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Night Nine: I Love You

"So another one of the people who had decided to wake up and start talking again had drawn some suspicious eyes onto himself. It could probably be blamed on his new habit of not talking straight, jumbling words and pronunciation. The other pirates, the few of them that remained, took that as a sign that Manukos was guilty and was nervous. They seized upon him, and began to drag him away to kill him."
Suddenly, the door opened, and Alvron's mother- Wilson- looked in, with a confused expression on her face. "How long is it taking you to read this story?"
Grandpa Steel shrugged. "However long it takes, although most of the pirates have died at this point."
Wilson smiled, and then brought a sheet of cookies into the room. "Here, you guys can eat these. Oh, and Alv, please remember to take care of Rae."
Alvron's expression at seeing the cookies sunk. "Why can't you take care of the chinchilla?"
Wilson glared at Alv. "It's your chinchilla. Make sure it stays alive." And with that, she left the room, closing the door behind.
Alvron sighed, but got up from his bed, grabbing a cookie as he went to go feed Rae, who was happily hopping about in her cage at the back of the room. "As fluffy and wonderful as chinchillas are, they're so much work." Alv took a bite of his cookie, and his face became horrified. "I THOUGHT THEY WERE CHOCOLATE CHIP! They're oatmeal raisin? You've betrayed me!"
Grandpa Steel watched with an incredulous smile. "You'll appreciate someday that everything doesn't need to be packed with sugar to be enjoyable. And, you should be grateful for your chinchilla. Back in my day, we only had dogs and cats."
Alvron rolled his eyes. "You should make Manukos be overwhelmed by a huge number of chinchillas. That would be an entertaining death."
Steel considered for a moment, then cleared his throat of cookie. "As you wish. They dragged Manukos to a secret part of the Prince's zoo of animals that he hunted. Among the most dangerous cages, there was one that seemed to be a carpet. But the carpet moved, with fluffy tails and adorable ears. It was a cage full of chinchillas. The pirates placed hay and carrots on Manukos, then pushed him in. Manukos looked at the chinchillas on the floor, but then realized the cage had much more depth to it than he had originally realized. A... wave of chinchillas approached. Manukos's scream of a mix of delight and horror only lasted a moment before the chinchillas descended upon him, muffling it with their wonderfully fuzzy bodies. In another place, Reginald Canuk passed away from his wounds."
Alvron laughed. It was a laugh colored a bit evil, but also genuine. "What a way to go." He finished feeding Rae, then let her out of her cage, as it was dusk outside, and Rae would want to explore. 

Manukos (5): Sart, Elandera, Fifth Scholar, Mr Doctor, Walin

Fifth Scholar (1): Straw

Elandera (1): Manukos

Manukos has been lynched! He is Mostly Dead.
Dalinar Kholin has died! He was a Pirate. 

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)  Prince's Guard

3. Manukos Mostly Dead

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)  Pirate with a Parrot

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle)  Spaniard

7. Drake Marshall Pirate

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins) Pirate with a Parrot

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q) Pirate with Rum

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo) Pirate

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk) Pirate

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund) Pirate with a Dagger

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val) Man in Black/ Pirate

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)  Prince's Guard

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Elandera

24. Burnt Spaghetti

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)  Pirate

27. Rathmaskal (Rath) Pirate with Rum

cya_1530399600.png

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As you wish, Steel, I shall return to activity. In less than 24 hours, I will be able to return to my usual level of analysis! I’m very glad I got over this hump of inactivity. 

As a side note, my top three suspicions are now in no particular order Burnt, Straw and Elandera. Once I get more time I’ll look at the three of them some more.

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Let's plan for both outcomes.

If Manukos flips Elim: I suspect Walin or Burnt. Burnt slightly more, as Walin finally placed a vote. However, that could have been a bus.

If Manukos flips Village: We're in trouble. I would then doubt that both elims are among those who didn't vote on Randuir. In that case, I would suspect Straw. He's the one with the worst alibi, since he was just voting in self-defense (And yes, I am aware how hypocritical that sounds)

I'm worried, based on the bandwagon that formed, that the later will occur. Here's hoping I'm wrong though.

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I'm with Fifth on this. I shall finally be able to do a proper analysis tomorrow. For now, some RP because it takes way less effort.

--------------

"You said we could kill someone," say Kay with scathing derision.

"And we did," replied Lily calmly. 

"Not really. He's only mostly dead," said Amy.

"And by chinchillas at that. I admit it's... unique. But it wasn't very dramatic. Not like fire."

"We're not setting anyone on fire," said Lily.

Kay frowned, her eyebrows knitting, but she remained silent.

Lily took control again, her face returning to a stony calm. "Besides, he may not have even been the right target. We may have just killed yet another ally."

"You're the one that couldn't decide," said Amy. 

"Shut it before I get back to the fire swamp," said Lily.

That was the only thing she could say to control them. After several failures in finding the Prince and Count, her personalities decided to return and mock her. They were being incredibly unhelpful. "Who do you suggest we kill?"

"Burnt," said Kay immediately. "We could make her name a little more honest."

"We are not using fire, for the last time. But Burnt is worth thinking on".

"What about Straw?" offered Amy.

"Possibly."

"I think we should kill Mr Doctor," said Drusilla in a slow drawl.

Lily froze. It was a bad sign if Drusilla was back. There was a reason other personalities had emerged and taken over. Drusilla was insane. Homicidally insane.

