[OB] Geopolitics of Roshar

[SpeakoftheDeval]

"All nations spend peacetime preparing for war"

I've been reading up a lot recently on the theory that it really doesnt matter what type of person the leader of a country is even in the most autocratic of situations- they must always bow to the card that geography has dealt them. For example, France must always be very careful in its dealings with Germany because that is Frances weakest border and so its either got to keep Germany weak as it did before the German reunification or its got to work so closely with Germany that its in both of their best interests to stay allies as it has been doing since the EU. There are certain criteria that you can apply to any country (as best as I can figure) to create a picture of its foreign policy based on geography which will remain basically the same hundreds of years after any particular government has fallen out of power. These criteria are:

• Access to the sea (especially warm water)
• Navigable Waterways
• Defensible borders
• Availability of food (fertility of its territory)
• Availability of natural resources 
• Ethnic groups
• Proximity to other great powers
• Size of population
• Proximity to other powers

So I decided to apply these criteria to the great powers of Roshar and work out what Queen Fen has on her mind that influences the way she deals with the Viziers of Azir and vice versa. I'll include my own comments in brackets but I thought this format would be fun.

A Report To Her Majesty Queen Jasnah of House Kholin, blessed by the Almighty with Dominion over the territories Kholin, Sadeas, Aladar, Ruthar, Roion, Bethab, Sebarial, Thanadal, Vamah and Hatham, may her reign be long and fruitful, on the General State of Her Territories and Beyond as they existed before the Desolation 

Alethkar:

The history of the Alethi peoples has been marked by cycles of unification and disintegration- currently we are in a state of unification and as always, when an Alethi monarch's rule stretches from sea to shining sea, we become a force with incredible power through a combination of many different factors.

Firstly, Alethkar is protected from three sides by the sea, the unclaimed hills and the frostlands. This means that the only direction a land attack could come from is from Jah Keved and that too is partially prevented by the foothills of the Sunmakers and the Horneater peaks. This fortress like nature has not however, turned against us, as it has in Shinovar, preventing any Shin from projecting power across Makabak and cutting them off from the majority of trade. This is because of the physical proximity we have with the markets of Thaylenah, Jah Keved through the Tarat Sea, which has served to enrich Karanak and Dumadari.

Additionally, Alethkar has more rivers than any other kingdom, which makes the land fertile and also enables easy, cheap transportation of the crops we produce to foreign markets. The costs we cut through river transportation, and the lower prices we are able to offer customers means we are often the supplier of choice for them- this enriches us and creates a dependency on us which can be used to our advantage in foreign negotiations. Kharbranth and Thaylenah especially would be hit hard by economic sanctions as they themselves have very little farmland and must import most of their food- it is for this reason that the Thaylens must keep an ally in either Alethkar or Jah Keved as things stand because either could supply them adequately but they recognise the weakness overdependency would bring.

However, there are certain weaknesses that the Almighty has seen fit to confer on us- principally the difficulty in maintaining internal unity that has prevented Alethkar from truly dominating the east. One of the greatest tragedies is that there is no connection between the Windrunner and Deathbend rivers as this has combined with the relative narrowness of the pass between the Sunmakers and the Unclaimed Hills to delineate two clear spheres of influence within Alethkar; the northern and the southern. It was after all, Rathalas who rebelled from Kholin overlordship, southerners who rebelled against northerners and Highprince Thanadal was one of the most vocal opposition parties to His Royal Highness Highking Dalinar following the Vengeance Pact (according to the coppermind). The south is also more powerful than the north in terms of economics due to how well connected it is to the markets of the Tarat Sea and the recent management of the Sebarial and Hatham princedoms- the north must do what it can with the route through Herdaz to the Reshi Sea, though this takes longer and is less profitable due to the smaller market and extra costs of overland, international travel. Why the Almighty cursed us with those damned island chains to the north, all but cutting us off from the sea apart from small scale fishing I shall never know. It is thus imperative that Your Majesty curtail the power of the Southron Princedoms that they are not minded to rebel- failing this the alliance with Sebarial is invaluable and must be maintained at all costs. The traditional method employed by your predecessors has been to focus them with military campaigns, however this is becoming impractical as the horneater peaks form a natural barrier to westwards expansion, and expansion in all other directions isn't worth the effort. Additionally, all highprinces are war weary and the supply chains for further expansion would be unreasonable- so your majesty must begin the centralisation of the government as soon as possible.

