[OB] The Roshone Affair Revisited: What if Queen Aesudan Killed Moash's Grandparents

[Subvisual Haze]

The lives of Kaladin, Moash, and Elhokar were placed on a collision course for tragedy after The Roshone Affair.  In this event we infer that Moash's silversmith grandparents were imprisoned, and later died in prison, based on the greed of Roshone who used his influence over King Elhokar (in charge of Kholinar due to the absence of his father and Dalinar) to carry out the plot.  When Dalinar was alerted to the disaster details were suppressed and Roshone was exiled.  This single critical event would have a domino effect resulting in:

• the death of Moash's family and embittering of Moash 
• the exile of Roshone to Hearthstone and the eventual levying into the army and death of Tien (destroying Kaladin's "innocence") 
• Kaladin and Moash uniting in a temporary treasonous plot against Elhokar 
• Kaladin temporarily losing his bond with Syl and nearly turning against Dalinar 
• Kaladin and Moash experiencing a falling out, resulting in Moash being exiled from Bridge 4, and ultimately joining The Singers
• The death of Elhokar at Moash's hands.

Many classic literary tragedies tend to have a critical miscommunication or misunderstanding at their root.  There is also often a single antagonistic character whose manipulative or evil actions result in the downfall of others.  I believe Queen Aesudan, not King Elhokar, was ultimately responsible for the death of Moash's family.  Elhokar however, displaying his usual characteristics of loving and protective husband, along with his propensity to trust the wrong people, chose to assume responsibility for his wife's actions.  This sets the perfect recipe for a tragedy wherein Kaladin and Moash are set on a path of vengeance based on the incomplete assumption that Elhokar was entirely responsible for the tragedies in their life.  Moash ends up killing a person who did not bear true responsibility for his plight, and indeed Moash is now serving one who did bear responsibility for the evils done to him (Queen Aesudan, likely already acting under the influence of Odium+Unmade).  I can't really prove this was likely the case, but it is a fun thought to consider, and it would connect a lot of clues and offer an important twist on the story. A couple possible clues:

1 - Approximate Time of the Roshone Affair

Quote

[Dalinar to Kaladin during his imprisonment in WoR] "Elhokar was crown prince then, commanded to rule over Kholinar and watch the kingdom while his father organized our first camps here in the Shattered Plains.  I was...away at the time"

"Anyway, do not blame Elhokar.  He was taking the advice of someone he trusted.  Roshone, however, sought his own interests instead of those of the Throne."

This quote places the time of the Roshone Affair pretty accurately.  It occurs in the brief interval where the Listeners had been discovered and King Gavilar had developed an interest in them, but before Gavilar had been assassinated.  Perhaps one year or less before the assassination?  Dalinar was likely in an alcoholic bender at this time instead of watching over and instructing Elhokar, another tragic "what if?" element to the event.

The second half of this quote is interesting because at first glance the "someone he trusted" is heavily implied to be Roshone.  It is worded just loosely enough though that Dalinar could be referring to a third party.

2 - If Aesudan was suspected of being involved in this affair, it explains certain reactions by Dalinar and Jasnah.

We are never given a specific reason why Jasnah was arranging for an assassination of Queen Aesudan via Liss, nor why she eventually retreats from her request opting for further observation.  If Jasnah highly suspected that Aesudan bore responsibility for the Roshone Affair (but wasn't completely certain due to Elhokar covering for her), that may be enough to make Jasnah highly consider an assassination, but then decide it needed further observation.  We learn later that Jasnah considers the stability of her family's rule to be of critical importance, thus her recognizing that Aesudan is both a terrible ruler/person and also has the blind loyalty of Elhokar would establish Aesudan as a clear risk to the family's ability to maintain power and not coming into internal conflict with one another.