"Mr. Doctor has been cleared. He's one of the most trusted," Lily said cautiously.

"Which is why we can't seem to find the real Prince," said Drusilla. Her eyes were cold and dispassionate. "The real Prince is hiding among those who are trusted."

"No, I will not let you--"

"You know it's true. You can feel it."

"No. We can't." Lily took a deep breath and with all the inner strength she could muster, she shoved Drusilla back into a locked part of her mind.

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Since I’ve had done some form of discussion on all of the active players except for Elandera, I decided that I might as well do one.


Quote

At the time of the Rath vote, I thought I would have a bit more time to go back and analyse their posts to figure out what who they most suspected and who most suspected them to hopefully get some clues. Unfortunately, I have been incredibly busy working more days in a row than I expected. Also, I don't think I ever said it would give information about Fifth's alignment, just his sanity. I've generally always considered him village.

Number two is closer to why I voted on Rath. I didn't fully believe they were elim, but I hadn't had very good suspicions so far. I was willing to trust Fifth who had previously led a successful lynch. Unfortunately, it was not successful.

 - Elandera, here

Alright, that’s reasonable. I was also guilty of dropping off in activity a couple of Cycles ago.

Given this, all of your posts seem fine to me. Other than the contradiction that I stated (which you've cleared up), you’ve been relatively reasonable and consistent. The issue that I have is your voting pattern. I’ll have a look at it.

 

Cycle 5

Walin (not lynched)

Nothing really wrong with this. You had entered the game recently at this point, and you had reasonable suspicions. It’s notable that you ignored the Rand lynch, though. I would have expected some acknowledgement of it, but since it was early on it really doesn’t say much. You didn't have the built-up suspicions that we did.

 

Cycle 6

Doc12 (lynched)

This started off as a poke vote but ended up being the closest thing to a unanimous vote that we can really expect, and against a Villager. You stated why you believed that the vote should stay, but while you had greater suspicions of Jondesu, you didn’t move the vote. Perhaps because Jon wouldn’t have been lynched, but perhaps to make it look like you weren’t tunnelling Doc.

 

Cycle 7

Jondesu (lynched)

Voting on your previously stated suspicions, I imagine. Reasonable. Voted immediately, which is notable but not strange because you had mentioned previous suspicions, and you could have also been trying to galvanise the discussion, which is commendable.

 

Cycle 8

Burnt Spaghetti (rescinded)

Rathmaskal (lynched)

The vote on Burnt was a poke vote, which was rescinded when she responded to the poke. Reasonable. The vote on Rathmaskal was to support Fifth’s theory, apparently trusting in Fifth and to learn if he was insane or not. That statement implies that Fifth is being strongly read as Village (in that, Rath's flip would not significantly change how you thought of Fifth's alignment), which is notable. And determining Fifth’s sanity probably isn’t worth spending a player on unless there were other suspicions. But the bandwagon theory explains this.

 

Cycle 9

Manukos (rescinded)

Fifth (rescinded)

Burnt Spaghetti (rescinded)

Manukos (lynched)

This is the weird Cycle. Three rescinded votes, the first of which had no reasons (but stating that analysis would be turned down for a while), the second being a poke vote in a time when poke votes are generally rarer (or so I’m told), the third being on Burnt again, and again with no reasons. Not a poke this time, though. You never mentioned whether you came up for reasons behind your gut suspicions, even after the fact.

The last vote goes onto manukos, after Sart has voted that way. Granted, Sart’s post was persuasive, but it might also look like you’re trying to challenge the Fifth Scholar vote. Yes, Fifth could be acting too crazily to be an Elim, but I have to consider it. Or it was attempting to pocket a trusted Villager, being Sart.

The saving grace here is that I believed that manukos was worth lynching. I can understand that someone else would believe the same. If he turns out to be an Elim, I would consider you virtually cleared, because bussing a teammate at this point in the game is suicide.

The stranger thing is the fact that you jumped from manukos, and then back again. If my read was off and manukos is a Villager, then that could be seen as trying to garner support for a manukos lynch, changing to a different target when it didn’t work, and then changing back once someone else was willing to vote manukos and you could get a lynch. However, that approach seems really, really sloppy. Why vote early, and not wait, which would be subtler and avoid suspicion? The only options then are that you’re doing a level of IKYK that’s extremely risky for this stage of the game, or you’re genuinely unsure. At this stage, I believe that the latter is far more likely than the former. I don’t like the target-jumping, but I can’t suspect it because the reasons for it that I can think of are inconceivable.

 

Now looking at the future: if manukos flips Elim, then misdeeds are forgiven, and I move you to soft-cleared. As I said, there's really no way that an Elim would bus a teammate at this stage. It’s as simple as that.

However, if manukos is Village, then all of your votes that resulted in lynches have been on Villagers. Perhaps that’s just bad luck, because the ‘more obvious’ Elims were lynched before you arrived. But at this point, I’m not willing to use bad timing as an alignment indicator. As with my suspicions of Fifth, I won’t be able to ignore someone who acts strangely regarding a lynch that hits a Villager.

 

Just like with Fifth, I feel like you’re a Villager, but your actions could make me question that. It’ll mostly come down to how manukos flips. Any thoughts on this are welcome. If you want to clarify anything, please do. I haven’t gone completely Fifth Scho—I mean, I haven’t gone completely insane quite yet.

