Mid-Range Game 25: Lowborn Intrigue

[Walin]

Huh. Would you look at that.

[Sart]

Gahaha! Well, I didn't actually participate in this, but I still feel a sense of accomplishment. Just need to carry this momentum forward. And if it turns out Jondesu was a N1 scan, so Joe's attacks looked really suspicious, then history would be repeating itself again.

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, I just want to say that my vote on Jondesu was made because I had no suspicions of my own, Joe had seemed village-y enough in PMs (though, I do always fall for him as a wolf in Wolfia ), and because I knew I probably wasn't getting on again before the end of the cycle. 

Also, I'm gonna be very inactive the next few days because we have a band contest tomorrow, midterms are Thursday and Friday, we have a game Friday, and then there's another contest on Saturday. Even if I get on at all, don't expect much from me.

[Lemonelon]

Oh wow!! I didn't expect that! Well.. yay for D1 lynch!

[Darkness Ascendant]

@A Joe in the Bush Why, I let you off with that quip, and you betray me like that?

When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night

(For clarity, Joe started our pm with the opening lines ) 

Didn't seem to do much Eavesdropping Joe

---------------------

Anyway, so we got an elim, I don't know what do do on a whim.

I hope we'll win. I'll try not to sin.

Just dancing on the rim, I think they need another trim.

My light bulb is dim. At least prospects aren't grim.

[DeTess]

Tenodin hated chasm duty.

It wasn’t just the oppressive nature of the chasms, or the fact that they were looking for corpses to loot, or the fact that if they got really unlucky a hungry chasm fiend would make a meal out of them. Tenodin could handle all that.

No, it was the fact that the eastern sky was obscured. For all any of them knew, a highstorm was sneaking up on them to crush and drown them while they were out in the open. Oh, sure, one of them Stormwardens had probably said that no storm was coming, but Tenodin didn’t believe in that. Stormwardens had failed him before, after all.

He was shaken out of his dark thoughts by a shout from one of the other bridgemen. Apparently a number of claw-marks had been found on one of the walls and everyone was supposed to be looking out for a chasm-fiend. Ah, well, that’s better than a highstorm at least. It probably wouldn’t catch us all….

---

4 hours ago, Walin said:

Huh. Would you look at that.

My thoughts exactly.

There's a couple of things we can learn from this event. First off,  the elims probably don't have an active vote manipulator right now. If they had one then I can't see why they wouldn't have used that power to at least put Joe and Jondesu on an equal amount of votes. Of course, that doesn't mean they don't have one, as there's a couple of players currently not active, so if it suddenly starts to seem like the elims do have some form of vote manipulation going then we should look at who was not active over the last cycle.

Secondly, the Jondesu vote. I feel even more convinced that there was some sort of foul play going on there, which makes me even more suspicious of Striker. Walin also stands out because of his attempts to try and protect Joe. In particular, he said this which makes me wonder:

Quote

The same guy who convinced me to not bluff as an eliminator made the point that every time a lynch happens C1, it never ends well. Why should we go through the ordeal of bandwagon lynching a random person, when statistically they turn out a villager? The evidence against everyone is weak enough to be explained as inattention or carelessness, not a Freudian slip.

From Joe's post we know that he was this guy. I can't remember where Joe stands on the C1 lynch discussion, so I can't judge if this comment seems out-of-character for him. What I'm most wondering about is why he said it if he is an elim and was fully intending on capitalizing on the D1 lynch. it makes me wonder whether Walin is using the fact that Joe supposedly said this to cover himself in case he can't stop the Joe lynch. It's a somewhat tenuous suspicion, and it isn't helped by the fact that the doc is apparently inaccessible during the day (so we know this wasn't a case of talking the doc). Still, if anyone knows where Joe stands normally in regard to C1 lynches, I'd appreciate it if you could share that info.

[Arinian]

Joe *facepalm*. I know, you specially died so fast that I would be unable to participate in your lynch 

I haven't read previous day so I don't have much to say, sooo thoughts later 

[Jondesu]

Wow, that’s awesome. Makes me glad I didn’t actually get back here in time to trade roles with Joe last cycle. Anyone that did, best of luck.

[Megasif]

Oh that was a surprise. From my reading of day 1, I thought for sure Joe was village. I didn't expect an elim to make a push like that D1. 