As long as these territories remain under your power, they represent Kholinars primary source of income and so, their access to the southern depths must be protected- Jah Keved is a land based power and Kharbranth is far too small and vulnerable to pose a threat. Thaylenah however, has the strongest navy on the sea and could with not great effort blockade Alethkars access to trade with Makabak  perhaps in order to tax our goods. An imperative of her majesty's is thus to keep Thaylenah occupied in other areas of the world and cow the Thaylens with shows of military strength- though they are virtually unassailable in their island fortress. Failing this, response to Thaylen sea power would have to mean that we increase land based trade to Kharbranth and Jah Keved, which could potentially maintain the economy even if we lose access to to Azir and its protectorates.

Jah Keved

Jah Keved is a country of wide variation and has many potential strengths due to its large territory and coastline on two seas giving it potential naval power over a massive swathe of the worlds oceans. The Veden King is the protector of Valath and thus has prestige among Vorins as protector of the Holy Enclave. Vedenar and the Veden cultural centres are highly connected to the Vorin economy by dint of proximity to Alethkar, Kharbranth and Thaylenah which has led to southern prosperity and ability to project power into the north of the country. Jah Keved is sheltered from the storms by Sunmaker mountains and the Horneater peaks, leading to unparalleled fertility which in turn paves the way for large workforces, wealth and power. Furthermore, there are mineral deposits of immense value throughout the Veden lands although centred in Bavland. All of these things make Jah Keved highly desirable.

Perhaps the best way to understand Jah Keved is as a multi ethnic contiguous empire- the mountains are a blessing and a curse because they create numerous small ethnic groups that are very difficult to fully subdue, see themselves as autonomous and act with virtual internal autonomy as well. This means that there is always the risk of these becoming fully independent and Vedenar must attempt to integrate these populations as soon as possible, or at the very least ensure their loyalty. Jah Keveds proximity to Alethkar also ensures that it must constantly defend itself against Alethi advances and this has prevented them from turning their attention westwards to fully subjugate Tu Bayla (which would take no particular effort considering the disunity among the nomadic tribes and the Veden shardblades- the Vedens have in the past expressed interest in hiring certain tribes of Tu Bayla as a police force (like the Cossacks of imperial Russia))or to attempt to dominate trade in the Reshi sea. In this situation, Jah Keved would far eclipse our own kingdom, in size, population, wealth and military power and threaten Alethi integrity. As such, our “pointless” skirmishing with the Vedens has helped keep the balance between us- after this war, I doubt we will be able to continue it however, and we need to find other ways to halt the Veden rise. Trade alliances with western kingdoms such as Rira or Iri could help limit Veden economic power in the Reshi sea and we could also ensure Tu Baylas autonomy and encourage further autonomy of a horneater state (obviously one allied to the Alethi) or any other of the ethnic or political groups in the “empire”. If Jah Keved were to fully fragment, this would obviously have its advantages for the alethi crown, however too much political instability would spill over into our own lands in the form of refugees from small ethnicity states (like ethnic refugees in the Balkan wars) and possibly even encourage separatism within alethkar, which as mentioned before is unacceptable, so encouraging ethnic tension within Jah Keved is a double edged sword. Perhaps support could be given to the Herdazians to help them annex Northgrip and cripple the Vedens there, however the rise of a powerful Herdaz threatens the Alethi north as well so isn’t our first choice. At present the Vedens are weakened by their civil war, but this state of affairs will not last and we need to ensure that when peace is restored to the world it is under the Alethi world order. Something must be done and at present, fracturing the “empire” seems like the most viable option, so we must be prepared to take full advantage of this fragmentation as soon as possible by allowing the rival factions to weaken each other and then swooping in to invade before a winner can emerge or any perceived successes inspire southern alethi separatist movements.

