[OB] The Letter Theory

[Oversleep]

Preface: The most part of it is solidly grounded in facts and WoBs. You can rely on it. Some part of it is reasonable speculation, so you should not treat is as a fact, but like a theory.
Sorry it's so long.

The Letters. The one in The Way of Kings was written by Hoid to Frost (WoB), and the one in Words of Radiance was Frost's response to Hoid. The Letters are written after events of First Mistborn Era (WoB).
In Oathbringer we got three: https://coppermind.net/wiki/Letters#Oathbringer_Letters

What can we conclude about the identities of the writers and recipient? Well, the first thing is that two of them are adressed to Cephandrius - known as Hoid's alias - and the Third to "Dear Friend", but it's commonly assumed it's also adressed to Hoid.

The Third writer almost certainly is Harmony.
But my interests are in the First and Second. First, some WoBs on the topic:

Quote

Pagerunner [PENDING REVIEW]

The letters in Oathbringer. Are they all three from Shards?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Yes.

Pagerunner [PENDING REVIEW]

Is the first one, is that one we know? Is that one we've seen yet?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

They are all ones you have seen.

Pagerunner [PENDING REVIEW]

They are all ones we have seen.

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Yes. Or at least you know...

Pagerunner [PENDING REVIEW]

Have seen or know of.

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Yeah.

source

What are the Shards we have seen or know of?

• Autonomy (Vessel: Bavadin)
• Ambition (Vessel: Uli Da - WoBs: #1 #2)
• Devotion (Vessel: Aona)
• Dominion (Vessel: Skai)
• Harmony - Ruin & Preservation (Vessel: Sazed)
• Endowment (Vessel: Edgli)
• Honor (Vessel: Tanavast)
• Cultivation
• Odium (Vessel: Rayse)
• Survival Shard - unknown Shard that just wants to hide and survive
• the Shard not on a planet (NOT the Survival Shard - although take note that it's not impossible for the Survival Shard to be not on a planet)

The last two are questionable, as Brandon may be refering to the knowledge from books and not necessarily from WoBs.

But then we have another WoB that will help us narrow down the identity of the first writer:

Quote

phoenix2563 [PENDING REVIEW]

Can you drop a hint about which Shard authored the first of the letters to Hoid shown in the part 2 epigraphs [of Oathbringer]?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

You have seen their world.

source

What are the worlds we have seen?

• Taldain
• Sel
• Scadrial
• Nalthis
• Roshar (depending on how you understand "have seen" - also Ashyn and Braize)
• Threnody
• First of the Sun

Well, this excludes Shard not on a planet and possibly Ambition, as Ambition is not on Threnody. I also doubt the Shard that is hiding is on the First of the Sun, but we'll get to that later. With Harmony having written the Third and the First Letter mentioning Rayse, Aona, Skai and Uli Da by name, we're left with:

• Autonomy
• Endowment
• Honor (dead and Splintered)
• Cultivation

Judging by the fact that the Letter is supposedly a response for Hoid's plea for help against Rayse and that the writer is dissapointed that so few of the Shards kept to the agreement of not interfering with each other, we can also remove Cultivation. Which leaves us with two possible candidates:

• Autonomy
• Endowment

If we believe Khriss words in Taldain essay about Autonomy's interference with other planets, it leaves us with Endowment as having written the First Letter.
The Third Letter is written almost certainly by Harmony (I say that just because Brandon did not outright confirm that in a WoB but I doubt it's not Harmony).

Second Letter

[edit] Brandon has confirmed on 16th December that the Second Letter was written by Autonomy

So we need to update our list of who might have written the Second Letter. It also mentions Rayse, so we can cross out Odium:

• Autonomy (Vessel: Bavadin)
• Ambition (Vessel: Uli Da - WoBs: #1 #2)
• Devotion (Vessel: Aona)
• Dominion (Vessel: Skai)
• Honor (Vessel: Tanavast)
• Cultivation
• Survival Shard - unknown Shard that just wants to hide and survive
• the Shard not on a planet (NOT the Survival Shard - although take note that it's not impossible for the Survival Shard to be not on a planet)

Well, that's still a lot, isn't it? Well, let's assume that these Letters are really responses to Hoid's plea for help against Odium. It doesn't make sense then that he'd write to Rosharan Shards. We can cross out Cultivation and Honor (who is also very, very, very dead at the time of Oathbringer).
The Letter in The Way of Kings also mentions Aona and Skai being dead and their Shards Splintered, so I think we can reasonably assume nobody has Ascended to them since. Which leaves us with...

• Autonomy (Vessel: Bavadin)
• Ambition (Vessel: Uli Da - WoBs: #1 #2)
• Survival Shard - unknown Shard that just wants to hide and survive
• the Shard not on a planet (NOT the Survival Shard - although take note that it's not impossible for the Survival Shard to be not on a planet)

At that point there is no much to go off of - unless we assume Brandon in that first WoB up there at the beginning of this wall of text meant the Shards we know from books, not WoBs.