This leads me on to this:

5 hours ago, randuir said:

Secondly, the Jondesu vote. I feel even more convinced that there was some sort of foul play going on there, which makes me even more suspicious of Striker. Walin also stands out because of his attempts to try and protect Joe

I can't totally disagree with this because I wasn't expecting elims to make a push like that D1 but it happened. But because it happened, I don't think the elims would risk jumping on the bandwagon that soon exactly because that would make us suspicious of the early voters. But again, they might be playing really aggressive this game. So right now, I dont think it's impossible but unlikely. 

[Jondesu]

I think that was a calculated risk on Joe's part that just didn't pay off.  I know when I've been an Elim I've sometimes made analysis lists like that, not truly hunting for Elims obviously, but looking for anything I can call out as a reasonable reason to be suspicious of them, and locked onto similar types of things.  Doing it based on the PM only, and with his somewhat contradictory positions, was what got him in the end.

EDIT: Oh, and I hope I'm fairly well cleared now.  I know there's no guarantee, but sacrificing a teammate to be potentially cleared wouldn't usually be worth it D1, and Joe wasn't planning on dropping out from anything I saw anyways, so it wasn't just taking advantage of a situation.  I think it's safe to say that if I was an Elim, Joe wouldn't have gone after me quite like that.

---

Div didn't bother grumbling as the bridgemen headed to the chasms.  It wasn't going to change anything, and since he fully expected to die here on a bridge crew, he didn't figure it mattered whether he got eaten by a chasmfiend, lost in the chasms, or shot by a Parshendi arrow.  Scratch that, getting lost and wandering around to die slowly didn't sound good, but he figured if it came to that he'd find a way to make it end quicker.

It was what he deserved for what he'd done anyways.  Avasha, I'm sorry.

Edited October 25, 2017 by Jondesu

[DrakeMarshall]

G'day people.

Well huh. I don't think I've ever helped catch out an elim on the first day. Not half bad.

Statistically, a successful D1 lynch dramatically increases our odds of catching more elims.

I should probably, like, do an analysis of last cycle soon. And start my RP 

For now, I gotta run though. Back soon.

[manukos]

wow nice going , i do have to admit that i am somewhat disapointed , it is moments like this that make my no d1 lynching atitude fail to critisism 
i would like to add that he pmed me as well asking me for my thoughts on the game and what to expect from the elims . i told him the same thing i posted and he seemed not to agree , which now looking back is a good thing .
i think that the 2 who voted for jon are our prime suspects but i kinda doubt that the elims would join a bandwagon so early in the game 
not much more to add about the day , BR , straw drake and jon i belive are almost guaranteed to be good but i still have ptsd from my last game with orloc so i will not be absolute

 

[Walin]

I’m forgetting to PM a lot of people. Anyways, sorry to bust the theorizing, @randuir but the guy who convinced me not to start bluffing or lynch the first cycle was my identical twin brother who doesn’t have an account, but browsed some SE lately.

Second anyways, I’m thinking I probably won’t be very active on the thread for the next few days; I’m on mobile so I can’t color my text, but I’m out of town until Sunday afternoon.

Third anyways, here’s my RP for the night:

Nerkel checked the bodies. They rarely had any spheres, but it was welcome when they did. It brought more light into the chasms during the dark scavenging, removing some of the eeriness of the task. He always found it hard to joke after chasm duty. And after runs. And in the afternoon, when he saw bridgemen in other barracks sitting morosely instead of stressfully pacing, like Bridge 11. Tenodin seemed to dislike chasm duty as much as Nerkel did, though he was less talkative.

If only this whole poisoning thing didn’t happen, this bridge crew would be more cooperative, Nerkel internally monologued. That, and maybe if I didn’t discourage conversation by punctuating every sentence with a joke. Heh.

[Shqueeves]

I'm going to be honest, I believed Joe to be village. The fact that he was an elim AND we were able to lynch him D1 really surprises me. 

[TheMightyLopen]

Night 1 is over! Day 2 will be up soon-ish.

[TheMightyLopen]

                                                                                                             Day 2

Bridge 11 had decided that after what they'd been through the previous day, a night at a tavern was well deserved. They were enjoying their drinks, and a few of them had even struck up some conversation between themselves, happily forgetting their current circumstances.

Div wasn't one of those. He sat in a corner by himself, sipping at his drink every now and then. Suddenly, he found he couldn't swallow. He collapsed to the floor, gasping and clawing at his throat. He started coughing up blood, then lay still.

"D-Div, are...are you dead?" one of the bridge crew asked.

