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Tracking RAFO


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So I think the best way to go about drafting theories for the Cosmere is to look at what Sanderson has been RAFOing. I think that if we all worked together, we could notice trends in what he keeps secret from us, and make theories from there.

Problem: I haven't been to any convention or release of any sort because I live in Australia and he hasn't done anything there  (yet). So everyone that has been RAFOed and remembers it please post it HERE. That way we can all crack the Cosmere together.

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In theory, I like the idea behind this thread.  In practice, I worry that it will very rapidly become disorganized and difficult to track.

 

I would almost want to suggest opening a new section to the forums - and divide the RAFOs by subject.  Maybe subsectioned by series, cosmere, shard or specific character.  So we would have say, a Stormlight RAFO board, a mistborn one, etc, etc.  But Also a RAFO board for each shard, silverlight, organization, or specific items/characters that cross over, like Nightblood.  Or we could pin the series specific RAFO pages in the forum for that series.

 

Otherwise, this could quickly become a nightmare to sort.

 

But I really like the idea to group the omissions together to look for patterns.

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I can appreciate the enthusiasm behind the idea, and it's a good sentiment - analyze the holes, to try and see what might be hiding inside them. However, theorizing off of RAFOs is a bad idea, for a couple of reasons.

First, Brandon RAFOs to avoid giving information. Part of that is making sure that he doesn't only RAFO things that are significant or relevant. If you ever get a chance to earn a RAFO card, you'll see that there are a couple of reasons Brandon RAFOs questions, only one of which is because he doesn't want to give away the truth. Sometimes, he's RAFOd questions that he's answered in the past (not surprising, he answers a lot of questions). So, just because he's issued a RAFO, doesn't mean there's an important secret hiding behind it.

Second, RAFOs aren't just about questions, they're about topics. Right now, anything on the topic of the Southerner Medallions is pretty much getting RAFOd. Questions that are going both in the right or wrong direction are getting RAFOd, just because of what they're about. Another big topic that I've seen get a lot of RAFOs is how magic systems will interact with one another. Those get quite detailed and complex, and many times are beyond where the books have developed our understanding. So, a lot of those will get RAFOd pretty much off the bat, not because Brandon is saving that for a specific reveal in a crossover book, but because he doesn't have time to fully explain every possible interaction. I think, if you pulled all the RAFOs together, you'd see some patterns, but it would be that the topics Brandon won't discuss are either complicated (Cognitive Shadow details) or relevant to future books (What the Oathpact is, how to make Southerner medallions).

Third, RAFOs are not information coming from Brandon. They are information coming from us, the readers and fans. I'm gonna go back before Brandon, to the original author of the Wheel of Time series, Robert Jordan. RAFO was his calling card, which Brandon inherited. One thing that bugged fans for years was the death of one character, Asmodean, because the readers didn't learn at the time who killed him. (I think it was Book 4 when he died, but I'm not sure.) It took, like, nine books to finally reveal; it was one of Brandon's books, after Jordan died, when we actually learned the answer. But for years and years, the fans had been super up in arms, asked a ton of questions, and got RAFOd all day long. In the end, when we found out whodunit, it was revealed as a throwaway line from another character. No big secret, no overarching plot implications. Just a small secret that the fans were obsessed over. It had a disproportionate amount of questions about it, but hey, as fans, we're allowed to focus on stuff like that. I'm bringing it up because the questions brought to Brandon are from fans, often built on theories. Getting a RAFO isn't a validation of a theory; it's Brandon declining to comment on a theory, which could be for any number of reasons. Because questions are often reflections of theories, you're not able to get any new information out of a RAFO, you're not going to be able to build a new theory off of that. Look to where the theories come from in the first place. My RAFO card came from, "Are the Cognitive Shadows on Braize the mythological Shades of the Knights Radiant?" We can't get new information from that; there's nowhere new to go with a theory that wasn't part of my original theory. But the theory itself came from the references in the Stormlight Archive, both the mythology and legends and the turns of phrase used by characters. That's where you'll find actual secrets, by looking in the books, not by looking at RAFOs.

All that being said, I know where you're coming from, and there have been several surprising RAFOs (Who Taln actually is, whether or not Hoid has burned his lerasium bead), which have prompted many theories. Those are few and far between, so gathering all RAFOs wouldn't really help identify those. I'd say, read through Theoryland, looking for any RAFOs that seem surprising (and aren't out-of-date). That would probably be a better use of your time than aggregating all the RAFOs and looking for patterns, which will really only reveal that Brandon doesn't want to talk about future plot points.

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I agree with @Pagerunner on this. Statistics melts under the burden of assumptions, and assigning a predetermined motive to a RAFO is wild congecture most of the time; and ultimately, the discovery in the book is far more satisfying than announcing "there is a 57% chance Hoid will fight with Kelsier again". I suggest getting a WoB on a suggest brings far more satisfaction. It has for me.

Edited by 1stBondsmith
Grammar
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I'd been considering the potential for mining novellas. For example, with Edgedancer, I know he wanted to make sure he got a certain character's development "on screen" before Oathbringer came out. Because Edgedancer seemed to have a lot of relatively big reveals, it made me wonder what other developments needed to be set up before Oathbringer. (Info on Ishar, Taln and his pancakes, etc.) Same goes for Secret History.

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A lot of times that a question gets RAFO'd can also have to do with the question itself. I have noticed that when someone asks a "gimme info" question (like the aforementioned "why was hoid drinking perfume" or something like "will kaladin die") he often won't answer.  Not only can they be spoilery but it doesn't show much thought being put into the question or theory. You just want an answer to a mystery he has created. 

Better to ask a question that shows you have thought and formulated and take the evidence and show him this. I have never gotten a RAFO despite asking questions that are pretty deep into shard theory (asking about Harmony splitting, and Adonalsium's intent) but both times I included in my question why I thought it was the way it was, showing I wasn't lazily info grabbing.  (And people told me they had gotten rafo's on similar questions in the past). 

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