 

Makabak

My personal view of Azir, your Majesty,  is that it is a weak state pretending at former glory with a top heavy bureaucracy that is simply unsustainable. It seems very likely that it will soon fracture, with western Makabaki states declaring their total independence.Perhaps Azir will retain Tashikk due to the large Azish population there and the states of Desh and Emul As Emul needs to be allied with Azir to give it strategic depth in its war with Tukar and Desh is simply too poor and small to retain independence. Azir faces very little threat  from the north as it is protected by mountains apart from a small pass- however it is completely defenceless from the rest of Makabak with no geographical borders to stop an approaching army- historically it first protected itself through military strength, forging the empire of Makabak that mirrored the Silver Era Kingdom. Then Azir built its present fortifications which protect the city itself from attack and with the immediate threat neutralised had little justification for the costs of a large standing army. So, to cut down on the size of the army, the empire developed its famed bureaucracy that provided members benefits to remaining part of the empire, which worked well for a while; in the modern period however, the bureaucracy has grown unwieldy and the individual kingdoms are becoming more and more independent as they benefit less- the Prime is now reduced to a mere figurehead who cannot exercise power for fear of sending his subjects into total revolt. Thus I predict the breakup of the empire in the near future- despite this, Azir will always be primus inter pares within Makabak because of its centrality and abundance of raw materials through its control of the highly defensible mining city of Zawfix.

Thaylenah

Thaylenah is perhaps best positioned to benefit from the breakup of the Azish empire. The modern Thaylen question is how to support its sudden population growth caused by economic prosperity- as the population increases, Thaylen City becomes more and more dependent on foreign imports from Alethkar and Jah Keved which could weaken its foreign policy ad infinitum. To prevent this Queen Fen must secure a source of food very soon and her eyes seem to be on Marat, Emul and Tukar. These regions are militarily destroyed by infighting and now by Voidbringers, so upon our victory, it is my belief that Thaylenah will claim these territories as reparations for Thaylen Fields and secure itself a breadbasket. This could prove advantageous to Your Majesty as it directs the Thaylen's attention away from blockading Alethkar and towards subjugating the new territories. 

Another part of Thaylen policy to note is that they live in fear that the Alethi will one day expand to the Frostlands and then be able to stage an invasion onto their island from the east- the point where their navy is weakest and our infantry is most effective. As such they have been instrumental in ensuring the autonomy of Kharbranth to use as a buffer state, but if Kharbranth ever seems like it might let Alethkar into the Frostlands, the Thaylens will invade either Kharbranth or the entire Frostlands preemptively.

Iri

The only kingdom in this report to have sided with the enemy- Iri is a unique case. Its incredibly long coastline (like Norway, longer than it looks) leads to fishing revenue and potential to dominate the Reshi sea and perhaps even land an invading force into northern Jah Keved. Though it is warmer than Azir (this was based off a WoB i think), it is not a desert region because of its rough mountainous terrain. Its major population centre, Rall Elorim is situated in the mountains, which partially explains why the population is so small (mountain regions are typified on earth by small poor populations). Additionally, the main port city, Kasitor is on the wrong side of the country to trade with the Reshi sea and Jah Keved, so its limited to its original purpose of fishing with the occasional merchant ship who only comes to the edge of the world because its close to the fertile lands of Shinovar. One other problem of the mountainous terrain is that large scale agriculture is completely unviable, dooming Iri to poverty unless they secure a breadbasket. They have the high ground after all, and after eyeing those lands for decades (mentioned in Oathbringer), they finally conquered the relatively fertile lowlands of Rira and Babartharnam in this war in order to gain something to export, food for ts people and connections to the major trade routes of the world that it was previously in the periphery of, such as the Jah Keved- Reshi- Purelake- Azir route. Now that they have access to those routes, I believe they will attempt to either conquer the fertile lands of northern Jah Keved or the closer and less well defended Shinovar, which is protected from all except the Iriali by mountains.