Which leaves us with only two: Autonomy and Ambition. I'm gonna analyse each separately. But first, a WoB on the topic:

Quote

Yurisses [PENDING REVIEW]

Investiture on First of the Sun is associated with a Shard?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Yes, it is. That one is even closer associated with a Shard, the actual Investiture of the magic. Remember when I say Investiture, I mean matter, energy and magic. Sometimes the word Investiture just to the magic such as the Aviar and in that it is directly associated with one of the Shards

Yurisses [PENDING REVIEW]

Which one?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Patji is a Shard of Adonalsium

Everyone in the room [PENDING REVIEW]

*Stunned silence*

Overlord Jebus [PENDING REVIEW]

Sorry, can you say that again?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Patji is a Shard of Adonalsium

Aurimus [PENDING REVIEW]

Is that one of the Aviar?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

No that is the island

Overlord Jebus [PENDING REVIEW]

Island or islands?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

The island but Patji is one of the islands.

Yurisses [PENDING REVIEW]

It's a Shard?!

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Yes, big asterisk! But yes.

Aurimus [PENDING REVIEW]

Shard as in equal or Shard as in a mass of Investiture?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

As in one of the 16 Shards of Adonalsium is represented and involved in First of the Sun. In fact, one of the letters references First of the Sun in this *Indicates to Oathbringer*

Sorry, I probably killed some theories on that one.

source

The line "That one is even closer associated with a Shard, the actual Investiture of the magic." probably refers to an earlier WoB in that event which confirmed that all Investiture in Cosmere is associated with a Shard, even if it was not on Yolen on the time of the Shattering. It got assigned to Shards, but it's not part of what the Vessel of the Shard commands.

Two important things that we can take from this WoB:

• First of the Sun has Investiture that is directly associated with a Shard and the island Patji is a Shard. With big asterisk.
• one of the letters in Oathbringer references First of the Sun

Reading through the letters, the only one left that can reference any place is the Second Letter. (Unless we take " I noticed your many intrusions into my land " from the First Letter as reference to First of the Sun, but that's another can of worms, one I do not intend to open).
It's either the place the writer is or the Obrodai that's being referenced.

For now, let's analyse possibilities of Autonomy and Ambition.

Autonomy

Certainly a fan favorite, if I may say so. Many of us believe it's Autonomy, and there are certain clues that point to it, although some of that fierce conviction seems to be based on the assumption that the Shard assaulting Scadrial during the Second Mistborn Era is Autonomy. Not an unreasonable assumption, given what we know of Autonomy meddling with other worlds (if Khriss essay on Taldain is to be believed), having multiple religions or having entire pantheons where every worshipped god is actually Bavadin.

Especially the last one seems to point in that direction, when you remember that the islands that Patji is part of are called Pantheon.

Some people believe that Autonomy's modus operandi of creating personas is the reason for why the Letter is written by a collective. It's reasonable, but personally I doubt it - there's one thing in crafting personas and letting them attract attention, but it's not a reason for Autonomy to actually be a mind collective. Which leads us to...

Ambition

That is my favorite.

Yes, Uli Da is dead, and Ambition is Splintered (WoB). But... Splintering can be a vague term sometimes. And we've seen Ambition's influence (which most of us ascribe to Shades of Threnody) and things that happened with Ambition have had ramifications across many places in the cosmere. Recently Brandon added that "this specific Splintering has had far-reaching effects" (WoB).

From essay on First of the Sun we know Khriss is certain there is no Shard there... but her essays are more contemporary (sometime after Ascension of Harmony, and definitely long before Sixth of the Dusk happens: #1 #2) and she does not know what we know about First of the Sun: #1 #2.

That is weird:

Quote

Brandon Sanderson

The problem is that [First of the Sun] is a weird planet, and visiting it from Shadesmar is-- it just-- in the Cosmere Collection I'll talk about that, okay? It's a weird planet, and getting to it is interesting. 

Questioner

Okay...

Brandon Sanderson

There's no Shard in residence, but there's a Shardpool. But it's on... one of the most dangerous places... that exists. And so, let's just say it's not going to be relevant until you can regularly travel there somehow that doesn't involve popping up into a giant death trap.

source

... since now Brandon has stated that Patji is a Shard. (With big asterisk).

Hm...

Quote

Questioner

Did Ambition ever have a Shardworld of their own?

Brandon Sanderson

[Repeats question] Meaning, did Ambition ever settle on a planet? I’ll RAFO that too.

source

Quote

Pagerunner (paraphrased)

Ambition, the Shard *inaudible*. Is that the one you previously referred to as not on a planet?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Ambition would fulfill that requirement, but that's not the one I was referring to.

source

What if Ambition is not on a planet... what if it's on planets?

What if Ambition's Splinters - maybe larger than the usual Splinters like spren or seons or skaze, but instead massive like Unmade, Nightwatcher or even Stormfather - have formed a collective mind? It would explain why the writer is speaking like a group.

Let's see what is said in the Letter:

Quote

You have spoken to one who cannot respond.

It implies mutliple beings.

Quote

We, instead, will take your communication to us – though we know not how you located us upon this world. We are indeed intrigued, for we thought it well hidden.

They are hiding part of their being on a world and were surprised and are intrigued how Hoid has managed to locate them there.

It would explain why Khriss is certain there is no Shard there - there is just a Splinter and it actively hides its presence.

Quote

Insignificant among our many realms.

They have many realms.

Quote

As the waves of the sea must continue to surge, so must our will continue resolute.
Alone.

Did you expect anything else from us? We need not suffer the interference of another.

They wish to be alone. They do not believe in interfering with another Shards - does it fit the meddling Autonomy? I don't think so.

Quote

Rayse is contained, and we care not for his prison. Indeed, we admire his initiative.