We also are given heavy hints early on that Dalinar does not trust Aesudan.  Mraize's letter indicates that Dalinar's trusted soldier Bordin was purposefully left behind in Kholinar to keep an eye on the Queen (Bordin later leaves the city to deliver Taln and the shardblade to Dalinar).  Dalinar also seems distressed that Navani has left Kholinar, hoping that she would provide leadership advice to Aesudan.  Navani declares however that the Queen is politically competent (and reading between the lines, likely ignores Navani's advice entirely).  We later learn that Aesudan is a cruel and petty ruler who has been under the influence of Odium's Unmade for an indeterminate period of time.

3 - Characters of Elhokar and Roshone

What was done to Moash's grandparents was monstrous, but in hindsight it doesn't seem to match the characteristics of either Elhokar or Roshone, the two characters we are told are responsible.  Elhokar was a pretty terrible ruler for much of the time we are with him, he trusts the wrong people, and occasionally displays a temper.  Even so, agreeing to throw some elderly artisans in the palace dungeons merely to financially benefit an ally seems much more cold-hearted than the Elhokar we know.  If however Aesudan was responsible for throwing some inconvenient darkeyes in dungeon, it is fitting with Elhokar's character that he would try to protect her and refuse to think ill about her.

Roshone is another character who while greedy, underhanded, and unpleasant doesn't seem to sink to the level of murderous to achieve his goals.  Indeed in the Hearthstone flashbacks Roshone seem to rely on bullying and peer pressure to try to get back Lirin's stolen spheres, rather than directly threatening his family or imprisoning them.  Lirin notes that he is of high enough Nahn to have rights against unlawful imprisonment by Roshone, but the events of the Roshone Affair clearly demonstrate a flaw with that line of thinking.  The fact that Lirin and Hesina seem to have grown accepting of Roshone's presence by the events of Oathbringer may indicate that Roshone isn't as malicious as has been suggested.  Perhaps Roshone originally proposed an underhanded scheme to pressure Moash's parents into joining his monopoly, but it was Aesudan who chose to escalate matters into imprisoning them?

4 - Elhokar's Cryptic

Elhokar had attracted the attention of a Cryptic (liespren) and was on the path to becoming a Lightweaver before his tragic end.  We'll never know for certain what specific lies Elhokar had been telling himself that attracted a Cryptic ("I am a good and effective King" seems one painful possibility).  His uncompromising belief that his wife was a good person and just ruler seems very likely to have been one of them though.  During the infiltration of Kholinar when he otherwise displayed traits of a good leader he repeatedly refused to consider the possibility that Aesudan was responsible for the situation in the city.  Admitting this would likely have been one of his Truths for a Lightbringer oath.  Thus completes the tragedy of Elhokar, his greatest flaw and the seed of his downfall was loving and trusting his wife too much.

5 - Random Quote That Probably Means Nothing

Behold the offhand reference to a card game that Lirin makes when Roshone first arrives at Hearthstone:

Quote

"Stormfather, I hate getting a new Landed.  Always makes me feel like I'm throwing a handful of stones into a game of breakneck.  Will we throw the queen or the tower?"

"The tower" is commonly used as a symbol of House Kholin, it and a crown are the chapter header image for Dalinar.  Mentioning the Queen in contrast to the tower here would be a fantastic wink from Brandon if did turn out that the Queen (Aesudan), not the Tower (Elhokar) was responsible for the Roshone affair and its fallout.  Or it might mean nothing at all  

[digitalbusker]

I dig it! I don't know that we'll ever find out for sure (maybe in a Jasnah flashback), but I think we can take it as a certainty that she wasn't trying to make that situation better.

[Stormblessed Dolphin]

Cool theory. Would certainly deepen the plot. We'll just have to wait and find out.

 

[Patrick Star]

Honestly, I don't like it.  Aesudan is dead.  Gone.  Consumed by Yelig-nar.  Elhokar is dead.  Gone.  Stabbed through the heart by the worst villain ever Moash.

Evidently, she already has a bunch of other shady rust she was up to, why add Roshone to the list?  It's either to make Elhokar look better, or to make her look worse, and both are unnecessary.