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4 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

I haven’t gone completely Fifth Scho—I mean, I haven’t gone completely insane quite yet.

You’ll get there. The cracks in your sanity are slow to appear and even slower to widen, but there’s no way to push them back together into the whole they were.

Your thoughts on Elandera are interesting—I hadn’t thought to check her voting patterns, to be honest, as my suspicion of her was based mostly on the fact that I felt like she was trying to pocket me. My suspicion of Burnt is more nebulous, and I’ll look into it more once I know how Manukos flips, and my Straw suspicion is basically a toned-down version of my paranoia that the Elims are distancing/bussing. I really want to kill Straw just because he’s gone 9 cycles in an LG without being mislynched, which is downright inconceivable :P 

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And there's the logical suspicion I've been waiting on. However, I am in no way an eliminator.

Each of my votes, aside from my vote on Walin and Rath, have come from analysis of their interactions with known elims, voting patterns, and gut feelings. Unfortunately, they've all been way off. It's why I chose to follow the Rath lynch, since obviously my opinion wasn't accurate.

As for my vote on Walin, as I've said before, I was trying to review days of posts on mobile with intermittent service on my way home from a camping trip. I didn't quite see the need to vote on Rand or Straw, so I voted on Walin. If I was elim, trying to save Rand, why wouldn't I have voted on Straw? If I wanted to distance myself from Rand, why wouldn't I have bussed him?

Last cycle is a bit more difficult to explain. I still suspect Manukos of being elim. My vote on him was based more on gut reads since I haven't had a ton of time this week to do analysis on him or his predecessor. I second guessed myself with Fifth's vauge and suspicious post that almost seemed like he was elim. I switched my vote to him to see what his response would be, but didn't expect others to join in because he'd been long cleared for leading lynches on elims. I didn't really explain that well the last time because I was short on time. It was easier to just say it was a poke vote, because that was part of it. I second-guessed my second-guess and reminded myself Fifth had been cleared. The sudden bandwagon scared me a bit too, because I didn't want to accidentally lead another mislynch. So I switched my vote. 

I debated quite a bit between returning to Manukos and voting on Burnt in an effort to save Fifth. I decided saving Fifth was more important than going with my top suspicion, because I think keeping confirmed villagers is more important because it gives us know allies. It helped that Burnt has been on my suspicion list for a cycle or two already.

Once someone else voted on Manukos, I gladly switched, because as I said, he has been my top suspicion. 

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

You’ll get there. The cracks in your sanity are slow to appear and even slower to widen, but there’s no way to push them back together into the whole they were.

Your thoughts on Elandera are interesting—I hadn’t thought to check her voting patterns, to be honest, as my suspicion of her was based mostly on the fact that I felt like she was trying to pocket me. My suspicion of Burnt is more nebulous, and I’ll look into it more once I know how Manukos flips, and my Straw suspicion is basically a toned-down version of my paranoia that the Elims are distancing/bussing. I really want to kill Straw just because he’s gone 9 cycles in an LG without being mislynched, which is downright inconceivable :P 

Sorry if it feels I'm trying to pocket you. :P But you and Mr Doctor are about the only active near-cleared villagers we have left.

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Day Ten: Sportsmanlike
Rae the chinchilla had grabbed a Stick and was running around the room with it. Grandpa Steel polished off the oatmeal raisin cookies- Alvron had refused to eat any more of them- and looked at Alvron. "The pirates now had a chance to finish the game with honor, polishing off the Guards. In a quiet room in the palace, Miracle Max ate all of his pills in an attempt to stay alive- and ended up killing himself. The Guards had grabbed a victim- a leader among the pirates, one of the pirates who had been key in killing off their fellow guards. They decided to toss him in the same cage as Manukos had been tossed in- only a skeleton of Manukos remained behind. Vicious little creatures, those chinchillas were. And with Max having overdosed on miracles, death was inevitable, and no hope remained. And so, the pirates banded together, and began to discuss- a discussion that would determine the fate of Florin and Gilder."
Alvron yawned. "Finally, they're awake and talking. Well, whoever loses better be sportsmanlike about it. We don't need anyone throwing rocks at people without a chance of fighting. Even if the pirates have been fighting this entire time." He grabbed Rae, and put her back in her cage. "So were those chinchillas like piranhas? If only you were a meat eating machine. You would be so much cooler."
Grandpa Steel grimaced. "Next time, remind me to read you a more tame book, and actually read the real end of the book. I'm not sure I like how this format encourages your bloodthirst."
Sart has been killed! He was a Pirate with Rum. 
Manukos has died! He was a Pirate with a Dagger.
Elbereth has died of inactivity! She was Miracle Max. 

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)  Prince's Guard

3. Manukos Pirate with a Dagger

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)  Pirate with a Parrot

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle)  Spaniard

7. Drake Marshall Pirate

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins) Pirate with a Parrot

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q) Pirate with Rum

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo) Pirate

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk) Pirate

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund) Pirate with a Dagger

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val) Man in Black/ Pirate

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)  Prince's Guard

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace) Pirate with Rum

23. Elandera

24. Burnt Spaghetti

25. Elbereth (Elenta) Miracle Max

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)  Pirate

27. Rathmaskal (Rath) Pirate with Rum

red_1530572400.png

Today's fashion is sportsmanship. Do with it as you wish. Heh, I did that one on accident. 

