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  1. Past hour
  2. I just realized I didn't retract my vote from Coop, so just In case I have to do that Coop, Maill For the reasons I explained in my huge post above
  3. From my understanding of Rosharan ecology most stone on Roshar comes from the highstorms in the form of crem which latter hardens into stone.
  4. You think that 30% is reasonable lynching odds on D3? Can you guarantee you will be again before rollover to change your vote? I see a "likely" in there...
  5. Could you provide a quote from the book or a WoB that says that? Always love to learn something new.
  6. This is SO cool!
  7. main plot

    Seom put his number in her phone as 'Wolf Person Boss' then showed him her number.
  8. As usual when I make a huge post...about 126147 ninjas during it...and this one I had to go address a semi-emergency at work in the middle of it...so as I'm reading through the posts that have come in since, I want to note CadCom seems to be on a very similar mindset to me here, but I came up with this independently: Steel: D1 starts a bit of IKYK with the elims. "...If I were the SK, I would be making plans about who I think is suspicious....Obviously it won't be clear cut, because I would always make sure my kills would be on someone I didn't express supicion on publically..." If Zane hadn't already thought about this, he was able to at this point. Might have been better to hold onto this theory until you'd had a chance to use it. Now I could easily see Zane having killed someone he (or she...but since it's a male character I'm going to keep using 'he') had explicitly shown suspicion on during one day. And now I'm getting into an IKYK loop. D1 calls out Araris for saying that elims and mistborn may look the same in thread...mostly defending his decision to focus on the mistborn team. I've been mostly unsure about this strategy throughout much of the game. It would be an easy way for an elim to hide and seem to be working in the village's favor. But, it could also be a villager noticing an inefficiency that could allow the MB team to win - basically, everyone is used to searching for elims and are probably better at it than in finding the MB team. So, it actually kind of makes a bit of sense... N1 notes his vote on Araris was '...a bit of a long shot...' More on this later. N1 throws a will of sorts out in the expectation he'll be targetted by Zane that night. SINCE HE DIDN'T DIE, honestly, I think this is a decent argument that he's NOT on the MB team. Basically, if Steel is Zane (or Vin) obviously he's not going to be killed by the MB team. If Steel isn't Zane or Vin, however, it's really easy for Zane to see this and say, "Hmm, I could leave this guy alive and try to frame him as MB because he didn't die even though he's the only one looking for us." D2 analysis post on who may have killed Bard. At this point, either he's contradicting D1 or he realized he set up the IKYK situation I mentioned earlier. Also ends up voting on Rae here. Side note here. For some reason in the main thread, when I'm on page 13 and try to click on other pages, I can't...but I don't have any other issues. Odd. D2 responds to Rae's defense - this post I'm very OK with. To simplify the exchange, "Hey Rae, I think you might be MB." "I'm not" "Umm, that doesn't work" D2 posts that he doesn't intend to see Rae lynched, but is leaving his vote where it is for now (so, it's been mentioned that Steel didn't actually tell people not to vote on Rae. This post actually kind of does that...) https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85159-long-game-55-disquiet/?do=findComment&comment=870842 D2 notes that he won't be back until after rollover (Important to bring up since this has also been a topic of conversation today and I want to make sure the timeline here is correct) N2 freak out about the Rae lynch N2 back tracks a bit on the freak out part, but remains adamant that it was a bad lynch N2 responds to Stick calling out Steel not moving his vote. I tend to take 'I wasn't around' at face value whenever people say this for the most part... More on this later. N2 notes that xino hasn't registered on his radar. (honestly, I feel like xino is usually like that) Notes me as <reading between the lines> a mid-level possibility for MB. N2 notes that the soothe is possibly more likely to be due to the MB trying to pin MB on Maill than actually Maill actually being MB. Side note. Maill responds with "Steel=Zane confirmed." at this point quoting Steel saying "...it feels like the kind of move I would make..." This may be a harmless joke...but actually I find kind of suspicious. AND ONTO TODAY Vote on me to start the day. Notes that this is heavily influenced by PM suspicions. <reading between the lines> Kind of back tracking on his quest for searching for the MB based on this post. After getting called out for smoking Coop, admits to smoker 1 role and used it to solidify CadCom lynch. Notes Elandera as a top candidate for Zane. Notes that he told Maill who he smoked both cycles. *Elandera calls out Steel for the smoking having happened after Steel said he'd be gone for the day* Steel's response seems like a bit of a backtrack here... Next post seems like an overall defense of all that's been going on. The rest of the posts today have mostly been more of the same. Overall, Steel's, somewhat frantic often, tone actually seems fairly genuine. The biggest thing I think people are looking at right now as seriously suspicious is the fact that Steel was supposed to have been gone but submitted an action during that time but didn't move his vote. His single-minded quest to find the MB is an insteresting choice this game, but I wouldn't consider damning at all. Honestly, here's my thoughts on Steel's chances of being on each team: MB: 1% Elim: 30% Village: 69% (Yes, these percentages are kind of stupid...but I just want to point out that considering Steel as MB seems like huge longshot...but I do think elim.Steel is a reasonable possibility) So, I do think this is a reasonable lynch. If there seems to be the potential for an elim hammer when I am heading out for the day (I will NOT be on around rollover today...and will likely only have about 15 minutes available about 2 hours prior to the end of the cycle...so it will be a quick hop in and vote if necessary) I'll move over to Steel. But if it's a runaway, I won't. (And, with I think Devotary's analysis from yesterday's day end, I think I'm on board for the 'we need at least 6, if not 7 people on a lynch to prevent the hammer' So, basically, if we're under that point, I'll move over. Yes, I'm probably overexplaining here...)
