicion Wibble would too, first with voting for Wibble, then supporting Wibble's vote on Stink who Elim Kas would have known to be a fellow Corrupted. On the other hand, if Kas and Wibble were both Corrupted, then they probably wouldn't have associated themselves together so publicly in thread. As Ulmo vanished into the air, there was a brief moment of silence, as people realised the error they had made. Already, they had a Corrupted in the Fellowship, and it would likely not be the last, if they did not choose wisely. "Uhhh... I don't suppose we could, um, undo Ulmo's nomination, or something, could we?" "The needs of this mission are too great." Elrond replied with a sigh. "If we withdrew and replaced nominations, I fear we would still be sitting here when Sauron himself arrives at the Last Homely House. We shall have to go on. Besides, it doesn't appear Ulmo is present for us to inform him he's been withdrawn, nor would he take to it kindly if he were." Phellom thought. In appointing one of their own, some of those corrupted by the ring must have shown themselves. In particular, Aranmir, who made himself out to be so humble and friendly, seemed to Phellom to have played a key role in Phellom's appointment. He would have to be more careful not to let himself get manipulated into making a hasty decision in future.
  9. Oops, I thought I had an hour to make my vote when I only have ten minutes now. Ummm... Yikes. Phellom/Bard, Stink. I don't have any reason to be suspicious of Stink, and how Stink flips will give me info on Kas and Wibble, who I've been trying to figure out. If Stink is good, I'd certainly feel more comfortable in guessing Kas is good too.
  10. You're right, I probably should have specified, but I was trying to quickly jot down a few notes, so what I meant to say didn't come across all that clearly. Sorry about that. That's a good point. But that quickly gets into IKYK territory, since by not doing that you could make this very argument. It also depends on the size of the Elim team, and how many active players specifically you had - if you only had a few active players I could see you needing to avoid that role - we're not likely to appoint a borderline inactive to the council, and needing four seats having one of the active Elim players decide to out themselves to troll the thread could mean that there isn't a fourth Corrupted player that has a decent chance of being elected.
  11. It's less "There's no way I'm ever trusting you", and more "There's no way I'm ever trusting you Cycle One on the weight of your words alone." If both of us are still around 2-3 cycles down the track, and you've consistently voted on people who aren't Corrupted, then that would be enough for me to trust you, for example. In an ordinary game, I specifically try not to lynch people who I have good reason to be paranoid about for this very reason, because I can observe them for a longer period of time before making my decision if I think they're genuinely suspicious or if it's just my paranoia. It just so happens that with the way this game is flipped that happens to work against you instead of for you, which is unfortunate, but I think is still reasonable.
  12. Phellom could hardly believe his ears. He had not yet even spoken at the council, merely listened to Elrond's tale with a small amount of panic, and yet two had already suggested his name to the Council. Maybe Phellom should try not-talking more often. He tried to imagine how he would appear to the other - since his packed clothes had been either filthy or destroyed entirely, he had been given an Imladris garb to wear, a flowing costume that seemed more designed for appearance than function. It's quite possible that he looked almost regal sitting there. He tried to imagine how one of the other Mirkwood elves would phrase it. "If others think me suitable for this quest, then I, Phellom would consider it my honour to accept that position, and take the Ring to Mordor." He paused. Did he just go through that without stumbling or saying something stupid? He stood up, to go and stand before the central table with Elrond as one of the seven who was to go on the quest. As he stood up, he felt the unfamiliar Imladris garment tangle underneath his legs and, unable to correct in time, went crashing to the floor, barely getting his hands out in time to stop his face cracking into the hard stone floor. Blushing furiously, he quickly returned to his seat, careful not to trip over a second time - he could feel a mix of stares and chuckles from the others present. Let's just pretend that didn't happen, shall we? Seriously, people? I say "I'll have plenty of time to post after one final exam I have", and you all think that means it's a great time to vote me out. I'm fine with being elected, just mostly amused by your timing. I couldn't figure out how to fit seamlessly into the RP, but if I had to vote for someone else... Sorry, Aman, but there's no way I'm ever trusting you, which I think you expected. I also would like to hear a little more from Striker (and especially from GoWibble, who hasn't posted yet who has posted one line voting for Stink, presumably because Stink has gone and PM'ed everybody, and GoWibble trusted what he saw in that PM? I'd like a bit more of an explanation than that.) whenever they're able, before I feel any more inclined to trust them, which leaves... no-one who currently has votes on them. Kas would probably be the best choice out of those who have posted in my mind, but paranoia is stopping me well short of saying I actually trust them. It depends a little on GoWibble's alignment - if Wibble is Corrupted, it's more likely Kas is too. If Kas is Corrupted, then I think Wibble is definitely Corrupted as well.