Admiration of his initiative - it would be strange if it's Ambition, right? Since Odium has mortally wounded Ambition.
But... Preservation admired Rashek just because he did not change. Even though he was a tyrant and responsible for many deaths, it was a quality to be admired.

Why then cannot Ambition admire Odium's initiative and will to act?

Quote

We also instruct that you should not return to Obrodai.  We have claimed that world

They have claimed a world - for me it fits Ambition to claim multiple worlds, to add it to their many realms.

Quote

a new avatar of our being is beginning to manifest there. She is young yet, and--as a precaution--she has been instilled with an intense and overpowering dislike of you.

If it was Autonomy, why an avatar is beginning to manifest? Autonomy's personas are more of a masks Bavadin dons. And the new avatar was instilled with some preference - it suggests truly another mind, part of Ambition's collective, and not just a persona Autonomy uses.

Quote

This is all we will say at this time. If you wish more, seek these waters in person and overcome the tests we have created.    
Only in this will you earn our respect.

This reeks of Ambition to me - for Hoid to be deemed worthy of further communication, he must prove himself by overcoming tests (perhaps getting to Patji's eye?). It's only fitting that one can earn Ambition's respect by overcoming obstacles - it's a proof of your determination, will to act, drive... ambition.

 

tl;dr: Harmony almost certainly wrote the Third Letter, the First one was written likely by Endowment and Second Letter was written either by Autonomy or Ambition (and I personally think the latter).

Second Letter is confirmed to be written by Autonomy.

Edited August 31, 2018 by Oversleep

[Calderis]

I like it a lot, and as much as most people take Autonomy as a given, I hate the idea of the letter author as Bavadin. 

A collective mind is anything but autonomous. Add that to the expansionist viewpoint of the author(s) and their respect for Rayse (which is see no other way to interpret as respect for his ambition) and the tests for Hoid to prove himself... Ambition fits in my mind much better. 

[Steeldancer]

Ok...

But why would Ambitions splinters do this? This isn't in line with what we've seen before

[+Extesian]

As I told you privately, i really like this. I was pretty firmly on the side of autonomy but you've made me rethink that. I still struggle with splinters becoming a collective mind but investiture does seek or develop sapience and those sapient pieces of investiture would be connected to each other. I did always struggle with the idea that hoid would reach out to bavadin though he may in desperation or he may have been attempting to contact one of her avatars if it is her, hoping they had an independent mind. Nicely pulled together. I'll read steelrunner's competing theory and reflect. 

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Indivergable said:

As I told you privately, i really like this. I was pretty firmly on the side of autonomy but you've made me rethink that. I still struggle with splinters becoming a collective mind but investiture does seek or develop sapience and those sapient pieces of investiture would be connected to each other. I did always struggle with the idea that hoid would reach out to bavadin though he may in desperation or he may have been attempting to contact one of her avatars if it is her, hoping they had an independent mind. Nicely pulled together. I'll read steelrunner's competing theory and reflect. 

DANCER *grumps*

[Andy92]

1 hour ago, Ookla, the Incalculable said:

A collective mind is anything but autonomous.

But we know Bavadin has many personas, no? That may not mean Bavadin's Shard acts like a hive mind, but the multiple persona part of Bavadin does seem to point towards a collective mind of some sort. 

That being said, the Ambition idea is certainly interesting. I personally feel like the Shard that's trying to survive fits the theme of a Shard being surprised that Hoid was able to find it. But as the OP said, not much we can go off of for a Shard we haven't heard of in a book before. 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Andy92

[+Extesian]

3 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

DANCER *grumps*

Lol I'm sorry man, I gotta remember this - you're a magical hybrid  you'll always be the Flash to me though

Edited December 10, 2017 by Ookla the Indivergable

[Oversleep]

5 minutes ago, Andy92 said:

But we know Bavadin has many personas, no? That may not mean Bavadin's Shard acts like a hive mind, but the multiple persona part of Bavadin does seem to point towards a collective mind of some sort. 

Just a clarification: are you going off with these personas things based on this WoB?

Quote

Brandon Sanderson

Bavadin has several male personas, and has often appeared as male for one purpose or another, so it's not that much of an issue. She has more female personas, but some of the male ones are quite popular.

This won't be relevant for a long while, but as a service to the community, let me say this: try not to get too hung up on gender, race, or even human appearance where Bavadin is concerned. There are some peoples who worship entire pantheons where every member is actually her.

(...)

I'm going to be pretty tight-lipped for now. Let's at least let White Sand finish first--you will find her in there, though her touch on the story (directly) is light. She prefers to allow her personas to become the focus of attention.

source

Because it clearly says "has often appeared as male for one purpose or another". Which means one person, choosing how to appear, for some purpose. Donning a mask, or persona, to act.
Not splitting itself into some hivemind.

That's how I read that, anyway

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

But why would Ambitions splinters do this? This isn't in line with what we've seen before

I'm not sure what you mean? We don't have a lot of experience with Splintered Shards; Devotion and Dominion were stuffed into Cognitive Realm. Honor had spren which acted like a release valve. Who knows what else can happen with Splinters?

[Calderis]

13 minutes ago, Andy92 said:

But we know Bavadin has many personas, no? That may not mean Bavadin's Shard acts like a hive mind, but the multiple persona part of Bavadin does seem to point towards a collective mind of some sort. 

Thank you. I completely disagree, but in trying to argue my point you made me realize fully why I disagree so hard. 