  9. "And you are a flower I didn't expect to find this evening." He replied, smirking slightly. "I can see why my Attayl is so taken with you. She has a tendency to follow the stronger ones around like a pup looking for its mothers." Gracefully he changed into a side sway, pulling her with him to make sure she didn't stumble. "The only questions is, what someone capable as you, wants to do with my little one?"
  10. Welp, foiled myself there And I'm glad they can, because that opens up the possibility for iron Feruchemy for some Wax-style steelpushes and ironpulls. Maybe some heavy-metal (hah) obstacle crushing via high mass steelpushes?
  11. Steeldancer Furamirionind I would have voted for CadCom. However, he's expressed willingness to be scanned and prove his role, which means he's probably not a Mistborn or named role, which wouldn't help in determining whether or not CadCom is village. Although I slightly trust Fura, they've been kinda flying under the radar this whole game, not really being investigated, and I have received no claims as to Fura's role. Hmmmm, I might actually vote Stick, kinda to respect Steel's last wishes. I might do that. I might end up switching my vote to Stick. Fura for now.
  12. HHHmmmm. I kinda want this to become the longest thread ever just for the irony.
  13. Ati: Why is it everyone has a problem with Ruin and destruction? Everything has to come to an end. Even Scadrial! (I am several chapters from finishing Hero of Ages and it is exactly what I hoped for!)
  14. It doesn't take a whole lot of activity to submit a kill. Straw made a post during both night cycles for instance, and having time to make a post gives you time to submit an action. I guess you won't be seeing this before the end of the day, but I would like to see some of your methodology and how you eliminated suspects from consideration. Perhaps Kelsier can help out, though 200 words isn't a lot. lt seems that Maill is fairly convinced that Steel is not the Mistborn, likely because a Mistborn!Steel would not have claimed Smoker 1 and proceeded to tell Maill who his smoking targets were, and also because Maill reads Steel's frustration as not having caught Zane, which would be a nonissue for a Mistborn Steel. The roleclaim part is more convincing, especially as Maill and Steel are almost certainly not on the same evil team. That would mean Steel is only evil if he's an elim. One of the bigger pieces of Elandera's case was that it's unlikely that there are two village Smoker 1s, given that there probably isn't too much vote manipulation to protect from. Smoker 1 isn't that great of an elim role either, as only being able to protect two people from vote manipulation is far from guaranteed safety, we've been trying to avoid close lynches that could actually be affected by vote manipulation, and a hammer on Elend wouldn't be timed so as to give vote manipulators time to respond. The other case for elim Steel is that he claims to have supported the CadCom lynch without actually voting for CadCom. At that time, the vote tally was Maill(1): STINK Rae(2): Steel, CadCom Coop(3): Lum, Rath, Straw CadCom(4): Maill, Fura, Coop, HH (In that order) Rath(1): Stick While CadCom was the leading vote at that time, it was far from a dominating lynch. At some point, we should stop getting two village deaths a night, either because the kill roles hit Thug and Lurcher targets, or because the evil teams finally start hitting each other. We're not quite desperate yet, although I suppose you did say you were outlining a worst case scenario.
  15. For those exact reasons you said. Feruchemical zinc does exactly what bullet time is supposed to do, with no more hoops to Push through. The Era 2 primer cubes are able to use feruchemy (when they used iron to decrease the weight of the airship), so it's within the realm of possibility.
  16. Thanks CadCom. I appreciate the effort. But it seems everyone is convinced I am an elim. As a sign of good faith I’ll cloud Lums vote. But I’d encourage Lum to vote on Stick. Stick would you have a problem with that? Because if you do, well, that would be suspicious wouldn’t it? the reasoning behind me thinking Lum is Vin is that she hasn’t actually proved her role a second time yet. I found the soothing too convenient. I find the role claim too convenient. It’s all just too convenient. But I’ll smoke Lumgol and then her role should be more or less confirmed.
  17. Nerin stood and curtsied with the same level of slightly-exaggerated formality, taking his hand. Inside, she panicked. What am I doing? She thought, still feeling the Rioting tugging at her. Rusting Trenton and his rusting piano, I'm going to kill him. The man led her onto the dancefloor, taking her hand with a surety that spoke of long experience with the steps. His hand was firm on the small of her back, and he held her just a bit closer than was strictly proper. The tiny smirk on his lips was perfectly placed. No, certainly not a noble. "You certainly know what you're doing, m'lord," Nerin said as he lead them in a uptempo waltz. Makes one of us.
  18. *wins anyways*
  19. Kinda is memserizing if you upvote it i will delete it
  20. Hm wonder why
  21. 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  22. It isn’t showing up for me.
  23. Yea there was
  24. I was lumping the village lynch and the MB night kill into 1 thing. I just called them "anti-elim".
  25. But there wasn’t a ninja at the end!
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