I would be happy for a lynch on Steel, but I feel like we need to broaden our discussion a little.
I'm just going to type up raw thoughts as I go through Day 1 (mostly skimming until I get to the part where Road/Guest become the top lynch candidates):
- A lot of jokes and trollish stuff - makes sense given this game and the fact it's Day 1. NAI.
- HPoLT votes on Elandara, is deliberately vague about why. Seems to me like a satirical take on Orlok's style - it made me laugh, as the victim of that a couple times, so I really want to say slight village, even though I probably shouldn't.
- Fura votes Arand, criticising Arand for clearing Elephant too early. The post in question is one line, in which Rand says they don't want to publish their speculations on Elephant's role, which seems fair enough to me. Neutral - I disagree with Fura, but I think it's consistent with Villager behaviour.
- Fura swaps from Arand to Ada, after Gammalv's analysis. NAI.
- Banter and Fun.
- @Araris Valerian votes on Gammalv on a 'hunch' - I'd be really curious to hear some reasoning, or, failing that, whether you have any new hunches. Besides that, it's consistent with what I remember of his behaviour, so NAI.
- Elandera votes on Roadwalker. Just a poke-vote, trying to get Road to be active. We can't clear Elan for this, since it's perfectly consistent with Spambot behaviour to distance, and assume that an actual candidate will emerge, or that Roadwalker will post and the lynch will move elsewhere. (Also, I went through and checked to be on the safe side, and can confirm that Roadwalker was the only person not to have posted at that point, though a few people had posted just one joke line.)
- @Kidpen says he would vote on someone, but he doesn't want to vote when he wouldn't be able to remove it in time for rollover. That seems... suspicious to me. As a villager, if you vote on someone before going offline, you can hope that other villagers that will be online will vote for a better candidate if a better candidate exists. It makes more sense in my mind, IMO, from an Spambot standpoint - he says it would be a 'pokevote', which means that he might have been thinking about putting it on Roadwalker. If he's a teammate of Road, and he's not going to be online to remove the vote later, that's a very good reason not to vote.
- Sapphire adds vote on Roadwalker. Sapphire's confirmed good, so not too much point in me analysing this.
- Itiah adds vote to Roadwalker. Considering that they also suggest that Guest/Road were both Spambots Weekend One, a theory that turned out to be true, Itiah is very strongly village in my mind.
- Arand votes Elandera. This could be seen as an attempt to divert the lynch away from Road? But, it could just as easily be a villager with poor timing. Also, Arand's source of suspicion is Elan 'hard-clearing' Fura too early, when in reality Elan does no such thing (they say they lean village on Fura, but I read that as them trying to post their thoughts as much as they're able to on Day 1, and is certainly a long way from hard-clearing anybody). In some ways, I feel a Spambot Arand would have been able to find a more solid argument against a villager than what they gave, but on the other hand, the number of game relevant posts up to this point is actually quite low, so maybe not. Moderate suspicion.
- CadCom votes Itiah, saying the sudden bandwagon is suspicious on someone who hadn't been online since the first vote was suspicious. I don't think a Spambot would be so overt in defending a teammate, and would find subtler means of trying to get a villager lynched, so I'm actually leaning slight village.
- Ada votes on Elandera (who's now at two votes) to 'make things interesting/add some pressure'. I think one of Ada or Arand would likely be evil and trying to swing the lynch off of, but I really doubt two Spambots would bandwagon together. So, slight Spambot, depending on whether Arand is a Spambot or not.
- I vote for Mailliw.
- Steel votes HPoLT. Claims later this is due to it HPoLT advocating mayoring, when I viewed the same post as just a joke post. I can see this as just a paranoid villager reading through and trying to look for anything that might be a tell, and again, I'd have thought an Elim might have found a better excuse to lynch someone. NAI, but something I might change my mind on when I look back later on.
- Elan defends themself, tries to push for more from people who haven't really contributed. Village gut lean, combined with the fact that I highly doubt the top three candidates for the lynch that cycle were all Eliminators.
- Ada retracts from Elan, but does not vote on a new candidate. Posts votecount.