 

I am as ever, your humble servant,

Brightlord Madhav of House Deval

 

I hope ive raised some good points and if anyone has anything to add or question then im all for revising this geopolitical model. Thank you for reading.

Edited June 19, 2018 by MadhavDeval
There can’t be water shortages in Makabak

[Skip]

I don't really have anything to add just wanted to say it was a good read thanks. Hopefully more informed people can comment

 

[SnopyDogy]

Wow, that must have taken some effort. I really enjoy this sort of speculation on Brandon's wonderful; world building .

A few things i'd like to point out:

• I seem to recall a thread from a couple of years ago were there was a general agreement that the size of the Roshar super continent was about the same as Eurasia or 10,000km across (a resent reddit thread using OB info puts it about 7,500km across including aimia). I did some rough math with that in mind and it turns out that the OB hardcover jacket map has a scale of about 220-280km per centimetre. That makes some of your small passes 100-300km across . More defensible than 1000+km but still not small, even for nations that can field armies of 100,000+ men.
• You forgot about soulcasters. i suspect that the ability to soulcast food changes its geo-political importance somewhat. 
• Another possibility for Thaylenah is to colonise the Frostlands, i suspect they are underpopulated.
• Trade with the Reshi isles could be very profitable, in the same way trade with Indonesia was very profitable in our world for a while (gotta get those spices for the men's food from somewhere right?).
• I'm not sure you can describe Azir as a desert. A desert implies low rainfall, less than 250mm according to Wikipedia. A typical highstorm must deliver at least 50mm every time it comes through. As we know Shinovar is the only place that doesn't see the highstorms and it isn't a desert. I think it is fair to say that there are no deserts on Roshar, at least as we define them on earth.
• Highstorms also make availability of fresh water a non-issues for anyone with the basic infrastructure (roof + water tank) to collect rainfall. 
• I imagine Azir being sort of like the Holy Roman Empire, everyone like to pretend it is one sate when it is convenient while acting like a bunch or separate states when it isn't. Azir does seem to lean more towards the unified state end of the spectrum tho.

Okay so that was more than a few points. Do any of these change your model?

[SpeakoftheDeval]

On 22/05/2018 at 2:13 PM, SnopyDogy said:

That makes some of your small passes 100-300km across

Thanks for the info on the size of Roshar as I couldn’t find that before but I think my point about relatively small passes still stands through looking at Earth- Russia has always wanted to control Poland because that’s the point where the great Eurasian plain begins to widen out and is thus the last point where access to the Russian heartland can be easily defended. It’s still a few hundred kilometres but that’s far better than the thousands it becomes and that theory works here as well.

As for soulcasters that’s a bit harder to imagine- the way I’ve thought about it is that there just aren’t very many soulcasters; there are enough to make grand imperial structures in capitals and to at a stretch stop a city from running out of food in a siege but not really to be able to feed an entire country. Especially in vorin nations wih their treatment as religious items I doubt they’d be used to mass produce food even if they could so nations still need to secure food sources for their populations

My vision of the frost lands puts it at something like Siberia, so sure Thaylenah could colonise it but it wouldn’t give them the food they need- the only reason Russia took Siberia was to create a buffer region between them and the nomadic warrior tribes and Thaylenah I would say has less need of this due to the defensibility of being an island nation. It is possible though that if relations with the Alethi sour and they begin to fear an invasion that they claim the southern frostlands but this seems unlikely as things stand.

