The Diagram: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

[ccstat]

We know from the Geranid interlude in WoK that the act of recording observations about spren, such as height or luminosity for flamespren, locks them into the observed state. Simply making the measurement isn't enough, nor is simply writing down an estimate. We also know that the cognitive realm in general responds to the way it is thought about, with the geography reshaping itself around the collective thoughts and beliefs that people hold.

So what happens when someone has a full day of deific intelligence, applies that thinking to the state of the world and the course of future events, then writes all of their conclusions down? I postulate that something Realmatic is going on with the Diagram, such that by virtue of being recorded it has directly constrained the possibilities available. Some events proceed exactly as predicted, while others deviate to a degree, but I suspect that the accuracy would be far worse had the Diagram not been physically recorded. That is, Taravangian would have gotten more things wrong since the channels of probability hadn't been locked into place.

Iimagine two scenarios. In one, Taravangian died immediately after writing everything down, the organization he commands never gets instated to pursue the goals he outlines. In the other, he writes nothing down but manages to remember everything he planned, passing orders verbally to his followers. In which scenario would more of the  Diagram's predictions come true?

This reasoning leads me to wonder, then, whether the event of writing the Diagram was inherently a benefit or a harm to the world of Roshar. Those who later seek to implement it are clearly working at cross purposes to our protagonists, but I wonder whether the enhanced predictability of events due to the Diagram's existence is helping or hurting Kaladin and company.

It also makes me wonder what counts as "recording." Would storing a memory in a coppermind count? If Geranid writes down a bunch of flame spren characteristics but then hits her head and has short-term memory loss, does forgetting what those numbers refer to release the spren in the same way that erasing the numbers would? What about if she dies?

Edited January 30, 2017 by ccstat

[Spoolofwhool]

This is an interesting thought. I don't think this is the case though. In any case, I disagree with your initial premise that Taravangian had full deific knowledge. I don't think he was anywhere close to there, instead had the knowledge comparable to that someone with eidetic memory would have after a lifetime of studying. 

In any case, I don't think the future works the same way as the Cognitive and can be constrained like how you describe. In any case, I don't believe he saw the future in any regard, and what he did would be no different essentially than  what a storm warden does to predict a highstorm with math, and I don't think know writing down the dates traps the coming of the highstorms.

For your two scenarios, with the first little would've happened since I took Taravangian on another high-intelligence day to crack the code on the Diagram and for the second nothing would've happened since Taravangian wouldn't have remembered anything. 

[ccstat]

To clarify, I am not suggesting that Mr. T wrote down a possible future, and in doing so forced that future to happen. Rather, I think that in order to arrive at his predictions he also wrote down specific observations about many current world conditions (including, as we've seen in the epigraphs, various things about the Unmade). In this way he fixed the initial conditions, which would have otherwise been more varied/erratic. The number of possible futures is constrained not by his predictions, which are logical extrapolations of how the initial conditions will interact, but by the current observations that would have locked spren and Shadesmar into a given state. In this way the degrees of freedom are reduced, making his predictions more likely to be correct.

As far as the initial intelligence on Diagram Day, I am not suggesting Shard-level awareness. Perhaps my use of "deific" was misleading. I definitely think that he was enhanced to a more-than-mortal level. It was not only his knowledge (as your proposed eidetic octogenarian would have) but also his ability to make intuitive leaps and process the amount of information before him.

Regarding the scenarios--in the first one, you are correct that nothing happens if there is no Realmatic effect of writing the diagram. Since nobody knows what it means or works to implement it, events proceed as usual, and some of the predictions (such as highstorm dates) would likely remain accurate. But if there is a Realmatic effect, then the accuracy of the predictions increases due to the constrained initial conditions.

In the second scenario, I'm proposing an alternate version of events where Mr. T's capacity doesn't fluctuate the same way, and he is actually able to recall everything (perhaps at varying levels to match the canon version of his intelligence?). The key difference is that the Diagram in this version does not exist in a discrete form outside his memory, and wouldn't have the proposed Realmatic effects.