Quote

Brandon Sanderson

Bavadin has several male personas, and has often appeared as male for one purpose or another, so it's not that much of an issue. She has more female personas, but some of the male ones are quite popular.

This won't be relevant for a long while, but as a service to the community, let me say this: try not to get too hung up on gender, race, or even human appearance where Bavadin is concerned. There are some peoples who worship entire pantheons where every member is actually her.

Bavadin has been known to have many different personas. Many faces through which she acts. But they're all Bavadin. Not Autonomy. Bavadin. 

If this thing is Autonomy, Bavadin is gone. This is not acting. It's not playing a role. This appears to be a true collective, in that there's no sense of self, just of us. Thats not what that WoB describes. 

[harel55]

The idea of Autonomy being a collective, or of Bavadin splintering their mind like Shallan, has always rubbed me the wrong way. I feel like we're still a long way from understanding Autonomy's intent (and how it's able to reconcile it with violating the autonomy of other shards by meddling with their worlds), but this still struck me as unfitting.

This theory interests me quite a bit, because now that I think of it, there's no reason Ambition (or at least splinters thereof) shouldn't have gained sentience by now. The only reason the Dor hasn't is because it's trapped in the pressure cooker known as the Cognitive Realm, keeping it as what Sanderson describes as a "hot plasma", which doesn't sound conducive to forming consciousness. Ambition, however, was left alone after it's vessel was killed, so far as we know. It totally should be developing consciousness, like Sanderson has told us uncontrolled Investiture does.

As for why it would form a collective, rather than separate consciousnesses like the spren of Honor or the seons of Devotion, perhaps it's because being in the depths of space meant there was no human thought giving them shape in the way that the Rosharans shaped the spren. Instead, the bits of Ambition each formed a consciousness, but still considered themselves to be Ambition, instead of embodying some concept. Thus, we would end up with multiple minds who all consider themselves to be extensions of the same entity.

I'm still not sure exactly how I feel about this theory, but I'm intrigued.

[Fifth of Daybreak]

13 hours ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

They wish to be alone. They do not believe in interfering with another Shards - does it fit the meddling Autonomy? I don't think so.

This contradiction is actually noted by Khriss on-screen, and also seems to be a huge cornerstone of your theory. We have evidence that Autonomy does want to be alone from the isolationist policies set up in Taldain.

Quote

Autonomy’s policy of isolationism in recent times (in direct contrast to her interference with other planets, I might add) has prevented travel to and from Taldain for many, many years.

Arcanum Unbounded Taldain System

 

Quote

13 hours ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

Why then cannot Ambition admire Odium's initiative and will to act?

 

For me, Odium would have to be picking up Shards to satisfy Ambitions intent enough to admire him. Granted this is far more about persona interpretation than contradiction by evidence, but to splinter power instead of taking it up for yourself seems to go against the very nature of ambition, and would, Imo, would draw disdain from an Ambition based being. 

13 hours ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

If it was Autonomy, why an avatar is beginning to manifest? Autonomy's personas are more of a masks Bavadin dons. And the new avatar was instilled with some preference - it suggests truly another mind, part of Ambition's collective, and not just a persona Autonomy uses.

Is this bolded selection confirmed somewhere? Searching through WoB I don't see anything that really implies either way.

10 hours ago, Ookla, the Incalculable said:

If this thing is Autonomy, Bavadin is gone. This is not acting. It's not playing a role. This appears to be a true collective, in that there's no sense of self, just of us. Thats not what that WoB describes. 

I don't necessarily agree with this without understanding who or what Bavadin was before Ascension. It's quite possible that was how Bavadin acted pre-ascension as well due to be a non-human race that we haven't met yet. (Not likely, but possible.) I'm hesitant to say that Bavadin is gone without ever having seen Bavadin before. Consider this WoB

Quote

Questioner

Yeah, coz, I really, I just like kind of the idea of the Shards and stuff, and I guess I want to learn more about what they look like and, kind of their personalities and stuff.

Brandon Sanderson

Bavadin's a hard one, because what does Bavadin look like? Bavadin looks like what she feels like looking like, or what he feels like looking like, depending upon the day.

So Bavadin is able to look and appear however they want. Bear with me and make an assumption that Bavadin's personas as a part of their personality were around pre-ascension. With the nature of Shard magic, that the bull of their power resides in the spiritual realm, and is therefore never disconnected from the rest of the Shard, to me, it actually makes perfect sense that Bavadin might be interested in creating actual autonomous avatars for those personas who existed prior to Ascension. At that point, I'd argue it's inappropriate to say they aren't Bavadin because it's a hive mind, the hive mind is Bavadin by design, composition and intention. 

Moving on to a separate note, I also think this makes the most sense with Padtji and what we've seen of Autonomy's influence on Taldain. My guess for how this works is that Bavadin finds a planet that has some prominent feature that could be worshipped, like the sun on Taldain or the island of Padtji, then invests enough of theirself into it to make a splinter/Avatar in the hive mind that's fully connected to Autonomy through the spiritual realm but is allowed its own measure of independent thought and will due to a combination of Bavadin's personality from pre-ascension and that Shard's intent. Obrodai would have a relatively young Avatar. 

Finally, I think there's a part of the letter that kills the theory flat out:

Quote

You must know better than to approach us by relying upon presumption of past relationship.

 

13 hours ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

What if Ambition's Splinters - maybe larger than the usual Splinters like spren or seons or skaze, but instead massive like Unmade, Nightwatcher or even Stormfather - have formed a collective mind? It would explain why the writer is speaking like a group.