You definitely have a point on fresh water, I’ll edit that on the op- even so Azir controls the defensible mines at Zawfix and so that’s probably a trump card they can use,as well as being central, big and historically powerful. Would you say Azir more resembles a savannah than a desert? Tashikk after all seems to have flora analogous to antelopes

I think there are some parts of Makabak that are highly dependent on Azir like Tashikk, Alm, Desh and maybe Emul but there are some western states that due to cultural differences, remoteness and independent economies/foreign policy  like Liafor, Steen and maybe even Yezier that could assert full independence. It’s a question of whether the Makabak empires integrated economy is worth submission as if they chose to rebel it would be very costly for Azir to hold onto them.

As for the Reshi spice trade, are we sure there are even spices there? If so I think it’ll be a contest between the northwestern nations to dominate that trade route (because the north eastern nations are either focused on the south or like Tu Bayla not interested in the sea or really foreign powers at all) and establish trading colonies- rira seems best placed as it has a port city in the middle of the reshi sea.

 

[Leyrann]

4 hours ago, MadhavDeval said:

As for soulcasters that’s a bit harder to imagine- the way I’ve thought about it is that there just aren’t very many soulcasters; there are enough to make grand imperial structures in capitals and to at a stretch stop a city from running out of food in a siege but not really to be able to feed an entire country. Especially in vorin nations wih their treatment as religious items I doubt they’d be used to mass produce food even if they could so nations still need to secure food sources for their populations

It's actually specifically mentioned that the Alethi army at the Shattered Plains has only been able to stay there for five years because they use soulcasters instead of (yes, instead of) supply caravans.

[SpeakoftheDeval]

5 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

It's actually specifically mentioned that the Alethi army at the Shattered Plains has only been able to stay there for five years because they use soulcasters instead of (yes, instead of) supply caravans.

That’s something that needs to be worked out then- clearly agriculture exists and it wouldn’t if soulcasters could provide food for an entire nation but how much can they do- also how available are they; the only confirmed soulcasters are Alethi (I’m estimating theirs at five or six), Azish (the coppermind says a few) and a single liaforan one. If they can do things like supply food for an entire army then it’s imperative that we have an idea of what they can do on the grand scale because that’s vitally important to the geopolitics of the continent. If every country with a soulcaster can eliminate the costs of buying materials and export all their surplus then they would become economically unbeatable. If the small scale scamming of Lin Davar is all anyone has ever done with something that could make him basically an independent ruler I will be so confused. Can someone please clarify?

[Ashspren]

@MadhavDeval That was a really great read. I literally just ran out of reputation points, otherwise I would totally give you one. 

The tenth pancake isn't real... neither is the twenty-first upvote. 

[Leyrann]

13 hours ago, MadhavDeval said:

That’s something that needs to be worked out then- clearly agriculture exists and it wouldn’t if soulcasters could provide food for an entire nation but how much can they do- also how available are they; the only confirmed soulcasters are Alethi (I’m estimating theirs at five or six), Azish (the coppermind says a few) and a single liaforan one. If they can do things like supply food for an entire army then it’s imperative that we have an idea of what they can do on the grand scale because that’s vitally important to the geopolitics of the continent. If every country with a soulcaster can eliminate the costs of buying materials and export all their surplus then they would become economically unbeatable. If the small scale scamming of Lin Davar is all anyone has ever done with something that could make him basically an independent ruler I will be so confused. Can someone please clarify?

I believe the Alethi have several dozen soulcasters, actually. Remember how a whole bunch came with the expedition to the center of the Shattered Plains, and that was most likely not all of them, considering six of the highprinces and the king (who owns the soulcasters and rents them out) all stayed behind.