- Seventh Saint votes Steel, citing Steel's vote as flimsy. I have a hard time reading this - it feels different to Saint's usual style, but they said they're in a rush, so that's probably why. I could also see this as a desperate Eliminator trying to find an argument that sticks against a villager. Slight Spambot, mainly due to timing.
- Maill swaps from HPoLT to Arand. I don't agree with their analysis, but I think it's generally more likely to be a Villager clasping at straws.
- Fura votes for HPoLT, saying that they've posted a lot with very little analysis. Given it was still Day 1, that seems a little unfair, but then again, given that it was still Day 1, I can't expect them to have a much stronger argument. So... NAI? In some ways, I'm tempted to lynch HPoLT, simply because everyone seems to have voted on them, and figuring out their alignment could well tell us a good deal about everyone left alive, even though I'm not that suspicious of HPoLT themselves.
- Guest adds vote to HPoLT - Makes me trust Fura more, since I doubt multiple Spambots would want to form a voting block like that.
- HPoLT votes on Guest for bandwagonning.
- Guest retracts their vote on HPoLT. It's not clear whether they always intended to do that, and it was a part of the joke, or whether they were backpedalling.
- I swap my vote from Maill to Road. 4 votes on Road, 1 on HPoLT, 1 on Guest at this point in time.
- Rand says Guest is a bit off, but does not vote on them. Possibly a distancing tactic, while they discuss whether to bus Guest in the Spambot doc. More likely, I'm tunnelling. NAI.
- Wilson votes on Guest. 4 votes on Road, 2 on Guest. A Spambot Wilson would have to be fairly gutsy to try this right now - with just one vote on Guest (though more conversation), it would still be much easier to swing onto a villager. Then again, it's turtles all the way down, and Wilson seems the type who'd try something like that. Slight village, depending on who else is voting on Guest.
- Steel votes on Guest.
- Things get crazy right about here - this is about the last 15 minutes of the cycle, I think.
- Gammalv will Gammalv. Ties the votes by voting on Guest.
- xxGaea defends herself of being a Spambot by saying they're not a Spambot. Strong Elim, lynch immediately.
- Elephant votes Guest, to mess with Alv. Confirmed good.
- Gammalv will Gammalv. Ties the vote by voting on Road.
- Elephant swaps to Road, to break the tie. Confirmed good.
- Crimsn Chanarach steps in to end the tie shenanigans, voting on Road. If we are accepting the theory that the Elims want to kill off the roleless Eliminator over the one with a role, then this is a slight village post.
- Gammalv votes on Guest, hoping to recreate the tie.
- Elephant retracts from Road in the last seconds of the game, recreating the tie in the last seconds of the game. So, without vote shenanigans, this would have been up to the gods of luck and chance.
- As it is, Itiah's vote disappeared off Road, and Jon's was moved to Guest. So Guest was lynched, 5-3. Unless the Vashikaran can roleblock votes (which I don't think they can, but I'd appreciate clarification), then the manipulations were done by villagers. Which presumably means the Elims were expecting either Road to die, or a draw and a random lynch. Or they were inactive. Which... surprises and troubles me.
Suppose that the elims decided to save their active member over their inactive one, instead of going for the more powerful role. In that case, it would strongly suggest that Crimsn Chanarach is an Eliminator, since they helped to break the tie shenanigans for Road over Guest. However, that's a big if, so I'm put them as a slight Elim, but it's worth looking into (and if the Vashikaran can roleblock votes, then they're probably a villager?)
...Wow, that took a long time. Anyway, hopefully it's worthwhile if it catches us another couple Spambots.
Strong Village: Itiah, [someone who proved they had a village role in PM's but who I don't want to out, and who I don't want converted by the Babaji]
Slight Village: Cadcom, Gammalv/AlVoidus, Elandera, Maill, Fura
Neutral: Wilson, HPoLT
Slight Elim: Adavantos, Seventh Saint, Crimsn Chanarach
Moderate Elim: Rand, Kidpen
Everyone else: Probably haven't posted much, I'd like to hear more from them.
I think I'll vote Arand, since I don't think they've given much of an explanation of their votes last cycle, and I'd like to hear a bit more from them about why they tried to shift the vote away from Road, and tried to cast suspicion on Elandera.