If Ambition is writing the letter after having reformed sentience from the Splinters after Odium's attack, then there should be no past relationship between the newly sentient shard of Ambition and Hoid. The Shard should not be addressing Hoid as Cephandrius or reference the First Gem, as those events would pre-date awakening into sentience. It just doesn't seem to work.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Ookla the Obtuse

[Oversleep]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

This contradiction is actually noted by Khriss on-screen, and also seems to be a huge cornerstone of your theory. We have evidence that Autonomy does want to be alone from the isolationist policies set up in Taldain.

The writer of the Letter does not want to do any interference. "We need not suffer interference of another" - refers the pact that Shards formed:

Quote

It was agreed that we would not interfere with one another, and it disappoints me that so few of the Shards have kept to this original agreement.

Autonomy violates this left and right. It does not fit the writer.

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

For me, Odium would have to be picking up Shards to satisfy Ambitions intent enough to admire him. Granted this is far more personal, but to splinter power instead of taking it up for yourself seems to go against the very nature of ambition, and would, Imo, would draw disdain from an Ambition based being. 

I disagree. Preservation wanted to protect people - Rashek executed them, yet Leras still admired his resistance to change. (I actually explained it in OP)

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

Is this bolded selection confirmed somewhere? Searching through WoB I don't see anything that really implies either way.

Just read up a bit:

11 hours ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

Just a clarification: are you going off with these personas things based on this WoB?

Quote

Brandon Sanderson

Bavadin has several male personas, and has often appeared as male for one purpose or another, so it's not that much of an issue. She has more female personas, but some of the male ones are quite popular.

This won't be relevant for a long while, but as a service to the community, let me say this: try not to get too hung up on gender, race, or even human appearance where Bavadin is concerned. There are some peoples who worship entire pantheons where every member is actually her.

(...)

I'm going to be pretty tight-lipped for now. Let's at least let White Sand finish first--you will find her in there, though her touch on the story (directly) is light. She prefers to allow her personas to become the focus of attention.

source

Because it clearly says "has often appeared as male for one purpose or another". Which means one person, choosing how to appear, for some purpose. Donning a mask, or persona, to act.
Not splitting itself into some hivemind.

That's how I read that, anyway

People are blowing up this persona thing out of proportion while there is not much to go off - even the core WoB for that actually goes against this split mind thing.

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

Finally, I think there's a part of the letter that kills the theory flat out:

Quote

You must know better than to approach us by relying upon presumption of past relationship.

13 hours ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

What if Ambition's Splinters - maybe larger than the usual Splinters like spren or seons or skaze, but instead massive like Unmade, Nightwatcher or even Stormfather - have formed a collective mind? It would explain why the writer is speaking like a group.

If Ambition is writing the letter after having reformed sentience from the Splinters after Odium's attack, then there should be no past relationship between the newly sentient shard of Ambition and Hoid. The Shard should not be addressing Hoid as Cephandrius or reference the First Gem, as those events would pre-date awakening into sentience. It just doesn't seem to work.

This is very simple - Uli Da surely would have left a Cognitive Shadow (fitting for a Vessel of Ambition to survive even beyond death) with the Shard (similarly Stormfather has merged with Honor's/Tanavast's Cognitive Shadow). Even without CS seeing past is far more simple than seeing the future (a thing a lot of Shards are at least moderately good at) - you just need to read past Connections.

[Fifth of Daybreak]

18 minutes ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

The writer of the Letter does not want to do any interference. "We need not suffer interference of another" - refers the pact that Shards formed:

In context, by how I understand, this more directly refers to Hoid's interference contacting them than Rayse, as it precedes any mention of Rayse and follows an explanation of how they want to go on alone, presumably without forming an alliance.

Quote

As the waves of the sea must continue to surge, so must our will continue resolute. 
Alone. 

Did you expect anything else from us? We need not suffer the interference of another. 

I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I understand his suffering if interference refers to Hoid's meddling with the Shards. That quote you cited about the pact is from a separate letter, not the one in question, so There's nothing Linking the two statements.

Quote

Autonomy violates this left and right. It does not fit the writer.

Which fits exactly with what Khriss notes in the Arcanum Unbounded section on Taldain. Autonomy wants to meddle while being left alone. I'm a little confused because you don't seem to address the point I'm making here. Is there a way I can clarify my point better to help bridge our communication problem in this respect?

 

18 minutes ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

People are blowing up this persona thing out of proportion while there is not much to go off - even the core WoB for that actually goes against this split mind thing.

I've read the thread and I've read all the WoB on Autonomy and Bavadin both. I was asking if there is more information beyond what I stated in my earlier post that confirms your interpretation. Does such information exist?

If it does not, would you mind walking me through the logic that says that that WoB goes against the mind split thing? I have given my own explanation in my earlier post for how this works with the information we have, is there something from that you don't find plausible or satisfying?

18 minutes ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

This is very simple - Uli Da surely would have left a Cognitive Shadow (fitting for a Vessel of Ambition to survive even beyond death) with the Shard (similarly Stormfather has merged with Honor's/Tanavast's Cognitive Shadow). Even without CS seeing past is far more simple than seeing the future (a thing a lot of Shards are at least moderately good at) - you just need to read past Connections.