Edited by Steeldancer
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Yay, thank you Elims!!! You finally killed Sart. Now I can focus on actual suspects. My apologies for my somewhat unwarranted paranoia, Sart.

@Steeldancer Since Max can no longer revive people, is there a particular reason people are still spending time as mostly dead?

And now, I have to choose. There are seven people. 

2 hard-cleared 

Snipexe, myself

1 village read 

Mr Doctor

4 others

Burnt, Elandera, Walin, Straw

It would be terribly unsportsmanlike for me to swing a lynch onto Mr Doctor today, considering I haven’t really voiced any suspicions of him all game, and that he’s my top non-confirmed village read. I’ll admit I am less sure about him, particularly given his voting during the last few cycles (though we’re all guilty on that count), but I’m certainly not going to lynch him while other options remain open.

Our four options, in Sart-summary form:

Elandera: The active one

Straw: The quiet one

Walin: The not-voting one

Burnt: The PM one 

I will strike Walin from this list. While I do not approve of his stance on voting, I do not believe it is alignment indicative from him, and if he is an Elim his voting should be obvious enough if/when it changes to catch him. In addition, he just feels like too easy of a lynch target, similar to Manukos. The other three are the people I’d like to see lynched. Unfortunately, I can only kill one of them each cycle. The utilitarian part of me wants to have me, Doctor, Snip and Walin vote to kill one of the people in that group every day, until they’re all dead and the game is (hopefully) won (assuming my reads on Doctor and Walin are correct, which given my history...unlikely). However, such a strategy is eminently impractical, given that it requires everyone to do the same thing which is no fun. I will vote on Elandera for now, pending a more detailed review of the three in my suspicions list. 

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From my standpoint, my suspicions are down to Straw and Burnt. Burnt more so, so I'll vote on her for now. I promise I will provide a better analysis of why later, but for now I'll leave you with this:

To me, Snipexe and I are the only hard-cleared. Fifth and Mr. Doctor are soft-cleared. That leaves me with Walin, Burnt, Straw. And I'm with Fifth on this one, Walin's actions are not very eliminatory.

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Whoever you find suspicious, of course. I’m just remarking that since both of you voted on Burnt, and all three of you are on my suspect list, it’s making me paranoid and not want to lynch Burnt, which is bad because one of you might just be an intuitive villager instead of an elim. Second, in the tags it says “the final showdown approaches”. Am I reading too much into this, or are there three Elims left? Because if so, we’re at LyLo. 

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Close to LyLo is accurate. We have seven people alive, only one confirmed good to everyone. If we mislynch, we're down two people by the next day cycle. That leaves five, only three presumably being village. That would definitely be LyLo. We need to make sure this vote is not wrong.

I'm also worried about Straw joining my lynch. It tells me either he's bussing (bad idea at this stage), he's an elim joining a lynch against a village in an effort to make me seem more elim, or one of the people I trust is an elim.

Edited by Elandera
Completed LyLo thoughts
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13 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Elandera: The active one

Straw: The quiet one

Walin: The not-voting one

Burnt: The PM one 

I'm in agreement with this. If we're sure that one of the remaining Elims is an active, Elandera might be the best target for that fact. But then again, I'm not really in favour of lynching someone for activity after we've just been lynching people for inactivity. I think that the whiplash might kill more people than the inactivity filter has :P.

Additionally, what are your thoughts on near-exclusive activity in PMs? I'm not sure that I like it too much.

 

13 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

It would be terribly unsportsmanlike for me to swing a lynch onto Mr Doctor today, considering I haven’t really voiced any suspicions of him all game, and that he’s my top non-confirmed village read. I’ll admit I am less sure about him, particularly given his voting during the last few cycles (though we’re all guilty on that count), but I’m certainly not going to lynch him while other options remain open.

Well, I'm not about to complain. 

 

13 hours ago, Elandera said:

From my standpoint, my suspicions are down to Straw and Burnt. Burnt more so, so I'll vote on her for now. I promise I will provide a better analysis of why later, but for now I'll leave you with this:

To me, Snipexe and I are the only hard-cleared. Fifth and Mr. Doctor are soft-cleared. That leaves me with Walin, Burnt, Straw. And I'm with Fifth on this one, Walin's actions are not very eliminatory.

I may end up poking you for these more detailed reasons, because with three actives we need your analysis. It may also be a deciding factor in my vote, both from how much I agree with your justification, and by what it indicates about you.

 

13 hours ago, Straw said:

Now that my game is over, I can now (hopefully) pay more attention to this game. ^_^

I'm going to place a vote on Burnt. @Burnt Spaghetti tell me why I shouldn't vote for you. :P

A weird vote, but not necessarily out of character. Is this a poke? Do you agree with the arguments of anyone so far? Do you have any additional reasons of your own? Losing Sart loses us another voice in the discussion, and we could use yours.

 

For the reasons that I stated last Night, I’m tempted to vote on Elandera. If we’re as close to LyLo as you guys think, then I feel like acting on suspicions and information is better than lynching to get more data.

However, it’s a bit of a gamble. If we get to LyLo next Cycle with more information, there might be enough to identify at least one Elim. And there’s also a chance of this lynch hitting an Elim, which is best-case, but I don’t think that it’s feasible to rely on that.

Let’s break down the players. Maybe this will change my mind.