Edited January 30, 2017 by ccstat

[+robardin]

"Mr. T"? Really? LOL. I love it. Go on and put that in the Roshar jokes thread, that Taravangian looks back on his "worst" days and shakes his head, saying to himself, "I pity the fool!"

I don't know if it's related to "locking in spren", or if his Day Of Extreme Brilliance was indeed like a thing of gods, but I do agree that I feel like the Diagram is more than a little bit self-fulfilling, because so much of it was built on previous conclusions in the Diagram. While some of the excerpts we see from it allow for a choice between two possibilities - for example, if Dalinar "follows the path of the warlord" he could be "a great ally" for the Diagram's vision, otherwise, he must be removed - most of them are pretty firm, and it is all derived from the fundamental POV that Taravangian is the necessary agent. The Diagram ultimately is one ultra-genius' map of How Taravangian Can Preserve Mankind Through The Final Desolation.

The conclusion, or direction, that "you must be king, of everything" sounds remarkably similar to "I will unite instead of divide; I will bring men together", the Second Ideal of the Bondsmiths. Yet even though the Diagram predicts the return of the Knights Radiant, it never considers that perhaps the insight that there must be "a king of everything" does not mean that "Mr. T" should endeavor to be that King of Everything.

See how on some of his most brilliant days, Mr. T is issuing such impractically inhuman suggestions like forced breeding/sterilization programs that they've concluded his decrees on those days should not be followed until 48 hours have passed. That should clue them in that on that Greatest Day of Brilliant Days he might also have laid out some inhumanly bad course of action that may not be the best idea, one that's leading them to bleed people to death to collect death rattles and lie to create a Truthless assassin with an Honorblade and so on. But it hasn't.

Edited January 30, 2017 by robardin

[Yezrien]

 This is a really interesting idea. I've been wondering why the whole quantum-observation-measurement thing was introduced, and how that concept might be relevant to the story at large. All I came up with was Axies, since he's also making quasi-scientific study of spren, and writing down information about them.

But the Diagram connection is a lot more interesting. If Taravangian's predictions are as accurate as they seem to be, then they might be comparable to direct measurements. And since many of his conclusions concern spren (either directly, about the Unmade, or indirectly, like his comments on the Radiants), they could have a similar binding effect. It makes me wonder if writing down the death rattles is significant, too.

The really interesting question, though, is whether Taravangian knew about all this. If writing down his predictions really had some direct impact on reality, did he do that on purpose?

Oh, and as we all know, the phrase "deific intelligence" can only be interpreted as "knowledge equivalent to that of an unsplintered Yolen-born Shardholder on a Tuesday." Using it to describe a person whose IQ is vastly beyond human capacity was obviously erroneous, and reprehensibly misleading. Shame on you!

[ccstat]

Thanks for the feedback, all. I did ask Brandon about this at Boskone this weekend, and got a "sort of yes." response. 

Quote

 

Q: We know that recording things can lock spren into position in the cognitive realm. Does the existence of the written Diagram have a significant Realmatic effect.
A: The Diagram has Realmatic significance.

Q: Did Taravangian know that when he wrote it?

A: Define “know.” On the same level perhaps that a table on Roshar knows it’s a table.

Along with the quote, his body language and tone gave me the impression that my theory could be partially or tangentially correct, but that it isn't a primary function or purpose of the Diagram.

[cometaryorbit]

On 1/30/2017 at 3:05 PM, Spoolofwhool said:

This is an interesting thought. I don't think this is the case though. In any case, I disagree with your initial premise that Taravangian had full deific knowledge. I don't think he was anywhere close to there, instead had the knowledge comparable to that someone with eidetic memory would have after a lifetime of studying.

The knowledge itself might not be superhuman, but to do everything he did in just one day - not just deduce the stuff about the future, the Unmade etc., but invent a whole new language too (and probably more stuff given how little of the Diagram we've seen) - I think is significantly beyond human potential, even of someone like Leonardo da Vinci. Each of the individual things he came up with might be well within what a smart human could do, but so much in so little time, and with such a high accuracy, I think is just too much.