If the splinters are forming a hive mind, how can it be a cognitive Shadow of Ambition? That seems self contradictory. If Bavadin, who we know has multiple personas already, cannot be theirself because it seems to speak with a hive mind, surely that exception extends to a cognitive Shadow viewing itself as having a past relationship with Hoid despite being Splintered into a Hive mind that sees itself a separately distinct avatars in a hive mind. "If it's good for the goose it's good for the gander."

Edited December 10, 2017 by Ookla the Obtuse

[Andy92]

I feel like the 2nd Letter fits the theme of a Shard that's just trying to survive (doesn't want to meddle with others, is surprised Hoid found it/them). The hard part with this is that Brandon said it's a Shard we know of...whether or not he means we know of the Shard from a book or from WoB makes it tough to tell if the "survival Shard" qualifies or not. 

[Calderis]

3 hours ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

If the splinters are forming a hive mind, how can it be a cognitive Shadow of Ambition? That seems self contradictory. If Bavadin, who we know has multiple personas already, cannot be theirself because it seems to speak with a hive mind, surely that exception extends to a cognitive Shadow viewing itself as having a past relationship with Hoid despite being Splintered into a Hive mind that sees itself a separately distinct avatars in a hive mind. "If it's good for the goose it's good for the gander."

I don't think the Cognitive Shadow is needed at all. Hoid has had contact with Adonalsium and all the Shards. There's connection there to be read. 

When Sazed picked up the power, he intuitively learned its history. In Elantris, the Shardpool speaks with Aona's voice, even though we know she dead and gone. The power itself has a record, even without the Vessel itself. 

As to your earlier response to me about Bavadin, I'll agree to disagree. There are 3 sapient races from Yolen, and if the naming structure is correct (Sho Del, Uli Da, Etc.) the  Bavadin isn't Sho Del, which would place her as either Human or Dragon. Both of which we've seen speak in a normal syntaxes in reference to the self. 

[Toaster Retribution]

Hah! I find it funny that Ambition seems to be so beloved by everyone. It appears in theories everywhere. I'd actually say that both Bavadin and Ambition are fan favorites. 

As for the theory itself, it makes a whole lot of sense, I have to say. I like how it fits with Ambitions themes: surviving beyond death, claiming worlds, and so on. It also works well with a bunch of WoBs we have, and Bavadins apparent hive-mind has itched me as well. I like it the more I consider it, actually. That said, I can see two points against it:

1. Bavadin likes to hijack religions, and to be worshipped. Patji is worshipped, at least by Dusk. That kind of makes it fit well with Autonomy, and the Shard that wrote the hive-mind Letter is most likely the one that is hanging around First of the Sun, since the Letter contains references to waves and water. 

2. Wouldn't Odium have attempted to stop this from happening, somehow. After all, he shoved Dominion and Devotion into the CR in order to prevent their power from being taken up. Wouldn't he have predicted that this could happen?

I also want to address this real quick:

4 hours ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

It was agreed that we would not interfere with one another, and it disappoints me that so few of the Shards have kept to this original agreement

I don't know if you misquoted here, but this is part of the first Letter (most likely written by Endowment). You may have acknowledged that, and in that case, I apologize for calling you out on this.

[Calderis]

3 minutes ago, Toaster Retribution said:

2. Wouldn't Odium have attempted to stop this from happening, somehow. After all, he shoved Dominion and Devotion into the CR in order to prevent their power from being taken up. Wouldn't he have predicted that this could happen?

If he'd splintered the Shard, he may not have foreseen this as a possibility. Something has definitely changed recently. In OB he speaks as though just splintering isn't enough and the fragments of Honor's power must be dealt with. Ambition, if this is true and he is aware of it, could be a very good reason for that change. 

[Toaster Retribution]

Just now, Ookla, the Incalculable said:

If he'd splintered the Shard, he may not have foreseen this as a possibility. Something has definitely changed recently. In OB he speaks as though just splintering isn't enough and the fragments of Honor's power must be dealt with. Ambition, if this is true and he is aware of it, could be a very good reason for that change. 

Very good point. I like this theory better and better. 

Fun thing, you actually interrupted me while I was reading your theory of Intent. Time to get back to that now. 

[Fifth of Daybreak]

33 minutes ago, Ookla, the Incalculable said:

The power itself has a record, even without the Vessel itself. 

I'm still not sure how this satisfies Hoid choosing to approach them by relying on presumption of past relationship. To me, that seems to say that Hoid has a past relationship with this being for him to presume upon when he spoke to them. If this is a new being, even with reading Connection, why would Hoid have a past relationship to presume upon? There are a lot of contextual clues that support a previous personal relationship between them, the formal greeting by use of Cephandrius and title. The subtle insult in the use of "you must know better" and "did you expect anything else." The precautionary instillation of a dislike of him in their new Avatar on Obradai especially would fit someone whom we know Hoid has a grudge on.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Ookla the Obtuse

[Raykoda]

Here's another problem with Ambition: If Hoid is trying to drum up support for his battle against Odium, why ask just a tiny CS/splinter/whatever? He's been asking just shards for a reason: they're big, powerful, and can come over to Roshar to help out. But if what Hoid is talking to is just a splinter, how's that going to help?

Yeah, not the most powerful arguments, but I personally think that it being Ambition is a little bit of a stretch.

[Borio Singaldi]

I've come to the assumption that the author of the Second Letter is Autonomy, but that Bavadin herself is not the author. As it clearly says in the letter:

Quote

You have spoken to one who cannot respond.