 

Walin

Incriminating Factors: Has been trying to be neutral, but has started voting in the later stages of the game when the killing streak against Villagers started.

On Walin I have very little. I don’t like that he’s started voting just when Villagers start dying more, but it’s also not necessarily AI. I would expect the Elims to be more active when there’s more information and discussion being thrown around, so as to ensure as many early lynches as possible. Starting to participate in mislynches right now is too careless, especially when the mislynches haven’t come down to one or two votes.

 

Snipexe

Incriminating Factors: Did some strange tunnelling against Sart and Fifth, and never really stated why.

Cleared for being the Giant (and as an interesting note, the last non-Elim role left in the game). I would really like Snipexe to contribute, because having him cleared is a pretty nice resource for the Village.

 

Fifth Scholar

Incriminating Factors: Tunnelled hard against Sart and Rathmaskal, leading to the lynch of the latter when both were Villagers.

Fifth Scholar is a tricky one. I really don’t like how he came out of nowhere with his lynch on Rathmaskal, and I wouldn’t put it past him to know how to use the power of a bandwagon to get a mislynch and then use his accumulated reputation from earlier in the game to pass it off as a mistake and having a bit of fun. However, his post in agreement with my bandwagon theory makes me disagree with that theory. If he didn’t want to admit that he’d been spotted, I would expect him to either ignore or debunk my theory. Unless he wanted to pocket me or something similar. Yay, IKYK. But his behaviour earlier in the game seems to vindicate him enough.

 

Straw

Incriminating Factors: Poor voting pattern all game.

I’m tempted to write Straw off because I can’t really analyse much. It’s just a voting pattern with virtually no content, and it’s hard to determine motive, much less alignment, out of that. But Straw assisted in the Rand lynch, so I suppose that’s another point for him. However, even though I can’t conclude much from it, I can’t ignore a bad voting pattern, and so Straw remains on the suspicion list.

 

Elandera

Incriminating Factors: Consistently lynched all of the Villagers in the last Cycles. An odd voting pattern last Cycle.

Elandera is very active, which is good. But there’s a disconnect between her posts and her votes. When I read her posts, she seems honest and Village-like. Whenever she is poked to clarify, she provides good and logical reasons, and her analysis has also been useful. However, every vote bar one has resulted in a lynch, and every lynch has been a mislynch. I simply cannot ignore that, no more than I can ignore Fifth Scholar’s bandwagon that resulted in a lynch on Rathmaskal. The difference between Elandera and Fifth, however, is that Fifth has redeeming factors from all through the game. Elandera does not.

 

Burnt Spaghetti

Incriminating Factors: Only really active in PMs, where posts cannot be easily dissected. Apparently had some disagreements with Elandera which occurred in PMs, but never amounted to anything.

Burnt Spaghetti is hard to pin down as well. I’d put her in the same boat as Walin and Straw, where she hasn’t done enough to make me trust her, or even to balance out my suspicions. PMs are enough to avoid the inactivity filter, but not to avoid suspicion. When someone doesn’t want to share their thoughts with the thread, I have to assume that they have something to hide. Burnt hasn’t really done anything to vindicate her.

 

No one is particularly offending, and that’s irritating, because I don’t like lynching people whom I’m not sure about. But by this point, it makes sense that I don’t have anything conclusive because anyone who was offending would have been lynched long before now. So, I’m left with a bunch of people who aren’t incriminating, but some are less trustworthy than the others. In order, from most to least trustworthy:

  1. Snipexe
  2. Walin
  3. Fifth Scholar
  4. Straw
  5. Elandera
  6. Burnt Spaghetti

Elandera and Burnt are close, but Burnt is lower because she hasn’t provided very much, and I can somewhat forgive Elandera for participating exclusively in mislynches because there weren’t any other lynches on Elims for her to participate in.

 

I’m not voting yet, but when it comes it’ll likely be on Elandera or Burnt. I’m hesitating because of the bandwagon that might form if I do vote, and I want to hear other thoughts on what I’ve said before it looks like I’m sure about my vote, because I really am not sure at the moment. It wouldn't be very sporting to imply otherwise.

 


As an aside, @Steeldancer I'm really enjoying the little writeups at the start of every turn. It's a nice piece of entertaining levity as I mentally prepare myself for trying to kill someone.

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Bleh.

 

Im still really paranoid that the last elims are snip and elandera. Because if they are? Well. Rip us and good job them.  But. But. I think theyre good. Well. At least. I think snip is. I think.

But then i keep thinking one of the actives has to be evil and what if thats fifth? Its not unheard of for elims to tunnel elims. Ive certainly done that myself with a fellow elim before- we tunneled each other and hey, worked pretty well for distancing.  Ah but then again. Mr doctor. Someone ive not paid much heed to tbh.good analysis, seems fine, havent stopped to think about their alignment. What if its themmmm.

But then what if its not an active and we're all confused pumpkins!

I dunno what if what if. 

All i know is we're running out of time and the lynches have to count. Information must be learnt. -And that im paranoid and probably not much good for discussion!