Elhokar shouldn't be exonerated because it would make Kaladin's arc in Words of Radiance pointless.  He kills Syl because of his hate for Elhokar and encouraging Moash to proceed with the assassination.  This led to him swearing his third oath - "I will protect even those I hate so long as it is right".  It would be atrocious writing for Brandon to go "Psyche! Elhokar was completely innocent all along!"  because the point of the story was that Elhokar stormed up royally, but that wasn't worth assassination.  It would also eliminate a large portion of Elhokar's character growth.

As for Aesudan, she tried to bond a storming unmade while her city starved and slowly fell to Odium's army and influence.  She's already about as evil as a character with such little screentime can get.  Plus she was probably with the Sons of Honor.  We already have plenty of reasons to hate her, how the heck are Moash's parents going to add to that aside from being a way to put more attention on Moash?

It wouldn't add anything to the story, only subtract.  Yes, Aesudan was a crappy person.  But no, she was not involved with Moash's grandparents.

Also, Roshone is totally willing to resort to killing.  He's the reason Tien had to join the army, and we know how he intended that to end.

[WhiteLeeopard]

I don't think this would add or detract more from Elhokar. Whether he did it himself or he covered for Aseduan he bears the same guilt in my opinion. Its possible that the queen was behind it, but it wouldn't change things much. It would however make things more interesting for how Kaladin almost wrecked all in WoR for nothing. And it would bring home how important thoughts and beliefs are for Nahel bonds.

[hypatia]

I also thought of the possibility that the one Elhokar trusted wasn't Roshone himself, but I never thought of Asuedan.

Mostly because this affaire happened about 8 years ago - leaving Elhokar what? - 19? - and Moash about 12 years old.

I was really hoping someone would ask Elhokar about his PoV - he is accused but no one told him what really was the reason for the attempt to kill him in WoR.

All in all we don't know exactly what had happened, we only got Moash's view and some cryptic sentences from Dalinar:

There were rumors.

Roshone wasn't in this behalf acting for the interests of the crown but for his own ones. Or perhaps for his liege - Sadeas?

Sadeas was also the reason why Gavilar punished Roshone but not  as severly as Dalinar wanted.

All of this leads to questions:

What were the "interests of the crown" - at this time Gavilar -  with this affair? Was it for silver or something more?

Who was involved? We have Roshone and Elhokar, but there is also Sadeas and Gavilar hinted at.

What happened with the shops after the death of the grandparents? And I think more of Roshone's.

In OB we get Moash's PoV - and there was something that changes his story a little bit - he was at this time on a caravan with an uncle of his.

Granted - it isn't necessarily a blood relative of his grandparents but Moash had had more relatives than only his grandparents - as he had told Kaladin to involve him in the assassination.

I always thought it odd, that two elderly shop-owners would allow their only heir to leave their buisiness, now with an uncle - and perhaps more - we get the possibility of other family members.

My problem is I can't judge Elhokar without knowing the background. I don't want to excuse him, but to wait for the whole story.

 

[The Thinking Herald]

I like this theory. If this was somehow proven true, it’d flesh out more backstory about the characters involved (Elhokar, Roshone, Aesudan, Moash, and Kaladin) as well as hint to a larger background (Gavilar, Sadeas, and Dalinar, as mentioned by hypatia) behind the Roshone Affair. 

However, I can’t help but agree with Patrick Star. Most of the people involved in the Affair are dead or no longer of much relevance to the main plot. Elhokar is dead. Aesudan is dead. Gavilar is dead. Sadeas is dead. Roshone isn't likely to have that much of an effect on the future plot. Dalinar's past it, and Kaladin is past it. If this theory were to be validated in a future novel, it would likely only take away from the events occurring in that novel's plot. And as Patrick said, the theory isn't even that necessary. It'd only add unnecessary information to those characters' backstories, while said backstories are already complete. We don't really need to know this information. We don't need to know if Elhokar was a better person than currently portrayed; We don't need to know if Roshone has the potential for good in him (well this one maybe); We certainly don't need more information portraying Aesudan as more of a scumbag.