Aaand yet there's a response to Hoid's letter anyway. From who? I think the letter was written to Bavadin, but it was one of the many servants of Autonomy who responded on her behalf, because (as they said) their leader can't respond. The servant answered for Autonomy, who was preoccupied with other matters, writing what she would have said. Why wouldn't Autonomy have been able to respond? The answer to that sounds like a RAFO waiting to happen to me, 'cause how are we supposed to know what Bavadin's up to during the SA?

Also, another point:

Quote

We need not suffer the interference of another.

If one wishes to not have others interfere with their matters, you could say they're being pretty autonomous. I think they way that Shard is working is that she is perfectly okay with interfering with others, but doesn't want others to interfere with her.

And another thing that's probably already been surmised:

Quote

Indeed, we admire his initiative.

Sounds like the tone of one who is more inclined to Odium's side. Which we know Autonomy may have been:

Quote

Moridin997 (paraphrased)

Did Bavadin in any way help Odium splinter Dominion and Devotion?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Uhh...

Moridin997 (paraphrased)

(sensing an incoming RAFO): In any way...

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Uhh... Yes... Yes, you could say that...

 

So while I questioned it at first, I'm pretty sure the author is Autonomy. I'm not trying to say it isn't Ambition in any way, since the OP makes some very good supporting points about that that I don't exactly subscribe to but are quite logical and acceptable.

Just my three cents on the topic. (I say "three cents" 'cause that's literally all the money I have left, teehee.)

[Oversleep]

Some responses for you all!

10 hours ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

In context, by how I understand, this more directly refers to Hoid's interference contacting them than Rayse, as it precedes any mention of Rayse and follows an explanation of how they want to go on alone, presumably without forming an alliance.

Quote

As the waves of the sea must continue to surge, so must our will continue resolute. 
Alone. 

Did you expect anything else from us? We need not suffer the interference of another. 

I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I understand his suffering if interference refers to Hoid's meddling with the Shards. That quote you cited about the pact is from a separate letter, not the one in question, so There's nothing Linking the two statements.

I think it's very clear that the writer of the Second is refering to the pact that was mentioned in the quote from the First I brought up. I know that what I quoted is from the first Letter, it was my intention to show the link.

10 hours ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

Quote

Autonomy violates this left and right. It does not fit the writer.

Which fits exactly with what Khriss notes in the Arcanum Unbounded section on Taldain. Autonomy wants to meddle while being left alone. I'm a little confused because you don't seem to address the point I'm making here.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Rusty said:

If one wishes to not have others interfere with their matters, you could say they're being pretty autonomous. I think they way that Shard is working is that she is perfectly okay with interfering with others, but doesn't want others to interfere with her.

The writer of the Second Letter wishes to be left alone and refuses to interfere at all. Meanwhile Autonomy is very active with interfering with other Shards.

10 hours ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

I've read the thread and I've read all the WoB on Autonomy and Bavadin both. I was asking if there is more information beyond what I stated in my earlier post that confirms your interpretation. Does such information exist?

That's the thing - all that craziness about Bavadin comes from that single WoB. Which - in my opinion - was misinterpreted and then some theories got popular and now people think Bavadin is a hive mind.
(that's why my user title is what it is)

There are two other WoBs tangentially related to it:

Quote

Don't even get me started on Bavadin's religions.

source

Quote

Questioner

Yeah, coz, I really, I just like kind of the idea of the Shards and stuff, and I guess I want to learn more about what they look like and, kind of their personalities and stuff.

Brandon Sanderson

Bavadin's a hard one, because what does Bavadin look like? Bavadin looks like what she feels like looking like, or what he feels like looking like, depending upon the day.

source

So, basically we know that Bavadin has mutliple religions in which he is worshipped, and that she can choose how to appear (not really surprising for a Shard).

10 hours ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

If it does not, would you mind walking me through the logic that says that that WoB goes against the mind split thing? I have given my own explanation in my earlier post for how this works with the information we have, is there something from that you don't find plausible or satisfying?

Okay. The WoB in question:

10 hours ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

Brandon Sanderson

Bavadin has several male personas, and has often appeared as male for one purpose or another, so it's not that much of an issue. She has more female personas, but some of the male ones are quite popular.

This won't be relevant for a long while, but as a service to the community, let me say this: try not to get too hung up on gender, race, or even human appearance where Bavadin is concerned. There are some peoples who worship entire pantheons where every member is actually her.

(...)

I'm going to be pretty tight-lipped for now. Let's at least let White Sand finish first--you will find her in there, though her touch on the story (directly) is light. She prefers to allow her personas to become the focus of attention.

source

For me the wording is very clearly indicating that Bavadin can choose how to appear and utilises it - hence the bit about "for one purpose or another" - and that Bavadin prefers to let his masks gather attention. Not unlike Shallan or Wayne, who adopt an act, down to the specific mindset, for some purpose (granted, Shallan has problems on top of that).

Nothing here indicates that Bavadin is not a single being.

10 hours ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

If the splinters are forming a hive mind, how can it be a cognitive Shadow of Ambition? That seems self contradictory. If Bavadin, who we know has multiple personas already, cannot be theirself because it seems to speak with a hive mind, surely that exception extends to a cognitive Shadow viewing itself as having a past relationship with Hoid despite being Splintered into a Hive mind that sees itself a separately distinct avatars in a hive mind. "If it's good for the goose it's good for the gander."