And Adrotagia talks about how Diagram Day was ridiculously beyond the smartest end of his 'normal' intelligence fluctuations.

On 1/30/2017 at 4:26 PM, robardin said:

That should clue them in that on that Greatest Day of Brilliant Days he might also have laid out some inhumanly bad course of action that may not be the best idea, one that's leading them to bleed people to death to collect death rattles and lie to create a Truthless assassin with an Honorblade and so on. But it hasn't.

I don't think they're dumb enough not to have considered it. Ch. 79 WOR epigraph -

Quote

	"Q: For what essential must we strive? A: The essential of preservation, to shelter a seed of humanity through the coming storm. Q: What cost must we bear? A: The cost is irrelevant. Mankind must survive. Our burden is that of the species, and all other considerations are but dust by comparison."

They know perfectly well that the Diagram may, probably will, lead them to inhuman courses of action. It's just not considered relevant.

Mr. T's lack of compassion (or empathy) when super-smart doesn't mean he will randomly insert pointless cruelty into plans, but that suffering won't deter him from choosing the otherwise most certain/efficient/whatever plan.

That's morally wrong in my view, but for someone who accepts the Diagramists' premise that "The cost is irrelevant", it's entirely rational. So long as the Diagramists trust that Mr. T's goal was genuinely to produce a plan that saves humanity, Mr. T's demonstrated lack of compassion doesn't provide any basis not to trust the Diagram.

[Spoolofwhool]

3 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

The knowledge itself might not be superhuman, but to do everything he did in just one day - not just deduce the stuff about the future, the Unmade etc., but invent a whole new language too (and probably more stuff given how little of the Diagram we've seen) - I think is significantly beyond human potential, even of someone like Leonardo da Vinci. Each of the individual things he came up with might be well within what a smart human could do, but so much in so little time, and with such a high accuracy, I think is just too much.

And Adrotagia talks about how Diagram Day was ridiculously beyond the smartest end of his 'normal' intelligence fluctuations.

I never said he wasn't above human intelligence, which he clearly was. I just said that he didn't possess knowledge above human capabilities. All the tangential information wasnt in your response as nothing I said regarded my opinion on that matter.

[cometaryorbit]

OK sorry, I misunderstood.

I still do think that what Taravangian figured out on Diagram Day is probably beyond what anyone else on Roshar in the current era could know, even with a lifetime to work on it.

I don't think it was more knowledge than a human brain could hold, or even necessarily that any particular conclusion he came to was flatly beyond human ability (though it's entirely possible), but I think his accuracy rate was beyond what human intelligence could do (yes, small discrepancies are appearing, but they are very small).

 

EDIT: And I don't know that the analogy to divine/Shardic knowledge is that far off, either. Even Shards don't seem to know everything instantly -- (Major Mistborn First Trilogy spoilers)

Spoiler

Sazed's mind was greatly expanded on Ascending to Harmony, but he still needed a source of knowledge (his copperminds) to work off of, and even after fixing the world he writes as if he still is working stuff out.

I doubt the Nightwatcher could give Mr. T full Shardic-level intelligence, but he could easily be a somewhat lesser case of the same basic phenomenon.

Edited March 3, 2017 by cometaryorbit

[+Extesian]

I love the idea. I don't think it would lock in the future but it may weight it that way amongst the numerous possible futures.

I don't know if it's been suggested but this would explain the Vorin prohibition on foretelling the future. Fear that by predicting it you make it more likely to happen.

And I also don't know if this has been discussed long previously, but could the way Mr T operates is through boosted connection? At his most brilliant, he sees connections like a Shard and has the intelligence to understand it, at his lower intelligence points he has strong connections to everything and is only simple enough to feel rather than understand? 

[ccstat]

12 minutes ago, Extesian said:

 this would explain the Vorin prohibition on foretelling the future. Fear that by predicting it you make it more likely to happen.

Oooo. That is a great thought! 

I'll have to think about the Connection idea some more. It's a plausible explanation, but feels a bit unlikely to me at first glance.