If this theory ended up being validated, the only two things I could see it doing would be:

1. Provide Roshone with a potential for a bigger "redemption" arc, which we don't really need to see happen unless that other theory about Roshone=Kalak is validated, which I don't see happening. This potential plotline would, overall, bog down the novels and add even more pages to an already-doorstopper sized novel, or worse yet, subtract from the main character plotlines. And, even if you want to see Roshone get a redemption arc, I'm sure that he'll at least have a bit more interaction with Kaladin in the future that would force his character to a similar result.

2. Provide a path for Moash to change. If this theory were validated, Moash may have a reason to rebel against Odium and the Fused, if they were influencing Aesudan at that point to get his family killed. This would lead to his potential redemption arc. Again, I don't really see this happening, though it's slightly more possible as far as future plotlines go than 1. Why shouldn't this happen, though? Well, first, it'd be a waste of page space. Vyre is already poised to become Odium's Champion, and if this plotline were to be introduced, we'd have to spend more time looking for Odium's Champ. While there exists the potential for other characters (Adolin, maybe?) to become the Champ, I think that the lines of the war (not the lines of good and evil) are already pretty well drawn out, and this plot would add more confusion over something that needn't be confused more at this point. Secondly, while I feel that everyone, even fictional characters, deserve to earn their own redemption, I also feel that Vyre is too far gone. He killed his king, one of his demi-gods, and allowed himself to get pretty much possessed by an alien spirit. At this point, a redemption arc for him would feel contrived.

In the end, I feel that the theory is well thought out, and could possibly be true (I wish it was), but that it and it's ramifications will probably never be explored in the series for plot tightness and convenience. It'd just bog down the plot of a future novel, and for purposes (Roshone and Moash redemption arcs) that don't really need to be fulfilled.

Edited January 16, 2018 by The Thinking Herald
Incomplete Response

[Subvisual Haze]

Thank you for the reponses everyone!

I think narratively, the main function this would serve would be to drive home the tragic nature of Moash's path.  He threw away all the good things in his life for a chance at revenge that he ultimately found emotionally hollow.  How much more tragic for Moash if he learns that his revenge wasn't even correctly targeted, and he threw everything away for truly nothing?  It gets back to the theme of choosing to forgive your enemies instead of perpetuating the cycle of vengeance (or as Lirin said to Kaladin, "Someone has to start").  Moash gave in to his anger and took violent revenge on Elhokar, is the correct response to that someone killing Moash to take further revenge?  If Moash does eventually "come back to the light", how would he seek out atonement for what he has done?  I think that would be a pretty interesting path for the story to take.

Also, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Moash decides to "pay a visit" to Roshone in the near future.  If my guess is true, this would be the point where we would see the first strong hints of this in story.

[digitalbusker]

One narrative function this could serve is illuminating Jasnah's decision to have Aesudan killed. I think if we get an answer to this, it's likely to be in Jasnah's flashbacks.

[Jimpy]

So I definitely think that Odium could be behind this, if anyone was.

Mistborn Spoilers

Spoiler

We've seen shards do this in the past too, with both Ruin and Preservation preparing Vin to help them win. With the foresight granted to shards these sorts of things are definitely possible to set up.

Harmony was able to do it to Wax too.

 

18 hours ago, Subvisual Haze said:

This single critical event would have a domino effect resulting in:

• the death of Moash's family and embittering of Moash 
• the exile of Roshone to Hearthstone and the eventual levying into the army and death of Tien (destroying Kaladin's "innocence") 
• Kaladin and Moash uniting in a temporary treasonous plot against Elhokar 
• Kaladin temporarily losing his bond with Syl and nearly turning against Dalinar 
• Kaladin and Moash experiencing a falling out, resulting in Moash being exiled from Bridge 4, and ultimately joining The Singers
• The death of Elhokar at Moash's hands.