Oh and @Straw, you shouldn't lynch me because 1- mislynch and 2- dont think you'll learn much sorry- there are better targets for learning stuff than me i believe

Hm on the topic of lynching for learning, i think if i was to lynch someone on the basis of information, id lean towards elandera tbh. Im curious about all the village lynchings, being one of the people to not vote on rand- was that just a villager not being sure or trying to offer a target thats not rand. And not straw either.... hm  new pet theory! (Bear with me and my insanities okay? :P) straw and elandera are evil. People vote on rand, he offers straw as a feasible alternative. Maybe the elims were okay with losing one of their own at this point and straw had been poofy apparently around then and he's not the most active of players. So if the elims are going to lose one of their own,  the one less active and less likely to lead village astray would hurt them less.  And if elandera was evil as well, well, drake had offered walin as a willage alternative! So elandera goes "hm i agree! Imma vote on them too!" And puts a vote on walin too. Drake later removed that vote too. But for a while the options were all fair contenders for the lynch. Now maybe im insane and looking too deeply into this but. Hey. Its not impossible.

 

(Heh. At this rate you guys can change my definition from 'the PM one' to 'the paranoid one' :P )

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Here's my long awaited analysis on Burnt/Mark IV. I also decided to do a bit of analysis on Straw since his voting this cycle has seemed a bit off to me. Italics are for what other people said to/about them, bold is my own analysis.

Burnt/Mark IV analysis:

C1

Poke votes Walin

    Has joking conversation with Straw over voting based on order of list (carryover from a past game) Could be distancing from Straw if both elim

    Responds to Elenion’s post about working with Miracle Max, suggests the Max should take a more chaotic neutral stance Could be distancing from Elenion

    Comments on Straw posting vote count

    Responds to Devotary regarding Max and the order of creating pills

    Calls out Araris for apparent contradictory statements regarding D1 votes with little justification (only comment during the whole elenion, araris, bugsy debacle) Could be distancing from Elenion who was advocating for Araris

 

C2

    No posts or mentions in daytime If elim, wasn’t there to help save Elenion

    Fifth mentions Mark has been quiet, makes same analysis as above and says it could be elim!Mark appearing as if he’s contributing without actually saying anything

    Responds to Fifth saying he’s been busy IRL, and agrees with Fifth’s assessment Could be reverse psychology

 

C3

    No posts of mentions in daycycle

    Randuir asks Mark who he’d lynch if he had absolute power to lynch one player. Mark does not reply

 

C4

    No posts of mentions at all If elim, wasn’t there to help save Bort

 

C5 - Burnt replaces Mark

    Says hello, says they’ll be reading posts for a while

    Says they’ve skimmed through posts, but doesn’t have reads. States they’re habitual lurker but active in PMs where they mostly get reads, and that they’re unlikely to vote unless they’re very sure, mentions Straw v. Rand lynch All of this was pretty NAI

 

C6

    No posts or mentions in daycycle

    Asks if we should re-look into Drake’s suspicions on Walin after Drake flipped village If elim, could be attempt to point towards another mislynch

 

C7

    No posts or mentions

 

C8

    Mr Doctor point out they haven’t said much, looking into following Drake’s suspicion on Elim, and places her mostly village read

    I place vote on Burnt in effort to get her to comment

    Responds to Mr Doctor and me, saying they’ve been more active in PMs and gives gut feelings. Places Straw under “Eh seems fine” If both are elims, this could be her trying to give Straw a bit more credibility since she hasn’t been under any suspicion

    I respond to her read of me by pointing to last comment in PM (This conversation had mostly been about who we thought to be elims. She had doubts about Sart, Snipexe and Walin. Asks me if I think elims would try to get pills from Max. I said probably, but Elbereth seemed inactive, which I thought was sad because a chaotic neutral player could be fun. I said I was also keeping an eye on Sart and Snipexe. Burnt said Elbereth wasn’t totally inactive because she was responding to her PMs. Burnt asks why Fifth was confirmed good, I said because he was key in Randuir lynch and had pushed for it for at least one cycle before it happened. Here’s the part where she was suspicious of me: Snipexe had claimed Giant to me in the last part of the cycle. I knew Burnt had contact with Elbereth and I asked if she’d given pills away, but was pretty vague about it. Burnt gave a vague answer in response. I said I was asking for the giant who though he’d be killed by elims. That’s the response that made her feel a bit better about me, I’m guessing. Looking back on this, I find it interesting that Burnt had known Elbereth’s plan to stop giving away pills due to her relative inactivity. It could have been elim!Burnt attempting to get pills from Elbereth to help her team

    Mentions Snipexe claiming giant, but says they’re prone to paranoia and suggests doing a test lynch This seems like a bad move for an elim, because no one had countered Snipexe’s claim. However, it could be another IKYK

    Says there’s no harm in prodding those who are less talkative

    Mr Doctor says they’re the more active of the “sleepy ones” because they’ve offered some to discussion but is primarily active in PMs

    RP about pinata plushies

    Mr Doctor aks who they’d add or remove from the Hmm list with recent developments

    I lean towards burnt without anything substantial. States I’d prefer a Manukos lynch

    Dalinar states suspicion of Burnt because of suggestion to lynch giant Should be noted Dalinar gets killed by elims this cycle

 

C9

    I switch vote from Fifth to Burnt, saying there was nothing substantial but a gut feeling that I’d figure out later (what I’m doing now)