[Bigmikey357]

The limiting factor with the soulcasters are gems. The Alethi army on the Shattered Plains would not be able to maintain their strength in numbers without the chasmfiend hunts. Those hunts provide the Emerald needed to soulcast food in a quantity that sufficiently feeds an army. However, the effects of the Vengeance Pact seems to be hunting the beasts to extinction.  The gemhearts being found are much smaller than what the army encounters upon their arrival at SP. So where do the gems come from? What are the other sources of gems on Roshar? Are the mines in Azir a source of minerals used in soulcasters? 

[Scion of the Mists]

10 hours ago, Bigmikey357 said:

So where do the gems come from? What are the other sources of gems on Roshar? Are the mines in Azir a source of minerals used in soulcasters? 

 

The Coppermind is a great resource for questions like these: https://coppermind.net/wiki/Polestone

Quote

While polestones are produced via mining, a significant source of them on Roshar is the harvesting of the gemhearts that grow inside greatshells. Larger species of greathshell, like chasmfiends, produce gemhearts of great size, which are incredibly useful in Soulcasting as a larger stone is less likely to break from the strain.

 

[Calderis]

@Scion of the Mists @Bigmikey357

There is also reference in OB to a species smaller than a chull that is raised specifically for it gemhearts which are used. 

[Bigmikey357]

8 minutes ago, Scion of the Mists said:

 

The Coppermind is a great resource for questions like these: https://coppermind.net/wiki/Polestone

 

If that is indeed the case then Roshar is about to have problems everywhere in regards to shortages. A nation has to have their farmlands if it expects to feed its people. Wars will have to be fought the old fashioned way, with supply lines and whatnot.

[king of nowhere]

On 2/6/2018 at 6:20 PM, MadhavDeval said:

That’s something that needs to be worked out then- clearly agriculture exists and it wouldn’t if soulcasters could provide food for an entire nation but how much can they do- also how available are they; the only confirmed soulcasters are Alethi (I’m estimating theirs at five or six), Azish (the coppermind says a few) and a single liaforan one. If they can do things like supply food for an entire army then it’s imperative that we have an idea of what they can do on the grand scale because that’s vitally important to the geopolitics of the continent. If every country with a soulcaster can eliminate the costs of buying materials and export all their surplus then they would become economically unbeatable. If the small scale scamming of Lin Davar is all anyone has ever done with something that could make him basically an independent ruler I will be so confused. Can someone please clarify?

you can soulcast pretty much any resource, but it takes a lot of gemstones to produce large amounts. So, you can get needed materials in a pinch, but you can't sustain an economy long-term that way. I believe their presence changes little on large scale economy.

as for your analysis, I only have one remark: near the end, you say that taylen may conquer the frostlands against vorin expansionism. I doubt it. taking lland on the continent would give alethi troops the chance to face the taylens on land, which is exactly what they want to avoid. I would say, even if alethkar claims the frostlands, they'd still be unable to invade. they could certainly organize a landing across the longbrows strait, but the taylen navy could then arrive and plug the gap, leaving the invasion force isolated. without influx of reinforces and materials, an alethi invading army would be lost. it is more or less a similar situation with the siege of great britain during the world war: hitler could have sent troops across the strait, but they would have remained isolated as soon as the royal navy arrived to disrupt suppplies across the english channel. soulcasters could mitigate tthe need for supplies somewhat, but still, there is a limit to how long an army can go

[SpeakoftheDeval]

20 hours ago, king of nowhere said:

taking lland on the continent would give alethi troops the chance to face the taylens on land

I was thinking they’d nominally conquer the lands and post a small force there to monitor alethi behaviour, and if alethkar ever went for the frostlands, though the thaylens could never hope to win on their own, they could claim that alethkar had violated their territorial integrity and get foreign allies involved before alethkar even got close enough to threaten Thaylenah itself. 

To even attempt the attack on Britain, Hitler both needed to control France and have a navy strong enough to facilitate this invasion. Thus I’m saying that the thaylens will preclude the threat of a frostlands based alethi navy getting strong enough to attack by making sure it never exists in the first place by denying them access to the frostlands.