Up until the falling out this sequence was going right into Odium's hands, I assume he had a plan to use this assassination to cripple his opposition. Kaladin and one of his officers killing the king? I can guarantee that Dalinar would be blamed, house Kholin would be destroyed (Oh hey that's where most of the Knights Radiant are gathering). Doing this would eliminate a Bondsmith, an Elsecaller, a Lightweaver, a Truthwatcher, and given Odium's ability with foresight it seems plausible that he could have been setting up for this. Furthermore, Kaladin (apparently the greatest soldier in the cosmere according to a WoB) would be stuck in the same position as Moash. I'm sure Odium can work with a Knight Radiant turned vengeful, we still haven't seen someone bond with an 'Odiumspren' and I'm sure it's possible.

It would really make sense if Odium was behind this, it would be stupid of a shard to not take heavy advantage of his ability to see the future, and making more powerful pawns for himself sounds like just the thing.

[JoyBlu]

On 1/15/2018 at 5:01 PM, Subvisual Haze said:

We are never given a specific reason why Jasnah was arranging for an assassination of Queen Aesudan via Liss, nor why she eventually retreats from her request opting for further observation.  If Jasnah highly suspected that Aesudan bore responsibility for the Roshone Affair (but wasn't completely certain due to Elhokar covering for her), that may be enough to make Jasnah highly consider an assassination, but then decide it needed further observation.  We learn later that Jasnah considers the stability of her family's rule to be of critical importance, thus her recognizing that Aesudan is both a terrible ruler/person and also has the blind loyalty of Elhokar would establish Aesudan as a clear risk to the family's ability to maintain power and not coming into internal conflict with one another.

 

@Subvisual Haze love your well arranged insights. Thank you for sharing.  I can’t see anything I disagree with and I feel like my eyes have been opened. I was hoping that we would find out more about why Jasnah was considering assassinating the Queen — and I think we will know someday — but not till we get Jasnah’s POV. 

I wonder if Moash’s grandparents being silversmiths have anything to do with the Cosmere and the importantance of metals on the other Cosmere planets. The one that starts with TH especially. Were they world hoppers, or at least interacted with them?  

[hypatia]

I let my thoghts fly:

Roshone was a "distant cousin" of Amaram, a member of the Sons of Honor.

He is hinted to had done something in the interests of the crown, AKA Gavilar, also Sons of Honor.

Perhaps you need silver for kickstarting a Desolation?

Now Asuedan - nonwithstanding my problem with her age about 8 years ago - what was this in OB?

Neither Navani - Gavilar's wife- nor Elhokar - his son - shows an indication to have known about this plan, but there was his daughter-in-law, who seems to have just stumbled over this secret and is furthermore able to use Gavilar's work to take a step the orginator wasn't willing to do.

I was a little bit astounded how a second row Kholin had gotten all this knowledge.

[digitalbusker]

38 minutes ago, hypatia said:

I was a little bit astounded how a second row Kholin had gotten all this knowledge

Maybe the Unmade told her, maybe Gavilar could tell she was a kindred spirit and told her what he was up to, or maybe the one person in Elhokar's immediate family who was there by choice (arguably Navani too) was brighter and more devious than Elhokar.

[hypatia]

I would prefere the variant with Gavilar trusting her, but...

This leads to the question about Asuedan original family.

To trust her I have the feeling there must be more than "Oh, a nice and clever girl, perhaps she'll think it o.k. to start chaos on Roshar...".

But who has arranged this marriage?

Navani? Gavilar?

Gavilar wanted Jasnah to marry Amaram - perhaps Asuedan was similiar, a daughter of a fellow Son of Honor? 

Restares?

At the moment he's mostly just a name, this could be a way to involve him in the actual story.

There is also the unsolved problem with the shardplate of Elhokar and the question who was responsible.

Dalinar has made the deal to look after this, but it was forgotten about other problems.

Cui bono?

The death of Elhokar should strengethen the position of his designeted ruler in absentia and the mother of the future king - Gavinor - growing up under the influence of Asuedan.

All in all - the more I think of that the more I like the idea of Asuedan being a part of this affair.

Edited January 18, 2018 by hypatia
Grammar