    Sart asks how Burnt will defend herself being tied for the lynch

    Responds to question of why they suggest giant lynch, saying they didn’t think of how it would be a waste and that they were paranoid it was an elim trying to draw out the real giant. They said they wouldn’t push the lynch but would get suspicious if the giant goes unkilled during the night for too long. I find this a bit odd because it could be elim!burnt setting up a reason to mislynch Snipexe. However, that might now work well because the giant can’t die to lynches. Suggests suspicion of me and fifth because we could be elims leading to mislynches, but is not sure either way

    Sart suspects Walin or Burnt if Manukos flipped elim

Straw analysis:

C1

Poke votes Mr. Doctor

Has joking conversation with Mark over voting based on order of list (carryover from a past game) Could be distancing

    Posts vote count

    Asks question about Six Fingered Count being killed by Spaniard then being revived by Max Not likely Count, unless it’s one layer deep into IKYK

    Responds to CadCom’s vote for above post, stating if he were elim he would have asked in PM Again, could be use of IKYK

    Tags Steel asking about secret roles, etc. for Roadwalker

    Elenion asks why CadCom would vote on Straw if they have no clue about his alignment. Could be pocketing

    Stayed out of elenion, araris bugsy debacle

 

C2

    Suggests attempting to protect Spaniard Coule be elim attempt to get Spaniard to claim (see previous IKYK of Six Fingered Count)

Agrees with Bugsy in suggesting Elenion is MiB based on defense of Araris Could be elim trying to help protect teammate by making him appear very village, using another village’s logic

Asks HH how he knew Roadwalker’s Max claim was fake

Clarifies suggesting how to protect Spaniard is by finding way for him to safety pass scans to village

Responds to Fifth calling him out for immediately drawing line to Len as MiB, saying it was based on Bugsy’s statement (Bugsy had withdrawn suggestion, stating they likely would have died if Len had been MiB)

Asks Elbereth if they plan to keep reviving after win-con is complete Could be another IKYK situation, elim asking in thread because it would seem a bad idea for elim to fish for how many times they’d have to kill people for them to stay dead

Randuir casts vague suspicion based on how Straw’s posts have been NAI Could be distancing

Votes on Sart, then says they shouldn’t focus too much on last-minute push on Araris because it was probably because people wanted a solid lynch and it was close to rollover Upon review, appears to be defence of Fifth’s last-minute vote. Could be pocketing

    Elenion lynched with three votes. Sart in second place with two votes. Straw’s vote could have been attempt to save Elenion

    States he wished he’d taken vote off Sart because it was poke vote and risked getting in way of legitimate lynch Did he know at that time Sart was for sure village? Sart’s lynch at that time could have still been a legitimate lynch

 

C3

    Fifth votes on straw, saying he’s posted a lot but it’s mostly NAI. Pointed out possible IKYK situation with asking for rule clarifications. Points out Straw mentioning Len could be MiB is giving village cred to teammate now known to be elim. Disagrees with Straw stating finding a way to Spaniard to pass scan info to village is largely useless and mostly dangerous. Says using Bugsy as defense for drawing Elenion to MiB is way to deflect suspicion if Len flipped elim. Points out Sart vote is part of what tied Len with Sart

    Responds to Fifth saying he’s felt he’s been less active than usual, says he doesn’t want to get into IKYK but agrees his “if I was eliminator I wouldn’t do this” argument was faulty, agrees Len/MiB mention does seem elim, says he mistook Spaniard scan as a classic scan, was mildly annoyed by assuming elim by the Len/MiB connection to Bugsy being a deflection, and says it’s unfair to focus on vote saying it was intended to get Sart to take his vote off him, and deflected suspicion to Devotary (placing vote on her) who also voted on Sart, saying that vote made it compete with Len lynch I don’t like his first defence of his Sart vote because Straw wasn’t exactly under threat of lynch. However, there was a low vote count and who knows how it could have swung in the last parts of the turn

    Devotary claimed Spaniard, Straw didn’t change vote. This doesn’t mean much because I don’t know if Straw even saw the claim, and believing a claim at end of cycle can be dangerous.

    In night turn mentions Devotary claiming Spaniard and says he’s sorry for not retracting vote Seems very similar to his response to keeping vote on Sart. Could be elim trying to appear village, could be just how he plays

    Says he’d prefer extension of night Elim wanting more time to decide on kill? Yes, that’s a stretch

    Randuir asks Straw if there’s any conclusions he can draw from the end of the day other than he would have retracted vote (asked in series of questions from Randuir to all living players)

 

C4

    Sart votes on Straw for gut feeling and Elenion’s defence of him D1, commented on voting pattern, asked why part of his statement had been redacted by IM

    Straw responds to last statement by Sart saying it was mistake by GM in writeup This suggests he was on very close to day-to-night turnover, and my have been on before turn ended and after Devotary claimed, but that’s just speculation

    Dalinar asks Straw his thoughts on Randuir

    Straw replies and says he’s unsure of Rand because he helped get the Spaniard lynched but that the Spaniard provided no evidence to prove claim I want to point out Straw also helped get Devotary lynched with only one line of possible reason: her vote on Sart instead of Len

    Sart puts Straw in Probably Elim category by himself, pointing to defending Len, not expressing views in threat, and appearing under the radar too much

    Dalinar asks Straw why he’s been quiet

    Also to be mentioned, Straw did not vote during the cycle Bort was lynched

 

C5

    Sart votes on Straw based on past arguments, but also says in second post he might be tunneling