I mostly agree with points Calderis made. Also - if there is a CS of Uli Da - it's possible only one Splinter has it, or perhaps they divided it. It's one thing for a living being to split itself, it's a whole another thing to split an imprint left behind in Investiture.

6 hours ago, Toaster Retribution said:

Hah! I find it funny that Ambition seems to be so beloved by everyone. It appears in theories everywhere. I'd actually say that both Bavadin and Ambition are fan favorites. 

I meant "fan favorite" as in "favorite theory for the identity of the writer of the Letter"

6 hours ago, Toaster Retribution said:

Bavadin likes to hijack religions, and to be worshipped.

Eh, do we? I only found WoBs that Bavadin has multiple religions, some of which have pantheons where every god is her. Claiming that Autonomy's MO is hijacking religions is a whole another step. It's a theory, not an unreasonable one, but not a fact.

6 hours ago, Toaster Retribution said:

Wouldn't Odium have attempted to stop this from happening, somehow. After all, he shoved Dominion and Devotion into the CR in order to prevent their power from being taken up. Wouldn't he have predicted that this could happen?

I agree with Calderis' response. Another option is that Ambition managed to flee, or that Odium was sure it's dead and had more pressing matters to attend to... who knows.

5 hours ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

I'm still not sure how this satisfies Hoid choosing to approach them by relying on presumption of past relationship. To me, that seems to say that Hoid has a past relationship with this being for him to presume upon when he spoke to them. If this is a new being, even with reading Connection, why would Hoid have a past relationship to presume upon?

That would be the thing - that Hoid foolishly presumes upon relationship with Uli Da, who is no more.

5 hours ago, Raykoda said:

Here's another problem with Ambition: If Hoid is trying to drum up support for his battle against Odium, why ask just a tiny CS/splinter/whatever? He's been asking just shards for a reason: they're big, powerful, and can come over to Roshar to help out. But if what Hoid is talking to is just a splinter, how's that going to help?

Yeah, not the most powerful arguments, but I personally think that it being Ambition is a little bit of a stretch.

I think he's fine with any help he can get - and in my theory it's not just a tiny Splinter, it's a interlinked net of very big Splinters (on similar level as Stormfather, or even bigger).

1 hour ago, Ookla the Rusty said:

I've come to the assumption that the author of the Second Letter is Autonomy, but that Bavadin herself is not the author.

The first WoB I quoted stated that all three Letters are from Shards. I doubt Brandon would say that if it was someone speaking on behalf of the Shard.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Rusty said:

Sounds like the tone of one who is more inclined to Odium's side.

Not necessarily, as I have explained up there:

On 10.12.2017 at 2:26 AM, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

Admiration of his initiative - it would be strange if it's Ambition, right? Since Odium has mortally wounded Ambition.
But... Preservation admired Rashek just because he did not change. Even though he was a tyrant and responsible for many deaths, it was a quality to be admired.

Why then cannot Ambition admire Odium's initiative and will to act?

Also,

1 hour ago, Ookla the Rusty said:

Which we know Autonomy may have been:

This WoB confirms nothing. "In any way" and "you could say that" means very little:

Quote

Questioner

My question's about Secret History, specifically it's kind of a two-parter. The first part's easier to answer. Is it relevant that the glowing substance that Hoid puts on his oar is very similarly described as the same stuff that the Ire drink, the glowing--

Brandon Sanderson

Yeah, that is relevant.

Questioner

And does it have to do with Connection.

Brandon Sanderson

Ah… *sighs* Yes, but not the way you're thinking. That's a "I'm wiggling out of..." Yes, it has to do with Connection, but so does a dog. Cause a dog is Connected to things. *laughs in the audience* You said "does it have to do with"! The answer is yes.

source

When Brandon says stuff like that, it's usually him wiggling out of something.

Whew, that was long!

Edited December 11, 2017 by Ookla the Indefatigable

[Fifth of Daybreak]

@Ookla the Indefatigable

I think I have come to a point where I'll have to agree to disagree. I don't think there's a clear connection between that statement and the pact. I don't see any evidence from the text of the second letter that that Shard refuses to interfere with anyone if that link doesn't exist. Given that the Stormfather was an intentional Splinter of Honor before it became his cognitive Shadow, and that was Bonding with an existing being that already existed before hand in the Stormfather, and he's still pretty lacking in the memories department, I find the idea of Uli Da surviving in some way very tenuous. For Hoid to presume that a Shard that became sentient on it's own would retain the personality and relationship from Uli Da is also a reach for me. 

I had just finished typing this up and trying to find a WoB about Shards and intent after the holder dies when I stumbled on this one, which I'd say is pretty conclusive on the topic.

Spoiler

Mobile problems can't delete

Quote

Pagerunner (paraphrased)

Ambition, the Shard *inaudible*. Is that the one you previously referred to as not on a planet?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Ambition would fulfill that requirement, but that's not the one I was referring to.

 

Edited December 11, 2017 by Ookla the Obtuse

[Oversleep]

43 minutes ago, Ookla the Obtuse said:

I had just finished typing this up and trying to find a WoB about Shards and intent after the holder dies when I stumbled on this one, which I'd say is pretty conclusive on the topic.

You realize I have that WoB up there?

[Fifth of Daybreak]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Indefatigable said:

You realize I have that WoB up there?

I had forgotten in the ensuing conversation. That's my fault entirely I apologize.