  13. Well, hello again. I'm honestly glad the game got a restart, since a combination of stresses meant I wasn't able to get on for the last game, at all, which then promptly ended (oops) - my final exam is this afternoon, after which I'm free, and can be much more active. 4 seats in the Council... that would have to be quite a large Elim team - even though the early game favours the Elims, that will change quite quickly as players figure out who to trust, and they only need to correctly trust 4 people. 3 months ago Thranduil took Phellom aside after the meeting. "There is much of import you must tell Elrond. You must make sure that Elrond hears of this news if he hasn't already. The spiders in the Mirkwood have increased their activity recently, Orthanc has gone silent, there has increased activity around Minas Morgul and Osgiliath, and there are reports of the Nazgul roaming once again. Can you repeat all that to Elrond?" Phellom nodded. He only had to remember four things. Spiders, Ringwraiths, Orthanc... Wait, what was the last thing again? The mild panic must have shown on Phellom's face must have been visible, because Thranduil sighed. "I shall write it down. Just make sure you don't lose the letter, alright?" Sure. Just deliver a letter. That couldn't be too difficult. "Excuse me Mr Elrond, sir, I have a letter here for you from Thranduil. He is, er, very keen that you know of a number of threats that have been observed around Middle-Earth. Ummm... Just in case, you know, you hadn't heard at you already, not because you're bad at getting news or anything." Phellom rummaged around his pack and pulled out an extremely dilapidated letter. The page, once pristine, was now encrusted in dirt. There was strips down the middle of the page nearly tearing it in three, and there were watermarks on one side. Elrond blinked a couple times. "Um, sorry for the quality, sir. There was a bear of some kind - I think it wanted to go after the supplies in my pack and it tore at the letter in the process, as well as my spare pair of clothes. And then, later, as I was crossing a ford to get here, well, my pack slipped and a lot of my gear ended up soaking wet - I managed to grab the letter before it was completly submerged, though. It's still mostly readable, though, I think. I mean, if you squint really hard at it." Elrond, seemingly lost for words, quietly slipped the parchment from Phellom's hands. It took him several messages to decipher the very brief message, at the end of which he turned back to Phellom. "I thank you for bringing me this news. Much of it I have heard already, from sources who have seen it themselves, but it is still pleasing to hear of the Mirkwood Elves vigil against these threats, and that we can trust on them as an ally." He paused a moment, as if this next part came only reluctantly. "We are holding a council to discuss the cause of these matters this time tomorrow, and how we should respond. As the representative of the Mirkwood Elves, you may join this meeting as their representative." "Yes, uh, Mister Elrond, sir. I look forward to it. Wait, I mean, I am pleased that you would, um, honour me with such a seat in this council, and will make sure I attend this most important occasion." Well, Phellom thought as they left. That could have gone worse. Probably not much worse, but it could have gone worse.
  14. 3 months ago "There is change in the wind - it seems that the time of peace we have seen may be coming to a close. The forces at Orthanc have retreated into themselves, for what purposes no one yet knows. There are reports that dark forces beneath Moria are stirring once more. Near Minas Morgul, the Rangers of Ithilien have seen signs of movement once again. There are even reports the Nazgul may be riding again, Eru pray that it is not so. But even if it were not true, these other reports are enough to confirm it. Dark forces are rising once more." Thranduir spoke quietly, yet his words carried through the room. The elves glanced between one another, uncertain, yet determined. Phellom looked between them, and tried to muster the certainty he saw in the faces of his comrades. Around him, he could see heroes, people who may one day become the stuff of stories, like Beren and Luthien. The kind of heroics Phellom could only dream of emulating. "We must find the source of this unrest, and make sure it does not spread further. This will not be an easy task, and it is possible the fate of Middle-Earth may hang in the balance. I trust all of you - " Was it just Phellom's imagination, or did Thranduil pointedly ignore Phellom when he said that? "- to carry this burden, as true Mirkwood Elves all. For those who would like to volunteer -" "I will. I will help ." Phellom blurted out, then blushed slightly as all the elves turn to look at him. "I mean, if there's anything I can do to combat the dark forces of Middle-Earth, I will gladly offer my services to this, erm, most noble of causes." Smooth, Phellom. Very smooth. Thranduir glanced at him for several long moments. "Very well. Phellom, you will go to Rivendell - Elrond may have more knowledge to aid you in your journey. Also, I have more news which you shall have to pass on to Elrond on my behalf - see me after this." And just like that, Phellom, klutz of the Mirkwood Elves, was on a quest to save Middle-Earth. What could go wrong? Sorry for the late signup, El. I've been tossing and turning whether I should join this game, Fifth's or both for the last week, that left me basically no time to sign up to either. Trope subversion of the klutzy Elf seems too much fun to pass over, though.