    Randuir places vote on Straw, stating it’s a poke vote to get straw more active and calls out his voting during the Len wagon was suspicious This could have been distancing because Randuir was under a lot of suspicion at the time. Rand may not have expected the lynch train to pick up on Straw especially after calling it a poke-vote

    Jondesu votes on Straw, stating he’s more likely to be Elim than Rand

    Straw reappears, says IRL stuff left him slightly inactive, tags people who’ve voted on him apparently in attempt to get them to remove votes

    Says they’ll lurk with Burnt, responds to her question about pocketing and the current lynch train

    Randuir asks if Straw has thoughts on the game, mentioning despite his number of posts he’s been quiet Could be distancing

    Votes on Rand because he’s in danger of getting lynched Could be distancing since it’s clear one of them will likely be lynched

    Randuir asks if there are any thoughts because a quick self-preservation vote is not convincing him to try to lynch someone else Again, could be distancing

    Doc12 votes on Straw

    I finally appear, state I’m not sure about either possible lynch, no read on Straw at that time and don’t want to lynch active player without having gained my own read.

    Drake defends Straw, saying Len’s defence on D1 was after the vote was retracted and should invalidate the case against Straw, believes Straw is village

    Sart removes vote from Straw to Randuir

 

C6

    Fifth believes Straw is vindicated by how Rand tried to push a mislynch

    I call Straw likely village because how Rand flipped

    Votes on Doc12 for the reasons I stated, and because Doc hadn’t responded to a PM

    Jondesu states Straw is probably evil, but in the same post he labeled himself as totally evil so I’m taking that with a grain of salt

    Doc also says Straw is likely cleared because it seemed Rand was trying to lead village on mislynching inactives

   

C7

    No posts or mentions during day turn

    States they’ll have to drop out/go inactive because of QF32 that he’s GMing This never happened, he posted just enough to stay around. I know I’m stretching here, but it could have been there was no pinch-hitter found so he stayed around just enough because he was one of two elims left alive

 

C8

    Mr. Doctor points out Straw’s quick vote on Doc12 based on my reasoning, but also states Fifth did the same thing

    Sart mentions Len defending Straw as either pocket attempt or trying to remove suspicion, but Straw hasn’t done much else

    Mr Doctor says if they kill inactives, he’d go with Straw or Manukos

    Considered fine by Burnt (see Burnt analysis for possible conclusion)

    I consider Straw suspicious, but say I may just let inactivity run its course

    Rath votes on Straw, partially in self-preservation, partially because their voting pattern, and partially because they suspected an elim was among the less-active players

    Mr Doctor says Straw has been consistently quiet but offered a few votes. Categorized as mostly mostly dead because of inactivity

    Dalinar considers Straw and Walin top lynch targets It should be noted Dalinar was killed that night by elims

 

C9

    Sart votes on Straw, stating Randuir’s vote could have been distancing

    Straw returns with vote count, vote on Fifth saying they seem suspicious but not stating a reason This is yet another bandwagon-joining vote by Straw

    Sart removes Straw from suspicion list because they’ve voted on an Elim, suggests Straw move his vote from Fifth because it’s unlikely someone would knife their own teammate

    Sart would suspect Straw if manukos flipped village because he had the worst alibi for voting on Randuir, saying village!Manukos might mean an elim member bussed Rand

 

My takeaway

After reviewing my top to suspicions, I find Straw to be a bit more unusual. He tended to join quickly on bandwagons against people who turned out to be village, but seemed hesitant to join the lynch on Rand. It only happened when Straw was in serious danger of a lynch. It very well could have been a distancing tactic to clear one if the other died. Because of this pattern, I'd lean towards clearing Burnt if he flips elim, considering how quickly he joined my lynch.

As for Burnt, some of her predecessor's actions were a bit eliminator-y, but it seems less condemning than what I found against Straw.

My conclusion: Burnt, and Straw.

P.S. It feels good to finally get some analysis done again after a few cycles of not having enough time. Sorry if it's a bit difficult to read.

EDIT: @Mr Doctor, @Fifth Scholar, @Burnt Spaghetti, @Straw

Edited by Elandera
Formatting and messed up on coding for the vote
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...dangit, Elandera. I was midway through this analysis myself. I agree with most of it, though I think some of your conclusions may be slightly harsh. While Straw does seem more suspicious, I will keep closely in mind that much of what you marked him down for is NAI for him, such as random bandwagon-y votes. Before I place my vote, I want to consider the three most likely Eliminator teams: 

1. Elandera/Burnt

2. Burnt/Straw

3.Elandera/Straw

Unless Elandera is going for a bus here (which is quite feasible), team 3 looks the most unlikely. Team 2 is what Elandera believes, which of course she does, but I’m having trouble with it. Why? Burnt and Straw are the easiest scapegoats for village mislynching, and the two both being on the same team feels wrong. Team 1 seems weird given the odd shade-casting that went down between Burnt and Elandera earlier this cycle. I am leaning closer to team (0): Burnt with Straw/Elandera, possibly leaning a bit more likely on Straw? Maybe?. But I really don’t like any of the three candidates—they all have reasons to be good and reasons to be evil, but the webs of connections between them are hard to puzzle out and are much muddier given everything that’s happened this cycle. However, overall, and due to the nature of the votes on her at the beginning of this cycle being mostly poke-votes, one of them likely cast by a villager and one by an elim to distance, I will go ahead and vote Burnt Spaghetti

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