One of Div's eyes fluttered open a little. "That's the stupidest question I've ever heard," he croaked. "It would take a lot more than that to kill me."

"Somebody get this man another drink!" someone in the crowd yelled out.

"I'll take anything besides what I just had," Div said, getting a few chuckles from the bridge crew. Most of them had dark looks on their faces however, as it was clear that there were more killers among them. No one slept very well that night.

---

Jondesu was attacked, but survived!

No more PM's.

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Darkness (Nuatoma Akihiko)
2. Randuir (Tenodin)
3. Straw (An Explosive Gerbil)
4. Brightness Radiant (undecided)
5. Hemalurgic Headshot (Kurt Barnacles)
6. Jondesu (Div)
7. Sami (Reddathan)
8. Roadwalker (Silver Feather)
9. Drake Marshall (Pashul)
10. Lemonelon (Ellenie)
11. StrikerEZ (Ardenal)
12. Walin (Nerkel)
13. Arinian (blank)
14. Sart (Mortago)
15. Megasif (Kohl)
16. OrlokTsubodai (Locke Tekiel)
17. Manukos (manukosokunam)
18. Eternum (Deral)
19. Shqueeves (Melb)
20. Joe in a Bush (Jost Joslin) Spy Eavesdropper

 

Edited October 26, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[Walin]

Some theories:

Jondesu is a Tough Spy, thus the elims decided to do a WGG. Probably not though.

Jondesu is village, and a Village Assassin tried to KO him because he seemed suspicious. Maybe, but unlikely.

Jondesu is village, and the elims have an Assassin or Poisoned Guardsman they’re using for their KO’s. He was just the first. Possible, and a little more likely.

I hope posting an analysis doesn’t make me suspicious like Joe in the Bush...

[Sami]

Woah so sorry guys I've been insanely busy and been neglecting the Shard badly 

I'm alive! I'll read all the backlog and stuff shortly.

[Darkness Ascendant]

@Walin Have you played Mafia/ SE before? I haven't seen you before.

[manukos]

my mind tells me Jon = villager 100% confirmed 360 noscope (dont ask it is a weird brain ) but my instict still has ptsd from last game 
now even if i am not convinced that the elms would had bandwagoned that early in the game i do belive that they are our best source of information . so i will go with walin , cos striker voted at the start and wasnt active the rest of the cycle , to see the shift of opinions . As for walin puting a vote in at the last minuite to save someone someone when it is very likely for them to die , could be a mistake a first time elim would make 

[DeTess]

More thoughts in a couple of hours, but I'm fairly convinced Jondesu is village. The elim attack makes a lot of sense given that Jondesu would be considered cleared village so killing him would give the village the least amount of info.

A wgg would not be inconceivable, but it would be rather wasteful to target Jondesu, given that most people already trusted him. That having been said, if we do have a merchant I wouldn't mind it if they could scan Jon to be sure. That's just paranoia speaking though, so make up your own mind in this regard.

4 hours ago, Walin said:

Some theories:

Jondesu is a Tough Spy, thus the elims decided to do a WGG. Probably not though.

Jondesu is village, and a Village Assassin tried to KO him because he seemed suspicious. Maybe, but unlikely.

Jondesu is village, and the elims have an Assassin or Poisoned Guardsman they’re using for their KO’s. He was just the first. Possible, and a little more likely.

I hope posting an analysis doesn’t make me suspicious like Joe in the Bush...

I'm pretty sure this is a case of tough player meets elim kill. If the elims had a second kill there's no reason they wouldn't use both, especially after our early success. Also, from a balance standpoint it is fairly unlikely that the elims have two kills in a game as small as this unless there's a lot of protection and people with 'tough' around.

And Walin, if analyzing made one suspicious, I'd be lynched C1 of most games(I've never been lynched C1). Why do you think the fact that he was doing analysis had something to do with Joe's death?

[Lemonelon]

I'm going to vote Walin on this round. He sided with Joe pretty quickly for a D1 lynch when we had no real suspicions. I'm glad I vote cycle 1, as I was PMing with Joe and asked him if he was an elim to which he said no. Has me sort of paranoid now about trusting PMs. 

[DeTess]

Another piece I want to quickly post is a quick analysis of how the votes developed on C1.

Joe kicked things off with a vote on Jondesu, which was backed up by Straw and Striker. After that BR was the first to vote on Joe.

C1 Vote tally 1:

Joe: BR

Jondesu: Joe, Straw, Striker

The next important vote that happened was Joe retracting his vote on Jondesu. Straw was the next one to switch his vote from Jondesu to Joe, leading to the following situation:

C1 Vote tally 2:

Joe: BR, Straw

Jondesu: Striker

At this point, Joe is leading the vote, though only by the margin of a single vote. Drake quickly followed with another vote for Joe, which put him squarely ion the lead. Only at this point did Jondesu add in a vote on Joe. The final vote on him was made by Roadwalker, but he changed his mind again after Joe's defense. Finally, a couple fo minutes before turnover, Walin added last vote onto Jondesu.

C1 Vote tally 3:

Joe: BR, Straw, Drake, Jondesu

Jondesu: Striker, Walin

Now, lets see what we can learn from this order of events. BR was the first to vote on Joe,m and she made the vote in such a way that she could have backed off later if she wanted to. she didn't though. This suggests that she is likely village, as it is rare for one elim to be voting on another and keeping her vote there in a situation such as this. Straw was the one to put Joe in the lead by switching votes, so he's pretty much cleared in my mind, as that's the one vote an elim would almost never be making.

After that, we get Drake and Jondesu. Drake is also probably village as his vote solidified the vote on Joe, though it could be that at that point the elims had already given up on Joe. I doubt that though. The fourth and fifth votes are where traditionally the elims might be starting to add votes onto their own. Jondesu however has the advantage that it seemed like Joe wanted to get him lynched, and the elims would probably not fake such a move on C1, where it is very likely to result in either one of them getting lynched, so he's likely village as well.

That leaves roadwalker, who voted and backed off again.This is NAI, as there are both good reasons for a villager or an elim to do what he did.

So, this means that BR, Straw, Drake and Jondesu are most likely village(with Drake being the least likely of the four, and straw the most). This is a huge thing to have C1 as it removes 20% of the likely suspects.

Lastly @TheMightyLopen, @Steeldancer, is it correct that the Unremarkable mob hasn't made a vote this cycle?

[TheMightyLopen]

45 minutes ago, randuir said:

 

Lastly @TheMightyLopen, @Steeldancer, is it correct that the Unremarkable mob hasn't made a vote this cycle?

That is correct.

[Darkness Ascendant]

On Walin. I have honestly have had a bad gut read on him from the start. Not to mention

Quote

Walin: He wanted to bluff that he was an eliminator on day 1, but was convinced otherwise. offered me a role exchange without prompting, has made anti PM Codes with people. Overall read is that of a villager.

From Joe's reads.

Wouldn't take too much mind on this if I hadn't had the gut read, and there wasn't controversy around him.

As for @StrikerEZ

Quote

StrikerEz: Didn't know his role while we were pm'ing. he had to look it up. I read mine as soon as I got mine. I would lynch him for that, since it is possible that he was distracted by a doc link. Eliminator read.

Of course. Joe could have actually planned his death so it would skew our reads on everyone else *strokes chin.

I'm more suspicious of @Straw than striker, when it comes to the possible foul play @randuir brought up, which is highly probable.

Quote

Straw: Apologised for not responding earlier. No read. (You never did get back to me)

Only person with a message in brackets afterwards. *shrugs, only noteworthy thing, could be a joke. 

I am keeping in mind that Joe's reads should not be used as a bible, but I think its noteworthy. I'm thinking a footnote, small script, helvetica. Almost out of sight.

Left its seeds while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains

Anyway. I think @A Joe in the Bush Realised his mistakes and asked Straw to switch votes with a decent reason to. If Straw ends up being an elim, which is still up in the air. I'm not settled on him. Just uneasy.

And may I bring attention to;

Roadwalker hasn't done much this game, and that post just feels off.

and Walin also seems to be pretty adamant that Jond is an elim, however seemed to be surprise when Joe ended up being an elim. 

Joe's play was nothing if not calculated, even if it didn't work out...It really kind of sets the stage for people to play upon in my paranoid mind.

Ramblings aside, succinctly;

Joe's Reads could be useful, however should not be relied upon, they and his attempted plan set the stage for deceit.

Striker appears to be slightly suspicious, but I would not focus on him until he returns from the real world.

Straw is who I am most suspicious of as of now.

Walin is in and out, up and down, I don't know but curious.

---

Just saw @randuir's post, I think Straw may have switched votes as a lost cause thing. Elims might not have a Worldsinger.